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MUCFan
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:04 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I think IAG is opening this up to see if Airbus can match. It will be a very tough competition but both have strong merits. But even the fact that competition is open to BOTH is interesting. I don’t think it has for a long time on the narrow body front.

Boeing might sell a right foot for this business because they now the clout it will bring. Even if it gets split up between the two. That’s enough of a win.

But prospectively where can IAG place 200 MAX jets.

I’ve heard Heathrow has a problem with connections and uncontainrised baggage. Personally I think that is ridiculous for an airport like that. How can you not handle containerised baggage? If they can’t. Can it be introduced? And if can be introduced can it be the MAX be the mainstay of BA?

Bear in mind. BA allowed 70 a320neo options expire not to long ago.

Let’s see.


Bear also in mind that regardless of whether IAG orders 737s or not the A320 family was, is and will be the mainstay of IAG considering the sheer number of units in operation and to be delivered.
 
VS11
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:06 pm

Opus99 wrote:

But prospectively where can IAG place 200 MAX jets.

Let’s see.


200 airplanes is indeed a significant number. But there are many reasons why IAG might want to order them. Reason #1 for me is inflation. While this is just in the UK, it is 3% for the year ending August 2021 - https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflatio ... august2021 . So the aircraft prices will likely go up due to inflation.
Reason #2 - energy/oil prices will likely be rising in the coming years as the global economy continues to gear up so demand for more economical aircraft will increase.
Reason #3 - still low interest rates to finance aircraft purchase.
Reason #4 - attractive pricing that was likely offered at the time.
 
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scbriml
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:23 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
"Among other European prospects, British Airways parent IAG has reopened a fresh competition between Airbus and Boeing for narrowbody jets, revisiting a large provisional order for 200 MAX jets that was never finalised, the sources said."

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/air ... 26124.html

It seems IAG MAX LOI is dead and buried.

Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.

You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?

Can somebody else explain this to me


If the uncontested LOI was alive and well, then IAG could just firm it. But that hasn't happened, and now they've started a new competition. It's not unreasonable to say the original LOI is dead and buried. It's very possible that it's expired anyway, as it was signed over two years ago.
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:24 pm

MUCFan wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I think IAG is opening this up to see if Airbus can match. It will be a very tough competition but both have strong merits. But even the fact that competition is open to BOTH is interesting. I don’t think it has for a long time on the narrow body front.

Boeing might sell a right foot for this business because they now the clout it will bring. Even if it gets split up between the two. That’s enough of a win.

But prospectively where can IAG place 200 MAX jets.

I’ve heard Heathrow has a problem with connections and uncontainrised baggage. Personally I think that is ridiculous for an airport like that. How can you not handle containerised baggage? If they can’t. Can it be introduced? And if can be introduced can it be the MAX be the mainstay of BA?

Bear in mind. BA allowed 70 a320neo options expire not to long ago.

Let’s see.


Bear also in mind that regardless of whether IAG orders 737s or not the A320 family was, is and will be the mainstay of IAG considering the sheer number of units in operation and to be delivered.

Of course it will be. The 320 has the existing infrastructure and airbus knows they have airlines on lockdown in the group that Boeing does not even have or can almost never have. I.e Iberia and Aer lingus.
Last edited by Opus99 on Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:25 pm

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
"Among other European prospects, British Airways parent IAG has reopened a fresh competition between Airbus and Boeing for narrowbody jets, revisiting a large provisional order for 200 MAX jets that was never finalised, the sources said."

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/air ... 26124.html

It seems IAG MAX LOI is dead and buried.

Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.

You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?

Can somebody else explain this to me


If the uncontested LOI was alive and well, then IAG could just firm it. But that hasn't happened, and now they've started a new competition. It's not unreasonable to say the original LOI is dead and buried. It's very possible that it's expired anyway, as it was signed over two years ago.

That makes sense. But do you agree it will be bad business for it to be uncontested? I think the LOI can be alive and well and still be contested. It doesn’t mean it has to be dead and buried
 
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scbriml
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:39 pm

VS11 wrote:
Reason #1 for me is inflation. While this is just in the UK, it is 3% for the year ending August 2021 - https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflatio ... august2021 . So the aircraft prices will likely go up due to inflation.


