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ewt340
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:26 am

Here is the thing, we know for a fact (for now) that JetStar is betting on A320neo, A321neo and B787 as their backbone. So these 3 are not going anywhere.

We hear nice thing about A321XLR from Joyce so far. We know that there is a really high chance for Qantas to utilize A321XLR in the future from secondary market like Cairns.

Looking at the composition for Qantas fleet right now. We got this:
- Aging A330, almost all of them are between the age of 10-18 years of age.
- A380, too big, unprofitable and currently beached themself at SoCal.
- B737NG, too uneconomical compared to A320neo or Virgin Australia's upcoming MAX10.
- B787, the only model that currently make sense.

So, looking at this, I could Qantas following JetStar by ditching their A330 in the future, and goes all out with both A320neo, A321neo and B787. And maybe potential A350 in the future.

It only make sense if they do that.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:58 am

ewt340 wrote:
Here is the thing, we know for a fact (for now) that JetStar is betting on A320neo, A321neo and B787 as their backbone. So these 3 are not going anywhere.

We hear nice thing about A321XLR from Joyce so far. We know that there is a really high chance for Qantas to utilize A321XLR in the future from secondary market like Cairns.

Looking at the composition for Qantas fleet right now. We got this:
- Aging A330, almost all of them are between the age of 10-18 years of age.
- A380, too big, unprofitable and currently beached themself at SoCal.
- B737NG, too uneconomical compared to A320neo or Virgin Australia's upcoming MAX10.
- B787, the only model that currently make sense.

So, looking at this, I could Qantas following JetStar by ditching their A330 in the future, and goes all out with both A320neo, A321neo and B787. And maybe potential A350 in the future.

It only make sense if they do that.


I am not sure about most of what you say here.

We are not sure if JQ will use the 787 again, no proof either way, likely they will use some though for the longest routes atleast.

QF use A321 from CNS? To where? Ok like CNS but QF mainline have zero International flights from CNS, while JQ used 787s to Japan. ADL-SIN sure I would believe but not CNS.

A330s are still efficient at what they do, yes the older are getting older but are probably good for another 5 years, JQ 787s transfer to QF to replace them?

A380, QF took a large write down on the fleet, Joyce even said they are good in specific markets where curfews and time zones mean less travel windows in terms of arrival departure times, LAX/LHR etc, weather all 12 return remains to be seen but 6 have been refitted and there is a high chance those will return when needed from 2023 on.

737NG is still efficient, sure not as much as the NEO or MAX but the majority of the fleet is owned I believe and paid off, as this thread is about the oldest will need replacing from around mid decade, but will take 10 years to replace the whole fleet.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:46 am

Wouldn't the A223 with a possible A225 in the future be an option for QF? It would give them an operational benefit over Virgin. But the downside is that they would be introducing an complete new type which would break with the 737 or A32x...
 
moa999
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:49 am

JonesNL wrote:
Wouldn't the A223 with a possible A225 in the future be an option for QF? It would give them an operational benefit over Virgin. ...


In what way? If you can fill the aircraft the 737-800, and later 737-10 will have a far lower cost per seat
 
ewt340
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:50 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Here is the thing, we know for a fact (for now) that JetStar is betting on A320neo, A321neo and B787 as their backbone. So these 3 are not going anywhere.

We hear nice thing about A321XLR from Joyce so far. We know that there is a really high chance for Qantas to utilize A321XLR in the future from secondary market like Cairns.

Looking at the composition for Qantas fleet right now. We got this:
- Aging A330, almost all of them are between the age of 10-18 years of age.
- A380, too big, unprofitable and currently beached themself at SoCal.
- B737NG, too uneconomical compared to A320neo or Virgin Australia's upcoming MAX10.
- B787, the only model that currently make sense.

So, looking at this, I could Qantas following JetStar by ditching their A330 in the future, and goes all out with both A320neo, A321neo and B787. And maybe potential A350 in the future.

It only make sense if they do that.


I am not sure about most of what you say here.

We are not sure if JQ will use the 787 again, no proof either way, likely they will use some though for the longest routes atleast.

QF use A321 from CNS? To where? Ok like CNS but QF mainline have zero International flights from CNS, while JQ used 787s to Japan. ADL-SIN sure I would believe but not CNS.

A330s are still efficient at what they do, yes the older are getting older but are probably good for another 5 years, JQ 787s transfer to QF to replace them?

A380, QF took a large write down on the fleet, Joyce even said they are good in specific markets where curfews and time zones mean less travel windows in terms of arrival departure times, LAX/LHR etc, weather all 12 return remains to be seen but 6 have been refitted and there is a high chance those will return when needed from 2023 on.

737NG is still efficient, sure not as much as the NEO or MAX but the majority of the fleet is owned I believe and paid off, as this thread is about the oldest will need replacing from around mid decade, but will take 10 years to replace the whole fleet.


Based on Qantas media release in 2019. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ange-a321/

What I'm saying is, it seems like A321XLR would fly with the mainline, if that happen A320neo would be a logical choice to replace B737-800. Why would they keep operating B737 in their fleet when Jetstar operate A320neo/A321neo and Qantas plan to operate A321XLR. Seems like the choice is already being made.
Last edited by ewt340 on Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
astuteman
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:56 am

Rifitto wrote:
as i said in the previous reply ,it's all about how QF intends to use them
if they need the range ,the 321NEO is their best choice ,even at higher price
if they are going to fly short domestic routes ,the -10 can do it better


So just to take us off the anorak stats to rebut unfounded claims treadmill.....

I suspect the differentiators will be, in order:-

1. Price - QF are known to be very conservative on capital outlay - up to the OEM's here
2. Commonality with existing fleet - superficially seems to lean towards the MAX, but we do know that after the grounding the MAX WILL come with a conversion cost. We also know that the GROUP operates, and has ordered NEO's, so possibly a bit more nuanced than the superficial view..
3. Operational use... I don't know if the MAX has a short range efficiency advantage, or if so, how much... nobody seems keen to post data, only rhetoric.

FCOM's posted by user Mandala 499 a long time ago (for 738 winglet vs A320 no sharklet - same airline) showed the 738 with a 5% advantage at 100Nm, disappearing to 0% at 700Nm, and the A320 having a 4% advantage at 2,000Nm. These obviously moved in favour of the A320 once sharklets were added.
Thinking about the trend rather than the numbers, it implies that any efficiency advantage the 737MAX has at short range (if it even has one) is shorter lived than the linear model proposed by RJMAV - in the example above (which conveniently starts with a 5% advantage), disappearing by 700Nm...
I've not seen any data on the length of sectors flown by QF on average, but it will likely play into the mix.
I also note their 738's have 174 seats - presumably the -8 MAX would be similar, but the A320NEO slightly less if it were chosen.
Probably not a good time just now to discuss LF's

I don't see availability being an issue - it looks like the delivery window is quite long.

Rgds
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:58 am

JonesNL wrote:
Wouldn't the A223 with a possible A225 in the future be an option for QF? It would give them an operational benefit over Virgin. But the downside is that they would be introducing an complete new type which would break with the 737 or A32x...


