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seatback
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Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:40 pm

Seems to me that Delta is willing to lose their shirt in Los Angeles (LAX) with the hopes of gaining market share against AA. AA seems to be very conservative (pulling back) now and post COVID while Delta is striking while it sees an opportunity.

Thoughts?
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:43 pm

AA is putting quite a few widebodies through LAX, so there are some differences in strategy
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:44 pm

What's your source for profitability by hub by carrier?

Have any data on flights (or better, seats or ASMs) by carrier at LAX?
 
seatback
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 4:31 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
What's your source for profitability by hub by carrier?

Have any data on flights (or better, seats or ASMs) by carrier at LAX?


No, but I wish I did. Whether right or wrong, it's my assumption that LAX isn't profitable for anyone...maybe I'm wrong.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:38 pm

Domestically, Delta has brought back a lot of stuff. AA only brought back AUS this month. The only long haul for both airlines from LAX right now is SYD. I know AA is planning to bring back MCO, BNA, FLL, and HND. Is AA planning to bring back more routes besides those in April?
 
Ishrion
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:42 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
Domestically, Delta has brought back a lot of stuff. AA only brought back AUS this month. The only long haul for both airlines from LAX right now is SYD. I know AA is planning to bring back MCO, BNA, FLL, and HND. Is AA planning to bring back more routes besides those in April?


AA LAX-LHR is still set to resume on March 28.
 
ChrisPBacon
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 5:58 pm

AA's strategy relies on their partnership with AS. AS is a big piece of the future at LAX
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:06 pm

DL's focus coming out of COVID looks to be becoming the dominant carrier at LAX. They have the resources to try a route map that AA/UA probably can't sustain.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:56 pm

seatback wrote:
Seems to me that Delta is willing to lose their shirt in Los Angeles (LAX) with the hopes of gaining market share against AA. AA seems to be very conservative (pulling back) now and post COVID while Delta is striking while it sees an opportunity.

Thoughts?


I believe AA said in a Town Hall that most of the LAX domestic network(that wasn't already cut) is returning

Jonnyc said LAX-ATL/BOS/IND/OMA/PDX/RDU/SAT/SEA/STL would be restarting in May

https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1368 ... 63777?s=20
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 6:58 pm

I think a huge difference is AA has Alaska at lax. DL doesn't have that luxury. It's more a place AA can save a little cash during these weird times. I don't think it says anything about dedication or strategies post covid. Delta would do the exact same thing if a partner airline was flying some routes during these times
 
Runway765
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 7:01 pm

When is DL going to launch LAX-ORD? That seems to be a major missing route for them at LAX.
 
gsg013
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:20 pm

Runway765 wrote:
When is DL going to launch LAX-ORD? That seems to be a major missing route for them at LAX.


I dont see DL adding LAX-OR right now, although it could be a good A220 route for the?... Why go up against both UA and AA on LAX-ORD that have hubs on both ends. Lots of competition on the route and pretty low yields for a flight that length. (I almost wonder about DL flying LAX-MDW?) that could be a differentiator, I see LA to Chicago for DL pax as mostly O&D
 
SESGDL
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:37 pm

gsg013 wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
When is DL going to launch LAX-ORD? That seems to be a major missing route for them at LAX.


I dont see DL adding LAX-OR right now, although it could be a good A220 route for the?... Why go up against both UA and AA on LAX-ORD that have hubs on both ends. Lots of competition on the route and pretty low yields for a flight that length. (I almost wonder about DL flying LAX-MDW?) that could be a differentiator, I see LA to Chicago for DL pax as mostly O&D


To "win" in the LA market, DL will eventually need to have a presence on LAX-Chicago. DL will never be able to match offerings of UA, AA and WN, of course, but to be able to truly offer a competitive network from LA, DL will at some point have to try out the market. Similar to waiting for SEA-ORD as long as it did, I eventually could see DL offer something like 4-5x daily A220 service being enough for a business market (whenever it rebounds).

Jeremy
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:28 pm

It would be extremely silly for DL to not add LAX-ORD in the next year or so. It seems like the biggest missing whole in their network. I'm still surprised they added SEA/BOS/RDU-ORD before LAX.

