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deltairlines
Posts: 7228
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:56 am

bcbhokie wrote:
deltairlines wrote:
rbavfan wrote:

AA is not that big in AUS. It would be between WN & DL.


The thing with AUS is that there's a ton of loyal AA flyers in that market. It's not much of an inconvenience for people to take a 45 minute flight up to DFW running every hour and then can go pretty much anywhere in the world.

For Delta, their presence in AUS historically has been limited. If all your travel was basically outside of an 800 mile radius of AUS, then you could make Delta work with flights to ATL/SLC/DTW/MSP/NYC/LAX. But if you needed to travel inside that radius, then Delta wouldn't be the carrier for you, which strikes down a very sizeable part of the traveling public. Even as Delta worked to build up Austin pre-pandemic, it still had a huge hole inside that 800 mile radius - a space that AA, UA and WN all easily play within.


I think this is precisely the opportunity DL saw pre-pandemic. By building up AUS with a few key point-to-point longer haul flights, then adding targeted direct flights within that 800-mile radius, they could help plug the Texas-sized hole in their network and go after one of the most affluent growing markets in the country.

Success for Delta in Austin doesn't mean defeating AA and WN - it just means carving out a 20-30% sized niche for themselves and enabling them to go after high value business travel to and from the area. They were already making investments toward this, like the gleaming new Sky Club at AUS, and I expect this to largely resume post-pandemic.


The other issue that Delta faces at AUS in terms of running a focus city that could support that type of operation is gates. Even with the recent expansion, AUS is bursting at the seams. Delta has four gates in AUS (7-10) and it looks like they can use some of the common use gates as available (they ran a SLC out of 3 today and a LAX out of 5). Still - when it comes to flights inside that radius, there's only so much you can do with four gates - once a normal operation gets back, four gates alone will handle basically service to the hubs (figure 8x ATL, 4x DTW/SLC/MSP/LAX, 3x JFK, 2x SEA, 1x BOS, 1x RDU in Summer 2022 - that's 27 flights a day). Now you want to add flights inside the 800 mile radius - to do so at convenient business times, you'd have to find more gates or chop flights to hubs. Otherwise, you fly to those other cities at more off-peak times - but odds are Southwest at least has flights to those same cities in a more optimal time channel.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 566
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:18 pm

deltairlines wrote:
bcbhokie wrote:
deltairlines wrote:

The thing with AUS is that there's a ton of loyal AA flyers in that market. It's not much of an inconvenience for people to take a 45 minute flight up to DFW running every hour and then can go pretty much anywhere in the world.

For Delta, their presence in AUS historically has been limited. If all your travel was basically outside of an 800 mile radius of AUS, then you could make Delta work with flights to ATL/SLC/DTW/MSP/NYC/LAX. But if you needed to travel inside that radius, then Delta wouldn't be the carrier for you, which strikes down a very sizeable part of the traveling public. Even as Delta worked to build up Austin pre-pandemic, it still had a huge hole inside that 800 mile radius - a space that AA, UA and WN all easily play within.


I think this is precisely the opportunity DL saw pre-pandemic. By building up AUS with a few key point-to-point longer haul flights, then adding targeted direct flights within that 800-mile radius, they could help plug the Texas-sized hole in their network and go after one of the most affluent growing markets in the country.

Success for Delta in Austin doesn't mean defeating AA and WN - it just means carving out a 20-30% sized niche for themselves and enabling them to go after high value business travel to and from the area. They were already making investments toward this, like the gleaming new Sky Club at AUS, and I expect this to largely resume post-pandemic.


The other issue that Delta faces at AUS in terms of running a focus city that could support that type of operation is gates. Even with the recent expansion, AUS is bursting at the seams. Delta has four gates in AUS (7-10) and it looks like they can use some of the common use gates as available (they ran a SLC out of 3 today and a LAX out of 5). Still - when it comes to flights inside that radius, there's only so much you can do with four gates - once a normal operation gets back, four gates alone will handle basically service to the hubs (figure 8x ATL, 4x DTW/SLC/MSP/LAX, 3x JFK, 2x SEA, 1x BOS, 1x RDU in Summer 2022 - that's 27 flights a day). Now you want to add flights inside the 800 mile radius - to do so at convenient business times, you'd have to find more gates or chop flights to hubs. Otherwise, you fly to those other cities at more off-peak times - but odds are Southwest at least has flights to those same cities in a more optimal time channel.