The contract would include price inflation clauses - signing a deal for 200 planes today won't mean paying 'today's price' when the last plane is delivered. Even taking 40 planes a year would mean at least five years between order and last delivery. The prices will still rise accordingly.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:50 pm

Opus99 wrote:

I’ve heard Heathrow has a problem with connections and uncontainrised baggage. Personally I think that is ridiculous for an airport like that. How can you not handle containerised baggage? If they can’t. Can it be introduced? And if can be introduced can it be the MAX be the mainstay of BA?



It is not a problem, it is just really inefficient to handle bulk loaded baggage at T5. See it like this, you can do it, the same way you can pump fuel from a pipeline into barrels, load the barrels onto a truck, drive to the destination, and then unload and empty every single barrel manually into the fuel tank, or you actually use a fuel truck, skipping all the steps involving the barrels.
 
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scbriml
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:54 pm

Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.

You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?

Can somebody else explain this to me


If the uncontested LOI was alive and well, then IAG could just firm it. But that hasn't happened, and now they've started a new competition. It's not unreasonable to say the original LOI is dead and buried. It's very possible that it's expired anyway, as it was signed over two years ago.

That makes sense. But do you agree it will be bad business for it to be uncontested? I think the LOI can be alive and well and still be contested. It doesn’t mean it has to be dead and buried


Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:01 pm

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

If the uncontested LOI was alive and well, then IAG could just firm it. But that hasn't happened, and now they've started a new competition. It's not unreasonable to say the original LOI is dead and buried. It's very possible that it's expired anyway, as it was signed over two years ago.

That makes sense. But do you agree it will be bad business for it to be uncontested? I think the LOI can be alive and well and still be contested. It doesn’t mean it has to be dead and buried


Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.

This one is different because there’s an LOI involved. In southwest or Ryanair there’s nothing but talk and rumours. That’s what makes this different.

Also WW says his biggest regret was actually not buying the 737.


https://youtu.be/pZPbSjb7wWQ
 
phxa340
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:08 pm

Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That makes sense. But do you agree it will be bad business for it to be uncontested? I think the LOI can be alive and well and still be contested. It doesn’t mean it has to be dead and buried


Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.

This one is different because there’s an LOI involved. In southwest or Ryanair there’s nothing but talk and rumours. That’s what makes this different.

Also WW says his biggest regret was actually not buying the 737.


https://youtu.be/pZPbSjb7wWQ


No one is bringing up politics but with the recent developments (AUKUS) , I’m sure there is ample political pressure to buy US Vs EU … rightfully or wrongly … UK is becoming closer to the US and not the EU.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:33 pm

phxa340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.

This one is different because there’s an LOI involved. In southwest or Ryanair there’s nothing but talk and rumours. That’s what makes this different.

Also WW says his biggest regret was actually not buying the 737.


https://youtu.be/pZPbSjb7wWQ


No one is bringing up politics but with the recent developments (AUKUS) , I’m sure there is ample political pressure to buy US Vs EU … rightfully or wrongly … UK is becoming closer to the US and not the EU.


Just a bit bad that IAG is actually run by Spanish guys and has is registered in Spain. So that pendulum would be more in EUs favor. Also all airlines except BA are actually EU airlines.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:37 pm

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
"Among other European prospects, British Airways parent IAG has reopened a fresh competition between Airbus and Boeing for narrowbody jets, revisiting a large provisional order for 200 MAX jets that was never finalised, the sources said."

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/air ... 26124.html

It seems IAG MAX LOI is dead and buried.

Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.

You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?

Can somebody else explain this to me


If the uncontested LOI was alive and well, then IAG could just firm it. But that hasn't happened, and now they've started a new competition. It's not unreasonable to say the original LOI is dead and buried. It's very possible that it's expired anyway, as it was signed over two years ago.


It is also possible that the terms in the LOI aren’t as favorable as those that could be negotiated now. Prices may be lower and available delivery dates may have changed too.
 
phxa340
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:50 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
This one is different because there’s an LOI involved. In southwest or Ryanair there’s nothing but talk and rumours. That’s what makes this different.

Also WW says his biggest regret was actually not buying the 737.


https://youtu.be/pZPbSjb7wWQ


No one is bringing up politics but with the recent developments (AUKUS) , I’m sure there is ample political pressure to buy US Vs EU … rightfully or wrongly … UK is becoming closer to the US and not the EU.


Just a bit bad that IAG is actually run by Spanish guys and has is registered in Spain. So that pendulum would be more in EUs favor. Also all airlines except BA are actually EU airlines.


