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Elementalism
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/

Would also point you all to this article

Interesting chart:

Image

It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.


Also explains why 747-8F orders keep tricking in.
 
amdiesen
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:04 pm

Datum: The length differential for the A359F is likely because of using the landing gear section of the -1000
The main landing gear is a 6-wheel bogie instead of a 4-wheel bogie, put in a one frame longer bay.
Airbus devised a three-pronged main undercarriage design philosophy encompassing both four- and six-wheel bogies to stay within pavement loading limits. The A350-900 has four-wheel bogies in a 4.1 m (13 ft) long bay. The higher weight variant, the A350-1000 uses a six-wheel bogie, with a 4.7 m (15 ft) undercarriage bay.[123]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A350_XWB

It was discussed 2020feb/mar here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1442001
excerpts from a more detailed quote:

Lightsaber wrote:
An A350F would be far pricier, but with the A35K gear/wing/engines and a -900 length body, it opens the market.

There will be less market for A350P2F without a new build A350F (in my opinion). Making the offering only makes sense.
One could speculate can see Airbus wants in on the freighter market. Both for new production, but also to prop up resale values on older airframes and ensure a few more decades of ancillary services.


Many of you may have just recognized that this puts a crimp in the A359P2F efforts.
Last edited by amdiesen on Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
Antarius
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:21 pm

amdiesen wrote:
Datum: The length differential for the A359F is likely because of using the landing gear section of the -1000
The main landing gear is a 6-wheel bogie instead of a 4-wheel bogie, put in a one frame longer bay.
Airbus devised a three-pronged main undercarriage design philosophy encompassing both four- and six-wheel bogies to stay within pavement loading limits. The A350-900 has four-wheel bogies in a 4.1 m (13 ft) long bay. The higher weight variant, the A350-1000 uses a six-wheel bogie, with a 4.7 m (15 ft) undercarriage bay.[123]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A350_XWB

It was discussed 2020feb/mar here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1442001
excerpts from a more detailed quote:

Lightsaber wrote:
An A350F would be far pricier, but with the A35K gear/wing/engines and a -900 length body, it opens the market.

There will be less market for A350P2F without a new build A350F (in my opinion). Making the offering only makes sense.
One could speculate can see Airbus wants in on the freighter market. Both for new production, but also to prop up resale values on older airframes and ensure a few more decades of ancillary services.

An A350F would be far pricier, but with the A35K gear/wing/engines and a -900 length body, it opens the market.


Many of you may have just recognized that this puts a crimp in the A359P2F efforts.


The a359P2F market is a long ways away. Most a350s are close to brand new.
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amdiesen
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:24 pm

From a markets perspective the A359F is the most logical launch at the mid+ wb capacity segment.
However, a launch will have multiple impacts on other frames
B778F: Between an A359F and the B773ERSF it really sends Boeing AEs back to the drafting tables and postpones its valid market need
B787-10F: evaporates viability of the concept
B772F: twilight/retires the offering
B789F: competes and the a359 has a market positioning leadership advantage


Spacepope wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/
Would also point you all to this article

Interesting chart:

Image

It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.


Indeed. It also makes a good case for the 789F. Boeing, if it weren't for their troubles, should have launched that 2-3 years ago.


Agreed. The 789F, in this new paradigm, has to contend with the A359F leaching orders.
However, viability should be supported by 788P2F need. imo, again using the Cargofacts chart perspective, the market does not support a business case for a B788F new build
puzzling over:
1) proper amortization of long-lived assets where costs and revenue are complex, in a technologically evolving environment.
2) the economics of gate real estate
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:27 am

[list=][/list]
william wrote:
Maybe Airbus is in talks with UPS? UPS has stated about the need to find a replacement for the MD11. The A350 wingbox would have to beefed up for more domestic cycles,



UPS is finishing up their purchases of B748F's and this will take care of the capacity and range they need to link up their global hubs for years to come. They passed on the B772F for those missions and would likely pass on the A350F for the same reasons. They are gradually retiring their B744F fleet, but the replacements will be with B748F's (and not one-for-one).

UPS's MD-11F fleet has been flying mostly domestic routes in recent years. The MD-11F might not be fuel-efficient, but the fleet is paid for, the MD-11F lifts lots of freight and UPS has accumulated enough spares to keep them flying for years. Also, the wider wingspan of the A350F, when compared to the MD-11F, is problematic given UPS's crowded ramps at their SDF main hub - the MD-11F's fit, the A350F's won't.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:39 am

Some thoughts:

- Airbus might accept a modest ROI on the A350F if it would put the 777x in even more trouble by putting pressure on the 778F as well.

- A slightly longer than the 900F could indeed be due the six wheel bogies. However, longer term, one could also imagine Airbus simple stretching their current passenger version with the eventual arrival of ultrafan. Simply using the SFC improvement of ultrafan to add range no one needs would not seem ideal. A 280T "A350-950" would make better use of the SFC improvement and creates room for a possible A350-850 as well, allowing Airbus the option to replace/terminate the A330 if it would not stay profitable longer term.

