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lightsaber
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:46 am

zeke wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Has there ever been a case where Airbus or Boeing had ATO from the board for a model and it didn't get built?


A380F (Both UPS and Fedex assigned customers), A350-800, original A350 (based off A330).

There will have to be enough orders, which I think there will be, to go forward with the A350 freighter.

The original A350 (A330 based) just wasn't enough. Too many customers looked back at the 787 (which had enough issues for customers to tell Airbus what they really wanted).
The A380F was a case of sold, but then the Catia version IV/V debacle resulted in too much delay.

There must be enough sales to move forward, but let me be clear, I do not expect the board to have set a tough to achieve threshold of minimum sales. This is a derivative, so risk is less.

Lightsaber
 
B777LRF
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:41 am

Opus99 wrote:
And who are you to judge whether it will not be competitive or not, do you want to give us details?

QR is willing to order either/or and they have seen both. please speak with sense


The A350-1000 is roughly 40 tons lighter than the 777-9. The freighter versions of both are likely to retain that delta, albeit the 777XF is currently based on the -8 and the OEW difference is therefore iikely to be around 30 tons. Given that the max. payload for both will be around the same 90 tons, it doesn't take much to deduct that the Boeing offering will be far less competitive; 30 tons of extra weight does come with a rather large penalty.

QR have expressed a desire to buy either of the two offerings, that is all we know. We don't, however, know what numbers have been presented to them by either Boeing nor Airbus and, besides, anything coming out the mouth of AAB must be taken with a generous helping of salt.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:46 am

Revelation wrote:
I think they express forward thinking sentiments when on the public stage, whereas when holding conferences with policy makers their words are inline with what Reuters reports:

Most airliners will rely on traditional jet engines until at least 2050, Airbus (AIR.PA) told European Union officials in a briefing released on Thursday on its research into creating zero-emissions hydrogen fuelled planes.

The planemaker says it plans to develop the world's first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035, but has not publicly said whether the technology will be ready for the replacement for the medium-haul A320, due to be rolled out in the 2030s.

February's briefing to EU officials appeared to rule this out.

"Zero-emission hydrogen aircraft will be primarily focused on regional and shorter-range aircraft from 2035. Which means that current and future iterations of highly efficient gas turbines will still be required as we move towards 2050, especially for long-haul operations," the presentation said.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-10/

I don't even think regional aircraft will fall into the hydrogen bucket since these are no longer short ranged.

Then we get to the minor detail that no one has a carbon neutral process to make hydrogen.


Can we post that this information in the Boeing CEO New Plane thread? It's exhausting with all of the Boeing apologiest defending Boeing doing nothing in the narrow body segment until new fuels/electrification is available.... So we fly the 737 until 2050? I'm glad to see Airbus be brave and take on a well established encumbant in the freighter market.... It gets old hearing everyone defend Boeing's lack of courage/action in the narrow body segment where they were until recently the well established encumbant. Sorry for the diversion... As a fan of all things aeronautical... I'm glad to see one manufacturer grow a set.... Godspeed to the A350F.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 6:11 am

Revelation wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I agree with your assessment. I find it refreshing and courageous for a manufacturer to be so forward thinking, leading the way even before customers commit!

I think they express forward thinking sentiments when on the public stage, whereas when holding conferences with policy makers their words are inline with what Reuters reports:

Most airliners will rely on traditional jet engines until at least 2050, Airbus (AIR.PA) told European Union officials in a briefing released on Thursday on its research into creating zero-emissions hydrogen fuelled planes.

The planemaker says it plans to develop the world's first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035, but has not publicly said whether the technology will be ready for the replacement for the medium-haul A320, due to be rolled out in the 2030s.

February's briefing to EU officials appeared to rule this out.

"Zero-emission hydrogen aircraft will be primarily focused on regional and shorter-range aircraft from 2035. Which means that current and future iterations of highly efficient gas turbines will still be required as we move towards 2050, especially for long-haul operations," the presentation said.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-06-10/

I don't even think regional aircraft will fall into the hydrogen bucket since these are no longer short ranged.

Then we get to the minor detail that no one has a carbon neutral process to make hydrogen.


You seem to want to focus on this, I don't see a difference in what they are saying in public or in....public to policymakers. Unless you are saying there is a zero-emission engine/fuel now available that Airbus is not pursuing? Seems like they are saying they are moving towards this goal, but do not expect this to be a quick process where all aircraft will be replaced in a few short years. Those airlines that buy what is available in 2030 will still fly the aircraft going into the 2050's, right? Makes sense to me.
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:24 am

B777LRF wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
And who are you to judge whether it will not be competitive or not, do you want to give us details?

QR is willing to order either/or and they have seen both. please speak with sense


The A350-1000 is roughly 40 tons lighter than the 777-9. The freighter versions of both are likely to retain that delta, albeit the 777XF is currently based on the -8 and the OEW difference is therefore iikely to be around 30 tons. Given that the max. payload for both will be around the same 90 tons, it doesn't take much to deduct that the Boeing offering will be far less competitive; 30 tons of extra weight does come with a rather large penalty.

QR have expressed a desire to buy either of the two offerings, that is all we know. We don't, however, know what numbers have been presented to them by either Boeing nor Airbus and, besides, anything coming out the mouth of AAB must be taken with a generous helping of salt.

And I’m sure the sales between the two aircraft you mentioned represent that inability to compete. But okay.

Also the payload between the two will not be around the same 90 tons. From what we have seen similar but not the same. Do you happen to know what the volume of both will be? 350F is 109 tonnes and 777Xf between 115 to 117 tonnes.

