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LAXintl
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Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:49 pm

Hot on the heals of Sun Country, Frontier Airlines has filed its own IPO prospectus. Looking at raising $100mil.

SEC filing
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 056ds1.htm
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SumChristianus
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:52 pm

In this environment? Or is it just a quick way to gain cash?

At least we'll finally get to see their real financials. I'm interested (once we get back to something like normalcy if there even is such a thing) how they compare against Spirit and Allegiant. My gut feeling is not as well given their churn and burn route strategy... but at present, we do have very little to base any analysis on.
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LAXintl
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:58 pm

Indigo Partners the owners of Frontier since 2013 probably looking to cash out portion of their somewhat longheld investment.

They purchased Frontier for mere $36mil cash plus the assumption of $109m in debt from Republic.
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UPNYGuy
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Mon Mar 08, 2021 11:07 pm

If they go ipo, anyone think this might set them up for a potential future merger? I have long wondered why NK and F9 haven’t tied up.
 
luv2cattlecall
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:35 am

Great timing... Tons of people anxious to invest saved up money in "rebound stocks" and the general consensus is that ULCCs are going to be doing well. Plus currently any soft financials might be easier to overlook due to Covid, vs in a few years when they're competing with the other airlines (including Breeze, Avelo, and a growing NK/G4) and low margins would be given a more critical eye.
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:42 am

Will Sun Country or F9 be a good buy when it goes public? Looking to seek more airline stocks.
 
pranav7478
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 5:40 am

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Will Sun Country or F9 be a good buy when it goes public? Looking to seek more airline stocks.

im planning on buying a little bit of sncy mainly because of their amazon business
Planes I have flown on: CRJ-900, E175, E190, A319, A320, A321, A330-200, 717, 737-700, 737-800, 747-400, 747-8I, 757-200, 767-300, 777-200, 777-300(ER), 787-8, 787-9
Airlines I have flown on: AI, AS, BA, DL, 6E, 9W, B6, KE, SQ, WN, UA, US, VA
 
rph99
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 6:15 am

UPNYGuy wrote:
If they go ipo, anyone think this might set them up for a potential future merger? I have long wondered why NK and F9 haven’t tied up.


It’s my most fervent wish...as long as the F9 brand supersedes Spirit.
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:58 am

How is F9 doing overall compared to other airlines? Any routes doing very well?
 
isp2
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:05 am

rph99 wrote:
UPNYGuy wrote:
If they go ipo, anyone think this might set them up for a potential future merger? I have long wondered why NK and F9 haven’t tied up.


It’s my most fervent wish...as long as the F9 brand supersedes Spirit.


I wouldn’t take F9’s latest attempt at an IPO too lightly. Merger mania was the name of the game 10-15 years ago, but from my understanding - although they get a bad rap with their product - they have a pretty confident leadership group in their top floor suites. I speak with Airport Execs regularly, and they all tell me the pandemic has changed Barry Biffle quite a bit. The vibe I get is that they want to be stand alone and a long term growth airline. I also hear there is no love lost between the F9 and NK folks.

If you look at their current fleet and order book, it is very impressive compared to the rest of the US majors based on their comparative size. I’ve always said I wouldn’t fly them as a business guy - but business is dead. I’m actually willing to give them a chance when I take my family on vacation in June. Their operational performance - which was dead last in almost every metric 3/4/5 years ago (a big deal to me if I’m taking the parents, wife, and kids on a vacation) - has consistently been top 3-4 of late.

I’m very curious to see how things play out for them in DEN (they were always known as Denver’s Hometown Airline) - but public press releases from DIA pre-pandemic indicated that they were going to be squeezed from their longtime home in the A Concourse as Delta was encroaching. Who knows what will happen there now as the COVID recovery continues.

F9 - like every airline - seems to be surviving this mess of a pandemic by dumping capacity into places where people can be socially distanced and enjoy the great outdoors comfortably (think PHX, the Rockies / National Parks, and Florida). Folks I’ve talked to in Sky Harbor, TPA, MCO, and especially MIA - are really gung-ho about F9 prospects moving forward. F9 apparently has some talented people running those cities. I never ask the folks at DIA about F9 anymore... lots of history there and it just isn’t worth it.