Eventually if the markets would return they could do a 319T A350-1050 above the 950.
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Armadillo1
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:51 am

VSMUT wrote:
Boeing sold 242 777-200Fs. That's the realistic market you can expect. The next new-built freighter will have to compete for this market with the 777-300ERSF, used 777-200F and to an extent the A330-300P2F. That's not enough to justify 2 new builds.


market is to replace all 747 and MDs
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:09 am

VSMUT wrote:
Rifitto wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...


Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.


"That's it for Boeing."

Really? You think the life of the company hinges on the 77X freighter? Oh my.
 
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747classic
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:30 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
[list=][/list]
william wrote:
Maybe Airbus is in talks with UPS? UPS has stated about the need to find a replacement for the MD11. The A350 wingbox would have to beefed up for more domestic cycles,



UPS is finishing up their purchases of B748F's and this will take care of the capacity and range they need to link up their global hubs for years to come. They passed on the B772F for those missions and would likely pass on the A350F for the same reasons. They are gradually retiring their B744F fleet, but the replacements will be with B748F's (and not one-for-one).

UPS's MD-11F fleet has been flying mostly domestic routes in recent years. The MD-11F might not be fuel-efficient, but the fleet is paid for, the MD-11F lifts lots of freight and UPS has accumulated enough spares to keep them flying for years. Also, the wider wingspan of the A350F, when compared to the MD-11F, is problematic given UPS's crowded ramps at their SDF main hub - the MD-11F's fit, the A350F's won't.


UPS is still increasing the MD11 fleet by purchasing eight last built ex Lufthansa Cargo MD11F's , two (261 and 262) are already active , one (263) is already at GUS for paint and one (264) still at SAT for HMV.
A fifth (265), recently stored at FRA, has just been added to FAA registry.
And according several sources the remaining three LH MD11 aircraft (D-ALCA,-CC and -CD) are also sold to UPS.

For UPS the ideal medium/high volume aircraft: low ownership costs, can be used at short (domestic) stretches (High cycle LOV) and also long range, when needed.
Last edited by 747classic on Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:26 pm

Airbus has never offered a family of freighters like Boeing has (767, 777, 747). Only A306F then nothing, then A332F, then nothing again.

A tidy mind would expect a smaller offering alongside a 350F. Such as a 338F - should be a relatively simple development read across from the 332F.

We shall see - all is market-dependent.
 
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Spacepope
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 2:28 pm

amdiesen wrote:
From a markets perspective the A359F is the most logical launch at the mid+ wb capacity segment.
However, a launch will have multiple impacts on other frames
B778F: Between an A359F and the B773ERSF it really sends Boeing AEs back to the drafting tables and postpones its valid market need
B787-10F: evaporates viability of the concept
B772F: twilight/retires the offering
B789F: competes and the a359 has a market positioning leadership advantage


Spacepope wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Interesting chart:

Image

It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.


Indeed. It also makes a good case for the 789F. Boeing, if it weren't for their troubles, should have launched that 2-3 years ago.


Agreed. The 789F, in this new paradigm, has to contend with the A359F leaching orders.
However, viability should be supported by 788P2F need. imo, again using the Cargofacts chart perspective, the market does not support a business case for a B788F new build


The 789F competes well with the MD11 replacement market based on volume though, and while the MD has a high LOV on cycles (around 40,000) the 787 family has a tremendously high one, like old school DC9 level. For a domestic or shorter range freighter, especially with UPS running their fleet much more heavily than a nightly out-and-back only 5 days a week now.

What’s the current A359 cycle limit?
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InfinitePilot35
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:22 pm

The market it serves really depends on which variant of the A350 Airbus will produce as freighters. The A350-1000F will most probably be a close competitor to the 777F with (a little) less floor space but with similar or even more range. If Airbus decides on the A350-900F, it will serve a market in between the current mid-size freighters (767F, A330-200F, MD10F) and the large 777F.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:54 pm

The "ideal" A350F would encompass the landing-gear, centre wing box and stronger wings of the -1000, in a fuselage one frame longer than the -900.

Based on that, the weights of a A350F could be roughly as follows.
OEW: 140t
MZFW: 230t (+7 tons over the -1000)
MTOW: 310t (- 9 tons over the -1000, trading TOW for ZFW)
MLAW: 240t (+4 tons over the -1000)
Capacity: 28 main-deck 125/96, 6 + 6 lower-deck 125/96.

That will, all things being equal, allow it to lift 90 tons and take off with around 80 tons of fuel, enough for a 12-hour flight + reserves. That would make it an extremely valuable proposition. It would offer more volume, more range, 20% less fuel burn, reduced maintenance and reduced variable operating costs (landing, enroute charges) over a 777F, but with a maximum payload of around 12 tons less. It would also render the -8F largely irrelevant.
Last edited by B777LRF on Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:58 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 3:55 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
william wrote:
Maybe Airbus is in talks with UPS? UPS has stated about the need to find a replacement for the MD11. The A350 wingbox would have to beefed up for more domestic cycles,

UPS is finishing up their purchases of B748F's and this will take care of the capacity and range they need to link up their global hubs for years to come. They passed on the B772F for those missions and would likely pass on the A350F for the same reasons. They are gradually retiring their B744F fleet, but the replacements will be with B748F's (and not one-for-one).

