Southwest Orders 100 MAX + 155 Options

Opus99 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:16 am

And that brings a close to this major deal for the MAX. Congrats southwest. Congrats Boeing. congrats 737 Team

https://twitter.com/byerussell/status/1 ... 62371?s=21

https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-relea ... tem=130843

Special · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:27 am

Is the 100 solely for the MAX 7?

KLMatSJC · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:31 am

Looks like all orders for the MAX 7 and 70 converted from the MAX 8 to the MAX 7. Now orders for 200 MAX 7s in total.

Polot · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:33 am

Special wrote:
Is the 100 solely for the MAX 7?

Sounds like it.

According to the PR this takes WN to 200 -7s and 180 -8s (including -8s already delivered). Didn’t WN previously convert a bunch of -7s to -8s leaving them with only ~30 -7s on order? It sounds like they may have converted some -8s back to -7s in addition to the new order.

KLMatSJC wrote:
Looks like 70 orders for the MAX 7 and 30 for the MAX 8. Now orders for 100 MAX 7s in total.

Boeing specifically calls out WN having 200 Max 7s in order though, and makes it clear that is not including options:

The new purchase agreement takes Southwest’s order book to 200 737-7s and 180 737-8s, more than 30 of which have already been delivered. Southwest will also have 270 options for either of the two models, taking the carrier’s direct-buy commitment to more than 600 airplanes.

KLMatSJC · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:36 am

Polot wrote:
KLMatSJC wrote:
Looks like 70 orders for the MAX 7 and 30 for the MAX 8. Now orders for 100 MAX 7s in total.

Boeing specifically calls out WN having 200 Max 7s in order though, and makes it clear that is not including options:

The new purchase agreement takes Southwest’s order book to 200 737-7s and 180 737-8s, more than 30 of which have already been delivered. Southwest will also have 270 options for either of the two models, taking the carrier’s direct-buy commitment to more than 600 airplanes.

Yup. Misread it at the top since it didn't actually say 100 MAX 7s, just 100 MAX aircraft.

Avgeek21 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:38 am

Good news for the industry as a whole. So done with all this negative news over the past year.

Wasn’t the earlier insider rumor saying 130 firm + 170 options?

MileHFL400 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:47 am

Fantastic. Was hoping the Max 7 wouldn’t finish off at 40 orders. When is the first Max 7 delivery?

texl1649 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:49 am

Great to put this order in the books, glad WN is stable enough to move forward with this at this time. 787 deliveries resumed, and Max order book now again stabilized at present level essentially, for the time being.

MIflyer12 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:56 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
Fantastic. Was hoping the Max 7 wouldn’t finish off at 40 orders. When is the first Max 7 delivery?

I haven't seen a timeline for the first, but 'the first thirty of those aircraft (MAX7s) to be delivered in 2022.'

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/south ... quote_news

seahawk · Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:59 am

Fantastic news. On the other hand the distribution is between the -8 and the -7 does seem to indicate that the traffic growths expectation are not too high.

Polot · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:02 pm

seahawk wrote:
Fantastic news. On the other hand the distribution is between the -8 and the -7 does seem to indicate that the traffic growths expectation are not too high.

They also note that WN is planning on leasing jets from 3rd parties though, which of course will be -8s.

noviorbis77 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:06 pm

Great order for Boeing.

Congratulations

MIflyer12 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:07 pm

seahawk wrote:
Fantastic news. On the other hand the distribution is between the -8 and the -7 does seem to indicate that the traffic growths expectation are not too high.

That's a 7 and 8 mix that points to further upgauging from the fleet avg today. I wouldn't have expected that the fate of every -700 was to be replaced by a MAX 8.

SWADawg · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:17 pm

It’s been stated recently by certain members of network planning that they want the core aircraft to be the MAX-7 for most of the fleet going forward. The MAX-8 and even the MAX-10 will have a place in the overall fleet, but with the point to point business model, they don’t think they can fill that many seats in medium and smallish markets on a consistent basis. Internally we knew this order was coming down the pike. It’s nice to finally see the A220/MAX debate finally come to an end.

