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trex8
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri May 07, 2021 11:11 pm

keesje wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
So back to the Opening Post. Airbus needs at least 50 orders to launch. As the new built freighter market is much smaller than the passenger models, so expecting orders from from airline will be in the 10 or less number. So which 5 airlines are ready to order 10 freighters each.

UPS passed on adding 748F's last year, haven't ordered any new freighters for a while.
FedEx could be interested.
Cargolux seems to be satisfied
Amazon has not ordered any new aircraft, just conversions with the largest being 767.
Qatar could do 5 to 10

Who are likely potentials to order 50 new freighters? Discuss


Traditionally cargo conversions make up the majority of cargo fleets. But with even 767 and 777F no longer meeting future requirements, I can see Airbus taking the opportunity to launch a A350F relatively early. The fact they are even willing to fine tune deck size for pallets/ containers, shows some confidence.

Possible customers?
:splat: Atlas Air / Southern 25,
:splat: AF/KLM 8,
:splat: Qatar 6,
:splat: Emirates SkyCargo 8,
:splat: Cathay Pacific Cargo 6,
:splat: LH Cargo 10,
:splat: China Southern Cargo 4

Yes throw in Fedex & UPS, DHL for dozens. Not now, but at some point. They have aging, non compliant fleet types too.
Globally many MD11's, DC10's, 767s, 747s up for replacements later this decade.

A350s slash envorinmental foodprints & noise. Increasingly a topic.
Global taxpayers, governments got more influence recently, whether we like it or not..

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/atlas ... lout-funds
https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... e-package/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... us-flights

Recent comments from CI management suggest a future fleet of 18 744Fs AND 6 777Fs by 2023 . While anything can happen the rest of this decade, with 14 A359s in the fleet already a whole new fleet of A350Fs to replace the 744Fs is a possibility. Even if they have to pick up another maybe 6 777Fs to replace some older 744Fs before 2026 or whenever they have to stop making the 777 (and before the ROC CAA make them retire 26 year old planes), one could see all 24 freighters planned by 2023 being completely replaced by the A350 by early next decade.

Paris can sell Taipei Meteor missiles and an AESA radar upgrade for their Mirage 2000s and this deal is in the bag! There are even rumors some of the "irregular" payments allegedly paid by CI to Airbus over the A350 deal may not have had anything to do with commercial Airbus products but was a mechanism for small packages of upgraded equipment for the Mirages.
Boeing will still get its $$ from Taipei. There's over 3 billion in Harpoons/Slam ERs still to be contracted for and more than 60 AH1Ws to be replaced to join the 30 AH64Es. Plus a bunch of CH47s to replace.
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 12:05 am

Okcflyer wrote:
morrisond wrote:
morrisond wrote:

No there is nothing stopping anyone from installing more seats but it is a data point.

It appears as though Boeing gets to 426 seats by using the same Higher Density Seating in business that Airbus uses to get to 369 as per the ACAPS. They have about the same distance between the L1 and L2 doors for the front cabin less the room they are taking for galleys.

Just doing some interprolation this morning. Be kind as I might have screwed up something somewhere.

Using your numbers and fuel burn and adjusting for 8,400 NM at 316 Tons and assuming in the last hours A351 fuel bun is down to about 6.1 T per hour (if I remember correctly from what you have posted previously)- that works out to about 94.464T for the 6,000 NM trip on the A351.

Taking that number and grossing it up by 15.4% for more passengers on the 779 (426 vs 369) and then taking off 11% better fuel burn per passenger gets me back to 97.020 T for the 777X. Which is not that surprising (777X takes 3% more fuel to go the same distance) as the engines are 5% better in SFC - and 8% more thrust in cruise if the ratio at cruise of an 105 vs 97K engine holds and kind of makes sense given the higher weight but much bigger wing. I think I also remember reading that the GE9X is 103.5K continuous at sea level - 110K for take off. Which is only an 6.7% difference if an Ge9X produces the same percent of thrust at altitude as the XWB97.

The MZFW for the 779 is 254.9T. MTOW is 351.5T (a difference of 96.6T) - meaning it can carry its max payload out to just about 6,000NM.

The MZFW for the 316t A351 is 220T leaving 96T for fuel - meaning it can carry its max payload out to about 6,100NM.

By Zeke's numbers an A351 is about 148T - meaning it can lift about 72T with an 316T MTOW. It has a usable Fuel Capacity of 122.5T. At 6.1T in the last hours of long distance flights that gives you about 2217 NM more range - about 8,317 NM - almost equal to the 8,400 brochure Range and that should give you enough MTOW margin to lift an additional 7.1T of Cargo.

The 77X should burn more per hour in its last hours let's call it 6.5T per hour. It has a usable fuel capacity of 159T. So it is not fuel limited. BTW for Ferry Flights the 777X could go about 10,600NM or about 22 hours!

Even if you assume its OEW weight is 184T and you assume 42.6 T for passengers that leaves 124.9T for Fuel. At 6.5T per hour for the last hours you would have another 4.3 hours of fuel left or 2073 NM range, taking you to about 8,100NM vs 7,285 Brochure range.

Boeing is sandbagging. The OEW weight for the 77X would have to be about 195T if Boeing claims about 11% better per passenger at 6,000 NM is not make believe.

Yes it is heavier - but I don't think anyone believes it's that heavy!


Just thinking through in terms of implications for a 350 Freighter and how it could offer something more to break into the market.

If it's 97T to go 6,000 NM at as MZFW of 254.9T for the 779 and they can bump this to 267.9T for a 70 M 778xF that still gives them 5,000NM range.

An 62M 772F weighs about 144.4T OEW weight - an 164T 70M 778xF should be able to carry about 104T, 170T - 98T of lift. An 772F is 10 M shorter than 773ER and 23.5T lighter or about 2.35T per meter. 2.35T x 6 meters =14.1 T - so it just depends if you think the 779 is 178T or 184T.

So that I think is the boggie Airbus has to hit 70M long (so it fits at least the same amount of containers as an 778F) and more than 104T of lift. If it wants to break into the market it has to offer something more and it has to protect itself if Boeing goes to 360T MTOW.

Which leads me back to an 350F 70M 340T MTWOW 105K engines that can lift 115T.


I don't think it needs to carry 115T over 5000nm. 4200nm or so is sufficient at max payload. This puts your MTOW about 330T which is getting more realistic.

I still think that falls into the "technically feasible" but commercially not viable category. Increasing MTOW 11T, let alone 21T, is an expensive proposition and not an investment-wise decision. If they start changing the length, that's a crap-ton of flight testing for aero performance validation that has to be repeated. If they keep existing lengths, those can be done empirically, with the flight testing focusing on a much narrow scope.

No freight airline is going to pay a $50M premium upfront for a highly optimized freighter vs a A35KF or A359F. The payback isn't there.