Heck, they even added FLL-LAX before ORD.
 
gwrudolph
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 9:54 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
Domestically, Delta has brought back a lot of stuff. AA only brought back AUS this month. The only long haul for both airlines from LAX right now is SYD. I know AA is planning to bring back MCO, BNA, FLL, and HND. Is AA planning to bring back more routes besides those in April?


Can you imagine what the loss looks like on LAX-SYD right now. AA, DL, and UA operating. When you look at UA’s seat map, for example, there are 36 occupied seats on a 15 hour stage-length with 4 in the cockpit and 10+ flight attendants. Ouch!
 
ATCJesus
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:04 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Domestically, Delta has brought back a lot of stuff. AA only brought back AUS this month. The only long haul for both airlines from LAX right now is SYD. I know AA is planning to bring back MCO, BNA, FLL, and HND. Is AA planning to bring back more routes besides those in April?


Can you imagine what the loss looks like on LAX-SYD right now. AA, DL, and UA operating. When you look at UA’s seat map, for example, there are 36 occupied seats on a 15 hour stage-length with 4 in the cockpit and 10+ flight attendants. Ouch!



Cargo my friend.
 
United1
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:09 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Domestically, Delta has brought back a lot of stuff. AA only brought back AUS this month. The only long haul for both airlines from LAX right now is SYD. I know AA is planning to bring back MCO, BNA, FLL, and HND. Is AA planning to bring back more routes besides those in April?


Can you imagine what the loss looks like on LAX-SYD right now. AA, DL, and UA operating. When you look at UA’s seat map, for example, there are 36 occupied seats on a 15 hour stage-length with 4 in the cockpit and 10+ flight attendants. Ouch!


I am sure all three airlines are not making money the route but have you looked at the airfares...they are through the roof. Artificially because of Australias cap on arrivals...combine that with cargo revenue and they may not be losing as much money we might think.
 
United1
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:10 pm

ATCJesus wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Domestically, Delta has brought back a lot of stuff. AA only brought back AUS this month. The only long haul for both airlines from LAX right now is SYD. I know AA is planning to bring back MCO, BNA, FLL, and HND. Is AA planning to bring back more routes besides those in April?


Can you imagine what the loss looks like on LAX-SYD right now. AA, DL, and UA operating. When you look at UA’s seat map, for example, there are 36 occupied seats on a 15 hour stage-length with 4 in the cockpit and 10+ flight attendants. Ouch!



Cargo my friend.


Cargo is a big part of it...there are some days UA is running a second daily 789 on LAX-SYD just for cargo.
Last edited by United1 on Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Josh76040
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:20 pm

Delta’s LAX expansion is doomed to failure without a partner.
 
jayunited
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:13 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
Can you imagine what the loss looks like on LAX-SYD right now. AA, DL, and UA operating. When you look at UA’s seat map, for example, there are 36 occupied seats on a 15 hour stage-length with 4 in the cockpit and 10+ flight attendants. Ouch!


Australia has capped the number of passengers airlines can carry on each flight, this cap and the fact that there are still thousands of Australians still trying to get home nearly a year after Australia closed its borders has contributed to some very high fares on both arriving and departing flights. In addition to this the amount of cargo shipped to and from Australia hasn't dipped, with so few flights (passenger and cargo) operating between the US and Australia United chose to maintain SFO-SYD-SFO daily service throughout the entire pandemic and last October resumed weekly service LAX-SYD-SYD, along with weekly cargo only flights operating LAX-SYD-LAX.

SESGDL wrote:
To "win" in the LA market, DL will eventually need to have a presence on LAX-Chicago. DL will never be able to match offerings of UA, AA and WN, of course, but to be able to truly offer a competitive network from LA, DL will at some point have to try out the market. Similar to waiting for SEA-ORD as long as it did, I eventually could see DL offer something like 4-5x daily A220 service being enough for a business market (whenever it rebounds).
Jeremy


When people say "win" LA or dominate LA if you don't mind can you put that into a marketshare percentage? The reason I'm asking for a percentage is because I don't believe any one single carrier can dominate or "win" LA, there is simply to many domestic carriers at LAX and the market is to fracture for any single carrier to hit 40% or more of the total domestic marketshare from LAX.

