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JerseyFlyer
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Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:54 pm

"Now is the time to order aircraft because the prices are very good,” Joyce told The Australian Financial Review’s Business Summit,"

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... ime-to-buy

MAX or NEO?

QF seem to have a habit of surfing between crises when refreshing their narrow body fleets. IIRC a lot of their current 738s were bought cheaply as cancelled AA frames post-9/11.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:02 pm

Hmmm. It’s going to be extremely agressive. I don’t know who will come out on top. But competition will be fierce. 737NG customer Boeing will certainly not want to lose
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:19 pm

Both the a320 and 737 are in use at the QF group, so this will be interesting.
 
Fuling
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:25 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Both the a320 and 737 are in use at the QF group, so this will be interesting.


And with around 100 A321neo/LR/XLR on order for the group, , it does help one picture a domestic fleet of A320neo family aircraft. :scratchchin:
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:30 pm

Fuling wrote:
BrianDromey wrote:
Both the a320 and 737 are in use at the QF group, so this will be interesting.


And with around 100 A321neo/LR/XLR on order for the group, , it does help one picture a domestic fleet of A320neo family aircraft. :scratchchin:

Many of those are earmarked for JetStar. QF has 75 737s alone, it can go either way.
 
EdmFlyBoi
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:34 pm

Would not Airbus have an advantage here with the fleet commonality and the number of NEO's on order? Qantas also has the ongoing "Project Sunrise" pending order for the A350-1000. Would reckon that that the Max might be available earlier although one would suspect Airbus could accommodate Qantas's preferred delivery schedule. This will likely come down to price (much like AC's order for the Max).
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:59 pm

Wasn't JQ equipped with A320s so that JQ pilots could be hired under different conditions to the QF 737 pilots?

Has the need to differentiate the two pilot groups been removed, or can they now be separated by other means, thus making the equipment differentiator redundant?
Last edited by vhtje on Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:09 pm

EdmFlyBoi wrote:
Would not Airbus have an advantage here with the fleet commonality and the number of NEO's on order? Qantas also has the ongoing "Project Sunrise" pending order for the A350-1000. Would reckon that that the Max might be available earlier although one would suspect Airbus could accommodate Qantas's preferred delivery schedule. This will likely come down to price (much like AC's order for the Max).


Only on a.net would a potential future widebody order dictate a NB order.
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Strato2
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:18 pm

Antarius wrote:
EdmFlyBoi wrote:
Would not Airbus have an advantage here with the fleet commonality and the number of NEO's on order? Qantas also has the ongoing "Project Sunrise" pending order for the A350-1000. Would reckon that that the Max might be available earlier although one would suspect Airbus could accommodate Qantas's preferred delivery schedule. This will likely come down to price (much like AC's order for the Max).


Only on a.net would a potential future widebody order dictate a NB order.


Airbus can make QF a sweet combo deal on both the A350 and the NEO.
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:21 pm

Antarius wrote:
EdmFlyBoi wrote:
Would not Airbus have an advantage here with the fleet commonality and the number of NEO's on order? Qantas also has the ongoing "Project Sunrise" pending order for the A350-1000. Would reckon that that the Max might be available earlier although one would suspect Airbus could accommodate Qantas's preferred delivery schedule. This will likely come down to price (much like AC's order for the Max).


Only on a.net would a potential future widebody order dictate a NB order.

Literally what i was about to say
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:34 pm

vhtje wrote:
Wasn't JQ equipped with A320s so that JQ pilots could be hired under different conditions to the QF 737 pilots?

Has the need to differentiate the two pilot groups been removed, or can they now be separated by other means, thus making the equipment differentiator redundant?


Good point. Separate JetStar and QF maintenance/overhaul staff? Separate parts inventories? If they can't combine pilots, FAs, maintenance and parts there aren't many op efficiencies to be had by going to a single type.
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:49 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
vhtje wrote:
Wasn't JQ equipped with A320s so that JQ pilots could be hired under different conditions to the QF 737 pilots?

Has the need to differentiate the two pilot groups been removed, or can they now be separated by other means, thus making the equipment differentiator redundant?


