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morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:26 pm

zeke wrote:
morrisond wrote:
I know they are limited more by MLW or MZFW. I was generalizing and using the wrong term.


Well by some unknown co-incidence you have been using the wrong terms and the wrong numerical values at the same time.

morrisond wrote:
The 77F's big advantage I assume would be sales price, just like the 777ERSF. 250 77F's sold.


What is this pricing advantage ?

Going by the previous list prices I think they will be very similar, with the A350F then having the lower NPV as it is lighter, lower operating costs, slightly faster trip times, and lower maintenance.

From a manufacturing standpoint, once the 77X is in production is is going to more expensive to produce the 77F as they share very little in terms of structure or systems with the 77X. The A350F will have the same structure and systems as the A350-900/1000.


Sorry I was not aware that you had the precise data from Airbus itself on what the 350F's capabilities are.

Funny - I think months ago you attacked me for suggesting the 777X was basically brand new with all new systems.

They build the 77X and the 77F on the same lines.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton ... 99f0ad606f

I don't even you really believe that they will sell new A350F's for the same price as end of line 77F's. Well they could but then they would be getting zero return on their investment.

There is a reason the 350 so light - it uses a lot of very expensive materials and due to the way Airbus organizes itself you have to assume Labour costs are a lot higher.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/busines ... r-1.876741

Do you really think there is only a $20 Million difference in transaction price between an A350 and 330NEO?

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... s?from=mdr

I've suggested before that Airbus may be wise to do what Boeing did to the 787. Remove some of the more expensive parts and substitute in less costly but potentially stronger materials (Stainless for Ti) to improve capability and lower cost while modestly impacting weight.
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 4:40 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:
LX321 wrote:

Why do you repeat that the 350 is hampered by its small wing. What is the intention of that statement? Its inefficient or its small compared to what? A bigger plane?


If they grow it to 330T or 340T.

And the same fete befalls the 777x at 380t but I fail to see why either is relevant? At equal payload the range performance is basically equal.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Because there is still a large part of Cargo market that wants the Extra lift an 330T or 340T A350F or 360T 778XF could provide.

If you are going to develop a new freighter - why would you handicap it from the get go? That is all I'm arguing - Airbus should put more into it to make it the most capable/flexible solution.

It is not a question of whether or not they can - it's just whether or not they will. Without looking up data - I would have to guess the A300-600F won so many orders was due to it's capabilities. The A330F fell short. Hopefully they won't make the same mistake again.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:03 pm

morrisond wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
morrisond wrote:

If they grow it to 330T or 340T.

And the same fete befalls the 777x at 380t but I fail to see why either is relevant? At equal payload the range performance is basically equal.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Because there is still a large part of Cargo market that wants the Extra lift an 330T or 340T A350F or 360T 778XF could provide.

If you are going to develop a new freighter - why would you handicap it from the get go? That is all I'm arguing - Airbus should put more into it to make it the most capable/flexible solution.

It is not a question of whether or not they can - it's just whether or not they will. Without looking up data - I would have to guess the A300-600F won so many orders was due to it's capabilities. The A330F fell short. Hopefully they won't make the same mistake again.

Please don’t draw a false equivalence between a 340t A350F and a 360t 777xf.

If airbus were making a mistake with a 319t or 323t MTOW then Boeing would be making the exact self same mistake with a 351t or 360t MTOW. An A350F does NOT need 340t to equal the performance of a 360t 777xF. This is why I mentioned a380t MTOW having the same wing limitations as you previously mentioned.

If you say it more often it won’t become true.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:07 pm

This thread is starting to become very un-fun.... it's full of contributions from folks who want the A350F to fail, because it's not produced by their home team manufacturer, and they are going through great lengths and circumnavigational reasoning to support their program failure narrative. Some of us just want to be excited that something new is being built.... No, but not you guys.... you have you anti-airframer biases to promote. Good grief.... take a break already.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:12 pm

morrisond wrote:

There is a reason the 350 so light - it uses a lot of very expensive materials and due to the way Airbus organizes itself you have to assume Labour costs are a lot higher.



Nope, the savings from the exotic materials just aren’t there. The A359 weighs the same as the 772. The ability to take advantage of the lower fuel requirement of new engines really drives the weight advantage.

It’s convenient to attribute it to magic carbon but it isn’t really true like they’d have you believe.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:16 pm

morrisond wrote:
I don't even you really believe that they will sell new A350F's for the same price as end of line 77F's. Well they could but then they would be getting zero return on their investment.

I’m not sure what your point is here, the very fact that Boeing would be selling “end of the line” 77F’s would mean that there is a gap in the market for a replacement. Granted no one can be sure of what the exact specification of the A350F will be, but I would be willing to bet that it will be able to match the 77F whilst being more efficient and more importantly regulation compliant.

morrisond wrote:
I've suggested before that Airbus may be wise to do what Boeing did to the 787. Remove some of the more expensive parts and substitute in less costly but potentially stronger materials (Stainless for Ti) to improve capability and lower cost while modestly impacting weight.


Perhaps they should, early 787’s were sold at a huge loss in the hope that the line would eventually turn a profit. Given that the A350 line is already profitable maybe selling early A350Fs with a huge discounts would serve to both drum up orders and deter Boeing from developing a future freighter in this segment.
 
AirbusCheerlead
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 5:39 pm

Revelation wrote:
LX321 wrote:
And yet the CEO stated that EIS will be in 2025. Is that not a launch?

You can't have an entry in service without an airline, so unless Airbus announces it's starting its own airline or announces one ore more customers, it's not a launch.


I think over 10 years ago, in 2010, after an other Airbus launch on December 1st we had the exact same discussion here.

December 1st, 2010 Airbus lunches the A320neo without any customer.
January 17th, 2011 Virgin America becomes launch costumer of the neo.

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... amily.html
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reu ... ZV20110117

Best regards and stay safe,
Jonas
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:32 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
This thread is starting to become very un-fun.... it's full of contributions from folks who want the A350F to fail, because it's not produced by their home team manufacturer, and they are going through great lengths and circumnavigational reasoning to support their program failure narrative. Some of us just want to be excited that something new is being built.... No, but not you guys.... you have you anti-airframer biases to promote. Good grief.... take a break already.

Sorry, but IMO you're playing the man not the ball.

IMO, if you have something to say about the actual comments, say it, and stay away from claiming what other people are saying is biased, because everyone is biased in their own way. Point out what is biased rather than just saying someone is biased.