The initial rumour was that its an 350-950 - somewhere in between the length of the 900 and 1000. Which allows falls into what makes sense if they re-engine the 350 when it would probably make sense to extend the 900 and 1000 as they would become too capable which range no one would ever use.

330T might be possible with the existing structure. I believe higher weights for the 351 have been rumoured and we can't forget about the 350-2000(1100) that was shopped around by Airbus when the 777-10 was as well. Presumably it would have had higher MTOW.
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 1:50 am

morrisond wrote:
Zeke's assumption on how much the passengers weigh or what is added to OEW is low.


Please go and look for yourself and see what Boeing and Airbus have out in their ACAPS for weights and then come back and tell us if 100 kg per person is low.

Please cite the source of this claim that 100 kg per person that I have used is low.

morrisond wrote:
The initial rumour was that its an 350-950 - somewhere in between the length of the 900 and 1000.


Airbus has never talked about an airframe between the -900 and -1000, they have talked about a shorter aircraft the -800 and a longer aircraft than the -1000.

Please cite the source of this claim of this “350-950”.
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morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 3:08 am

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Zeke's assumption on how much the passengers weigh or what is added to OEW is low.


Please go and look for yourself and see what Boeing and Airbus have out in their ACAPS for weights and then come back and tell us if 100 kg per person is low.

Please cite the source of this claim that 100 kg per person that I have used is low.

morrisond wrote:
The initial rumour was that its an 350-950 - somewhere in between the length of the 900 and 1000.


Airbus has never talked about an airframe between the -900 and -1000, they have talked about a shorter aircraft the -800 and a longer aircraft than the -1000.

Please cite the source of this claim of this “350-950”.


Sorry if you misunderstood my sentence or I wrote it incorrectly. I know they and you used 100KG per person - I'm just wondering about whether or not you have add in weight for things like catering and water on top of that or is that taken into account?

I thought the 950 was part of the article that started this thread?

I just checked - yes it was "It is not the first time a possible new freighter has been mooted. The latest design on the drawing board at Airbus’s Toulouse headquarters in France involves a slightly longer aircraft than the best-selling Airbus A350-900 jetliner."
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 9:31 am

zeke wrote:
Airbus has never talked about an airframe between the -900 and -1000 [...] “350-950”.


Airbus have never publicly talked about an A350-950F, but aviationweek.com cites "industry sources" and "briefed suppliers". They say Airbus is talking about an A350-950F. This possible new derivative is a shortened -1000 with a forward main deck cargo door. The overall length of the A350-950 would be just 1 feet longer than the 777-8.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... freighters

The proposed -950F derivative is sized between the larger A350-1000 and the smaller A350-900. According to industry sources the new variant will incorporate a new forward fuselage plug with a cargo door and local structural strengthening. The proposed hybrid aircraft, which is believed to be around 230 ft. in overall length compared to 219 ft. for the A350-900 and 242.1 ft. for the A350-1000, would utilize the larger variant’s six-wheel main landing gear design and higher-thrust Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engines.

According to suppliers briefed on the project, which was first disclosed by Reuters in March, the A350 derivative could enter service early in the second half of the decade if formally launched by year-end.

Although Airbus first proposed a freighter variant of the A350 in 2007, shortly after the launch of the new airliner program, this early derivative was configured with a performance similar to the MD-11F. Its development was deferred to give priority to the passenger models. Compared to the initial offering, the updated -950F would offer greater range and payload capability, and could enable Airbus to compete more effectively both with Boeing’s popular 777-200LR-based design as well as provide growth to match the 777-8F.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 1:14 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
If they start changing the length, that's a crap-ton of flight testing for aero performance validation that has to be repeated. If they keep existing lengths, those can be done empirically, with the flight testing focusing on a much narrow scope.

No freight airline is going to pay a $50M premium upfront for a highly optimized freighter vs a A35KF or A359F. The payback isn't there.

Seems true, yet we have the article that reidar76 just posted and IIRC was posted earlier in this thread or a similar one saying the proposal is a shortened A35K.

Since it's the more expensive option, it suggests Airbus realized, or they were told, that the standard length A359 didn't offer enough payload/range and the A35K lost payload/range due to excess fuselage length so the way forward was with a shortened A35K, even if this means more cost and longer time to market.

As you suggest, the down side is that either you charge more for each plane or decide it's a strategic imperative to get into the freighter market so you eat the extra R&D expense.
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 1:22 pm

reidar76 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Airbus has never talked about an airframe between the -900 and -1000 [...] “350-950”.


Airbus have never publicly talked about an A350-950F, but aviationweek.com cites "industry sources" and "briefed suppliers". They say Airbus is talking about an A350-950F. This possible new derivative is a shortened -1000 with a forward main deck cargo door. The overall length of the A350-950 would be just 1 feet longer than the 777-8.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... freighters

The proposed -950F derivative is sized between the larger A350-1000 and the smaller A350-900. According to industry sources the new variant will incorporate a new forward fuselage plug with a cargo door and local structural strengthening. The proposed hybrid aircraft, which is believed to be around 230 ft. in overall length compared to 219 ft. for the A350-900 and 242.1 ft. for the A350-1000, would utilize the larger variant’s six-wheel main landing gear design and higher-thrust Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engines.

According to suppliers briefed on the project, which was first disclosed by Reuters in March, the A350 derivative could enter service early in the second half of the decade if formally launched by year-end.

Although Airbus first proposed a freighter variant of the A350 in 2007, shortly after the launch of the new airliner program, this early derivative was configured with a performance similar to the MD-11F. Its development was deferred to give priority to the passenger models. Compared to the initial offering, the updated -950F would offer greater range and payload capability, and could enable Airbus to compete more effectively both with Boeing’s popular 777-200LR-based design as well as provide growth to match the 777-8F.


Good find.

So if they are similar in length (presumably same number of LD3's and Pallets - or it would have to be at least an 1.5M difference) and a potential 360T 778F could lift somewhere around 108-114T shouldn't that be the bogey?

Can they do that with the existing weight and thrust?
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 1:48 pm

reidar76 wrote:
Airbus have never publicly talked about an A350-950F, but aviationweek.com cites "industry sources" and "briefed suppliers".


I’m not sure what to make of that, not seen a customer briefing discussing that, it might just be a Rupert knowing how suppliers cannot keep their traps shut.
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WIederling
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 2:03 pm

morrisond wrote:
Great find on the weight of the Wingboxes - so an A350XWB 319T Wingbox only weighs 5.1T? Yet Fred has the 352T 77X gaining 4T on top of the 77W which presumably would be about 7T as it lifts more but metal making it weigh about the same as the A380 wingbox that can lift what 575T?


77W, 777X is a full metal wingbox. for the 777x the loads should be significantly higher. ( longer span, more area.)
i.e. with the same overall dimensions the upgrade must be done solely by material thickness increases.
( I do wonder why the Al? they had the certification authority in their pocket to push a carbon upgrade.)

