https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN2B41NA

Reports coming out that Airbus looking to come for Boeing’s freighter business and seems to be marketing a potential Freighter version of the a350. It is looking for customers that will commit.

Analyst say they will probably want about 50 units to launch

Development costs will be about 2-3 billion

VN is looking for some good freighters in 2023-2025 or up to 2028 (long-term ops)

There were murmurs about this back in 2019 before Covid. The most interesting part of the article for me is this:

The latest design on the drawing board at Airbus’s Toulouse headquarters in France involves a slightly longer aircraft than the best-selling Airbus A350-900 jetliner.

I wonder if we will see a simple stretch passenger A350-950, since the -1000 hasn’t been the biggest of hits.

Not sure if the wide body cargo segment is big enough to support both the 777xf and the A350F. Does anybody know the basis (A350-900 or 1000)? The article does not mention it.

Considering that there will be plenty of second hand 777-300's available at attractive prices for freighter conversions, this might not be the best time to launch a A350 cargo variant.

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

JonesNL wrote:

Not sure if the wide body cargo segment is big enough to support both the 777xf and the A350F.

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

Wasn´t there a FedEX corporate jet spotted in Toulouse last year?

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.

There was talk of a stretched A339F a few years ago, around Amazon's needs, which came to nothing - unless Airbus are still showing that alongside an A350F concept to test market appetite one against the other.

I imagine using the 339 as the base would be quicker as well as cheaper, both in development cost and selling price, so a focus on 359 suggests a commitment to freighters over the longer term. It aims directly at the 777F sector which has proved a good fit for many operators.

https://simpleflying.com/amazon-airbus- ... freighter/

VSMUT wrote:

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...

Polot wrote:

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.

Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

The a330F doesn't really add much that the market doesn't already have. The a350F is a next gen ahead of any current freighter product and would be competing against a hypothetical 777XF

Rifitto wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...

Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.

VSMUT wrote:

Polot wrote:

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.

Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.

That’s when they reached production break even (received more money from A350 deliveries then spent on program that year). They only broke even on a per frame basis in 2018. They didn’t suddenly earn back €10 billion in profit form the program in a year.

VSMUT wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

Not sure if the wide body cargo segment is big enough to support both the 777xf and the A350F.

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

Dramatic. Relax, there are many questions to ask. Can it lift more? How far will it go? What’s the efficiency compared to the potential 8F? What is the pricing like? Can they come in cheaper than the 8F. Even to the current 777F? Boeing probably has the flexibility to price this thing off the market. So just relax first

This is cargo business not passenger business two very different models here. It’s not all about composite

VSMUT wrote:

Rifitto wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...

Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.

I think that's cart before the horse or wishful thinking.

VSMUT wrote:

Rifitto wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...

Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.

Ah. Since it’s such a home run, they should launch it now, what are they waiting for?

Even to add to my previous post. Let us not forget we have seen propositions (Boeing slides) on a 788 MTOW 777-8, which will make it more capable

Opus99 wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

Not sure if the wide body cargo segment is big enough to support both the 777xf and the A350F.

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

Dramatic. Relax, there are many questions to ask. Can it lift more? How far will it go? What’s the efficiency compared to the potential 8F? What is the pricing like? Can they come in cheaper than the 8F. Even to the current 777F? Boeing probably has the flexibility to price this thing off the market. So just relax first

Boeing sold 242 777-200Fs. That's the realistic market you can expect. The next new-built freighter will have to compete for this market with the 777-300ERSF, used 777-200F and to an extent the A330-300P2F. That's not enough to justify 2 new builds.

VSMUT wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

VSMUT wrote:

It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.

Dramatic. Relax, there are many questions to ask. Can it lift more? How far will it go? What’s the efficiency compared to the potential 8F? What is the pricing like? Can they come in cheaper than the 8F. Even to the current 777F? Boeing probably has the flexibility to price this thing off the market. So just relax first

Boeing sold 242 777-200Fs. That's the realistic market you can expect. The next new-built freighter will have to compete for this market with the 777-300ERSF, used 777-200F and to an extent the A330-300P2F. That's not enough to justify 2 new builds.

Assuming this one can even move what the 777F is moving. They are a lot of unanswered questions that make your conclusion...well moot

Opus99 wrote:

Assuming this one can even move what the 777F is moving.

That is irrelevant. If it gets only 2/3 the amount the 777F did, then only a third of the prospective market is left for the 777-8F. The same goes in reverse of course, but it does look like Airbus is closer to launching right now.