When the A225 was mentioned in this thread I thought it was highly unlikely, but the more I think about it might, might be a good option. Just because they only operate the 73H at the moment doesn’t mean that it is the perfect size. Replacing the 737 fleet with a mix of A225 and A321, to go high and low as it were, could be a good mix, with A223 added on to replace the 717s. The issue I see with this is that they would probably want the 717 replacement to be flown by QantasLink, but if National Jet or Network to fly half of the 737 replacements then that would go down like a lead balloon with the mainline unions.
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astuteman
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:15 am

RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
i.e. the 4,700Nm XLR with 1 x ACT is penalised by a whole 700kg OEW over the 3,500Nm stock NEO with 1 x ACT
A 1.4% increase in OEW to achieve a 34.3% increase in range.... :faint:
And you want to make that an issue? :)

That sure does sound amazing but the A321XLR exchanges payload for half of that extra range. The brochure range of 4,700nm is with a significantly reduced payload of around 160 passengers from memory. So it flies 34.3% further with around 20% less payload. .


I'll give you 10 out of 10 for entertainment value at least :)

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

In a 175 to 200 passenger, three-class layout with business-class lie-flat seats, premium economy and economy cabins, the XLR will be able to range out as far as 4,700 nautical miles, or 8,700 kilometers. At the plane's maximum 244-seat passenger capacity, the range drops to 4,000 nautical miles, or 7,400 kilometers.


If you look at the range/payload analysis - it will take the same payload as the 737-10 out to 4,400Nm - 4,500Nm..... or 35% further

Rgds
 
LTEN11
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 9:41 am

astuteman wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
astuteman wrote:
i.e. the 4,700Nm XLR with 1 x ACT is penalised by a whole 700kg OEW over the 3,500Nm stock NEO with 1 x ACT
A 1.4% increase in OEW to achieve a 34.3% increase in range.... :faint:
And you want to make that an issue? :)

That sure does sound amazing but the A321XLR exchanges payload for half of that extra range. The brochure range of 4,700nm is with a significantly reduced payload of around 160 passengers from memory. So it flies 34.3% further with around 20% less payload. .


I'll give you 10 out of 10 for entertainment value at least :)

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

In a 175 to 200 passenger, three-class layout with business-class lie-flat seats, premium economy and economy cabins, the XLR will be able to range out as far as 4,700 nautical miles, or 8,700 kilometers. At the plane's maximum 244-seat passenger capacity, the range drops to 4,000 nautical miles, or 7,400 kilometers.


If you look at the range/payload analysis - it will take the same payload as the 737-10 out to 4,400Nm - 4,500Nm..... or 35% further

Rgds


That's great if you need that extra 35% range, I just can't see where QF would possibly need an aircraft of this size, with that much capability.

Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ? That's just not the way QF works. As people constantly bemoan, they are conservative with the routes they fly. Every one of them is a large destination, with the exception of some of the N.Z. routes, POM, NOU and Nadi, everyone of them justifies the use of a wide body aircraft and if they can't do that themselves, they'll code share with someone else, or hub you through another port on a partner airline.

JQ on the other hand is the groups airline that can use the extra capability, but even there, I fail to see the justification of the XLR, when the LR will more than suffice. Of course that will also depend on the market recovery and whether JQ will put the 787 back into service, though they did say they may bring a few back to fly domestic routes, as they are getting up to pre-covid levels on the domestic front.

So as far as I'm concerned, the main focus will be on the 320neo and 738max, any larger models would only be ordered as a small percentage of the order. If QF do go with the NEO, it will be interesting to see how it plays out with the unions, it would be hard to justify paying higher rates to QF staff, when JQ operate the same equipment. Just one of the many things to be worked on, before an order will be placed.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:19 am

tullamarine wrote:
aschachter wrote:
Rajahdhani wrote:
Also, or, in addition to this decision - could QF not take advantage of a glutton on current generation aircraft (not MAX, or NEO) at decent prices as well? I mean, perhaps instead of, or in addition to - QF could pick up easily and lightly used 738s or A32Xs right now and supplement capacity, and wait it out for the best deal from the manufacturers?



I don't think QF are cashed up, considering COVID, to purchase any new or used aircraft at the moment and if they really need capacity there are stored A332s and if really required they could bring more stored A320s from Jetstar Japan or Jetstar Asia into Australia as they are already doing for Jetstar Australia...

These used aircraft will all have different cabin, seating and galley configurations from what QF wants. If QF are going to add to their fleet, they want a standard configuration not a hotch-potch. The replacement of the 73Ws is not urgent; they have more than enough capacity available for any imminent growth given their entire international fleet is currently parked.



Qantas does not have 73W's. Thats the code for the 7370BBJ with winglets. Theirs seem to be all 73H.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:28 am

LTEN11 wrote:
Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ?


Isn’t that exactly what they’re doing with project sunrise? New services based on planes that were not previously available. Which is exactly what we were told airlines would be doing with those super-duper 787s - suddenly new routes would be more viable because of the plane’s efficiency.
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:35 am

scbriml wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ?


Isn’t that exactly what they’re doing with project sunrise? New services based on planes that were not previously available. Which is exactly what we were told airlines would be doing with those super-duper 787s - suddenly new routes would be more viable because of the plane’s efficiency.


To be fair the 787 has opened up quite a few new routes. PER-LHR is an obvious example. There are also quite a few new routes from NRT to the US which were not considered viable previously but opened with the 787, such as SJC, SAN, BOS and DEN.
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scbriml
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:39 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
scbriml wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ?


Isn’t that exactly what they’re doing with project sunrise? New services based on planes that were not previously available. Which is exactly what we were told airlines would be doing with those super-duper 787s - suddenly new routes would be more viable because of the plane’s efficiency.


To be fair the 787 has opened up quite a few new routes. PER-LHR is an obvious example. There are also quite a few new routes from NRT to the US which were not considered viable previously but opened with the 787, such as SJC, SAN, BOS and DEN.


Yes, that was exactly my point - airlines do open new routes when a suitable plane becomes available. I don’t see why QF would be any different when it comes to the A321XLR.
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There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
astuteman
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:45 am

LTEN11 wrote:
astuteman wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
That sure does sound amazing but the A321XLR exchanges payload for half of that extra range. The brochure range of 4,700nm is with a significantly reduced payload of around 160 passengers from memory. So it flies 34.3% further with around 20% less payload. .


I'll give you 10 out of 10 for entertainment value at least :)

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

In a 175 to 200 passenger, three-class layout with business-class lie-flat seats, premium economy and economy cabins, the XLR will be able to range out as far as 4,700 nautical miles, or 8,700 kilometers. At the plane's maximum 244-seat passenger capacity, the range drops to 4,000 nautical miles, or 7,400 kilometers.


If you look at the range/payload analysis - it will take the same payload as the 737-10 out to 4,400Nm - 4,500Nm..... or 35% further

Rgds


That's great if you need that extra 35% range, I just can't see where QF would possibly need an aircraft of this size, with that much capability.

Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ? That's just not the way QF works. As people constantly bemoan, they are conservative with the routes they fly. Every one of them is a large destination, with the exception of some of the N.Z. routes, POM, NOU and Nadi, everyone of them justifies the use of a wide body aircraft and if they can't do that themselves, they'll code share with someone else, or hub you through another port on a partner airline.

JQ on the other hand is the groups airline that can use the extra capability, but even there, I fail to see the justification of the XLR, when the LR will more than suffice. Of course that will also depend on the market recovery and whether JQ will put the 787 back into service, though they did say they may bring a few back to fly domestic routes, as they are getting up to pre-covid levels on the domestic front.