A380, A350 are full carbon wingboxes. ( imu the A380 a first ? )
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 2:30 pm

morrisond wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
zeke wrote:
Airbus has never talked about an airframe between the -900 and -1000 [...] “350-950”.


Airbus have never publicly talked about an A350-950F, but aviationweek.com cites "industry sources" and "briefed suppliers". They say Airbus is talking about an A350-950F. This possible new derivative is a shortened -1000 with a forward main deck cargo door. The overall length of the A350-950 would be just 1 feet longer than the 777-8.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... freighters

The proposed -950F derivative is sized between the larger A350-1000 and the smaller A350-900. According to industry sources the new variant will incorporate a new forward fuselage plug with a cargo door and local structural strengthening. The proposed hybrid aircraft, which is believed to be around 230 ft. in overall length compared to 219 ft. for the A350-900 and 242.1 ft. for the A350-1000, would utilize the larger variant’s six-wheel main landing gear design and higher-thrust Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engines.

According to suppliers briefed on the project, which was first disclosed by Reuters in March, the A350 derivative could enter service early in the second half of the decade if formally launched by year-end.

Although Airbus first proposed a freighter variant of the A350 in 2007, shortly after the launch of the new airliner program, this early derivative was configured with a performance similar to the MD-11F. Its development was deferred to give priority to the passenger models. Compared to the initial offering, the updated -950F would offer greater range and payload capability, and could enable Airbus to compete more effectively both with Boeing’s popular 777-200LR-based design as well as provide growth to match the 777-8F.


Good find.

So if they are similar in length (presumably same number of LD3's and Pallets - or it would have to be at least an 1.5M difference)


Inside it would be 1.8m longer than the 778XF if the outside lenght is 30cm longer, so +8 LDs.

Best regards
Thomas
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morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 3:15 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
reidar76 wrote:

Airbus have never publicly talked about an A350-950F, but aviationweek.com cites "industry sources" and "briefed suppliers". They say Airbus is talking about an A350-950F. This possible new derivative is a shortened -1000 with a forward main deck cargo door. The overall length of the A350-950 would be just 1 feet longer than the 777-8.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... freighters



Good find.

So if they are similar in length (presumably same number of LD3's and Pallets - or it would have to be at least an 1.5M difference)


Inside it would be 1.8m longer than the 778XF if the outside lenght is 30cm longer, so +8 LDs.

Best regards
Thomas


I'm not quite sure where you are getting your numbers from.

I can see where an 70M 350-950F would have room for 4 more LD3's in the belly (40) vs an 3M shorter 900 - but the 77F would be gaining 6M which should put the same 40 LD3's in the belly.

Is there a 1.8 difference up top in an 70M 778 vs a theoretical 70m 350?
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 7:17 pm

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Zeke's assumption on how much the passengers weigh or what is added to OEW is low.


Please go and look for yourself and see what Boeing and Airbus have out in their ACAPS for weights and then come back and tell us if 100 kg per person is low.

Please cite the source of this claim that 100 kg per person that I have used is low.

morrisond wrote:
The initial rumour was that its an 350-950 - somewhere in between the length of the 900 and 1000.


Airbus has never talked about an airframe between the -900 and -1000, they have talked about a shorter aircraft the -800 and a longer aircraft than the -1000.

Please cite the source of this claim of this “350-950”.


Here is an article on AINonline that discusses the possibility of a "A350-950F". It also seems that Airbus has been busy canvassing the air cargo customer base to determine interest in launching this new freighter. Naturally, Airbus will need a 50-frame firm order to launch, but they appear to be serious about entering this portion of the market.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... r-aircraft
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat May 08, 2021 8:58 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
It also seems that Airbus has been busy canvassing the air cargo customer base to determine interest in launching this new freighter.


It’s pretty normal for Boeing and Airbus to approach airlines once or twice a year with a sales pitch, this will cover all of their products. I have not seen anything about an “A350-950F”, and the Reuters article it is supposed to be based off from the previous month does not refer to an A350-950F.
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morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 12:24 pm

zeke wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
It also seems that Airbus has been busy canvassing the air cargo customer base to determine interest in launching this new freighter.


It’s pretty normal for Boeing and Airbus to approach airlines once or twice a year with a sales pitch, this will cover all of their products. I have not seen anything about an “A350-950F”, and the Reuters article it is supposed to be based off from the previous month does not refer to an A350-950F.


That's what you're going to hang your hat on?

What else would you call something that is between an 900 and 1000 in length or how would you refer to that so people understood what you meant?

A358F? Oops no sorry 8 as the third digit in a model designation on a freighter in this space will probably only be on the frame that dominates this space unless Airbus goes the extra mile to give the a350F the capability it needs to make it the obvious choice.

Another 330F probably won't cut it.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 12:26 pm

morrisond wrote:
zeke wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
It also seems that Airbus has been busy canvassing the air cargo customer base to determine interest in launching this new freighter.


It’s pretty normal for Boeing and Airbus to approach airlines once or twice a year with a sales pitch, this will cover all of their products. I have not seen anything about an “A350-950F”, and the Reuters article it is supposed to be based off from the previous month does not refer to an A350-950F.


That's what you're going to hang your hat on?

What else would you call something that is between an 900 and 1000 in length or how would you refer to that so people understood what you meant?

A358F? Oops no sorry 8 as the third digit in a model designation on a freighter in this space will probably only be on the frame that dominates this space unless Airbus goes the extra mile to give the a350F the capability it needs to make it the obvious choice.

Another 330F probably won't cut it.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... hter-study
There you go. Now you’ve seen it
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 1:09 pm

Opus99 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
zeke wrote:

It’s pretty normal for Boeing and Airbus to approach airlines once or twice a year with a sales pitch, this will cover all of their products. I have not seen anything about an “A350-950F”, and the Reuters article it is supposed to be based off from the previous month does not refer to an A350-950F.


That's what you're going to hang your hat on?

What else would you call something that is between an 900 and 1000 in length or how would you refer to that so people understood what you meant?

A358F? Oops no sorry 8 as the third digit in a model designation on a freighter in this space will probably only be on the frame that dominates this space unless Airbus goes the extra mile to give the a350F the capability it needs to make it the obvious choice.

Another 330F probably won't cut it.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... hter-study
There you go. Now you’ve seen it


Thanks!
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 1:38 pm

morrisond wrote:
That's what you're going to hang your hat on?


Why not ? Do you have a more authoritative source than the manufacture? Have you see the media make reference to an A350-1100, A350-2000, A350-8000 ?

The AW&ST article claims the Reuters article as the source, yet the Reuters article makes no reference to it.