I think the labelling of AUS as a focus city was more a marketing tool than anything else for the reasons you mentioned; the same could also be said of BNA and SJC, which operationally have always been spokes. Given the current infrastructure at AUS, it's difficult to see how DL could in the short to medium term meaningfully expand there with P2P routes in the same way as we have seen at RDU, which does operate more as a traditional focus city. WN was already a competitive force at AUS, and with AA now adding P2P routes they will be the operating more of a focus city at AUS than DL; difficult to see how DL competes with that, and they haven't provided any indication that they will.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:31 pm

I don't quite understand this AUS hype or the need for DL to be large there. They really have no easy path to 25% market share or the legacy of choide. That's crazy talk.

DL will re-orient their network like all the other major carriers. It's pretty obvious with their recent pilot bid that SEA will be a major focus in the next couple of years at least. They already expanded SLC to be larger than pre-COVID size. They also brought back LAX faster than their competitors. DL is throwing the chips into West part of the country. That will have a much larger affect long term than whether or not they will add a few flights to AUS.

If we go by the assumption that they will be around 2019 capacity level by Q2 of 2023. They will need to hire pilots/FAs pretty aggressively to get to that level. What does DL's network look like?

If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

What does CVG look like in 2 to 3 years when business travel is closer to 2019 level? What will RDU look like? If you need to cover SEA/LAX/SLC expansion, those resources have to come from somewhere.

I think AUS expansion is not in the cards in the next 2 years.
 
Runway765
Posts: 315
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
I don't quite understand this AUS hype or the need for DL to be large there. They really have no easy path to 25% market share or the legacy of choide. That's crazy talk.

DL will re-orient their network like all the other major carriers. It's pretty obvious with their recent pilot bid that SEA will be a major focus in the next couple of years at least. They already expanded SLC to be larger than pre-COVID size. They also brought back LAX faster than their competitors. DL is throwing the chips into West part of the country. That will have a much larger affect long term than whether or not they will add a few flights to AUS.

If we go by the assumption that they will be around 2019 capacity level by Q2 of 2023. They will need to hire pilots/FAs pretty aggressively to get to that level. What does DL's network look like?

If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

What does CVG look like in 2 to 3 years when business travel is closer to 2019 level? What will RDU look like? If you need to cover SEA/LAX/SLC expansion, those resources have to come from somewhere.

I think AUS expansion is not in the cards in the next 2 years.


Exactly. If they wanted to get in on AUS, they should’ve funded the next terminal expansion and gotten a lease on 20 gates or so. Now it’s too late with the adds on WN/AA.

My opinion, dismantle BOS and MSP and use those resources to build up the west.
 
onwFan
Posts: 569
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

How can DL grow SEA by 25% of 2019 levels? Are they getting new gates? Either way, they have been desperately trying to sway customers from AS for quite some time, and I don’t think that things are going the way they expected. After the free $100, now they are offering a ‘Buy one, get one’ flash sale for non-stop flights originating in SEA:

https://www.delta.com/us/en/flight-deal ... bogo-deals

The fact that the sale is particularly for non-stop flights from SEA clearly shows where DL is struggling...
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:08 pm

onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

How can DL grow SEA by 25% of 2019 levels? Are they getting new gates? Either way, they have been desperately trying to sway customers from AS for quite some time, and I don’t think that things are going the way they expected. After the free $100, now they are offering a ‘Buy one, get one’ flash sale for non-stop flights originating in SEA:

https://www.delta.com/us/en/flight-deal ... bogo-deals

The fact that the sale is particularly for non-stop flights from SEA clearly shows where DL is struggling...


Easily, they have a lot of RJ routes right now that can be converted to A220. So there will be a lot of mainline growth. Which will allow them higher enplanement and be allocated additional gates. DL is very committed to SEA. You may disagree with their choice, but that's their choice.
 
onwFan
Posts: 569
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:13 pm

tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

How can DL grow SEA by 25% of 2019 levels? Are they getting new gates? Either way, they have been desperately trying to sway customers from AS for quite some time, and I don’t think that things are going the way they expected. After the free $100, now they are offering a ‘Buy one, get one’ flash sale for non-stop flights originating in SEA:

https://www.delta.com/us/en/flight-deal ... bogo-deals

The fact that the sale is particularly for non-stop flights from SEA clearly shows where DL is struggling...


