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Ertro
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:04 pm

Over the years there have been myriad of posts speculating some future Boeing product how it is going to be advantage to Boeing even if it sells at loss if it prohibits Airbus making money of selling their products and therefore Boeing should go ahead and build the plane even if it is not expected to make profit.

In the same spirit one could think whether this A350F project could be highly profitable even if zero A350F:s ever take off to the skies. This happens if the prospect of A350F makes Boeing calculate needing to sell 777XFs at lower price than previously forecasted and so the total expected profit from 777X line to be lowered enough to kill the prospects of whole 777X line. As a result Airbus is going to sell a lot more 350 passenger planes at a higher price than if it could if there is 777X to compete against. So overall zero A350Fs get ever built but the increased profits from 350 passenger planes makes the designing and preparing to produce A350Fs a highly profitable manouver.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:02 pm

Noshow wrote:
So where exactly has Airbus stated that they have launched it?


Airbus don't say that, the announcement was made as part of the delivery of results to shareholders. As such a decision is price sensitive for the stock, what shareholders and the greater market want to know is if the project has been approved by the board. As I posted earlier in the thread, back in 2010 they used the same style of wording for the A320NEO, they stated in the public announcements it had board approval. With the results announcement they stated the A350 freighter had board approval.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:49 am

zeke wrote:
Noshow wrote:
So where exactly has Airbus stated that they have launched it?


Airbus don't say that, the announcement was made as part of the delivery of results to shareholders. As such a decision is price sensitive for the stock, what shareholders and the greater market want to know is if the project has been approved by the board. As I posted earlier in the thread, back in 2010 they used the same style of wording for the A320NEO, they stated in the public announcements it had board approval. With the results announcement they stated the A350 freighter had board approval.

That's kind of confusing. I just provided direct quotes on the last page and repeated them below where Faury said the board actually gave approval in 2019, so if it was impactful to the stock price it should have been annonced then, no?

Revelation wrote:
Noshow wrote:
So where exactly has Airbus stated that they have launched it?

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2021/07/3 ... freighter/ gives a pretty good rendition of what Airbus CEO Faury said and did not say regarding the A350F.

“It is our ambition to continuously adapt and evolve our product in line with customer needs, as an example we did it with the A321XLR back in 2019. In that period and following positive customer feedback we obtained the board of directors approval for the freighter derivative of our well-established A350 platform,” Faury said. “Based on the efficiency of the A350, the freighter version is planned to deliver lower fuel burn compared to freighter versions of that size, for example around 20 percent less fuel burn compared to twins, 20 percent less compared to tri-jets, and 40 percent less compared to quads, four-engine planes.”

Faury said the A350 freighter will be compliant with the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) CO2 design certification emissions standard when it becomes effective in 2028. No other major design or performance details were released by Airbus about the A350 freighter during the call.

According to Faury, Airbus is still assessing market demand for the new A350 variant and has not yet arrived at a set production rate but will build its development into existing A350 assembly lines.

Since people like to parse words, I think it's interesting that he's just now telling us that the Airbus board granted approval to start working on a freighter back in 2019, and that he never used the word 'launch'.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 4:39 am

Revelation wrote:
That's kind of confusing. I just provided direct quotes on the last page and repeated them below where Faury said the board actually gave approval in 2019, so if it was impactful to the stock price it should have been annonced then, no?


He didn't say what you are suggesting, the A350 freighter was not approved in 2019.

A321XLR announcement June 2019
A350 Freighter announcement July 2021

Both events have announcements on the Airbus website, there is no announcement for the A350 freighter in 2019.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:19 am

Revelation wrote:
That's kind of confusing. I just provided direct quotes on the last page and repeated them below where Faury said the board actually gave approval in 2019, so if it was impactful to the stock price it should have been annonced then, no?

Revelation wrote:
Noshow wrote:
So where exactly has Airbus stated that they have launched it?

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2021/07/3 ... freighter/ gives a pretty good rendition of what Airbus CEO Faury said and did not say regarding the A350F.

“It is our ambition to continuously adapt and evolve our product in line with customer needs, as an example we did it with the A321XLR back in 2019. In that period and following positive customer feedback we obtained the board of directors approval for the freighter derivative of our well-established A350 platform,” Faury said. “Based on the efficiency of the A350, the freighter version is planned to deliver lower fuel burn compared to freighter versions of that size, for example around 20 percent less fuel burn compared to twins, 20 percent less compared to tri-jets, and 40 percent less compared to quads, four-engine planes.”

Faury said the A350 freighter will be compliant with the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) CO2 design certification emissions standard when it becomes effective in 2028. No other major design or performance details were released by Airbus about the A350 freighter during the call.

According to Faury, Airbus is still assessing market demand for the new A350 variant and has not yet arrived at a set production rate but will build its development into existing A350 assembly lines.

Since people like to parse words, I think it's interesting that he's just now telling us that the Airbus board granted approval to start working on a freighter back in 2019, and that he never used the word 'launch'.



He did not say they received board approval of the A350F in 2019. He is saying that in 2019 they introduced the A321XLR and since then they have had discussions with customers and obtained board approval for the freighter. I will be blunt, you are wrong in your interpretation.

As for the later quotes, he is talking about setting a production rate based off the demand they have. They cannot set a production rate yet as there isn't the confirmed orders yet. But like all products in the world, if they have orders they will build it. Seems obvious if they receive no orders, even with board approval, they will not build the aircraft.