Airbus has had the A350F in the lineup since launch it was always to share the -1000 wing, engine, and gear using the -900 forward and aft fuselage sections with modified side panels removing the passenger windows and doors and adding a cargo door. This may mean they simply have decided to keep the -1000 forward fuselage which is 6 frames (3.81m) longer, the -1000 forward hold has a capacity for 4 more LD3 or 2 more pallets
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 2:54 pm

morrisond wrote:
Another 330F probably won't cut it.

I think that is the thought ringing through heads at Airbus HQ. They don't want to do a A359F or A35XF (see, I can make up names and live to tell the tale) and end up second best. Yet that costs money, much more than just doing a A359F with A35K wing and gear as Zeke suggests, so they are in a conundrum, caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Same old problem: how can we get enough customers to buy enough of these so we can eventually show a profit?
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morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 3:01 pm

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
That's what you're going to hang your hat on?


Why not ? Do you have a more authoritative source than the manufacture? Have you see the media make reference to an A350-1100, A350-2000, A350-8000 ?

The AW&ST article claims the Reuters article as the source, yet the Reuters article makes no reference to it.

Airbus has had the A350F in the lineup since launch it was always to share the -1000 wing, engine, and gear using the -900 forward and aft fuselage sections with modified side panels removing the passenger windows and doors and adding a cargo door. This may mean they simply have decided to keep the -1000 forward fuselage which is 6 frames (3.81m) longer, the -1000 forward hold has a capacity for 4 more LD3 or 2 more pallets


You know what I meant. You were accusing me of making stuff up- that the 350F could be longer - and you have been shown that I was not.

Or are Media Articles now not allowed as well Wiki - but Medium is okay?

Just trying to understand what the rules are.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 4:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
Yet that costs money, much more than just doing a A359F with A35K wing and gear as Zeke suggests, so they are in a conundrum, caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Same old problem: how can we get enough customers to buy enough of these so we can eventually show a profit?


And yet according to you Boeing will be releasing a 764neoF and 77XF, they must be free to develop ?

You do realize the A350 side panels have no windows or door openings in them when manufactured, they are cut out with a water jet so they can be installed.
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FLALEFTY
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 5:15 pm

Revelation wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Another 330F probably won't cut it.

I think that is the thought ringing through heads at Airbus HQ. They don't want to do a A359F or A35XF (see, I can make up names and live to tell the tale) and end up second best. Yet that costs money, much more than just doing a A359F with A35K wing and gear as Zeke suggests, so they are in a conundrum, caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Same old problem: how can we get enough customers to buy enough of these so we can eventually show a profit?


If, or when Airbus chooses to launch an A350-derived freighter, I believe they will have to deal with the following issues with potential customers:

1) Amazon Prime Air - So far, Prime Air has been relying on ACMI's to handle their air freight. They tend to specify converted B767PF's or BCF's, and B738PF's. For intercontinental flying they have been mostly relying on various ACMI's chiefly using B744F's and BCF's, as needed. Since low costs are "prime" with Prime Air, I don't anticipate their current air freight strategy will change in the near future.

2) Atlas Air Group (including Atlas, Southern Air & Polar) - Currently the largest US-based ACMI, as well as being the major ACMI vendor for Prime Air and DHL. Their primary long-haul lifters are the cheap & plentiful B744F/BCF's. While the B744 freighters burn a lot of gas, they also have good range, carry plenty of payload and are cheap enough to park if freight demand cycles back down. If something newer & more efficient is needed, there are some B748F's and B777F's in the group's fleet to draw from. Atlas Group is like their customer, Prime Air, in that they are willing to keep costs low, to a fault.

3) UPS Airlines - For long-haul flying, UPS chose the B748F to connect their global hubs. Their B744F fleet is being gradually retired and replaced with the B748F's. The current CEO of UPS has already announced the company will be reducing CAPEX expenditures, which means they would be unlikely to launch a new freighter derivative in the near future. Also, UPS has been using MD-11's more on US domestic flights and less on intercontinental routes. The ability for the MD-11 to fit within the ramp space constraints at SDF, along with the MD-11's high payload capacity should keep it around until the end of the decade.

4) FedEx Express - The B777F is FedEx's main long-haul freighter. As they continue to add new B777F's to the fleet, they are steadily replacing their remaining MD-11's still doing long-haul work. Similar to their main competitor, FedEx's re-fleeting program is winding down. Also, like UPS, most of the remaining MD-11's have been reassigned to domestic routes.

5) DHL - They have long-haul services mostly flown with relatively-new B777F's operated by ACMI's AeroLogic, Southern Air and Kalitta Air. DHL also uses Polar Air's B748F's, B744F's and Kalitta's B744F's as needed. However, being a European-based company, DHL might be the primary target for Airbus as they seek a launch customer for a new long-haul freighter.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 7:24 pm

zeke wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Yet that costs money, much more than just doing a A359F with A35K wing and gear as Zeke suggests, so they are in a conundrum, caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Same old problem: how can we get enough customers to buy enough of these so we can eventually show a profit?

And yet according to you Boeing will be releasing a 764neoF and 77XF, they must be free to develop ?

I'd say the same thing for these as I'm saying about A350F, it's all about getting enough customers to order. If that happens the rest will follow. I'm pretty confident given the popularity of 763F and 777F that Boeing will get the launch orders they need, but time will tell.

zeke wrote:
You do realize the A350 side panels have no windows or door openings in them when manufactured, they are cut out with a water jet so they can be installed.

I hope you're not suggesting cargo doors are free to develop and test, nor a unique fuselage configuration either.

FLALEFTY wrote:
Revelation wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Another 330F probably won't cut it.

I think that is the thought ringing through heads at Airbus HQ. They don't want to do a A359F or A35XF (see, I can make up names and live to tell the tale) and end up second best. Yet that costs money, much more than just doing a A359F with A35K wing and gear as Zeke suggests, so they are in a conundrum, caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Same old problem: how can we get enough customers to buy enough of these so we can eventually show a profit?

If, or when Airbus chooses to launch an A350-derived freighter, I believe they will have to deal with the following issues with potential customers:

Thanks for the well thought-out post. It'll be interesting to see if DHL can form the nucleus of the A350F launch orders.
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JayinKitsap
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 7:44 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
Revelation wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Another 330F probably won't cut it.

I think that is the thought ringing through heads at Airbus HQ. They don't want to do a A359F or A35XF (see, I can make up names and live to tell the tale) and end up second best. Yet that costs money, much more than just doing a A359F with A35K wing and gear as Zeke suggests, so they are in a conundrum, caught between the proverbial rock and the hard place. Same old problem: how can we get enough customers to buy enough of these so we can eventually show a profit?


If, or when Airbus chooses to launch an A350-derived freighter, I believe they will have to deal with the following issues with potential customers:

1) Amazon Prime Air - So far, Prime Air has been relying on ACMI's to handle their air freight. They tend to specify converted B767PF's or BCF's, and B738PF's. For intercontinental flying they have been mostly relying on various ACMI's chiefly using B744F's and BCF's, as needed. Since low costs are "prime" with Prime Air, I don't anticipate their current air freight strategy will change in the near future.