Easily, they have a lot of RJ routes right now that can be converted to A220. So there will be a lot of mainline growth. Which will allow them higher enplanement and be allocated additional gates. DL is very committed to SEA. You may disagree with their choice, but that's their choice.

Given that they are not able to sustain even the current capacity levels, that sounds like a great idea!
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:21 pm

onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
How can DL grow SEA by 25% of 2019 levels? Are they getting new gates? Either way, they have been desperately trying to sway customers from AS for quite some time, and I don’t think that things are going the way they expected. After the free $100, now they are offering a ‘Buy one, get one’ flash sale for non-stop flights originating in SEA:

https://www.delta.com/us/en/flight-deal ... bogo-deals

The fact that the sale is particularly for non-stop flights from SEA clearly shows where DL is struggling...


Easily, they have a lot of RJ routes right now that can be converted to A220. So there will be a lot of mainline growth. Which will allow them higher enplanement and be allocated additional gates. DL is very committed to SEA. You may disagree with their choice, but that's their choice.

Given that they are not able to sustain even the current capacity levels, that sounds like a great idea!


How do you know they are not able to sustain even the current capacity level? The A220 total cost is not that much higher than RJs. There is nothing but upside for their operation at SEA if it gets a large fleet of A220. It would make them a lot more competitive on routes that former saw RJs.

They face no real challenge in any of their core hubs. How they deploy a gamechanger like A220 is based on where their corporate strategy lands in.
 
onwFan
Posts: 569
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Easily, they have a lot of RJ routes right now that can be converted to A220. So there will be a lot of mainline growth. Which will allow them higher enplanement and be allocated additional gates. DL is very committed to SEA. You may disagree with their choice, but that's their choice.

Given that they are not able to sustain even the current capacity levels, that sounds like a great idea!


How do you know they are not able to sustain even the current capacity level? The A220 total cost is not that much higher than RJs. There is nothing but upside for their operation at SEA if it gets a large fleet of A220. It would make them a lot more competitive on routes that former saw RJs.

They face no real challenge in any of their core hubs. How they deploy a gamechanger like A220 is based on where their corporate strategy lands in.

Are they giving away money & offering deals for SEA customers and non-stop flights from SEA because their flights are overbooked? If so, I stand corrected...
 
CRJ200flyer
Posts: 215
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:33 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Easily, they have a lot of RJ routes right now that can be converted to A220. So there will be a lot of mainline growth. Which will allow them higher enplanement and be allocated additional gates. DL is very committed to SEA. You may disagree with their choice, but that's their choice.

Given that they are not able to sustain even the current capacity levels, that sounds like a great idea!


How do you know they are not able to sustain even the current capacity level? The A220 total cost is not that much higher than RJs. There is nothing but upside for their operation at SEA if it gets a large fleet of A220. It would make them a lot more competitive on routes that former saw RJs.

They face no real challenge in any of their core hubs. How they deploy a gamechanger like A220 is based on where their corporate strategy lands in.


I think he’s referring to the staffing issues that have plagued every holiday the past 6 months and other performance problems.
 
SESGDL
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:25 pm

Runway765 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't quite understand this AUS hype or the need for DL to be large there. They really have no easy path to 25% market share or the legacy of choide. That's crazy talk.

DL will re-orient their network like all the other major carriers. It's pretty obvious with their recent pilot bid that SEA will be a major focus in the next couple of years at least. They already expanded SLC to be larger than pre-COVID size. They also brought back LAX faster than their competitors. DL is throwing the chips into West part of the country. That will have a much larger affect long term than whether or not they will add a few flights to AUS.

If we go by the assumption that they will be around 2019 capacity level by Q2 of 2023. They will need to hire pilots/FAs pretty aggressively to get to that level. What does DL's network look like?

If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

What does CVG look like in 2 to 3 years when business travel is closer to 2019 level? What will RDU look like? If you need to cover SEA/LAX/SLC expansion, those resources have to come from somewhere.

I think AUS expansion is not in the cards in the next 2 years.