The CEO is Irish I thought ? … but the fact that the C-Suite is in Spain doesn’t matter IMO , it is still a “national” airline subject to government lobbying based on global considerations. I’m not saying it will … just that it is more probably than not probable.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:02 pm

phxa340 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
phxa340 wrote:

No one is bringing up politics but with the recent developments (AUKUS) , I’m sure there is ample political pressure to buy US Vs EU … rightfully or wrongly … UK is becoming closer to the US and not the EU.


Just a bit bad that IAG is actually run by Spanish guys and has is registered in Spain. So that pendulum would be more in EUs favor. Also all airlines except BA are actually EU airlines.


The CEO is Irish I thought ? … but the fact that the C-Suite is in Spain doesn’t matter IMO , it is still a “national” airline subject to government lobbying based on global considerations. I’m not saying it will … just that it is more probably than not probable.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Gallego

The decision will solely be based on the best interest for the group, I do not think any politics will have an influence (at least it should not). The whole UK vs EU will not have an influence just because IAG has nothing to do with the UK in regards to its structure. It might be listed in London on the stock exchange but it is a European company. One of its subsidiaries might be from the UK but that is all. For all legal purposes it is a Spanish company.

The CEO of BA is Irish.
 
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scbriml
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:23 pm

Opus99 wrote:
This one is different because there’s an LOI involved.


If the LOI (without competition) was good enough for IAG to sign in mid-June 2019 and was still valid, why wouldn't they just firm it?

It's my belief the LOI has since expired and IAG management now sees the benefit of having a competition this time. It's a clean slate for everyone, IMHO.
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:27 pm

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
This one is different because there’s an LOI involved.


If the LOI (without competition) was good enough for IAG to sign in mid-June 2019 and was still valid, why wouldn't they just firm it?

It's my belief the LOI has since expired and IAG management now sees the benefit of having a competition this time. It's a clean slate for everyone, IMHO.

I agree. I’m just saying the LOI is the factor that made it different from when Ryanair or southwest are buying aircraft. Ultimately like you pointed out that LOI may have well expired but it’s the LOI that makes people look at it differently
 
skipness1E
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:39 pm

FluidFlow wrote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_GallegoIt might be listed in London on the stock exchange but it is a European company. One of its subsidiaries might be from the UK but that is all. For all legal purposes it is a Spanish company.


BA is also a European company, details matter, don't conflate the EU with Europe, very slack!
 
Pendennis
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:44 pm

Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
This one is different because there’s an LOI involved.


If the LOI (without competition) was good enough for IAG to sign in mid-June 2019 and was still valid, why wouldn't they just firm it?

It's my belief the LOI has since expired and IAG management now sees the benefit of having a competition this time. It's a clean slate for everyone, IMHO.

I agree. I’m just saying the LOI is the factor that made it different from when Ryanair or southwest are buying aircraft. Ultimately like you pointed out that LOI may have well expired but it’s the LOI that makes people look at it differently


I think only some Anet posters may look at it differently. I'm pretty sure Boeing made WW an unbelievable offer on 200 Maxs and WW bit, there was certainly a time limit on that offer which is likely to have come and gone.

To integrate the MAX into the BA fleet would need a major reconfiguration of T5; it was designed for containerised baggage and whilst it can cope with the odd non-containerised aircraft, to cater with the majority of its movements bulk loaded is a completely different problem. The only way I can see the MAX adopted into IAG is if a new LCC is set up at Gatwick and elsewhere, and it, Air Europa and Vueling were to operate the MAX. In that case the current Vueling fleet and any current orders would be switched to BA/IB/EI. Problem is the Vueling NEOs are P&W powered but would that be an insurmountable problem?
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:55 pm

Pendennis wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

If the LOI (without competition) was good enough for IAG to sign in mid-June 2019 and was still valid, why wouldn't they just firm it?

It's my belief the LOI has since expired and IAG management now sees the benefit of having a competition this time. It's a clean slate for everyone, IMHO.

I agree. I’m just saying the LOI is the factor that made it different from when Ryanair or southwest are buying aircraft. Ultimately like you pointed out that LOI may have well expired but it’s the LOI that makes people look at it differently


I think only some Anet posters may look at it differently. I'm pretty sure Boeing made WW an unbelievable offer on 200 Maxs and WW bit, there was certainly a time limit on that offer which is likely to have come and gone.