2) Atlas Air Group (including Atlas, Southern Air & Polar) - Currently the largest US-based ACMI, as well as being the major ACMI vendor for Prime Air and DHL. Their primary long-haul lifters are the cheap & plentiful B744F/BCF's. While the B744 freighters burn a lot of gas, they also have good range, carry plenty of payload and are cheap enough to park if freight demand cycles back down. If something newer & more efficient is needed, there are some B748F's and B777F's in the group's fleet to draw from. Atlas Group is like their customer, Prime Air, in that they are willing to keep costs low, to a fault.

3) UPS Airlines - For long-haul flying, UPS chose the B748F to connect their global hubs. Their B744F fleet is being gradually retired and replaced with the B748F's. The current CEO of UPS has already announced the company will be reducing CAPEX expenditures, which means they would be unlikely to launch a new freighter derivative in the near future. Also, UPS has been using MD-11's more on US domestic flights and less on intercontinental routes. The ability for the MD-11 to fit within the ramp space constraints at SDF, along with the MD-11's high payload capacity should keep it around until the end of the decade.

4) FedEx Express - The B777F is FedEx's main long-haul freighter. As they continue to add new B777F's to the fleet, they are steadily replacing their remaining MD-11's still doing long-haul work. Similar to their main competitor, FedEx's re-fleeting program is winding down. Also, like UPS, most of the remaining MD-11's have been reassigned to domestic routes.

5) DHL - They have long-haul services mostly flown with relatively-new B777F's operated by ACMI's AeroLogic, Southern Air and Kalitta Air. DHL also uses Polar Air's B748F's, B744F's and Kalitta's B744F's as needed. However, being a European-based company, DHL might be the primary target for Airbus as they seek a launch customer for a new long-haul freighter.


in recap:
Amazon Air to date has not leased or bought any freighter larger than the 767, nor have they bought any new build freighters.to date. If they go larger it seems the 777W P2F would be the most probable choice.

Atlas Air has a large fleet, but it appears to me they are not planning for new orders in the near future.

UPS - the CEO has mentioned several times that new capex is not planned for now.

FedEX - it seems that if any new are ordered it will be 77W P2F's.

DHL - they are a possibility for a new order, but would they order 25 or more?


There has been a lull in new build freighter orders of late. The 767F has 40 orders since 1 JAN 18, the 777F has 75, but just 13 of those are since 1 JAN 20, Silk Way just ordered 5 77F's not in the listing. Getting 50 new orders basically is 3 years of total new build orders for freighters.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 8:11 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
in recap:
Amazon Air to date has not leased or bought any freighter larger than the 767, nor have they bought any new build freighters.to date. If they go larger it seems the 777W P2F would be the most probable choice.

Atlas Air has a large fleet, but it appears to me they are not planning for new orders in the near future.

UPS - the CEO has mentioned several times that new capex is not planned for now.

FedEX - it seems that if any new are ordered it will be 77W P2F's.

DHL - they are a possibility for a new order, but would they order 25 or more?

There has been a lull in new build freighter orders of late. The 767F has 40 orders since 1 JAN 18, the 777F has 75, but just 13 of those are since 1 JAN 20, Silk Way just ordered 5 77F's not in the listing. Getting 50 new orders basically is 3 years of total new build orders for freighters.

Thanks for the excellent re-cap.

It'll be interesting to see if FX and 5X get comfortable with 77WF. They have both been wiling to buy new rather than used, but the price/performance for the 77WF may be too good to pass up. They both have MD-11F that will probably go later in the decade, one would think. That may be the eventual A350F vs 77XF battle ground.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 9:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
in recap:
Amazon Air to date has not leased or bought any freighter larger than the 767, nor have they bought any new build freighters.to date. If they go larger it seems the 777W P2F would be the most probable choice.

Atlas Air has a large fleet, but it appears to me they are not planning for new orders in the near future.

UPS - the CEO has mentioned several times that new capex is not planned for now.

FedEX - it seems that if any new are ordered it will be 77W P2F's.

DHL - they are a possibility for a new order, but would they order 25 or more?

There has been a lull in new build freighter orders of late. The 767F has 40 orders since 1 JAN 18, the 777F has 75, but just 13 of those are since 1 JAN 20, Silk Way just ordered 5 77F's not in the listing. Getting 50 new orders basically is 3 years of total new build orders for freighters.

Thanks for the excellent re-cap.

It'll be interesting to see if FX and 5X get comfortable with 77WF. They have both been wiling to buy new rather than used, but the price/performance for the 77WF may be too good to pass up. They both have MD-11F that will probably go later in the decade, one would think. That may be the eventual A350F vs 77XF battle ground.


What will also help Boeing's pricing is that they have already written a lot of the program costs off on the 777x - that will definitely help with what they are able to offer them for and they will want to get the line rates up. That plus an 360T MTOW will help.

I still don't think we will see either 778F or 350-950F until later in the decade though. Airbus will have to do some serious work to raise the capacity of the 350F - but I hope they do - I'm looking forward to seeing either 134" Ge9x's or 140" Ultrafans on that relatively small wing.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun May 09, 2021 11:12 pm

morrisond wrote:
Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
in recap:
Amazon Air to date has not leased or bought any freighter larger than the 767, nor have they bought any new build freighters.to date. If they go larger it seems the 777W P2F would be the most probable choice.

Atlas Air has a large fleet, but it appears to me they are not planning for new orders in the near future.

UPS - the CEO has mentioned several times that new capex is not planned for now.

FedEX - it seems that if any new are ordered it will be 77W P2F's.

DHL - they are a possibility for a new order, but would they order 25 or more?

There has been a lull in new build freighter orders of late. The 767F has 40 orders since 1 JAN 18, the 777F has 75, but just 13 of those are since 1 JAN 20, Silk Way just ordered 5 77F's not in the listing. Getting 50 new orders basically is 3 years of total new build orders for freighters.

Thanks for the excellent re-cap.

It'll be interesting to see if FX and 5X get comfortable with 77WF. They have both been wiling to buy new rather than used, but the price/performance for the 77WF may be too good to pass up. They both have MD-11F that will probably go later in the decade, one would think. That may be the eventual A350F vs 77XF battle ground.


What will also help Boeing's pricing is that they have already written a lot of the program costs off on the 777x - that will definitely help with what they are able to offer them for and they will want to get the line rates up. That plus an 360T MTOW will help.

I still don't think we will see either 778F or 350-950F until later in the decade though. Airbus will have to do some serious work to raise the capacity of the 350F - but I hope they do - I'm looking forward to seeing either 134" Ge9x's or 140" Ultrafans on that relatively small wing.