I am really baffled what people are trying to argue here. Either it isn't a serious competitor, there needs to be certain amount of orders to launch, the announcement of the product is not a launch and now that they actually received board approval in 2019 already and has been sitting on it for 2 years.
 
Someone83
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:19 am

And it also seems like Volga-Dnepr is talking with Airbus about a possible A350 conversion program?

https://newsroom.aviator.aero/volga-dne ... ion-plans/

Volga-Dnepr and Airbus talk A350 conversion plans
 
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frigatebird
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:57 am

Someone83 wrote:
And it also seems like Volga-Dnepr is talking with Airbus about a possible A350 conversion program?

https://newsroom.aviator.aero/volga-dne ... ion-plans/

Volga-Dnepr and Airbus talk A350 conversion plans


The author of the article must be mistaken, I'm pretty sure Airbus is talking to Volga Dnepr about purpose built A350F's, not about conversions. I very much doubt Airbus is interested in launching an A350P2F conversion program. Yes, some A359s seem to be available but I'm sure they'll find new homes in their intended passenger role soon.

Having said that, Volga Dnepr seems a very good candidate for the A350F. There have been some legal issues between them and Boeing regarding the 777F order, and it seems their relationship is deeply troubled now. I wouldn't be surprised to see the order for 28 remaining 777F's cancelled (see https://simpleflying.com/volga-dnepr-first-boeing-777f/ ). Russian government wouldn't be unhappy about this at all I suppose. It would be a bit like the SU order for 22 787s, which was cancelled after they ordered the same amount of A350s.

So, anyone wants bet on a launch order for 30 A350Fs for Volga Dnepr?
 
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seahawk
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:20 am

The P2F is not a mistake. By 2026 the first 900s will reach the end of the lease deals.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:55 am

seahawk wrote:
The P2F is not a mistake. By 2026 the first 900s will reach the end of the lease deals.


Can you think of another aircraft type that had a P2F conversion started just because aircraft came off lease ?
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 11:10 am

I suggest a P2F conversion is more challenging engineering-wise than a new-build, which is one reason why the business case rests on cheap feedstock. Is there any? Will there be any by 2026?
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 1:11 pm

Has anyone speculated on possible cargo volume ?

I was thinking if they used the -900 forward section and -1000 rear section (symmetrical with 6 pallets in each hold) , the on the main deck 29 96x125x118 pallets

Forward Hold 6PAP/PMC or 18LD3(102m^3)
Rear Hold 6 PAP/PMC or 18LD3(102m^3)
Main deck 29 AP/PMC (557 m^3) (A350 upper lobe, i.e above floor is taller than lower lobe)

That would make it around the same volume as the 744F, and if they had a cargo density of around 9 lb/ft^3 would need a payload of around 109 tonnes.

Thoughts ?
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:16 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I suggest a P2F conversion is more challenging engineering-wise than a new-build, which is one reason why the business case rests on cheap feedstock. Is there any? Will there be any by 2026?


I agree. And before the pandemic, the A350 had the highest 2nd hand value of any aircraft type. It's probably true today as well.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:30 pm

morrisond wrote:
Yes generally when you launch some of those important things like payload at range might be one fo those things you announce.

Yes, it doesn't feel very "launchy" if we don't know payload/range nor anything about pricing and we have esteemed members of this site still guessing how many pallets or containers will fit on it.

morrisond wrote:
This is just advanced market research. As in "If we were to build an A350F - what would you like to see it be able to do?"

I'm not sure I'd go with advanced market research. It seems they have done conceptual definition and are working on requirement definition, and these tasks are usually done by both marketing and engineering resources.

zeke wrote:
He didn't say what you are suggesting, the A350 freighter was not approved in 2019.

enzo011 wrote:
He did not say they received board approval of the A350F in 2019. He is saying that in 2019 they introduced the A321XLR and since then they have had discussions with customers and obtained board approval for the freighter. I will be blunt, you are wrong in your interpretation.

What do you suggest "In that period" means then?

zeke wrote:
A321XLR announcement June 2019
A350 Freighter announcement July 2021

Both events have announcements on the Airbus website, there is no announcement for the A350 freighter in 2019.

I did a search for an announcement of the A350 freighter on the Airbus website and found none, please provide a link,

enzo011 wrote:
I am really baffled what people are trying to argue here. Either it isn't a serious competitor, there needs to be certain amount of orders to launch, the announcement of the product is not a launch and now that they actually received board approval in 2019 already and has been sitting on it for 2 years.

This is a discussion forum rather than an argument forum, so I'm discussing not arguing.

Personally I'm just trying to make sense of the state of affairs.

We have the media referring to something as a launch where there is no orders, and Airbus not pushing back on that so tacitly approving it and perhaps even encouraging it behind the scenes.

An optimist would say that means they are confident and have the orders in hand, a pessimist would say they are desperate and are trying to drum up orders by manufacturing drama and a sense of momentum, I'm not sure which stance one should take.

The question of who will support this program by ordering it has been the key question since Page 1 of this thread going back four months now, and the recent statements by Faury do nothing to resolve the question.

Maybe I'm a traditionalist, but IMO no orders means no program, so we don't have a program till we have orders.

Don't people find it strange that we knew more about who was interested in ordering NMA at this phase of its life than we know about A350F?

Don't people find it strange that the only CEO support we've heard of is from AAB and at the same time he also gives support to the competitor's product?
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:50 pm

First result from a search board approval a350 freighter site:www.airbus.com

“Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative”

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html dated 29-jul-2021
 
Flying-Tiger
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:11 pm

How´s the feeling here, is Amazon Air (resp. one or more of its operators) a likely customer for the A350F, maybe even as a large scale launch customer?
 