UPS's MD-11F fleet has been flying mostly domestic routes in recent years. The MD-11F might not be fuel-efficient, but the fleet is paid for, the MD-11F lifts lots of freight and UPS has accumulated enough spares to keep them flying for years. Also, the wider wingspan of the A350F, when compared to the MD-11F, is problematic given UPS's crowded ramps at their SDF main hub - the MD-11F's fit, the A350F's won't.

I recall reading an article where the UPS CEO proudly stated they also passed on picking up any of the last four 748Fs that ended up going to Atlas. She thought their capex spend was too high.

747classic wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
UPS is finishing up their purchases of B748F's and this will take care of the capacity and range they need to link up their global hubs for years to come. They passed on the B772F for those missions and would likely pass on the A350F for the same reasons. They are gradually retiring their B744F fleet, but the replacements will be with B748F's (and not one-for-one).

UPS's MD-11F fleet has been flying mostly domestic routes in recent years. The MD-11F might not be fuel-efficient, but the fleet is paid for, the MD-11F lifts lots of freight and UPS has accumulated enough spares to keep them flying for years. Also, the wider wingspan of the A350F, when compared to the MD-11F, is problematic given UPS's crowded ramps at their SDF main hub - the MD-11F's fit, the A350F's won't.

UPS is still increasing the MD11 fleet by purchasing eight last built ex Lufthansa Cargo MD11F's , two (261 and 262) are already active , one (263) is already at GUS for paint and one (264) still at SAT for HMV.
A fifth (265), recently stored at FRA, has just been added to FAA registry.
And according several sources the remaining three LH MD11 aircraft (D-ALCA,-CC and -CD) are also sold to UPS.

For UPS the ideal medium/high volume aircraft: low ownership costs, can be used at short (domestic) stretches (High cycle LOV) and also long range, when needed.

I gotta say I would not have predicted this, but now that it is happening it makes sense.

Another case of something that doesn't work well for one company does work well for another.

Some times though, buying used a/c doesn't turn out as well as one hopes i.e. DL's MD-90 purchases.

B777LRF wrote:
The "ideal" A350F would encompass the landing-gear, centre wing box and stronger wings of the -1000, in a fuselage one frame longer than the -900.

Based on that, the weights of a A350F could be roughly as follows.
OEW: 140t
MZFW: 230t (+7 tons over the -1000)
MTOW: 310t (- 9 tons over the -1000, trading TOW for ZFW)
MLAW: 240t (+4 tons over the -1000)

That will, all things being equal, allow it to lift 90 tons and take off with around 80 tons of fuel, enough for a 12-hour flight + reserves. That would make it an extremely valuable proposition. It would offer more volume, more range, 20% less fuel burn, reduced maintenance and reduced variable operating costs (landing, enroute charges) over a 777F. It would also render the -8F largely irrelevant.

It would also make for an expensive development, test and certification effort for something IMO that does not have a huge market in front of it.

Seems to me far more likely that Airbus will go with a "cheap and cheerful" A359F with perhaps a bit of strengthening, and even that could die on the vine for lack of launch orders.
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B777LRF
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
It would also make for an expensive development, test and certification effort for something IMO that does not have a huge market in front of it.

Seems to me far more likely that Airbus will go with a "cheap and cheerful" A359F with perhaps a bit of strengthening, and even that could die on the vine for lack of launch orders.


You might very well be right; Airbus has yet to demonstrate they fully understand what it takes to make a "winning" freighter, with the possible exception of the -600F.

On the other hand, they could use the A359/A351 frankenstein as the basis for a ULR monster which could make LHR-AKL with enough reserves to have SYD as an alternate :)
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mig17
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:11 pm

B777LRF wrote:
MTOW: 310t (- 9 tons over the -1000, trading TOW for ZFW)

Why taking MZFW up would hurt MTOW?
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WIederling
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:11 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Polot wrote:
fcogafa wrote:
Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.


Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.


Production break even. not on the project.
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:13 pm

B777LRF wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It would also make for an expensive development, test and certification effort for something IMO that does not have a huge market in front of it.

Seems to me far more likely that Airbus will go with a "cheap and cheerful" A359F with perhaps a bit of strengthening, and even that could die on the vine for lack of launch orders.


You might very well be right; Airbus has yet to demonstrate they fully understand what it takes to make a "winning" freighter, with the possible exception of the -600F.

On the other hand, they could use the A359/A351 frankenstein as the basis for a ULR monster which could make SYD-LHR with enough reserves to have SFJ as an alternate :)

I'm sure they can make a wonderful freighter if they find the right set of customers to buy it.