Runway765 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:21 pm

SWADawg wrote:
It’s been stated recently by certain members of network planning that they want the core aircraft to be the MAX-7 for most of the fleet going forward. The MAX-8 and even the MAX-10 will have a place in the overall fleet, but with the point to point business model, they don’t think they can fill that many seats in medium and smallish markets on a consistent basis. Internally we knew this order was coming down the pike. It’s nice to finally see the A220/MAX debate finally come to an end.

So a MAX 10 order will come down the road?

PANAMsterdam · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:27 pm

This is great news for Boeing and an important signal to the public: The 737 MAX has been fixed and can be trusted (again).

I'm wondering what the price was Southwest paid, or did Boeing have a Buy 1, Get 1 FREE! sale?

SWADawg · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:28 pm

Runway765 wrote:
SWADawg wrote:
It’s been stated recently by certain members of network planning that they want the core aircraft to be the MAX-7 for most of the fleet going forward. The MAX-8 and even the MAX-10 will have a place in the overall fleet, but with the point to point business model, they don’t think they can fill that many seats in medium and smallish markets on a consistent basis. Internally we knew this order was coming down the pike. It’s nice to finally see the A220/MAX debate finally come to an end.

So a MAX 10 order will come down the road?

Gary Kelly had said when the MAX-10 was announced that WN would be interested in a plane like that because of the new landing gear that allowed for better takeoff performance than the MAX-9. He gave no indication on whether or not WN would order it, but he did say they would be interested in the MAX-10 over the MAX-9. I think they will eventually operate a small fleet of maybe 50-75 MAX-10s’ for West Coast to Hawaii or flights to Las Vegas and Orlando where filling 200 seats isn’t an issue. The core product will still be the MAX-7 at 150 seats and 3 Flight Attendants though.

Antarius · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:29 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
I'm wondering what the price was Southwest paid, or did Boeing have a Buy 1, Get 1 FREE! sale?

No one will know, but it won't stop a.net from turning the latter into a "fact"

MIflyer12 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:31 pm

IMHO a MAX 10 order is all but inevitable. The seat economics are very, very good, and WN has a route network with enough high volume city pairs that don't need super frequency (think DAL-LAS, FLL-BWI, MCO-BWI...) to use a decent number of MAX 10 frames, maybe 50-100.

I see SWADawg types faster than me.

STT757 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:46 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
This is great news for Boeing and an important signal to the public: The 737 MAX has been fixed and can be trusted (again).

I'm wondering what the price was Southwest paid, or did Boeing have a Buy 1, Get 1 FREE! sale?

Not buy one get one, but I think they let them use an expired 20% off coupon from Bed Bath & Beyond.

In all seriousness though, congratulations to these two companies.

Chuska · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:53 pm

Polot wrote:
seahawk wrote:
Fantastic news. On the other hand the distribution is between the -8 and the -7 does seem to indicate that the traffic growths expectation are not too high.

They also note that WN is planning on leasing jets from 3rd parties though, which of course will be -8s.

That just reminded of when WN was awaiting deliveries of the 737-300 back in 1985, they leased some 727-200s!

Veigar · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:53 pm

So strange to me still how every single WN aircraft tail number doesn't end in SW anymore.. almost like yesterday that this was the case!

SWADawg · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:56 pm

Veigar wrote:
So strange to me still how every single WN aircraft tail number doesn't end in SW anymore.. almost like yesterday that this was the case!

Due to the numbers of Aircraft in the fleet, the decision was made to change the numbering system to a 4 digit numbering system that could easily be used by different departments in the Company to identify the different variants of the 737 that WN flies.

Opus99 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:59 pm

MAX has now received 250 orders since RTS. (November 2020)

Noshow · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:09 pm

Congrats to Boeing and the MAX. This is so important to keep those key customers.

2eng2efficient · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:12 pm

SWADawg wrote:
It’s been stated recently by certain members of network planning that they want the core aircraft to be the MAX-7 for most of the fleet going forward.

That makes perfect sense. People need to remember that the MAX-7 represents modest capacity growth over the -700s they will be replacing. So this order reflects modest-but-confident growth expectations in future decades. And given WN’s point-to-point model, there are certainly many routes where the MAX-8 is too much airplane.

Revelation · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:13 pm

A conclusive end to posts that suggested WN was "bowing out" of MAX7s.