By your own statement one can use your own standards to suggest you are biased because you suggest you want to see something new built just because that is exciting to you, not because it will make a positive impact on the world or makes economic sense for the customer or the manufacturer or whatever. That's a form of bias.

If that kind of thing is thrilling one can go to manufacturer web sites and get all the thrills one wants. They will be biased, but still they will be thrills none the less, as sexed up as the manufacturer thinks they can get away with. Most people get bored with that rather quickly and want more substance, even if it comes with an element of controversy.

Just because one points out ways products may be challenged doesn't mean one wants the product to fail. It's a big gamble any time a manufacturer builds anything. Some find more thrills in the gamble itself rather than the end product. As the kids say, YKINMK ( ref: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=YKINMK ) and that's OK in my book.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:35 pm

morrisond wrote:
Now something like Folding tips that allow it to fit in narrower gates,



It would be a first for me to see a cargo plane requiring a gate position but ok, if you say so :lol:
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 3:45 pm

We had a pretty robust discussion of single pilot stuff two months ago:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1461873

Personally I don't see anything insurmountable if what is being suggested goes. Seems you would have to have monitoring of the pilot's alertness and vital signs to detect any incapacitation, and would need to make sure emergency procedures can be handled by a single pilot for at least 15 minutes so the backup(s) can return to the cockpit and gain wakefulness, presumably with the 1E9 "get out of jail free" card to cover unlikely occurrences.

As I wrote back then:

Personally I though we would need a plane that could be taken over by a ground station before we'd have one pilot operation, and that would need an all new cockpit architecture along with high bandwidth / high availability data links before it could happen.

... which of course would require a new cockpit architecture, but it seems the standard for single pilot operation will be lower than I thought it would be.
 
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SQ22
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:00 pm

A friendly reminder:

Subject of discussion is A350F, I fully understand that you are discussing Boeing products as well, but please try to keep it on topic and feel free to start a dedicated thread in case you think a deeper discussion of i.e. details of a possible 77X freighter is justified.

Please provide links to your sources when stating facts.

Finally discuss the topic and do not attack user users.

Thanks.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:10 pm

Revelation wrote:
We had a pretty robust discussion of single pilot stuff two months ago:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1461873

Personally I don't see anything insurmountable if what is being suggested goes. Seems you would have to have monitoring of the pilot's alertness and vital signs to detect any incapacitation, and would need to make sure emergency procedures can be handled by a single pilot for at least 15 minutes so the backup(s) can return to the cockpit and gain wakefulness, presumably with the 1E9 "get out of jail free" card to cover unlikely occurrences.

As I wrote back then:

Personally I though we would need a plane that could be taken over by a ground station before we'd have one pilot operation, and that would need an all new cockpit architecture along with high bandwidth / high availability data links before it could happen.

... which of course would require a new cockpit architecture, but it seems the standard for single pilot operation will be lower than I thought it would be.


I posted this before the thread got de-railed and the mods did some “moddin”

I don’t personally don’t relish the thought of single pilot operations, but there is another advantage to Airbus introducing a freighter that I had not considered, it will give them the ability to test and prove the technology without passenger concerns - It would be an easier sell to a nervous flying public if they can say its proven
 
tommy1808
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:14 pm

oschkosch wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Now something like Folding tips that allow it to fit in narrower gates,



It would be a first for me to see a cargo plane requiring a gate position but ok, if you say so :lol:


They do still need ramp space, alas the the A330/350/77F/778XF need the same ramp space span wise.

Best regards
Thomas
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:54 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
morrisond wrote:
Now something like Folding tips that allow it to fit in narrower gates,



It would be a first for me to see a cargo plane requiring a gate position but ok, if you say so :lol:


They do still need ramp space, alas the the A330/350/77F/778XF need the same ramp space span wise.

Best regards
Thomas


Yes RAMP space would have been the better choice of words.
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:55 pm

This is a good white paper on the pitfalls of single pilot operations.

Given the source take it with a grain of salt - but it does make some good points.

https://www.alpa.org/-/media/ALPA/Files ... .pdf?la=en
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:56 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
It would be a first for me to see a cargo plane requiring a gate position but ok, if you say so :lol:

They do still need ramp space, alas the the A330/350/77F/778XF need the same ramp space span wise.

Seems to me ramp space is still an issue. As per our ongoing cargo thread, IAI is now starting up another 767 conversion line, this one in Ethiopia ( ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456521&p=22924133#p22924087 ). ET will provide the first three frames for feedstock and will put them into service. The relevance to this thread is that IMO there is a ceiling to demand for A350-sized freighters, the market seems very happy to keep the 767 era going for as long as it can.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:23 pm

hmmm, I'll ask again. In this thread, someone quoted an October 31, 2021 Airbus launch event. I see any post that referenced that have been deleted. Did that turn out to be fake news?
 
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SQ22
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:27 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
hmmm, I'll ask again. In this thread, someone quoted an October 31, 2021 Airbus launch event. I see any post that referenced that have been deleted. Did that turn out to be fake news?


As stated above, when presenting facts, please always provide a link to your source or in case it is a rumour, please make it clear you are posting a rumour and in case that the respective link was posted a few weeks before in the respective thread, please re-post it again. Not everyone is browsing back and forth through the thread.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:33 pm

Revelation wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
It would be a first for me to see a cargo plane requiring a gate position but ok, if you say so :lol:

They do still need ramp space, alas the the A330/350/77F/778XF need the same ramp space span wise.

Seems to me ramp space is still an issue. As per our ongoing cargo thread, IAI is now starting up another 767 conversion line, this one in Ethiopia ( ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456521&p=22924133#p22924087 ). ET will provide the first three frames for feedstock and will put them into service. The relevance to this thread is that IMO there is a ceiling to demand for A350-sized freighters, the market seems very happy to keep the 767 era going for as long as it can.


Of all the arguments against the A350F this in my opinion is the weakest. It would be a safe bet to assume that any potential customer is going to have both the demand and space to accommodate a large freighter; if they have demand but no space then it would be prudent for them to expand to make the space or face losing business to a competitor.

Furthermore, with the only alternative being the 777F with which It should share an almost identical wingspan, what other option is there? If ramp space really is a problem then I don’t see how using two smaller freighters to achieve what could be achieved with one as the best option.