Why should that help Boeing in regards to pricing. Any company accounting in a normal standard way does that. In the case of the 777X, the early deferred production cost were written of, because Boeing did not expect to recover those cost inside the expected production run. That actually does not bode well for the program and therefor a 777-8F.
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 1:17 am

mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Thanks for the excellent re-cap.

It'll be interesting to see if FX and 5X get comfortable with 77WF. They have both been wiling to buy new rather than used, but the price/performance for the 77WF may be too good to pass up. They both have MD-11F that will probably go later in the decade, one would think. That may be the eventual A350F vs 77XF battle ground.


What will also help Boeing's pricing is that they have already written a lot of the program costs off on the 777x - that will definitely help with what they are able to offer them for and they will want to get the line rates up. That plus an 360T MTOW will help.

I still don't think we will see either 778F or 350-950F until later in the decade though. Airbus will have to do some serious work to raise the capacity of the 350F - but I hope they do - I'm looking forward to seeing either 134" Ge9x's or 140" Ultrafans on that relatively small wing.


Why should that help Boeing in regards to pricing. Any company accounting in a normal standard way does that. In the case of the 777X, the early deferred production cost were written of, because Boeing did not expect to recover those cost inside the expected production run. That actually does not bode well for the program and therefor a 777-8F.


Because it helps them be the Financially engineered company you believe them to be. By writing off the costs now they can sell frames lower than what they would have had to before and still show a profit.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 1:32 am

morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:

What will also help Boeing's pricing is that they have already written a lot of the program costs off on the 777x - that will definitely help with what they are able to offer them for and they will want to get the line rates up. That plus an 360T MTOW will help.

I still don't think we will see either 778F or 350-950F until later in the decade though. Airbus will have to do some serious work to raise the capacity of the 350F - but I hope they do - I'm looking forward to seeing either 134" Ge9x's or 140" Ultrafans on that relatively small wing.


Why should that help Boeing in regards to pricing. Any company accounting in a normal standard way does that. In the case of the 777X, the early deferred production cost were written of, because Boeing did not expect to recover those cost inside the expected production run. That actually does not bode well for the program and therefor a 777-8F.


Because it helps them be the Financially engineered company you believe them to be. By writing off the costs now they can sell frames lower than what they would have had to before and still show a profit.


Than according to your argument, the 787 is at a cost disadvantage against wide body Airbus frames due to the not yet cleared deferred cost. I believe at that time in the discussion your argument was, that Boeings pricing is not influenced by deferred cost.
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 1:46 am

mjoelnir wrote:
morrisond wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Why should that help Boeing in regards to pricing. Any company accounting in a normal standard way does that. In the case of the 777X, the early deferred production cost were written of, because Boeing did not expect to recover those cost inside the expected production run. That actually does not bode well for the program and therefor a 777-8F.


Because it helps them be the Financially engineered company you believe them to be. By writing off the costs now they can sell frames lower than what they would have had to before and still show a profit.


Than according to your argument, the 787 is at a cost disadvantage against wide body Airbus frames due to the not yet cleared deferred cost. I believe at that time in the discussion your argument was, that Boeings pricing is not influenced by deferred cost.


It's a pricing disadvantage (not a cost disadvantage) if Boeing wants to still show an annual profit from the program. The 777X won't have that issue.
 
Sokes
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 2:03 am

mjoelnir wrote:
In the case of the 777X, the early deferred production cost were written of, because Boeing did not expect to recover those cost inside the expected production run. That actually does not bode well for the program and therefor a 777-8F.

Or Boeing didn't want to go the B787 way, selling huge quantities at loss.
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Sokes
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 2:38 am

Could an A350-950 be a replacement for the -1000?
The -1000 doesn't sell well. I guess it's overstretched with length/ fuselage hight = 12.
A 70,1 m long plane would be 11,5, the -900 has 11.
However the B777-300ER has length/ fuselage width of 11,9. That's very long. Strange that Boeing stretched it further.

Maybe the strain on the A350-1000 engine is too much. A passenger version of the -950 could have 300 t MTOW, the freighter version 320 t as today's -1000.
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 5:55 am

Sokes wrote:
Could an A350-950 be a replacement for the -1000?
The -1000 doesn't sell well. I guess it's overstretched with length/ fuselage hight = 12.
A 70,1 m long plane would be 11,5, the -900 has 11.
However the B777-300ER has length/ fuselage width of 11,9. That's very long. Strange that Boeing stretched it further.

Maybe the strain on the A350-1000 engine is too much. A passenger version of the -950 could have 300 t MTOW, the freighter version 320 t as today's -1000.


Flysmart (the Airbus performance software) says the current thrust levels on the -1000 are good to around 350 tonnes MTOW on a standard ISA day at sea level. That is a buffer is for conditions where the density altitude is greater than sea level ISA.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
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Taxi645
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 6:00 am

Sokes wrote:
Could an A350-950 be a replacement for the -1000?
The -1000 doesn't sell well. I guess it's overstretched with length/ fuselage hight = 12.
A 70,1 m long plane would be 11,5, the -900 has 11.
However the B777-300ER has length/ fuselage width of 11,9. That's very long. Strange that Boeing stretched it further.

Maybe the strain on the A350-1000 engine is too much. A passenger version of the -950 could have 300 t MTOW, the freighter version 320 t as today's -1000.


I reckon it's not so much the stretch but the the desire to match the 777 cababilty is hurting the 1000 in two way's:

1 The growth of the cability has somewhat hurt efficiency (engine's, induced drag, mission's that don't need the cability).

2 These efficiency hits reduce the CASM advantage a larger plane needs to be competitive with smaller planes.

What does not help is that due to Covid the market for large planes is weak at the moment.

When Covid effect has minimalize a simple stretch could reduced the CASM of the 319T MTOW version. Who know's, maybe around that time we'll see Airbus own folding wing and ultrafan thrown in for good measure.
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 6:23 am

Taxi645 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Could an A350-950 be a replacement for the -1000?
The -1000 doesn't sell well. I guess it's overstretched with length/ fuselage hight = 12.
A 70,1 m long plane would be 11,5, the -900 has 11.
However the B777-300ER has length/ fuselage width of 11,9. That's very long. Strange that Boeing stretched it further.

Maybe the strain on the A350-1000 engine is too much. A passenger version of the -950 could have 300 t MTOW, the freighter version 320 t as today's -1000.


I reckon it's not so much the stretch but the the desire to match the 777 cababilty is hurting the 1000 in two way's:

1 The growth of the cability has somewhat hurt efficiency (engine's, induced drag, mission's that don't need the cability).

2 These efficiency hits reduce the CASM advantage a larger plane needs to be competitive with smaller planes.

What does not help is that due to Covid the market for large planes is weak at the moment.

When Covid effect has minimalize a simple stretch could reduced the CASM of the 319T MTOW version. Who know's, maybe around that time we'll see Airbus own folding wing and ultrafan thrown in for good measure.