Delta is spending a lot of money in LA. To wrestle the US Olympics away from United Delta volunteered to pay $400 million dollars to sponsor 2028 Olympics, equates to $50 million dollars per year whereas United was only pay $2 million dollars a year. Delta and American are also spending a millions at LAX (which is necessary) to update their facilities. Delta is resuming flights out of LAX at a higher frequency than AA and UA but what are the load factors LA was hit particularly hard during this last wave. If all of these investments only gets Delta to 27% percent of the domestic market share you have to wonder if it is worth it. Especially if after its all over and the dust settles American has 26% of the market, Southwest 18%, United 17%, and the remaining 12% is split up between the remaining domestic carriers. If the race at LAX is still neck and neck between Delta and American once this is over and this industry is well into the recovery one would have to look back and ask if was worth it.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:22 pm

AA and DL are both investing a tremendous amount of money into their facilities at LAX. I don't think either carrier intends to abandon the airport in a significant way, although it certainly is possible that AA may work with AS and B6 to offer codeshare services while DL flies everything on its own metal (or Delta Connection).

Rumor has it that AA's strategy has long been to appeal to Angeleno locals, whilst DL caters more to point of sale in other markets (that is, folks in places like Indianapolis or New Orleans headed to LA for business, leisure or VFR purposes). Then again, DL has slowly but steadily built up service to key markets for LA travelers - like DEN and SJO. I've said it before and will say it again - LAX is going to be very interesting to watch.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:44 pm

AA is going to be relaunching a lot of LAX stuff in earnest starting in May.

Keep in mind unlike Delta, AA is not blocking middle seats. AA has also added a ton more widebody domestic capacity at LAX and continues to do so (MIALAX will see six 777s starting in May mixed with three A321s). Also, AA has easy hubs at PHX and DFW to transfer LAX traffic to and from. Delta doesn't have that.
 
umichman
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:51 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I think a huge difference is AA has Alaska at lax. DL doesn't have that luxury. It's more a place AA can save a little cash during these weird times. I don't think it says anything about dedication or strategies post covid. Delta would do the exact same thing if a partner airline was flying some routes during these times


I don't think that's the main explanation. The AA/AS relationship hasn't really progressed that far yet (benefits are still pretty limited at this point) and there are codesharing limits due to AS/VX merger. If you look at some of the regional routes, DL is serving RNO, SMF, SJC, SFO, FAT, LAS, PSP, PHX, TUS, ABQ, PDX, and BOI right now. AA is only currently operating PHX, LAS, SFO, RNO and codesharing on LAX-BOI. While a number of routes are scheduled to return May 5th, AA hasn't significantly updated their schedule for that date and beyond yet. So it remains to be seen how many will truly return then once they load their May schedule updates. It seems pretty clear DL is being more aggressive about trying to maintain SEA/LAX hubs as their other hubs and focus cities in the east are taking quite a bit longer to have service restored on many routes.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Wed Mar 10, 2021 11:57 pm

Josh76040 wrote:
Delta’s LAX expansion is doomed to failure without a partner.

Actually, because of LAX, it's just a matter of time until DL goes down altogether; seeing what's happening in LAX, they just don't know how to run an airline and should just close shop... /s
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:50 am

ChrisPBacon wrote:
AA's strategy relies on their partnership with AS. AS is a big piece of the future at LAX


AA's revised, post-COVID strategy relies on the partnership with AS and its membership in OW. Before 2020 though, it wasn't a factor and the competitive dynamics of the LAX landscape then (and now) demanded a lot of flying to be loss leading, likely for all the major players.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:54 am

MAH4546 wrote:
AA is going to be relaunching a lot of LAX stuff in earnest starting in May.

Keep in mind unlike Delta, AA is not blocking middle seats. AA has also added a ton more widebody domestic capacity at LAX and continues to do so (MIALAX will see six 777s starting in May mixed with three A321s). Also, AA has easy hubs at PHX and DFW to transfer LAX traffic to and from. Delta doesn't have that.