The only potential problem I can see for the A350F would be the 77W P2F. There is going to be a lot of feedstock available and it should be a very capable aircraft at a very reasonable cost. I know its been discussed in here already but I still don’t quite understand how the new emissions regulations will affect it. Can a P2F conversion be registered globally without issue post 2028?
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:16 pm

SQ22 wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
hmmm, I'll ask again. In this thread, someone quoted an October 31, 2021 Airbus launch event. I see any post that referenced that have been deleted. Did that turn out to be fake news?


As stated above, when presenting facts, please always provide a link to your source or in case it is a rumour, please make it clear you are posting a rumour and in case that the respective link was posted a few weeks before in the respective thread, please re-post it again. Not everyone is browsing back and forth through the thread.


i asked questions.. i didn't state facts. i think that you are confusing me with other posters. I saw that Oct 31,2021 date was accompanied by a citation... so I used it in my reply... so did others... so I'm simply asking why the reference has been removed. what is a false date? I was not the originator of that date... but I seem to have had several posts deleted from this thread... I don't belive that I was in violation of anything.
 
toga998
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:27 pm

Thought I was browsing Facebook with all the arguments on here. Lighten up folks.
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:56 pm

G'day

i asked questions.. i didn't state facts. i think that you are confusing me with other posters. I saw that Oct 31,2021 date was accompanied by a citation... so I used it in my reply... so did others... so I'm simply asking why the reference has been removed. what is a false date? I was not the originator of that date... but I seem to have had several posts deleted from this thread... I don't belive that I was in violation of anything.


Welcome to the club. I may have questioned posts from members, for good reasons based on available info, some did not like the alternative opinion - though I always based it what I believe were facts. Well, it will be seconds this post will be removed.....

Cheers

Peter
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:21 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
Revelation wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
They do still need ramp space, alas the the A330/350/77F/778XF need the same ramp space span wise.

Seems to me ramp space is still an issue. As per our ongoing cargo thread, IAI is now starting up another 767 conversion line, this one in Ethiopia ( ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456521&p=22924133#p22924087 ). ET will provide the first three frames for feedstock and will put them into service. The relevance to this thread is that IMO there is a ceiling to demand for A350-sized freighters, the market seems very happy to keep the 767 era going for as long as it can.


Of all the arguments against the A350F this in my opinion is the weakest. It would be a safe bet to assume that any potential customer is going to have both the demand and space to accommodate a large freighter; if they have demand but no space then it would be prudent for them to expand to make the space or face losing business to a competitor.

Furthermore, with the only alternative being the 777F with which It should share an almost identical wingspan, what other option is there? If ramp space really is a problem then I don’t see how using two smaller freighters to achieve what could be achieved with one as the best option.

The only potential problem I can see for the A350F would be the 77W P2F. There is going to be a lot of feedstock available and it should be a very capable aircraft at a very reasonable cost. I know its been discussed in here already but I still don’t quite understand how the new emissions regulations will affect it. Can a P2F conversion be registered globally without issue post 2028?


Well no - the two largest Air Cargo carriers that purchase the largest number of new Freighters have definite ramp space issues.

There is an alternative in a potential folding wing 787F that could fit in a 52M gate. Or Airbus could do the same with 350F.

Again it's about giving your offering the largest potential market by giving it the features customers want.

The emissions regulations will not apply to the 777ERSF as they are existing airplanes.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:34 pm

morrisond wrote:

Well no - the two largest Air Cargo carriers that purchase the largest number of new Freighters have definite ramp space issues.


They do? I’d love to read more about these issues and how they plan to solve them using only 767 sized freighters.

morrisond wrote:
There is an alternative in a potential folding wing 787F that could fit in a 52M gate. Or Airbus could do the same with 350F.

Again it's about giving your offering the largest potential market by giving it the features customers want.

What’s with the obsession over folding wing-tips? The 77X has them in order to fit into existing airport infrastructure. Why would Boeing go to the expense and hassle of designing an entirely new wing for a freighter? It would be insanity.

morrisond wrote:
The emissions regulations will not apply to the 777ERSF as they are existing airplanes.

Could you link me to where this is documented? Searching around the web I cannot seem to find a definitive source. Some say that yes, there will be no problem for a converted freighter operating in the USA along as it was previously registered there. However, it becomes much more complicated with Europe and there is even discussion of forcing operators of non-compliant aircraft to pay a carbon tax for operating within the EU airspace.
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:34 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

It helps us to understand how Airbus may have determined the unique length of the proposed A350F.

A359 rear fuselage + 1 additional plug for the cargo door section + A35J center section (six-boegie landing gear/wing root) + A359 front section. Of course the A350-1000 already uses the A359 front and rear sections.... they just have additional plugs fore and aft... a 6 frame plug between the center section and the front section... and a 5 frame plub between the center section and the rear section. The center section of the A35J is the same length as the cneter section of the A359.. it just has it's gear bay extended by 1 frame (visually it looks like that extension moved it rearward a tad)..

Would the A350F utilize a smaller plug in the rear to construct the cargo door, or is the existing 5 frame section of the A35J the correct size for that? Would that create a tail heavy plane if a corresponding plug was not installed in front of the wing? Would they instead develop a smaller plug in for the rear (cargo door) and corresponding smaller plug for the front (balance)

Image


There is no plugs on the A350, they are made from 3 barrel sections, just the sections are different lengths depending on what is being built. The front section is called section 13/14, the middle section 15, and the rear fuselage 16/18.
 
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Heavierthanair
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Thu Aug 19, 2021 8:55 pm

G'day

morrisond wrote:
Well no - the two largest Air Cargo carriers that purchase the largest number of new Freighters have definite ramp space issues.

There is an alternative in a potential folding wing 787F that could fit in a 52M gate. Or Airbus could do the same with 350F.

Again it's about giving your offering the largest potential market by giving it the features customers want.


Developing a freighter version of an existing aircraft seems to be pretty straight forward. Using existing wings, undercarriage, engines, avionics, even tweaking weights - all seem to be no issues.

Folding wings however, be that the B787 or A350 appears to be the equivalent of opening a can of worms, I doubt that the cost of having such a modified wing developed and certified will ever recover costs. The 779 was designed from the outset to have a folding wing, will they ever recuperate the cost, I doubt it, few airlines likely need that feature anyway. My opinion, I have erred before.

Cheers

Peter
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:31 am

zeke wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

It helps us to understand how Airbus may have determined the unique length of the proposed A350F.