If you look at the Reuters article, it's all about finding someone to buy it:

PARIS (Reuters) - Airbus is canvassing airline support for a potential freighter version of its A350 passenger jet, targeting a key stronghold of U.S. rival Boeing as e-commerce lifts demand for transported goods, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
...
But a launch depends on identifying enough buyers willing to take a punt on fickle cargo demand in the midst of the aviation industry’s worst downturn, which has trampled airline finances.
...
Industry sources estimate Airbus would need commitments for some 50 aircraft to go ahead with a launch, with Chief Executive Guillaume Faury focusing on carrying out a major restructuring while directing resources towards an A321XLR passenger plane.
...
A development would cost an estimated $2-3 billion.

All in all, this could just be someone in Airbus trying to stir up interest, which is fine, some people get paid to do just that.

It means that if they could be as lucky to clear $50M in profits per plane they need to find 40-60 orders to launch.

If competitive pressures mean they can only clear $25MM per plane they need 80-120 orders.

I can't see where those orders would come from in the near future.

It would take someone appearing from nowhere, such as the Amazon idea floated earlier.
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WIederling
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:19 pm

william wrote:
Maybe Airbus is in talks with UPS? UPS has stated about the need to find a replacement for the MD11. The A350 wingbox would have to beefed up for more domestic cycles,


A350 is full carbon wing, wingbox and fuselage. should be significantly less susceptible to cycling fatique.
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WIederling
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:23 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
You think the life of the company hinges on the 77X freighter? Oh my.


An Airbus product would not help the 77X at all.

Boeing's life currently floats on other things. obviously and strongly.

But their floats get perforated one after the other.
mostly self afflicted but enemy action could be added into the frey.
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Bricktop
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:27 pm

Revelation wrote:
It would take someone appearing from nowhere, such as the Amazon idea floated earlier.

I suspect Amazon would go for a B764F rather than an A359F if they went into the "new build" business. For used and bigger, B77W conversions.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:28 pm

WIederling wrote:
enemy action could be added into the frey.

So many people want to see a war, but after a few tepid demonstrations the troops stay on their own side of the river.
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:39 pm

Bricktop wrote:
Revelation wrote:
It would take someone appearing from nowhere, such as the Amazon idea floated earlier.

I suspect Amazon would go for a B764F rather than an A359F if they went into the "new build" business. For used and bigger, B77W conversions.

Right. Amazon has kept an arms length distance as it has used contractors to do its air freight. It'd be a big change if they made the commitments for these contractors to feel comfortable enough to start buying new builds, either A339F, A359F or 764F. I think (used) 77WF above and A321F below are the next big things in the freight market. That's where the feed stock is plentiful.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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tomcat
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:48 pm

B777LRF wrote:
The "ideal" A350F would encompass the landing-gear, centre wing box and stronger wings of the -1000, in a fuselage one frame longer than the -900.

Based on that, the weights of a A350F could be roughly as follows.
OEW: 140t
MZFW: 230t (+7 tons over the -1000)
MTOW: 310t (- 9 tons over the -1000, trading TOW for ZFW)
MLAW: 240t (+4 tons over the -1000)
Capacity: 28 main-deck 125/96, 6 + 6 lower-deck 125/96.

That will, all things being equal, allow it to lift 90 tons and take off with around 80 tons of fuel, enough for a 12-hour flight + reserves. That would make it an extremely valuable proposition. It would offer more volume, more range, 20% less fuel burn, reduced maintenance and reduced variable operating costs (landing, enroute charges) over a 777F, but with a maximum payload of around 12 tons less. It would also render the -8F largely irrelevant.


I had guesstimated the OEW at 140t as well.

On the other hand, I think that your are being pessimistic with the MTOW. It doesn't need to be lowered in order to increase the MZFW, other options are available like reinforcing the structure where it needs to be, impacting the OEW though. For example, the 748F has a 13% higher MZFW than the 748 (334t vs 295t) while maintaining the same MTOW (*). A development cost in the range of $2-3 billion points at a significant development which could include an increased MZFW.

In my estimates for this shrunk A351F, I had considered that Airbus would aim at an equivalent max payload as the 772F. That's 102.8 metric tonnes. So I have the following numbers:
OEW: 140t
Max payload: 102.8t
MZFW: 242.8t
MTOW: 316t
MLW: 252.8t (based on your numbers this would be +16.8t over the A351 MLW, or +7.1%. For reference (*), the 748F has a 12% greater MLW than the 748).
At max payload, this plane could take 73.2t of fuel. Considering 6.5t fuel remaining at landing, this leaves 66.7t of fuel to burn. With an average fuel burn of 6.7t/h and considering an average speed of M0.82 over the entire flight, this amount of fuel is good for 4672 nm still air. A 319t MTOW would allow 3t more of fuel and a range of 4880 nm.
By comparison, the 772F is said to carry 102.8t over 4880nm (**). (**) also gives us the MTOW and MZFW of the 772F. So the fuel burn for carrying 102.8t over 4880 nm still air is:
MTOW: 347.45t
MZFW: 248.1t
This leaves 99.35t for fuel at MTOW and at max payload. Considering 8t of fuel at landing, the 772F would thus burn 91.35t for such a flight.