LAX is really not set up as a transfer point for domestic flying and the US3 + WN, AS, and B6 don't leverage their LAX footprint that way. It's essentially an O&D market, and a very big one, with transfers focused more on TPAC and Hawaii than anything else. You're right that PHX and DFW are the transfer points for AA but not necessarily for connections over LAX. And DL has SLC, MSP, and DTW. PHX is not well situated for connections either. It's a large O&D market and serves the Southwest and connections to Hawaii. SLC is much more of a connecting hub for DL for East-West traffic, similar to what UA does in DEN but sized differently.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 12:56 am

Josh76040 wrote:
Delta’s LAX expansion is doomed to failure without a partner.


Hmmm...don't think so. I'm not a Delta fanboy but DL's strategy at LAX is very similar to JFK. They've got no partner at JFK and built out a very sizable, and profitable footprint there, at least until COVID.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:02 am

tphuang wrote:
DL's focus coming out of COVID looks to be becoming the dominant carrier at LAX. They have the resources to try a route map that AA/UA probably can't sustain.


Or don't want. UA doesn't really need LAX to be big. It just needs it to be profitable enough to serve the markets it needs to in order to be competitive with the corporate market. UA is the one with the edge on the West Coast, because it has SFO, which is a huge source of profit for UA and sits in a market a lot less diluted than LAX, notably for TPAC, but also TATL. So it is not a matter of sustainability (for UA, anyway, at LAX). UA at LAX is more about making sure it does not erode yields/margins at SFO. AA needs to have a footprint in LAX big enough as a consequence of having nothing else on the West Coast (at least until SEA + AS) of size. As for DL, it has done well in SEA, but the TPAC hub there is a mixed bag at best. A lot of the routes didn't work daily, rely on smaller jets like the 767-300ER and while the market is big to Asia from SEA, it is nothing compared to SFO and LAX. So there's a lot more to it than just throwing dollars and spend around as you suggest. Delta's finances are stronger than AA's or UA's, yes, but it is also sustaining huge losses and does not have unlimited resources.
 
n9801f
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:11 am

AA is very strong where it counts from LAX. Excellent presence in top $ OD's.

And besides being a force to contend with in LAX itself, AA has a 3 structural advantages over DL in greater LAX:

1) AA is much stronger than DL from satellite airports in SNA (wealthy) and BUR (entertainment industry) and ONT
2) AA's nearby PHX hub is a big asset for serving California and gives AA critical mass / synergies in California that DL's more distant hubs just can't match
3) AS strong presence in both LAX and the satellites furthers AA's domestic strength in LA-area overall

A final point at LAX itself is that OneWorld's hubs in LHR, TYO, HKG, SYD, etc. are a far more valuable portfolio than SkyTeam's in CDG, AMS, SEL, OTP, etc.

So although I could imagine DL dreaming of flying LAX-ORD one day, I suspect a few folks on Amon Carter Boulevard and in Willis Tower would respond to that and could ultimately win that battle. I just can't see DL ever being strong enough in LAX to lever into the strong hubs AA and UA have at ORD.

LAX is structurally fragmented. Other carriers have compelling, enduring strengths elsewhere that will anchor them in top markets at LAX. And LAX is too far south to compete with faster US-Northeast Asia journey times available to business customers via SFO. So it's unlikely that DL could have a "traditional" hub in LAX, though it could do well there with an AA-style setup focused in top OD's where it has other network strengths.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:19 am

Midwestindy wrote:
seatback wrote:
Seems to me that Delta is willing to lose their shirt in Los Angeles (LAX) with the hopes of gaining market share against AA. AA seems to be very conservative (pulling back) now and post COVID while Delta is striking while it sees an opportunity.

Thoughts?


I believe AA said in a Town Hall that most of the LAX domestic network(that wasn't already cut) is returning

Jonnyc said LAX-ATL/BOS/IND/OMA/PDX/RDU/SAT/SEA/STL would be restarting in May

https://twitter.com/xJonNYC/status/1368 ... 63777?s=20


I know this has been discussed elsewhere, but the two airlines who serve CMH from LAX are those discussed in this thread. It appears AA isn't bringing it back, while DL's future is uncertain (it shows as a destination on the route map).