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Polot
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:59 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
How´s the feeling here, is Amazon Air (resp. one or more of its operators) a likely customer for the A350F, maybe even as a large scale launch customer?

I would be surprised, unless they really want the range now. I see converted A333s or 77Ws as more likely when they decide to go larger than the 763.
 
HPRamper
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 4:19 pm

Flying-Tiger wrote:
How´s the feeling here, is Amazon Air (resp. one or more of its operators) a likely customer for the A350F, maybe even as a large scale launch customer?

I think if Amazon is going to be the launch customer for something new - and they have not ordered any "new" aircraft thus far - it will be for the 764. Amazon international is growing but at a much slower pace than domestic which is gangbusters and not slowing down. I see a need for more short-range domestic capacity, of course with the capability for transoceanic routes, with fleet commonality to boot.....I don't think Amazon needs a plane that will fly CVG-DXB.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 4:24 pm

zeke wrote:
First result from a search board approval a350 freighter site:www.airbus.com

“Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative”

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html dated 29-jul-2021


And a quote from that Airbus press release:
"we are enhancing our product line with an A350 freighter derivative, responding to customer feedback for increased competition and efficiency in this market segment".

The press conference where more details about the freighter, and disclosure of launch customers, comes later.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 5:28 pm

I actually believe aviation is becoming gradually less politically sensitive, with a few exceptions.

But do you guys and gals believe there will be some political pressure / lobbying towards European cargo operators like Cargolux and DHL to purchase the A350F?

And if so, do you believe there's a chance either will order it?
 
Okcflyer
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 5:44 pm

I get the impression that Airbus has announced their intent to build a A350F, but they haven’t yet decided what exactly that means: do they target the mid-level market with a cheaper A359-based option? Do invest an extra couple Billion and create a highly-optimized model of a new length been 900 and 1000? Is the payback on that incremental investment wise? Do they just create a A35K based freighter at max possible weight easily obtainable and call it’s day? (Effectively giving up some range or a couple ton of payload).

I don’t think they’ve yet decided what their approach will be, and I imagine they have customer feedback supporting each of the options. Perhaps they launch a A359 p2f partnership to cover the low spec requirements and compete with 77W p2f, and launch a 950F or 1000F to compete on the max payload/range front?

Regardless, I believe firmly that if the plans we’re concrete, far more information would have leaked than what has so far. As such, I believe they’re still trying to sort out what their best play is.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:07 pm

Their play is opportunity. They have the product why not use it. It's a low cost investment from Airbus.

It's also an attack on a segment pretty much dominated by Boeing. Why isn't Boeing making noise on a 787F......would be quite a counter, no??
 
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Polot
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:19 pm

Okcflyer wrote:

I don’t think they’ve yet decided what their approach will be, and I imagine they have customer feedback supporting each of the options. Perhaps they launch a A359 p2f partnership to cover the low spec requirements and compete with 77W p2f, and launch a 950F or 1000F to compete on the max payload/range front?

There is not enough potential A359 feedstock at the moment to make that viable. The oldest A359 is only ~6 years old. Airlines are going to be dumping their aging A330s and 777Ws long before A359s.
 
texl1649
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:52 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Their play is opportunity. They have the product why not use it. It's a low cost investment from Airbus.

It's also an attack on a segment pretty much dominated by Boeing. Why isn't Boeing making noise on a 787F......would be quite a counter, no??


IF Boeing gets thru 77X and NMA matters, a 788F might make sense, IF they can actually do it on a ‘second generation’ 788 frame that is really common with the other two members of the family.

The theory though is that they don’t make any real money on 788’s anyway, which is why they’re not actively selling any really at this point. The other question is if any such NMA/767 class replacement will be built with…a freighter specifically in mind. If so, it would probably be built/designed to be produced at a lower price point than the 788, and the range of the 788 isn’t really needed anyway for the cargo market the 767 has served. Building one with plans for a cargo door from the get go would also be an advantage (and as well a possible tanker/cargo derivative.).

So ultimately, no Boeing 767F successor is likely before the 2030’s, as far as public knowledge is concerned anyway. Any big new project from Boeing on this (787 or NMA based) would have at least a 5-7 year gestation/development phase, and if it’s a new model entirely it will be more like 8-12 years for the cargo version, likely.
 
2175301
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:43 pm

reidar76 wrote:
zeke wrote:
First result from a search board approval a350 freighter site:www.airbus.com

“Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative”

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html dated 29-jul-2021


And a quote from that Airbus press release:
"we are enhancing our product line with an A350 freighter derivative, responding to customer feedback for increased competition and efficiency in this market segment".

The press conference where more details about the freighter, and disclosure of launch customers, comes later.



I've been on this forum for a while now... and as far as I can see that in all previous cases a "Launch" was associated with announced orders and reasonable details of the aircraft.

Even Boom has announced 35 orders/options for their Supersonic Passenger Aircraft (although I believe the dates of delivery and cost must be somewhat flexible at this time)..

Airbus has not done that. Why are people treating Airbus differently than other companies in this respect?

I would like to point out that the plan was for Boeing to get Board Approval to "Offer" the NMA in late spring or early summer 2019, and that "Launch" would only occur if they got enough order commitments. The 737Max issues stopped the NMA from progressing at the time.

All I see is an authorization to develop and offer the A350F. I see not one shred of evidence for a "Launch" by historical standards.

Please provide references for other "launched" aircraft in the last several decades that did not have orders associated with the launch as evidence that I'm wrong.