Maybe but that would support a stretch of the -900, not a shrink of the -1000, which seems to be the basis of the suggested freighter.
 
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flee
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 6:25 am

Sokes wrote:
Could an A350-950 be a replacement for the -1000?
The -1000 doesn't sell well. I guess it's overstretched with length/ fuselage hight = 12.
A 70,1 m long plane would be 11,5, the -900 has 11.
However the B777-300ER has length/ fuselage width of 11,9. That's very long. Strange that Boeing stretched it further.

Maybe the strain on the A350-1000 engine is too much. A passenger version of the -950 could have 300 t MTOW, the freighter version 320 t as today's -1000.

I don't think you can come to the conclusion that the length of an aircraft determines its sales numbers. Many airlines that need this high capacity and long range have either no urgency to replace their existing fleet (B77W) or have already ordered the B779.

The A350-1000 will still have many sales battles to fight when airlines that have not ordered their B77W replacements start to look into it. Also, airlines that are retiring their A380s may need to order smaller VLAs as replacements.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 6:39 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
Could an A350-950 be a replacement for the -1000?
The -1000 doesn't sell well. I guess it's overstretched with length/ fuselage hight = 12.
A 70,1 m long plane would be 11,5, the -900 has 11.
However the B777-300ER has length/ fuselage width of 11,9. That's very long. Strange that Boeing stretched it further.

Maybe the strain on the A350-1000 engine is too much. A passenger version of the -950 could have 300 t MTOW, the freighter version 320 t as today's -1000.


I reckon it's not so much the stretch but the the desire to match the 777 cababilty is hurting the 1000 in two way's:

1 The growth of the cability has somewhat hurt efficiency (engine's, induced drag, mission's that don't need the cability).

2 These efficiency hits reduce the CASM advantage a larger plane needs to be competitive with smaller planes.

What does not help is that due to Covid the market for large planes is weak at the moment.

When Covid effect has minimalize a simple stretch could reduced the CASM of the 319T MTOW version. Who know's, maybe around that time we'll see Airbus own folding wing and ultrafan thrown in for good measure.


Maybe but that would support a stretch of the -900, not a shrink of the -1000, which seems to be the basis of the suggested freighter.


Yes, I do also expect a simple stretch of the 900 long term. To meet the requirements of a successful freighter, it would need it's own configuration.
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 11:25 am

Taxi645 wrote:
Yes, I do also expect a simple stretch of the 900 long term. To meet the requirements of a successful freighter, it would need it's own configuration.


I would rather expect a simple shrink of the -1000 for a freighter like putting the -900 rear section on the -1000. The -1000 is already designed for much higher weights than the -900. If they could achieve a empty weight of 140 tonnes for the freighter and a MZFW of 240+ tonnes at the expense of cycles it should be very competitive. The maximum payload range (around 100 tonnes) would be very similar to a 744F, and a package freighter range (80 tonnes) of around 14-15 hours.

I think next year the 748F stops production, and in 2028 Annex 16 Vol 3 will stop the 77F as we know it today from being produced (The GE90-110 produces about 5 times higher emissions the the XWB https://www.easa.europa.eu/domains/envi ... s-databank). It will mean only aircraft with newer generation engines like the GEnx/GE9X, Trent 1000/7000/XWB will be allowed to power new WB freighters.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 1:00 pm

zeke wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Yes, I do also expect a simple stretch of the 900 long term. To meet the requirements of a successful freighter, it would need it's own configuration.


I would rather expect a simple shrink of the -1000 for a freighter like putting the -900 rear section on the -1000. The -1000 is already designed for much higher weights than the -900. If they could achieve a empty weight of 140 tonnes for the freighter and a MZFW of 240+ tonnes at the expense of cycles it should be very competitive. The maximum payload range (around 100 tonnes) would be very similar to a 744F, and a package freighter range (80 tonnes) of around 14-15 hours.

I think next year the 748F stops production, and in 2028 Annex 16 Vol 3 will stop the 77F as we know it today from being produced (The GE90-110 produces about 5 times higher emissions the the XWB https://www.easa.europa.eu/domains/envi ... s-databank). It will mean only aircraft with newer generation engines like the GEnx/GE9X, Trent 1000/7000/XWB will be allowed to power new WB freighters.


You mean we actually agree on a number? (140T OEW weight of a potential A350-950F)

Could they get to 240+T MZFW with the existing structure without OEW growing a bunch given that it would only be about a 3M shrink? The 77F only gained about 10T MZFW with a 10M shrink and the MZFW of the 351 is 223T.

Isn't the 744F 124T? To me that is the Big market (about 212 in service) and MD11F and the conversions at 92T of another 53 I think which is why I think MTOW and thrust might have to grow so that it can haul say 115T and put it in a space slightly above a potential 360T 778F which might be able to lift 106-112T with the same volume.
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 4:50 pm

BTW an 80M Long 350-1100 340T 105K Engined A350-1100 would make quite the passenger aircraft.
 
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Taxi645
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 5:22 pm

zeke wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Yes, I do also expect a simple stretch of the 900 long term. To meet the requirements of a successful freighter, it would need it's own configuration.


I would rather expect a simple shrink of the -1000 for a freighter like putting the -900 rear section on the -1000.


Yes, I don''t think we disagree. Freighter 319T ("A350-950F"). On the passenger side (once ultrafan generation engines are put on the A350) I suspect a 280T "A350-950" and a 319T A350-1050".
Innovation is seeing opportunity before obstacle.
 
texl1649
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 5:32 pm

When was the last time a RR engine was sold in any reasonable quantities on a turbofan (or turbojet) freighter? Curious. Thx all. It seems to me there has been something about their service contracts (power by hour I guess, lately), that don’t work well for dedicated freighters.
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 6:37 pm

texl1649 wrote:
When was the last time a RR engine was sold in any reasonable quantities on a turbofan (or turbojet) freighter? Curious. Thx all. It seems to me there has been something about their service contracts (power by hour I guess, lately), that don’t work well for dedicated freighters.


Past performance does not guarantee future results, said a CEO of an airline with lots of 737-Max aircraft.

Point being, every deal needs to be assessed on its own merits.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 6:43 pm

zeke wrote:
Taxi645 wrote:
Yes, I do also expect a simple stretch of the 900 long term. To meet the requirements of a successful freighter, it would need it's own configuration.


I would rather expect a simple shrink of the -1000 for a freighter like putting the -900 rear section on the -1000. The -1000 is already designed for much higher weights than the -900. If they could achieve a empty weight of 140 tonnes for the freighter and a MZFW of 240+ tonnes at the expense of cycles it should be very competitive. The maximum payload range (around 100 tonnes) would be very similar to a 744F, and a package freighter range (80 tonnes) of around 14-15 hours.