Given the market was 3x daily in Summer 2019 (2x AA, 1x DL), I can't believe they'd both permanently axe the route.
 
n9801f
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:20 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:

LAX is really not set up as a transfer point for domestic flying...
...It's essentially an O&D market, and a very big one, with transfers focused more on TPAC and Hawaii than anything else.



:checkmark:

Well said.

This is the nub of why LAX can't be a great hub.

It's too far off the great-circle path for big US-Asia connecting flows, and it's too far in the southwest corner to have many domestic spokes.

The story is the top OD markets - they'll be (permanently) structurally fragmented by strengths of DL's competitors on the other end of the LAX routes.
 
Runway765
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:21 am

n9801f wrote:
So although I could imagine DL dreaming of flying LAX-ORD one day, I suspect a few folks on Amon Carter Boulevard and in Willis Tower would respond to that and could ultimately win that battle. I just can't see DL ever being strong enough in LAX to lever into the strong hubs AA and UA have at ORD.


Just like they did with NK?

AA/UA didn’t stop DL from launching BOS/SEA-ORD. How can they serve every other major market from LAX EXCEPT Chicago. This is one of the biggest holes in the US aviation market. They’ll throw a A223 on this route eventually.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:27 am

SESGDL wrote:

To "win" in the LA market, DL will eventually need to have a presence on LAX-Chicago.


Why? Is LAX-CHI a uniquely large O&D route? (It isn't, among LAX's ~190 destinations. I'm just pointing out your deficient logic.)
 
rjbesikof
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:35 am

Could we see DL take over KE on one of the LAX-ICN frequencies. Furthermore, could we see DL add LAX-MNL?
 
n9801f
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:38 am

Runway765 wrote:
n9801f wrote:
So although I could imagine DL dreaming of flying LAX-ORD one day, I suspect a few folks on Amon Carter Boulevard and in Willis Tower would respond to that and could ultimately win that battle. I just can't see DL ever being strong enough in LAX to lever into the strong hubs AA and UA have at ORD.


Just like they did with NK?

AA/UA didn’t stop DL from launching BOS/SEA-ORD. How can they serve every other major market from LAX EXCEPT Chicago. This is one of the biggest holes in the US aviation market. They’ll throw a A223 on this route eventually.


NK is playing a different game than the other 3. NK skims large OD markets with extremely low fare traffic. This works for NK against all 3 big players, in many places.

And sure, DL could "throw an A223 on the route" for a while. But powerful network fundamentals will make it much harder for DL to be viable on LAX-ORD over the long run. And DL shareholders should wonder why it doesn't redeploy the airplane to a route where DL holds better cards to win.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:43 am

rjbesikof wrote:
Could we see DL take over KE on one of the LAX-ICN frequencies. Furthermore, could we see DL add LAX-MNL?


No and no. Or at least, very unlikely. LAX-MNL is a long, thin, mostly VFR route and even with the investment in call centers and other major operations centers for some big US companies, the yields would likely be poor on this route and all Delta can use would be the A350 (not the best route and use for its premium long haul aircraft and one that it does not have that many to spare, as this route would require 2 frames). As for the ICN route, it's possible, just like DL tried to operate on its own metal to CDG and AMS, but the question here is why?

Asia is tough for US carriers out of LAX. The market is saturated, there are often multiple competitors on the same route, and connections aren't optimal. This is why AA, DL, and UA fly very few routes (all of this of course in normalized, non pandemic times) to Asia from LAX broadly. Pre-pandemic it was:

AA - HND (and NRT too for a time), HKG, PVG, PEK
UA - PVG, NRT
DL- PVG, HND

You see the pattern with just these routes.
 
Runway765
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:00 am

n9801f wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
n9801f wrote:
So although I could imagine DL dreaming of flying LAX-ORD one day, I suspect a few folks on Amon Carter Boulevard and in Willis Tower would respond to that and could ultimately win that battle. I just can't see DL ever being strong enough in LAX to lever into the strong hubs AA and UA have at ORD.


Just like they did with NK?

AA/UA didn’t stop DL from launching BOS/SEA-ORD. How can they serve every other major market from LAX EXCEPT Chicago. This is one of the biggest holes in the US aviation market. They’ll throw a A223 on this route eventually.


