MCTSET wrote:

I thought Zagreb was known for high fees, I guess C19 made them change their mind.

davidjohnson6 wrote:

Committing for 5 years, opening new routes and providing service year round doesn't sound particularly onerous. I imagine other LCCs could be persuaded to take an interest

Blerg wrote:

Good morning,

Various sources are reporting that in an hour at a press conference Ryanair will announce the opening of its newest base in Zagreb (ZAG). Flights are supposed to start in September and they will include the following destinations:

TGD, CIA, BGY, FMM, FKB, HHN, CRL, DTM, BVA, STN, GOT and TRF.

Will be interesting to see what becomes of Croatia Airlines as most of these will compete directly with their flights to primary airports in the same catchment area. In the past ZAG struggled to attract LCC carriers due to high charges and they accounted for only 4% of their total traffic.

Source:
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... tions.html

Update: flights have been loaded into the system.

hpff wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Good morning,

Various sources are reporting that in an hour at a press conference Ryanair will announce the opening of its newest base in Zagreb (ZAG). Flights are supposed to start in September and they will include the following destinations:

TGD, CIA, BGY, FMM, FKB, HHN, CRL, DTM, BVA, STN, GOT and TRF.

Will be interesting to see what becomes of Croatia Airlines as most of these will compete directly with their flights to primary airports in the same catchment area. In the past ZAG struggled to attract LCC carriers due to high charges and they accounted for only 4% of their total traffic.

Source:
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... tions.html

Update: flights have been loaded into the system.

FR only have announced 36 flights a week starting in September and there's less overlap than you'd think, though the markets with overlap are large markets, albeit to classic Ryanair secondary airports. It'll be interesting to watch.

Croatia Airlines only (April schedule):
Amsterdam
Copenhagen
Skopje
Zürich
Dublin
Sarajevo
Vienna
Dubrovnik
Split
Bol (Brač)
Zadar-Pula


Overlap:
Frankfurt*
Munich*
Brussels*
London*
Paris*

Ryanair Only:
Rome*
Podgorica
Baden
Gothenburg
Oslo
Dortmund

davidjohnson6 wrote:

Ryanair want to expand eventually to up to 40 routes from Zagreb.
https://www.exyuaviation.com/2021/03/ry ... agreb.html
Croatia Air are well and truly in deep trouble

SCQ83 wrote:

Wow. Is Ryanair using the new or the old terminal in ZAG?

So what will happen with the Zagreb-coast routes if OU goes bankrupt?

a350lover wrote:

16 new routes in Riga this winter.

All of them operated by Buzz

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/13 ... 40708?s=20

a350lover wrote:

Air Baltic is quite aggressive with its commercial strategy and offers convenient connections through the Baltics. I don't see the BT demise yet.

a350lover wrote:

16 new routes in Riga this winter.

All of them operated by Buzz

https://twitter.com/SeanM1997/status/13 ... 40708?s=20

mxaxai wrote:

a350lover wrote:

Air Baltic is quite aggressive with its commercial strategy and offers convenient connections through the Baltics. I don't see the BT demise yet.

I hope so. BT has been very ambitious with a large fleet of A220. Remember that they filed bankruptcy 10 years ago and have been government-owned since then. And while the Baltic states have seen major economic growth, they're still very price concious.

a350lover wrote:

Do you see Wizz responding to this only to make things even harder for all three of them?

avier wrote:

Poor Air Baltic

Falcon Flyer wrote:

My bet is BT will come out ahead. They've built some critical mass with the fleet and operation and the product is far superior. There may be some short term bleeding but long term, they'll come out on top.

Blerg wrote:

Don't forget that RIX has not yet recovered from covid so BT is still working on rebuilding its network. On top of that, they are coming in autumn which makes their intentions as clear as day. One thing BT does not have working in its favor is its hub's geographical location. They are too far north and most of their regional destinations are not a major source of passengers. Only Moscow is a truly big market in their vicinity. It's not like Austrian Airlines which has the Balkans with 70 million people and the whole of Middle East to fill seats on flights they compete directly on with Wizz Air and Ryanair out of Vienna. airBaltic will have to rely on Palanga, Vilnius, Helsinki, Minsk and so on.

artflyer wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Don't forget that RIX has not yet recovered from covid so BT is still working on rebuilding its network. On top of that, they are coming in autumn which makes their intentions as clear as day. One thing BT does not have working in its favor is its hub's geographical location. They are too far north and most of their regional destinations are not a major source of passengers. Only Moscow is a truly big market in their vicinity. It's not like Austrian Airlines which has the Balkans with 70 million people and the whole of Middle East to fill seats on flights they compete directly on with Wizz Air and Ryanair out of Vienna. airBaltic will have to rely on Palanga, Vilnius, Helsinki, Minsk and so on.

