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Blerg
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Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:36 am

Good morning,

Various sources are reporting that in an hour at a press conference Ryanair will announce the opening of its newest base in Zagreb (ZAG). Flights are supposed to start in September and they will include the following destinations:

TGD, CIA, BGY, FMM, FKB, HHN, CRL, DTM, BVA, STN, GOT and TRF.

Will be interesting to see what becomes of Croatia Airlines as most of these will compete directly with their flights to primary airports in the same catchment area. In the past ZAG struggled to attract LCC carriers due to high charges and they accounted for only 4% of their total traffic.

Source:
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... tions.html

Update: flights have been loaded into the system.
 
MCTSET
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:45 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:08 pm

I thought Zagreb was known for high fees, I guess C19 made them change their mind.
 
Blerg
Topic Author
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Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:20 pm

MCTSET wrote:
I thought Zagreb was known for high fees, I guess C19 made them change their mind.


From what I read they are giving airlines 80% discount on fees but it seems like they have to commit for a period of five years.
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 1387
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:28 pm

Committing for 5 years, opening new routes and providing service year round doesn't sound particularly onerous. I imagine other LCCs could be persuaded to take an interest
 
MCTSET
Posts: 208
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:45 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 6:41 pm

Especially when a lot of leisure traffic is more focused on the coast than zagreb
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 9:26 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Committing for 5 years, opening new routes and providing service year round doesn't sound particularly onerous. I imagine other LCCs could be persuaded to take an interest


I am sure OU is praying to all Gods out there the opposite happens. I don't think they can survive this attack by FR.
 
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LH748
Posts: 482
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Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:11 pm

That means the end of Croatia Airlines. So sad to see another small carrier die a slow death
306 310 318 319 320 321 333 343 388 ATR72 733 737 738 739 743 744 748 752 753 763 764 772 77W 788 CRJ7 CRJ9 E170 F100 MD11 RJ1H
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hpff
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:20 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:18 pm

Blerg wrote:
Good morning,

Various sources are reporting that in an hour at a press conference Ryanair will announce the opening of its newest base in Zagreb (ZAG). Flights are supposed to start in September and they will include the following destinations:

TGD, CIA, BGY, FMM, FKB, HHN, CRL, DTM, BVA, STN, GOT and TRF.

Will be interesting to see what becomes of Croatia Airlines as most of these will compete directly with their flights to primary airports in the same catchment area. In the past ZAG struggled to attract LCC carriers due to high charges and they accounted for only 4% of their total traffic.

Source:
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... tions.html

Update: flights have been loaded into the system.


FR only have announced 36 flights a week starting in September and there's less overlap than you'd think, though the markets with overlap are large markets, albeit to classic Ryanair secondary airports. It'll be interesting to watch.

Croatia Airlines only (April schedule):
Amsterdam
Copenhagen
Skopje
Zürich
Dublin
Sarajevo
Vienna
Dubrovnik
Split
Bol (Brač)
Zadar-Pula


Overlap:
Frankfurt*
Munich*
Brussels*
London*
Paris*

Ryanair Only:
Rome*
Podgorica
Baden
Gothenburg
Oslo
Dortmund
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:55 am

hpff wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Good morning,

Various sources are reporting that in an hour at a press conference Ryanair will announce the opening of its newest base in Zagreb (ZAG). Flights are supposed to start in September and they will include the following destinations:

TGD, CIA, BGY, FMM, FKB, HHN, CRL, DTM, BVA, STN, GOT and TRF.

Will be interesting to see what becomes of Croatia Airlines as most of these will compete directly with their flights to primary airports in the same catchment area. In the past ZAG struggled to attract LCC carriers due to high charges and they accounted for only 4% of their total traffic.

Source:
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... tions.html

Update: flights have been loaded into the system.


FR only have announced 36 flights a week starting in September and there's less overlap than you'd think, though the markets with overlap are large markets, albeit to classic Ryanair secondary airports. It'll be interesting to watch.

Croatia Airlines only (April schedule):
Amsterdam
Copenhagen
Skopje
Zürich
Dublin
Sarajevo
Vienna
Dubrovnik
Split
Bol (Brač)
Zadar-Pula


Overlap:
Frankfurt*
Munich*
Brussels*
London*
Paris*

Ryanair Only:
Rome*
Podgorica
Baden
Gothenburg
Oslo
Dortmund


I'd also add Rome to the overlap column since OU operated ZAG-FCO with a stop on the coast. I can't imagine anyone traveling between the two cities will use OU in the future. I guess this summer will be a bad one for OU since FR is launching most of its routes in September. Seems like they don't expect demand to recover before then.
If they start attacking them in winter when there is less overall demand then their losses will increase exponentially. I can see them selling their remaining LHR slots next.

