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tommy1808
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 5:01 am

morrisond wrote:
zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
You mean we actually agree on a number? (140T OEW weight of a potential A350-950F)


In reply 355 you said "an A350-950F is 150T OEW", there is obviously no agreement. You may recall I stated that 150 tonnes was greater than the weight of our -1000 passenger aircraft, that is before removing some fuselage, some galleys, toilets, seats, windows, doors etc etc.


We are only talking about a difference in length of about 3M in this case (it's going to be some multiple of 1.53M (the width of an LD3). Given that an A351 isn't as heavy per meter I was assuming that maybe 2T per meter was more reasonable x3 = 6T but then add in a bit more so that it could lift more than one would assume the MZFW would grow from an A351 which is only 223T. I called it 230T.


Turning a 77W into an 77ERSF drops empty weight by 15t*, and while the windows are gone, the strengthening is still there, and with the same length. Lets call it 20t total. So 130t OEW for the A350F with 93t payload with 96t fuel over some 5700nm without changing MZFW. On here it is often claimed that the 77F usually bulks out before it runs out of payload, so that may already be well enough.
Airbus doesn´t use dynamic payload on the A350, but on the A330 you can swap one ton of MTOW for one ton of MZFW, as that effectively limits the use of the Center tank. If i understand the A350 center tank correctly, it always includes some of the tankage in the inner wings, so lets say you need to drop 1.5 tons of MTOW for one ton of MZFW. ~105t [email protected] TOW over 3600nm without spending money on strengthening. Carrying that over something close to 5000nm shouldn´t be all to difficult without further MTOW increase.

best regards
Thomas

*https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/default/files/2019-12/777-300ERSF%20Brochure.pdf
 
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CCA
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 6:32 am

Yes can carry more but generally it’s volume fills up just before it becomes weight limited.
 
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CCA
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 7:05 am

It’s a variable MZFW above 277, MTOW starts reducing so 117 is about the maximum if you want to get MTOW. At 288 ZFW the MTOW reduces to a little over 367 so loads float between 115 & 128 but usually it’s volume fills up prior to reaching 117 which is suitable for CX and the type of freight they carry.
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 1:21 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
zeke wrote:

In reply 355 you said "an A350-950F is 150T OEW", there is obviously no agreement. You may recall I stated that 150 tonnes was greater than the weight of our -1000 passenger aircraft, that is before removing some fuselage, some galleys, toilets, seats, windows, doors etc etc.


We are only talking about a difference in length of about 3M in this case (it's going to be some multiple of 1.53M (the width of an LD3). Given that an A351 isn't as heavy per meter I was assuming that maybe 2T per meter was more reasonable x3 = 6T but then add in a bit more so that it could lift more than one would assume the MZFW would grow from an A351 which is only 223T. I called it 230T.


Turning a 77W into an 77ERSF drops empty weight by 15t*, and while the windows are gone, the strengthening is still there, and with the same length. Lets call it 20t total. So 130t OEW for the A350F with 93t payload with 96t fuel over some 5700nm without changing MZFW. On here it is often claimed that the 77F usually bulks out before it runs out of payload, so that may already be well enough.
Airbus doesn´t use dynamic payload on the A350, but on the A330 you can swap one ton of MTOW for one ton of MZFW, as that effectively limits the use of the Center tank. If i understand the A350 center tank correctly, it always includes some of the tankage in the inner wings, so lets say you need to drop 1.5 tons of MTOW for one ton of MZFW. ~105t [email protected] TOW over 3600nm without spending money on strengthening. Carrying that over something close to 5000nm shouldn´t be all to difficult without further MTOW increase.

best regards
Thomas

*https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/default/files/2019-12/777-300ERSF%20Brochure.pdf


Assuming you can trade fuel in the center tank for MZFW on the A350 you are forgetting about the MLW restriction of 236T and the need to include some fuel reserves. As Zeke points out that is about 7T and that takes your number back down to 99T if you also assume you can get it to 130T which is debatable (the change from the 77W to a pure freighter that is 10M shorter the 77F would suggest the 350-950F would be more like 140T).

I don't see how you can get to 5,000NM with 99T without increasing OEW which will cut into that range number, which means lower lift.

That MLW restriction may be the achilles heal of an A350-950F leading to stronger gear/stronger structure etc...

Which still doesn't do much for you if you are targeting the 744F replacement market, you have to compete with Cheap 77ERSF's for which there will be a massive supply of frames available if high density is not important to you, and the 77F is still available for another 6 years. The bulk of the 77W are less than 10 years old.