To integrate the MAX into the BA fleet would need a major reconfiguration of T5; it was designed for containerised baggage and whilst it can cope with the odd non-containerised aircraft, to cater with the majority of its movements bulk loaded is a completely different problem. The only way I can see the MAX adopted into IAG is if a new LCC is set up at Gatwick and elsewhere, and it, Air Europa and Vueling were to operate the MAX. In that case the current Vueling fleet and any current orders would be switched to BA/IB/EI. Problem is the Vueling NEOs are P&W powered but would that be an insurmountable problem?

To be honest, never say never. We have seen airlines switching from A to B vv. SilkAir (RIP), Air Canada, Ural Airlines (flying A320neo at the same time) have all done it. If the bean counters are punching those calculators correctly, everything is possible. Southwest Airlines still place a bucketload of MAX order even though they heavily criticised Boeing on how they handled the whole MAX debacle. Money makes the world move......
 
FluidFlow
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 3:00 pm

skipness1E wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_GallegoIt might be listed in London on the stock exchange but it is a European company. One of its subsidiaries might be from the UK but that is all. For all legal purposes it is a Spanish company.


BA is also a European company, details matter, don't conflate the EU with Europe, very slack!


True my bad should have been more specific.

On a side note, is there actually an adjective describing a company based in the EU?
 
phxa340
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:11 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

Just a bit bad that IAG is actually run by Spanish guys and has is registered in Spain. So that pendulum would be more in EUs favor. Also all airlines except BA are actually EU airlines.


The CEO is Irish I thought ? … but the fact that the C-Suite is in Spain doesn’t matter IMO , it is still a “national” airline subject to government lobbying based on global considerations. I’m not saying it will … just that it is more probably than not probable.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Gallego

The decision will solely be based on the best interest for the group, I do not think any politics will have an influence (at least it should not). The whole UK vs EU will not have an influence just because IAG has nothing to do with the UK in regards to its structure. It might be listed in London on the stock exchange but it is a European company. One of its subsidiaries might be from the UK but that is all. For all legal purposes it is a Spanish company.

The CEO of BA is Irish.


Right but “what is best for the company” is a ton of different data points … sometimes appeasing a politician is exactly what is best for the airline.

Again not saying this will happen … but I’m sure there will be lobbying from politicians regardless.
 
bx737
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:30 pm

Pendennis wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

In that case the current Vueling fleet and any current orders would be switched to BA/IB/EI. Problem is the Vueling NEOs are P&W powered but would that be an insurmountable problem?


It is interesting to note that Aer Lingus has the CFM Leap engines on their A321neo LRs. This doesn’t seem to cause an issue currently within the IAG Group.
 
oschkosch
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:49 pm

For me personally the LOI was just a kind gesture by Walsh to Boeing in a time of need for good publicity.
 
marcelh
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:49 pm

skipness1E wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_GallegoIt might be listed in London on the stock exchange but it is a European company. One of its subsidiaries might be from the UK but that is all. For all legal purposes it is a Spanish company.


BA is also a European company, details matter, don't conflate the EU with Europe, very slack!

And wings for the A320 family are built in the UK….
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:56 pm

oschkosch wrote:
For me personally the LOI was just a kind gesture by Walsh to Boeing in a time of need for good publicity.

Except at the start of 2019 Walsh said they want to do more business with Boeing on the 737 and were looking at it in the long term
 
9252fly
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:57 pm

Is it conceivable that BA may be looking to Airbus for mix of A320 and A220?
 
Opus99
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 4:57 pm

9252fly wrote:
Is it conceivable that BA may be looking to Airbus for mix of A320 and A220?

For sure that’s possible. I won’t count it out. 220 for LCY though
 
flash330
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:10 pm

Opus99 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
For me personally the LOI was just a kind gesture by Walsh to Boeing in a time of need for good publicity.

Except at the start of 2019 Walsh said they want to do more business with Boeing on the 737 and were looking at it in the long term


Yeah, seemed crazy to me to reward a company with so many issues at the time with an order for 200 planes. If Samsung had loads of issues with their phones I would not be rushing out to buy one until they fixed the problems

I also don't understand the regret of not buying the 737, it's been a great workhorse for many airlines over the decades but I don't think there's anything it can do that the A320 can't?
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:15 pm

flash330 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
oschkosch wrote:
For me personally the LOI was just a kind gesture by Walsh to Boeing in a time of need for good publicity.