What if the 777XF has more volume than the A350F? If you also don’t know the volume then what you’ve said here is also very inconclusive. So here we are

It has newer generation engines than the XWB.


But I suppose it’s a.net so when Airbus makes something there’s no lack of over excitement till people are brought back down to earth

People on this forum don’t rate the 777X at all. I don’t understand it
Last edited by Opus99 on Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
2175301
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:26 am

I agree with Revelation, this is just permission to develop the concept. It is not a product launch with orders.

I note that Boeing had permission from its board to develop the NMA... and nothing came from it. In non-aircraft areas most product ideas that enter "development" don't go into production.

Boeing has had permission for many years from the Board to develop a 777X-F.

Now, I hope Airbus manages to build it and show what their concept can do. I'm not sure it will be a market success though. Perhaps yes, Perhaps no. It depends a lot on what Boeing does and how many 777W's get converted to Freighters.

I also expect the 764-F to be developed and produced. Most of the projected Freighter market was in 767 size range aircraft and not 777 size range aircraft.

Have a great day,
 
Strato2
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 7:59 am

2175301 wrote:
Now, I hope Airbus manages to build it and show what their concept can do. I'm not sure it will be a market success though. Perhaps yes, Perhaps no. It depends a lot on what Boeing does and how many 777W's get converted to Freighters.

I also expect the 764-F to be developed and produced. Most of the projected Freighter market was in 767 size range aircraft and not 777 size range aircraft.

Have a great day,


Out of the A350F vs. 764F it is the 764F that will fail as it would be obsolete technology that will greatly hamper it's economics.
 
Opus99
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:01 am

Strato2 wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Now, I hope Airbus manages to build it and show what their concept can do. I'm not sure it will be a market success though. Perhaps yes, Perhaps no. It depends a lot on what Boeing does and how many 777W's get converted to Freighters.

I also expect the 764-F to be developed and produced. Most of the projected Freighter market was in 767 size range aircraft and not 777 size range aircraft.

Have a great day,


Out of the A350F vs. 764F it is the 764F that will fail as it would be obsolete technology that will greatly hamper it's economics.

You see you people’s problem. Are they in the same size category? My God
 
Noshow
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:27 am

I don't see the launch. Like Boeing announcing one day they will develop some 777X freighter. Good to know but not current news.
 
2175301
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:33 am

Strato2 wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Now, I hope Airbus manages to build it and show what their concept can do. I'm not sure it will be a market success though. Perhaps yes, Perhaps no. It depends a lot on what Boeing does and how many 777W's get converted to Freighters.

I also expect the 764-F to be developed and produced. Most of the projected Freighter market was in 767 size range aircraft and not 777 size range aircraft.

Have a great day,


Out of the A350F vs. 764F it is the 764F that will fail as it would be obsolete technology that will greatly hamper it's economics.


I bow to your obvious greater knowledge. Given your input it now seems obvious that the A350F will replace all cargo aircraft from the Cessna Caravan to the B747F because it's more modern technology. Size of aircraft to market does not matter, Cost to move a ton of cargo, even if you only have a ton or two to move, does not matter. And ALL airports (including the small city airports) will build large modern airports to handle the A350F just because its more modern.

Obviously....

On the other hand, I don't think so. The single largest selling new and P2F cargo aircraft the last 20 years has been the 767. Size matters....
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:41 am

2175301 wrote:
Now, I hope Airbus manages to build it and show what their concept can do. I'm not sure it will be a market success though. Perhaps yes, Perhaps no. It depends a lot on what Boeing does and how many 777W's get converted to Freighters.

I also expect the 764-F to be developed and produced. Most of the projected Freighter market was in 767 size range aircraft and not 777 size range aircraft.

Have a great day,


The market always evolves - 747's were the main new build freighters, but also DC-10's and MD-11's. When the 777F was first being launched there was a lot of question whether its capabilities would make it successful. Now as many of these are retiring, what is best with the replacement capacity. Lately the trend seems to be the 767 capability, rather than larger.

There is an end date for the 763F, makes excellent sense to do the 764-F using the GEnX engines. Continues the line but also offers capabilities between the other available freighters.

There is an end date for the 772-F, but a promising conversion market with the 77W's and the future 77X-F as new builds.

How the A350 fits into the overall market will be interesting to watch
 
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:53 am

mxaxai wrote:
For example, there was a lot of speculation whether the A350F would be based on the -900, the -1000, or a new length inbetween. Even Airbus themselves were running the numbers on multiple configurations. Today, Airbus officially decided on a specific length that they want to sell to airlines.

Did they? I interpret their comments as the A350F being based on the A350-1000 platform (MLG and other specifics for this type), but length is not confirmed AFAIK know. I asked Zeke, who often has sources, but he couldn't confirm either.

zeke wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Has there ever been a case where Airbus or Boeing had ATO from the board for a model and it didn't get built?


A380F (Both UPS and Fedex assigned customers), A350-800, original A350 (based off A330).

Did Boeing's Sonic Cruiser receive ATO? I wasn't an A-net member at that time, but I believe AA already was said to be interested in buying a bunch of those.

Strato2 wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Now, I hope Airbus manages to build it and show what their concept can do. I'm not sure it will be a market success though. Perhaps yes, Perhaps no. It depends a lot on what Boeing does and how many 777W's get converted to Freighters.

I also expect the 764-F to be developed and produced. Most of the projected Freighter market was in 767 size range aircraft and not 777 size range aircraft.

Have a great day,


Out of the A350F vs. 764F it is the 764F that will fail as it would be obsolete technology that will greatly hamper it's economics.