I’m very skeptical that this IPO is just about raising $100 million though. Airlines have been losing millions of dollars every day for an entire year. There must be something more to this - me thinks it is as a successful standalone, and $100M is just the tip of the iceberg.

Time will tell!
 
BritishB747
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 11:08 am

pranav7478 wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Will Sun Country or F9 be a good buy when it goes public? Looking to seek more airline stocks.

im planning on buying a little bit of sncy mainly because of their amazon business


My thoughts exactly. Given that a quarter of their fleet (I believe) are contracting for Amazon, they have doubtless maintained a steady income over the past year when compared to their competitors. With the Amazon contract I think they will be in a good shape going forward.

I assume no date for the IPO has been released yet?
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av8tiongeek
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:42 pm

The IPO market is hot at the moment. Considering many believe FRNT is an M&A target perhaps the potential buyer(s) wants a true valuation rather enter a bidding war with Indigo.
 
orlandocfi
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 2:31 pm

av8tiongeek wrote:
The IPO market is hot at the moment. Considering many believe FRNT is an M&A target perhaps the potential buyer(s) wants a true valuation rather enter a bidding war with Indigo.


Absolutely. The prospect of merger activity was just discussed on CNBC this morning. I believe we will see a merger this year in the LCC segment especially with Breeze and Avelo possibly adding competition to the market this year.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 3:28 pm

UPNYGuy wrote:
If they go ipo, anyone think this might set them up for a potential future merger? I have long wondered why NK and F9 haven’t tied up.


NK and F9 both are A320 family operators, but they don't match up on engine type or even philosophy. NK tends to compete on busy routes and is conservative with route expansion, while F9 goes all out. Also, F9 prefers the sale-leaseback route, while NK owns about 2/3 of its fleet (SY, since it has been discussed, is also preferring to own aircraft now). Also, with customer service, NK is trying to improve its image; a few years ago, it hired Disney to improve that part. NK hasn't really done so.

To me, for a merger to work, the NK philosophy would have to prevail. As for the F9 fleet, the A320/A321 fleet would likely be returned to lessors, while the A20N/A21N fleet would be transferred to JA/WJ, Y4/Q6, or W6/5W (Indigo Partners placed a group-wide order for A20N/A21N frames).

I don't see SY as a merger option since Amazon has stakes in both 8C and SY. Instead, I see SY trying to get 73H frames on the cheap. (The current status on the SY fleet, excluding the freighter fleet which for which Amazon is the lessee, is 17 owned, 14 leased.)
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 3:44 pm

av8tiongeek wrote:
The IPO market is hot at the moment. Considering many believe FRNT is an M&A target perhaps the potential buyer(s) wants a true valuation rather enter a bidding war with Indigo.


That second sentence makes no sense. Indigo Partners owns Frontier. Frontier Airlines isn't an M&A target unless Indigo Partners wants a deal. There can be no bidding war with the owner.
 
av8tiongeek
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:07 pm

OK!
 
pranav7478
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 7:39 pm

BritishB747 wrote:
pranav7478 wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Will Sun Country or F9 be a good buy when it goes public? Looking to seek more airline stocks.

im planning on buying a little bit of sncy mainly because of their amazon business


My thoughts exactly. Given that a quarter of their fleet (I believe) are contracting for Amazon, they have doubtless maintained a steady income over the past year when compared to their competitors. With the Amazon contract I think they will be in a good shape going forward.

I assume no date for the IPO has been released yet?

no date yet, but i would expect something announced within the next few months.
i found a link from yesterday that has some details:
https://www.startribune.com/sun-country ... 600031853/
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ScottB
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:06 pm

BritishB747 wrote:
My thoughts exactly. Given that a quarter of their fleet (I believe) are contracting for Amazon, they have doubtless maintained a steady income over the past year when compared to their competitors. With the Amazon contract I think they will be in a good shape going forward.