So as far as I'm concerned, the main focus will be on the 320neo and 738max, any larger models would only be ordered as a small percentage of the order. If QF do go with the NEO, it will be interesting to see how it plays out with the unions, it would be hard to justify paying higher rates to QF staff, when JQ operate the same equipment. Just one of the many things to be worked on, before an order will be placed.


Agree. Academic conversation in 2 ways -
1. QF Group have already ordered the A321XLR, (your lack of justification notwithstanding) and
2. The QF 738 replacement will almost certainly be between the A320NEO and 738MAX as you say.

Not sure where the XLR conversation originated (probably from someone's notion that a 737-10 would be in the mix...), but unvalidated, and invalid, claims were being made....

Rgds
 
rbavfan
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:48 am

LTEN11 wrote:
astuteman wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
That sure does sound amazing but the A321XLR exchanges payload for half of that extra range. The brochure range of 4,700nm is with a significantly reduced payload of around 160 passengers from memory. So it flies 34.3% further with around 20% less payload. .


I'll give you 10 out of 10 for entertainment value at least :)

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

In a 175 to 200 passenger, three-class layout with business-class lie-flat seats, premium economy and economy cabins, the XLR will be able to range out as far as 4,700 nautical miles, or 8,700 kilometers. At the plane's maximum 244-seat passenger capacity, the range drops to 4,000 nautical miles, or 7,400 kilometers.


If you look at the range/payload analysis - it will take the same payload as the 737-10 out to 4,400Nm - 4,500Nm..... or 35% further

Rgds


That's great if you need that extra 35% range, I just can't see where QF would possibly need an aircraft of this size, with that much capability.

Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ? That's just not the way QF works. As people constantly bemoan, they are conservative with the routes they fly. Every one of them is a large destination, with the exception of some of the N.Z. routes, POM, NOU and Nadi, everyone of them justifies the use of a wide body aircraft and if they can't do that themselves, they'll code share with someone else, or hub you through another port on a partner airline.

JQ on the other hand is the groups airline that can use the extra capability, but even there, I fail to see the justification of the XLR, when the LR will more than suffice. Of course that will also depend on the market recovery and whether JQ will put the 787 back into service, though they did say they may bring a few back to fly domestic routes, as they are getting up to pre-covid levels on the domestic front.

So as far as I'm concerned, the main focus will be on the 320neo and 738max, any larger models would only be ordered as a small percentage of the order. If QF do go with the NEO, it will be interesting to see how it plays out with the unions, it would be hard to justify paying higher rates to QF staff, when JQ operate the same equipment. Just one of the many things to be worked on, before an order will be placed.


Note the XLR has greater range with more cargo capacity due to the Rear tank replaceing ACT's. So they can fly farther with added cargo volume. Makes sense based on some of the routes to smaller non WB international markets.
 
budgetflyer
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:03 am

LTEN11 wrote:
astuteman wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
That sure does sound amazing but the A321XLR exchanges payload for half of that extra range. The brochure range of 4,700nm is with a significantly reduced payload of around 160 passengers from memory. So it flies 34.3% further with around 20% less payload. .


I'll give you 10 out of 10 for entertainment value at least :)

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... index.html

In a 175 to 200 passenger, three-class layout with business-class lie-flat seats, premium economy and economy cabins, the XLR will be able to range out as far as 4,700 nautical miles, or 8,700 kilometers. At the plane's maximum 244-seat passenger capacity, the range drops to 4,000 nautical miles, or 7,400 kilometers.


If you look at the range/payload analysis - it will take the same payload as the 737-10 out to 4,400Nm - 4,500Nm..... or 35% further

Rgds


That's great if you need that extra 35% range, I just can't see where QF would possibly need an aircraft of this size, with that much capability.

Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ? That's just not the way QF works. As people constantly bemoan, they are conservative with the routes they fly. Every one of them is a large destination, with the exception of some of the N.Z. routes, POM, NOU and Nadi, everyone of them justifies the use of a wide body aircraft and if they can't do that themselves, they'll code share with someone else, or hub you through another port on a partner airline.


I’d say that QF’s conservative route network is a product of their high cost base and greater reliance on O/D versus their competitors.

What the A321XLR would allow QF to do is to enter slightly smaller (but still large) destinations, such as KUL, TPE and ICN and skim off 150 or so high-yielding pax per day without having to discount heavily to fill up the rest of the plane.

Qantas would also be able to improve their offering to corporate and high-yield leisure customers by operating more frequencies on existing routes such as BNE-SIN or SYD-CGK. QF must be innovative if they wish to continue to grow in Asia, and I believe that the XLR is the best tool on the market for that. Even if QF choose the MAX for their short-haul needs, I still see an opportunity for a dozen or so XLR frames at mainline for growth and also to replace some A330 international flying.
 
NZ321
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:48 pm

While I can see Boeing as in the running as the incumbent, my gut feeling is that, in this sector of the market, the order will go to Airbus. JQ = Airbus. NZ = Airbus. The A321 has a lot more to offer QF than the 737 equivalent in terms of passenger comfort, logistics and range, with A320 not far behind ,and even the A220 can be the 717 replacement. . No tangible argument otherwise, given the way QF / JQ have played their cards and the current lineup from Boeing.The 737 - it's day is nearly done. Times are changing. I see it's time is up for review yet again. I doubt it will survive much longer in its current form. Time to move - onwards and upwards.That's where I'd put my money.
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Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:27 pm

NZ321 wrote:
While I can see Boeing as in the running as the incumbent, my gut feeling is that, in this sector of the market, the order will go to Airbus. JQ = Airbus. NZ = Airbus. The A321 has a lot more to offer QF than the 737 equivalent in terms of passenger comfort, logistics and range, with A320 not far behind ,and even the A220 can be the 717 replacement. . No tangible argument otherwise, given the way QF / JQ have played their cards and the current lineup from Boeing.The 737 - it's day is nearly done. Times are changing. I see it's time is up for review yet again. I doubt it will survive much longer in its current form. Time to move - onwards and upwards.That's where I'd put my money.


I don't think QF cares what NZ has.

The order could very well end up with the a320neo family, but it won't be due to passenger comfort or range. Unlike a.net, the former is meaningless to airlines and the latter's importance is grossly overstated for all markets (it matters in some markets, as evidenced by the large order book, but not every customer needs or cares). Future fleet goals, price and availability tend to outweigh everything else.
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:13 pm

zkojq wrote:
QF has lots of A380 deposit money still at Airbus.


I don't believe this is the case and hasn't been for quite some time.

Would the Airbus A220 be in the running for the competition? Does Qantas have a need for a slightly smaller aircraft? I know everyone is always bleating on about replacing like with like, or replacing things with a bigger narrowbody, but would something slightly smaller suit them better?

Again, with Western Sydney Airport coming up in a few years, new runway at BNE and so on, the congestion issues at Sydney will be a thing of the past, and so more frequency would be possible, or it would be possible to better match capacity with demand with a smaller aircraft.

Could it be a split order? I don't think it necessarily HAS to be a 737 or an A320 series aircraft that replaces the 738 fleet. However, the CSeries (I mean, A220) would be the smallest I could see them going.
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Rajahdhani
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 7:47 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
Again, with Western Sydney Airport coming up in a few years, new runway at BNE and so on, the congestion issues at Sydney will be a thing of the past, and so more frequency would be possible, or it would be possible to better match capacity with demand with a smaller aircraft.
However, the CSeries (I mean, A220) would be the smallest I could see them going.