Good point. Separate JetStar and QF maintenance/overhaul staff? Separate parts inventories? If they can't combine pilots, FAs, maintenance and parts there aren't many op efficiencies to be had by going to a single type.


Yes I thought QF intentionally keeps the two groups separate, so if this is stil the case (has anything changed?) then it's not a contest- I'm sure Airbus is aware of this internal constraint.
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:01 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
vhtje wrote:
Wasn't JQ equipped with A320s so that JQ pilots could be hired under different conditions to the QF 737 pilots?

Has the need to differentiate the two pilot groups been removed, or can they now be separated by other means, thus making the equipment differentiator redundant?


Good point. Separate JetStar and QF maintenance/overhaul staff? Separate parts inventories? If they can't combine pilots, FAs, maintenance and parts there aren't many op efficiencies to be had by going to a single type.


Separate, separate, separate. That's part of the reason for Jetstar's success vs other airlines around the world who tried and failed with their own LCC.

Therefore the JQ order for 100 neos means nothing and the Project Sunrise is irrelevant here too.

This should be a Boeing win, one would expect.
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:26 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
"QF seem to have a habit of surfing between crises when refreshing their narrow body fleets. IIRC a lot of their current 738s were bought cheaply as cancelled AA frames post-9/11.


'Surfing between crises' is a bit of a stretch, isn't it? In the jet era, QF never had narrow bodies, except for, going back, the 707 of course, when it was the first non-US airline to use the type.

QF did order 737-838s, but the rushed timing of that had more to do with the collapse of domestic competitor AN (which happened on the 9th September 2001) than the tragic events on the same day in NYC. AN's collapse handed QF nearly 80% of the domestic market, and meant QF needed additional capacity, and fast; QF did manage take advantage of an unneeded AA order for quick delivery. Fifteen aircraft thus arrived within 3 months; these aircraft were easy to spot as they had AA fabric on the seats for a few years - you can see photos of this in the database.

QF's domestic predecessor, TN, did not, as far as I know, ever order any aircraft 'between crises'.
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Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:27 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
EdmFlyBoi wrote:
Would not Airbus have an advantage here with the fleet commonality and the number of NEO's on order? Qantas also has the ongoing "Project Sunrise" pending order for the A350-1000. Would reckon that that the Max might be available earlier although one would suspect Airbus could accommodate Qantas's preferred delivery schedule. This will likely come down to price (much like AC's order for the Max).


Only on a.net would a potential future widebody order dictate a NB order.


Airbus can make QF a sweet combo deal on both the A350 and the NEO.


On a.net, sure they can. In real life, it isn't 2 for the price of 1 (just pay shipping and handling). Lot of wishful thinking here.

Both the neo and MAX are in play for sure. But the order isn't going to be decided by what QF does with Sunrise (which may not even happen before this order is placed).
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:31 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Therefore the JQ order for 100 neos means nothing and the Project Sunrise is irrelevant here too.


Agreed.

ClassicLover wrote:
This should be a Boeing win, one would expect.


Boeing will be seeing this as a must win. But QF does operate a variety across manufacturers and they know how JQ is performing, so I wouldn't rule out the neo as a viable competitor here.

Also, what about their 717s? Airbus could come in with a a320neo + A220 proposal?
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:37 pm

vhtje wrote:
QF did order 737-838s, but the rushed timing of that had more to do with the collapse of domestic competitor AN (which happened on the 9th September 2001) than the tragic events on the same day in NYC. AN's collapse handed QF nearly 80% of the domestic market, and meant QF needed additional capacity, and fast; QF did manage take advantage of an unneeded AA order for quick delivery. Fifteen aircraft thus arrived within 3 months; these aircraft were easy to spot as they had AA fabric on the seats for a few years - you can see photos of this in the database.


AA 737-823 interior, 2004:



QF 737-838 interior, 2004:

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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:43 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
vhtje wrote:
Wasn't JQ equipped with A320s so that JQ pilots could be hired under different conditions to the QF 737 pilots?

Has the need to differentiate the two pilot groups been removed, or can they now be separated by other means, thus making the equipment differentiator redundant?