Polot wrote:

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.

A shrunk A350-1000 has the payload at range the market demands.

My back of the envelope calculations say an A338F would just have enough range for mid-West US to westernmost Europe, a much smaller market than even 1000 nm more range, in my opinion.

Lightsaber

VSMUT wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

Assuming this one can even move what the 777F is moving.

That is irrelevant. If it gets only 2/3 the amount the 777F did, then only a third of the prospective market is left for the 777-8F. The same goes in reverse of course, but it does look like Airbus is closer to launching right now.

It’s not irrelevant. You don’t seem to understand that this aircraft will be competing with the 777F too. What market share will it collect, if operators are still interested in the 777F because of its lift and probably favourable pricing over this? Talk less of XF. Oh so you think because it’s new it will magically absorb market share. Please let’s not get overexcited

They’ve also been ready to launch it right now since 2019...

https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-lau ... r-program/

Would also point you all to this article

I think what we are seeing is that AB would like a bit of what Boeing gets out of its freighter line and decided to have a serious go at joining the party. In recent months this has been effectively keeping Boeing going, why would a builder of large planes not want a piece of this. If they succeed that's a different matter we will see.

VSMUT wrote:

Polot wrote:

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.

Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.

the break even in the 2019 means every frame is sold for more than it cost to build ,
it doesn't mean they earned back the 15+ billions spent on the program ,you can't do it by selling 300 aircraft only

VSMUT wrote:

Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.

The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.

i don't see what the USAF contract have to do with the freight market conversation ,
the B767 is simply better ,it outperformed and outsold the a300 ,it the reason why it's still in production ,there is no discussion about it

In the other hand the a350 size is close to the b772 , but the later has greater MTOW and MFZ hence more payload / range than the 350 ,

and it's smaller than the 778 which is 3m longer ,have 35 cm wider fuselage and + 77 tons higher MTOW , that's a lot of weight and volume difference

,you can't put them in the same basket , So NO ,the 350f won't kill the 77XF since these are two different aircraft aiming two different missions
unlike the 767 and the a300 which have very close specs

Let us not forget. Qatar airways already offered to be 777XF launch customer back in 2019. It seemed as though it was Boeing who was not ready.

Again a few back we got an article that Qatar is actively waiting for Boeing to share their 777XF plans and they’re considering both 350F and 777XF.

VSMUT wrote:

Polot wrote:

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.

Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.

They broke even on a cost-of-production basis in 2019.

That doesn't mean it paid back its original investment, nor the delta it took to develop the -1000.

Given the lower volume of production in the covid era, it could now be back in the red.

Exeiowa wrote:

I think what we are seeing is that AB would like a bit of what Boeing gets out of its freighter line and decided to have a serious go at joining the party. In recent months this has been effectively keeping Boeing going, why would a builder of large planes not want a piece of this. If they succeed that's a different matter we will see.

Agree with this. It makes a lot of sense that they are launching this.

This is a low cost investment with high upside. But there are no guarantees of major success or pushing the competition out either.

Personally, I am glad that they are launching this vs the a330neo F.

Opus99 wrote:

https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/

Would also point you all to this article

Interesting chart:



It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.

The major operational difference between passengers aircaft and freighters are the higher MZF weights, causing an increase in wing bending moment and fuselage bending.
So a possible A350F fuselage has to be structurally reinforced, especialy the center wing box and all changes will increase the ownership costs.
.
Due high fuselage bending loads, a possible A350-1000F seems less optimal for general cargo (with a normal/high cargo density)

Freighter maintenance :
Add hoc A350F fuselage structural repairs will also increase, due accidents that will happen during loading and unloading of large cargo items. especially (cargo)door frames, cargo doors and fuselage panels will be damaged in daily operations. So a (composite) material change or reinforcement at these high risk positions seems prudent. Composite structural repairs are possible, but require more skilled technicians and specialist (expensive) equipment, normally not always available at remote airfields. Alu fuselage panels/frames are easier to repair on the spot.

See for A350 composite back ground info : https://www.icas.org/media/pdf/ICAS%20C ... ualdes.pdf

I thought Airbus doesn't do program accounting. How do we know since when the A350 sells for more than what it costs to produce? Anybody has a link?

Revelation wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/

Would also point you all to this article

Interesting chart:



It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.