I apologize in editing your quotes, however I wished to applaud this thought as it really adds a depth to the conversation for me as well. The ethos of A380 operations (at least with QF) relied upon slot restrictions to maintain the business case. The new airport, sans a curfew - would likely enable more interesting use of aircraft (and I could easily see that knocking down, to the A220, with range and capacity to handle expansions via capacity and frequency additions). I mean, it's interesting to consider.

While I would love to see the A220 with QF, though - here's the gcmap of the published A220 ranges, from SYD.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3400nm%40SYD&R=3450nm%40SYD

Save for Antartica, there's a lot of Ocean out there. Can decently priced A220s help A320/1NEO(LR/XLRs) for deeper growth? Backing to the logic of those above, it's not as if Airbus has to help here, as backlogs and pricing power here favors Airbus. It would be a decent opportunity for both parties, and echoing as above - not one that Boeing could match in offer over such a diverse range of seats/ranges.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 8:15 pm

My money is on Boeing. The MAX needs a good "win" from a bluechip customer and I believe Boeing is willing to come in at a price that makes that happen. Airbus isn't having any trouble selling the NEO, they simply don't *NEED* to come in at a bargain basement price to move product.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:15 pm

Rajahdhani wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:
Again, with Western Sydney Airport coming up in a few years, new runway at BNE and so on, the congestion issues at Sydney will be a thing of the past, and so more frequency would be possible, or it would be possible to better match capacity with demand with a smaller aircraft.
However, the CSeries (I mean, A220) would be the smallest I could see them going.


I apologize in editing your quotes, however I wished to applaud this thought as it really adds a depth to the conversation for me as well. The ethos of A380 operations (at least with QF) relied upon slot restrictions to maintain the business case. The new airport, sans a curfew - would likely enable more interesting use of aircraft (and I could easily see that knocking down, to the A220, with range and capacity to handle expansions via capacity and frequency additions). I mean, it's interesting to consider.

While I would love to see the A220 with QF, though - here's the gcmap of the published A220 ranges, from SYD.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=3400nm%40SYD&R=3450nm%40SYD

Save for Antartica, there's a lot of Ocean out there. Can decently priced A220s help A320/1NEO(LR/XLRs) for deeper growth? Backing to the logic of those above, it's not as if Airbus has to help here, as backlogs and pricing power here favors Airbus. It would be a decent opportunity for both parties, and echoing as above - not one that Boeing could match in offer over such a diverse range of seats/ranges.

Interesting map. It shows that most of Indonesia is in reach. Imagine all the direct flights to smaller islands or third tier cities they can try with the A220. There is a massive indonesian population in the big cities who Love direct flights. Same with the whole of New Zeeland.
 
timtam
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:46 pm

Lots of interesting speculation.

You have two (or 3) excellent aircraft in the running with not a lot of difference between them. So the winner will come down to who puts the best commercial deal to QF and that is something that is up to the bidding parties commercial groups.

Another way of putting this is the engineering will have some influence but the accountants will make the decision based on the dollars.

For example if cost of conversion is an issue, one party can simply offer to pay for the cost of conversion and therefore eliminate that as an issue.

It will come down to who has the sharpest pencil.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:09 am

On the SYD congestion issue, I can’t see that it is a major thing in terms of the NB choice. SYD-MEL (pre-Covid) was already a 30 min schedule, alternating A330 and 738 in the peaks. Being able to make a 15 min service across the two airports isn’t going to make things significantly more attractive.

If A220 was a good choice as a turboprop replacement in our market I might see a need, but QFs history favours commonality, with fewer types in the overall fleet.
S340/J31/146-300/F27/F50/Nord 262/ Q100/200/E195/ 733/734/738/744/762/763/77W/788/789/ 320/321/332/333/345/359
 
LTEN11
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 1:27 am

scbriml wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ?


Isn’t that exactly what they’re doing with project sunrise? New services based on planes that were not previously available. Which is exactly what we were told airlines would be doing with those super-duper 787s - suddenly new routes would be more viable because of the plane’s efficiency.


The starting destinations, LHR/JFK are /were existing destinations, if sunrise goes ahead, it is only a current flight being re-routed to a non stop and will be priced accordingly.

I still can't see any new destinations that would suddenly become attractive to QF because they have the XLR.
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 3:33 am

Kent350787 wrote:
On the SYD congestion issue, I can’t see that it is a major thing in terms of the NB choice. SYD-MEL (pre-Covid) was already a 30 min schedule, alternating A330 and 738 in the peaks. Being able to make a 15 min service across the two airports isn’t going to make things significantly more attractive.

If A220 was a good choice as a turboprop replacement in our market I might see a need, but QFs history favours commonality, with fewer types in the overall fleet.


In the peaks there was actually a 15 min interval on QF, certainly in the mornings anyway. When they retired the 763s, they lost alot of capacity with the A330s taking up more gate space and longer turns than the 767s, The A330s generally only did 1 rotation in each direction in the AM and then again in the PM. Pre covid there wasnt alot of slack in the A330s schedule between intl runs and transcon.

While A330s replaced the 767s on the SYD/MEL-PER flights, generally they are a little big for the BNE runs which is a shame as the 737s suck on that flight.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 3:53 am

ewt340 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Here is the thing, we know for a fact (for now) that JetStar is betting on A320neo, A321neo and B787 as their backbone. So these 3 are not going anywhere.

We hear nice thing about A321XLR from Joyce so far. We know that there is a really high chance for Qantas to utilize A321XLR in the future from secondary market like Cairns.

Looking at the composition for Qantas fleet right now. We got this:
- Aging A330, almost all of them are between the age of 10-18 years of age.
- A380, too big, unprofitable and currently beached themself at SoCal.
- B737NG, too uneconomical compared to A320neo or Virgin Australia's upcoming MAX10.
- B787, the only model that currently make sense.

So, looking at this, I could Qantas following JetStar by ditching their A330 in the future, and goes all out with both A320neo, A321neo and B787. And maybe potential A350 in the future.

It only make sense if they do that.


I am not sure about most of what you say here.

We are not sure if JQ will use the 787 again, no proof either way, likely they will use some though for the longest routes atleast.

QF use A321 from CNS? To where? Ok like CNS but QF mainline have zero International flights from CNS, while JQ used 787s to Japan. ADL-SIN sure I would believe but not CNS.

A330s are still efficient at what they do, yes the older are getting older but are probably good for another 5 years, JQ 787s transfer to QF to replace them?

A380, QF took a large write down on the fleet, Joyce even said they are good in specific markets where curfews and time zones mean less travel windows in terms of arrival departure times, LAX/LHR etc, weather all 12 return remains to be seen but 6 have been refitted and there is a high chance those will return when needed from 2023 on.

737NG is still efficient, sure not as much as the NEO or MAX but the majority of the fleet is owned I believe and paid off, as this thread is about the oldest will need replacing from around mid decade, but will take 10 years to replace the whole fleet.


Based on Qantas media release in 2019. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ange-a321/

What I'm saying is, it seems like A321XLR would fly with the mainline, if that happen A320neo would be a logical choice to replace B737-800. Why would they keep operating B737 in their fleet when Jetstar operate A320neo/A321neo and Qantas plan to operate A321XLR. Seems like the choice is already being made.