Have a great day,
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
zeke wrote:
A321XLR announcement June 2019
A350 Freighter announcement July 2021

Both events have announcements on the Airbus website, there is no announcement for the A350 freighter in 2019.

I did a search for an announcement of the A350 freighter on the Airbus website and found none, please provide a link,

zeke wrote:
First result from a search board approval a350 freighter site:www.airbus.com

“Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative”

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html dated 29-jul-2021

Hmm, title of "Airbus reports Half-Year (H1) 2021 results" with sub-title "Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative" and the word freighter appearing exactly once in the rest of the text is not exactly a "A350 Freighter announcement", but if that's how you roll, so be it. Most of us don't think of a one line statement of "approval" in a quarterly financial statement as an "announcement", I think it is safe to say. If Airbus really want to "announce" something they have a full "newsroom" page dedicated to the task ( ref: https://www.airbus.com/us/en/newsroom.html ). Plenty of "announcements" there about airplanes, helicopters and simulators being sold, services contracts being signed, etc. Not a word about A350 freighters though.
 
majano
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:10 pm

2175301 wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
zeke wrote:
First result from a search board approval a350 freighter site:www.airbus.com

“Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative”

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html dated 29-jul-2021


And a quote from that Airbus press release:
"we are enhancing our product line with an A350 freighter derivative, responding to customer feedback for increased competition and efficiency in this market segment".

The press conference where more details about the freighter, and disclosure of launch customers, comes later.



I've been on this forum for a while now... and as far as I can see that in all previous cases a "Launch" was associated with announced orders and reasonable details of the aircraft.

Even Boom has announced 35 orders/options for their Supersonic Passenger Aircraft (although I believe the dates of delivery and cost must be somewhat flexible at this time)..

Airbus has not done that. Why are people treating Airbus differently than other companies in this respect?

I would like to point out that the plan was for Boeing to get Board Approval to "Offer" the NMA in late spring or early summer 2019, and that "Launch" would only occur if they got enough order commitments. The 737Max issues stopped the NMA from progressing at the time.

All I see is an authorization to develop and offer the A350F. I see not one shred of evidence for a "Launch" by historical standards.

Please provide references for other "launched" aircraft in the last several decades that did not have orders associated with the launch as evidence that I'm wrong.

Have a great day,

User Zeke provided a recent and very successful example a few pages back. Perhaps you didn't see it or you don't think it counts for some reason?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:16 pm

reidar76 wrote:
zeke wrote:
First result from a search board approval a350 freighter site:www.airbus.com

“Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative”

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html dated 29-jul-2021


And a quote from that Airbus press release:
"we are enhancing our product line with an A350 freighter derivative, responding to customer feedback for increased competition and efficiency in this market segment".

The press conference where more details about the freighter, and disclosure of launch customers, comes later.

Yes, that is the press conference that I quoted Faury as saying Airbus's board gave approval to develop an A350 freighter "in that period" of 2019 ( ref: post #1054 above ).

majano wrote:
User Zeke provided a recent and very successful example a few pages back. Perhaps you didn't see it or you don't think it counts for some reason?

Perhaps you can help the readers by providing the post number and/or a link to the post? See above for an example of me doing so.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:23 pm

Might we be splitting hairs? How about we all agree that Airbus has recieved authority to offer a freighter based on the A350. It will be awesome and should arrive before it's nearest ICAO CO2 emissions standard compliant competitor, the un-launched 778F.

They will publish an official launch announcement when they have a launch customer.

Meantime, we can all enjoy what we enjoy as aviation enthusiast..... wildly guessing about it's specifications, capabilities, market suitability.... fun stuff.... not these semantics over authority to offer, development study, program launch... I mean.... we are all pretty sure it's going to happen, no? Y'all are taking a fun thread and kind of spoiling it for those of us that are excited about planes.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
Revelation wrote:
zeke wrote:
A321XLR announcement June 2019
A350 Freighter announcement July 2021

Both events have announcements on the Airbus website, there is no announcement for the A350 freighter in 2019.

I did a search for an announcement of the A350 freighter on the Airbus website and found none, please provide a link,

zeke wrote:
First result from a search board approval a350 freighter site:www.airbus.com

“Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative”

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html dated 29-jul-2021

Hmm, title of "Airbus reports Half-Year (H1) 2021 results" with sub-title "Board of Directors approval for A350 freighter derivative" and the word freighter appearing exactly once in the rest of the text is not exactly a "A350 Freighter announcement", but if that's how you roll, so be it. Most of us don't think of a one line statement of "approval" in a quarterly financial statement as an "announcement", I think it is safe to say. If Airbus really want to "announce" something they have a full "newsroom" page dedicated to the task ( ref: https://www.airbus.com/us/en/newsroom.html ). Plenty of "announcements" there about airplanes, helicopters and simulators being sold, services contracts being signed, etc. Not a word about A350 freighters though.


I thought we had all kinda come to a consensus earlier in the thread that this is an ATO rather than a full on commitment to produce a freighter. I personally don’t really care or think it matters if we call it a launch or “Kevin”. We now know that Airbus is working on one and actively looking for customers.

On any other enthusiast forum this would be a good thing, as it gives us lots of things to speculate about and discuss; exact specification, range possible customers etc. But as this is Anet, we debate linguistics instead.
 
majano
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 8:46 pm

zeke wrote:


I don't agree, I think they have already done their trade studies and know what they want to build, next is detail design and then production while at the same time sending the sales teams out to industry.