Except at the start of 2019 Walsh said they want to do more business with Boeing on the 737 and were looking at it in the long term


Yeah, seemed crazy to me to reward a company with so many issues at the time with an order for 200 planes. If Samsung had loads of issues with their phones I would not be rushing out to buy one until they fixed the problems

I also don't understand the regret of not buying the 737, it's been a great workhorse for many airlines over the decades but I don't think there's anything it can do that the A320 can't?

I think moreso the point of getting lower unit cost because if he had both 737 and 320 he could’ve driven down acquisition prices by pitting both OEMs against each other. Basically what happened with the 777X vs 350/380
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:19 pm

Wow, this is actually really good news for Airbus and a bit of a strange place for Boeing to be in (they "almost" had an order, now they're basically having to compete all over again).

Should be as interesting as the 8i vs A380 RFP from a while back.
 
timboflier215
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:14 pm

Boeing seems to be more aggressive on MAX pricing now vs 2019 (if Ryanair are to be believed), possibly because the MAX order book has held up better than expected; I wonder if they've basically said to IAG that they won't get anywhere near the LOI pricing so IAG have decided to see if sticking with Airbus makes more financial sense.
 
Opus99
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:31 pm

timboflier215 wrote:
Boeing seems to be more aggressive on MAX pricing now vs 2019 (if Ryanair are to be believed), possibly because the MAX order book has held up better than expected; I wonder if they've basically said to IAG that they won't get anywhere near the LOI pricing so IAG have decided to see if sticking with Airbus makes more financial sense.

I think the pricing might be better now. In 2019 there were still 5000 MAXs in the order book. Now there are 3300. I’d say now the pricing will be even better
 
WayexTDI
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:00 pm

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
"Among other European prospects, British Airways parent IAG has reopened a fresh competition between Airbus and Boeing for narrowbody jets, revisiting a large provisional order for 200 MAX jets that was never finalised, the sources said."

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/air ... 26124.html

It seems IAG MAX LOI is dead and buried.

Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.

You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?

Can somebody else explain this to me


If the uncontested LOI was alive and well, then IAG could just firm it. But that hasn't happened, and now they've started a new competition. It's not unreasonable to say the original LOI is dead and buried. It's very possible that it's expired anyway, as it was signed over two years ago.

The original LOI might not be entirely dead and buried; but it sure sounds like it's agonizing if IAG feels the need to reopen the competition.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:20 pm

Opus99 wrote:
timboflier215 wrote:
Boeing seems to be more aggressive on MAX pricing now vs 2019 (if Ryanair are to be believed), possibly because the MAX order book has held up better than expected; I wonder if they've basically said to IAG that they won't get anywhere near the LOI pricing so IAG have decided to see if sticking with Airbus makes more financial sense.

I think the pricing might be better now. In 2019 there were still 5000 MAXs in the order book. Now there are 3300. I’d say now the pricing will be even better
IF the price is even better now why did the recent FR deal not close? And what would the reaction of MOL be, if Boeing now re-drop their pants to "get back" those 200 max from IAG which they now seem to have "lost"?

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Eiszeit
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:24 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
timboflier215 wrote:
Boeing seems to be more aggressive on MAX pricing now vs 2019 (if Ryanair are to be believed), possibly because the MAX order book has held up better than expected; I wonder if they've basically said to IAG that they won't get anywhere near the LOI pricing so IAG have decided to see if sticking with Airbus makes more financial sense.

I think the pricing might be better now. In 2019 there were still 5000 MAXs in the order book. Now there are 3300. I’d say now the pricing will be even better
IF the price is even better now why did the recent FR deal not close? And what would the reaction of MOL be, if Boeing now re-drop their pants to "get back" those 200 max from IAG which they now seem to have "lost"?

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Well it's allways possible that FR did want "the soap picked up" not just pants down and BAC is unwilling to low fpr pricing into a -cashflow area (atleast for a good part of the order). In the end FR has a good few MAXs on order and probably could order more later at these not so juicy prices, if there is no other blowback to exploit from either manufacturer.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:33 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
"Among other European prospects, British Airways parent IAG has reopened a fresh competition between Airbus and Boeing for narrowbody jets, revisiting a large provisional order for 200 MAX jets that was never finalised, the sources said."
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/air ... 26124.html
It seems IAG MAX LOI is dead and buried.


Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.
You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?
Can somebody else explain this to me


The LOI was initiated by a soon to be out the door CEO. They haven't acted on the LOI in 27 months. Fresh competition now would imply that old LOI is being challenged, therefore it no longer reflects a true intent. The intent now is to solicit bids for A32x, 73x, and A22x families. I understand your desire to paint all things positive for your home team frame builder, but the evidence would strongly suggest this letter is dead... all things intended (no pun intended). Perhaps it may be used as a framework or starting place for the RFP, but then that is a letter with a different intent: An intent to enter into negotiations and open competition, not a final decision to buy x number of planes (200) from a single manufacturer.

It's dead. But not buried... as it may be examined.... post humously...
 
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Crosswind
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:43 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Just a bit bad that IAG is actually run by Spanish guys and has is registered in Spain. So that pendulum would be more in EUs favor. Also all airlines except BA are actually EU airlines.


That’s not quite true, IAG’s head office is inside BA’s head office in Waterside. Their registered office is in Spain, but it’s just that. A legal office. The group is primarily run and managed from London, and it’s still listed on the London stock exchange.

From their own website;

IAG Headquarters
International Airlines Group
Waterside (HAA2),
PO Box 365
Harmondsworth,
UB7 0GB

Registered Office
International Airlines Group
El Caserío, Iberia Zona Industrial, nº 2
(La Muñoza), Camino de la Muñoza, s/n,
28042 Madrid

https://www.iairgroup.com/en/site-services/contact-us
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:42 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
"Among other European prospects, British Airways parent IAG has reopened a fresh competition between Airbus and Boeing for narrowbody jets, revisiting a large provisional order for 200 MAX jets that was never finalised, the sources said."
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/air ... 26124.html
It seems IAG MAX LOI is dead and buried.


Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.
You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?
Can somebody else explain this to me


The LOI was initiated by a soon to be out the door CEO. They haven't acted on the LOI in 27 months. Fresh competition now would imply that old LOI is being challenged, therefore it no longer reflects a true intent. The intent now is to solicit bids for A32x, 73x, and A22x families. I understand your desire to paint all things positive for your home team frame builder, but the evidence would strongly suggest this letter is dead... all things intended (no pun intended). Perhaps it may be used as a framework or starting place for the RFP, but then that is a letter with a different intent: An intent to enter into negotiations and open competition, not a final decision to buy x number of planes (200) from a single manufacturer.

It's dead. But not buried... as it may be examined.... post humously...

Oh give me break. My point is the LOI can be revisited as a reference point WHILST the competition is still in the running. Which is what the article is trying to point out. An LOI is not an order as we all know. No need to get your knickers in a twist
 
Opus99
Posts: 2670
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:43 pm

oschkosch wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
timboflier215 wrote:
Boeing seems to be more aggressive on MAX pricing now vs 2019 (if Ryanair are to be believed), possibly because the MAX order book has held up better than expected; I wonder if they've basically said to IAG that they won't get anywhere near the LOI pricing so IAG have decided to see if sticking with Airbus makes more financial sense.

I think the pricing might be better now. In 2019 there were still 5000 MAXs in the order book. Now there are 3300. I’d say now the pricing will be even better
IF the price is even better now why did the recent FR deal not close? And what would the reaction of MOL be, if Boeing now re-drop their pants to "get back" those 200 max from IAG which they now seem to have "lost"?

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Did an FR deal close in 2019?
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:08 am

Opus99 wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Opus99 wrote:


Revisiting a 200 MAX jet provisional order that was never finalised.
You translated that to the LOI is dead and buried?
Can somebody else explain this to me


The LOI was initiated by a soon to be out the door CEO. They haven't acted on the LOI in 27 months. Fresh competition now would imply that old LOI is being challenged, therefore it no longer reflects a true intent. The intent now is to solicit bids for A32x, 73x, and A22x families. I understand your desire to paint all things positive for your home team frame builder, but the evidence would strongly suggest this letter is dead... all things intended (no pun intended). Perhaps it may be used as a framework or starting place for the RFP, but then that is a letter with a different intent: An intent to enter into negotiations and open competition, not a final decision to buy x number of planes (200) from a single manufacturer.

It's dead. But not buried... as it may be examined.... post humously...

Oh give me break. My point is the LOI can be revisited as a reference point WHILST the competition is still in the running. Which is what the article is trying to point out. An LOI is not an order as we all know. No need to get your knickers in a twist


nothing twisted.... i really haven't said anything different than everyone else that disagrees with you.
 