JQ used to fly MEL-SIN, it was purely used as an example that QF could use it there.JQ use a 787 CNS-NRT/KIX which could be done by an A321NEO, years ago there were 747s with QF.

The reality is you could say why did JQ get A320s when QF had 737s already. The thing to me is that the QF group have 110 options on the NEO and may decide to use them for QF, remember though QF would have to retrain 737 crew to the A320, Joyce has also made mention of the A220, maybe some of those NEO options could be converted to the A220, these would be IMO more of a 717 replacement on the smaller end and some regional 737 routes, for the main I see the A220 as to small for SYD/MEL/BNE. Maybe A Max order and A220s for QF is possible.

It’s a bit premature to say QF will order the NEO however. He has mentioned Boeing’s NMA but even Boeing don’t know what that will look like yet so that’s a way out of QF were to buy the NMA.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:36 am

LTEN11 wrote:
scbriml wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
Do people think that QF are suddenly going to open up a whole new range of routes, just because they have an aircraft that could operate them ?


Isn’t that exactly what they’re doing with project sunrise? New services based on planes that were not previously available. Which is exactly what we were told airlines would be doing with those super-duper 787s - suddenly new routes would be more viable because of the plane’s efficiency.


The starting destinations, LHR/JFK are /were existing destinations, if sunrise goes ahead, it is only a current flight being re-routed to a non stop and will be priced accordingly.

I still can't see any new destinations that would suddenly become attractive to QF because they have the XLR.


It's a new service based on the capabilities of a plane that wasn't available before. You can't see any, or don't want to see any new routes that XLR would make possible?
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vhtje
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:41 am

ClassicLover wrote:
Again, with Western Sydney Airport coming up in a few years, new runway at BNE and so on, the congestion issues at Sydney will be a thing of the past, and so more frequency would be possible, or it would be possible to better match capacity with demand with a smaller aircraft.

Could it be a split order? I don't think it necessarily HAS to be a 737 or an A320 series aircraft that replaces the 738 fleet. However, the CSeries (I mean, A220) would be the smallest I could see them going.


Non-COVID, in the AM and PM peak, there are departures SYD/MEL every fifteen minutes! And that’s just QF. It spreads out to half-hourly, and then hourly during non-peak periods.

At least in the Golden Triangle, I cannot see that frequency is an issue QF need to address on this order.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
LTEN11
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:17 am

scbriml wrote:
LTEN11 wrote:
scbriml wrote:

Isn’t that exactly what they’re doing with project sunrise? New services based on planes that were not previously available. Which is exactly what we were told airlines would be doing with those super-duper 787s - suddenly new routes would be more viable because of the plane’s efficiency.


The starting destinations, LHR/JFK are /were existing destinations, if sunrise goes ahead, it is only a current flight being re-routed to a non stop and will be priced accordingly.

I still can't see any new destinations that would suddenly become attractive to QF because they have the XLR.


It's a new service based on the capabilities of a plane that wasn't available before. You can't see any, or don't want to see any new routes that XLR would make possible?


I'd love to see QF fly to a whole new range of destinations, some they have previously served and some completely new ones, but it's just not the way QF operate. and the way they operate is successful and profitable. They've even tried some of those destinations with JQ are they still didn't work. The only way I can see QF using the 321 would be to SIN and DPS , SIN from PER and maybe ADL. DPS from most Australian ports, but considering it is more the domain of JQ it would be unnecessary luxury and could be done with the LR, if not with a standard 321NEO.
 
tealnz
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:13 pm

Antarius wrote:
The order could very well end up with the a320neo family, but it won't be due to passenger comfort or range. Unlike a.net, the former is meaningless to airlines and the latter's importance is grossly overstated for all markets (it matters in some markets, as evidenced by the large order book, but not every customer needs or cares). Future fleet goals, price and availability tend to outweigh everything else.

Meaningless? Depends. For some markets and some airlines it matters. Seriously. QF is one airline that has put pax experience at the heart of its brand and business model. 70 fewer seats than NZ in the 789 for example. QF even set up a separate airline (JQ) so it could segregate off the “comfort is meaningless” part of the market.

And this is a reality even for domestic – look at the investment QF has made in the business travel experience on domestic. Choice of airframe and fit-out is one of the fundamentals for pax experience. And as we see in US transcontinental market the A321 offers possibilities for premium experience that the bigger 737s struggle to match.

I’m not saying that will drive the selection, but it will have to be a factor.
 
Antarius
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:24 pm

tealnz wrote:
Antarius wrote:
The order could very well end up with the a320neo family, but it won't be due to passenger comfort or range. Unlike a.net, the former is meaningless to airlines and the latter's importance is grossly overstated for all markets (it matters in some markets, as evidenced by the large order book, but not every customer needs or cares). Future fleet goals, price and availability tend to outweigh everything else.

Meaningless? Depends. For some markets and some airlines it matters. Seriously. QF is one airline that has put pax experience at the heart of its brand and business model. 70 fewer seats than NZ in the 789 for example. QF even set up a separate airline (JQ) so it could segregate off the “comfort is meaningless” part of the market.

And this is a reality even for domestic – look at the investment QF has made in the business travel experience on domestic. Choice of airframe and fit-out is one of the fundamentals for pax experience. And as we see in US transcontinental market the A321 offers possibilities for premium experience that the bigger 737s struggle to match.

I’m not saying that will drive the selection, but it will have to be a factor.


There is a difference between seating configuration, hard and soft product (which are important) and this a.net obsession with aircraft size and width, that history shows us is completely meaningless. That extra half inch of space is not why any airline has selected the a320 over the 737, nor is the 2-3-2 config of a 767 why someone chose it over an a330, not is 2-4-2 on an a330 why it was chosen over a 777.

Comfort matters. But that is because of what the airline does, not what the airframe is. If that extra smidge of width was so important, then QF wouldn't be flying 75 737s right now, nor would 10,000+ have been delivered. And everyone would be flying 767s around instead of a350s, 787s, a330s and 777s (which is the exact opposite of what is happening). The number 1 selling widebody of all time has a objectively shitty seating config for most airlines (3-4-3) and it still holds the podium.

The a320 vs 737 battle for QF will be down to price, availability and fit to their long term fleet plan.
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ClassicLover
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 8:50 pm

Antarius wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Antarius wrote:
The order could very well end up with the a320neo family, but it won't be due to passenger comfort or range. Unlike a.net, the former is meaningless to airlines and the latter's importance is grossly overstated for all markets (it matters in some markets, as evidenced by the large order book, but not every customer needs or cares). Future fleet goals, price and availability tend to outweigh everything else.

Meaningless? Depends. For some markets and some airlines it matters. Seriously. QF is one airline that has put pax experience at the heart of its brand and business model. 70 fewer seats than NZ in the 789 for example. QF even set up a separate airline (JQ) so it could segregate off the “comfort is meaningless” part of the market.

And this is a reality even for domestic – look at the investment QF has made in the business travel experience on domestic. Choice of airframe and fit-out is one of the fundamentals for pax experience. And as we see in US transcontinental market the A321 offers possibilities for premium experience that the bigger 737s struggle to match.

I’m not saying that will drive the selection, but it will have to be a factor.