Ref: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1417165&p=21150399#p21150399

SWADawg · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:17 pm

SWADawg wrote:
It’s been stated recently by certain members of network planning that they want the core aircraft to be the MAX7 for most of the fleet going forward. The MAX8 and even the MAX10 will have a place in the overall fleet, but with the point to point business model, they don’t think they can fill that many seats in medium and smallish markets on a consistent basis. Internally we knew this order was coming down the pike. It’s nice to finally see the A220/MAX debate finally come to an end.

Strato2 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:22 pm

How much are they paying for these planes? The unit cost?

qf789 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:37 pm

Here is a breakdown of the 737MAX to be delivered to Southwest

https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status ... 40512?s=21

Revelation · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:48 pm

qf789 wrote:
Here is a breakdown of the 737MAX to be delivered to Southwest

Very interesting.

Seems people were happy to suggest that the swing towards -800 late in the NG order and then MAX8 early in the MAX order meant MAX7 was doomed at WN, but now we see a four year period where nothing but MAX7 will be delivered, and in fairly large numbers.

Also note we see the MAX name being used in the Boeing press release, another thing people thought would not happen going forward.

Opus99 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:50 pm

Revelation wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Here is a breakdown of the 737MAX to be delivered to Southwest

Very interesting.

Seems people were happy to suggest that the swing towards -800 late in the NG order and then MAX8 early in the MAX order meant MAX7 was doomed at WN, but now we see a four year period where nothing but MAX7 will be delivered, and in fairly large numbers.

Also note we see the MAX name being used in the Boeing press release, another thing people thought would not happen going forward.

Majority of the things predicted on a.net often end up being wrong I’ve come to find

ScottB · Mon Mar 29, 2021 1:58 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
I'm wondering what the price was Southwest paid, or did Boeing have a Buy 1, Get 1 FREE! sale?

That's not very different from what airlines typically pay in normal times if we're talking about discount from list price; in fact, if WN only got half off sticker, that's probably not as good as previous pricing they've obtained: https://airinsight.com/aircraft-pricing-list-vs-market/

Arguably the MAX's woes are less relevant in the current market context than the general health of the air transportation business. Only the strongest carriers will be able to take delivery of new aircraft in the near term after losses of tens of billions of dollars globally.

SWADawg wrote:
It’s been stated recently by certain members of network planning that they want the core aircraft to be the MAX-7 for most of the fleet going forward. The MAX-8 and even the MAX-10 will have a place in the overall fleet, but with the point to point business model, they don’t think they can fill that many seats in medium and smallish markets on a consistent basis.

Seems logical to me. Plus pretty much every aircraft which will retire from the Southwest fleet over the next 15 years will be a -700, and as you stated, a lot of markets can't consistently fill 175 seats.

Revelation · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:00 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
This is great news for Boeing and an important signal to the public: The 737 MAX has been fixed and can be trusted (again).

I'm wondering what the price was Southwest paid, or did Boeing have a Buy 1, Get 1 FREE! sale?

I don't think we have the facts that would let us have a serious discussion on price vs cost.

Clearly WN is buying in large volume, has a lot of credits due it because of the MCAS grounding, and was using A220 to put price pressure on Boeing.

Yet I have a hard time thinking Boeing would sign a deal that left it no profit before the credits were applied.

Presumably the credits drove the deal into negative territory, but Boeing already wrote off losses associated with granting the credits.

Overall it is a step in the right direction, IMO.

Post-MCAS, Boeing has secured orders from WN, AS, UA, FR.

I can imagine more orders will come in to use credits before they expire.

This will build the base for future, more profitable orders.

jeffrey0032j · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:04 pm

qf789 wrote:
Here is a breakdown of the 737MAX to be delivered to Southwest

https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status ... 40512?s=21

What are the additional Max 8s for this year? Are they from a lessor's order?

Opus99 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:05 pm

Revelation wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
This is great news for Boeing and an important signal to the public: The 737 MAX has been fixed and can be trusted (again).

I'm wondering what the price was Southwest paid, or did Boeing have a Buy 1, Get 1 FREE! sale?

I don't think we have the facts that would let us have a serious discussion on price vs cost.