Good point. Separate JetStar and QF maintenance/overhaul staff? Separate parts inventories? If they can't combine pilots, FAs, maintenance and parts there aren't many op efficiencies to be had by going to a single type.


Separate, separate, separate. That's part of the reason for Jetstar's success vs other airlines around the world who tried and failed with their own LCC.

Therefore the JQ order for 100 neos means nothing and the Project Sunrise is irrelevant here too.

This should be a Boeing win, one would expect.


I agree that separation between QF mainline and JQ had relevance in the past.

But Qantas Group has 36 A321XLR s on order, and it is not clear that all of these will go to JQ. So I think MAX and NEO both have a shot at this. If QF mainline gets XLRs, you could argue that favours the NEO for the main 738 replcement order.

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-new-a321xlr-fleet/
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:58 pm

I say pick whichever one can do a tighter barrel roll!
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:52 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
"Now is the time to order aircraft because the prices are very good,” Joyce told The Australian Financial Review’s Business Summit,"


We’ve seen NG and CEO prices drop since C19 and MAX’s because of its grounding, but are NEO prices really that good? Their backlog has remained mostly in tact, and now with production reduced, I’d expect slots to be at a premium.
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:26 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
"Now is the time to order aircraft because the prices are very good,” Joyce told The Australian Financial Review’s Business Summit,"


We’ve seen NG and CEO prices drop since C19 and MAX’s because of its grounding, but are NEO prices really that good? Their backlog has remained mostly in tact, and now with production reduced, I’d expect slots to be at a premium.


Agreed, which is why I think this will go Boeing. 100 NEO and 75 MAX on a Group-wide basis are sufficiently large fleets that they can realise efficiencies even if they are split. Boeing will come up with a very sharp offer, that Airbus may not feel compelled to match with the current NEO backlog. Depending on how sharp the offer is, the capital saving could be well worth the cost of managing two parts inventories etc.
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:32 pm

vhtje wrote:
vhtje wrote:
QF did order 737-838s, but the rushed timing of that had more to do with the collapse of domestic competitor AN (which happened on the 9th September 2001) than the tragic events on the same day in NYC. AN's collapse handed QF nearly 80% of the domestic market, and meant QF needed additional capacity, and fast; QF did manage take advantage of an unneeded AA order for quick delivery. Fifteen aircraft thus arrived within 3 months; these aircraft were easy to spot as they had AA fabric on the seats for a few years - you can see photos of this in the database.


AA 737-823 interior, 2004:



QF 737-838 interior, 2004:



To this day you can still spot them as the side panels have the old AA design, which is a series of dashes arranged in a diamond shape. The QF ordered aircraft have plain off-white side panels.

I know that the side panel design is a geeky thing to notice, but I have always disliked the AA design as I think it makes the cabin feel less spacious and more closed in. It’s something I’ve felt flying on both QF and AA.
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:21 pm

Antarius wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Antarius wrote:

Only on a.net would a potential future widebody order dictate a NB order.


Airbus can make QF a sweet combo deal on both the A350 and the NEO.


On a.net, sure they can. In real life, it isn't 2 for the price of 1 (just pay shipping and handling). Lot of wishful thinking here.

Both the neo and MAX are in play for sure. But the order isn't going to be decided by what QF does with Sunrise (which may not even happen before this order is placed).



False. The original question was actually a very good one.

What you are missing right out is that no part of the original question centered on anything as pedestrian as Product Lines themselves. This is a very a.net mistake to make, but as a company, AB are far more interested in what their revenue —and how that relates to their margins— look like vs the 'inconvenience' of making a cross-line offer for two different products.
AB will undoubtedly see this as an opportunity to consolidate revenues WRT the 350 Sunrises and NEOs in question. There need be no relationship between aircraft or components for the company as a single unit —AB— to leverage incentives to their customer, also a single unit —QF. Ditto for the contracts themselves.

This matters as there is a contract likely to be signed for 12 units of Sunrise capable A350-1000s.
BCA are in no such position as there are only three outstanding 789s, all deferred, all already in work at some level. The do not have the flexibility AB do in this matter.
This is not to say they will not try either, but whatever they do will have to come entirely from the theoretical MAX order itself. Automatically a lower margin.