A359 rear fuselage + 1 additional plug for the cargo door section + A35J center section (six-boegie landing gear/wing root) + A359 front section. Of course the A350-1000 already uses the A359 front and rear sections.... they just have additional plugs fore and aft... a 6 frame plug between the center section and the front section... and a 5 frame plub between the center section and the rear section. The center section of the A35J is the same length as the cneter section of the A359.. it just has it's gear bay extended by 1 frame (visually it looks like that extension moved it rearward a tad)..

Would the A350F utilize a smaller plug in the rear to construct the cargo door, or is the existing 5 frame section of the A35J the correct size for that? Would that create a tail heavy plane if a corresponding plug was not installed in front of the wing? Would they instead develop a smaller plug in for the rear (cargo door) and corresponding smaller plug for the front (balance)

Image


There is no plugs on the A350, they are made from 3 barrel sections, just the sections are different lengths depending on what is being built. The front section is called section 13/14, the middle section 15, and the rear fuselage 16/18.


Okay, so the custom length of the A350-950 will mean entirely new fuselage sections 13/14 and 16/18... And then perhaps a repositioning of the wing and gear bay wtihin section 15. Thanks for responding.


Heavierthanair wrote:
G'day

i asked questions.. i didn't state facts. i think that you are confusing me with other posters. I saw that Oct 31,2021 date was accompanied by a citation... so I used it in my reply... so did others... so I'm simply asking why the reference has been removed. what is a false date? I was not the originator of that date... but I seem to have had several posts deleted from this thread... I don't belive that I was in violation of anything.


Welcome to the club. I may have questioned posts from members, for good reasons based on available info, some did not like the alternative opinion - though I always based it what I believe were facts. Well, it will be seconds this post will be removed.....

Cheers

Peter


Generally, I avoid snarky posts and arguing with folks as it degrades the conversations.... I just think all of my posts were deleted because I quoted another user who included the Oct 31 date in his response... I was just trying to figure out why my post were specifically deleted...I suspect it was the mention of the launch as all reference to it seems to have disappeared from this thread. It's odd that everyone is suddenly mum on the launch date in a launch thread (though I agree this is so far an authority to offer thread... but I'm not going to push that...)
 
amdiesen
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:41 am

SQ22 wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
hmmm, I'll ask again. In this thread, someone quoted an October 31, 2021 Airbus launch event. I see any post that referenced that have been deleted. Did that turn out to be fake news?


As stated above, when presenting facts, please always provide a link to your source or in case it is a rumour, please make it clear you are posting a rumour and in case that the respective link was posted a few weeks before in the respective thread, please re-post it again. Not everyone is browsing back and forth through the thread.


yes, that would be me, sarcasm gone awry... 10/31 being Halloween, and the A350 having a raccoon mask, certainly esoteric for an international audience.

to the board:
two relevant, topic related, threads of thought that went into challenging everyone to think through humor
1st, was a senior poster challenging proposed A350F Boeing defense options which argued 'lean into heavily discounted bridge production of the b772f', his response was one should not bite off his nose despite his face; said much more eloquently in french.
2nd, is the thesis espoused by several senior posters that "Airbus really has not done anything <significant>" and yet they have raised awareness/debate and motivated many of the 31 cargo airliners that buy new builds to engage the airframer on the A350F product.
The more reliable data points one has the clearer the overall picture., critical thinking become secondary. The way I read Zeke's post and replied, is because I got the sense that he, and other senior posters, had the overall picture and was/were just waiting for everyone else to catch up.

The overall picture may include an A350 freighter in revenue service some time in the future and Boeing will be required to have a long-term response. But what appears to be less clear to many is that Airbus is playing this instrument exquisitely. Further Boeing's best defense is difficult. As bridge production freighters will significantly outlast the b77xf production life-cycle they are a direct substitutes. The three primary prospects for the A350F align their business model with purchases in the sunrise of the production life-cycle; ie bridge production purchases regardless of price is motivationally mute for key carriers and destructive to Boeing's objective. The reasoned defense for the A350F Siren's Song is to announce and aggressively convert GE90-11x powered b777s while holding firm on rational profit making pricing for new builds; naturally/painfully allowing sunset production to wane, better positioning Boeing to properly sunrise the XF. This takes passenger frames out of an over-saturated market and offers compelling alternatives to the potential A350F. There are a number of A350F 'tunes' that Airbus can play including the 'Halloween advance launch unmasking', 'the ground-hog day NLO(new launch option)', and 'Easter's, the Phoenix has Risen'... eventually a fish will bite.

to the mods:
Thank you for taking time to clean up as intent and realty mis-aligned.
Sarcasm can inspire thought, however it is not always funny. <tip-hat>
 
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zeke
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:28 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Okay, so the custom length of the A350-950 will mean entirely new fuselage sections 13/14 and 16/18... And then perhaps a repositioning of the wing and gear bay wtihin section 15. Thanks for responding.


My thoughts were to use the sections of the existing -900/-1000 together. If they used the forward fuselage of the -900 and centre section back from the -1000 they would achieve symmetry in the under floor cargo holds each capable of 6 pallets.

This would be a relatively low cost development as it would use existing interfaces between sections. The wing/gear/engines have the design work done for that centre section, and for the higher weights.

The -900 forward section already has the -1000 landing gear installed since the 280 tonne W/V.
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:30 am

zeke wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Okay, so the custom length of the A350-950 will mean entirely new fuselage sections 13/14 and 16/18... And then perhaps a repositioning of the wing and gear bay wtihin section 15. Thanks for responding.


My thoughts were to use the sections of the existing -900/-1000 together. If they used the forward fuselage of the -900 and centre section back from the -1000 they would achieve symmetry in the under floor cargo holds each capable of 6 pallets.

This would be a relatively low cost development as it would use existing interfaces between sections. The wing/gear/engines have the design work done for that centre section, and for the higher weights.

The -900 forward section already has the -1000 landing gear installed since the 280 tonne W/V.


Wouldn't the COG be way out of wack?
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 8:10 am

Latest from Leeham on P2Fs (scroll down to second heading), there will definitely be a lot of competition for new-builds:

"ATSG, one of the major cargo operators and airplane suppliers, ordered 20 Airbus A330ceo P2F conversions from EFW-ST Aerospace. This brings total EFW contracts to 100.

The move by ATSG, which is a leading supplier to Amazon’s Prime Air, is significant. ATSG is a major operator of Boeing 767 P2Fs and holds slots with IAI for 32 more conversions.