Only your biased opinion, which we all know about. The 764F will be the successor to the 763F and will have emission-compliant engines post 2027. It will be interesting for cargo airlines now operating the 763F (and 330F), which is quite a substantial potential customer base. It will be a lot cheaper than operating the A350F, which is perfectly logical as the A350F will appeal current 77F and 747F operators. I can't see 763F operators replacing these with A350F. It will capture a totally different part of the market IMO.
 
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:00 am

Opus99 wrote:
It has newer generation engines than the XWB.


I don’t think this is factual, the XWB-97 had its first test flight in 2015, and went it 2017 for the GE9X ?

Being so close to each other they would be classified as the same generation. The real difference between the two is when the engines have entered service subsequently. We have already seen improvements on the XWB engine, and up thread there was mention of another 2% improvement in the XWB engine.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:06 am

2175301 wrote:
The single largest selling new and P2F cargo aircraft the last 20 years has been the 767. Size matters....


Exactly. So, I am quite flabbergasted that Calhoun says there entire Cargo market strategy is just 777XF and just that. Boeing had always been sharp on right sizing and I expected they would be sharper in the cargo market as well. I think it would be smarter to launch an 767XF for the cargo market and let the A350F grab the much smaller top end.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:14 am

2175301 wrote:
Boeing has had permission for many years from the Board to develop a 777X-F.


Not sure if you have been on a.net recently, Boeing have had a few slight issues with things like delivering a tanker, delivering a 737, delivering a 787, delivering a 777, and cancellations of 777-8 orders. Add COVID to the mix and you might realise there is a shortage of green to pay for the new projects.

I’m not disagreeing that a 77XF was given board approval, I just don’t think a decision that was made so long ago before those issues is relevant to Boeing’s position today.

The A350F board approval on the other hand comes on the back of extremely good results from Airbus that has surprised many, and they are delivering A320NEOs, A330NEOs, A350s, tankers, and put loss making projects to bed. They have their projects delivering, they have the cash, so the prospects are very different.
 
DartHerald
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:27 am

zeke wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
It has newer generation engines than the XWB.


I don’t think this is factual, the XWB-97 had its first test flight in 2015, and went it 2017 for the GE9X ?

Being so close to each other they would be classified as the same generation. The real difference between the two is when the engines have entered service subsequently. We have already seen improvements on the XWB engine, and up thread there was mention of another 2% improvement in the XWB engine.


Much has been made on here of the 763F being popular because its wingspan fits smaller gates, but doesn't the 764 have extended wingtips? If so, will the 764F still fit the same smaller gates? If it doesn't, will it not then be in a more level competition with the better-shaped A330-200F (or a neo version thereof)?
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:49 am

DartHerald wrote:
Much has been made on here of the 763F being popular because its wingspan fits smaller gates


Normal general cargo ramps don’t have gates.
 
Opus99
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:54 am

zeke wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Boeing has had permission for many years from the Board to develop a 777X-F.


Not sure if you have been on a.net recently, Boeing have had a few slight issues with things like delivering a tanker, delivering a 737, delivering a 787, delivering a 777, and cancellations of 777-8 orders. Add COVID to the mix and you might realise there is a shortage of green to pay for the new projects.

I’m not disagreeing that a 77XF was given board approval, I just don’t think a decision that was made so long ago before those issues is relevant to Boeing’s position today.

The A350F board approval on the other hand comes on the back of extremely good results from Airbus that has surprised many, and they are delivering A320NEOs, A330NEOs, A350s, tankers, and put loss making projects to bed. They have their projects delivering, they have the cash, so the prospects are very different.

Don’t worry. They have the money. Development budget accounts for XF alongside max10 and 779. According to Calhoun. However much they need to bring they don’t need to bring it on day one. If they do I’m sure Boeing won’t have a problem getting access to capital on top of the 20 billion in cash and marketable securities.

Peak of 777X development money has been spent according to the CFO. All these things were said during the earnings call.

Considering XWB. Okay same generation, I’m going off some comments from lightsaber concerning GE9X as well as GEs comments on GE9X. I don’t expect the difference to be astronomical or anything.

More generally speaking. People on a.net do not rate the 777X at all, I hope you guys have a plan if you guys end up being wrong
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:59 am

JonesNL wrote:
2175301 wrote:
The single largest selling new and P2F cargo aircraft the last 20 years has been the 767. Size matters....


Exactly. So, I am quite flabbergasted that Calhoun says there entire Cargo market strategy is just 777XF and just that. Boeing had always been sharp on right sizing and I expected they would be sharper in the cargo market as well. I think it would be smarter to launch an 767XF for the cargo market and let the A350F grab the much smaller top end.


I´m not sure if this really had much to do with size and not more with availability. Until quite recently the 767 line was the only line available in the W/B market which was not maxed out in terms of production. 777 - full for years. A330 - full for years. A350 - full for years. If you wanted to have a new freighter it was either the 777F or a 767F. And in the secondary market it was a pretty similar picture, with only the 767 to be had in quantities for P2F conversions, as all others were in hot demand with pax carrier. Only about 1.5 years ago the picture started to change drastically.

However, at that point both FedEx and UPS had already made up their mind, and ordered the 767F in large volume. Part of these orders are certainly based on the plane being right-sized, however I think the second part comes from simply having no alternative if not wanting to move up to the 777F. The A330 P2F was simply not available due to lack of feedstock, and the A300/310 were out of production and not available in the 2nd-hand market anymore.

Thus I think there might be some reason to Mr. Calhoun´s words. The segment below the A350F / B777F is now quite liquid in capacity from the secondary market, and will remain so for quite some time. This will drive down requirements for new builds in this segment down to a point where it does no longer make sense to pursure such opportunities. It´s in principle what we see in the N/B market, too. The market is too liquid to warrent any new-build N/B freighter from either A&B, and IMO the bar has just moved into the 767 territory recently.