There is a difference between seating configuration, hard and soft product (which are important) and this a.net obsession with aircraft size and width, that history shows us is completely meaningless. That extra half inch of space is not why any airline has selected the a320 over the 737, nor is the 2-3-2 config of a 767 why someone chose it over an a330, not is 2-4-2 on an a330 why it was chosen over a 777.

Comfort matters. But that is because of what the airline does, not what the airframe is. If that extra smidge of width was so important, then QF wouldn't be flying 75 737s right now, nor would 10,000+ have been delivered. And everyone would be flying 767s around instead of a350s, 787s, a330s and 777s (which is the exact opposite of what is happening). The number 1 selling widebody of all time has a objectively shitty seating config for most airlines (3-4-3) and it still holds the podium.

The a320 vs 737 battle for QF will be down to price, availability and fit to their long term fleet plan.


I wish I could frame your reply, it's spot on!
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
rbavfan
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:39 pm

aschachter wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
737-10 will win this with 199 seats in a 2 class cabin.

Image

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max10/index.page


Sorry, but no, it will be 737-8s as they seem to be a good fit and more versatile, as can be seem by how many 737-800s they operate and also the 737-10 would only be needed for the golden triangle.

Also, some more knowledgeable in this forum will advise, but I would think a 737-10 would need at least an additional cabin crew member based on the number of passengers and also QF have mentioned many times that they would prefer a NMA type aircraft for the golden triangle that could also be operated into Asia and to replace some of the domestic A330s.


the 737-8 & 737-9 are both between 151 & 200 seats and require the same 4 FA's.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:31 pm

rbavfan wrote:
aschachter wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
737-10 will win this with 199 seats in a 2 class cabin.

Image

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max10/index.page


Sorry, but no, it will be 737-8s as they seem to be a good fit and more versatile, as can be seem by how many 737-800s they operate and also the 737-10 would only be needed for the golden triangle.

Also, some more knowledgeable in this forum will advise, but I would think a 737-10 would need at least an additional cabin crew member based on the number of passengers and also QF have mentioned many times that they would prefer a NMA type aircraft for the golden triangle that could also be operated into Asia and to replace some of the domestic A330s.


the 737-8 & 737-9 are both between 151 & 200 seats and require the same 4 FA's.


Read the thread! It has already been said that Australian CASA does NOT have a 1:50 rule, unlike the FAA and most other regulators. Stop saying that it does!! And if you don’t know what you are talking about then don’t comment.

Even if CASA approve 4 crew (which isn’t guaranteed), Qantas will almost certainly operate the MAX-10 with 5 crew on the short mealtime flight, which were 5 in the 737-800 until COVID.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:56 am

Antarius wrote:
tealnz wrote:
Antarius wrote:
The order could very well end up with the a320neo family, but it won't be due to passenger comfort or range. Unlike a.net, the former is meaningless to airlines and the latter's importance is grossly overstated for all markets (it matters in some markets, as evidenced by the large order book, but not every customer needs or cares). Future fleet goals, price and availability tend to outweigh everything else.

Meaningless? Depends. For some markets and some airlines it matters. Seriously. QF is one airline that has put pax experience at the heart of its brand and business model. 70 fewer seats than NZ in the 789 for example. QF even set up a separate airline (JQ) so it could segregate off the “comfort is meaningless” part of the market.

And this is a reality even for domestic – look at the investment QF has made in the business travel experience on domestic. Choice of airframe and fit-out is one of the fundamentals for pax experience. And as we see in US transcontinental market the A321 offers possibilities for premium experience that the bigger 737s struggle to match.

I’m not saying that will drive the selection, but it will have to be a factor.


There is a difference between seating configuration, hard and soft product (which are important) and this a.net obsession with aircraft size and width, that history shows us is completely meaningless. That extra half inch of space is not why any airline has selected the a320 over the 737, nor is the 2-3-2 config of a 767 why someone chose it over an a330, not is 2-4-2 on an a330 why it was chosen over a 777.

Comfort matters. But that is because of what the airline does, not what the airframe is. If that extra smidge of width was so important, then QF wouldn't be flying 75 737s right now, nor would 10,000+ have been delivered. And everyone would be flying 767s around instead of a350s, 787s, a330s and 777s (which is the exact opposite of what is happening). The number 1 selling widebody of all time has a objectively shitty seating config for most airlines (3-4-3) and it still holds the podium.

The a320 vs 737 battle for QF will be down to price, availability and fit to their long term fleet plan.


Lets not get carried away with the routes NZ fly their 789s on vs QF, QF used them as a 744 replacement in some markets like BNE-LAX, SCL/JNB-SYD, while needing a relatively lightly configuration for PER-LHR and BNE-ORD if that happens ever now. NZ used the initial ones as a 763 replacement into PER/PVG/NRT, some flights were 772s there to but atleast the 789 gave them a balance of efficiency and consistent product. Later 789s allowed long hauls like AKL-ORD/EWR to be done which no other aircraft could fly the distance let alone profitably. Many were calling for NZ to go A350 atleast on A.net, they won't. QF however will because it is the best aircraft for them, a little larger than the 789 and a little more range for PS LHR/JFK non stop.
 
ewt340
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:28 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I am not sure about most of what you say here.

We are not sure if JQ will use the 787 again, no proof either way, likely they will use some though for the longest routes atleast.

QF use A321 from CNS? To where? Ok like CNS but QF mainline have zero International flights from CNS, while JQ used 787s to Japan. ADL-SIN sure I would believe but not CNS.

A330s are still efficient at what they do, yes the older are getting older but are probably good for another 5 years, JQ 787s transfer to QF to replace them?

A380, QF took a large write down on the fleet, Joyce even said they are good in specific markets where curfews and time zones mean less travel windows in terms of arrival departure times, LAX/LHR etc, weather all 12 return remains to be seen but 6 have been refitted and there is a high chance those will return when needed from 2023 on.

737NG is still efficient, sure not as much as the NEO or MAX but the majority of the fleet is owned I believe and paid off, as this thread is about the oldest will need replacing from around mid decade, but will take 10 years to replace the whole fleet.


Based on Qantas media release in 2019. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ange-a321/

What I'm saying is, it seems like A321XLR would fly with the mainline, if that happen A320neo would be a logical choice to replace B737-800. Why would they keep operating B737 in their fleet when Jetstar operate A320neo/A321neo and Qantas plan to operate A321XLR. Seems like the choice is already being made.


JQ used to fly MEL-SIN, it was purely used as an example that QF could use it there.JQ use a 787 CNS-NRT/KIX which could be done by an A321NEO, years ago there were 747s with QF.

The reality is you could say why did JQ get A320s when QF had 737s already. The thing to me is that the QF group have 110 options on the NEO and may decide to use them for QF, remember though QF would have to retrain 737 crew to the A320, Joyce has also made mention of the A220, maybe some of those NEO options could be converted to the A220, these would be IMO more of a 717 replacement on the smaller end and some regional 737 routes, for the main I see the A220 as to small for SYD/MEL/BNE. Maybe A Max order and A220s for QF is possible.

It’s a bit premature to say QF will order the NEO however. He has mentioned Boeing’s NMA but even Boeing don’t know what that will look like yet so that’s a way out of QF were to buy the NMA.