A simplification: If I am in your store to buy Potatoes and decide I also want Grapes while I am out and about, you and I both win if you offer an incentive on both products. You sell and set prices for both products, so there is nothing prohibiting this.
I save a trip across town, and you make more money than you otherwise would have —assuming you do a good job maintaining your margins.
I could go across town for different Grapes, but I have no assurance that store will be able to match this deal. And since this is a very small town, you are fully aware of this.

What you most likely are not aware of is how flexible that —350— contract still is. Items like Spares, Training, & Slotting have still not been fully determined. It is foolish to assume that will play no role here.
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Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:36 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Strato2 wrote:

Airbus can make QF a sweet combo deal on both the A350 and the NEO.


On a.net, sure they can. In real life, it isn't 2 for the price of 1 (just pay shipping and handling). Lot of wishful thinking here.

Both the neo and MAX are in play for sure. But the order isn't going to be decided by what QF does with Sunrise (which may not even happen before this order is placed).



False. The original question was actually a very good one.

What you are missing right out is that no part of the original question centered on anything as pedestrian as Product Lines themselves. This is a very a.net mistake to make, but as a company, AB are far more interested in what their revenue —and how that relates to their margins— look like vs the 'inconvenience' of making a cross-line offer for two different products.
AB will undoubtedly see this as an opportunity to consolidate revenues WRT the 350 Sunrises and NEOs in question. There need be no relationship between aircraft or components for the company as a single unit —AB— to leverage incentives to their customer, also a single unit —QF. Ditto for the contracts themselves.

This matters as there is a contract likely to be signed for 12 units of Sunrise capable A350-1000s.
BCA are in no such position as there are only three outstanding 789s, all deferred, all already in work at some level. The do not have the flexibility AB do in this matter.
This is not to say they will not try either, but whatever they do will have to come entirely from the theoretical MAX order itself. Automatically a lower margin.

A simplification: If I am in your store to buy Potatoes and decide I also want Grapes while I am out and about, you and I both win if you offer an incentive on both products. You sell and set prices for both products, so there is nothing prohibiting this.
I save a trip across town, and you make more money than you otherwise would have —assuming you do a good job maintaining your margins.
I could go across town for different Grapes, but I have no assurance that store will be able to match this deal. And since this is a very small town, you are fully aware of this.

What you most likely are not aware of is how flexible that —350— contract still is. Items like Spares, Training, & Slotting have still not been fully determined. It is foolish to assume that will play no role here.


And this is a highly simplistic view. I am well aware of the concept of bundling and selling a package as opposed to a single item. The problem with your analogy is that is far far too simplistic. To where you're arguing grade 1 math when the QF is dealing with algebraic geometry.

QF have both manufacturer's products and have purchased the product that fits their needs at the time that fits their needs, independent of the rest of the fleet makeup. That is how they have 738s, 717s, a330s, 787s and a380s. They also placed orders for the a321XLR. So they understand what product fits their Capex and Opex needs for the long term.

They certainly could pick the neo, however that would be based on price, availability and operational costs. They may go MAX for the same 3 reasons. However, 12 widebodies that theoretically could be ordered someday if/when Sunrise happens aren't going to be part of their decision.
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:48 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
What you most likely are not aware of is how flexible that —350— contract still is. Items like Spares, Training, & Slotting have still not been fully determined. It is foolish to assume that will play no role here.

At this point most of the sunrise contract needs to be renegotiated with Airbus’s original prices expired.
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 8:58 pm

Antarius wrote:

And this is a highly simplistic view. I am well aware of the concept of bundling and selling a package as opposed to a single item. The problem with your analogy is that is far far too simplistic.


It was necessary to slow this down, hence the tag "A Simplification". In all sincerity, I remain unconvinced that you have a thorough enough understanding of this. There is nothing wrong with that, mind, but simplification sometimes becomes necessary to more properly illustrate the difference between the forest and the tress. So to speak. . .


Antarius wrote:
QF have both manufacturer's products and have purchased the product that fits their needs at the time that fits their needs, independent of the rest of the fleet makeup. That is how they have 738s, 717s, a330s, 787s and a380s. They also placed orders for the a321XLR.