However if you make it the most capable new build (115T of lift) that would give you something unique and there could be a market for that.

You could also bury the cost of the changes in a reengine/lengthening/bump up the MTOW of the A350. Build 70M Passenger and Freighter 950 Variants and an 80M Passenger Model that could give you comparable capacity to an 779 assuming you stick with 9W.

You also have to wonder whether or not Airbus could pull the same trick as Boeing and eek out some more space inside by sculpting the Fuselage frames to make 10W more feasible.

By burying the cost in a reneging lengthening program you don't have to amortize that cost which I think the articles said could be upwards of $2-3Billion over a very small number of frames (50-100). That could be $20-$60 Million per frame and the 350 is not a cheap frame.

It works a lot better when you do it as a combined program with the passenger models and say the total cost is now $5 B - but it's amortized over 500-1000 frames which is only $5-10 Million each. That seems a lot more reasonable.
 
tommy1808
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 1:41 pm

morrisond wrote:
the need to include some fuel reserves. As Zeke points out that is about 7T and that takes your number back down to 99T.


There is room for 50t of fuel outside the center tank, so fuel reserves on landing are irrelevant to how much fuel actually drags the fuse down.

best regards
Thomas
 
morrisond
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue May 11, 2021 1:59 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
the need to include some fuel reserves. As Zeke points out that is about 7T and that takes your number back down to 99T.


There is room for 50t of fuel outside the center tank, so fuel reserves on landing are irrelevant to how much fuel actually drags the fuse down.

best regards
Thomas


Yes - but you can't take land with 105T of Cargo and fuel reserves and be legal if you assume OEW weight of 130T.
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:25 am

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e=url_link

Airbus wants to start marketing it’s 350 next month and will seek board approval.

They are still working on securing enough customers for lunch.

They are looking to US customers such as FedEx and UPS but when the launch the aircraft will depend on when they are able to gather enough customers.
 
Noshow
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:35 am

That's the end of the A330.
 
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flee
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:56 am

Noshow wrote:
That's the end of the A330.

The widebody market is virtually dead at the moment. Airbus needs to make sure that the A350 continues to be in production. The A330 has had a good run and made good money for them and it has to come to an end some day. The A350 still needs to earn its keep - that is why Airbus is focusing on improving its marketability and sales.
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:25 am

flee wrote:
Noshow wrote:
That's the end of the A330.

The widebody market is virtually dead at the moment. Airbus needs to make sure that the A350 continues to be in production. .


Likely by the time the freighter is certified the market for passenger versions will have recovered
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:47 am

morrisond wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
the need to include some fuel reserves. As Zeke points out that is about 7T and that takes your number back down to 99T.


There is room for 50t of fuel outside the center tank, so fuel reserves on landing are irrelevant to how much fuel actually drags the fuse down.

best regards
Thomas


Yes - but you can't take land with 105T of Cargo and fuel reserves and be legal if you assume OEW weight of 130T.


why not? Are you perhaps confusing OEW with something else, perhaps MZFW for example?
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:22 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-09/airbus-set-to-move-ahead-with-a350-freighter-within-weeks?sref=1Ty6BxSV&utm_source=url_link

Airbus wants to start marketing it’s 350 next month and will seek board approval.

They are still working on securing enough customers for lunch.

They are looking to US customers such as FedEx and UPS but when the launch the aircraft will depend on when they are able to gather enough customers.

TFA says:

Airbus SE is poised to begin taking orders for a freighter version of its A350 wide-body as soon as next month, in a challenge to Boeing Co.’s dominance in the market for dedicated cargo aircraft.

The European planemaker has been speaking to more than a dozen potential customers and will seek board authorization to market the new plane in the coming weeks, provided it can line up enough commitments, according to people familiar with the matter. The program could officially launch by year-end, said the people, who sought anonymity discussing confidential matters.
...
The company is focusing its efforts on the U.S., and Airbus commercial chief Christian Scherer has met with FedEx Chairman Fred Smith to pitch the plane, the people said. The company is also pursuing UPS. Both companies declined to comment.

I'm trying to find what is new. The fact they give a timeline is new. The fact that Scherer has met with Smith is news to me at least. Yet again we have the "if" clause, they need launch commitments and I'm having a hard time seeing FX and 5X make the commitment now. Both are coming off a long run of buying 777F/748F and all other things being equal I would not expect them to be in the market at this point in time. I get it that QR could very well commit, but are they enough business to launch an all-new freighter off of?