Without knowing the details of the Amazon contract, I would make no assumptions as to how profitable it might be, or if it even makes money at all. It "generate[s] consistent, positive cash flows" but that is not the same as being profitable. It probably loses less money than flying passengers around in a pandemic, but that's not a high bar to clear. It only runs for six years (extendable to ten) but on the plus side, SY isn't on the hook for owning the aircraft. Amazon isn't exactly known for cutting deals unfavorable to itself, so one should be cautious.
 
USAirKid
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Wed Mar 10, 2021 4:18 am

ScottB wrote:
BritishB747 wrote:
My thoughts exactly. Given that a quarter of their fleet (I believe) are contracting for Amazon, they have doubtless maintained a steady income over the past year when compared to their competitors. With the Amazon contract I think they will be in a good shape going forward.


Without knowing the details of the Amazon contract, I would make no assumptions as to how profitable it might be, or if it even makes money at all. It "generate[s] consistent, positive cash flows" but that is not the same as being profitable. It probably loses less money than flying passengers around in a pandemic, but that's not a high bar to clear. It only runs for six years (extendable to ten) but on the plus side, SY isn't on the hook for owning the aircraft. Amazon isn't exactly known for cutting deals unfavorable to itself, so one should be cautious.


Partly true, but the deal was struck before the pandemic, so it wasn't as if it was a buyers market at the time. (Amazon was also looking at having Mesa fly their 737s, but that never materialized.) Amazon is a tough buyer, but they're also willing to pay for reliable consistent service, and they realize that going too cheap is a way to ultimately hurt themselves in the long run.
 
av8tiongeek
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:25 pm

https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO- ... illion-IPO

Low-cost airline Frontier Group Holdings sets terms for $600 million IPO
Frontier Group Holdings, an ultra low-cost US airline carrier that serves approximately 110 airports, announced terms for its IPO on Tuesday.

The Denver, CO-based company plans to raise $600 million by offering 30 million shares (50% insider) at a price range of $19 to $21. At the midpoint of the proposed range, Frontier Group Holdings would command a fully diluted market value of $4.5 billion.

Frontier is an ultra low-cost carrier that offers flights throughout the US and to select near international destinations in the Americas. As of December 31, 2020, the company had a fleet of 104 narrow-body Airbus A320 family aircraft, and a commitment to purchase 156 A320neo family aircraft by the end of 2028. In 2019 and 2020, Frontier served approximately 23 million and 11 million passengers, respectively, across a network of approximately 110 airports.

Frontier Group Holdings was founded in 1994 and booked $1.3 billion in revenue for the 12 months ended December 31, 2020. It plans to list on the Nasdaq under the symbol ULCC. Citi, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI, BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, Nomura Securities, and UBS Investment Bank are the joint bookrunners on the deal. It is expected to price during the week of March 29, 2021.
 
N757ST
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:19 pm

That seems like a very generous valuation, more then spirit and not much below jetblue.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:28 pm

av8tiongeek wrote:
The Denver, CO-based company plans to raise $600 million by offering 30 million shares (50% insider) at a price range of $19 to $21. At the midpoint of the proposed range, Frontier Group Holdings would command a fully diluted market value of $4.5 billion.


$4.5 Billion exceeds the market cap of Spirit ($3.7 Billion), which has a 50% larger fleet. B6's market cap is $6.1 Billion. Alaska's is $8.5 Billion. (All caps from marketwatch.com today.) Frontier won't be getting my money.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:01 am

IPO debut planned for tomorrow. Lets see how it goes and if they get a pop like Sun Country.
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USAirKid
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:20 am

LAXintl wrote:
IPO debut planned for tomorrow. Lets see how it goes and if they get a pop like Sun Country.


Pops are bad.. that means the pricing of the IPO was wrong and whoever sold the stock didn’t get the maximum return from selling the stock.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:38 pm

Frontier Airlines opened raising $570 million selling 30mil shares giving it a valuation of about $4 billion.

https://www.denverpost.com/2021/04/01/f ... re-travel/
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PA727
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:34 pm

Looks like it went live under the $19 price. On listing, I had it at $18.61, and it's hovered between down 15-20 cents. So we'll see if they get what they're after!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Frontier Airlines files to go public with IPO

Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:57 pm

They got their money. The transaction(s) went at $19. Now you're seeing market trades.

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