Those items are already purchased, leased, etc. So that would not be relevant here. If you were to demonstrate some operation differences between the NEO & the MAX, that would be tangentially relevant, yes. But you have not done that.

So you understand, that is not to say QF will not look that way. But I do not feel it is productive to speculate on that with you until I become convinced you know more of the basics at play here. . .

Antarius wrote:
So they understand what product fits their Capex and Opex needs for the long term.


Serious question. Do you?

CapEx oftentimes has an impact on OpEx, however that is amortized. AB being able to leverage that better than BCA —very likely in this case— will have an impact on their OpEx. You did not know that.

Polot wrote:
At this point most of the sunrise contract needs to be renegotiated with Airbus’s original prices expired.


Correct. It is unlikely that AB will fail to interpret that as an opportunity in this case. Same again QF.
It would take a full cancelation of the Sunrise Program to negate that advantage.


For BCA to win, they will need to leverage Slots, Spares, & Training aggressively, and all from only one line. Not at all impossible. But they will have a steeper hill to climb.
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:03 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

For BCA to win, they will need to leverage Slots, Spares, & Training aggressively, and all from only one line. Not at all impossible. But they will have a steeper hill to climb.

It’s not necessarily steeper. Training, for example, is actually an advantage Boeing has- remember QF already operates 75 737s. Getting those pilots on the Max will be cheaper than getting them on the Neo, even after the additional training requirements imposed on the Max after the grounding. Slots are also likely a Boeing advantage, especially when they have a bunch of white tails they would like to wipe their hands of.

They both have hills to climb, just different hills.
 
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:06 pm

Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:

For BCA to win, they will need to leverage Slots, Spares, & Training aggressively, and all from only one line. Not at all impossible. But they will have a steeper hill to climb.

It’s not necessarily steeper. Training, for example, is actually an advantage Boeing has- remember QF already operates 75 737s. Getting those pilots on the Max will be cheaper than getting them on the Neo, even after the additional training requirements imposed on the Max after the grounding. Slots are also likely a Boeing advantage, especially when they have a bunch of white tails they would like to wipe their hands of.

They both have hills to climb, just different hills.


Agreed. And those hills don't have anything to do with Sunrise. Much as some posters want it to.
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:09 pm

I see this as a MAX 8 order and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some MAX 10 for transcontinental and East Coast (Australia) trunk routes between Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Canberra. There is a question on if they would then retain some 738s for freighter conversions...remember that there are ancient 733s needing replacement.

I could see Boeing combine this with a sweet B789/B78X order as well to make mainline QF all Boeing (minus Project Sunrise).
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:10 pm

Ultimately, there are aspects that favour both OEMS, looking at what Alan Joyce ACTUALLY said, everything will come down to price. Its easy for them to bring in the MAX its also easy for them to bring in the NEO.

Who is willing to offer the better pricing package? Whoever that is will win. The aircraft are very close in performance and efficiency, so it really won't be based on that. Yes QF has a big NG fleet but they can integrate NEO easily too.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:19 pm

Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:

For BCA to win, they will need to leverage Slots, Spares, & Training aggressively, and all from only one line. Not at all impossible. But they will have a steeper hill to climb.

It’s not necessarily steeper. Training, for example, is actually an advantage Boeing has- remember QF already operates 75 737s. Getting those pilots on the Max will be cheaper than getting them on the Neo, even after the additional training requirements imposed on the Max after the grounding. Slots are also likely a Boeing advantage, especially when they have a bunch of white tails they would like to wipe their hands of.

They both have hills to climb, just different hills.



A distinct possibility. Taking a deeper look into this particular case, I would wager the Slot advantage —decidedly for BCA here— may be key given the expected recovery times for air travel and the associated shifts in market at large. That is difficult to properly speculate on —QF could in the end be fine with a ten year delivery period— but more flexibility is virtually never a bad thing.

Training would also work more for BCA, especially where MX is concerned as well.

I cannot say if these are enough to overcome the pricing advantage AB have with marketing a more total and integrated package, but it certainly is not nothing, yes.
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Opus99
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:21 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:

For BCA to win, they will need to leverage Slots, Spares, & Training aggressively, and all from only one line. Not at all impossible. But they will have a steeper hill to climb.