Cast you mind back to 2010 "Today’s A320neo announcement follows the approval given by the Board of Directors of EADS, Airbus’ shareholder company." from https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... amily.html

2021 "Furthermore and following Board approval, we are enhancing our product line with an A350 freighter derivative, responding to customer feedback for increased competition and efficiency in this market segment." from https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html
 
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Grizzly410
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:10 pm

Okcflyer wrote:
I get the impression that Airbus has announced their intent to build a A350F, but they haven’t yet decided what exactly that means: do they target the mid-level market with a cheaper A359-based option? Do invest an extra couple Billion and create a highly-optimized model of a new length been 900 and 1000? Is the payback on that incremental investment wise? Do they just create a A35K based freighter at max possible weight easily obtainable and call it’s day? (Effectively giving up some range or a couple ton of payload).

I don’t think they’ve yet decided what their approach will be, and I imagine they have customer feedback supporting each of the options. Perhaps they launch a A359 p2f partnership to cover the low spec requirements and compete with 77W p2f, and launch a 950F or 1000F to compete on the max payload/range front?

Regardless, I believe firmly that if the plans we’re concrete, far more information would have leaked than what has so far. As such, I believe they’re still trying to sort out what their best play is.


I'd think the opposite, totally.
To get approval from board the A350 program team must have presented market projections using feedback they got from sale department discution with freight operators. Based on that exposed what would be their variant, and an estimate cost to design, certify and build it.

In short, I think the concept can ben frozen in no time. Small technical choice change to satisfy an healthy launch customer should still be available though

The natural barrier of introducing a new product in a modest market will always remain but A350F seem to be such a modest bet to expand A350 presence in the marketplace to be worth the price taking it.
Very speculative but I really liked the idea floated in previous pages of this thread about Airbus using A350F to push the single pilot cruise operations. The platform is superb to develop this, and being participant in establishing the regulatory environment to make it happen gives a natural edge as it could be directly transposable to passengers A350 when the regulator establishes how operations are safe.
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 9:19 pm

zeke wrote:
Has anyone speculated on possible cargo volume ?

I was thinking if they used the -900 forward section and -1000 rear section (symmetrical with 6 pallets in each hold) , the on the main deck 29 96x125x118 pallets

Forward Hold 6PAP/PMC or 18LD3(102m^3)
Rear Hold 6 PAP/PMC or 18LD3(102m^3)
Main deck 29 AP/PMC (557 m^3) (A350 upper lobe, i.e above floor is taller than lower lobe)

That would make it around the same volume as the 744F, and if they had a cargo density of around 9 lb/ft^3 would need a payload of around 109 tonnes.

Thoughts ?


I think they would have to Aim for potential 778F capacity as a minimum. An 777F in the belly takes 32 LD3's(18 Front 14 AFT). An 778 is 6M longer which should allow 8 more LD3's - call it 22 front and 18 rear for a total of 40.

That also means an 778F should be able to take 31 Pallets up top.

So the size you are suggesting for A350F seems a little small. Can't an A359 already take 36 LD3's in the belly anyways?

An 359 is 67M a 3M stretch would take you probably to the same 31 Pallets up top and 40 LD3's down below - right between A359/A351.

The big problem is density- we are talking about 15% more volume up top and about 25% down below - even if an 70M A350F can lift 105T - which could be difficult without a lot of beefing up - that is about 20% less dense than an 777F. At 95T that is 30% less dense. That is a lot and why I think MTOW and possibly thrust has to grow for it to garner a lot of orders.
 
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:26 pm

morrisond wrote:
I think they would have to Aim for potential 778F capacity as a minimum.


If they can beat 77F in capacity, but do so at a significant trip savings while meeting all ICAO CO2 regs, isn't that compelling enough? Do they really need to push the envelope to pursue a not yet in existence aircraft? Even Boeing doesn't have a freighter with a '778F' capacity at the moment (cuz a 778F is presently a paper airplane) and won't for probably 5+ more years.
 
LDRA
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:49 am

Airbus should go for a straight forward A350-1000F. Package freight is where growth is at.
It also nicely differentiates from 777-200F with additional cargo volumn. 777-200F size market is currently quite saturated. Boeing has been dumping into the market to fill 778 production line gap
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:54 am

In this post I am discussing a A350F that is between the length of the -900 and -1000.

morrisond wrote:
I think they would have to Aim for potential 778F capacity as a minimum. An 777F in the belly takes 32 LD3's(18 Front 14 AFT). An 778 is 6M longer which should allow 8 more LD3's - call it 22 front and 18 rear for a total of 40.


I think the 778F like the 777WP2F will have lower payload than the 77F due to the dead weight in the fuselage nad in the case of the 778F also heavier engines.

The 778 is already considerably more expensive on list prices compared to the-1000, I would expect a A350F that is between the size of the -900 and -1000 to sit price wise between those models. The volume I calculated is almost identical to the 744F/744ERF. It is more than the 77F. That would make it on cost per lb or ft^3 the cheapest airframe available, it would beat the 778F.

morrisond wrote:
That also means an 778F should be able to take 31 Pallets up top.


The A350 has a common cross section from the front to rear door, the 777 has some taper at the front and rear meaning the pallets in the very front and very rear are slightly smaller.

morrisond wrote:
So the size you are suggesting for A350F seems a little small. Can't an A359 already take 36 LD3's in the belly anyways?