But ATSG says the acquisition of the A330s, with deliveries from 2023-2025, responds to growing interest in this type of aircraft. ATSG prefers the A330-300, a good package express freighter. It will consider A330-200 P2Fs for denser heavy cargo, longer-range routes."

https://leehamnews.com/2021/08/20/hotr- ... more-37332
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:40 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Latest from Leeham on P2Fs (scroll down to second heading), there will definitely be a lot of competition for new-builds:

"ATSG, one of the major cargo operators and airplane suppliers, ordered 20 Airbus A330ceo P2F conversions from EFW-ST Aerospace. This brings total EFW contracts to 100.

The move by ATSG, which is a leading supplier to Amazon’s Prime Air, is significant. ATSG is a major operator of Boeing 767 P2Fs and holds slots with IAI for 32 more conversions.

But ATSG says the acquisition of the A330s, with deliveries from 2023-2025, responds to growing interest in this type of aircraft. ATSG prefers the A330-300, a good package express freighter. It will consider A330-200 P2Fs for denser heavy cargo, longer-range routes."

https://leehamnews.com/2021/08/20/hotr- ... more-37332


I think the A330-300P2F probably has a great future, the A350F will have to contend with that as well as 777ERSF.

One has to remember the costs of fuel for a freight company are also what the truck's burn picking up the package from the customer and getting it delivered at the end. Plus all the sorting and logistics costs, not to mention labour. Whereas for a passenger flight Fuel might be 25% of a ticket, the fuel burned in a freighter might only be 5-10% of the fuel burned in the revenue derived from that shipment. Just think how much fuel an UPS truck would burn in a day multiply that by 2 and divide it by the number of packages. If you get $50 from an average package - close to half of that could be spent just picking it up and dropping it off.

Fuel use is less important in Freighter ops for package carriers. Capital cost is a much larger component of the equation than Passenger OPS. Pure Freight companies would probably place more value on flexibility and fuel burn isn't as big an issue due to the high value of the shipments.

If the A350F is just a more efficient but more costly package freighter it will have a hard time against A330P2F and 777ERSF.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 11:54 am

morrisond wrote:
[and fuel burn isn't as big an issue due to the high value of the shipments..


There was an Interview with someone, i would need to look it up at home, from Lufthansa Cargo in the latest edition of the German FlugRevue. She stated quite specifically that the low fuel burn of their now almost completely 77L based fleet gives them a significant edge at the moment, and that they would be in a bad place if the MD11 still played a larger role.
Seems to me even at 60~70USD for a barrel of oil fuel burn is important for cargo airlines, at least if the planes don´t sit on the ground a lot for express overnight runs. But if that is your business you are probably not in the market for new builds anyways.

best regards
Thomas
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:33 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
morrisond wrote:
[and fuel burn isn't as big an issue due to the high value of the shipments..


There was an Interview with someone, i would need to look it up at home, from Lufthansa Cargo in the latest edition of the German FlugRevue. She stated quite specifically that the low fuel burn of their now almost completely 77L based fleet gives them a significant edge at the moment, and that they would be in a bad place if the MD11 still played a larger role.
Seems to me even at 60~70USD for a barrel of oil fuel burn is important for cargo airlines, at least if the planes don´t sit on the ground a lot for express overnight runs. But if that is your business you are probably not in the market for new builds anyways.

best regards
Thomas


Personally I think Oil will trend down into the 30-50 USD per barrel range in the next few years due to its oversupply situation but that is me.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:39 pm

I would not underestimate the market power of ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) investors in the next few years, certainly in Europe.

Companies that take their responsibilities to reduce emissions seriously will be rewarded. That favours leaner-burn powerplants and efficient frames.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:50 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Heavierthanair wrote:
G'day
i asked questions.. i didn't state facts. i think that you are confusing me with other posters. I saw that Oct 31,2021 date was accompanied by a citation... so I used it in my reply... so did others... so I'm simply asking why the reference has been removed. what is a false date? I was not the originator of that date... but I seem to have had several posts deleted from this thread... I don't belive that I was in violation of anything.


Welcome to the club. I may have questioned posts from members, for good reasons based on available info, some did not like the alternative opinion - though I always based it what I believe were facts. Well, it will be seconds this post will be removed.....

Generally, I avoid snarky posts and arguing with folks as it degrades the conversations.... I just think all of my posts were deleted because I quoted another user who included the Oct 31 date in his response... I was just trying to figure out why my post were specifically deleted...I suspect it was the mention of the launch as all reference to it seems to have disappeared from this thread. It's odd that everyone is suddenly mum on the launch date in a launch thread (though I agree this is so far an authority to offer thread... but I'm not going to push that...)

If you want to know, email [email protected] and you should have an answer pretty quickly, in my experience. I've also asked for the texts of deleted messages back so I can edit out the offending content and they have been able to provide it. If you think a public discussion of policy is a better approach, try the 'Site Related' forum. All this is in our rules document in the pinned post on every forum's front page.

I gotta say this experience of seeing moderators delete posts for lack of a source leading to a confession that it was all a made-up attempt at humor is a first for me after many years on the site. It shows that requiring links to sources is a good rule. It also shows how easy it is for 'fake news' to take hold.

Personally I took the bait readily because I was relieved by the idea that this saga of the launched freighter with no definition of its length, the number of containers it can hold, or its payload, or its range, or its cost, or its customers, or its orders, had a finite end in sight. Instead we seem to be destined for weeks if not months more of rehashing the same theories we've been discussing for months if not years, none of which can be eliminated because we have no facts. Oh, well...
 
tvh
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 12:57 pm

morrisond wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Latest from Leeham on P2Fs (scroll down to second heading), there will definitely be a lot of competition for new-builds:

"ATSG, one of the major cargo operators and airplane suppliers, ordered 20 Airbus A330ceo P2F conversions from EFW-ST Aerospace. This brings total EFW contracts to 100.

The move by ATSG, which is a leading supplier to Amazon’s Prime Air, is significant. ATSG is a major operator of Boeing 767 P2Fs and holds slots with IAI for 32 more conversions.

But ATSG says the acquisition of the A330s, with deliveries from 2023-2025, responds to growing interest in this type of aircraft. ATSG prefers the A330-300, a good package express freighter. It will consider A330-200 P2Fs for denser heavy cargo, longer-range routes."

https://leehamnews.com/2021/08/20/hotr- ... more-37332


I think the A330-300P2F probably has a great future, the A350F will have to contend with that as well as 777ERSF.