Exactly. If they wanted to get in on AUS, they should’ve funded the next terminal expansion and gotten a lease on 20 gates or so. Now it’s too late with the adds on WN/AA.

My opinion, dismantle BOS and MSP and use those resources to build up the west.


Why would DL dismantle its 2nd/3rd largest hub and second largest O&D operation? I guess DL wants to lose money? DL has been as profitable as it has been because of its ability to dominate ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC. DL isn’t going to dismantle or significantly downsize any of these.

Jeremy
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:33 pm

onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Given that they are not able to sustain even the current capacity levels, that sounds like a great idea!


How do you know they are not able to sustain even the current capacity level? The A220 total cost is not that much higher than RJs. There is nothing but upside for their operation at SEA if it gets a large fleet of A220. It would make them a lot more competitive on routes that former saw RJs.

They face no real challenge in any of their core hubs. How they deploy a gamechanger like A220 is based on where their corporate strategy lands in.

Are they giving away money & offering deals for SEA customers and non-stop flights from SEA because their flights are overbooked? If so, I stand corrected...


That will not last forever. This is more about the medium to long term direction. At some point in 2023, they will most likely be back to pre-COVID size. They will have the fleet and head count to do that. The question is how will their network look at that time.

DL's latest bid for all the UNA pilots sees a huge jump in SEA base. While the training could take up to a year to complete. This would point to SEA as their major growth area over the next year or two.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4182
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:45 pm

tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
tphuang wrote:

How do you know they are not able to sustain even the current capacity level? The A220 total cost is not that much higher than RJs. There is nothing but upside for their operation at SEA if it gets a large fleet of A220. It would make them a lot more competitive on routes that former saw RJs.

They face no real challenge in any of their core hubs. How they deploy a gamechanger like A220 is based on where their corporate strategy lands in.

Are they giving away money & offering deals for SEA customers and non-stop flights from SEA because their flights are overbooked? If so, I stand corrected...


That will not last forever. This is more about the medium to long term direction. At some point in 2023, they will most likely be back to pre-COVID size. They will have the fleet and head count to do that. The question is how will their network look at that time.

DL's latest bid for all the UNA pilots sees a huge jump in SEA base. While the training could take up to a year to complete. This would point to SEA as their major growth area over the next year or two.


That's obvious. DL has invested a lot in SEA and will need to defend that. The verdict on the AS/AA tie up is very much out there, depending on how long a game AA can afford to play, but the outlook for DL at SEA is not as bright. If you look at the OW options TPAC ex SEA once things can and do come back on line, plus QR, you get the picture of a much more robust OW gateway over SkyTeam.
 
floridaflyboy
Posts: 1618
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:26 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:21 pm

Runway765 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't quite understand this AUS hype or the need for DL to be large there. They really have no easy path to 25% market share or the legacy of choide. That's crazy talk.

DL will re-orient their network like all the other major carriers. It's pretty obvious with their recent pilot bid that SEA will be a major focus in the next couple of years at least. They already expanded SLC to be larger than pre-COVID size. They also brought back LAX faster than their competitors. DL is throwing the chips into West part of the country. That will have a much larger affect long term than whether or not they will add a few flights to AUS.

If we go by the assumption that they will be around 2019 capacity level by Q2 of 2023. They will need to hire pilots/FAs pretty aggressively to get to that level. What does DL's network look like?

If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

What does CVG look like in 2 to 3 years when business travel is closer to 2019 level? What will RDU look like? If you need to cover SEA/LAX/SLC expansion, those resources have to come from somewhere.

I think AUS expansion is not in the cards in the next 2 years.


Exactly. If they wanted to get in on AUS, they should’ve funded the next terminal expansion and gotten a lease on 20 gates or so. Now it’s too late with the adds on WN/AA.

My opinion, dismantle BOS and MSP and use those resources to build up the west.


Dismantle MSP???? LMAO. I've now heard it all on this site. There used to be quality content on here.
Good goes around!
 
deltairlines
Posts: 7228
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 8:45 pm

floridaflyboy wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
I don't quite understand this AUS hype or the need for DL to be large there. They really have no easy path to 25% market share or the legacy of choide. That's crazy talk.