What you see as a weakness of BT may actually be their strength. Look at it in the following way: except for some routes that are already served from the Baltics by Wizz/Ryanair (like LON and other major Baltic emigrants routes), other routes flown by BT can hardly be operated with A220 at much less than daily frequences. To what I recall BT never had particularily high LFs and this despite their hub and spoke model and collecting pax from over the place, what Ryanair will be unable to do. Can Ryanair make these routes work long time with a bigger equipment? And I don't mean can it destroy BT short term, but what next?

BT was a blessing for LO at a time when it was investor in Nordica. LO wanted to do everything to avoid the need to fly direct from the Baltics, what in turn, and understandibly so, was the agenda of the Estonian state, a co-investor in Nordica. BT made it redundand for Nordica at that time, filling the gap, others did not want to fill. I wonder has anything changed since then.

alm1 wrote:

I would say these routes show crisis on Ryanair part. They have nowhere to fly and not enough markets to tap. They will never be able to fill planes in many of these routes and anybody savy in the market knows it. Routes like RIX-KRK would have been impossible to fill even in Summer 2019 with 5 euro tickets. Most of these routes will be gone in a year.

SCQ83 wrote:

alm1 wrote:

I would say these routes show crisis on Ryanair part. They have nowhere to fly and not enough markets to tap. They will never be able to fill planes in many of these routes and anybody savy in the market knows it. Routes like RIX-KRK would have been impossible to fill even in Summer 2019 with 5 euro tickets. Most of these routes will be gone in a year.

I agree with your POV, but I don't see Wizz any different. Some of WizzAir's new routes like Gdańsk-Skellefteå or Cluj Napoca-Mykonos would be even crazy before COVID.

artflyer wrote:

Given the number of Ukrainians working or studing in Poland, that seems to me to be a market with huge potential, provided flying is properly marketed to replace buses that are currently used by these people.

Blerg wrote:

artflyer wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Don't forget that RIX has not yet recovered from covid so BT is still working on rebuilding its network. On top of that, they are coming in autumn which makes their intentions as clear as day. One thing BT does not have working in its favor is its hub's geographical location. They are too far north and most of their regional destinations are not a major source of passengers. Only Moscow is a truly big market in their vicinity. It's not like Austrian Airlines which has the Balkans with 70 million people and the whole of Middle East to fill seats on flights they compete directly on with Wizz Air and Ryanair out of Vienna. airBaltic will have to rely on Palanga, Vilnius, Helsinki, Minsk and so on.

What you see as a weakness of BT may actually be their strength. Look at it in the following way: except for some routes that are already served from the Baltics by Wizz/Ryanair (like LON and other major Baltic emigrants routes), other routes flown by BT can hardly be operated with A220 at much less than daily frequences. To what I recall BT never had particularily high LFs and this despite their hub and spoke model and collecting pax from over the place, what Ryanair will be unable to do. Can Ryanair make these routes work long time with a bigger equipment? And I don't mean can it destroy BT short term, but what next?

BT was a blessing for LO at a time when it was investor in Nordica. LO wanted to do everything to avoid the need to fly direct from the Baltics, what in turn, and understandibly so, was the agenda of the Estonian state, a co-investor in Nordica. BT made it redundand for Nordica at that time, filling the gap, others did not want to fill. I wonder has anything changed since then.

I think the real question here is how long BT can last for? How much capital reserves do they have and in what way they can secure additional funds.

artflyer wrote:

Blerg wrote:

artflyer wrote:

What you see as a weakness of BT may actually be their strength. Look at it in the following way: except for some routes that are already served from the Baltics by Wizz/Ryanair (like LON and other major Baltic emigrants routes), other routes flown by BT can hardly be operated with A220 at much less than daily frequences. To what I recall BT never had particularily high LFs and this despite their hub and spoke model and collecting pax from over the place, what Ryanair will be unable to do. Can Ryanair make these routes work long time with a bigger equipment? And I don't mean can it destroy BT short term, but what next?

BT was a blessing for LO at a time when it was investor in Nordica. LO wanted to do everything to avoid the need to fly direct from the Baltics, what in turn, and understandibly so, was the agenda of the Estonian state, a co-investor in Nordica. BT made it redundand for Nordica at that time, filling the gap, others did not want to fill. I wonder has anything changed since then.

I think the real question here is how long BT can last for? How much capital reserves do they have and in what way they can secure additional funds.

Well, last year they got 250 mln euro from Estonia. In know initially Estonia planned to inject more, but that sum already seems to me a lot of money given their 2019 revenue of 509 mln euro. And more importantly all that money was equity and not loans! Consequently, it may be used to absorb losses as well as increases creditworthiness versus other creditors opening possibility to incure more financial liabilities or at least have a good trade credit. How much negative cashflow can you generate per year with 509 mln euro revenue (I do not care about amortisation of these shiny A220)? I also tend to recall they own most of their fleet, so in need could do sale-and-leaseback.

Falcon Flyer wrote:

My bet is BT will come out ahead. They've built some critical mass with the fleet and operation and the product is far superior. There may be some short term bleeding but long term, they'll come out on top.