Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
The latest design on the drawing board at Airbus’s Toulouse headquarters in France involves a slightly longer aircraft than the best-selling Airbus A350-900 jetliner.
JonesNL wrote:Not sure if the wide body cargo segment is big enough to support both the 777xf and the A350F.
fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
VSMUT wrote:It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.
Polot wrote:fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.
fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
Rifitto wrote:VSMUT wrote:It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.
The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...
VSMUT wrote:Polot wrote:fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.
Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.
VSMUT wrote:JonesNL wrote:Not sure if the wide body cargo segment is big enough to support both the 777xf and the A350F.
It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.
VSMUT wrote:Rifitto wrote:VSMUT wrote:It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.
The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...
Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.
The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.
VSMUT wrote:Rifitto wrote:VSMUT wrote:It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.
The same way the A33F killed the B772F , oh wait ...
Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.
The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.
Opus99 wrote:VSMUT wrote:JonesNL wrote:Not sure if the wide body cargo segment is big enough to support both the 777xf and the A350F.
It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.
Dramatic. Relax, there are many questions to ask. Can it lift more? How far will it go? What’s the efficiency compared to the potential 8F? What is the pricing like? Can they come in cheaper than the 8F. Even to the current 777F? Boeing probably has the flexibility to price this thing off the market. So just relax first
VSMUT wrote:Opus99 wrote:VSMUT wrote:
It isn't. This will kill the 777-8F before the 777-8 even comes to fruition.
Dramatic. Relax, there are many questions to ask. Can it lift more? How far will it go? What’s the efficiency compared to the potential 8F? What is the pricing like? Can they come in cheaper than the 8F. Even to the current 777F? Boeing probably has the flexibility to price this thing off the market. So just relax first
Boeing sold 242 777-200Fs. That's the realistic market you can expect. The next new-built freighter will have to compete for this market with the 777-300ERSF, used 777-200F and to an extent the A330-300P2F. That's not enough to justify 2 new builds.
Opus99 wrote:Assuming this one can even move what the 777F is moving.
Polot wrote:fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.
VSMUT wrote:Opus99 wrote:Assuming this one can even move what the 777F is moving.
That is irrelevant. If it gets only 2/3 the amount the 777F did, then only a third of the prospective market is left for the 777-8F. The same goes in reverse of course, but it does look like Airbus is closer to launching right now.
VSMUT wrote:Polot wrote:fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.
Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.
VSMUT wrote:
Yes, just like how the 767F took 15 years and a USAF contract to kill the A300F and A310F.
The A330-200F wasn't a 777 competitor, it was closer to a 767-300. The A350-900 is the same size as a 777-200. The market isn't big enough to sustain 2 identical freighters. If Airbus launches first, that's it for Boeing.
VSMUT wrote:Polot wrote:fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
Well Airbus spent billions more on the A350 program and needs to recuperate it.
Not that I disagree, but Airbus broke even on the A350 program in 2019.
Exeiowa wrote:I think what we are seeing is that AB would like a bit of what Boeing gets out of its freighter line and decided to have a serious go at joining the party. In recent months this has been effectively keeping Boeing going, why would a builder of large planes not want a piece of this. If they succeed that's a different matter we will see.
Opus99 wrote:https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/
Would also point you all to this article
Revelation wrote:Opus99 wrote:https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/
Would also point you all to this article
Interesting chart:
It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.
Sokes wrote:I thought Airbus doesn't do program accounting. How do we know since when the A350 sells for more than what it costs to produce? Anybody has a link?
Another highlight was the A350 will go cash positive during the year (as planned) but it was cash positive already 2018 on an aircraft level according to Wilhelm (R&D overhead kept it from the black in 2018).
The breakeven target for the A350 was achieved in 2019
frmrCapCadet wrote:There are super uncertainties. 3D printing not only changes the economics of planes, it also will affect where things are manufactured. Robotic the same. This could mean a lot more manufacturing close to customers. In 5 years those 'old' 787s and 350s may become ripe for conversion to freighters. Sane US economic policies will almost certainly see a lot of manufacturing repatriated. Economic tigers may arise in Central and South America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Ten million electric vehicles a year plus the possibility of green aviation fuel and carbon capture will do strange things to oil prices and production. In times of progress creating instability and change keeping options open, and cash on hand becomes the appr strategy.