One has to remember the costs of fuel for a freight company are also what the truck's burn picking up the package from the customer and getting it delivered at the end. Plus all the sorting and logistics costs, not to mention labour. Whereas for a passenger flight Fuel might be 25% of a ticket, the fuel burned in a freighter might only be 5-10% of the fuel burned in the revenue derived from that shipment. Just think how much fuel an UPS truck would burn in a day multiply that by 2 and divide it by the number of packages. If you get $50 from an average package - close to half of that could be spent just picking it up and dropping it off.

Fuel use is less important in Freighter ops for package carriers. Capital cost is a much larger component of the equation than Passenger OPS. Pure Freight companies would probably place more value on flexibility and fuel burn isn't as big an issue due to the high value of the shipments.

If the A350F is just a more efficient but more costly package freighter it will have a hard time against A330P2F and 777ERSF.


A330P2F and 777ERDF is medium range, high volume.
A350F is longer range and high weight, high Utilization.
So different markt segment. The first are good for there market segement because low cost of ownership, the A350F is good on longer ranges for its low fuel burn and maintenance costs.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 1:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
I gotta say this experience of seeing moderators delete posts for lack of a source leading to a confession that it was all a made-up attempt at humor is a first for me after many years on the site. It shows that requiring links to sources is a good rule. It also shows how easy it is for 'fake news' to take hold.

Personally I took the bait readily because I was relieved by the idea that this saga of the launched freighter with no definition of its length, the number of containers it can hold, or its payload, or its range, or its cost, or its customers, or its orders, had a finite end in sight. Instead we seem to be destined for weeks if not months more of rehashing the same theories we've been discussing for months if not years, none of which can be eliminated because we have no facts. Oh, well...


Upon learning of the made-up date, I'm glad the mods deleted it... and I fully understand that my contributions were deleted as well because I cited that false date... So, unknowingly I was made part of the joke (however unaware). I agree we are back to guessing and pontificating because thus far we have 'an authority to offer', but are still awaiting an announcement of an official launch with a launch customer/customers and clearer specifications. I learned that I need to carefully check the truthfulness of someone's information before I quote/cite it within my own posts (aka. vetting)..
 
morrisond
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 2:35 pm

tvh wrote:
morrisond wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Latest from Leeham on P2Fs (scroll down to second heading), there will definitely be a lot of competition for new-builds:

"ATSG, one of the major cargo operators and airplane suppliers, ordered 20 Airbus A330ceo P2F conversions from EFW-ST Aerospace. This brings total EFW contracts to 100.

The move by ATSG, which is a leading supplier to Amazon’s Prime Air, is significant. ATSG is a major operator of Boeing 767 P2Fs and holds slots with IAI for 32 more conversions.

But ATSG says the acquisition of the A330s, with deliveries from 2023-2025, responds to growing interest in this type of aircraft. ATSG prefers the A330-300, a good package express freighter. It will consider A330-200 P2Fs for denser heavy cargo, longer-range routes."

https://leehamnews.com/2021/08/20/hotr- ... more-37332


I think the A330-300P2F probably has a great future, the A350F will have to contend with that as well as 777ERSF.

One has to remember the costs of fuel for a freight company are also what the truck's burn picking up the package from the customer and getting it delivered at the end. Plus all the sorting and logistics costs, not to mention labour. Whereas for a passenger flight Fuel might be 25% of a ticket, the fuel burned in a freighter might only be 5-10% of the fuel burned in the revenue derived from that shipment. Just think how much fuel an UPS truck would burn in a day multiply that by 2 and divide it by the number of packages. If you get $50 from an average package - close to half of that could be spent just picking it up and dropping it off.

Fuel use is less important in Freighter ops for package carriers. Capital cost is a much larger component of the equation than Passenger OPS. Pure Freight companies would probably place more value on flexibility and fuel burn isn't as big an issue due to the high value of the shipments.

If the A350F is just a more efficient but more costly package freighter it will have a hard time against A330P2F and 777ERSF.


A330P2F and 777ERDF is medium range, high volume.
A350F is longer range and high weight, high Utilization.
So different markt segment. The first are good for there market segement because low cost of ownership, the A350F is good on longer ranges for its low fuel burn and maintenance costs.


A 777ERSF should still be able load almost 100T of fuel in addition to 101T of payload - that is long range for a freighter and right in the same ballpark of what an A350F should be able to lift to the same range - albeit probably burning 15-20% less fuel.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 3:08 pm

Revelation wrote:

Personally I took the bait readily because I was relieved by the idea that this saga of the launched freighter with no definition of its length, the number of containers it can hold, or its payload, or its range, or its cost, or its customers, or its orders, had a finite end in sight. Instead we seem to be destined for weeks if not months more of rehashing the same theories we've been discussing for months if not years, none of which can be eliminated because we have no facts. Oh, well...


I am not quite sure of what you are trying to say here; The A350F is entirely a work of fiction? Or are you going back to the usual “THIS IS NOT A LAUNCH” crap?

As many have stated over many pages Airbus has a great opportunity here to both test the market potential of a large freighter whist also significantly limiting any potential profits for its competitor. If we accept that this is just an authority to offer (which I thought we had already) then what honestly do Airbus have to lose? The only competition is the 77F, a 20-year-old design not able to be delivered after new regulations come into effect.

So, there is a gap in the market. If they get interest and orders fantastic, given that a freighter was anticipated from the start of the A350 program then it should not be a huge undertaking to put one into production. On top of that it also presents an opportunity to test new technologies such as single pilot operation which has the potential to be big cost saver for operators hence a big selling point for the type.

I honestly do not understand the negative attitude here towards such a project, what better time has there been for Airbus to try and get a foot into the freighter market
 
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sassiciai
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:48 pm

Daysleeper, spot on says I.

Those who pour cold water on this, who argue that because they don't know about the length, the range, the payload limits, the price, and any customers already signed on the dotted line must mean that no one does! For all we know, lots may have already been progressed between Airbus and potential, even actual, customers behind closed doors.
 
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reidar76
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:50 pm

Flightglobal.com reports today:
Airbus is “clearly targeting the heavy widebody sector”.

"Airbus [... ] will [...] have first-mover advantage over Boeing, which has yet to decide whether to offer a freighter variant of its developmental 777X."

Siting an analyst on potensial competition from 777XF: "a 777-8F is unlikely to arrive much before 2028, giving its rival a three-year head-start." "Airbus is counting on the better fuel efficiency” of its new-build freighter to be a key differentiator".

"Airbus is also banking on the fuel efficiency of the A350F to see off any potential competition from the 777-300ERSF conversion programme".