Sure the markets in which they overlap might not be small but they might be not big enough for so many airlines. For example in Paris now you will have Air France, Croatia Airlines and Ryanair. Same thing in London where in addition to Ryanair they have British Airways.
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 1387
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:48 am

I think Croatia Air will be able to defend Paris better than London. Stansted is better connected to the city than Beauvais
Equally Hahn is not always an easy sell

Croatia Air will struggle, but their airports are not quite the same as Ryanair's. They will need to change their marketing focus
 
YUAND
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:11 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:29 am

I agree that this more than likely means the end is near for Croatia Airlines. Whilst what many users have said about Ryanair re secondary airports is indeed true, there are other carriers that serve ZAG e.g. AF to CDG (pre C19 of course) that can be used by customers wishing to fly to a primary airport. Notably, in the case of Rome and London, the airports are not badly connected to the city so they will be key battles.

The one market that OU could win on here is the LH feeder market to MUC and FRA and other star alliance hubs. There is no reason why LX/LH/OS etc wouldn't decide to simply run the routes themselves however.
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 1387
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:42 pm

Ryanair want to expand eventually to up to 40 routes from Zagreb.
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... agreb.html
Croatia Air are well and truly in deep trouble
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:46 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Ryanair want to expand eventually to up to 40 routes from Zagreb.
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... agreb.html
Croatia Air are well and truly in deep trouble


Just a small correction, it's Croatia Airlines but yes, they are in deep trouble.
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5869
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:11 pm

Wow. Is Ryanair using the new or the old terminal in ZAG?

So what will happen with the Zagreb-coast routes if OU goes bankrupt?
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:34 pm

SCQ83 wrote:
Wow. Is Ryanair using the new or the old terminal in ZAG?

So what will happen with the Zagreb-coast routes if OU goes bankrupt?


They will be using the new one, even though the original design was downgraded there is still room.

Those routes to the coast are subsidized so someone else will take over, most likely Trade Air.
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Mon May 10, 2021 7:18 am

Ryanair appeals against state aid given to Croatia Airlines by the government.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/05/ry ... oatia.html

OU is generally a mismanaged business which has been struggling financially for a while now. In Q1 this year they lost close to €14 million.
 
ABpositive
Posts: 237
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2005 2:36 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Mon May 10, 2021 8:47 am

What are the chances of Croatia Airlines shifting their focus to coastal leisure routes and leveraging FR's ZAG hub to feed off a potentially bigger passanger base being brought in?
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
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Re: FR to open ZAG base

Mon May 10, 2021 9:01 am

ABpositive wrote:
What are the chances of Croatia Airlines shifting their focus to coastal leisure routes and leveraging FR's ZAG hub to feed off a potentially bigger passanger base being brought in?


I would say very little as their presence (in terms of overall %) on the coast has been shrinking over the years. I believe at this point they carry around 18% of all passengers. Also we don't know what the summer season will look like and how big the market will be in the end. Their best chance is to do it in 2022... that is if they can last that long.
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue May 11, 2021 12:43 pm

Ryanair further expands ZAG with two new routes: Malmo and Weeze.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/05/ry ... outes.html

Malmo will compete indirectly with OU's flights to Copenhagen while ZAG currently doesn't have any flights to DUS.
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 4526
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue May 11, 2021 4:21 pm

Blerg wrote:
Ryanair further expands ZAG with two new routes: Malmo and Weeze.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/05/ry ... outes.html

Malmo will compete indirectly with OU's flights to Copenhagen while ZAG currently doesn't have any flights to DUS.


True, however Weeze also captures a lot of Dutch demand as it's very close to the border. In such, it competes with Croatia Airlines route to Amsterdam.

Although for true access to the Dutch market, maybe Eindhoven would have been a better choice. On the other hand, Eindhoven is slot restricted while Weeze isn't. Therefor it's way easier for them to set up a route to Weeze than it is to Eindhoven.
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
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Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue May 11, 2021 4:30 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Ryanair further expands ZAG with two new routes: Malmo and Weeze.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/05/ry ... outes.html

Malmo will compete indirectly with OU's flights to Copenhagen while ZAG currently doesn't have any flights to DUS.


True, however Weeze also captures a lot of Dutch demand as it's very close to the border. In such, it competes with Croatia Airlines route to Amsterdam.

Although for true access to the Dutch market, maybe Eindhoven would have been a better choice. On the other hand, Eindhoven is slot restricted while Weeze isn't. Therefor it's way easier for them to set up a route to Weeze than it is to Eindhoven.