That does clearly not mean an end of the 767F line today, but the likelyhood of being able to place further large new-build quantities in this market segment is shrinking fast.
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:05 am

Opus99 wrote:
zeke wrote:
2175301 wrote:
Boeing has had permission for many years from the Board to develop a 777X-F.


Not sure if you have been on a.net recently, Boeing have had a few slight issues with things like delivering a tanker, delivering a 737, delivering a 787, delivering a 777, and cancellations of 777-8 orders. Add COVID to the mix and you might realise there is a shortage of green to pay for the new projects.

I’m not disagreeing that a 77XF was given board approval, I just don’t think a decision that was made so long ago before those issues is relevant to Boeing’s position today.

The A350F board approval on the other hand comes on the back of extremely good results from Airbus that has surprised many, and they are delivering A320NEOs, A330NEOs, A350s, tankers, and put loss making projects to bed. They have their projects delivering, they have the cash, so the prospects are very different.

Don’t worry. They have the money. Development budget accounts for XF alongside max10 and 779. According to Calhoun. However much they need to bring they don’t need to bring it on day one. If they do I’m sure Boeing won’t have a problem getting access to capital on top of the 20 billion in cash and marketable securities.

Peak of 777X development money has been spent according to the CFO. All these things were said during the earnings call.

Considering XWB. Okay same generation, I’m going off some comments from lightsaber concerning GE9X as well as GEs comments on GE9X. I don’t expect the difference to be astronomical or anything.

More generally speaking. People on a.net do not rate the 777X at all, I hope you guys have a plan if you guys end up being wrong

To launch a 77XF is not a question about having the money or not to develop, it’s a question weather Boeing sees a business case which will yield enough return on the investment. I believe it may eventually well do, but only Boeing can tell as they know the freighter market better than anyone else.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:21 am

Airbus just decided to develop the variant, they did not commit to building it. If they find customers good, if they do not a lot of the work will be useful, if somebody is ever thinking about an A350P2F.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:32 am

seahawk wrote:
Airbus just decided to develop the variant, they did not commit to building it. If they find customers good, if they do not a lot of the work will be useful, if somebody is ever thinking about an A350P2F.

Its hard to imagine that no consideration was given to the possibility of a factory freighter when they were developing the A350. I wonder how much work there really is to do? I imagine the likely location of the cargo door and floor requirements are already largely known.
Does the A350 have the same issue as the 777 with floor beams that are not suitable for cargo operations?
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:47 am

BrianDromey wrote:
Its hard to imagine that no consideration was given to the possibility of a factory freighter when they were developing the A350. I wonder how much work there really is to do? I imagine the likely location of the cargo door and floor requirements are already largely known.
Does the A350 have the same issue as the 777 with floor beams that are not suitable for cargo operations?


The freighter was part of the launch announcement in 2006 “ A freighter version, the A350-900F will complement the passenger models.”

From https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... ahead.html

Original plan was to replace the side panels on the -900, and put the -1000 wing and gear onto the -900 for the F model. Since then the -1000 changed, the speculation now is the A350F will be between the -900 and -1000 length.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:58 am

This comment from Faury says all that needs to be said about launch orders. Airbus are seeing the F as an incremental contributor to the overall A350 portfolio, not a stand alone product with its own P&L:

"He was equally reserved on how many of the new widebody freighters Airbus aims to sell or the market share it hopes to capture with the A350F, saying only that production rates will depend on “the commercial success” of the program. “The beauty of this program is that it will be embedded in the A350 production system,” he explained. “Owing to the commonality with the A350-900 and -1000 we will put [the freighter version] in the final assembly lines of the passenger A350. So we do not plan for individual production rates for the freighter.”

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... rsion-a350
 
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scbriml
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:12 pm

zeke wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Has there ever been a case where Airbus or Boeing had ATO from the board for a model and it didn't get built?


A380F (Both UPS and Fedex assigned customers), A350-800, original A350 (based off A330).


But the A380F and A358 were both offered as part of a "family launch", not as a later development. Original A350 I accept.
 
DartHerald
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:26 pm

zeke wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
Much has been made on here of the 763F being popular because its wingspan fits smaller gates


Normal general cargo ramps don’t have gates.


Stands, then? The comment has certainly been made that the A330's wingspan is too great, so it must have to fit some defined area!
 
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Spacepope
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:38 pm

zeke wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
Much has been made on here of the 763F being popular because its wingspan fits smaller gates


Normal general cargo ramps don’t have gates.


But major cargo hubs like MEM and SDF do.
 
rbavfan
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:39 pm

Niloko wrote:
zeke wrote:
Niloko wrote:
Is there a list about which planes will not meet that requirement?


In terms of widebodies, any aircraft not powered by a modern engine like the GEnx, Trent 7000, GE9X, Trent XWB. The older engines will not meet the more restrictive requirements. To this end I expect to see an Airbus to also offer the NEO options on the other freighter models.

Ah. So are engines like Trent 900 and 2nd gen GE90 considered modern still or do they barely miss the mark? The 2nd gen GE90 only flew first in 2002 for example.


I'm betting that being 25 years from EIS they won't meet 2027 specs for new planes. Noting that aircraft made before the date should be able to fly in quite a few countries after 2027 as it only affects new sales at that time.
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:42 pm

DartHerald wrote:
Stands, then? The comment has certainly been made that the A330's wingspan is too great, so it must have to fit some defined area!