Interesting chart (although I don't think that the 772F has a max payload of 109 metric tonnes, rather 102) but we don't know yet what the A350F will be. Besides the two simplistic options presented on this chart, there is also the possibility to shrink the A351 in order to retain its 316 (or 319?) tonnes MTOW. It all depends on what the market demands: a new high density freighter (that would challenge the 772F) or an efficient low density freighter (but the 773ERSF seems well suited for this role).

I had estimated that a 316t A350F with the length of the A359 could carry the same max payload as the 772F over the same range (5000nm) while burning about 25% less fuel. The only potential issue I see is that retaining the 97klbs engine on a shrink as short as the A359 might be difficult to achieve with the current VTP. That could be the reason why we now hear about a freighter slightly longer than the A359. It would also make it just as long as the assumed 778 (for which Boeing could still decide to modify the proposed length). Another uncertainty is how high the A350F MLW could be? This is also a limiting factor for the max payload.

Sokes wrote:

I thought Airbus doesn't do program accounting. How do we know since when the A350 sells for more than what it costs to produce? Anybody has a link?

We know because Airbus tells us.

https://leehamnews.com/2019/02/14/airbu ... lean-deck/

Another highlight was the A350 will go cash positive during the year (as planned) but it was cash positive already 2018 on an aircraft level according to Wilhelm (R&D overhead kept it from the black in 2018).

https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-r ... sults.html

The breakeven target for the A350 was achieved in 2019

There are super uncertainties. 3D printing not only changes the economics of planes, it also will affect where things are manufactured. Robotic the same. This could mean a lot more manufacturing close to customers. In 5 years those 'old' 787s and 350s may become ripe for conversion to freighters. Sane US economic policies will almost certainly see a lot of manufacturing repatriated. Economic tigers may arise in Central and South America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Ten million electric vehicles a year plus the possibility of green aviation fuel and carbon capture will do strange things to oil prices and production. In times of progress creating instability and change keeping options open, and cash on hand becomes the appr strategy.

frmrCapCadet wrote:

There are super uncertainties. 3D printing not only changes the economics of planes, it also will affect where things are manufactured. Robotic the same. This could mean a lot more manufacturing close to customers. In 5 years those 'old' 787s and 350s may become ripe for conversion to freighters. Sane US economic policies will almost certainly see a lot of manufacturing repatriated. Economic tigers may arise in Central and South America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Ten million electric vehicles a year plus the possibility of green aviation fuel and carbon capture will do strange things to oil prices and production. In times of progress creating instability and change keeping options open, and cash on hand becomes the appr strategy.

Entering the freighter market in the time frame one would think is appropriate for designing, manufacturing and testing an A350F seems to be dubious timing. A large number of end-of-line 777Fs have been sold, not to mention new and converted 767F. All that is out there now, and if we see international travel recover in the next two years, so will lots of 787/777/A350 bellies returning to the market. Then add in that the 77W conversion is under active development. A rumored 764F may become a factor too. Hard to see much room for a new entrant. Sources says they will need a major integrator to sign up with a "sizeable" order, according to the cargofacts article linked above. It's hard to see where that will be coming from, unless they make deals very sweet indeed.

Revelation wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

There are super uncertainties. 3D printing not only changes the economics of planes, it also will affect where things are manufactured. Robotic the same. This could mean a lot more manufacturing close to customers. In 5 years those 'old' 787s and 350s may become ripe for conversion to freighters. Sane US economic policies will almost certainly see a lot of manufacturing repatriated. Economic tigers may arise in Central and South America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Ten million electric vehicles a year plus the possibility of green aviation fuel and carbon capture will do strange things to oil prices and production. In times of progress creating instability and change keeping options open, and cash on hand becomes the appr strategy.

Entering the freighter market in the time frame one would think is appropriate for designing, manufacturing and testing an A350F seems to be dubious timing. A large number of end-of-line 777Fs have been sold, not to mention new and converted 767F. All that is out there now, and if we see international travel recover in the next two years, so will lots of 787/777/A350 bellies returning to the market. Then add in that the 77W conversion is under active development. A rumored 764F may become a factor too. Hard to see much room for a new entrant. Sources says they will need a major integrator to sign up with a "sizeable" order, according to the cargofacts article linked above. It's hard to see where that will be coming from, unless they make deals very sweet indeed.

I don't think the 764 will be a factor.....not enough feedstock. There are many 763's in the process of conversion as well. We simply do not know how long the current boom in freight is going to last, so I do think you are absolutely right on the timing issue.