How accessible is Weeze from various parts of The Netherlands? For example if I was living in Rotterdam or Amsterdam, how easy it would be to reach Weeze?
 
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PatrickZ80
Posts: 4526
Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:33 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue May 11, 2021 5:07 pm

Blerg wrote:
How accessible is Weeze from various parts of The Netherlands? For example if I was living in Rotterdam or Amsterdam, how easy it would be to reach Weeze?


From those cities it's a bit further than Amsterdam for example, but doable. About 2 hours by car I would guess. Alternatively you can take the train to Nijmegen from where there is a bus to Weeze airport.

However if you live a bit in the south or east of the Netherlands, Weeze might just be closer than Amsterdam. I have some friends who live near Arnhem and for them Amsterdam is hardly an option. Dusseldorf is the closest major airport, however Eindhoven and Weeze are also quite within reach. It really depends on where in the Netherlands you live.
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue May 11, 2021 8:20 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
How accessible is Weeze from various parts of The Netherlands? For example if I was living in Rotterdam or Amsterdam, how easy it would be to reach Weeze?


From those cities it's a bit further than Amsterdam for example, but doable. About 2 hours by car I would guess. Alternatively you can take the train to Nijmegen from where there is a bus to Weeze airport.

However if you live a bit in the south or east of the Netherlands, Weeze might just be closer than Amsterdam. I have some friends who live near Arnhem and for them Amsterdam is hardly an option. Dusseldorf is the closest major airport, however Eindhoven and Weeze are also quite within reach. It really depends on where in the Netherlands you live.


Thank you. I guess Weeze's lower operating costs and FR's low fares are enough of a stimulus for people to travel there to catch a flight even if AMS might be closer in some cases.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1298
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Tue May 11, 2021 8:38 pm

Could we see service to the East eventually? Maybe Kutaisi or Tbilisi?
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed May 12, 2021 6:22 am

flyfresno wrote:
Could we see service to the East eventually? Maybe Kutaisi or Tbilisi?


Doubt it. In an interview FR said that 90% of their bookings are coming from abroad and only 10% from Croatia. I guess for the time being FR will be aiming for destinations where they can get either diaspora or tourists going to visit Zagreb.

I see that FR has moved some of their flights to July and among them is CIA. We have to see what OU does with their FCO flights since they operate with a stop in SPU using their Q400.
 
marcogr12
Posts: 602
Joined: Sun Mar 04, 2018 2:36 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed May 12, 2021 11:52 am

I think next year the S22 program will see ZAG expand further to summer destinations in the Med..Balearics,Sicily, Greece
Flying is breathing..no planes no life..
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 1387
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Wed May 12, 2021 12:33 pm

Croatia Airlines reported to have hired BCG to help define post Covid strategy
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... onsultants

Senior management at OU very likely know what they need to do, but need external validation of this in order to justify their actions publicly to the employees, Govt owner, and media
 
oldJoe
Posts: 484
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:04 pm

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Thu May 13, 2021 1:17 am

Blerg wrote:
Ryanair further expands ZAG with two new routes: Malmo and Weeze.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/05/ry ... outes.html

Malmo will compete indirectly with OU's flights to Copenhagen while ZAG currently doesn't have any flights to DUS.


Are you seriously compare DUS and Weeze ( in nowhere land ) ??? That`s abaout oranges and a comparison with rotten tomatoes
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
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Re: FR to open ZAG base

Thu May 13, 2021 4:50 am

oldJoe wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Ryanair further expands ZAG with two new routes: Malmo and Weeze.

https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/05/ry ... outes.html

Malmo will compete indirectly with OU's flights to Copenhagen while ZAG currently doesn't have any flights to DUS.


Are you seriously compare DUS and Weeze ( in nowhere land ) ??? That`s abaout oranges and a comparison with rotten tomatoes


I am comparing them because of their proximity to the city of Dusseldorf. They both have overlapping market spheres.
 
Blerg
Topic Author
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: FR to open ZAG base

Thu May 13, 2021 4:53 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Croatia Airlines reported to have hired BCG to help define post Covid strategy
https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... onsultants

Senior management at OU very likely know what they need to do, but need external validation of this in order to justify their actions publicly to the employees, Govt owner, and media


I think you give their management too much credit. They definitely knew about FR well in advance and could have prepared for this. On ex-YU Aviation someone wrote that even LH is no longer selling some of OU's flights out of ZAG and they are shifting passengers onto their own. If this is true then even LH isn't too optimistic about OU's future. I think out of OU's 4 daily they are no longer selling the evening one on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

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