Opus99
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:09 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:

The LOI was initiated by a soon to be out the door CEO. They haven't acted on the LOI in 27 months. Fresh competition now would imply that old LOI is being challenged, therefore it no longer reflects a true intent. The intent now is to solicit bids for A32x, 73x, and A22x families. I understand your desire to paint all things positive for your home team frame builder, but the evidence would strongly suggest this letter is dead... all things intended (no pun intended). Perhaps it may be used as a framework or starting place for the RFP, but then that is a letter with a different intent: An intent to enter into negotiations and open competition, not a final decision to buy x number of planes (200) from a single manufacturer.

It's dead. But not buried... as it may be examined.... post humously...

Oh give me break. My point is the LOI can be revisited as a reference point WHILST the competition is still in the running. Which is what the article is trying to point out. An LOI is not an order as we all know. No need to get your knickers in a twist


nothing twisted.... i really haven't said anything different than everyone else that disagrees with you.

We are saying the same thing. I don’t know how I’m painting it for my “home team frame builder”. But that’s your opinion
 
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lightsaber
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:32 am

scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

If the uncontested LOI was alive and well, then IAG could just firm it. But that hasn't happened, and now they've started a new competition. It's not unreasonable to say the original LOI is dead and buried. It's very possible that it's expired anyway, as it was signed over two years ago.

That makes sense. But do you agree it will be bad business for it to be uncontested? I think the LOI can be alive and well and still be contested. It doesn’t mean it has to be dead and buried


Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.

Nicely understated, this will be brutal. The engine service contracts might set new standards.

Lightsaber
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:10 am

lightsaber wrote:
scbriml wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
That makes sense. But do you agree it will be bad business for it to be uncontested? I think the LOI can be alive and well and still be contested. It doesn’t mean it has to be dead and buried


Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.

Nicely understated, this will be brutal. The engine service contracts might set new standards.

Lightsaber

Wasn't there a discussion back then Airbus was not invited in the previous bid? Airbus themselves made a statement they were not invited to submit RFP.......
 
B777LRF
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Thu Sep 23, 2021 6:33 am

When Boeing was in the deepest of doo-doo, BA offered them a no-cost lifeline in the form of a non binding LOI. It served the intended purpose, in that it got Boeing a bit of good news at a time it was desperately needed.

Most people, particularly those with a professional rather than fan-based view of the industry, saw that is nothing more than it was; a marketing stunt. It is utterly incomprehensible that IAG would place an order without running a competition first, unless Boeing almost gave the aircraft away. And since no order was ever placed, we may safely assume Boeing didn't do that.

A normal competition will now be run, and it is more than just an uphill battle for Boeing to secure this order. The A32X is well and truly embedded within all IAG airlines, and is by any measure at least as good, but mainly better than, the Max. That means the only effective way Boeing has to win this order is to offer them at a ridiculously low price, and if they do that then all hell will break loose amongst their existing and prospective customers. And that's before we even get to the fact that the Max is utterly unsuited for operations into IAG's biggest hub.

Rock, meet hard place.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Thu Sep 23, 2021 7:29 am

B777LRF wrote:
When Boeing was in the deepest of doo-doo, BA offered them a no-cost lifeline in the form of a non binding LOI. It served the intended purpose, in that it got Boeing a bit of good news at a time it was desperately needed.

Most people, particularly those with a professional rather than fan-based view of the industry, saw that is nothing more than it was; a marketing stunt. It is utterly incomprehensible that IAG would place an order without running a competition first, unless Boeing almost gave the aircraft away. And since no order was ever placed, we may safely assume Boeing didn't do that.

A normal competition will now be run, and it is more than just an uphill battle for Boeing to secure this order. The A32X is well and truly embedded within all IAG airlines, and is by any measure at least as good, but mainly better than, the Max. That means the only effective way Boeing has to win this order is to offer them at a ridiculously low price, and if they do that then all hell will break loose amongst their existing and prospective customers. And that's before we even get to the fact that the Max is utterly unsuited for operations into IAG's biggest hub.

Rock, meet hard place.

Just out of curiosity, care to elaborate on why the Max is unsuited for operations from their biggest hub?
 
Diverskii
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:24 am

JonesNL wrote:
Just out of curiosity, care to elaborate on why the Max is unsuited for operations from their biggest hub?