Revelation wrote:frmrCapCadet wrote:There are super uncertainties. 3D printing not only changes the economics of planes, it also will affect where things are manufactured. Robotic the same. This could mean a lot more manufacturing close to customers. In 5 years those 'old' 787s and 350s may become ripe for conversion to freighters. Sane US economic policies will almost certainly see a lot of manufacturing repatriated. Economic tigers may arise in Central and South America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Ten million electric vehicles a year plus the possibility of green aviation fuel and carbon capture will do strange things to oil prices and production. In times of progress creating instability and change keeping options open, and cash on hand becomes the appr strategy.
Entering the freighter market in the time frame one would think is appropriate for designing, manufacturing and testing an A350F seems to be dubious timing. A large number of end-of-line 777Fs have been sold, not to mention new and converted 767F. All that is out there now, and if we see international travel recover in the next two years, so will lots of 787/777/A350 bellies returning to the market. Then add in that the 77W conversion is under active development. A rumored 764F may become a factor too. Hard to see much room for a new entrant. Sources says they will need a major integrator to sign up with a "sizeable" order, according to the cargofacts article linked above. It's hard to see where that will be coming from, unless they make deals very sweet indeed.
fcogafa wrote:Interesting that they are trying to bolster the A350 business in preference to an A330NEO freighter
ILNFlyer wrote:Revelation wrote:frmrCapCadet wrote:There are super uncertainties. 3D printing not only changes the economics of planes, it also will affect where things are manufactured. Robotic the same. This could mean a lot more manufacturing close to customers. In 5 years those 'old' 787s and 350s may become ripe for conversion to freighters. Sane US economic policies will almost certainly see a lot of manufacturing repatriated. Economic tigers may arise in Central and South America as well as Africa and the Middle East. Ten million electric vehicles a year plus the possibility of green aviation fuel and carbon capture will do strange things to oil prices and production. In times of progress creating instability and change keeping options open, and cash on hand becomes the appr strategy.
Entering the freighter market in the time frame one would think is appropriate for designing, manufacturing and testing an A350F seems to be dubious timing. A large number of end-of-line 777Fs have been sold, not to mention new and converted 767F. All that is out there now, and if we see international travel recover in the next two years, so will lots of 787/777/A350 bellies returning to the market. Then add in that the 77W conversion is under active development. A rumored 764F may become a factor too. Hard to see much room for a new entrant. Sources says they will need a major integrator to sign up with a "sizeable" order, according to the cargofacts article linked above. It's hard to see where that will be coming from, unless they make deals very sweet indeed.
I don't think the 764 will be a factor.....not enough feedstock. There are many 763's in the process of conversion as well. We simply do not know how long the current boom in freight is going to last, so I do think you are absolutely right on the timing issue.
Noshow wrote:While I agree that some A350F would be an attack on the 777F it would kill the A330F as well.
scbriml wrote:Noshow wrote:While I agree that some A350F would be an attack on the 777F it would kill the A330F as well.
Let’s be honest, the A330F doesn’t take much “killing”, it’s practically suicidal.
ILNFlyer wrote:I don't think the 764 will be a factor.....not enough feedstock. There are many 763's in the process of conversion as well. We simply do not know how long the current boom in freight is going to last, so I do think you are absolutely right on the timing issue.
Revelation wrote:Opus99 wrote:https://cargofacts.com/airbus-nears-launch-of-a350-freighter-program/
Would also point you all to this article
Interesting chart:
It makes a really good case... for buying a 777-300ERSF.
TeamLH wrote:Wasn´t there a FedEX corporate jet spotted in Toulouse last year?
Opus99 wrote:Even to add to my previous post. Let us not forget we have seen propositions (Boeing slides) on a 788 MTOW 777-8, which will make it more capable