So for the same max payload 102.8t flown over 4900 nm, my much assumed 319t shrunk A351F would burn 69.7t vs 91.35t for the 772F. This would be 23.7% less than the 772F. This is great provided that the 140t OEW and the average fuel burn of 6.7t/h are correct assumptions. Note that I'm assuming that at any given weight during flight, a shrunk A351 would burn slightly fuel than the baseline A351 given that the shrunk fuselage would generate less friction drag. I just have no idea of by how much this would reduce the fuel burn.

(*) https://www.easa.europa.eu/sites/default/files/dfu/TCDS_EASA%20IM%20A%20196_B747_Issue_17__18.12.2018.pdf
(**) https://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_02_09/article_02_1.html

Note that (**) is also listing the changes in the 777F compared to the 777-200LR.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:56 pm

Were the A300/310 freighters mostly new build or were they P2F conversions?

I agree with Revelation. The A321 is probably the best Airbus can hope for as far as freighters go. Canceling the A380F after getting orders probably doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either.
 
Antarius
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:10 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Were the A300/310 freighters mostly new build or were they P2F conversions?

I agree with Revelation. The A321 is probably the best Airbus can hope for as far as freighters go. Canceling the A380F after getting orders probably doesn't inspire a lot of confidence either.


Airbus canceled the a358 and that hasn't impacted the a350 sales at all. I wouldn't read into the prospects of an a350F based on the a380F; the a380F was a dud waiting to happen.
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william
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:32 pm

Apparently with the major reduction in pax lying and plenty of metal sitting in the deserts, conversions will claim a big chunk of Freighter purchases going forward. No wander Airbus wants a dance partner first, the dance floor is already crowded.

https://theloadstar.com/outlook-for-lar ... on-market/

"According to aviation consultancy IBA, between last May and February, 61 aircraft have joined the global freighter fleet in the narrowbody segment, while the ranks of mid-sized cargo planes swelled by 80 newcomers.

Except for a few 767-300ERFs, all the newcomers in these segments were converted aircraft.

“It almost seems like the pendulum has swung back to the 1970s, a period when pretty much everything was converted freighters,” said Ed Walton, managing director aircraft engineering at UPS Airlines.

He said the only production freighters currently available were the 777 and the 767, with output of the latter very limited.

Aviation Week predicts more than 1,000 freighter deliveries over the next 10 years, almost 800 of them converted passenger planes, with the share of conversions rising through the decade.

Today, conversion capacity is the main bottleneck, said Brady Templeton, MD aircraft engineering at ATSG."
 
trex8
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Mar 13, 2021 11:36 pm

would a A350 allow 10 ft high containers like a 747 and even 777 (though contoured) or would it be more likely to be 8ft high??
 
Sokes
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:46 am

tomcat wrote:
...
For example, the 748F has a 13% higher MZFW than the 748 (334t vs 295t) while maintaining the same MTOW (*). A development cost in the range of $2-3 billion points at a significant development which could include an increased MZFW.

Makes sense.

I am wondering if Airbus waited for numbers from the B777X. If so, it doesn't sound good for the B777X.
What's the latest news about the new GE engines?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:48 am

trex8 wrote:
would a A350 allow 10 ft high containers like a 747 and even 777 (though contoured) or would it be more likely to be 8ft high??

Are there companies that use 10 ft high containers in the B747? I have never seen a picture that would suggest that.
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:53 am

Sokes wrote:
tomcat wrote:
...
For example, the 748F has a 13% higher MZFW than the 748 (334t vs 295t) while maintaining the same MTOW (*). A development cost in the range of $2-3 billion points at a significant development which could include an increased MZFW.

Makes sense.

I am wondering if Airbus waited for numbers from the B777X. If so, it doesn't sound good for the B777X.
What's the latest news about the new GE engines?

They’ve been touting this long before 777X flew. There was no interest. The only reason they’re pushing hard now is because of this pandemic, production numbers are low and 1/3rd of Boeing a widebody orders came from freighters

I know lightsaber has seen GE9X fuel burn figures. He says in his opinion they’re a generation ahead of any other engine on the market at the moment
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 1:59 am

InfinitePilot35 wrote:
The market it serves really depends on which variant of the A350 Airbus will produce as freighters. The A350-1000F will most probably be a close competitor to the 777F with (a little) less floor space but with similar or even more range. If Airbus decides on the A350-900F, it will serve a market in between the current mid-size freighters (767F, A330-200F, MD10F) and the large 777F.

Airbus has a problem with the business case for an A350F. A steady stream of feedstock for A321 and A332/333 P2F conversions is just beginning. It also has to compete with existing B777F and its potential successor (B778F).

It must surely use the A35X as the base as it is the more capable airframe. However, its real competitors are the lower cost P2F conversions and much will depend on the price of oil. If oil prices rise above USD 100, Airbus will have a more solid business case.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:18 am

Sokes wrote:
trex8 wrote:
would a A350 allow 10 ft high containers like a 747 and even 777 (though contoured) or would it be more likely to be 8ft high??