It’s not necessarily steeper. Training, for example, is actually an advantage Boeing has- remember QF already operates 75 737s. Getting those pilots on the Max will be cheaper than getting them on the Neo, even after the additional training requirements imposed on the Max after the grounding. Slots are also likely a Boeing advantage, especially when they have a bunch of white tails they would like to wipe their hands of.

They both have hills to climb, just different hills.



A distinct possibility. Taking a deeper look into this particular case, I would wager the Slot advantage —decidedly for BCA here— may be key given the expected recovery times for air travel and the associated shifts in market at large. That is difficult to properly speculate on —QF could in the end be fine with a ten year delivery period— but more flexibility is virtually never a bad thing.

Training would also work more for BCA, especially where MX is concerned as well.

I cannot say if these are enough to overcome the pricing advantage AB have with marketing a more total and integrated package, but it certainly is not nothing, yes.

Do you honestly think airbus will come in at the price Boeing will potentially come in at?
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:23 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
I cannot say if these are enough to overcome the pricing advantage AB have with marketing a more total and integrated package, but it certainly is not nothing, yes.

That only comes into play of QF is actually willing to order the A350s at the same time. They are not necessarily going to accept higher per unit A320neo price just because A350s are also bundled in. The narrow bodies are the e primary drivers of the order.

QF selected the A350 the first time but has no binding agreement with Airbus. They can easily play the 777X and A350 off each other again in a separate order.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:42 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Do you honestly think airbus will come in at the price Boeing will potentially come in at?


Depends. What BCA did for IAG? No, not likely. At that point, AB would be selling below cost. For a total package involving Training, Slots, & Spares for these and the 350s QF were already going to get anyway? There is no reason to believe that cannot happen.


Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
I cannot say if these are enough to overcome the pricing advantage AB have with marketing a more total and integrated package, but it certainly is not nothing, yes.

That only comes into play of QF is actually willing to order the A350s at the same time. They are not necessarily going to accept higher per unit A320neo price just because A350s are also bundled in. The narrow bodies are the e primary drivers of the order.


If QF are intent on maintaining the 350 order —even if at an extended deferral— and the difference between the NEO & MAX is marginal enough, especially with Ancillaries, it will be enough to tip the scales.

If QF junk that contract in favor of a re-bid, or go to BCA for 778/78XX/Etc... then the order becomes tilts in BCA's favor for exactly the same reasons.

If QF junk the contract in favor of nothing at all, than it is a Jump Ball.
Well, you know what they say. Whatever doesn't kill you...
... Must not be an MD-11.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:54 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Do you honestly think airbus will come in at the price Boeing will potentially come in at?


Depends. What BCA did for IAG? No, not likely. At that point, AB would be selling below cost. For a total package involving Training, Slots, & Spares for these and the 350s QF were already going to get anyway? There is no reason to believe that cannot happen.


Depends on what price you are talking about. Total price? There is no way Airbus can match a Boeing 737 proposal with an equal number of A320neos + A350s. They are not going to give QF A350s for free. QF may not be willing to commit extra capital for wide bodies at this time preferring to get a better understanding of how recovery will look like for them.

At this point I believe QF wants negotiate the narrow bodies and project sunrise separately. They are talking about reassessing the viability of the Project Sunrise entirely, not firming the prices with Airbus. I don’t think they are going to hold up the narrow body replacement as they figure out long haul.
 
aschachter
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:14 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I see this as a MAX 8 order and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some MAX 10 for transcontinental and East Coast (Australia) trunk routes between Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Canberra. There is a question on if they would then retain some 738s for freighter conversions...remember that there are ancient 733s needing replacement.

I could see Boeing combine this with a sweet B789/B78X order as well to make mainline QF all Boeing (minus Project Sunrise).


I agree with the idea of the MAX 8 order, but I doubt very much QF will order the MAX 10 as they have been saying for a while that they are watching and supportive of the NMA or whatever it will be called for the transcontinental and golden triangle..... They have even mentioned the NMA in their regular ASX reporting...
 
aschachter
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:16 pm

I even thought how astute QF are, that they might have been looking at some of the white tail MAXs and a future order, but I think cash flow at the moment is a real issue for Qantas, so an order may be for the future rather than right now
 
Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:19 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Do you honestly think airbus will come in at the price Boeing will potentially come in at?