NK is playing a different game than the other 3. NK skims large OD markets with extremely low fare traffic. This works for NK against all 3 big players, in many places.

And sure, DL could "throw an A223 on the route" for a while. But powerful network fundamentals will make it much harder for DL to be viable on LAX-ORD over the long run. And DL shareholders should wonder why it doesn't redeploy the airplane to a route where DL holds better cards to win.


Like they did with the BOS and SEA hubs? Are they winning in either one? No.

What are these “powerful network fundamentals” that make Chicago the only major US market DL cannot serve from LAX, when they serve every other hub and even their focus cities?
 
n9801f
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Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:20 am

Runway765 wrote:

What are these “powerful network fundamentals” that make Chicago the only major US market DL cannot serve from LAX, when they serve every other hub and even their focus cities?


Chicago has large hub operations for 3 airlines - UA, AA, and WN. Plus NK skims many of the largest OD's. I can't think of many more competitive markets than Chicago, especially in relation to its size.

The fundamentals are that for UA and AA, ORD-LAX is from a strong hub to a weak hub. But for DL, LAX-ORD is from a weak hub to a brutally competitive spoke.

The Chicago-LAX pie is diced into many pieces. And Chicago market sizes are appreciably smaller than those at NYC, for instance. But UA and AA have better reasons to be on LAX-ORD - and ultimately more staying power - than DL does. DL will be fighting for a toehold in a structurally well-served market with relatively fewer network strengths.

DL can try LAX-ORD if it wants, but it will be swimming upstream in a strong current.
 
Runway765
Posts: 420
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:28 am

n9801f wrote:
Runway765 wrote:

What are these “powerful network fundamentals” that make Chicago the only major US market DL cannot serve from LAX, when they serve every other hub and even their focus cities?


Chicago has large hub operations for 3 airlines - UA, AA, and WN. Plus NK skims many of the largest OD's. I can't think of many more competitive markets than Chicago, especially in relation to its size.

The fundamentals are that for UA and AA, ORD-LAX is from a strong hub to a weak hub. But for DL, LAX-ORD is from a weak hub to a brutally competitive spoke.

The Chicago-LAX pie is diced into many pieces. And Chicago market sizes are appreciably smaller than those at NYC, for instance. But UA and AA have better reasons to be on LAX-ORD - and ultimately more staying power - than DL does. DL will be fighting for a toehold in a structurally well-served market with relatively fewer network strengths.

DL can try LAX-ORD if it wants, but it will be swimming upstream in a strong current.


Again, how is this any different from BOS or SEA? It’s not like those are powerful DL hubs
 
n9801f
Posts: 467
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:48 am

Runway765 wrote:

how is this any different from BOS or SEA? It’s not like those are powerful DL hubs


Simple.

SEA - doesn't have 3 large airline hubs the way Chicago does. DL mostly just has to contend with AS.

BOS - is completely different than ORD. ORD has huge UA and AA hubs that make ORD a "hostile territory" spoke for DL to enter. The much smaller DL and B6 BOS hubs don't drive the kind of high frequency levels onto BOS-LAX that UA and AA can mount on ORD-LAX. So UA and AA are less deterred from BOS-LAX than DL is from LAX-ORD.
 
n9801f
Posts: 467
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 3:28 am

Runway765 wrote:
AA/UA didn’t stop DL from launching BOS/SEA-ORD. How can they serve every other major market from LAX EXCEPT Chicago. This is one of the biggest holes in the US aviation market. They’ll throw a A223 on this route eventually.


Regarding ORD-BOS and ORD-SEA.

These are easier targets for DL to enter than ORD-LAX because neither ORD-BOS nor ORD-SEA is a hub-hub route for either AA or UA. So AA and UA have less network strength on ORD-BOS and ORD-SEA than they do on ORD-LAX.

It's hard to fly to someone else' hub. It's especially hard if you try it on a route that is hub-to-hub for your competitor.
 
mpdpilot
Posts: 825
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:44 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:38 am

n9801f wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
AA/UA didn’t stop DL from launching BOS/SEA-ORD. How can they serve every other major market from LAX EXCEPT Chicago. This is one of the biggest holes in the US aviation market. They’ll throw a A223 on this route eventually.