Are there companies that use 10 ft high containers in the B747? I have never seen a picture that would suggest that.

I've definitely seen pallets stacked as high as the door sill go in. Is it common ? Dunno.
 
trex8
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:25 am

Sokes wrote:
trex8 wrote:
would a A350 allow 10 ft high containers like a 747 and even 777 (though contoured) or would it be more likely to be 8ft high??

Are there companies that use 10 ft high containers in the B747? I have never seen a picture that would suggest that.

I've definitely seen pallets stacked as high as the door sill go in. Sat on the tarmac at TPE once in a BR 77W watching them load a CI 744. Also seen a RU 747 loaded at ORD same while stuck on the tollway. Is it common ? Dunno.
even the UPS and cargolux website shows pallet positions with the tallest ones possible
https://aircargo.ups.com/en-US/aircraft
https://www.cargolux.com/Our-Expertise/ ... ifications
 
bigb
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:25 am

Sokes wrote:
trex8 wrote:
would a A350 allow 10 ft high containers like a 747 and even 777 (though contoured) or would it be more likely to be 8ft high??

Are there companies that use 10 ft high containers in the B747? I have never seen a picture that would suggest that.


Yeah, flying a DHL run today, we had 10ft high pallets on onboard. They can only go up to where the upper deck starts though on the 74.
 
Sokes
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:57 am

Why is my question about containers answered with pallets?
And why should a container be 10 ft high?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
bigb
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:11 am

Sokes wrote:
Why is my question about containers answered with pallets?
And why should a container be 10 ft high?


Because it’s volume = more packages that can be moved which it important for carriers like DHL, FedEx, or UPS.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:43 am

Opus99 wrote:
The only reason they’re pushing hard now is because of this pandemic, production numbers are low and 1/3rd of Boeing a widebody orders came from freighters


The reason for the A350F is to kill the 777-8 for good.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
VSMUT
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:35 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Airbus has never offered a family of freighters like Boeing has (767, 777, 747). Only A306F then nothing, then A332F, then nothing again.

A tidy mind would expect a smaller offering alongside a 350F. Such as a 338F - should be a relatively simple development read across from the 332F.

We shall see - all is market-dependent.


They are behind the EFW A330P2F, A321P2F and upcoming A320P2F.


TTailedTiger wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Rifitto wrote:
The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...


Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.


"That's it for Boeing."

Really? You think the life of the company hinges on the 77X freighter? Oh my.


Obviously in reference to the 777-8F.


Rifitto wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.


i don't see what the USAF contract have to do with the freight market conversation ,
the B767 is simply better ,it outperformed and outsold the a300 ,it the reason why it's still in production ,there is no discussion about it


It is apparently easy to forget that the 767 was from a commercial prospective as good as dead and buried 15 years ago. The only thing that kept the line from going the way of the 757, was the prospective USAF contract for tankers for an initial 373 aircraft, potentially over 500. Boeing pushed 767s at discounted prices and as 787 delay compensations to keep the line going. If it hadn't been for the USAF contract, the 767 simply wouldn't have been around by the time FedEx needed new freighters in 2011.


Rifitto wrote:
In the other hand the a350 size is close to the b772 , but the later has greater MTOW and MFZ hence more payload / range than the 350 ,

and it's smaller than the 778 which is 3m longer ,have 35 cm wider fuselage and + 77 tons higher MTOW , that's a lot of weight and volume difference

,you can't put them in the same basket , So NO ,the 350f won't kill the 77XF since these are two different aircraft aiming two different missions
unlike the 767 and the a300 which have very close specs


A hypothetical A350-900 with the wing, gear and MTOM of the A350-1000 would come pretty close to the 777-8. But that's a mute point, since airlines are rarely that specific in their requirements and often compromise for whatever is cheaper to acquire, operate or a ton of other reasons. The market is not big enough to sustain 2, so airlines will just compromise with whichever aircraft takes the market.

If more is better as you allude to, then let us not forget that the A330F could carry quite a bit more than the 767F. In fact, so could the A300-600F ;)
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:51 am

VSMUT wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Airbus has never offered a family of freighters like Boeing has (767, 777, 747). Only A306F then nothing, then A332F, then nothing again.

A tidy mind would expect a smaller offering alongside a 350F. Such as a 338F - should be a relatively simple development read across from the 332F.

We shall see - all is market-dependent.


They are behind the EFW A330P2F, A321P2F and upcoming A320P2F.


TTailedTiger wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.


"That's it for Boeing."

Really? You think the life of the company hinges on the 77X freighter? Oh my.


Obviously in reference to the 777-8F.


Rifitto wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.


i don't see what the USAF contract have to do with the freight market conversation ,
the B767 is simply better ,it outperformed and outsold the a300 ,it the reason why it's still in production ,there is no discussion about it


It is apparently easy to forget that the 767 was from a commercial prospective as good as dead and buried 15 years ago. The only thing that kept the line from going the way of the 757, was the prospective USAF contract for tankers for an initial 373 aircraft, potentially over 500. Boeing pushed 767s at discounted prices and as 787 delay compensations to keep the line going. If it hadn't been for the USAF contract, the 767 simply wouldn't have been around by the time FedEx needed new freighters in 2011.