The Max is bulk loaded, whereas the infrastructure at LHR T5 (and to a large extent also MAD) is built for containers.

Bulk loaded aircraft do visit T5 every now and then, but it is time/resource intensive to accommodate.

That's not to say the MAX couldn't fit in to other IAG hubs nicely though, it could.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:18 am

B777LRF wrote:
When Boeing was in the deepest of doo-doo, BA offered them a no-cost lifeline in the form of a non binding LOI. It served the intended purpose, in that it got Boeing a bit of good news at a time it was desperately needed.

Most people, particularly those with a professional rather than fan-based view of the industry, saw that is nothing more than it was; a marketing stunt. It is utterly incomprehensible that IAG would place an order without running a competition first, unless Boeing almost gave the aircraft away. And since no order was ever placed, we may safely assume Boeing didn't do that.

A normal competition will now be run, and it is more than just an uphill battle for Boeing to secure this order. The A32X is well and truly embedded within all IAG airlines, and is by any measure at least as good, but mainly better than, the Max. That means the only effective way Boeing has to win this order is to offer them at a ridiculously low price, and if they do that then all hell will break loose amongst their existing and prospective customers. And that's before we even get to the fact that the Max is utterly unsuited for operations into IAG's biggest hub.

Rock, meet hard place.
Very well written statement! I fully agree the LOI was just a marketing tool, done by Walsh shortly before his retirement...

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Vicenza
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:39 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.

Nicely understated, this will be brutal. The engine service contracts might set new standards.

Lightsaber

Wasn't there a discussion back then Airbus was not invited in the previous bid? Airbus themselves made a statement they were not invited to submit RFP.......


Because there was never any intention to but the MAX with that LOI....it was purely a publicity stunt between Walsh and Boeing.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: B737MAX Still considered for IAGs future fleet

Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:56 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Most folks don't seem to have a problem with uncontested orders from Southwest or Ryanair, so I'm not sure why IAG should be seen differently.

That said, the normal process would be for an LOI or MOU to be signed after a competition. IAG clearly intended to only order MAX when they signed the LOI. To say things have now changed would be something of an understatement. Without the massive upheaval of Covid-19, that LOI might have already been firmed, but it now seems the slate has been wiped clean and we have a new competition. One assumes Boeing will submit a new bid (which may or may not be very similar to the previous one).

We'll see how this plays out. It won't be dull.

Nicely understated, this will be brutal. The engine service contracts might set new standards.

Lightsaber

Wasn't there a discussion back then Airbus was not invited in the previous bid? Airbus themselves made a statement they were not invited to submit RFP.......

If the LOI was that good of a deal, with a non-compete clause, then probably it was exclusive. However, a better deal could be arrived at today as then was more of a sellers' market and today is a buyers' market.

Important caveat: I'm not changing my opinion from the FR thread that the best window closed with the UA -10 MAX order, I'm just of the opinion pricing is still better today than when the LOI was signed. The chance of getting a good contract from CFM or Pratt to do engine maintenance themselves (part pricing) is much better now. It isn't just the purchase price, the support costs will be negotiated down (e.g., engine parts) or perhaps ability to earn a profit maintaining engines for other airlines.

I personally think either aircraft could win or even both. (e.g., A320 for BA at LHR and MAX for elsewhere) This will be a brutal competition with no allegiance to anything but total costs, future revenue potential (flying passengers or servicing aircraft or engines), and cash flow schedule. There is only one winner: IAG.

Lightsaber
 
B777LRF
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Re: Updated: IAG has reopened a fresh competition for narrowbody jets

Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:33 pm

I must applaud Lightsaber for the mental gymnastics which leads to the conclusion, that the prices are better now (when Boeing have started to amass Max orders again, to the point they flatly refused Ryanair's "offer") than they were in 2020 when Boeing hadn't received a single Max order for almost a year, but instead had to book upwards of 1.000 cancellations. I would dearly like to know how that conclusion was reached, and I don't for one second buy the idea that the engines - or the maintenance thereof - have suddenly become cheaper. Why would they, when CFM have exclusivity on the Max and are selling the Leap in record numbers.

The only plausible explanation is that the LOI was nothing but a marketing stunt, which might just be a single piece of paper saying "we agree that BA are interested in purchasing 200 Max aircraft", with no further details on pricing, delivery timetable or support agreement.

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