No general cargo stands are geared around 747s, A330s easily fit. Where ramp space is raised is the major hubs for Fedex and UPS. Personally I think its a red herring as they adopted the 77F/744F/748Fs into their fleets and they seem to fit somehow.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:55 pm

DartHerald wrote:
zeke wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
Much has been made on here of the 763F being popular because its wingspan fits smaller gates


Normal general cargo ramps don’t have gates.


Stands, then? The comment has certainly been made that the A330's wingspan is too great, so it must have to fit some defined area!

The gate/stand size issue is very specific to one (or two) customer(s). UPS and (Fedex) and then only for their domestic American network.

The A350F will probably not be considered by both airlines for this specific market. They might order it for different (international) routes in their networks. Both airlines already have bigger planes in their fleets, 777, 747. For other cargo airlines the wingspan should not be an issue at all, they also mainly operate 777s and 747s now. The A350F will be targeting this market segment and is not bigger then both of these planes.

But this leaves a gap in the product ranges of both Airbus and Boeing. The US domestic market is big enough to for a new development in this size range that fits these ramps, like a re-engined 767 or cargo variant of the Boeing NMA. I don't think that Airbus has something to offer in this exact size range, that would also be a completely new development, which is as unlikely as the Boeing NMA right now. This means that this will keep on coming up at a-net as long as nothing is launched for this market. That's just the way it works here.
 
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zeke
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 1:56 pm

Spacepope wrote:
But major cargo hubs like MEM and SDF do.


I don't know enough about SDF to comment on that, the majority of stands at MEM do not have direct terminal access, and I would think wherever the A300/MD11/777 park now would be able to accommodate an A330/A350. Again I think this is a red herring, they went from 108 ft on the 727 to 160+ ft for the 763F without the world stopping.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:11 pm

scbriml wrote:
Revelation wrote:
In other words we're really not in that much different a place than we were four months ago when this thread was started. It seems Airbus has iterated their concept and the related design models a bunch of times and presumably are getting positive feedback from potential customers which is a step forward, but no contracts signed thus no actual commitment to build an airplane.

Has there ever been a case where Airbus or Boeing had ATO from the board for a model and it didn't get built?

You seem intent on portraying this as something of a "hail mary", when I imagine it's way more significant than that. The board doesn't agree to ATO a project on a whim.

The main point I've been making is that this should not be called a launch when no commercial information (list price, orders, etc) have been announced. FG termed it "board approval to develop" which seems to be a better description than "launch". We don't honestly know if Airbus has signable offers on the table or not. To do that they'd have to know schedule and budget info in enough detail to formulate price and delivery details. One way we'd know that is if there were signed orders, but we know of none.

You seem to be projecting the possible outcomes as either boom or bust. Another possibility is fizzle, ala A330F. We won't know what path A350F is on till we see orders in the book. Gaining orders has been the challenge all along, I think it is fair to say. It seems to me some are letting the "drug like rush" of this announcement blind them to the lack of orders.

zeke wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Has there ever been a case where Airbus or Boeing had ATO from the board for a model and it didn't get built?

A380F (Both UPS and Fedex assigned customers), A350-800, original A350 (based off A330).

A380F even had long lead items built.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:20 pm

I think the 767F market can be replaced by 737/777 and A321/A330 P2F conversions. P2F is excellent for low density parcel freighters. The A350F will be long haul, high density freighter, competing in the 77F and 747F market.

Airbus launched the A350F at their 1H 2021 financial reporting meeting. I guess they wanted to launch the A350F before everything closes down for the summer holidays. Many people working in industry in the EU, start their holidays today/now. When people get back to work in September, I guess we will have an announcement naming launch operators and more details about the A350F. The first A350F must start test flying in about three years in order to enter into service in 2025.

In others words, I reckon we will see an A350F doing first flight before the 777-9 (pax) is certified.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:27 pm

reidar76 wrote:
The A350F will be long haul, high density freighter, competing in the 77F and 747F market.


Over the past couple of decades cargo density has been reducing more from higher density, think perishables like food, more towards e-commerce. A lot of e-commerce shipments are over packed, with high volume and low mass (think cell phones or TVs). Cut the same volume up as a cell phone box from fruit (which contains a lot of water), it will be somewhat heavier than the cell phone.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:34 pm

2175301 wrote:
I note that Boeing had permission from its board to develop the NMA... and nothing came from it.

It would have been interesting to see this board's reaction if Boeing did a PR blitz about "launching" NMA when all that actually happened was the board gave approval to develop it.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 2:37 pm

frigatebird wrote:
mxaxai wrote:
For example, there was a lot of speculation whether the A350F would be based on the -900, the -1000, or a new length inbetween. Even Airbus themselves were running the numbers on multiple configurations. Today, Airbus officially decided on a specific length that they want to sell to airlines.

Did they? I interpret their comments as the A350F being based on the A350-1000 platform (MLG and other specifics for this type), but length is not confirmed AFAIK know. I asked Zeke, who often has sources, but he couldn't confirm either.

I highly doubt that the BoD would sign off on a length that is still TBD. I agree that it hasn't been announced yet, nor any other performance metrics, but I'm sure that it's been firmed internally. The engineers have some leeway to adjust small things later (like the exact position of the cargo door) but major late changes add cost and time to the development.

In engineering, 80% of the costs are determined by decisions made during the conceptual design phase, even if cost overruns usually happen towards the end of the project. Once you've started preliminary design and made performance guarantees to customers, major configuration changes should be avoided if at all possible.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:01 pm

zeke wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
But major cargo hubs like MEM and SDF do.