Regarding ORD-BOS and ORD-SEA.

These are easier targets for DL to enter than ORD-LAX because neither ORD-BOS nor ORD-SEA is a hub-hub route for either AA or UA. So AA and UA have less network strength on ORD-BOS and ORD-SEA than they do on ORD-LAX.

It's hard to fly to someone else' hub. It's especially hard if you try it on a route that is hub-to-hub for your competitor.


As someone who flies into Chicago an awful lot on Delta, I feel like a.net seriously underestimates Delta in Chicago. Certainly they are not in the same league as AA, UA, or WN in Chicago, but Chicago is also a massive market.

After all, they don't have to run 12-15 daily flights to be successful. 4-5 flights a day would keep their LAX customers happy and after all, that is what they are going for. They aren't going to be taking a lot of Chicago based travelers away from AA, UA, and WN, but then again they have a sizable operation in Chicago and they aren't trying to win Chicago travelers on ORD-MSP either (Though with the A220 on LAX-ORD, I would certainly take that over a 321/739). They can certainly take some ORD-SYD travelers, but otherwise they aren't going to be taking too many other connecting travelers so we are just talking about O&D.

What LAX-ORD is about for Delta and to a lesser extent AA, UA, and WN is those LAX based travelers that need to go to ORD.
 
onwFan
Posts: 677
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 4:50 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
Could we see DL take over KE on one of the LAX-ICN frequencies. Furthermore, could we see DL add LAX-MNL?


No and no. Or at least, very unlikely. LAX-MNL is a long, thin, mostly VFR route and even with the investment in call centers and other major operations centers for some big US companies, the yields would likely be poor on this route and all Delta can use would be the A350 (not the best route and use for its premium long haul aircraft and one that it does not have that many to spare, as this route would require 2 frames). As for the ICN route, it's possible, just like DL tried to operate on its own metal to CDG and AMS, but the question here is why?

Asia is tough for US carriers out of LAX. The market is saturated, there are often multiple competitors on the same route, and connections aren't optimal. This is why AA, DL, and UA fly very few routes (all of this of course in normalized, non pandemic times) to Asia from LAX broadly. Pre-pandemic it was:

AA - HND (and NRT too for a time), HKG, PVG, PEK
UA - PVG, NRT
DL- PVG, HND

You see the pattern with just these routes.

True, but KE & OZ are merging and both LAX-ICN and JFK-ICN were 4x daily routes, most on A380s. I wouldn’t be surprised to see DL take over maybe 1x daily OZ frequency on these routes once the merger is completed. Within a year or two, I’m sure DL’s TPAC network will look drastically different from what it was pre-covid.
 
n2dru
Posts: 202
Joined: Thu Nov 09, 2017 7:02 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:17 am

mpdpilot wrote:
n9801f wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
AA/UA didn’t stop DL from launching BOS/SEA-ORD. How can they serve every other major market from LAX EXCEPT Chicago. This is one of the biggest holes in the US aviation market. They’ll throw a A223 on this route eventually.


Regarding ORD-BOS and ORD-SEA.

These are easier targets for DL to enter than ORD-LAX because neither ORD-BOS nor ORD-SEA is a hub-hub route for either AA or UA. So AA and UA have less network strength on ORD-BOS and ORD-SEA than they do on ORD-LAX.

It's hard to fly to someone else' hub. It's especially hard if you try it on a route that is hub-to-hub for your competitor.


As someone who flies into Chicago an awful lot on Delta, I feel like a.net seriously underestimates Delta in Chicago. Certainly they are not in the same league as AA, UA, or WN in Chicago, but Chicago is also a massive market.

After all, they don't have to run 12-15 daily flights to be successful. 4-5 flights a day would keep their LAX customers happy and after all, that is what they are going for. They aren't going to be taking a lot of Chicago based travelers away from AA, UA, and WN, but then again they have a sizable operation in Chicago and they aren't trying to win Chicago travelers on ORD-MSP either (Though with the A220 on LAX-ORD, I would certainly take that over a 321/739). They can certainly take some ORD-SYD travelers, but otherwise they aren't going to be taking too many other connecting travelers so we are just talking about O&D.