DL will re-orient their network like all the other major carriers. It's pretty obvious with their recent pilot bid that SEA will be a major focus in the next couple of years at least. They already expanded SLC to be larger than pre-COVID size. They also brought back LAX faster than their competitors. DL is throwing the chips into West part of the country. That will have a much larger affect long term than whether or not they will add a few flights to AUS.

If we go by the assumption that they will be around 2019 capacity level by Q2 of 2023. They will need to hire pilots/FAs pretty aggressively to get to that level. What does DL's network look like?

If SEA is 25% larger than 2019 size and LAX/SLC are 10 to 20% larger? Where do they shrink from? Maybe MSP/DTW will be smaller? I can't imagine NYC will lose many flights, since they need to keep their slots. Reducing BOS/CVG/RDU alone will not give them the resources they need to cover all the western expansions.

What does CVG look like in 2 to 3 years when business travel is closer to 2019 level? What will RDU look like? If you need to cover SEA/LAX/SLC expansion, those resources have to come from somewhere.

I think AUS expansion is not in the cards in the next 2 years.


Exactly. If they wanted to get in on AUS, they should’ve funded the next terminal expansion and gotten a lease on 20 gates or so. Now it’s too late with the adds on WN/AA.

My opinion, dismantle BOS and MSP and use those resources to build up the west.


Dismantle MSP???? LMAO. I've now heard it all on this site. There used to be quality content on here.


I'm glad that I'm not the only one that had the same exact thought when reading this.

MSP (in normal times) is a money printer for Delta. Sure, it remains to be seen how much corporate travel goes away completely now with virtual meetings being more common, but there will still be a good bit of it, especially with all the large corporations being there. Unlike other areas of the country, there doesn't seem to be any rush (from people or corporations) to move to other locales. Aside from the weather being miserable for a good bit of the year, it's a good place to live (and honestly, people that grew up there and have lived there their entire lives don't mind the weather that much...it's more a source of pride for them).

It makes sense to continue growing BOS and RDU as well. BOS is (becoming) a major health-tech area in the country - this industry is only going to keep exploding. Boston also has arguably the most robust set of universities for a city compared to anywhere else in the country and a tax rate that's tolerable enough for businesses to want to stay. RDU is very much a similar story in the Southeast - one that's seen rocketing growth in the past decade.

As for what gets cut? CVG.

As for growing out west, network wise, there's not a ton left out there for Delta to grow in terms of adding dots on a map. A lot of the capacity increase is going to be upgauging and there are planes coming in to be able to handle that in a few years.
 
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AirportRival
Posts: 432
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:32 pm

Any guesses as to how far back I could go to see people predicting that Delta is going to cut CVG? I've never quite understood the constant negativity that people have towards CVG on here.

Yes Delta has cut CVG over the years and yes there is a chance that they will cut more in the coming years but I have a hard time believing that they are going to just give up on CVG and make it just a spoke with service to hubs only. Before the pandemic, the passenger count flying Delta out of CVG was growing again. If it continues when a sense of normalcy comes back then why would Delta keep cutting?
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4044
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:09 pm

AirportRival wrote:
Any guesses as to how far back I could go to see people predicting that Delta is going to cut CVG? I've never quite understood the constant negativity that people have towards CVG on here.

Yes Delta has cut CVG over the years and yes there is a chance that they will cut more in the coming years but I have a hard time believing that they are going to just give up on CVG and make it just a spoke with service to hubs only. Before the pandemic, the passenger count flying Delta out of CVG was growing again. If it continues when a sense of normalcy comes back then why would Delta keep cutting?


CVG is not even a DL focus city anymore. That should be telling about what DL plans to do there in the foreseeable future.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:15 pm

It's going to take until sometimes in 2023 for DL to be back to pre-COVID capacity just due to all the pilot/FA retirements. Even that would assume pretty aggressive hiring for the next 2 years and the ability to train all the formerly displaced pilots + all the new hires A lot of the LCC/ULCCs don't have to deal with this due to having single fleet type and/or very few retirements and keeping pilots current. DL's recovery is slowed by its aggressive personnel reductions in the past year.