Key marked will be MD-11 and 747-400F replacements. Respectively, about 100 frames and 200 frames of those freighters are coming up for replacement. Airbus needs to sell 150 A350 freighters over the lifetime of the programme, the analyst claims.

The A350F will be well positioned between the MD-11F and 747-400F, in size (volume/weight).

https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers ... 66.article
Last edited by reidar76 on Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 4:57 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Personally I took the bait readily because I was relieved by the idea that this saga of the launched freighter with no definition of its length, the number of containers it can hold, or its payload, or its range, or its cost, or its customers, or its orders, had a finite end in sight. Instead we seem to be destined for weeks if not months more of rehashing the same theories we've been discussing for months if not years, none of which can be eliminated because we have no facts. Oh, well...

I am not quite sure of what you are trying to say here; The A350F is entirely a work of fiction? Or are you going back to the usual “THIS IS NOT A LAUNCH” crap?

What I am saying here is pretty clear, I'm frustrated by the lack of information, and in particular the lack of expressions of interest by customers. If we knew more of the unknowns (length, number of containers, payload, range, cost) we could get a better idea of who might make a commitment to the program. In my world view, it all leads back to the customer, as per the first post of this thread months ago.

The founder of IBM had a saying "it all starts with the sale". Basically, "no pay, no play", or at least not much play. It only gets serious when money changes hands. That's a big part of my world view, even though I am an engineer not a salesman. I find the whole process fascinating. If I may exaggerate a bit, I find the whole idea that people should be shut up and be happy that a new shiny thing is being created to be simplistic and boring, but I understand others have different world views so I don't spend time criticizing their posts, I just move on.

Daysleeper wrote:
I honestly do not understand the negative attitude here towards such a project, what better time has there been for Airbus to try and get a foot into the freighter market

I honestly do not understand why asking such questions gets labeled as being a negative attitude. I think that perception just indicates people just have different world views. Some get uncomfortable when questions are asked, others are okay with it and accept it as a part of the process, some find the process of questioning adds a lot of value to the process so they embrace it. As a famous executive once said, "If we're all thinking alike, none of us are thinking!".

sassiciai wrote:
Those who pour cold water on this, who argue that because they don't know about the length, the range, the payload limits, the price, and any customers already signed on the dotted line must mean that no one does! For all we know, lots may have already been progressed between Airbus and potential, even actual, customers behind closed doors.

Exactly, no one knows, we can agree on that. I guess in one world view, asking questions or pushing back on statements in the absence of information equates to cold water. So be it, but it's not the only way to view the situation.
 
LX321
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:07 pm

I recommend watching the video (perhaps the link is already posted here) of CEO Faury. The 350F is coming and no it is certainly beyond paper plane status. Otherwise, Faurys statement of an EIS in 2025 would be a public lie.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/29/a ... faury.html
 
jagraham
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Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Aug 20, 2021 5:57 pm

flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Anyway. It’s not certification that will be the determinant of failure or success.

Indeed, it’s about whether the payload-range with an increased OWE and ‘specific range’ increase in can still be competitive given the relatively low utilisation skewing costs towards reduced capital vs reduced fuel burn compared to the pax variant. Both the 77XF and the A350F share this self same problem to a degree but the carrot here is that the next generation of wide bodies will suffer even worse with this and may well be completely uncompetitive giving the ‘victor’ from this a long standing role in this market.

In my view Boeing should have just slapped the Ge9x on the 77W/L/F and called it a day. The A350F would not compete with that IMHO.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Im a little late, but I believe the new 77X wing is what allowed the ~10% thrust reduction.

They did run the GE9X to a thrust level well above the GE90-115 level, so conceivably thrust could be bumped up to 110K or 115K to support the old planes.

A strong case could be made for a 777 Longer Range family with 110K engines and 10% less fuel capacity; about the same range for 10% less. Would it have been competitive versus the A359 and especially the A35J? But pax airplanes is a different question

Certainly freighters are much more capex sensitive; just attaching the new engine to the old airframe would have saved a lot of money. But would the freighter survive alone? Especially versus a viable A35J derived freighter? Because the old airframe with the new engines would be a wash against the A350 lineup at best.

But on the other hand, would the A350F survive against the pricing Boeing could provide with a 777MAX lineup? My guess is that Boeing didn't think so; otherwise they should have done a 777MAX and waited on a new wing. But I could be wrong . . . comments welcome.
 
2175301
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:02 pm

LX321 wrote:
I recommend watching the video (perhaps the link is already posted here) of CEO Faury. The 350F is coming and no it is certainly beyond paper plane status. Otherwise, Faurys statement of an EIS in 2025 would be a public lie.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/29/a ... faury.html


I disagree on how much emphasis you are putting in a claimed EIS date.

The history of both Airbus and Boeing on EIS dates should tell you that it at best a hope.

The B787 had an initial Announced EIS Date. Was missed by many years.

The A350 initial announced concept with an EIS was botched so bad that they went back to the drawing board and came up with an entirely new A350 Concept with a new EIS. That was missed as well.

The A380 had an initial EIS, and was missed by years.

The A380F had an initial EIS, and was never produced even though it had a sizable number of orders.

The B77X had an intial EIS, and is currently years late.

If there is one thing I am reasonably sure of... That its most likely that the claimed EIS date for the A350F is likely wrong as well. That does not make it a lie. It's just a projection.

I have not posted in this thread in a long time. My last post said something like I wish Airbus the best with the A350F. However, I'm not sure that it will work out economically. Time will tell. Note that I'm also not sure that an B77X-F will work out economically as well. I believe that both the A350F and B77XF are gambles. But, business is about taking educated gambles.

Have a great day,
Last edited by 2175301 on Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
Topic Author
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Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:05 pm

2175301 wrote:
LX321 wrote:
I recommend watching the video (perhaps the link is already posted here) of CEO Faury. The 350F is coming and no it is certainly beyond paper plane status. Otherwise, Faurys statement of an EIS in 2025 would be a public lie.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/29/a ... faury.html


I disagree on how much emphasis you are putting in a claimed EIS date.

The history of both Airbus and Boeing on EIS dates should tell you that it at best a hope.

The B787 had an initial Announced EIS Date. Was missed by many years.

The A350 initial announced concept with an EIS was botched so bad that they went back to the drawing board and came up with an entirely new A350 Concept with a new EIS. That was missed as well.

The A380 had an initial EIS, and was missed by years.