Rifitto wrote:
In the other hand the a350 size is close to the b772 , but the later has greater MTOW and MFZ hence more payload / range than the 350 ,

and it's smaller than the 778 which is 3m longer ,have 35 cm wider fuselage and + 77 tons higher MTOW , that's a lot of weight and volume difference

,you can't put them in the same basket , So NO ,the 350f won't kill the 77XF since these are two different aircraft aiming two different missions
unlike the 767 and the a300 which have very close specs


A hypothetical A350-900 with the wing, gear and MTOM of the A350-1000 would come pretty close to the 777-8. But that's a mute point, since airlines are rarely that specific in their requirements and often compromise for whatever is cheaper to acquire, operate or a ton of other reasons. The market is not big enough to sustain 2, so airlines will just compromise with whichever aircraft takes the market.

If more is better as you allude to, then let us not forget that the A330F could carry quite a bit more than the 767F. In fact, so could the A300-600F ;)

Assuming this more complex A350F will be cheaper...
 
Interflug74
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 9:57 am

Polot wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
Polot wrote:
Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.


Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.

That’s when they reached production break even (received more money from A350 deliveries then spent on program that year). They only broke even on a per frame basis in 2018. They didn’t suddenly earn back €10 billion in profit form the program in a year.


10 billions spend on a product, not on desaster
 
VSMUT
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:01 am

Opus99 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Airbus has never offered a family of freighters like Boeing has (767, 777, 747). Only A306F then nothing, then A332F, then nothing again.

A tidy mind would expect a smaller offering alongside a 350F. Such as a 338F - should be a relatively simple development read across from the 332F.

We shall see - all is market-dependent.


They are behind the EFW A330P2F, A321P2F and upcoming A320P2F.


TTailedTiger wrote:

"That's it for Boeing."

Really? You think the life of the company hinges on the 77X freighter? Oh my.


Obviously in reference to the 777-8F.


Rifitto wrote:

i don't see what the USAF contract have to do with the freight market conversation ,
the B767 is simply better ,it outperformed and outsold the a300 ,it the reason why it's still in production ,there is no discussion about it


It is apparently easy to forget that the 767 was from a commercial prospective as good as dead and buried 15 years ago. The only thing that kept the line from going the way of the 757, was the prospective USAF contract for tankers for an initial 373 aircraft, potentially over 500. Boeing pushed 767s at discounted prices and as 787 delay compensations to keep the line going. If it hadn't been for the USAF contract, the 767 simply wouldn't have been around by the time FedEx needed new freighters in 2011.


Rifitto wrote:
In the other hand the a350 size is close to the b772 , but the later has greater MTOW and MFZ hence more payload / range than the 350 ,

and it's smaller than the 778 which is 3m longer ,have 35 cm wider fuselage and + 77 tons higher MTOW , that's a lot of weight and volume difference

,you can't put them in the same basket , So NO ,the 350f won't kill the 77XF since these are two different aircraft aiming two different missions
unlike the 767 and the a300 which have very close specs


A hypothetical A350-900 with the wing, gear and MTOM of the A350-1000 would come pretty close to the 777-8. But that's a mute point, since airlines are rarely that specific in their requirements and often compromise for whatever is cheaper to acquire, operate or a ton of other reasons. The market is not big enough to sustain 2, so airlines will just compromise with whichever aircraft takes the market.

If more is better as you allude to, then let us not forget that the A330F could carry quite a bit more than the 767F. In fact, so could the A300-600F ;)

Assuming this more complex A350F will be cheaper...


Compared to a niche shrink of the 777-9 turned into a freighter that Boeing already put on ice once? I wouldn't take my bets on the 777-8F being cheaper. Keep in mind, Boeing estimates they will only sell 350 of the 777X. The type as a whole risks becoming an oddball.
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:19 am

VSMUT wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

They are behind the EFW A330P2F, A321P2F and upcoming A320P2F.




Obviously in reference to the 777-8F.




It is apparently easy to forget that the 767 was from a commercial prospective as good as dead and buried 15 years ago. The only thing that kept the line from going the way of the 757, was the prospective USAF contract for tankers for an initial 373 aircraft, potentially over 500. Boeing pushed 767s at discounted prices and as 787 delay compensations to keep the line going. If it hadn't been for the USAF contract, the 767 simply wouldn't have been around by the time FedEx needed new freighters in 2011.




A hypothetical A350-900 with the wing, gear and MTOM of the A350-1000 would come pretty close to the 777-8. But that's a mute point, since airlines are rarely that specific in their requirements and often compromise for whatever is cheaper to acquire, operate or a ton of other reasons. The market is not big enough to sustain 2, so airlines will just compromise with whichever aircraft takes the market.

If more is better as you allude to, then let us not forget that the A330F could carry quite a bit more than the 767F. In fact, so could the A300-600F ;)

Assuming this more complex A350F will be cheaper...


