keesje wrote:JayinKitsap wrote:So back to the Opening Post. Airbus needs at least 50 orders to launch. As the new built freighter market is much smaller than the passenger models, so expecting orders from from airline will be in the 10 or less number. So which 5 airlines are ready to order 10 freighters each.
UPS passed on adding 748F's last year, haven't ordered any new freighters for a while.
FedEx could be interested.
Cargolux seems to be satisfied
Amazon has not ordered any new aircraft, just conversions with the largest being 767.
Qatar could do 5 to 10
Who are likely potentials to order 50 new freighters? Discuss
Traditionally cargo conversions make up the majority of cargo fleets. But with even 767 and 777F no longer meeting future requirements, I can see Airbus taking the opportunity to launch a A350F relatively early. The fact they are even willing to fine tune deck size for pallets/ containers, shows some confidence.
Atlas Air / Southern 25,
Emirates SkyCargo 8,
Cathay Pacific Cargo 6,
LH Cargo 10,
China Southern Cargo 4
Yes throw in Fedex & UPS, DHL for dozens. Not now, but at some point. They have aging, non compliant fleet types too.
Globally many MD11's, DC10's, 767s, 747s up for replacements later this decade.
A350s slash envorinmental foodprints & noise. Increasingly a topic.
Global taxpayers, governments got more influence recently, whether we like it or not..
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/atlas ... lout-funds
https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... e-package/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... us-flights
Recent comments from CI management suggest a future fleet of 18 744Fs AND 6 777Fs by 2023 . While anything can happen the rest of this decade, with 14 A359s in the fleet already a whole new fleet of A350Fs to replace the 744Fs is a possibility. Even if they have to pick up another maybe 6 777Fs to replace some older 744Fs before 2026 or whenever they have to stop making the 777 (and before the ROC CAA make them retire 26 year old planes), one could see all 24 freighters planned by 2023 being completely replaced by the A350 by early next decade.
Paris can sell Taipei Meteor missiles and an AESA radar upgrade for their Mirage 2000s and this deal is in the bag! There are even rumors some of the "irregular" payments allegedly paid by CI to Airbus over the A350 deal may not have had anything to do with commercial Airbus products but was a mechanism for small packages of upgraded equipment for the Mirages.
Boeing will still get its $$ from Taipei. There's over 3 billion in Harpoons/Slam ERs still to be contracted for and more than 60 AH1Ws to be replaced to join the 30 AH64Es. Plus a bunch of CH47s to replace.