The A380F had an initial EIS, and was never produced even though it had a sizable number of orders.

The B77X had an intial EIS, and is currently years late.

If there is one thing I am reasonably sure of... That its most likely that the claimed EIS date for the A350F is likely wrong as well. That does not make it a lie. It's just a projection.

Have a great day,

You must also take into consideration. This is a variant. All those late EIS are new programs entirely
 
Daysleeper
Posts: 743
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2009 3:33 pm

Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:31 pm

Revelation wrote:
What I am saying here is pretty clear, I'm frustrated by the lack of information, and in particular the lack of expressions of interest by customers. If we knew more of the unknowns (length, number of containers, payload, range, cost) we could get a better idea of who might make a commitment to the program. In my world view, it all leads back to the customer, as per the first post of this thread months ago.

The founder of IBM had a saying "it all starts with the sale". Basically, "no pay, no play", or at least not much play. It only gets serious when money changes hands. That's a big part of my world view, even though I am an engineer not a salesman. I find the whole process fascinating. If I may exaggerate a bit, I find the whole idea that people should be shut up and be happy that a new shiny thing is being created to be simplistic and boring, but I understand others have different world views so I don't spend time criticizing their posts, I just move on.


You may well be frustrated by a lack of information, as are we all. However, if you were in a position to order such an aircraft I highly doubt this would be the case. You would have all the information you need.

As frustrating as it maybe, this is what gives Airbus the advantage. They have an already have a successful product in the A350 and they don’t really need a freighter version to make it into the green. Instead just floating the idea of a freighter is going to put its competition in a really tough spot by forcing them to compete on price with a possible XF, and thus severely limiting the chances of the entire 77X project to make a dime. And all Airbus had to do, is simply offer a variant of the A350 that had been planned from the outset. Essentially costing them nothing.

In regards to quoting the founder of IBM, well there could be no greater irony. A company which through its engineering brilliance managed to attain a near perfect global monopoly within the computer segment, but with a lack of foresight and bad management is now nothing more than a distant memory within the computer sector producing obsolete big iron systems for a very limited customer base. For the reasons outlined above, Airbus do not need to sell the A350F, they just need to ensure the market knows its available.

Revelation wrote:

I honestly do not understand why asking such questions gets labeled as being a negative attitude. I think that perception just indicates people just have different world views. Some get uncomfortable when questions are asked, others are okay with it and accept it as a part of the process, some find the process of questioning adds a lot of value to the process so they embrace it. As a famous executive once said, "If we're all thinking alike, none of us are thinking!".

Indeed, the world would be a very boring place if we all thought alike. I think the negative attitude label is down to constantly posting arguments against such a project that don’t hold water. Such as how impractical it would be due to ramp space constraints. Or the desperation of Airbus to garner orders, or that RR engines could never fly fright.. and then the whole linguistics rubbish “To launch or not to launch” that is the question.

Well they don’t need to “Launch” with orders, as has been said just offering it is enough.

A Side note: PEACE! Its these types of debates I love the most about this forum, please don’t think my pushing back on your views of the aviation industry is in anyway an attack on you. I both respect and enjoy your posts…but not quite as much as I love a good debate :)
 
morrisond
Posts: 3497
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: A350F. Airbus looking to launch: Looking for customers

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:38 pm

jagraham wrote:
flipdewaf wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Anyway. It’s not certification that will be the determinant of failure or success.

Indeed, it’s about whether the payload-range with an increased OWE and ‘specific range’ increase in can still be competitive given the relatively low utilisation skewing costs towards reduced capital vs reduced fuel burn compared to the pax variant. Both the 77XF and the A350F share this self same problem to a degree but the carrot here is that the next generation of wide bodies will suffer even worse with this and may well be completely uncompetitive giving the ‘victor’ from this a long standing role in this market.

In my view Boeing should have just slapped the Ge9x on the 77W/L/F and called it a day. The A350F would not compete with that IMHO.

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Im a little late, but I believe the new 77X wing is what allowed the ~10% thrust reduction.

They did run the GE9X to a thrust level well above the GE90-115 level, so conceivably thrust could be bumped up to 110K or 115K to support the old planes.

A strong case could be made for a 777 Longer Range family with 110K engines and 10% less fuel capacity; about the same range for 10% less. Would it have been competitive versus the A359 and especially the A35J? But pax airplanes is a different question

Certainly freighters are much more capex sensitive; just attaching the new engine to the old airframe would have saved a lot of money. But would the freighter survive alone? Especially versus a viable A35J derived freighter? Because the old airframe with the new engines would be a wash against the A350 lineup at best.

But on the other hand, would the A350F survive against the pricing Boeing could provide with a 777MAX lineup? My guess is that Boeing didn't think so; otherwise they should have done a 777MAX and waited on a new wing. But I could be wrong . . . comments welcome.


77F has Engines Derated to 110K and Ge9x has 110K at takeoff. It should not be much of an issue.
 
morrisond
Posts: 3497
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 12:22 am

Re: Updated: Reuters: Airbus launches A350 freighter

Fri Aug 20, 2021 6:51 pm

2175301 wrote:
LX321 wrote:
I recommend watching the video (perhaps the link is already posted here) of CEO Faury. The 350F is coming and no it is certainly beyond paper plane status. Otherwise, Faurys statement of an EIS in 2025 would be a public lie.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/07/29/a ... faury.html


I disagree on how much emphasis you are putting in a claimed EIS date.

The history of both Airbus and Boeing on EIS dates should tell you that it at best a hope.

The B787 had an initial Announced EIS Date. Was missed by many years.

The A350 initial announced concept with an EIS was botched so bad that they went back to the drawing board and came up with an entirely new A350 Concept with a new EIS. That was missed as well.

The A380 had an initial EIS, and was missed by years.

The A380F had an initial EIS, and was never produced even though it had a sizable number of orders.

The B77X had an intial EIS, and is currently years late.

If there is one thing I am reasonably sure of... That its most likely that the claimed EIS date for the A350F is likely wrong as well. That does not make it a lie. It's just a projection.

I have not posted in this thread in a long time. My last post said something like I wish Airbus the best with the A350F. However, I'm not sure that it will work out economically. Time will tell. Note that I'm also not sure that an B77X-F will work out economically as well. I believe that both the A350F and B77XF are gambles. But, business is about taking educated gambles.

Have a great day,


I would agree with all this.

The only way they make 2025 EIS is if 350F is not a custom length, which would not be the craziest idea.

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