As a result, it will have to pick and chose which hubs/focus cities come back sooner. As I said, there is a lot of mainline growth coming at SEA. SLC is already above pre-COVID size and poised to grow a lot more due to new space opening up. LAX is going to see aggressive growth. DL looks like it wants to win market share there. NYC might see more RJ and less mainline, but I would guess it will be more or less pre-COVID size in 2 or 3 years. They have invested too much money in NYC to throw that away. Keep in mind that they have reocvered to this size without having to utilize all of their LGA/JFK slots. There will have to be a hug redirection of resources when that happens.

Sure, they will have a lot of pilots come online in the next 2 years, but a very large chunk of those pilots will go to the very under served NYC (after slot waiver goes away) and west side of the country. It seems to me that either MSP or DTW will see slower recovery than other core hubs. They seem to be willing to be less competitive in the heartland vs AA.

And no, reducing CVG alone will not be enough to fund the growth at SLC/SEA/LAX. You can make your own guesses on how large DL will be at BOS/RDU/CVG in 2 years. I expect them to all be quite a bit smaller than pre-COVID. Whether they ever recover to pre-COVID size is hard to say. That really depends on what kind of opportunities will open up.

It should not shock people if some of the routes you see operating out of BOS/RDU/CVG or even MSP/DTW gets cuts in the next year as they are forced to bring back all the NYC flying and expand in the west part of the country. I'm not talking about routes that have been cut month to month. I'm talking about routes that have actually operated a few months, but may not be generating enough returns when the core business traffic returns.
 
Detroit313
Posts: 634
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:16 pm

As for CVG, think of Memphis. Delta used to claim Memphis would definitely remain a hub, but now AA is bigger than DL in Memphis!
 
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AirportRival
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:55 am

usflyer msp wrote:
AirportRival wrote:
Any guesses as to how far back I could go to see people predicting that Delta is going to cut CVG? I've never quite understood the constant negativity that people have towards CVG on here.

Yes Delta has cut CVG over the years and yes there is a chance that they will cut more in the coming years but I have a hard time believing that they are going to just give up on CVG and make it just a spoke with service to hubs only. Before the pandemic, the passenger count flying Delta out of CVG was growing again. If it continues when a sense of normalcy comes back then why would Delta keep cutting?


CVG is not even a DL focus city anymore. That should be telling about what DL plans to do there in the foreseeable future.


The focus city designation has proven to mean nothing.
 
umichman
Posts: 231
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:30 am

AirportRival wrote:
The focus city designation has proven to mean nothing.


People tend to interpret that designation in terms of current operations, but DL's interpretation seems to be more focused on the future. And just because CVG is not called a "focus" city by DL any longer, does not mean DL won't maintain a complement of point-to-point flying from there. The reality is that the O&D demand from there is quite a bit stronger than MEM was. CVG is currently scheduled to have EWR/BWI/DCA/PHL/RDU/MCO/FLL/RSW/TPA/DFW/ORD/DEN/LAS/SFO non-hub flights by September 7th, while RDU is scheduled to have CVG/BDL/EWR/BWI/DCA/PHL/JAX/MCO/FLL/MIA/TPA/AUS/BNA/IND/ORD/LAS/CUN flights by then. Both are also scheduled to have the CDG flight return. The reality is that CVG doesn't really have much left to fund other hubs and I doubt it will get cut much further. CVG-AUS/BDL/MCI/STL/CLT were cut through end-of-schedule during Covid and are probably not coming back (other than maybe AUS). RDU-AUS/CLE/CVG/PIT were also cut through end-of-schedule during Covid, but RDU-AUS has already returned and it seems likely it may pick up additional point-to-point flying beyond what is currently in September schedule.
 
n9801f
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:58 am

SESGDL wrote:
DL has been as profitable as it has been because of its ability to dominate ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC.

You sound very confident about this.

But do you realize that LCC/ULCC's now operate nonstop from ATL to 60+ airports?

The LCC/ULCC's grew slowly but steadily in ATL, and today the combination of Southwest, Spirit, and Frontier are a serious competitive threat.

Legacy airlines like Delta depend on high yields on nonstop ODs from a hub to average up the lower yield of connecting passengers. This is a key ingredient to their profitability.

But Delta's hand in Atlanta is weakening these days. LCC's are now present even in small traditional Delta stronghold markets like GSP and JAN. They will provide new price discipline, especially in a recovery focused on leisure travel.

Delta can't afford to be complacent. Its ability to "dominate" (your word) ATL is weakening. And this will hurt profitability.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:15 am

n9801f wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
DL has been as profitable as it has been because of its ability to dominate ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC.