I was only looking at pallets under floor as that is more common for freighter flights, the configuration I looked at would be 41 LD3s.

morrisond wrote:
The big problem is density- we are talking about 15% more volume up top and about 25% down below - even if an 70M A350F can lift 105T - which could be difficult without a lot of beefing up - that is about 20% less dense than an 777F. At 95T that is 30% less dense. That is a lot and why I think MTOW and possibly thrust has to grow for it to garner a lot of orders.


Generally the trends on MZFW on a freighter model would be 10% greater than the passenger model aircraft with a reduced life cycle. That would mean the A350F MZFW would be around 245 tonnes. I would expect the OEW to be around 142 tones (i.e. slightly below the 77F).

Package freighters would have a density of around 7 lb/ft^3, so around 87 tonnes payload in this configuration and a range to do HKG-MEM. The 744/744ERF would have a density of 8.5 lb/ft^3 for a longer sector like HKG-ANC, that would be more like 106 tonnes.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 3:00 am

Revelation wrote:
Most of us don't think of a one line statement of "approval" in a quarterly financial statement as an "announcement", I think it is safe to say. If Airbus really want to "announce" something they have a full "newsroom" page dedicated to the task


You are wrong on what he said and how announcements are made to the market. Board approval means a budget approval which is market sensitive information.

This is a CNBC interview on the same day, you can see for yourself his own words.

“We just got approval from the Airbus Board of Directors to move forward with the development of the freighter version of the A350”

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/29/a ... faury.html

Dated THU, JUL 29 20217:45 AM EDT not 2019 as you falsely keep claiming. 2019 was in reference to the A321XLR which was announced around June/July 2019.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:18 am

In terms of business case, bear in mind that NOT developing new models does not save Airbus all the cost of developing them. Employment costs are not entirely "variable", especially if there is a strategic need to retain rare skills. And there are fixed costs that are best spread across multiple projects.

So the cost of doing something in the business case will not be compared with a £0 cost of doing nothing.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:18 am

Leehamnews.com today:
- a decision from Boeing whether to move forward with a potential 777XF is imminent
- the 777XF would be larger than the A350F
- difficult for 777XF to equal or beat the A350F on operating costs

https://leehamnews.com/2021/08/05/the-a ... us-777-xf/
 
Opus99
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:49 am

reidar76 wrote:
Leehamnews.com today:
- a decision from Boeing whether to move forward with a potential 777XF is imminent
- the 777XF would be larger than the A350F
- difficult for 777XF to equal or beat the A350F on operating costs

https://leehamnews.com/2021/08/05/the-a ... us-777-xf/

Like I say. If I want to say something complete it.

“The 777-XF would take about 11% more cargo than the A350F and would be a suitable replacement for the 777F and the 748-8F.
On a tonne-mile COC basis, the differences in operating costs are within the margin of error for analysis at this prospective stage of both programs.”

Even though they say A350F will burn about 10.8% less fuel
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:54 am

zeke wrote:
In this post I am discussing a A350F that is between the length of the -900 and -1000.

morrisond wrote:
I think they would have to Aim for potential 778F capacity as a minimum. An 777F in the belly takes 32 LD3's(18 Front 14 AFT). An 778 is 6M longer which should allow 8 more LD3's - call it 22 front and 18 rear for a total of 40.


I think the 778F like the 777WP2F will have lower payload than the 77F due to the dead weight in the fuselage nad in the case of the 778F also heavier engines.

The 778 is already considerably more expensive on list prices compared to the-1000, I would expect a A350F that is between the size of the -900 and -1000 to sit price wise between those models. The volume I calculated is almost identical to the 744F/744ERF. It is more than the 77F. That would make it on cost per lb or ft^3 the cheapest airframe available, it would beat the 778F.

morrisond wrote:
That also means an 778F should be able to take 31 Pallets up top.


The A350 has a common cross section from the front to rear door, the 777 has some taper at the front and rear meaning the pallets in the very front and very rear are slightly smaller.

morrisond wrote:
So the size you are suggesting for A350F seems a little small. Can't an A359 already take 36 LD3's in the belly anyways?


I was only looking at pallets under floor as that is more common for freighter flights, the configuration I looked at would be 41 LD3s.

morrisond wrote:
The big problem is density- we are talking about 15% more volume up top and about 25% down below - even if an 70M A350F can lift 105T - which could be difficult without a lot of beefing up - that is about 20% less dense than an 777F. At 95T that is 30% less dense. That is a lot and why I think MTOW and possibly thrust has to grow for it to garner a lot of orders.


Generally the trends on MZFW on a freighter model would be 10% greater than the passenger model aircraft with a reduced life cycle. That would mean the A350F MZFW would be around 245 tonnes. I would expect the OEW to be around 142 tones (i.e. slightly below the 77F).

Package freighters would have a density of around 7 lb/ft^3, so around 87 tonnes payload in this configuration and a range to do HKG-MEM. The 744/744ERF would have a density of 8.5 lb/ft^3 for a longer sector like HKG-ANC, that would be more like 106 tonnes.


I was guessing your A350F was longer than an 359, yet you wrote up top that your configuration takes 36 LD3's and not 41 and when you look at the A350 ACAP and take the rear cargo hold of the A359 and front Cargo Hold of the A359 you get 40. So are you making it longer than 70M?

It was confusing and not clear. 103T of lift and your weights seem about right but it still makes it about 20% less dense than an 777F.

It keeps me coming back to the obvious conclusion. A350F/778F Capabilities have to grow or the 777W conversion lines will be busy for a long time, and Operators who need more density will be ordering 777F up to the last second.

There is no obvious market for an A350F or 778F with these capabilities and low densities.
 