Clearly WN is buying in large volume, has a lot of credits due it because of the MCAS grounding, and was using A220 to put price pressure on Boeing.

Yet I have a hard time thinking Boeing would sign a deal that left it no profit before the credits were applied.

Presumably the credits drove the deal into negative territory, but Boeing already wrote off losses associated with granting the credits.

Overall it is a step in the right direction, IMO.

Post-MCAS, Boeing has secured orders from WN, AS, UA, FR.

I can imagine more orders will come in to use credits before they expire.

This will build the base for future, more profitable orders.

Which also shows that Sim Training wasn’t that much of a deal breaker as southwest and American made it out to be when the whole proposition of the MAX started

BrianDromey · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:19 pm

Great order for Boeing, the MAX-7 and WN. Boeing had to win this order for the 737MAX to be a viable project going forward. The MAX and the -7 especially, has been made for WN. Boeing's largest, most loyal customer who has had such a large influence on the MAX program existing would have been a disaster and mandated the launch of a 737 successor, even if the engine technology was not ready.
WN have 470+ 73Ws to replace over the next decade, it will be interesting to see if they order 200+ additional -7s or upgrade further with the -8 and -10.

aemoreira1981 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:26 pm

I can’t help but think that some options will eventually be for the MAX 9. The MAX 7 is basically tailored to WN and smaller markets that can’t support an -800/MAX 8. I also see another order coming up, being a split between the MAX 7 and MAX 9.

mxaxai · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:37 pm

What does WN see in the -7 that the rest of the world misses?
Especially among other LCC's, the -8 and its -200 variant seem to be far more popular. Likewise, former larger A319 operators like U2 are switching to the A320neo.

As the (nearly) sole operator of the -7, doesn't WN worry about resale values?

Antarius · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:39 pm

mxaxai wrote:
What does WN see in the -7 that the rest of the world misses?
Especially among other LCC's, the -8 and its -200 variant seem to be far more popular. Likewise, former larger A319 operators like U2 are switching to the A320neo.

As the (nearly) sole operator of the -7, doesn't WN worry about resale values?

WN runs their planes for years. Heck, they retired classics only because they had to. I don't think they are about resale value.

Revelation · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:40 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Which also shows that Sim Training wasn’t that much of a deal breaker as southwest and American made it out to be when the whole proposition of the MAX started

The way WN tells the tale according to reporting in the Seattle Times, the whole $1M/plane training thing was just a left over from their previous NG contracts and if Boeing had pushed back it could have been negotiated upon. They suggest Boeing took the whole thing far more seriously than they needed to. I guess greed has a way of distorting reality. It seems the far more pivotal moment was during NG development where Boeing was proposing retrofitting the 757 cockpit tech to NG and WN said no due to training costs. That was a great "what if" moment...

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I can’t help but think that some options will eventually be for the MAX 9. The MAX 7 is basically tailored to WN and smaller markets that can’t support an -800/MAX 8. I also see another order coming up, being a split between the MAX 7 and MAX 9.

This deal actually converted some MAX8 orders to MAX7. Another talking point of the past was the large number of MAX8 orders indicated WN wasn't interested in the MAX7. In reality it seems WN orders are just place holders that can be moved around as desired. Personally I think MAX10 makes sense for some of WN's "trunk routes". Not sure going to MAX9 provides enough of a delta in passenger count to be worth the exercise. I suppose a lot of what we see now is also place holders, but as pointed out they have a lot of -700s to replace and a lot of small cities to serve. The bump up to 150 pax is probably a good enough delta in pax for now till we see more of what the post recovery world is like.

Newark727 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:52 pm

Anyone know if Boeing is going to offer a -7 MAX BBJ?

bob75013 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 2:55 pm

mxaxai wrote:
What does WN see in the -7 that the rest of the world misses?
Especially among other LCC's, the -8 and its -200 variant seem to be far more popular. Likewise, former larger A319 operators like U2 are switching to the A320neo.

As the (nearly) sole operator of the -7, doesn't WN worry about resale values?

When is the last time WN sold anything other than 717s?

ikolkyo · Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:00 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
I can’t help but think that some options will eventually be for the MAX 9. The MAX 7 is basically tailored to WN and smaller markets that can’t support an -800/MAX 8. I also see another order coming up, being a split between the MAX 7 and MAX 9.