You sound very confident about this.

But do you realize that LCC/ULCC's now operate nonstop from ATL to 60+ airports?

The LCC/ULCC's grew slowly but steadily in ATL, and today the combination of Southwest, Spirit, and Frontier are a serious competitive threat.

Legacy airlines like Delta depend on high yields on nonstop ODs from a hub to average up the lower yield of connecting passengers. This is a key ingredient to their profitability.

But Delta's hand in Atlanta is weakening these days. LCC's are now present even in small traditional Delta stronghold markets like GSP and JAN. They will provide new price discipline, especially in a recovery focused on leisure travel.

Delta can't afford to be complacent. Its ability to "dominate" (your word) ATL is weakening. And this will hurt profitability.


The business travellers DL's business model depends on are not flying F9 and NK anywhere and DL is not crying over missing $39 ATL-Florida passengers. ATL and DL's other core hubs are fine.
 
SESGDL
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:25 pm

n9801f wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
DL has been as profitable as it has been because of its ability to dominate ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC.

You sound very confident about this.

But do you realize that LCC/ULCC's now operate nonstop from ATL to 60+ airports?

The LCC/ULCC's grew slowly but steadily in ATL, and today the combination of Southwest, Spirit, and Frontier are a serious competitive threat.

Legacy airlines like Delta depend on high yields on nonstop ODs from a hub to average up the lower yield of connecting passengers. This is a key ingredient to their profitability.

But Delta's hand in Atlanta is weakening these days. LCC's are now present even in small traditional Delta stronghold markets like GSP and JAN. They will provide new price discipline, especially in a recovery focused on leisure travel.

Delta can't afford to be complacent. Its ability to "dominate" (your word) ATL is weakening. And this will hurt profitability.


Are you kidding? DL’s ATL hub continues to be the largest airline hub on earth. If ATL is suddenly in jeopardy from ULCCs than every other US airline hub is in big trouble. You listing 60+ cities being served is misleading; does stuff like F9 offering twice weekly flights to “alternate” airports count in that total? DL continues to maintain a 70%+ market share at ATL, and similar or higher totals at its other hubs. ULCCs have expanded service everywhere since COVID. Are AA’s hub also now in jeopardy of not being profitable due to increased pressure from NK and F9? DL isn’t unique in this fight. But it will be impossible for any airline to challenge DL’s 800+ daily flights from ATL to over 200 destinations this summer. Nice try though...

Jeremy
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:46 pm

AirportRival wrote:
Any guesses as to how far back I could go to see people predicting that Delta is going to cut CVG? I've never quite understood the constant negativity that people have towards CVG on here.

Yes Delta has cut CVG over the years and yes there is a chance that they will cut more in the coming years but I have a hard time believing that they are going to just give up on CVG and make it just a spoke with service to hubs only. Before the pandemic, the passenger count flying Delta out of CVG was growing again. If it continues when a sense of normalcy comes back then why would Delta keep cutting?


Don't forget, DL doesn't need to operate a large network from CVG in order to maintain loyalty, DL has a captive FF base in CVG.

My guesses

Non-hubs returning:
DEN
FLL
RSW
LAS
MCO
DCA
RDU
EWR
TPA
SFO (Monopoly)

——
Question marks
ORD
BWI
PHL
DFW

n9801f wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
DL has been as profitable as it has been because of its ability to dominate ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC.

You sound very confident about this.

But do you realize that LCC/ULCC's now operate nonstop from ATL to 60+ airports?

The LCC/ULCC's grew slowly but steadily in ATL, and today the combination of Southwest, Spirit, and Frontier are a serious competitive threat.

Legacy airlines like Delta depend on high yields on nonstop ODs from a hub to average up the lower yield of connecting passengers. This is a key ingredient to their profitability.

But Delta's hand in Atlanta is weakening these days. LCC's are now present even in small traditional Delta stronghold markets like GSP and JAN. They will provide new price discipline, especially in a recovery focused on leisure travel.

Delta can't afford to be complacent. Its ability to "dominate" (your word) ATL is weakening. And this will hurt profitability.


The person you quoted is correct.