I don't know enough about SDF to comment on that, the majority of stands at MEM do not have direct terminal access, and I would think wherever the A300/MD11/777 park now would be able to accommodate an A330/A350. Again I think this is a red herring, they went from 108 ft on the 727 to 160+ ft for the 763F without the world stopping.


One big way was quadrupling the size of the MEM ramp. The FEDEX ramp facility is bigger than Downtown Memphis. Its still a tight fit in places for stuff like a -11 or 767.

Now, I've heard rumors that everyone finally agrees that MEM has reached its culminating point. Lack of ramp personnel (people being bussed in from 2-3 hours away,) and the airport footprint is driving the build out of other ramp facilities, like GSO, AFW, OAK, ANC, ORD and of course, the likely biggest winner, IND.

I bet there would be a bit of an internal political issue if the "latest and greatest" aircraft was predominately based in ANC, LAX and/or IND.
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:02 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Can we post that this information in the Boeing CEO New Plane thread? It's exhausting with all of the Boeing apologiest defending Boeing doing nothing in the narrow body segment until new fuels/electrification is available.... So we fly the 737 until 2050? I'm glad to see Airbus be brave and take on a well established encumbant in the freighter market.... It gets old hearing everyone defend Boeing's lack of courage/action in the narrow body segment where they were until recently the well established encumbant. Sorry for the diversion... As a fan of all things aeronautical... I'm glad to see one manufacturer grow a set.... Godspeed to the A350F.

It's hard to know where to post such stuff, since it seems pretty much every idea about what may happen in the future gets squashed because it doesn't meet nebulous goals stated by politicians and corporate executives that pretty much every technologist feels won't be met.

Of course low emissions is what everyone wants. In the US we refer to this as a "motherhood and apple pie" statement, two great things no one can object to, thus no politician or executive can go wrong by lavish public support for the concepts.

Yet there's the "inconvenient truth" that we the aviation industry is based on price points based on cheap fuel, and developing alternates is going to result in more costly aircraft and more costly fuel, things the airline executives will fight to avoid.

Thus we get "triangulation" between loud public "motherhood and apple pie" statements while we see the reality of the situation being discussed quietly in private.

The aerospace manufacturers are caught in the middle, knowing they can get gobs of government funds to go down the 'clean energy' path yet knowing it will be a challenge to ever deliver something with the performance and price targets the airlines are accustomed to. They have their own triangulation to perform.

If Airbus's private statements about needing traditional gas turbines through 2050 are true, it seems the manufacturers have the unfortunate problem of having to develop solutions for both traditional and 'clean' approaches, or have to gamble that one will pan out and the other will fail.

enzo011 wrote:
You seem to want to focus on this, I don't see a difference in what they are saying in public or in....public to policymakers. Unless you are saying there is a zero-emission engine/fuel now available that Airbus is not pursuing? Seems like they are saying they are moving towards this goal, but do not expect this to be a quick process where all aircraft will be replaced in a few short years. Those airlines that buy what is available in 2030 will still fly the aircraft going into the 2050's, right? Makes sense to me.

To me they seem to be saying they are moving towards laudable goals in public forums such as quarterly results announcements yet in low key surroundings like meetings with EU officials they are saying to expect more of the same through 2050 except for perhaps short regional flights.

IMO those short regional flights will probably need massive subsidies to ever happen because suitable aircraft will cost massive amounts of money to develop and certify and their fuel will be far more costly than traditional fuels. However we see the governments feel compelled to fund such development efforts and corporations are always glad to accept cash from the public coffers, regardless of feasibility.

As interesting as the CFM RISE announcement was, I have to think they quietly have a more traditional engine in development as a backup plan.
 
Opus99
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:05 pm

reidar76 wrote:
I think the 767F market can be replaced by 737/777 and A321/A330 P2F conversions. P2F is excellent for low density parcel freighters. The A350F will be long haul, high density freighter, competing in the 77F and 747F market.

Airbus launched the A350F at their 1H 2021 financial reporting meeting. I guess they wanted to launch the A350F before everything closes down for the summer holidays. Many people working in industry in the EU, start their holidays today/now. When people get back to work in September, I guess we will have an announcement naming launch operators and more details about the A350F. The first A350F must start test flying in about three years in order to enter into service in 2025.

In others words, I reckon we will see an A350F doing first flight before the 777-9 (pax) is certified.

Oh come on the 350F does not need to start flight test 3 YEARS before EIS. 779 is an anomaly. Most flight tests even the 350 original EIS took like what 13 months?
 
Opus99
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Can we post that this information in the Boeing CEO New Plane thread? It's exhausting with all of the Boeing apologiest defending Boeing doing nothing in the narrow body segment until new fuels/electrification is available.... So we fly the 737 until 2050? I'm glad to see Airbus be brave and take on a well established encumbant in the freighter market.... It gets old hearing everyone defend Boeing's lack of courage/action in the narrow body segment where they were until recently the well established encumbant. Sorry for the diversion... As a fan of all things aeronautical... I'm glad to see one manufacturer grow a set.... Godspeed to the A350F.

It's hard to know where to post such stuff, since it seems pretty much every idea about what may happen in the future gets squashed because it doesn't meet nebulous goals stated by politicians and corporate executives that pretty much every technologist feels won't be met.

Of course low emissions is what everyone wants. In the US we refer to this as a "motherhood and apple pie" statement, two great things no one can object to, thus no politician or executive can go wrong by lavish public support for the concepts.

Yet there's the "inconvenient truth" that we the aviation industry is based on price points based on cheap fuel, and developing alternates is going to result in more costly aircraft and more costly fuel, things the airline executives will fight to avoid.

Thus we get "triangulation" between loud public "motherhood and apple pie" statements while we see the reality of the situation being discussed quietly in private.