If they’re going to upsize it’s going to be the MAX 10. CASM advantage over the -10 alone makes it a no brainer and helps them compete better against Frontier and Spirit A321s

CRJ900 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:03 pm

mxaxai wrote:
What does WN see in the -7 that the rest of the world misses?
Especially among other LCC's, the -8 and its -200 variant seem to be far more popular. Likewise, former larger A319 operators like U2 are switching to the A320neo.

As the (nearly) sole operator of the -7, doesn't WN worry about resale values?

With WN's better seat pitch the MAX 7 is a perfect 150-seater with three FAs. Other low-fare carriers will end up with 160 seats (30 inch pitch) or 172 seats (28 inch pitch) + one additional FA - and then you might as well go for 186-seat A320 or 189-seat MAX 8.

Airlines like KLM and SAS could use the MAX 7 as a 150-seater with their Euro-business class concept with seats in the forward cabin spaced at 34 inch pitch and the rear cabin seats at 30 inch pitch - but KLM are going for 132-seat E195-E2 and SAS have chosen the A320NEO now, so...

PHLspecial · Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:07 pm

mxaxai wrote:
What does WN see in the -7 that the rest of the world misses?
Especially among other LCC's, the -8 and its -200 variant seem to be far more popular. Likewise, former larger A319 operators like U2 are switching to the A320neo.

As the (nearly) sole operator of the -7, doesn't WN worry about resale values?

I don't think WN will have any reason to sell the Max7. They will keep the Max 7 til end of life. Plus the Max 7 was made for WN.

Until it happens but I don't there will be other Max 7 operators unless WestJet takes its orders. Only way I can see the max 7 selling if the jet was sold at 65-70% its list price.

Revelation · Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:15 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
Until it happens but I don't there will be other Max 7 operators unless WestJet takes its orders. Only way I can see the max 7 selling if the jet was sold at 65-70% its list price.

I think it's way too early to say what WS will do with MAX7. WN is a much larger concern with excellent access to credit so they can continue to develop their fleet as they see fit. I can see WS using its accrued credits on MAX8 since it's a safer bet for them, and maybe ordering MAX7 in the post-covid world once their needs are clearer.

Chemist · Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:16 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
This is great news for Boeing and an important signal to the public: The 737 MAX has been fixed and can be trusted (again).

I'm wondering what the price was Southwest paid, or did Boeing have a Buy 1, Get 1 FREE! sale?

I don't think we have the facts that would let us have a serious discussion on price vs cost.

Clearly WN is buying in large volume, has a lot of credits due it because of the MCAS grounding, and was using A220 to put price pressure on Boeing.

Yet I have a hard time thinking Boeing would sign a deal that left it no profit before the credits were applied.

Presumably the credits drove the deal into negative territory, but Boeing already wrote off losses associated with granting the credits.

Overall it is a step in the right direction, IMO.

Post-MCAS, Boeing has secured orders from WN, AS, UA, FR.

I can imagine more orders will come in to use credits before they expire.

This will build the base for future, more profitable orders.

Which also shows that Sim Training wasn’t that much of a deal breaker as southwest and American made it out to be when the whole proposition of the MAX started

I seem to remember in the many threads over the past couple years that it was mentioned that the sim training was a clause carried over from older contracts. The implication was that it was boilerplate and might not have ended up being that important, but Boeing treated it that way anyway, hence the debacle.

Edit: I see Revelation beat me to this comment!

dougbr2006 · Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:19 pm

Biggest anti-climax of this century. It was obvious that WN would pitch up A & B to get the price down. Now after the grounding of the max covid etc you can be sure that B gave WN a huge discount to keep them faithful. Anyone that thinks different is riding on the Perseverance Rover on a red planet far far away.

Does the MAX 7 certification have to have the synthetic airspeed system installed for FAA certification or has Boeing got around it. I thought Boeing had agreed to add it to the 7 & 10 as they were not yet approved under the original Max certification RE? Max 8 & 9.

JoseSalazar · Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:21 pm

Newark727 wrote:
Anyone know if Boeing is going to offer a -7 MAX BBJ?

They already do. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/bbj/#/ ... bj-737max/

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