I do believe when Jetstar started, it was early 2000s. Where many airlines operate dozens of aircraft type. Contrary to today where they want to streamline their fleet. They also have many NEOs on order, most of them would be for Jetstar, but the XLR have been earmarked by Joyce for the Mainline operation. This push them closer to Airbus narrobody order. Unless they got insane discount on the MAX8. It seems like there is more benefit for them to switch to A320neo.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:49 pm

ewt340 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Based on Qantas media release in 2019. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ange-a321/

What I'm saying is, it seems like A321XLR would fly with the mainline, if that happen A320neo would be a logical choice to replace B737-800. Why would they keep operating B737 in their fleet when Jetstar operate A320neo/A321neo and Qantas plan to operate A321XLR. Seems like the choice is already being made.


JQ used to fly MEL-SIN, it was purely used as an example that QF could use it there.JQ use a 787 CNS-NRT/KIX which could be done by an A321NEO, years ago there were 747s with QF.

The reality is you could say why did JQ get A320s when QF had 737s already. The thing to me is that the QF group have 110 options on the NEO and may decide to use them for QF, remember though QF would have to retrain 737 crew to the A320, Joyce has also made mention of the A220, maybe some of those NEO options could be converted to the A220, these would be IMO more of a 717 replacement on the smaller end and some regional 737 routes, for the main I see the A220 as to small for SYD/MEL/BNE. Maybe A Max order and A220s for QF is possible.

It’s a bit premature to say QF will order the NEO however. He has mentioned Boeing’s NMA but even Boeing don’t know what that will look like yet so that’s a way out of QF were to buy the NMA.


I do believe when Jetstar started, it was early 2000s. Where many airlines operate dozens of aircraft type. Contrary to today where they want to streamline their fleet. They also have many NEOs on order, most of them would be for Jetstar, but the XLR have been earmarked by Joyce for the Mainline operation. This push them closer to Airbus narrobody order. Unless they got insane discount on the MAX8. It seems like there is more benefit for them to switch to A320neo.

If you’re referring to the press release above, Alan Joyce didn’t say it was earmarked for Qantas. He said there were plenty of potential across both Qantas and Jetstar, and a decision would be taken closer to time of delivery.

“We’ll take a decision closer to the time about which parts of the Group will use these aircraft, but there is plenty of potential across Qantas and Jetstar. We’ll also take a view on whether they are used to replace older aircraft or whether they are used for growth, which will depend on what’s happening in the market.”


Does this mean the A321XLR might be used by Qantas? Absolutely. Does this mean the A321XLR will definitely be used by Qantas? No. Given the events of the last year and a big, I suspect even Qantas Group haven’t formed a strong opinion yet of the extent to which this type will serve with Qantas, Jetstar, or both.

As for fleet streamlining, that was very much a thing by the time Jetstar started. I’m struggling to think of many major operators who have gone for a more diversified fleet as opposed to a more common fleet over the past 20 years.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
User avatar
vhtje
Posts: 1318
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 12:40 pm

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:47 am

ewt340 wrote:

Based on Qantas media release in 2019. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ange-a321/

What I'm saying is, it seems like A321XLR would fly with the mainline, if that happen A320neo would be a logical choice to replace B737-800. Why would they keep operating B737 in their fleet when Jetstar operate A320neo/A321neo and Qantas plan to operate A321XLR. Seems like the choice is already being made.


Nonsense. We know nothing of the kind; that is pure speculation on your behalf. Your linked media release doesn’t state where the A321XLRs will be used - it just refers to the Qantas Group, “The first A321 XLR would be available to the Group from the 2024 financial year onwards.”

As I stated earlier in the thread: the reason JQ selected Airbus back in 2004 was to enable the airline to hire crew under different contracts (read: cheaper) from QF. It was a deliberate ploy to keep the crew groups separate.

Unless this reason no longer exists, and, four pages in, nobody has posted any evidence that doesn’t, then the chances must be high that the types will continue to be kept separate between the two airlines.

QF Link’s existing A320s are operated by Network Aviation, not QF, so they are operated separately to the mainline operation.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
Noshow
Posts: 2517
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:07 am

So is next sunrise show about to begin? Narrowbody this time? They should finally just order whatever they like.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7897
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:53 am

Noshow wrote:
So is next sunrise show about to begin? Narrowbody this time? They should finally just order whatever they like.


QF won’t order anything until they are confident the market has recovered. I’m sure they would like to order something but the business case isn’t there or the time isn’t yet right.
 
ewt340
Posts: 1437
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:38 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

JQ used to fly MEL-SIN, it was purely used as an example that QF could use it there.JQ use a 787 CNS-NRT/KIX which could be done by an A321NEO, years ago there were 747s with QF.

The reality is you could say why did JQ get A320s when QF had 737s already. The thing to me is that the QF group have 110 options on the NEO and may decide to use them for QF, remember though QF would have to retrain 737 crew to the A320, Joyce has also made mention of the A220, maybe some of those NEO options could be converted to the A220, these would be IMO more of a 717 replacement on the smaller end and some regional 737 routes, for the main I see the A220 as to small for SYD/MEL/BNE. Maybe A Max order and A220s for QF is possible.

It’s a bit premature to say QF will order the NEO however. He has mentioned Boeing’s NMA but even Boeing don’t know what that will look like yet so that’s a way out of QF were to buy the NMA.


I do believe when Jetstar started, it was early 2000s. Where many airlines operate dozens of aircraft type. Contrary to today where they want to streamline their fleet. They also have many NEOs on order, most of them would be for Jetstar, but the XLR have been earmarked by Joyce for the Mainline operation. This push them closer to Airbus narrobody order. Unless they got insane discount on the MAX8. It seems like there is more benefit for them to switch to A320neo.

If you’re referring to the press release above, Alan Joyce didn’t say it was earmarked for Qantas. He said there were plenty of potential across both Qantas and Jetstar, and a decision would be taken closer to time of delivery.

“We’ll take a decision closer to the time about which parts of the Group will use these aircraft, but there is plenty of potential across Qantas and Jetstar. We’ll also take a view on whether they are used to replace older aircraft or whether they are used for growth, which will depend on what’s happening in the market.”


Does this mean the A321XLR might be used by Qantas? Absolutely. Does this mean the A321XLR will definitely be used by Qantas? No. Given the events of the last year and a big, I suspect even Qantas Group haven’t formed a strong opinion yet of the extent to which this type will serve with Qantas, Jetstar, or both.

As for fleet streamlining, that was very much a thing by the time Jetstar started. I’m struggling to think of many major operators who have gone for a more diversified fleet as opposed to a more common fleet over the past 20 years.

V/F


What I meant was, in 2001, Qantas operate B737 for their domestic routes, and when they established Jetstar, it would only make sense for them to also operate fleet of B737 for cheaper maintenance costs instead of using another different model (A320). While streamlining operation is quite normal back then. Many airlines across the world operate a more diverse model of aircraft compared to today.

Now, we know for a fact that A320neo and the LR/XLR would be coming to the Qantas group regardless, my point is, to discuss the possibility of B737-800's future replacement.
My logic is, with Jetstar utilizing A320neo. Why wouldn't Qantas doing the same? We know they didn't order any MAX8. And their group order dozens of A320neo. Wouldn't it be more logical to use the same narrowbody aircraft?
 
ewt340
Posts: 1437
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:45 pm

vhtje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Based on Qantas media release in 2019. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ange-a321/

What I'm saying is, it seems like A321XLR would fly with the mainline, if that happen A320neo would be a logical choice to replace B737-800. Why would they keep operating B737 in their fleet when Jetstar operate A320neo/A321neo and Qantas plan to operate A321XLR. Seems like the choice is already being made.