The aerospace manufacturers are caught in the middle, knowing they can get gobs of government funds to go down the 'clean energy' path yet knowing it will be a challenge to ever deliver something with the performance and price targets the airlines are accustomed to. They have their own triangulation to perform.

If Airbus's private statements about needing traditional gas turbines through 2050 are true, it seems the manufacturers have the unfortunate problem of having to develop solutions for both traditional and 'clean' approaches, or have to gamble that one will pan out and the other will fail.

enzo011 wrote:
You seem to want to focus on this, I don't see a difference in what they are saying in public or in....public to policymakers. Unless you are saying there is a zero-emission engine/fuel now available that Airbus is not pursuing? Seems like they are saying they are moving towards this goal, but do not expect this to be a quick process where all aircraft will be replaced in a few short years. Those airlines that buy what is available in 2030 will still fly the aircraft going into the 2050's, right? Makes sense to me.

To me they seem to be saying they are moving towards laudable goals in public forums such as quarterly results announcements yet in low key surroundings like meetings with EU officials they are saying to expect more of the same through 2050 except for perhaps short regional flights.

IMO those short regional flights will probably need massive subsidies to ever happen because suitable aircraft will cost massive amounts of money to develop and certify and their fuel will be far more costly than traditional fuels. However we see the governments feel compelled to fund such development efforts and corporations are always glad to accept cash from the public coffers, regardless of feasibility.

As interesting as the CFM RISE announcement was, I have to think they quietly have a more traditional engine in development as a backup plan.

To answer the original post. IMO Airbus is not doing anything spectacular or grown breaking or needing a pair of balls to do. Boeing has just done such a shit job it makes Airbus look like they’re doing something crazy.

Airbus is also waiting for new engine tech to do a new program. They also said with their own mouth that it’s just about developing existing product lines this decade
 
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reidar76
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:39 pm

Opus99 wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
I think the 767F market can be replaced by 737/777 and A321/A330 P2F conversions. P2F is excellent for low density parcel freighters. The A350F will be long haul, high density freighter, competing in the 77F and 747F market.

Airbus launched the A350F at their 1H 2021 financial reporting meeting. I guess they wanted to launch the A350F before everything closes down for the summer holidays. Many people working in industry in the EU, start their holidays today/now. When people get back to work in September, I guess we will have an announcement naming launch operators and more details about the A350F. The first A350F must start test flying in about three years in order to enter into service in 2025.

In others words, I reckon we will see an A350F doing first flight before the 777-9 (pax) is certified.

Oh come on the 350F does not need to start flight test 3 YEARS before EIS. 779 is an anomaly. Most flight tests even the 350 original EIS took like what 13 months?


(?)

We're in July 2021. Three years from now we're in July 2024. First flight for the A350F could be earlier in 2024, in order to have 12 months of flight testing. EIS for the A350F in 2025, one year after the 777-9 (pax). I find this timetable reasonable.

The big question is: Will Airbus get certification for single pilot cruise for the A350F from day one? I think single pilot operations will be an important differentiator from a potential 77XF.
 
FlapOperator
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:45 pm

reidar76 wrote:

The big question is: Will Airbus get certification for single pilot cruise for the A350F from day one? I think single pilot operations will be an important differentiator from a potential 77XF.


I really have a hard time seeing this done in a 12-24 month time frame.

The "pilot shortage" argument is moot again. Its hard for me to the see the tech breakthroughs that would make another AF443 scenario different with a single pilot than it was with two. Additionally, much of this reduced work load in cruise is based off things like CPDLC that certainly are available, but for whatever reasons often aren't used.

Now, regulators can be convinced of a lot of things that aren't true.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:58 pm

FlapOperator wrote:
reidar76 wrote:

The big question is: Will Airbus get certification for single pilot cruise for the A350F from day one? I think single pilot operations will be an important differentiator from a potential 77XF.


I really have a hard time seeing this done in a 12-24 month time frame.

The "pilot shortage" argument is moot again. Its hard for me to the see the tech breakthroughs that would make another AF443 scenario different with a single pilot than it was with two. Additionally, much of this reduced work load in cruise is based off things like CPDLC that certainly are available, but for whatever reasons often aren't used.

Now, regulators can be convinced of a lot of things that aren't true.


The project with single pilot operations for A350 long haul cruise is in development, also with a timeline aimed for certification in 2025.

https://worldofaviation.com/2021/06/cat ... s-by-2025/
 
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:07 pm

reidar76 wrote:
FlapOperator wrote:
reidar76 wrote:

The big question is: Will Airbus get certification for single pilot cruise for the A350F from day one? I think single pilot operations will be an important differentiator from a potential 77XF.


I really have a hard time seeing this done in a 12-24 month time frame.

The "pilot shortage" argument is moot again. Its hard for me to the see the tech breakthroughs that would make another AF443 scenario different with a single pilot than it was with two. Additionally, much of this reduced work load in cruise is based off things like CPDLC that certainly are available, but for whatever reasons often aren't used.

Now, regulators can be convinced of a lot of things that aren't true.


The project with single pilot operations for A350 long haul cruise is in development, also with a timeline aimed for certification in 2025.

https://worldofaviation.com/2021/06/cat ... s-by-2025/


Even with the article, the very concept struggles with a couple of significant issues, starting with the very idea of a cockpit should be a "no alone zone."

The idea to me that Cathay is pursuing this at a time when its not suffering from crew shortages, and very questionable near-future for long range air transport in particular is somewhat questionable.

Now, I'm press release deep on this, but there is plenty of near contemporary data points to suggest that we aren't at this point from a Human Factors perspective alone.