Maybe Airbus is so desperate to get into this market they will offer eye watering prices to induce sales? Maybe Faury sees making a strategic blow against the entrenched leader as being good for his company's image as well as his own? Yet, is making a big move in the freighter market much of an image builder?

Noshow wrote:
That's the end of the A330.

I don't see how this changes the future of A330 at all. A330ceo and A330F were already dead. A330MRTT gets occasional orders. A330neo has 331 orders and 61 deliveries ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... deliveries ). Even if you knock off ~100 orders as bogus (Iran, AAX) they have enough orders to tick over at their 2/month rate for years to come. Then we can see if A330neo can get more bottom feeder orders as more A330ceo leave the industry. If not, so what, it was a nice run.

Heavierthanair wrote:
flee wrote:
The widebody market is virtually dead at the moment. Airbus needs to make sure that the A350 continues to be in production. .

Likely by the time the freighter is certified the market for passenger versions will have recovered

Right, but it's about keeping the pipeline full so you can start orders for long lead time parts and keep the supply chain moving. 2019 was a slow year for orders, 2020 has been almost zilch, 2021 is likely to be the same. Orders tend to follow recovery by one year so even if a recovery starts in 2022 then it'll probably be 2023 or later for orders to return in decent numbers. If they can get A350F onto the market and book some orders this year, it'll be a nice victory for them.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:01 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-09/airbus-set-to-move-ahead-with-a350-freighter-within-weeks?sref=1Ty6BxSV&utm_source=url_link

Airbus wants to start marketing it’s 350 next month and will seek board approval.

They are still working on securing enough customers for lunch.

They are looking to US customers such as FedEx and UPS but when the launch the aircraft will depend on when they are able to gather enough customers.


Another sign why Simple Flying is held in contempt:

Bloomberg's title: Airbus Set to Move Ahead With A350 Freighter Within Weeks

Simple Flying's title: Airbus Reportedly Just Weeks Away From A350 Freighter Launch ( ref: https://simpleflying.com/airbus-a350-fr ... ch-touted/ )

Their entire article is based on the Bloomberg report, but it did not report A350F is just weeks away from launch.

Instead it reported it could be weeks away from launch if it gets enough commitments.

Sorry, people, but words matter.
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:08 pm

I just hope Boeing is marketing and pushing as aggressively with their own 777XF. I believe they must protect freight market at all costs. Narrow body market is not currently their turf. No need to forgo widebody/freight market
 
Okcflyer
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:13 pm

Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-09/airbus-set-to-move-ahead-with-a350-freighter-within-weeks?sref=1Ty6BxSV&utm_source=url_link

Airbus wants to start marketing it’s 350 next month and will seek board approval.

They are still working on securing enough customers for lunch.

They are looking to US customers such as FedEx and UPS but when the launch the aircraft will depend on when they are able to gather enough customers.

TFA says:

Airbus SE is poised to begin taking orders for a freighter version of its A350 wide-body as soon as next month, in a challenge to Boeing Co.’s dominance in the market for dedicated cargo aircraft.

The European planemaker has been speaking to more than a dozen potential customers and will seek board authorization to market the new plane in the coming weeks, provided it can line up enough commitments, according to people familiar with the matter. The program could officially launch by year-end, said the people, who sought anonymity discussing confidential matters.
...
The company is focusing its efforts on the U.S., and Airbus commercial chief Christian Scherer has met with FedEx Chairman Fred Smith to pitch the plane, the people said. The company is also pursuing UPS. Both companies declined to comment.

I'm trying to find what is new. The fact they give a timeline is new. The fact that Scherer has met with Smith is news to me at least. Yet again we have the "if" clause, they need launch commitments and I'm having a hard time seeing FX and 5X make the commitment now. Both are coming off a long run of buying 777F/748F and all other things being equal I would not expect them to be in the market at this point in time. I get it that QR could very well commit, but are they enough business to launch an all-new freighter off of?

Maybe Airbus is so desperate to get into this market they will offer eye watering prices to induce sales? Maybe Faury sees making a strategic blow against the entrenched leader as being good for his company's image as well as his own? Yet, is making a big move in the freighter market much of an image builder?

Noshow wrote:
That's the end of the A330.

I don't see how this changes the future of A330 at all. A330ceo and A330F were already dead. A330MRTT gets occasional orders. A330neo has 331 orders and 61 deliveries ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... deliveries ). Even if you knock off ~100 orders as bogus (Iran, AAX) they have enough orders to tick over at their 2/month rate for years to come. Then we can see if A330neo can get more bottom feeder orders as more A330ceo leave the industry. If not, so what, it was a nice run.