Nonsense. We know nothing of the kind; that is pure speculation on your behalf. Your linked media release doesn’t state where the A321XLRs will be used - it just refers to the Qantas Group, “The first A321 XLR would be available to the Group from the 2024 financial year onwards.”

As I stated earlier in the thread: the reason JQ selected Airbus back in 2004 was to enable the airline to hire crew under different contracts (read: cheaper) from QF. It was a deliberate ploy to keep the crew groups separate.

Unless this reason no longer exists, and, four pages in, nobody has posted any evidence that doesn’t, then the chances must be high that the types will continue to be kept separate between the two airlines.

QF Link’s existing A320s are operated by Network Aviation, not QF, so they are operated separately to the mainline operation.


With due respect, but as far as I know, both Qantas and Jetstar used to operate A330 at the same time no? And before the pandemic, both airlines operate B787.
I never knew any Government regulations in Australia that prevented 2 different companies from the same group from hiring workers with 2 different contracts. If there is one, please enlighten us.
And if there is no single Government regulations preventing Jetstar from hiring workers with different contract from Qantas. Why does it matter if they operate the same aircraft?

As for any discussion on this particular topic in this forum. Most of them if not all, would be speculation.

I also never mentioned QantasLink and their A320.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8668
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:31 pm

ewt340 wrote:
vhtje wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

Based on Qantas media release in 2019. https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media ... ange-a321/

What I'm saying is, it seems like A321XLR would fly with the mainline, if that happen A320neo would be a logical choice to replace B737-800. Why would they keep operating B737 in their fleet when Jetstar operate A320neo/A321neo and Qantas plan to operate A321XLR. Seems like the choice is already being made.


Nonsense. We know nothing of the kind; that is pure speculation on your behalf. Your linked media release doesn’t state where the A321XLRs will be used - it just refers to the Qantas Group, “The first A321 XLR would be available to the Group from the 2024 financial year onwards.”

As I stated earlier in the thread: the reason JQ selected Airbus back in 2004 was to enable the airline to hire crew under different contracts (read: cheaper) from QF. It was a deliberate ploy to keep the crew groups separate.

Unless this reason no longer exists, and, four pages in, nobody has posted any evidence that doesn’t, then the chances must be high that the types will continue to be kept separate between the two airlines.

QF Link’s existing A320s are operated by Network Aviation, not QF, so they are operated separately to the mainline operation.


With due respect, but as far as I know, both Qantas and Jetstar used to operate A330 at the same time no? And before the pandemic, both airlines operate B787.
I never knew any Government regulations in Australia that prevented 2 different companies from the same group from hiring workers with 2 different contracts. If there is one, please enlighten us.
And if there is no single Government regulations preventing Jetstar from hiring workers with different contract from Qantas. Why does it matter if they operate the same aircraft?

As for any discussion on this particular topic in this forum. Most of them if not all, would be speculation.

I also never mentioned QantasLink and their A320.


Of course there is no government requirement. If such a requirement exists it will be in the pilot contract or some such union agreement. From what’s been said, it’s an internal employee relations issue, not a regulatory issue.

As it is, I’m not 100% convinced that this restriction exists. Nobody can point to where it comes from. This issue has been raised dozens of times on this website and elsewhere, and the consensus always seems to be that the restriction exists but nobody is sure why. I sometimes suspect that this is one of those things that has been repeated so many times that it has been accepted as fact. However I definitely do not have inside knowledge so could be well of the mark.

Assuming it is true, the ‘international’ pilots at Qantas are on a completely separate EBA to the ‘domestic’ 737 pilots, so it is feasible that a contractual requirement could apply to the ‘domestic’ pilots that does not apply on the A330 and 787 fleets.

If the A321 is operated by Qantas then that would indicate that if there ever was an issue there isn’t anymore. There is no way Joyce would countenance bring all Jetstar pilots up to Qantas wages and contractual conditions just to operate the A321.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
ewt340
Posts: 1437
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:46 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
vhtje wrote:

Nonsense. We know nothing of the kind; that is pure speculation on your behalf. Your linked media release doesn’t state where the A321XLRs will be used - it just refers to the Qantas Group, “The first A321 XLR would be available to the Group from the 2024 financial year onwards.”

As I stated earlier in the thread: the reason JQ selected Airbus back in 2004 was to enable the airline to hire crew under different contracts (read: cheaper) from QF. It was a deliberate ploy to keep the crew groups separate.

Unless this reason no longer exists, and, four pages in, nobody has posted any evidence that doesn’t, then the chances must be high that the types will continue to be kept separate between the two airlines.

QF Link’s existing A320s are operated by Network Aviation, not QF, so they are operated separately to the mainline operation.


With due respect, but as far as I know, both Qantas and Jetstar used to operate A330 at the same time no? And before the pandemic, both airlines operate B787.
I never knew any Government regulations in Australia that prevented 2 different companies from the same group from hiring workers with 2 different contracts. If there is one, please enlighten us.
And if there is no single Government regulations preventing Jetstar from hiring workers with different contract from Qantas. Why does it matter if they operate the same aircraft?

As for any discussion on this particular topic in this forum. Most of them if not all, would be speculation.

I also never mentioned QantasLink and their A320.


Of course there is no government requirement. If such a requirement exists it will be in the pilot contract or some such union agreement. From what’s been said, it’s an internal employee relations issue, not a regulatory issue.

As it is, I’m not 100% convinced that this restriction exists. Nobody can point to where it comes from. This issue has been raised dozens of times on this website and elsewhere, and the consensus always seems to be that the restriction exists but nobody is sure why. I sometimes suspect that this is one of those things that has been repeated so many times that it has been accepted as fact. However I definitely do not have inside knowledge so could be well of the mark.

Assuming it is true, the ‘international’ pilots at Qantas are on a completely separate EBA to the ‘domestic’ 737 pilots, so it is feasible that a contractual requirement could apply to the ‘domestic’ pilots that does not apply on the A330 and 787 fleets.

If the A321 is operated by Qantas then that would indicate that if there ever was an issue there isn’t anymore. There is no way Joyce would countenance bring all Jetstar pilots up to Qantas wages and contractual conditions just to operate the A321.


That's true. So I guess the A321XLR would be the main factor for their contracts and possibility for A320neo to enter the mainline operation.
 
AJ
Posts: 2303
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 1999 3:54 pm

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:42 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
Read the thread! It has already been said that Australian CASA does NOT have a 1:50 rule, unlike the FAA and most other regulators. Stop saying that it does!! And if you don’t know what you are talking about then don’t comment.

Even if CASA approve 4 crew (which isn’t guaranteed), Qantas will almost certainly operate the MAX-10 with 5 crew on the short mealtime flight, which were 5 in the 737-800 until COVID.

Good afternoon. 1:50 is included in CASR Part 121, which most larger companies are in the process of transitioning to by 2 December this year.
https://www.casa.gov.au/standard-page/c ... aeroplanes
 
theabman
Posts: 2
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:21 am

Re: Qantas 738 replacement competition

Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:25 am

Hey guys, any latest news/rumour on the replacement decision?

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