Depends. What BCA did for IAG? No, not likely. At that point, AB would be selling below cost. For a total package involving Training, Slots, & Spares for these and the 350s QF were already going to get anyway? There is no reason to believe that cannot happen.


And you know the financials of that deal?
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Fuling
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 10:39 pm

Polot wrote:
Fuling wrote:
BrianDromey wrote:
Both the a320 and 737 are in use at the QF group, so this will be interesting.


And with around 100 A321neo/LR/XLR on order for the group, , it does help one picture a domestic fleet of A320neo family aircraft. :scratchchin:

Many of those are earmarked for JetStar. QF has 75 737s alone, it can go either way.


Yeah, I know that. But QF might be able to leverage a nice discount from Airbus for an further order of A320 family.

I know it's a.net, but the A333 were thrown in with the A380 order, so maybe they can do something similar with the A35K order for a handful of discounted NB :stirthepot:
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Mar 23, 2021 11:00 pm

Fuling wrote:
Polot wrote:
Fuling wrote:

And with around 100 A321neo/LR/XLR on order for the group, , it does help one picture a domestic fleet of A320neo family aircraft. :scratchchin:

Many of those are earmarked for JetStar. QF has 75 737s alone, it can go either way.


Yeah, I know that. But QF might be able to leverage a nice discount from Airbus for an further order of A320 family.

I know it's a.net, but the A333 were thrown in with the A380 order, so maybe they can do something similar with the A35K order for a handful of discounted NB :stirthepot:

The size of the order, and the possibility of shutting Boeing out of QF’s narrow body fleet, is enough leverage. The fact that the QF group already has neos on order is actually better leverage for getting discounts from Boeing than further discounts from Airbus.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 12:25 am

Interesting to see which way this will go. Plenty of A320s on order for JQ and partners, I’m not sure they will be needed anytime soon. A Max order though means no retraining to the A320 series.

I’m not sure what exactly their contracts say, absolutely no idea actually, but I wouldn’t be convinced personally of a mixed NEO/Max fleet long term, obviously a number of years to replace all existing 738s but I think it will be one or the other and maybe NMA as a slightly larger alternative where needed which could be ordered with either the NEO or Max.
 
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a36001
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 1:12 am

Getting cash flow back to some form of normality is king at QF right now and will be for the next 1 to 2 years (it is already heading in the right direction), the QF CFO has stated so in QF townhalls. If that means no new orders for the NB fleet for the short to medium term only QF knows the answer to that. It is not as if the 738's are on their last legs, they are all well maintained and can carry on for now. Most are owned outright too if I am correct, so QF have breathing room before they need to order a replacement.

What I do know from my own experience is most of the 'golden oldies' cabin crew would love a Airbus order so they don't have bend down to arm their doors!
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 1:37 am

I'd have to give the edge to Boeing. You would only need differences training for the Max. Obviously the entire fleet would not be replaced on the same day but a gradual replacement. With the Max your crews can fly the NG and Max. Not possible with the A320neo.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 1:48 am

aschachter wrote:
I even thought how astute QF are, that they might have been looking at some of the white tail MAXs and a future order, but I think cash flow at the moment is a real issue for Qantas, so an order may be for the future rather than right now


I don’t understand how they could be placing an order for new narrow body aircraft when they have so many staff stood down in zero pay.

Another factor QF have had in the past with the 737 is workplace injury compensation for baggage loaders, either from lost days at work or compensation awards. One of the reasons JQ uses containers.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
LTEN11
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:11 am

zeke wrote:
aschachter wrote:
I even thought how astute QF are, that they might have been looking at some of the white tail MAXs and a future order, but I think cash flow at the moment is a real issue for Qantas, so an order may be for the future rather than right now


I don’t understand how they could be placing an order for new narrow body aircraft when they have so many staff stood down in zero pay.