Heavierthanair wrote:
flee wrote:
The widebody market is virtually dead at the moment. Airbus needs to make sure that the A350 continues to be in production. .

Likely by the time the freighter is certified the market for passenger versions will have recovered

Right, but it's about keeping the pipeline full so you can start orders for long lead time parts and keep the supply chain moving. 2019 was a slow year for orders, 2020 has been almost zilch, 2021 is likely to be the same. Orders tend to follow recovery by one year so even if a recovery starts in 2022 then it'll probably be 2023 or later for orders to return in decent numbers. If they can get A350F onto the market and book some orders this year, it'll be a nice victory for them.


I think there is another important nugget in the article: the "freighter" is to be based on the 900 with a possible stretch.

The cargo version would be based on a modified A350-900 and may be slightly longer than the passenger version, according to the people. It would take several years to secure regulatory approvals and enter service.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e=url_link

For me, this rules out the much-discussed frankenstein models using 97klbs engines / 6-wheel gear / -K CWB.

This implies the following:

- Mid-size model -- smaller than 77W-SF in volume/payload, and likely smaller than 77XF in volume/payload. Not a direct competitor. Likely to be nearly the exact volume of 77F with less payload (90-95T). MTOW near 280T.
- This sizing means one of two things: 1) Airbus has decided it's better to have a smaller offering and not fight directly in the larger space, and it gives them a fundamental advantage as the A350 handles this market size much better than Boeing is able to with either 787 or 777, and/or #2 feedback from 5X/FX/others is that their core needs is in this mid-size space, and despite possibility of lower cost for each m^3 or lb with stretch, they rather have lower trip cost for the majority of the year. (size for 300days/year rather than 60days/year of peak).
- The talk of "possible stretch" is, IMHO, a loaded comment. It's likely that cargo integrator feedback is the need for a small stretch to reach expected low (possibly ever lower) densities. However, doing a small stretch does increase certification cost, and Airbus is signaling they're not willing to make that additional investment unless an unspecified minimum number of frame are committed too. My take is that this is may be cause of a standoff. The integrators aren't willing to commit to enough frames for Airbus to justify this additional investment, especially knowing it hurts their strategic position with general freight carriers. "Build it and they will come" usually doesn't work out; i.e. if Airbus moves ahead and ultimately they dont sell the volume, mgmt looks like fools (see A380, A330F, A345/6 as recent examples of Airbus falling in this trap). However, if they don't take the risk, the airplane may never leave paper. It's easy to prevent losses by not taking risk, but this also means they're doomed as they wont ever be positioned to win success.
Last edited by Okcflyer on Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:24 pm, edited 5 times in total.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:14 pm

They were marketing this to US freight companies, including Fedex and UPS. But, I don't see how UPS would buy it. I mean, MAYBE they could use it to replace the MD-11s but they are still getting some more. Besides, they seem pretty committed to the MD-11 and anyways, the whole wingspan issue and all. Plus, they have some young 747Fs that could fly for years to come. We'll see I guess...
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:21 pm

It’s obvious Airbus is tailoring this more to US carriers. It’s looking like. So maybe they want to carve a market from themselves. They don’t want to go for 777-747 type of market that the XF will obviously want to go for. Assuming it will be based on the 900 and not the 1000. I guess one could say there’s a gap between the 767F and 777F where Airbus could place this. Knowing the 747 is going out Boeing will probably try to max out the payload and volume of the 777-8F as much as they can.

Can we see a point where both can succeed if they move like this?
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:34 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
They were marketing this to US freight companies, including Fedex and UPS. But, I don't see how UPS would buy it. I mean, MAYBE they could use it to replace the MD-11s but they are still getting some more. Besides, they seem pretty committed to the MD-11 and anyways, the whole wingspan issue and all. Plus, they have some young 747Fs that could fly for years to come. We'll see I guess...

Yes, to me that is the sticking point, who is going to order enough A350F to make the program a go?

Seems if they are just doing a straight A350-900F the barrier to launching a program is lower but the odds of success are lower too.

Maybe that will be a "sweet spot" in the market but IMO it seems more likely 77XF is more of what FX/5X wants if/when they are ready to order more new freighters.

Yet it seems Airbus feels they are close to a launch, so it seems they must have a fairly solid idea of who the launch customers would be.

Either that, or they are just trying to generate excitement that may make it easier for a customer to commit to the program.

Regardless, they have now put themselves into the position of taking a PR hit if there is no launch by end of year.
 
tvh
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:44 pm

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-09/airbus-set-to-move-ahead-with-a350-freighter-within-weeks?sref=1Ty6BxSV&utm_source=url_link

Airbus wants to start marketing it’s 350 next month and will seek board approval.

They are still working on securing enough customers for lunch.

They are looking to US customers such as FedEx and UPS but when the launch the aircraft will depend on when they are able to gather enough customers.


I would like to have lunch with them :roll:
 
JonesNL
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:56 pm

Revelation wrote:
Boeing757100 wrote:
They were marketing this to US freight companies, including Fedex and UPS. But, I don't see how UPS would buy it. I mean, MAYBE they could use it to replace the MD-11s but they are still getting some more. Besides, they seem pretty committed to the MD-11 and anyways, the whole wingspan issue and all. Plus, they have some young 747Fs that could fly for years to come. We'll see I guess...

Yes, to me that is the sticking point, who is going to order enough A350F to make the program a go?

Seems if they are just doing a straight A350-900F the barrier to launching a program is lower but the odds of success are lower too.

Maybe that will be a "sweet spot" in the market but IMO it seems more likely 77XF is more of what FX/5X wants if/when they are ready to order more new freighters.

Yet it seems Airbus feels they are close to a launch, so it seems they must have a fairly solid idea of who the launch customers would be.

Either that, or they are just trying to generate excitement that may make it easier for a customer to commit to the program.

Regardless, they have now put themselves into the position of taking a PR hit if there is no launch by end of year.


The PR hit will be acceptable, foregoing the freighter market completely for the next decade or two is another cookie. It is one of those now or never moments. If they don’t launch now they will have to wait until the A350neo is up and running, which is at current standing a decade and a halve away…
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:59 pm

JonesNL wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Regardless, they have now put themselves into the position of taking a PR hit if there is no launch by end of year.

The PR hit will be acceptable, foregoing the freighter market completely for the next decade or two is another cookie. It is one of those now or never moments. If they don’t launch now they will have to wait until the A350neo is up and running, which is at current standing a decade and a halve away…

i wonder if this is what they told themselves as they launched the A330F...
 
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keesje
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:24 pm

The announcement & apparently agressive schedule suggest Airbus wants to grab the moment where 772F will no longer be allowed to be sold in a few years, where there are still many aging 747s around and the 777X -8 freighter version seems viable when 777-9 certification and innitial ramp-up have been completed. Even then, maybe Boeing has some other higher priority projects. Apparently Airbus is discussing with a dozen operators.
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 3:28 pm

keesje wrote:
The announcement & apparently agressive schedule suggest Airbus wants to grab the moment where 772F will no longer be allowed to be sold in a few years, where there are still many aging 747s around and the 777X -8 freighter version seems viable when 777-9 certification and innitial ramp-up have been completed. Even then, maybe Boeing has some other higher priority projects. Apparently Airbus is discussing with a dozen operators.

The next aircraft Boeing will launch will be the 777XF. If they get QR and some others. I think they’ll launch it this year as well. Let’s see anyway.

But as usual Boeing is very tight lipped on everything
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 4:17 pm

I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:05 pm

Can Airbus bring their 350F to EIS significantly sooner than Boeing can the 778F? That could be crucial in who "wins" this opportunity.
 
oldJoe
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:12 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters


I find that strange too. In June 2019, Cargolux CEO Richard Forson asked for an A350 freighter already, but he would also look at a possible 777XF

source in German only :
https://www.aerotelegraph.com/interview-richard-forson-cargolux-airbus-bietet-mit-a350-sehr-gute-plattform-fuer-frachter
 
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Momo1435
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:18 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters

Bloomberg is an American publication, they will focus more on American customers in their articles.

Airbus will of course be looking at customers from all over the world. Including the Middle East.
 
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Polot
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:22 pm

Qatar may want 30 but that might be it for them for the entire life of the A350F. Locking down US customers (FX, UPS, and probably also trying at Amazon) brings much larger volume over the future, which is why they will specifically be targeted for a launch order.
 
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FrenchPotatoEye
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 5:49 pm

What's is the capacity for 360F vs 77XF?
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:52 pm

keesje wrote:
The announcement & apparently agressive schedule suggest Airbus wants to grab the moment where 772F will no longer be allowed to be sold in a few years, where there are still many aging 747s around and the 777X -8 freighter version seems viable when 777-9 certification and innitial ramp-up have been completed. Even then, maybe Boeing has some other higher priority projects. Apparently Airbus is discussing with a dozen operators.

Apparently aggressive schedule? They've been trying to find launch customers for two years or more, still none are named never mind confirmed.

772F no longer allowed to fly in a few years? They have till 2027 to sort things out.

Airbus discussing with a dozen customers? Must be nice to get a free lunch off them.

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Can Airbus bring their 350F to EIS significantly sooner than Boeing can the 778F?

None of us knows.

Momo1435 wrote:
Bloomberg is an American publication, they will focus more on American customers in their articles.

Bloomberg quotes Airbus sources as saying they are focusing on the US.

FrenchPotatoEye wrote:
What's is the capacity for 360F vs 77XF?

None of us knows, neither product is on market, we're not even sure which length each manufacturer will offer, nor max payload weight, nor range.
 
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ER757
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:58 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters

I could see UPS and Amazon as prime (no pun intended) targets for sales campaigns. They're running 767's and MD-11's that aren't getting any younger. FX is less likely IMO as they have quite a few new'ish 777F's in the fleet
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:01 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters


Having worked on a sufficiently large number of interviews you´ve to limit yourself in time and quantity what you´re telling. As the article points out Airbus has been talking to over a dozend airlines - that should be everyone from Qatar, Emirates, Lufthansa, AF-KLM, Cargolux, Amazon, UPS, Fedex, DHL, Atlas, Cathay, Singapore, China Cargo, China Postal, SF, YTO, ... all the ones Boeing is talking to about the 777-8F, too. They simply haven´t been mentioned in the article by name.
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:02 pm

ER757 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters

I could see UPS and Amazon as prime (no pun intended) targets for sales campaigns. They're running 767's and MD-11's that aren't getting any younger. FX is less likely IMO as they have quite a few new'ish 777F's in the fleet

Let me throw this in and see how you guys take it. Amazon is in run for a 1 billion dollar Boeing contract. In completion with Microsoft and google for cloud services.

Is it possible for a scratch my back I scratch yours between Boeing and Amazon on freighter business?
 
texl1649
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:06 pm

Opus99 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters

I could see UPS and Amazon as prime (no pun intended) targets for sales campaigns. They're running 767's and MD-11's that aren't getting any younger. FX is less likely IMO as they have quite a few new'ish 777F's in the fleet

Let me throw this in and see how you guys take it. Amazon is in run for a 1 billion dollar Boeing contract. In completion with Microsoft and google for cloud services.

Is it possible for a scratch my back I scratch yours between Boeing and Amazon on freighter business?


Short answer is no. Amazon first of all operates/owns very few aircraft themselves, almost all of which are bought used. Second, Boeing and Blue Origin are more competitors than anything. Finally, Boeing can’t sell money-losing 767’s at this point, and needs to maintain consistent pricing or their prices to FedEx/UPS etc. will also be impacted for all future deliveries (and possibly some current year ones). There are a lot of cloud services providers and I doubt Boeing really bids/bundles any such purchases/contracts to any plausible commercial aircraft sales.
 
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Polot
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:32 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
ER757 wrote:
I could see UPS and Amazon as prime (no pun intended) targets for sales campaigns. They're running 767's and MD-11's that aren't getting any younger. FX is less likely IMO as they have quite a few new'ish 777F's in the fleet

Let me throw this in and see how you guys take it. Amazon is in run for a 1 billion dollar Boeing contract. In completion with Microsoft and google for cloud services.

Is it possible for a scratch my back I scratch yours between Boeing and Amazon on freighter business?


Short answer is no. Amazon first of all operates/owns very few aircraft themselves, almost all of which are bought used.

Amazon owns (or leases) many aircraft. They just don’t operate any themselves-they are given out to contractors. But a majority if not all belong to Amazon, not the operator. All of their planes thus far have been second hand, they haven’t ordered any new build freighters yet.

Amazon is tricky though, as I suspect the A333P2F/77WP2F would work well at a cheaper price if they wanted to move to larger than 763.
 
tomcat
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:48 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters


Having worked on a sufficiently large number of interviews you´ve to limit yourself in time and quantity what you´re telling. As the article points out Airbus has been talking to over a dozend airlines - that should be everyone from Qatar, Emirates, Lufthansa, AF-KLM, Cargolux, Amazon, UPS, Fedex, DHL, Atlas, Cathay, Singapore, China Cargo, China Postal, SF, YTO, ... all the ones Boeing is talking to about the 777-8F, too. They simply haven´t been mentioned in the article by name.


I really wonder what will come out of this. If Airbus is indeed talking to the airlines mentioned in the article, it means they are talking to airlines active in two different markets, ie high and low densities. The new built 777F and 744/8F are suitable for the high density market but have also been bought by airlines active on the low density market. If Airbus is close to be able to offer the A350F, the configuration of the aircraft must be well established. Given that Airbus has already spoken with a variety of airlines and that we haven't heard any negative feedback from any airline, my prudent take is that the aircraft being offered is suitable for both markets. I realize that this is maybe reading too much out of an absence of known feedback from the airlines.

On the other hand, if Airbus would actually be focusing on the low density market, it could mean that they try to offer to this market the most efficient aircraft possible. That's the best shot they have to compete with cheap P2F aircraft in absence of additional green regulation for the aviation industry (although this could be around the corner). But such a decision could be also driven by the fact that they cannot achieve a suitable configuration for the high density market or that it is technically feasible but would require an investment that Airbus is not ready to make.
 
DenverTed
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:19 pm

What's the 2027 rule? No 767-300F, 777F, and 777-300ERSF can fly beyond that, or can't be delivered beyond that?
 
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Polot
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:24 pm

DenverTed wrote:
What's the 2027 rule? No 767-300F, 777F, and 777-300ERSF can fly beyond that, or can't be delivered beyond that?

Current freighter new builds (767F, 77F) don’t meet emissions requirements that go into effect then. Planes already in fleets and secondhand conversions are not affected.
 
trex8
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:26 pm

DenverTed wrote:
What's the 2027 rule? No 767-300F, 777F, and 777-300ERSF can fly beyond that, or can't be delivered beyond that?


Emissions issue. Older designs cannot be produced with the same engines they have now
https://www.icao.int/newsroom/pages/ica ... craft.aspx

"Montréal, 6 March 2017 – The 36-State ICAO Council has adopted a new aircraft CO2 emissions standard which will reduce the impact of aviation greenhouse gas emissions on the global climate.


Contained in a new Volume III to Annex 16 of the Chicago Convention (Environmental Protection), the aircraft CO2 emissions measure represents the world’s first global design certification standard governing CO2 emissions for any industry sector.


The Standard will apply to new aircraft type designs from 2020, and to aircraft type designs already in production as of 2023. Those in-production aircraft which by 2028 do not meet the standard will no longer be able to be produced unless their designs are sufficiently modified."



Its also possible some countries may eventually ban those aircraft from flying at some point too,
 
DenverTed
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:30 pm

Polot wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
What's the 2027 rule? No 767-300F, 777F, and 777-300ERSF can fly beyond that, or can't be delivered beyond that?

Current freighter new builds (767F, 77F) don’t meet emissions requirements that go into effect then. Planes already in fleets and secondhand conversions are not affected.

If the 777-300ERSF comes close to the numbers, Airbus and Boeing new freighters may have a tough time with pricing pressure due to the amount of feedstock.
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:38 pm

tomcat wrote:
Flying-Tiger wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I also find it interesting that their main target is the US. Where someone in the Middle East is saying they want to buy 30 freighters


Having worked on a sufficiently large number of interviews you´ve to limit yourself in time and quantity what you´re telling. As the article points out Airbus has been talking to over a dozend airlines - that should be everyone from Qatar, Emirates, Lufthansa, AF-KLM, Cargolux, Amazon, UPS, Fedex, DHL, Atlas, Cathay, Singapore, China Cargo, China Postal, SF, YTO, ... all the ones Boeing is talking to about the 777-8F, too. They simply haven´t been mentioned in the article by name.


I really wonder what will come out of this. If Airbus is indeed talking to the airlines mentioned in the article, it means they are talking to airlines active in two different markets, ie high and low densities. The new built 777F and 744/8F are suitable for the high density market but have also been bought by airlines active on the low density market. If Airbus is close to be able to offer the A350F, the configuration of the aircraft must be well established. Given that Airbus has already spoken with a variety of airlines and that we haven't heard any negative feedback from any airline, my prudent take is that the aircraft being offered is suitable for both markets. I realize that this is maybe reading too much out of an absence of known feedback from the airlines.

On the other hand, if Airbus would actually be focusing on the low density market, it could mean that they try to offer to this market the most efficient aircraft possible. That's the best shot they have to compete with cheap P2F aircraft in absence of additional green regulation for the aviation industry (although this could be around the corner). But such a decision could be also driven by the fact that they cannot achieve a suitable configuration for the high density market or that it is technically feasible but would require an investment that Airbus is not ready to make.

One thing I will say is after Airbus had shared their 350 plans with QR. QR’s Cargo chief said at the time that they were still eagerly waiting for Boeing to share their 777X freighter plans with them and they hoped they would do it soon. AVweek reported this bit the rest of the article was locked for premium subscribers.
 
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keesje
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:10 pm

Qatar has 50+ A350s in service, so from a pilot pool and MRO perspective, that would be plus. Same for LH, SQ, BA, CX, AF-KLM.

Airbus in the past was conservative offering freighters, the story was passenger slots were more valuable. You are directly competing with converted, overhauled freighters, costing much less..
 
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Polot
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:19 pm

keesje wrote:
Qatar has 50+ A350s in service, so from a pilot pool and MRO perspective, that would be plus. Same for LH, SQ, BA, CX, AF-KLM.

With the exception of AF-KLM (who at this point barely even operate dedicated freighters) every airline you listed also has 777Xs on order too…


It will come down to costs and economics, not commonality.
 
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keesje
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:22 pm

Qatar has 50+ A350s in service, so from a pilot pool and MRO perspective, that would be plus. Same for LH, SQ, BA, CX, AF-KLM.

Airbus in the past was conservative offering freighters, the story was passenger slots were more valuable. You are directly competing with converted, overhauled freighters, costing much less..
 
TriniA340
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:13 am

Revelation wrote:
I don't see how this changes the future of A330 at all. A330ceo and A330F were already dead. A330MRTT gets occasional orders. A330neo has 331 orders and 61 deliveries ( ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... deliveries ). Even if you knock off ~100 orders as bogus (Iran, AAX) they have enough orders to tick over at their 2/month rate for years to come. Then we can see if A330neo can get more bottom feeder orders as more A330ceo leave the industry. If not, so what, it was a nice run.


Completely agree! I think the A330neo will continue to chug along slowly for the foreseeable future.


Leeham opened up their previously subscription-only article, with their take (and insider-info) on the A350F & 777XF. They say:
A350F - 230ft / 5000nm / 110t.
A339F study canned.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/04/06/boein ... hreatened/
 
779JetBlast
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:13 am

One factor that's not being mentioned is that FX and 5X would have to buy new pallets and containers for the A350F. The fuselage of the A350F is narrower than that of the 777f. So in other words, what fits in the 777F won't fit in the A350F. I just don't see it happening.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:10 am

779JetBlast wrote:
One factor that's not being mentioned is that FX and 5X would have to buy new pallets and containers for the A350F. The fuselage of the A350F is narrower than that of the 777f. So in other words, what fits in the 777F won't fit in the A350F. I just don't see it happening.


I would assume that both pallets and containers fit. The belly containers are in both cases LD3.

The standard for main deck pallets and containers is, AFAIK, common to the A330, DC10, MD10, MD11, 777 and 747. I assume the height on top of the pallet can vary.
 
Noshow
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jun 10, 2021 10:18 am

777F and 747F have different fuselage diameters and shapes as well. Pallets need to be packed differently. This is why Air France retired their 777F early.The A350F should be pretty steep inside and some big improvement over circular fuselage shapes.

Would RR engines work for big US express freight companies?
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jun 10, 2021 1:48 pm

keesje wrote:
Qatar has 50+ A350s in service, so from a pilot pool and MRO perspective, that would be plus. Same for LH, SQ, BA, CX, AF-KLM.

QR also has 48 77W, 9 77L, 24 77F and 2 748F in house and 50 779 and 10 778 on order so it's not much of an advantage relative to the competitors.

keesje wrote:
Airbus in the past was conservative offering freighters, the story was passenger slots were more valuable. You are directly competing with converted, overhauled freighters, costing much less..

Yet now we haven't seen a large A350 order since 2019 (the EK order that was the consolation prize for the demise of the A380), on top of deferrals and NTUs, and not much chance for any big orders for the next year or two, so the timing is right.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jun 10, 2021 5:45 pm

Noshow wrote:
Would RR engines work for big US express freight companies?


Both FX and 5X have RR powered 757's in the fleet. Therefore, they should already have infrastructure, processes, and history in place in working together.

Further, the triple spool architecture of the Trent-XWB should actually be a plus in the freight world. Trent engines have superior climb fuel burn due to their triple spool architecture. Even in 5X/FX longhaul service, the average freight length is shorter than pax airlines, and this means the climb burn advantage can add up.

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