He says the "target launch customers" come from the A350 "installed base of combination carriers" i.e. pax + freight operators not integrators such as FX, 5X, Amazon, etc. How do we get 50 launch orders from the A350 "installed base of combination carriers"?
Hmm, lets see
SQ for half dozen
CI for up to two dozen
OZ/KE for up to a dozen
CX for some number
Any of the main 3 Chinese carriers for some number
thats just in the Far East
LH for some number
they don't even need QR
getting 50 orders from pax + freight operators who are installed base combination carriers is not going to be that difficult
they promise @100t @5000nm 20%+ less fuel burn than a 777F, all the above will be lining up
See how you’re just calling dozens everywhere like it’s a yard sale. These airlines have balance sheets to repair with no imminent need for freighters. Airbus has better luck with actual cargo operators.
I’m interested to see how Airbus will price these aircraft (if we ever will) they themselves admit the costing of the 350 gives the jet an uncompetitive edge
No imminent need of freighters? I guess it depends what imminent is, what happens after the pandemic etc. Quick look at Planespotters shows:
SQ had 7 744Fs till 3 years ago, maybe they wont be back in the freighter business, maybe they will
CI CEO just this year says they will have 18 744Fs and 6 777Fs when the last of the new ordered 777Fs are delivered in 2 years. Oldest 747Fs are 21 years old, newest 14 years. You cannot keep a 26 year old plane on the ROC register anymore (at least pax ones, dunno if the rule applies to cargo, but CI with its checkered safety history is not likely to keep those for 3 decades+. those are all ripe for replacement by end this decade and the 777fs potentally early/mid next decade if kept only a dozen years
OZ has 11 744F/BDSFs, maybe KE will sell them all off, they are all 20-30 years old, they are ripe for replacement if the new KE management wants to keep that number around in the new "KE"
CX has many new 747-8Fs, they still have 6 744Fs which are also relatively new but could be replaced by end of decade, of course CX may be a shadow of its former self by then to for all sorts of reasons, many beyond their control
CA has 3 744Fs ripe this decade for replacement (16-26 years old), their 777Fs are relatively new , oldest 8 years , but by end decade/early next may need replacing and any for expansion
CZ has 2 744F s which will need replacing- 19 years old, 14 777Fs , 6 of which are 10 years old already- see above re CA
CK (MU) has 2 744Fs 14-15 years old, 8 777Fs, 6 of which are 10-11 years old already- see above re CA
I could see VN getting into freighters eventually as well.
All of the above may get out of the freighter business, but given how the world economy is and how much stuff they export from "greater China" and Korea, I wouldn't bet a lot of money on it and a lot more money on someone, be it A or B, supplying them with new freighters in the next decade and half.