Now, considering Cathay's management, I don't know if any level of data would dissuade them from a consensus decision, even when its really obviously bad.
 
Noshow
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 4:27 pm

Certifying this will be fun. Cockpits and the entire redundancy philosophy and failure scenarios are based on two pilots in the cockpit ready to react. This would not be what had been certified as a standard to be safe back then. Two qualified pilots in the cockpit and one having a short nap is okay as of today.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:00 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Airbus is also waiting for new engine tech to do a new program. They also said with their own mouth that it’s just about developing existing product lines this decade


Because their competitor has set the bar so low... they can indeed rest on their laurels for a bit.... but not too long...

Entering the large freighter market is courageous..... They haven't had a decent foothold there since the A300...
 
leoben
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:06 pm

zeke wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
But major cargo hubs like MEM and SDF do.


I don't know enough about SDF to comment on that, the majority of stands at MEM do not have direct terminal access, and I would think wherever the A300/MD11/777 park now would be able to accommodate an A330/A350. Again I think this is a red herring, they went from 108 ft on the 727 to 160+ ft for the 763F without the world stopping.


Regardless of how one defines"gate", (and all of FX's operation is completely separated from the passenger terminal by over a mile) - when I ask the bus driver in MEM to take us to "gate XYZ", there is no confusion.

At FX, and specifically at MEM, the A300, 767 and MD10/11's are mixed into the ramps w/o much discrimination (there are areas which only take 757s), but the 777s are relegated to just 5 "gates" with direct access to Victor taxiway. The other 7 are over on the ramp south of 9/27. That is for an operation with around 200 "gates" At no time do the 777s mix with the general population. B767F has a wingspan of 156', MD11 is 170' vs B777 and A350 are 212'. 777s cannot even maneuver into or out of most ramp areas. The talk about ramp space issues at the sorts is not hyperbole, it is very much a consideration. IND and EWR and OAK each have a handful of 777 capable "gates" - some of which require tow-in and are rarely utilized, AFW and GSO do not have any. As one would expect, ANC is setup to accommodate the 777s fairly effectively, 1/2 of the dozen or so "gates" are capable and there are a few overflow spots available. And while there are a small number of flights that do not touch the sorts, they are very small minority. Anything larger than the MD-11 is an issue. Other than as a replacement for what are effectively new 777s, or as a small specialized subfleet; A350F's at FX is implausible based on current system form. The particulars at 5X or DHL may be different but I believe the fundamentals are the same.

FX and 5X together operate 700+ mainline aircraft- 500+ of which are widebodies. How many WB freighters are there total in the world? Quick google search brought up a CargoFacts report from early 2018 - 1035 total . With a couple of intervening years of retirements, deliveries and conversions, lets call it 1200. Add DHL and AMZN contractors, and you have more than half of the total worldwide fleet. Yes, it is very US-centric to focus so much on FX/5X, but they are the 500lb gorillas. Seems fairly reasonable that integrating into Express operations would be somewhere on the list of considerations.

If one subtracts the number of operators who cannot or would not purchase a new large widebody aircraft, how many potential sales does that leave? Is there enough demand from the "straight" cargo operators for new tech and incremental efficiency improvements to make this viable? The A350F sounds like a desirable aircraft with great capabilities. But does the market exist for it to sell into - based on existing industry trends and realities? Maybe so - Airbus management sounds optimistic and they would know, but even with a low target for sales (as a derivative on main A350 production) it seems like a relatively tight window of opportunity.
 
Opus99
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:12 pm

reidar76 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
I think the 767F market can be replaced by 737/777 and A321/A330 P2F conversions. P2F is excellent for low density parcel freighters. The A350F will be long haul, high density freighter, competing in the 77F and 747F market.

Airbus launched the A350F at their 1H 2021 financial reporting meeting. I guess they wanted to launch the A350F before everything closes down for the summer holidays. Many people working in industry in the EU, start their holidays today/now. When people get back to work in September, I guess we will have an announcement naming launch operators and more details about the A350F. The first A350F must start test flying in about three years in order to enter into service in 2025.

In others words, I reckon we will see an A350F doing first flight before the 777-9 (pax) is certified.

Oh come on the 350F does not need to start flight test 3 YEARS before EIS. 779 is an anomaly. Most flight tests even the 350 original EIS took like what 13 months?


(?)

We're in July 2021. Three years from now we're in July 2024. First flight for the A350F could be earlier in 2024, in order to have 12 months of flight testing. EIS for the A350F in 2025, one year after the 777-9 (pax). I find this timetable reasonable.

The big question is: Will Airbus get certification for single pilot cruise for the A350F from day one? I think single pilot operations will be an important differentiator from a potential 77XF.

Oh sorry didn’t read your post well. My bad. I thought you said it will need to do flight testing for 3 years
 
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Revelation
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:26 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Entering the large freighter market is courageous..... They haven't had a decent foothold there since the A300...

To play devil's advocate, it sounds their design has converged more on the A350-1000 so they won't necessarily be spending a lot of money to develop the aircraft, and their finances can cope with the cost pretty readily. Who knows, maybe they will apply for launch aid. Something akin to the A330F's results would be disappointing but still totally affordable, and there's always the chance they do get big orders from the major operators and end up with a very successful product.
 
Noshow
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Jul 30, 2021 5:34 pm

What I don't understand: In this market at this time so many used but good aircraft are available to convert them to freighters. Especially A330s but 767s as well. All those retired by 787 and A350 customers. Why are airlines now considering these expensive high performance aircraft for cargo? Is this CORSIA related? https://www.global-aero.com/corsia-comi ... nitiative/
What will it mean for cargo pricing?

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