Strato2
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:06 pm

I predict there will become some new strict emission rules in the near future severely hampering conversion of old frames like 777-300ER and favouring latest tech.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:37 pm

Opus99 wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
Leehamnews.com today:
- a decision from Boeing whether to move forward with a potential 777XF is imminent
- the 777XF would be larger than the A350F
- difficult for 777XF to equal or beat the A350F on operating costs

https://leehamnews.com/2021/08/05/the-a ... us-777-xf/

Like I say. If I want to say something complete it.

“The 777-XF would take about 11% more cargo than the A350F and would be a suitable replacement for the 777F and the 748-8F.
On a tonne-mile COC basis, the differences in operating costs are within the margin of error for analysis at this prospective stage of both programs.”

Even though they say A350F will burn about 10.8% less fuel

Seems the "mutually assured destruction" scenario is upon us with two giants fighting over a small market, although there still is the chance that one or the other will "fizzle" and at best serve to drag down profits for the other while suffering no profit for themselves.

Strato2 wrote:
I predict there will become some new strict emission rules in the near future severely hampering conversion of old frames like 777-300ER and favouring latest tech.

Working against that, we have the financiers who still hold paper on older frames like 77W and would like there to be an after-market for them, along with the conversion houses, MROs, airframers and engine firms that make good money off aging frames. Will be interesting to see where things end up. Meanwhile, we still have a few DC-8Fs doing cargo runs, not to mention lots of 744Fs and MD-11s.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:01 pm

morrisond wrote:
I was guessing your A350F was longer than an 359, yet you wrote up top that your configuration takes 36 LD3's and not 41 and when you look at the A350 ACAP and take the rear cargo hold of the A359 and front Cargo Hold of the A359 you get 40.


My mistake, I looked up the number of pallets correctly however where 6 pallets fit, it should then be good for 20 LD3s. The A350 c0uld fit an additional LD3 into the bulk, all that separates the bulk to the rear hold is a net. https://photolibrary.heathrow.com/previ ... +to+Doha...

morrisond wrote:
20% less dense than an 777F.


In practice that is not really a limit, freighters tend to cube out these days before reaching maximum weight.

morrisond wrote:
or the 777W conversion lines will be busy for a long time


It would be pretty inefficient compared to the A350, the A350 would be 20-25% less block fuel, the 777WP2F does not offer 25% more.

morrisond wrote:
Operators who need more density will be ordering 777F up to the last second


Like who ?

morrisond wrote:
There is no obvious market for an A350F or 778F with these capabilities and low densities.


That is where most of the air freight is sitting now. Something that carries about half the same volume as a 744F and yet buns like half the fuel, I can see that getting traction.
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:24 pm

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I was guessing your A350F was longer than an 359, yet you wrote up top that your configuration takes 36 LD3's and not 41 and when you look at the A350 ACAP and take the rear cargo hold of the A359 and front Cargo Hold of the A359 you get 40.


My mistake, I looked up the number of pallets correctly however where 6 pallets fit, it should then be good for 20 LD3s. The A350 c0uld fit an additional LD3 into the bulk, all that separates the bulk to the rear hold is a net. https://photolibrary.heathrow.com/previ ... +to+Doha...

morrisond wrote:
20% less dense than an 777F.


In practice that is not really a limit, freighters tend to cube out these days before reaching maximum weight.

morrisond wrote:
or the 777W conversion lines will be busy for a long time


It would be pretty inefficient compared to the A350, the A350 would be 20-25% less block fuel, the 777WP2F does not offer 25% more.

morrisond wrote:
Operators who need more density will be ordering 777F up to the last second


Like who ?

morrisond wrote:
There is no obvious market for an A350F or 778F with these capabilities and low densities.


That is where most of the air freight is sitting now. Something that carries about half the same volume as a 744F and yet buns like half the fuel, I can see that getting traction.


We will see. We are told time and time again that fuel cost is not that big an issue for Freighters. Capital cost is the big Monkey and that is where the 777ERSF comes in.

A350F or 778XF won't be cheap.

You would probably be able to buy and convert at least 2 777ERSF's for the price of one new A350F or 778XF and those also have to compete with end of line 777F.
 
mig17
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:40 pm

morrisond wrote:
zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I was guessing your A350F was longer than an 359, yet you wrote up top that your configuration takes 36 LD3's and not 41 and when you look at the A350 ACAP and take the rear cargo hold of the A359 and front Cargo Hold of the A359 you get 40.


My mistake, I looked up the number of pallets correctly however where 6 pallets fit, it should then be good for 20 LD3s. The A350 c0uld fit an additional LD3 into the bulk, all that separates the bulk to the rear hold is a net. https://photolibrary.heathrow.com/previ ... +to+Doha...

morrisond wrote:
20% less dense than an 777F.


In practice that is not really a limit, freighters tend to cube out these days before reaching maximum weight.

morrisond wrote:
or the 777W conversion lines will be busy for a long time


It would be pretty inefficient compared to the A350, the A350 would be 20-25% less block fuel, the 777WP2F does not offer 25% more.

morrisond wrote:
Operators who need more density will be ordering 777F up to the last second


Like who ?

morrisond wrote:
There is no obvious market for an A350F or 778F with these capabilities and low densities.


That is where most of the air freight is sitting now. Something that carries about half the same volume as a 744F and yet buns like half the fuel, I can see that getting traction.


We will see. We are told time and time again that fuel cost is not that big an issue for Freighters. Capital cost is the big Monkey and that is where the 777ERSF comes in.

A350F or 778XF won't be cheap.