I think next year the 748F stops production, and in 2028 Annex 16 Vol 3 will stop the 77F as we know it today from being produced (The GE90-110 produces about 5 times higher emissions the the XWB https://www.easa.europa.eu/domains/envi ... s-databank). It will mean only aircraft with newer generation engines like the GEnx/GE9X, Trent 1000/7000/XWB will be allowed to power new WB freighters.


I agree with you on what the new A350F might look like. It would probably be similar in design concept to the B777F, which combined the fuselage of the B77E, with the engines, strengthened landing gear and wing mods of the B77W. With its more modern engines and lighter comparable OEW compared to B777-based competitors, I expect the new A350F will be the best performer for those cargo airlines wealthy enough to buy it.

As for the new EASA emissions standards due to take place in 2028, I expect the B777F & B767F will soon follow the B748F out of production. The B777F will probably still be offered up close to the deadline, but I think what's currently left on the FedEx order will finish up production. The remains of the FedEx order for the B767F's will also likely close out the non-military production of the B767. This will clear the field and allow Boeing and Airbus to go head-to-head between the B77XF and A350F to determine the future for long-haul freighters.

What would be interesting is if the EU and EASA take a hardline and refuses to grandfather in ops by older freighter types after 2028. Would this lead FedEx and UPS to buy the new A350F, or would it lead to enough nationalistic backlash in the US that those big orders would go to Boeing's B77XF, performance comparisons be damned?
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 6:47 pm

morrisond wrote:
You mean we actually agree on a number? (140T OEW weight of a potential A350-950F)


In reply 355 you said "an A350-950F is 150T OEW", there is obviously no agreement. You may recall I stated that 150 tonnes was greater than the weight of our -1000 passenger aircraft, that is before removing some fuselage, some galleys, toilets, seats, windows, doors etc etc.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 7:02 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
As for the new EASA emissions standards due to take place in 2028, I expect the B777F & B767F will soon follow the B748F out of production. The B777F will probably still be offered up close to the deadline, but I think what's currently left on the FedEx order will finish up production. The remains of the FedEx order for the B767F's will also likely close out the non-military production of the B767. This will clear the field and allow Boeing and Airbus to go head-to-head between the B77XF and A350F to determine the future for long-haul freighters.


Going forward for the 767 to remain in the market it needs to be powered by either a GEnx or Trent 7000, both of which IMHO are too much engine for the airframe (in terms of weight/diameter/thrust). So I see a likely Boeing offering a 787 based freighter in that segment.

For the 777F I think GE could do a tech insert from the GE9X on the GE90-110/115 to keep the in service 77F/77L/77W competitive with the Trent XWB. GE has done this sort of thing before.

This is my opinion, not something I have seen/read.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
texl1649
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 7:44 pm

zeke wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
When was the last time a RR engine was sold in any reasonable quantities on a turbofan (or turbojet) freighter? Curious. Thx all. It seems to me there has been something about their service contracts (power by hour I guess, lately), that don’t work well for dedicated freighters.


Past performance does not guarantee future results, said a CEO of an airline with lots of 737-Max aircraft.

Point being, every deal needs to be assessed on its own merits.


Sure, and that statement is included in basically every single quarterly statement given by a publicly held airline. But, the underlying assumption of the thread here is that RR can just, via a fresh offering, crack a market it has not ever held a significant stake in, is my point. I am not sure that is correct, particularly when the airframer also has never had a large cargo market share.

The flip side is that Rolls has really struggled with new models for widebody pax airlines the past 15 years, and I would think strategically it might make more sense to put future new offerings on a freighter first.
 
smartplane
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 8:13 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
zeke wrote:
I think next year the 748F stops production, and in 2028 Annex 16 Vol 3 will stop the 77F as we know it today from being produced (The GE90-110 produces about 5 times higher emissions the the XWB https://www.easa.europa.eu/domains/envi ... s-databank). It will mean only aircraft with newer generation engines like the GEnx/GE9X, Trent 1000/7000/XWB will be allowed to power new WB freighters.


As for the new EASA emissions standards due to take place in 2028, I expect the B777F & B767F will soon follow the B748F out of production. The B777F will probably still be offered up close to the deadline, but I think what's currently left on the FedEx order will finish up production. The remains of the FedEx order for the B767F's will also likely close out the non-military production of the B767. This will clear the field and allow Boeing and Airbus to go head-to-head between the B77XF and A350F to determine the future for long-haul freighters.

What would be interesting is if the EU and EASA take a hardline and refuses to grandfather in ops by older freighter types after 2028. Would this lead FedEx and UPS to buy the new A350F, or would it lead to enough nationalistic backlash in the US that those big orders would go to Boeing's B77XF, performance comparisons be damned?

Pre-Covid the view seemed to be that extending the life of / re-purposing non-compliant aircraft would be unaffected. That still holds.

During Covid, the position has changed, predominantly by influence. For example, World Bank participants have been requested not to fund (directly or via guarantees and other means), non-compliant aircraft. Commercial financiers have been briefed on plans to rank / highlight based on red, yellow and green funding.
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon May 10, 2021 9:40 pm

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
You mean we actually agree on a number? (140T OEW weight of a potential A350-950F)


In reply 355 you said "an A350-950F is 150T OEW", there is obviously no agreement. You may recall I stated that 150 tonnes was greater than the weight of our -1000 passenger aircraft, that is before removing some fuselage, some galleys, toilets, seats, windows, doors etc etc.


You do know this a discussion forum and that peoples views can evolve over time don't you? In subsequent posts my view changed.

Yes I was initially using an OEW weight of 150T based on OEW weight from wiki of 155T for an A351. The difference between an 77W and 77F in OEW weight is about 2.35T per meter and the difference in length is 10M.

We are only talking about a difference in length of about 3M in this case (it's going to be some multiple of 1.53M (the width of an LD3). Given that an A351 isn't as heavy per meter I was assuming that maybe 2T per meter was more reasonable x3 = 6T but then add in a bit more so that it could lift more than one would assume the MZFW would grow from an A351 which is only 223T. I called it 230T.

Not unreasonable. Then you pointed out the weight was lower based on your experience so I started using your lower OEW weights in subsequent posts and got down to 140T which I thought might be a little light but close enough.

However my question still stands to get an MZFW of 240T+ - is an OEW weight of 140T still reasonable? I would assume OEW weight would have to grow a bit as the fuselage would need to be strengthened to carry those loads.

Also if an 744F can carry 124T and that is the target market is 100ishT a reasonable target when the 778F could carry more with the same volume?

Let me guess - the 6 747-400ERF's you have in your fleet never load more than 100T therefore the other 210 flying in the world never need to either?
 
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CCA
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 2:21 am

Just looked at a ERF loaded with 115T empty weight 160T
Enthusiast
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 4:35 am

CCA wrote:
Just looked at a ERF loaded with 115T empty weight 160T


Is it not more like 128 tonnes payload ? MZFW at 288 tonnes and empty at 160 tonnes ?
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949

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