I think this is a good step in Airbus product line planning. For anyone with a widebody program, it is highly recommended to have a freighter variant and freighter conversion plan waiting in the file cabinet for when the time calls. It may take a long time to come about, but it's an additional revenue opportunity that shouldn't be forgotten.

But yeah, it's a tight market and if this A350F intends to go head-to-head on specs against 777-300ERSF, then it might not go well due to capital costs.

While I agree that some A350F would be an attack on the 777F it would kill the A330F as well. And that last one is intended to be kept running. It is already down to rate two a month. So if there is no big customer like UPS or Amazon or similar I don't see it happening now.

There has been some sort of a slow demand for the 747-8F which seems to indicate big air cargo and express cargo companies prefer more twins. Possibly some market is brewing?

fcogafa wrote:

Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter

Not to take the discussion off on a tangent, isn't it that the a330f in ceo mode failed in the market place because it is too large (compared to the 767) but carries poorly (compared to the 777). Perhaps Airbus believes that better engines will not sufficiently address the core shortcomings of the A330 frame.

Back to the topic, best wishes to Airbus if indeed it is true. The A350 freighter will go against formidable opposition.

ILNFlyer wrote:

Revelation wrote:

frmrCapCadet wrote:

There are super uncertainties. 3D printing not only changes the economics of planes, it also will affect where things are manufactured. Robotic the same. This could mean a lot more manufacturing close to customers. In 5 years those 'old' 787s and 350s may become ripe for conversion to freighters. Sane US economic policies will almost certainly see a lot of manufacturing repatriated. Economic tigers may arise in Central and South America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Ten million electric vehicles a year plus the possibility of green aviation fuel and carbon capture will do strange things to oil prices and production. In times of progress creating instability and change keeping options open, and cash on hand becomes the appr strategy.

Entering the freighter market in the time frame one would think is appropriate for designing, manufacturing and testing an A350F seems to be dubious timing. A large number of end-of-line 777Fs have been sold, not to mention new and converted 767F. All that is out there now, and if we see international travel recover in the next two years, so will lots of 787/777/A350 bellies returning to the market. Then add in that the 77W conversion is under active development. A rumored 764F may become a factor too. Hard to see much room for a new entrant. Sources says they will need a major integrator to sign up with a "sizeable" order, according to the cargofacts article linked above. It's hard to see where that will be coming from, unless they make deals very sweet indeed.

I don't think the 764 will be a factor.....not enough feedstock. There are many 763's in the process of conversion as well. We simply do not know how long the current boom in freight is going to last, so I do think you are absolutely right on the timing issue.

The 764 is not a conversion, it is a new build.

Noshow wrote:

While I agree that some A350F would be an attack on the 777F it would kill the A330F as well.

Let’s be honest, the A330F doesn’t take much “killing”, it’s practically suicidal.

scbriml wrote:

Noshow wrote:

While I agree that some A350F would be an attack on the 777F it would kill the A330F as well.

Let’s be honest, the A330F doesn’t take much “killing”, it’s practically suicidal.

The A330F is already dead.

It has no outstanding orders and has not received one in 5-6 years.

ILNFlyer wrote:

I don't think the 764 will be a factor.....not enough feedstock. There are many 763's in the process of conversion as well. We simply do not know how long the current boom in freight is going to last, so I do think you are absolutely right on the timing issue.

Sorry, I should have clarified, I was referring to the rumored new-build 764F with GEnX engines. Could be part of a 764F/778F pincer offer to major integrators in the future.

Revelation wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/

Would also point you all to this article

Interesting chart:



It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.

Indeed. It also makes a good case for the 789F. Boeing, if it weren't for their troubles, should have launched that 2-3 years ago.

Maybe Airbus is in talks with UPS? UPS has stated about the need to find a replacement for the MD11. The A350 wingbox would have to beefed up for more domestic cycles,

TeamLH wrote:

Wasn´t there a FedEX corporate jet spotted in Toulouse last year?

it was probably to take delivery of the first ATR they ordered

Opus99 wrote:

Even to add to my previous post. Let us not forget we have seen propositions (Boeing slides) on a 788 MTOW 777-8, which will make it more capable

My back of the envelope calls say a 778klb MTOW (357.5t in 21st century money) 77XFwould allow it to match or just exceed the 77F in terms of absolute payload range(whilst burning less fuel of course).

I think airbus needs a shrunken A35k for the the freighter, like the 777X it’s lower fuel burn means that the higher max payload comes at a bigger cost in terms of MZFW range. The 777XF increased MTOW analogue for airbus already has significant engineering works completed.

Fred


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