You would probably be able to buy and convert at least 2 777ERSF's for the price of one new A350F or 778XF and those also have to compete with end of line 777F.

A brand new A350F or 778XF will have what, twice more cycles remaining ? So the freighters airline will also spread their investment on longer period with new planes.
 
Rekoff
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 05, 2021 10:58 pm

mig17 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
zeke wrote:

My mistake, I looked up the number of pallets correctly however where 6 pallets fit, it should then be good for 20 LD3s. The A350 c0uld fit an additional LD3 into the bulk, all that separates the bulk to the rear hold is a net. https://photolibrary.heathrow.com/previ ... +to+Doha...



In practice that is not really a limit, freighters tend to cube out these days before reaching maximum weight.



It would be pretty inefficient compared to the A350, the A350 would be 20-25% less block fuel, the 777WP2F does not offer 25% more.



Like who ?



That is where most of the air freight is sitting now. Something that carries about half the same volume as a 744F and yet buns like half the fuel, I can see that getting traction.


We will see. We are told time and time again that fuel cost is not that big an issue for Freighters. Capital cost is the big Monkey and that is where the 777ERSF comes in.

A350F or 778XF won't be cheap.

You would probably be able to buy and convert at least 2 777ERSF's for the price of one new A350F or 778XF and those also have to compete with end of line 777F.

A brand new A350F or 778XF will have what, twice more cycles remaining ? So the freighters airline will also spread their investment on longer period with new planes.


And much lower fuel burn for similar performance which is the actual value proposition that most likely is what makes carriers interested in the A350F. Why would you be interested if there is no value proposition compared to the current alternatives? Unless forum members want to claim there is no genuine interest from carriers despite what multiple Airbus executives have stated on the record?
 
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flee
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 06, 2021 5:24 am

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
or the 777W conversion lines will be busy for a long time

It would be pretty inefficient compared to the A350, the A350 would be 20-25% less block fuel, the 777WP2F does not offer 25% more.

morrisond wrote:
Operators who need more density will be ordering 777F up to the last second

Like who ?

morrisond wrote:
There is no obvious market for an A350F or 778F with these capabilities and low densities.

That is where most of the air freight is sitting now. Something that carries about half the same volume as a 744F and yet buns like half the fuel, I can see that getting traction.

These days, a lot of the heavy cargo goes by sea too - only bulky off sized cargo need heavy lifters like the An-124/225. The recent An-225 mission to bring back helicopters from Afghanistan to UK carried only about 30+ tonnes of cargo - however they were bulky!

With regards to P2F aircraft, the primary motivation for getting these is the much lower purchase price compared to factory built new aircraft. Even though they burn more fuel, it will take a long time before the cost difference is recovered. Some cargo airlines also do not have plans to utilise the P2F aircraft as long as a new build - the lower CAPEX is easier to finance.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 06, 2021 5:40 am

morrisond wrote:
We will see. We are told time and time again that fuel cost is not that big an issue for Freighters. Capital cost is the big Monkey and that is where the 777ERSF comes in.

A350F or 778XF won't be cheap.

You would probably be able to buy and convert at least 2 777ERSF's for the price of one new A350F or 778XF and those also have to compete with end of line 777F.


I think you are in the correct ballpark in that 2x77WP2F aircraft for the price of one A350F, I think the 778F would be around 20% more expensive than a A350F.

I did some back of the envelope numbers on purchase price and operating costs, for the fist 7 years the 77WP2F would have the lowest total cost (purchase cost plus operating cost) of the 3, thereafter the A350F would have the lowest total cost. The numbers I have done would suggest that over a 15 year period the 778F would not achieve lower total cost than a 77WP2F (sensitivity analysis suggest fuel would need to be on average to be 75% higher than todays price to match the 777WP2F total cost over 15 years). I was basing this on an average utilization of 14 hrs a day, 340 days a year.

Everything above is opinion, it is based upon my best guess.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 06, 2021 7:41 am

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
We will see. We are told time and time again that fuel cost is not that big an issue for Freighters. Capital cost is the big Monkey and that is where the 777ERSF comes in.

A350F or 778XF won't be cheap.

You would probably be able to buy and convert at least 2 777ERSF's for the price of one new A350F or 778XF and those also have to compete with end of line 777F.


I think you are in the correct ballpark in that 2x77WP2F aircraft for the price of one A350F, I think the 778F would be around 20% more expensive than a A350F.

I did some back of the envelope numbers on purchase price and operating costs, for the fist 7 years the 77WP2F would have the lowest total cost (purchase cost plus operating cost) of the 3, thereafter the A350F would have the lowest total cost. The numbers I have done would suggest that over a 15 year period the 778F would not achieve lower total cost than a 77WP2F (sensitivity analysis suggest fuel would need to be on average to be 75% higher than todays price to match the 777WP2F total cost over 15 years). I was basing this on an average utilization of 14 hrs a day, 340 days a year.

Everything above is opinion, it is based upon my best guess.


And I am guessing this is with current day gas prices. I am not sure how things will evolve in Asia and US, but in Europe the cry for taxing jet fuel is becoming stronger and stronger. So, the timeline of 7 years will probably shift towards 4-5 with more expensive jet fuel.
 
Noshow
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 06, 2021 8:10 am

If I'd be Boeing I'd wait with my 777XF launch until the market has digested all those cheapo 777-300ER ready for freighter conversion. They will keep the A350F under control as well.
And then mount the next engine generation or PIP on the 777XF, CORSIA compliant, and use this engine for the passenger 9Xneo as well.

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