What LAX-ORD is about for Delta and to a lesser extent AA, UA, and WN is those LAX based travelers that need to go to ORD.


Agreed...it would be more about the LA pax than the ORD pax for DL. Similar to how AA flew and intends to restart soon ATLLAX. AA wasn't trying to take Atlanta based travelers from DL (which would be difficult to do, ATLLAX could be considered hub to hub for DL) but taking LA based travelers they already have to ATL. PreCOVID AA was up to 3x daily on ATLLAX going up against DL's 10+ w/widebodies. DL could run a similar schedule to ORD up against UA/AA multiple dailies w/widebodies and WN multiples and coexist fine.
Last edited by n2dru on Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
n9801f
Posts: 467
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 5:23 am

@mpdpilot

Those are good points.

Yes, Chicago is a big market and its proximity to DL hubs in DTW, MSP, and to a lesser extent even ATL makes Chicago a very strong spoke for DL.

4-5x LAX-ORD for DL's FF base in LAX would be fun. Cool even. But I think it's a bridge too far numbers-wise.

That doesn't mean DL couldn't try it. But my money says it wouldn't last that long if they do.

At the end of the day, routes that are strongly aligned with network strengths are most remunerative. This one looks like a near miss to me
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5246
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:18 am

We are in Covid times still. What the airlines are doing right now to survive means nothing about the future. Drawing any conclusions based on airlines in survival mode would be a rookie mistake.

Delta has no partner to rely on in LAX, AA has AS. This is an apples to oranges comparison, its not like AA has abandoned LA.

AA has PHX for all connections. They have no reason to keep LAX up for connections with PHX and any LAX flyers can hop over to PHX to travel anywhere.
 
portola2727
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:12 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:31 am

I mean we'll have to wait to see how the LAX market will be. LAX has multiple infrastructure projects that could drastically change how airlines can expand within the airport. Concourse 0 for WN adds gates that WN could use to expand. The T2-3 remodel adds gates for DL, leading it to expand in T3. T4-5 remodel adds gates for AA and JetBlue. T6 remodel adds gates for Alaska. T9 will add more gates for UA. MSC North/South adds gates for the domestic airlines like NK.
 
portola2727
Posts: 84
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:12 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:33 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
We are in Covid times still. What the airlines are doing right now to survive means nothing about the future. Drawing any conclusions based on airlines in survival mode would be a rookie mistake.

Delta has no partner to rely on in LAX, AA has AS. This is an apples to oranges comparison, its not like AA has abandoned LA.

AA has PHX for all connections. They have no reason to keep LAX up for connections with PHX and any LAX flyers can hop over to PHX to travel anywhere.

Uhh not really. LAX has plenty of nonstop connections to the rest of the US. Going to PHX is usually a last resort, and that too for a destination not served nonstop from LA.
 
Lootess
Posts: 733
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:32 am

Josh76040 wrote:
Delta’s LAX expansion is doomed to failure without a partner.


Boy this is the biggest joke.

Delta thrived at LAX when they dumped Alaska. Didn't need to depend on them on measly routes like LAX-SEA, because they wouldn't offer enough seats on the codeshare so Delta started adding competing services, and slowly the alliance started to dissipate. Now they offer a lot more flights.

Eventually Alaska retreated from all those retaliatory SLC routes.
 
Josh76040
Posts: 41
Joined: Thu May 28, 2020 11:02 am

Re: Delta vs. AA's Strategy at LAX during/post COVID

Thu Mar 11, 2021 7:46 am

Lootess wrote:
Josh76040 wrote:
Delta’s LAX expansion is doomed to failure without a partner.


Boy this is the biggest joke.

Delta thrived at LAX when they dumped Alaska. Didn't need to depend on them on measly routes like LAX-SEA, because they wouldn't offer enough seats on the codeshare so Delta started adding competing services, and slowly the alliance started to dissipate. Now they offer a lot more flights.

Eventually Alaska retreated from all those retaliatory SLC routes.


Delta rarely thrived at LAX. It LANGUISHED for most of its history since the Western merger. Nothing but an endless cycle of expansion and contraction, endlessly. And during at least one of those pitiful cycles, Delta had the advantage of their AS partnership, yet DL still couldn’t expand market share.

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