Another factor QF have had in the past with the 737 is workplace injury compensation for baggage loaders, either from lost days at work or compensation awards. One of the reasons JQ uses containers.


You've mentioned the compo line before, do you have any links to provide some details ?

In any case, all domestic ground handling is being contracted out, so compo cases aren't going to be QF's problem.

This will be simply down to price and in a further 1000 posts about this competition, it will still be down to price.
 
BHRN
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:14 am

JerseyFlyer wrote:

But Qantas Group has 36 A321XLR s on order, and it is not clear that all of these will go to JQ.



3K and GK could be involved in this order.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:25 am

Those 12 A350-1000s for Project Sunrise are going to be very specialized very small subfleet (not unlike Boeing with the 6 747-400ERs that no one else ordered but Qantas). I don't see those A351s being 'packaged' with a mess of NEOs at firesale prices (when the NEO has a backlog of approx 5600 planes and Boeing is sitting on over 100 8MAX whitetails already built).

This order will go either way. Each manufacturer can cite different advantages. It be crazy to suggest otherwise at this point.
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FischAutoTechGarten is the full handle and it reflects my interest. It's abbreviated to fit A.net short usernames.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 2:59 am

LTEN11 wrote:

You've mentioned the compo line before, do you have any links to provide some details ?

In any case, all domestic ground handling is being contracted out, so compo cases aren't going to be QF's problem.

This will be simply down to price and in a further 1000 posts about this competition, it will still be down to price.


I don’t have specific cases to post as I believe workers compensation cases involve medical information which is not made public for the privacy of those claiming. This is a general article relating to Qantas and the percentage of baggage handlers that have been injured. https://indaily.com.au/news/2013/12/04/ ... -handlers/

“ Evidence given by a Qantas safety advisor at Adelaide airport said that when she began in November 2009, more than one-fifth of the then 116 air services officer (ASO) employees had an ongoing compensation claim.

The high rate meant the airline was unable to provide permanent alternate work to the long-term injured.

The compensation rate had become such a problem, Safework SA imposed an action plan on Qantas designed to reduce the risk and frequency of manual-handling injuries.”

If they are directly employed or subcontracted, the cost of workplace injuries will still be paid by Qantas in one form or another.
“Don't be a show-off. Never be too proud to turn back. There are old pilots and bold pilots, but no old, bold pilots.” E. Hamilton Lee, 1949
 
Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:04 am

zeke wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:

You've mentioned the compo line before, do you have any links to provide some details ?

In any case, all domestic ground handling is being contracted out, so compo cases aren't going to be QF's problem.

This will be simply down to price and in a further 1000 posts about this competition, it will still be down to price.


I don’t have specific cases to post as I believe workers compensation cases involve medical information which is not made public for the privacy of those claiming. This is a general article relating to Qantas and the percentage of baggage handlers that have been injured. https://indaily.com.au/news/2013/12/04/ ... -handlers/

“ Evidence given by a Qantas safety advisor at Adelaide airport said that when she began in November 2009, more than one-fifth of the then 116 air services officer (ASO) employees had an ongoing compensation claim.

The high rate meant the airline was unable to provide permanent alternate work to the long-term injured.

The compensation rate had become such a problem, Safework SA imposed an action plan on Qantas designed to reduce the risk and frequency of manual-handling injuries.”

If they are directly employed or subcontracted, the cost of workplace injuries will still be paid by Qantas in one form or another.


Given than WN operates a 737 fleet ten times the size of QF and don't have issues, I think it's safe to say that there's something else at play (if anything). There are thousands of non containerized craft worldwide.

Causation/Correlation and all that.
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Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:08 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Those 12 A350-1000s for Project Sunrise are going to be very specialized very small subfleet (not unlike Boeing with the 6 747-400ERs that no one else ordered but Qantas). I don't see those A351s being 'packaged' with a mess of NEOs at firesale prices (when the NEO has a backlog of approx 5600 planes and Boeing is sitting on over 100 8MAX whitetails already built).

This order will go either way. Each manufacturer can cite different advantages. It be crazy to suggest otherwise at this point.


Agree with this 100%

Both types are in play. And that's on the price and each model's own merits and flaws. QF will find the one that works best for them.
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