Compared to a niche shrink of the 777-9 turned into a freighter that Boeing already put on ice once? I wouldn't take my bets on the 777-8F being cheaper. Keep in mind, Boeing estimates they will only sell 350 of the 777X. The type as a whole risks becoming an oddball.

You do realise that accounting number is extremely fluid. It increases as you get more orders.

Secondly, we already know Airbus has a cost problem on their 350s they said it with their mouth and with the reduced rate. Even more. But you’re right. We cannot bet on 778 being cheaper. Okay, even if Boeing still has the very capable 777F to price the 350F out of the market, then you have 77WF conversion, if Boeing chooses to open that line that’s another angle. Boeing can simply price Airbus out of the market with their product offerings until they’re ready for the 778F. Which will most likely launch before the passenger since ICAO rules don’t allow 777F production after 2028.

DHL bought more 777F last month or so. Do you think Airbus won’t have pitched this jet to them?

QR said they’re would be interested but they’re waiting for Boeing to come with their final details on the 777XF - if it was such a slam dunk Airbus won’t be breaking their backs looking for a customer.

Like I said. Freight always seems to be an after thought at Airbus.

Up thread we already know that if Boeing increases MTOW of the 778F to 778MTOW it will be as capable of not more than the 77F which the A350F already has to beat. We know of the 778MTOW bump from Boeing marketing slides.

So it’s very very far from having a market to service let alone killing anything.

Might I also add. FEDEX was also very interested in the 778F but for 2026, at the time Boeing felt it would be too late for when they initially wanted to bring it to market. But I don’t think it’s too late now.

Rumour has it 778F development is going ahead of the passenger one. So let’s see what Boeing shares with customers. Airbus seems to be hoping they can just launch first and get that advantage without actually launching better. But this freighter business is not like passenger. They will wait on the sidelines
 
flipdewaf
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:26 am

Opus99 wrote:
Assuming this more complex A350F will be cheaper...


More complex and or cheaper compared to what?

Fred


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Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:28 am

flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Assuming this more complex A350F will be cheaper...


More complex and or cheaper compared to what?

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

More complex compared to wait Boeing would have to do for a 778F. Given of course the carbon fibre fuselage and work arounds of cutting into the frame compared to Aluminum as the article eludes to and cheaper than 778F
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:29 am

viewtopic.php?t=1440675

Btw. That’s the thread that has the marketing slide on the 788,000 MTOW 777-8
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:47 am

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1440675

Btw. That’s the thread that has the marketing slide on the 788,000 MTOW 777-8

https://theaircurrent.com/aircraft-deve ... tas-deals/

John Ostrower also confirmed it here months before that slide was leaked
 
VSMUT
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:54 am

Opus99 wrote:
Like I said. Freight always seems to be an after thought at Airbus.


This nonsense keeps getting repeated. Go back 15 years, and people said the exact same about Boeing, and defended Airbus' position on the cargo market the same way so many are now defending Boeing's position. The A300/310 family dominated the market, the A330F was the natural progression, the A380F and A320P2F were on the horizon. The market will flip back and forth every couple of years, driven in particular by available feedstock, which is swinging in favour of Airbus at the moment. Eventually it will flip back to Boeing when the 787s start hitting the market.


Opus99 wrote:
Okay, even if Boeing still has the very capable 777F to price the 350F out of the market


Not just very capable, actually more capable than even the hypothetical 777-8F.

That is definitely true, although Boeing will face problems with continued 777-200F production now that they don't have the volume of 777-300ERs to prop up the production. It still has a good few years ahead of it, but the end is definitely on the horizon. Without the volume, the price will go up.
 
JonesNL
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:55 am

Like some other mentioned the freighter market will be flooded with feedstock for conversion. Especially in the widebody segment. I think the A350f will kill the 777xf (or visa versa)in they same way that the 747-8 killed the A380. It was somewhat successful but at what cost? In a duopoly it usually hurts both parties when you compete head to head in a niche segment.
Last edited by JonesNL on Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Mar 14, 2021 10:56 am

Opus99 wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Assuming this more complex A350F will be cheaper...


More complex and or cheaper compared to what?

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

More complex compared to wait Boeing would have to do for a 778F. Given of course the carbon fibre fuselage and work arounds of cutting into the frame compared to Aluminum as the article eludes to and cheaper than 778F

Yep, I think the article points in two directions in terms of the complexity.

1. Cutting a large cargo door in a composite frame is a new challenge that needs to be suitably addressed.
2. Having panel construction may be a blessing here.

I think that carbon isn’t necessarily more complex in the end than al but just more unknown at this point as to how it would be implemented.

For airframe cost purposes I would assume a first order approximation of cost scaling linearly with weight and second order of scaling linearly with LOG2 of production rate. Both of these favour A350 over 777X right now but I would wager that the low(er) capital of the 777-300ersf (is that name right?) is probably the real challenge to both.

IMO a 357tMTOW would make the 778f a better prospect but that would also hamper the business case of the pax version as the 779 would be ever encroaching on its niche.

Fred


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Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos