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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:01 am

Opus99 wrote:
I did say it had changed by then. Have any comments concerning the other two links I posted? Or are you good?

Obviously richard quest got those figures from the 2018 deal.

Of course you can’t comment on those because it doesn’t suit your narrative


It has never been a $10-$20 million difference between the A350 and 777X as you are trying to claim, it has nothing to do with my “narrative”. I posted the OEM list prices from from 2018 above and you still then claimed it was only $20 million difference. I have been posting factual information that demonstrates there is a significant gap in the purchase price. In fact the 2018 777-9 list price ($425 million) is closer ($20 million) to the list price of the A380 ($445 million).

At the start of 2018 the A350-1000 list price was $359 million, and the 777-9 $425 million, a difference of $66 million, the 777-9 was increased to the IAG published value of $442 million, where Airbus increased to $366 million, the gap widened.

B777LRF wrote:
It would require an OEW in the order of 120, a MZFW of 230, a MTOW of 300 and a MLAW of 240. In rough numbers, and it does look a bit on the ambitious side. Can they even get to MTOW 300 with a double-bogie MLG or would it require the triple-bogie from the -1000?


OEW of 120 would not be possible, that is the MEW of the A359. MZFW would probably be able to be increased to 240, MLW 240 would be possible. MTOW of 300 would only be possible with triple bogie for pavement loading. I think the weights would be increased and the maximum cycles and life reduced like we see on other freighters including the 77F.
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:08 am

JoergAtADN wrote:

These number are what Airbus showed it's potential customers, according to Leeham news: https://leehamnews.com/2021/04/06/boein ... hreatened/


The only numbers I saw in that article was estimated 110 tonnes, 5000 nm, and A350F: est 230 ft.

The OEW, MZFW etc numbers etc did not come from that article, certainly cannot have a OEW at the same weight as MEW.
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:08 am

Do you think Airbus is serious on launching the freighter version of the A350?

What is the expected characteristics of the aircraft? Like what is the maximum revenue payload and how far it can carry this max revenue payload in normal conditions?
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:11 am

VV wrote:
Do you think Airbus is serious on launching the freighter version of the A350?

What is the expected characteristics of the aircraft? Like what is the maximum revenue payload and how far it can carry this max revenue payload in normal conditions?

I think they’ll do it. They are very serious. Regardless of the reception it gets.

I’m not sure if the technical performance though. Someone with more knowledge will have to fill in there
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:20 am

Opus99 wrote:
VV wrote:
Do you think Airbus is serious on launching the freighter version of the A350?

What is the expected characteristics of the aircraft? Like what is the maximum revenue payload and how far it can carry this max revenue payload in normal conditions?

I think they’ll do it. They are very serious. Regardless of the reception it gets.

I’m not sure if the technical performance though. Someone with more knowledge will have to fill in there


If the version does ahead, it is good for employment across Europe.

It is quite strange we haven't heard at least a very generic top-level description of the freighter like, "The A350 freighter would be able to carry X tonnes of payload over Y nautical miles."
It means that they are going to keep it quiet until a launch customer is found.

Basically, I am just insinuating that they would launch it only when someone commits to order the aircraft, which brings me to the question as which cargo forwarder or airline or lessor would become the launch customer.
It also means they are probably going all over places to present the aircraft to potential customers. Who are they?
 
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keesje
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:32 am

Airbus has shown an A350F concept to potential customers that outlines a 110 ton payload with a 5,000nm range. The A350F—it doesn’t apparently have a sub-type nomenclature—is a shrink of the A350-1000. The A350F is about 12 feet shorter.

A350F Fuselage Length

A350-900: 219 ft
A350F: est 230 ft
A350-1000: 242 ft

The shrink optimizes the center of gravity loadability and pallet load capabilities.

https://leehamnews.com/2021/04/06/boein ... hreatened/

They are presenting the A350F case to airlines operating long haul cargo fleets. More than a dozen apparently. The article says Airbus is not in a hurry and eying EIS around 2028.
 
mig17
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:35 am

Will P2F conversion of aircrafts non compliant with 2027 noise reg will still be allowed?
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:36 pm

Moderators do not arbitrate the facts. Post links for your opinions and never discuss other users.

When I was growing up, we were taught that as soon as someone else started attacking the presenter instead of the debating the topic, that person forfeits the discussion.

Please read the forum rules and post a civil reply.

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MoKa777
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:36 pm

JoergAtADN wrote:
zeke wrote:

B777LRF wrote:
If the proposed A350F can load 110 tons (5 more than a 777F) and haul it 5000NM (same as MZFW range as a 777F), they're onto a winner, as the A350F will burn in the order of 15-20% less fuel, as well as incurring lower en-route and landing charges due to it's lower MTOW.


I don’t think that would be possible with the A350


These number are what Airbus showed it's potential customers, according to Leeham news: https://leehamnews.com/2021/04/06/boein ... hreatened/


Also, that article mentions the intermediate length A350. So, OEW will be higher than it would be on a -900 based freighter.

In that case, they may be floating a 308t -950F to be able to reach the payload/range capability mentioned.
 
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keesje
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:07 pm

So an A350F would have a higher payload (110t) than a 772F (102t) Impressive.
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:44 pm

After reading the above discussion, I understand that the A350F would have A350-1000's landing gears, wings and engines.

Considering how popular the A350-1000 is, I am wondering if this freighter version is just to increase the volume (production) of the engines and landing gear.
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 2:53 pm

zeke wrote:
JoergAtADN wrote:

These number are what Airbus showed it's potential customers, according to Leeham news: https://leehamnews.com/2021/04/06/boein ... hreatened/


The only numbers I saw in that article was estimated 110 tonnes, 5000 nm, and A350F: est 230 ft.

The OEW, MZFW etc numbers etc did not come from that article, certainly cannot have a OEW at the same weight as MEW.


What kind of cargo density would it be at 110 tonnes?
 
B777LRF
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:37 pm

MoKa777 wrote:
Also, that article mentions the intermediate length A350. So, OEW will be higher than it would be on a -900 based freighter.

In that case, they may be floating a 308t -950F to be able to reach the payload/range capability mentioned.


A -950F based on the -1000 will help with MTOW and MLAW, but the aircraft still require a 110 tons delta between OEW and MZFW and a 10 tons ditto between MZFW and MLAW, in order to deliver a 110 tons payload. With an OEW of 140 it would need MZFW of 250, MLAW of 260 and MTOW (for 5000NM) of 315.

The current -1000 has OEW around 155 tons, MZFW of 223, MLAW of 236 and MTOW of 319. Extracting 27 tons from the wing box/wing interface will undoubtedly present a challenge, as will developing brakes & gears capable of handling a MLAW 24 tons above present max.

I suspect part of the solution might be deletion of the centre-tank in order to raise ZFW, provided the thing has enough fuel in the wings for 11 hours.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 7:09 pm

VV wrote:
After reading the above discussion, I understand that the A350F would have A350-1000's landing gears, wings and engines.

Considering how popular the A350-1000 is, I am wondering if this freighter version is just to increase the volume (production) of the engines and landing gear.

Freighters have their own business case. However, the benefit of better economics of scale will help the A350-1000 and ensures any "odd" components stay in production until passenger widebody demand returns.

It is a benefit, not the main reason.

Lightsaber
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:31 pm

B777LRF wrote:
MoKa777 wrote:
Also, that article mentions the intermediate length A350. So, OEW will be higher than it would be on a -900 based freighter.

In that case, they may be floating a 308t -950F to be able to reach the payload/range capability mentioned.


A -950F based on the -1000 will help with MTOW and MLAW, but the aircraft still require a 110 tons delta between OEW and MZFW and a 10 tons ditto between MZFW and MLAW, in order to deliver a 110 tons payload. With an OEW of 140 it would need MZFW of 250, MLAW of 260 and MTOW (for 5000NM) of 315.

The current -1000 has OEW around 155 tons, MZFW of 223, MLAW of 236 and MTOW of 319. Extracting 27 tons from the wing box/wing interface will undoubtedly present a challenge, as will developing brakes & gears capable of handling a MLAW 24 tons above present max.

I suspect part of the solution might be deletion of the centre-tank in order to raise ZFW, provided the thing has enough fuel in the wings for 11 hours.

My back of the envelope calcs put the A35f with 110t payload only having just over 4000nm range at 319t MTOW. The 778f does basically the same at 351t MTOW with the same payload but uses a bit more fuel.

At 95t payload they both do about 5knm, this seems more likely.

Both aircraft lack the raw payload performance of the current 77F but use less fuel doing it.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:06 am

B777LRF wrote:
The current -1000 has OEW around 155 tons.


More like 150 for the current builds. Turning a 77W into a ERSF takes out 15 tons (https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... ochure.pdf) and that still hauls the structure for windows around and isn´t shortened by a few meters. So somewhere between 130 and 135t OEW.

I suspect part of the solution might be deletion of the centre-tank in order to raise ZFW


Being Airbus probably some variable weight option instead of deleting it.

best regards
Thomas
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 11:29 am

lightsaber wrote:
VV wrote:
After reading the above discussion, I understand that the A350F would have A350-1000's landing gears, wings and engines.

Considering how popular the A350-1000 is, I am wondering if this freighter version is just to increase the volume (production) of the engines and landing gear.

Freighters have their own business case. However, the benefit of better economics of scale will help the A350-1000 and ensures any "odd" components stay in production until passenger widebody demand returns.

It is a benefit, not the main reason.


How many A350 freighter deliveries do you expect until 2041?
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 2:56 pm

B777LRF wrote:
The current -1000 has OEW around 155 tons, MZFW of 223, MLAW of 236 and MTOW of 319. Extracting 27 tons from the wing box/wing interface will undoubtedly present a challenge, as will developing brakes & gears capable of handling a MLAW 24 tons above present max.

I suspect part of the solution might be deletion of the centre-tank in order to raise ZFW, provided the thing has enough fuel in the wings for 11 hours.


All of the -1000s we operate have an OEW below 150 tonnes. I cannot see them deleting the centre tank as that is the wing, the centre tank on the A350 is the inner wing, and fuselage wing box. There is a slight difference between the -900 and -1000 here due to size of the landing gear that need to be accommodated. Please do not put any credence to wiki as a reference on the A350, it is highly unreliable.

Typically what A&B do with production freighters is to reduce the design life on them, they do the exchange of design life with higher weights. For example the default LOV for the 77L/77W I believe is 40,000 cycles, and the 77F 11,000 cycles, I see Airbus doing similar on an A350 freighter, however the cycles impact should not be as significant due to the composites being used.

We know the landing gear and brakes can handle above the current MLW, design regulations state aircraft must be capable of landing immediately after taking off at MTOW.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:10 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Moderators do not arbitrate the facts. Post links for your opinions and never discuss other users.

When I was growing up, we were taught that as soon as someone else started attacking the presenter instead of the debating the topic, that person forfeits the discussion.

Please read the forum rules and post a civil reply.

Lightsaber
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All questions should be in site related or email [email protected]


Thank you

It is nice when everyone behaves as adults rather than cafeteria kids. A v B discussion seems OK if based on comparisons rather than rants.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:48 pm

VV wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
VV wrote:
After reading the above discussion, I understand that the A350F would have A350-1000's landing gears, wings and engines.

Considering how popular the A350-1000 is, I am wondering if this freighter version is just to increase the volume (production) of the engines and landing gear.

Freighters have their own business case. However, the benefit of better economics of scale will help the A350-1000 and ensures any "odd" components stay in production until passenger widebody demand returns.

It is a benefit, not the main reason.


How many A350 freighter deliveries do you expect until 2041?

That depends on which freighter QR selects. They will be the Kingmaker. I expect 250 to 300 new build freighters in the next 20 years. There might not be a business case for the freighter that losses that competition at QR. It doesn't matter what we think of AAB, that order, in another thread, is so huge it will determine the large freighter economics.

So tell me who wins that competition and it is a real binary answer on how many A350F. Seriously, 30 sales is enough to launch and many others will follow. But which freighter? 777xF or A350F? I think this is a Highlander situation where there can only be one and AAB will decide thanks to the decision for a huge order.

Lightsaber
 
Nnaeto87
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 3:52 pm

https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospac ... esses-2025

I think this is one of the longest articles I’ve read from Aviation Week but just to pick on the relevant part here:

“In the widebody sector, a freighter version of the A350 is the next opportunity. The COVID-19 pandemic made it clear, even to those who ignored the issue in good times, that Airbus has a gaping hole in its portfolio: freighters. Boeing was able to sell the cargo version of the 747-8 until recently; the 767 continues as a freighter 39 years after its entry into service; and, of course, the 777F is a major success story, providing Boeing strong margins. Boeing is even preparing the formal launch of a 777X freighter, possibly with Qatar Airways as the first customer.“

“By contrast, Airbus has a backlog of zero for the A330-200F. There is no cargo variant of the A350, though CEO Faury is adamant that should change. It is too late to take advantage of the current freighter boom, but leaving Boeing with a monopoly in the long-haul freighter market much longer is unacceptable for Airbus.“

https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospac ... esses-2025
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:03 pm

Nnaeto87 wrote:
https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospace-defense/airbus-set-transform-industrial-setup-processes-2025
...
“By contrast, Airbus has a backlog of zero for the A330-200F. There is no cargo variant of the A350, though CEO Faury is adamant that should change. It is too late to take advantage of the current freighter boom, but leaving Boeing with a monopoly in the long-haul freighter market much longer is unacceptable for Airbus.“
...


Well, the last A330-200F was delivered in 2017.
The last "order" was cancelled in 2020, I think.

How much longer is "unacceptable"?
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:16 pm

Nnaeto87 wrote:
https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospace-defense/airbus-set-transform-industrial-setup-processes-2025

I think this is one of the longest articles I’ve read from Aviation Week but just to pick on the relevant part here:

“In the widebody sector, a freighter version of the A350 is the next opportunity. The COVID-19 pandemic made it clear, even to those who ignored the issue in good times, that Airbus has a gaping hole in its portfolio: freighters. Boeing was able to sell the cargo version of the 747-8 until recently; the 767 continues as a freighter 39 years after its entry into service; and, of course, the 777F is a major success story, providing Boeing strong margins. Boeing is even preparing the formal launch of a 777X freighter, possibly with Qatar Airways as the first customer.“

“By contrast, Airbus has a backlog of zero for the A330-200F. There is no cargo variant of the A350, though CEO Faury is adamant that should change. It is too late to take advantage of the current freighter boom, but leaving Boeing with a monopoly in the long-haul freighter market much longer is unacceptable for Airbus.“

https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospac ... esses-2025

Compare and contrast this article quoting consultants/analysts:

Dealing with legacy issues is one thing. “What Airbus is doing internally is much more about the second half of this decade or even the first half of the next,” says consultancy Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa. The OEM is preparing the groundwork for future aircraft. First, the launch of a freighter version of the A350 is approaching, possibly by year-end. Next up is what will likely be the last iteration of the A321neo, known colloquially as the A322: a stretched, rewinged, reengined version of the A321neo that, Tusa says, Airbus could launch as soon as 2023, the year the A321XLR is to be introduced. And, of course, the company much launch the next-generation aircraft around 2026 to have it ready by 2035.

To this article from today quoting Airbus itself:

Airbus on Tuesday sought to dampen speculation about an upgrade to its best-selling A321neo single-aisle model, saying "there is no such thing" as a proposal to build what some media have dubbed an A322 with more seats and newer wings.

Industry sources have said Airbus has kept in reserve studies based on carbon wings and updated engines if needed to counter any new plane that rival Boeing might launch in the top end of the medium-haul market, where Airbus has a strong lead.

Airbus executives on Monday said they were happy with the current wings and engines on the existing portfolio.

They confirmed that Airbus is examining a possible freighter version of its A350 wide-body jet, but said the company would only launch such a development when the conditions were right.

Ref: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-s ... 37761.html

I get it, not having a popular wide body freighter is an issue for Airbus, but I doubt it is "unacceptable" which is the words AvWeek chose to describe the situation. If it truly was "unacceptable" they would launch the program with just a few launch orders, but they tried this with A330F and failed. I think the situation is closer to the way the Yahoo/Reuters article describes it, they will launch if and when they have enough launch orders to project long term success for the program. Yet even the AvWeek article points out Boeing is in a strong position with 777F and is working on securing QR as the launch customer for 77XF. There's a fairly good chance that Airbus will end up having to accept the unacceptable, IMO.
Last edited by Revelation on Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Nnaeto87
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 15, 2021 4:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
Nnaeto87 wrote:
https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospace-defense/airbus-set-transform-industrial-setup-processes-2025

I think this is one of the longest articles I’ve read from Aviation Week but just to pick on the relevant part here:

“In the widebody sector, a freighter version of the A350 is the next opportunity. The COVID-19 pandemic made it clear, even to those who ignored the issue in good times, that Airbus has a gaping hole in its portfolio: freighters. Boeing was able to sell the cargo version of the 747-8 until recently; the 767 continues as a freighter 39 years after its entry into service; and, of course, the 777F is a major success story, providing Boeing strong margins. Boeing is even preparing the formal launch of a 777X freighter, possibly with Qatar Airways as the first customer.“

“By contrast, Airbus has a backlog of zero for the A330-200F. There is no cargo variant of the A350, though CEO Faury is adamant that should change. It is too late to take advantage of the current freighter boom, but leaving Boeing with a monopoly in the long-haul freighter market much longer is unacceptable for Airbus.“

https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospac ... esses-2025

Compare and contrast this article quoting consultants/analysts:

Dealing with legacy issues is one thing. “What Airbus is doing internally is much more about the second half of this decade or even the first half of the next,” says consultancy Agency Partners analyst Sash Tusa. The OEM is preparing the groundwork for future aircraft. First, the launch of a freighter version of the A350 is approaching, possibly by year-end. Next up is what will likely be the last iteration of the A321neo, known colloquially as the A322: a stretched, rewinged, reengined version of the A321neo that, Tusa says, Airbus could launch as soon as 2023, the year the A321XLR is to be introduced. And, of course, the company much launch the next-generation aircraft around 2026 to have it ready by 2035.

To this article from today quoting Airbus itself:

Airbus on Tuesday sought to dampen speculation about an upgrade to its best-selling A321neo single-aisle model, saying "there is no such thing" as a proposal to build what some media have dubbed an A322 with more seats and newer wings.

Industry sources have said Airbus has kept in reserve studies based on carbon wings and updated engines if needed to counter any new plane that rival Boeing might launch in the top end of the medium-haul market, where Airbus has a strong lead.

Airbus executives on Monday said they were happy with the current wings and engines on the existing portfolio.

They confirmed that Airbus is examining a possible freighter version of its A350 wide-body jet, but said the company would only launch such a development when the conditions were right.

Ref: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbus-s ... 37761.html

I get it, not having a popular wide body freighter is an issue for Airbus, but I doubt it is "unacceptable" which is the words AvWeek chose to describe the situation. If it truly was "unacceptable" they would launch the program with just a few launch orders, but they tried this with A330F and failed. I think the situation is closer to the way the Yahoo/Reuters article describes it, they will launch if and when they have enough launch orders to project long term success for the program.

Correct. Watching the tweets today concerning the Airbus program update. The CEO basically said the 350 freighter will launch immediately the business case works.

So I take that as till the orders stack up, we will not be going ahead with it.

I don’t think they want a repeat of the 330F
 
WIederling
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:33 am

tommy1808 wrote:
B777LRF wrote:
The current -1000 has OEW around 155 tons.


More like 150 for the current builds. Turning a 77W into a ERSF takes out 15 tons (https://www.iai.co.il/drupal/sites/defa ... ochure.pdf) and that still hauls the structure for windows around and isn´t shortened by a few meters. So somewhere between 130 and 135t OEW.


Looking at A330-2/300 PAX vs A330-200F OEW numbers should give a hint with an Airbus taste ?
 
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keesje
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:30 am

Nnaeto87 wrote:
https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospace-defense/airbus-set-transform-industrial-setup-processes-2025

I think this is one of the longest articles I’ve read from Aviation Week but just to pick on the relevant part here:

“In the widebody sector, a freighter version of the A350 is the next opportunity. The COVID-19 pandemic made it clear, even to those who ignored the issue in good times, that Airbus has a gaping hole in its portfolio: freighters. Boeing was able to sell the cargo version of the 747-8 until recently; the 767 continues as a freighter 39 years after its entry into service; and, of course, the 777F is a major success story, providing Boeing strong margins. Boeing is even preparing the formal launch of a 777X freighter, possibly with Qatar Airways as the first customer.“

“By contrast, Airbus has a backlog of zero for the A330-200F. There is no cargo variant of the A350, though CEO Faury is adamant that should change. It is too late to take advantage of the current freighter boom, but leaving Boeing with a monopoly in the long-haul freighter market much longer is unacceptable for Airbus.“

https://aviationweek.com/forum/aerospac ... esses-2025


I also doubt the unacceptable part. A has done well over the last decade with only selling a few freighters. In terms of margin, you are competiting with overhauled, modified passenger aircraft, that sell for (20%?) of the price of a new aircraft. In the past Airbus pushed out freighter versions because of that. There seem to be lots of conversion candidates in the deserts this decade. Range is great (777F) but cargo doesn't complain about tech stops.
 
Okcflyer
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 21, 2021 1:57 pm

keesje wrote:

I also doubt the unacceptable part. A has done well over the last decade with only selling a few freighters. In terms of margin, you are competiting with overhauled, modified passenger aircraft, that sell for (20%?) of the price of a new aircraft. In the past Airbus pushed out freighter versions because of that. There seem to be lots of conversion candidates in the deserts this decade.


Then why is their CEO making public statements about their (his?) desire to change this dynamic, and considering dumping Billions into a new-built offering?? Do you think the A350F will suddenly command high margins?

keesje wrote:
Range is great (777F) but cargo doesn't complain about tech stops.


Fallacy. Tech stops are very expensive. Consider the additional fatigue cycles, engine cycles, time inefficiency, risk of going tech, etc. Fuel burnt during decent and climb are greater than the cost of tankering.

Older designs were unable to go non-stop with economic payload. Just because these older, less efficient frames are/were technically unable to do nonstop, doesn't therefore mean the Operator's desire is to 1-stop. Nonstop is better and the 77F was the first frame that can carry normal payloads sufficient distance to enable these type of network changes.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 21, 2021 2:27 pm

Nnaeto87 wrote:

So I take that as till the orders stack up, we will not be going ahead with it.

I don’t think they want a repeat of the 330F

Airbus had 66 orders for the A330-200F when the first was delivered. Stuff happens between launch and EIS an dmarket change s etc
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... mer-etihad
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:18 pm

Okcflyer wrote:

Then why is their CEO making public statements about their (his?) desire to change this dynamic, and considering dumping Billions into a new-built offering?? Do you think the A350F will suddenly command high margins?


I think a large part of this is there is a demand for freighters and passenger aircraft are being delayed. If they manage to secure freighter aircraft is could keep the FAL and other production lines at meaningful levels to achieve manufacturing efficiencies.

Additionally if they do end up using the A350-1000 front end and A350-900 rear end to a new fuselage length between the -900 and -1000, they could pitch that fuselage with the -1000 wing, gear, engine as the freighter basis, and with the -900 wing, gear, engines as something that would have better seat mile economics compared to the 787-10 however not as much range as the A350-900.
 
xl0hr
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:39 am

I think single pilot cruise could significantly improve the A350F's value to customers. See https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1461873

That might tip the scales vis-a-vis the B778F for Quatar...

Plus, I think introducing single pilot ops on cargo rather than pax avoids a lot of concerns of the flying public. See the discussion linked above.
 
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par13del
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:23 am

Okcflyer wrote:
keesje wrote:
Range is great (777F) but cargo doesn't complain about tech stops.


Fallacy. Tech stops are very expensive. Consider the additional fatigue cycles, engine cycles, time inefficiency, risk of going tech, etc. Fuel burnt during decent and climb are greater than the cost of tankering.

Older designs were unable to go non-stop with economic payload. Just because these older, less efficient frames are/were technically unable to do nonstop, doesn't therefore mean the Operator's desire is to 1-stop. Nonstop is better and the 77F was the first frame that can carry normal payloads sufficient distance to enable these type of network changes.

So the sales of the 77F were not greater because..........
 
B777LRF
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:49 am

The 77F offers three things which makes it the gold standard in cargo hauling: Lower acquisition costs, lower operating costs and longer range, particularly the ability to lift 100 tons over a distance of 5000NM.

Stopping enroute for fuel is, perhaps, even less attractive for box haulers than SLF haulers. It costs around 3 hours to perform a tech stop, time which could be spent extending the sorting time and/or delaying pick-up times from customers/offering earlier delivery times. Which would provide a better value proposition, a better utilisation of resources, a reduction in miss sorts, a higher fidelity sort and fewer packages left behind when the flights depart. On the other, SLF side, you have a bunch of carbon based lifeforms quietly moaning, but still opting for the cheaper option because the direct is 100 USD more .....

So whilst it's absolutely true packages don't complain, the people shipping and receiving them certainly do!
 
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Polot
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 22, 2021 12:01 pm

par13del wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
keesje wrote:
Range is great (777F) but cargo doesn't complain about tech stops.


Fallacy. Tech stops are very expensive. Consider the additional fatigue cycles, engine cycles, time inefficiency, risk of going tech, etc. Fuel burnt during decent and climb are greater than the cost of tankering.

Older designs were unable to go non-stop with economic payload. Just because these older, less efficient frames are/were technically unable to do nonstop, doesn't therefore mean the Operator's desire is to 1-stop. Nonstop is better and the 77F was the first frame that can carry normal payloads sufficient distance to enable these type of network changes.

So the sales of the 77F were not greater because..........

Sales of the 77F have been great. Boeing has sold 250+ of them in 15 years which is impressive for a new build freighter.

For comparison only ~230 767Fs have been sold (to mostly 2 customers) across almost 30 years, and just 346 747Fs in ~45 years across all variants (742F, 744F, 744ERF,748F). Not sure how many new build A300/A310s were made, can’t quickly find that info.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:02 pm

With regards to Asia/US airfreight isn't the advantage for a stop at Anchorage a pre-planned resort? Asia and the US are both huge as markets and as to geography. Anchorage has the same sort of single hub dynamics that once served EK so well.
 
VV
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Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:07 pm

Polot wrote:
....
Sales of the 77F have been great. Boeing has sold 250+ of them in 15 years which is impressive for a new build freighter.

For comparison only ~230 767Fs have been sold (to mostly 2 customers) across almost 30 years, and just 346 747Fs in ~45 years across all variants (742F, 744F, 744ERF,748F). Not sure how many new build A300/A310s were made, can’t quickly find that info.


So, considering the fact Boeing will have to have new 767-class freighter and 777-8 freighter in 7 years, it means that the A350 freighter will be in the league too.

The numbers posted by Polot are likely correct and we ,know those numbers are not huge ones. It means if launched then the A350 freighter will not have so many orders either, especially with two competitors in the market (the new 767-class freighter and the 777-8F).

What is the total delivery volume you guys expect for the freighter version of A350 between 2027 and 2046?
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 847
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Tue Jun 22, 2021 1:30 pm

Polot wrote:
par13del wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:


Fallacy. Tech stops are very expensive. Consider the additional fatigue cycles, engine cycles, time inefficiency, risk of going tech, etc. Fuel burnt during decent and climb are greater than the cost of tankering.

Older designs were unable to go non-stop with economic payload. Just because these older, less efficient frames are/were technically unable to do nonstop, doesn't therefore mean the Operator's desire is to 1-stop. Nonstop is better and the 77F was the first frame that can carry normal payloads sufficient distance to enable these type of network changes.

So the sales of the 77F were not greater because..........

Sales of the 77F have been great. Boeing has sold 250+ of them in 15 years which is impressive for a new build freighter.

For comparison only ~230 767Fs have been sold (to mostly 2 customers) across almost 30 years, and just 346 747Fs in ~45 years across all variants (742F, 744F, 744ERF,748F). Not sure how many new build A300/A310s were made, can’t quickly find that info.


Further, the new builder freighter market was rather depressed over it's 15 year life span due to the rapid increase of passenger belly volume and weight capacity unlocked by the 77W, A346, A332/3 compared to the classical frames. It used to be that most freight was carried on dedicated freighters as the pax airplanes simply didn't have adequate payload remaining. That dynamic changed about the same time the 77F hit the market. In fact, a large number of air carriers dropped their freighter-only operations during this period and simply focused on belly freight.

So yes, as you stated, the 77F is the recent gold standard and sold extraordinarily well considering the challenging freight market. The 748F under performed expectations, largely due to the poor freight macro environment and heavily due to the success of the 77F.

The only other "modern" freighter to come out during that period is the A332F. It performed very poorly with a couple of operators even introducing it and then proceeded to abandon it (expensive mistake). One of the major problems with it is it's lack of range at economical payload (65+ T). It's not flexible enough in it's current iteration.

I still have doubts using 97klbs engines on an airframe significantly shorter than the -K. I don't think the v-stab is large enough for engine out performance at the elevated thrust level, and frankly, the h-stab may not be big enough for higher weights. It's much easier/cheaper to build a standard 900 into a F, take the small loss in payload, and make a stretch of it for integrators like DHL, UPS, FX that use lower densities. The plus side is this size sells on the pax front too as it better competes with the 78X (frankly, it should beat it on most missions).
 
amdiesen
Posts: 211
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:58 am

The biggest threat to the a350f launch would be an aggressive b772LR freighter conversion effort. A.Net has discussed rumors of Boeing exploring their own 777 conversion program and IAI is now expecting to convert one/year.

hypothesis:
* An effectively designed a350f, plus the big twin, kills 772f sales.
* The b773ersf is being touted with aggressive specs; after certification impacts, one would expect delivered/real-world frames to come in at a discount to these specs.
* The b773ersf's utility/cost is a competitive option for integrators in the VLA class. It's role in the mixed density space is uncertain. General cargo, over distance, at high utilization is its least best demographic.
datum: The power-plant, wings and major systems are ~the same btwn the b773ersf and the b772LR.
* Applying the same engineering to the shorter/lighter LR yields a product that competes in General cargo/over distance/mid-high utilization space at conversion economics.
* As the b772f is in the twilight of its production cycle, and freighters are comparatively long-lived tools, each b772f future new-build/sale has a 'substitution' effect/penalty for the b777xf program.
* the global b772 freighter fleet is comparatively young and the replacement cycle has yet to sunrise
* absent for freighters are expensive cabin refit costs. A factor in a carrier selling a twin powered mid-life freighter is that a competitor acquires a tool with material utility at favorable economics.
* Boeing designed the LR to be converted with specs for the cargo door and wired for the eventuality.

There are 30 carriers that are currently operating that have purchased new wb freighters. 50+% of these carriers are married to the 777 platform. Two+ carriers are "waning cargo operators". Facing an entrenched/ubiquitous 777 infrastructure, this leaves a limited number of carriers that would seriously consider an a350f.

UPS(16), Cathay(?), Cargolux(10), Singapore(8), ABC(?) and Atlas(?) are optimistic prospects for the a350f. Asiana has been removed from the list due to IAIs announcement that they have partnered with a Korean firm to convert frames. This factor along with Korean's ownership, increases the likelihood that Korean b77w frames will be converted to replace Asiana's aging b744cfs.

A well designed and executed a350f has optimistic long-term prospects and a symbiotic value add to a350 program ecosystem. However the risk is; with the ERSF capturing integrators/+partners and a capable LR conversion being able to compete in the general cargo space with economics; a pre-emptive and concerted b772LRp2f conversion effort would torpedo the a350f before it left the runway.
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 5:58 am

Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-freighter-exclusive-idUSKBN2B41NA

Reports coming out that Airbus looking to come for Boeing’s freighter business and seems to be marketing a potential Freighter version of the a350. It is looking for customers that will commit.

Analyst say they will probably want about 50 units to launch

Development costs will be about 2-3 billion


The above Reuters report is now three months old.

Is there any indications the aircraft will be launched soon?

It seems the launch is conditional to some airlines committing to the aircraft.
So the question is whether there are active campaigns to sell the aircraft and how close those marketing campaigns are to actual orders.

If anyone knows it would be nice to tell us which airlines or cargo forwarders are targeted so far.
 
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Taxi645
Posts: 478
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 11:57 am

amdiesen wrote:
A well designed and executed a350f has optimistic long-term prospects and a symbiotic value add to a350 program ecosystem. However the risk is; with the ERSF capturing integrators/+partners and a capable LR conversion being able to compete in the general cargo space with economics; a pre-emptive and concerted b772LRp2f conversion effort would torpedo the a350f before it left the runway.


However the risk for Boeing is that a successful LR conversion also takes away potential 777x freighter sales, meaning that the success of the 777x program would depend even more on the 779 alone. It could also compromise production rate bridging 777F sales.
 
Strato2
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:14 pm

VV wrote:
If anyone knows it would be nice to tell us which airlines or cargo forwarders are targeted so far.


Keep reading Leeham, Flightglobal etc. and you will eventually know.This place is not good for such since people that might know will respect their NDA's.
 
texl1649
Posts: 1895
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:38 am

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:08 pm

amdiesen wrote:
There are 30 carriers that are currently operating that have purchased new wb freighters. 50+% of these carriers are married to the 777 platform. Two+ carriers are "waning cargo operators". Facing an entrenched/ubiquitous 777 infrastructure, this leaves a limited number of carriers that would seriously consider an a350f.

UPS(16), Cathay(?), Cargolux(10), Singapore(8), ABC(?) and Atlas(?) are optimistic prospects for the a350f. Asiana has been removed from the list due to IAIs announcement that they have partnered with a Korean firm to convert frames. This factor along with Korean's ownership, increases the likelihood that Korean b77w frames will be converted to replace Asiana's aging b744cfs.

A well designed and executed a350f has optimistic long-term prospects and a symbiotic value add to a350 program ecosystem. However the risk is; with the ERSF capturing integrators/+partners and a capable LR conversion being able to compete in the general cargo space with economics; a pre-emptive and concerted b772LRp2f conversion effort would torpedo the a350f before it left the runway.


This is a very good post. Singapore even has newish pax A350’s parked still though. I highly doubt they are eager to sign on to replace the 744’s that are under 20 years old still, with a nascent A350F. UPS is in the midst of adding still 748’s and 767’s (maybe they have all of the 747’s, I dunno who gets the last couple frames). Cathay and Atlas I really don’t think are in position to add 10-50+ A350’s. ABC, who knows, but they still have 3 77F on order, so I doubt it. I just don’t see where the launch customers could come from.
 
Scotron12
Posts: 577
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:10 pm

Taxi645 wrote:
amdiesen wrote:
A well designed and executed a350f has optimistic long-term prospects and a symbiotic value add to a350 program ecosystem. However the risk is; with the ERSF capturing integrators/+partners and a capable LR conversion being able to compete in the general cargo space with economics; a pre-emptive and concerted b772LRp2f conversion effort would torpedo the a350f before it left the runway.


However the risk for Boeing is that a successful LR conversion also takes away potential 777x freighter sales, meaning that the success of the 777x program would depend even more on the 779 alone. It could also compromise production rate bridging 777F sales.


How will the latest FAA pushback on certification untl mid to late 2023 impact on the 777X Freighter, if any??
 
VV
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:03 pm

Strato2 wrote:
VV wrote:
If anyone knows it would be nice to tell us which airlines or cargo forwarders are targeted so far.


Keep reading Leeham, Flightglobal etc. and you will eventually know.This place is not good for such since people that might know will respect their NDA's.


Or perhaps they do not know at all in general and just saying stuff.
 
oldJoe
Posts: 649
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:17 pm

VV wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-freighter-exclusive-idUSKBN2B41NA

Reports coming out that Airbus looking to come for Boeing’s freighter business and seems to be marketing a potential Freighter version of the a350. It is looking for customers that will commit.

Analyst say they will probably want about 50 units to launch

Development costs will be about 2-3 billion


The above Reuters report is now three months old.

Is there any indications the aircraft will be launched soon?

It seems the launch is conditional to some airlines committing to the aircraft.
So the question is whether there are active campaigns to sell the aircraft and how close those marketing campaigns are to actual orders.

If anyone knows it would be nice to tell us which airlines or cargo forwarders are targeted so far.


https://airinsight.com/customers-push-airbus-to-launch-a350f/

This article is dated June 15, 2021 and says that Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer claims: Customers push Airbus to launch A350F!
I find it extremely interesting but which customers he does not say (unfortunately)
 
amdiesen
Posts: 211
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:27 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Wed Jun 30, 2021 9:50 pm

texl1649 wrote:
amdiesen wrote:
There are 30 carriers that are currently operating that have purchased new wb freighters. 50+% of these carriers are married to the 777 platform. Two+ carriers are "waning cargo operators". Facing an entrenched/ubiquitous 777 infrastructure, this leaves a limited number of carriers that would seriously consider an a350f.

UPS(16), Cathay(?), Cargolux(10), Singapore(8), ABC(?) and Atlas(?) are optimistic prospects for the a350f. Asiana has been removed from the list due to IAIs announcement that they have partnered with a Korean firm to convert frames. This factor along with Korean's ownership, increases the likelihood that Korean b77w frames will be converted to replace Asiana's aging b744cfs.

A well designed and executed a350f has optimistic long-term prospects and a symbiotic value add to a350 program ecosystem. However the risk is; with the ERSF capturing integrators/+partners and a capable LR conversion being able to compete in the general cargo space with economics; a pre-emptive and concerted b772LRp2f conversion effort would torpedo the a350f before it left the runway.


This is a very good post. Singapore even has newish pax A350’s parked still though. I highly doubt they are eager to sign on to replace the 744’s that are under 20 years old still, with a nascent A350F. UPS is in the midst of adding still 748’s and 767’s (maybe they have all of the 747’s, I dunno who gets the last couple frames). Cathay and Atlas I really don’t think are in position to add 10-50+ A350’s. ABC, who knows, but they still have 3 77F on order, so I doubt it. I just don’t see where the launch customers could come from.


One could get a sense of the mosaic reading post 52, 54, 158, 242, 263, 264, 271, 295
Lifecycle: a359.5f, a359p2f and ultrafan a35Jf ---> value to Airbus and its ecosystem
Comparative utility as a single type or within a mixed fleet
 
VV
Posts: 2352
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:39 am

oldJoe wrote:
VV wrote:
...

Is there any indications the aircraft will be launched soon?

It seems the launch is conditional to some airlines committing to the aircraft.
So the question is whether there are active campaigns to sell the aircraft and how close those marketing campaigns are to actual orders.

If anyone knows it would be nice to tell us which airlines or cargo forwarders are targeted so far.


https://airinsight.com/customers-push-airbus-to-launch-a350f/

This article is dated June 15, 2021 and says that Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer claims: Customers push Airbus to launch A350F!
I find it extremely interesting but which customers he does not say (unfortunately)


It seems Airbus will have to launch it if they want to be in the freighter market.

It looks like the A330neo freighter, if offered, would not be more successful than the A330-200F. The only option left is the A350F.
 
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flee
Posts: 1483
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:55 am

VV wrote:
It seems Airbus will have to launch it if they want to be in the freighter market.

It looks like the A330neo freighter, if offered, would not be more successful than the A330-200F. The only option left is the A350F.

I think that currently, there seems to be demand for volume in freighters - probably a result of ecommerce growing rapidly. Seems like there are quite a few orders for A333 P2F - so any A330Neo freighter will probably need to be based on the A339. And as the rumours of the A350F seem to indicate a longer than A359 fuselage, it is again proving that customers like a bit more volume in their freighters.
 
FlapOperator
Posts: 285
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2021 4:07 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sat Jul 03, 2021 7:10 pm

I think the 350F's future will be determined by Fedex. They are the single user who would legitimately make the 50 firm/50 options type initial order that would make the program a go. I doubt UPS under its current management, or any of the other US freight haulers want to tie into a new build freighter program of that scale.

Personally, I think Fedex would be well advised to do so, as being married to one vendor is a dangerous move, regardless of the performance the 777/767 are apparently providing.
 
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zeke
Posts: 16356
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Jul 04, 2021 2:07 am

FlapOperator wrote:
Personally, I think Fedex would be well advised to do so, as being married to one vendor is a dangerous move, regardless of the performance the 777/767 are apparently providing.


Something will have to give, all current production freighters do not meet the new noise requirements that are due to come in some years away, eventually there will be a no choice. Additionally the engines for the KC-46 are only guaranteed to be in production for a few more years, I think I read 2027 is the planned end of line.
 
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Revelation
Posts: 26691
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Sun Jul 04, 2021 1:31 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
I think the 350F's future will be determined by Fedex. They are the single user who would legitimately make the 50 firm/50 options type initial order that would make the program a go. I doubt UPS under its current management, or any of the other US freight haulers want to tie into a new build freighter program of that scale.

Then it may be a while before we see the next new freighter model, because Boeing is happy to sell FX new 77F at good prices and FX is happy to buy them.

Yet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FedEx_Express#Fleet suggests there are 50 or so MD-11s that will need to be replaced.

It certainly feels like a good time for Team A to be aggressive.

Team B keeps stepping all over its own dingus, the freighter market is cracking, and the A350 is an excellent product with room for growth.

Jon Ostrower hinted at a package of A350 improvements yet to be announced for A350F.

Things could line up in such a way that A350F becomes ready for service just about the time FX wants to begin replacing MD11 in earnest.

Who knows how things will turn out, but it'd be nice to see someone announce a new wide body freighter, be it Team A or Team B or both.

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