WN & NK combined make up a mere 11% of the total ATL traffic. Frontier was ~1%
https://www.atl.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... c-2019.pdf

ATL is for all intents and purposes a monopoly DL hub,
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
piedmontEWN
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
n9801f wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
DL has been as profitable as it has been because of its ability to dominate ATL, DTW, MSP and SLC.

You sound very confident about this.

But do you realize that LCC/ULCC's now operate nonstop from ATL to 60+ airports?

The LCC/ULCC's grew slowly but steadily in ATL, and today the combination of Southwest, Spirit, and Frontier are a serious competitive threat.

Legacy airlines like Delta depend on high yields on nonstop ODs from a hub to average up the lower yield of connecting passengers. This is a key ingredient to their profitability.

But Delta's hand in Atlanta is weakening these days. LCC's are now present even in small traditional Delta stronghold markets like GSP and JAN. They will provide new price discipline, especially in a recovery focused on leisure travel.

Delta can't afford to be complacent. Its ability to "dominate" (your word) ATL is weakening. And this will hurt profitability.


The business travellers DL's business model depends on are not flying F9 and NK anywhere and DL is not crying over missing $39 ATL-Florida passengers. ATL and DL's other core hubs are fine.


Agreed. "Dominate" might have been an understatement.
 
umichman
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:36 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AirportRival wrote:
Any guesses as to how far back I could go to see people predicting that Delta is going to cut CVG? I've never quite understood the constant negativity that people have towards CVG on here.

Yes Delta has cut CVG over the years and yes there is a chance that they will cut more in the coming years but I have a hard time believing that they are going to just give up on CVG and make it just a spoke with service to hubs only. Before the pandemic, the passenger count flying Delta out of CVG was growing again. If it continues when a sense of normalcy comes back then why would Delta keep cutting?


Don't forget, DL doesn't need to operate a large network from CVG in order to maintain loyalty, DL has a captive FF base in CVG.

My guesses

Non-hubs returning:
DEN
FLL
RSW
LAS
MCO
DCA
RDU
EWR
TPA
SFO (Monopoly)

——
Question marks
ORD
BWI
PHL
DFW



I put up a list of non-hub flights to be operated out of CVG a few posts above. A number of these are already operating (DEN/LAS/FLL/RSW/TPA/MCO/EWR). ORD/DFW/SFO are currently scheduled to restart on June 5th and are likely firm. BWI/PHL/RDU recently had their restarts pushed back to September 7th and may be less certain. While SEA is a hub, it was cut during Covid, but is scheduled to return May 6th. AUS/BDL/MCI/STL were cut through end-of-schedule during Covid and will likely not come back (although I suspect AUS is a possibility). CDG flight is scheduled to return August 1st.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:56 pm

I posted this before, but I think it helps bring some data and adds some context to the discussion. Below is DL's fleet plan based on known retirements and delivery schedule through 2022. Based on the 10-K data, it doesn't yet break out deliveries by year in 2023+ so we don't know the exact number of frames.
There is a couple of assumptions, that could go either way and are already a bit fluid (e.g. like will the 717 fleet stay as-is at 45 or when are more frames remove?, DL has "un-retired" 5 of the 10 A320s they removed in 2020 to fly at least through 2021, DL also temporarily "unretired" some 763s for this summer)

I don't have the Delta Connection fleet data in here, but there is no significant change in the number of 2-class RJs as that is capped by scope. On the CR2 side, its down a lot but unknown much it will ramp-up before retirement in 2023.

Anyways, the biggest change is the reduction in the number of small narrowbodies - 717 retirements, and slower delivery schedule of the A221 & A223.
The 717s pre-COVID were being on the west coast, in DTW & MSP, ATL, and NYC. Post-COVID, the majority of 717 flying on the West Coast has transitioned to A221/A223. MSP flying is gone, mostly replaced by CR9/E75. DTW flying is reduced significantly, a lot backfilled by CR9/E75. NYC flying is gone. In ATL, the 717 is backfilling a lot of the thinner, former MD88 routes. What means is the CR9/E75 p2p reductions are backfilling 717 flying from the core hubs.

The number of large narrowbodies will continue to increase YOY as there have been no retirements in this category, just slower delivery plan of the A321CEO and NEOs. These larger capacity aircraft have more seats than the capacity they essentially replace (MD88/90).

Another thing is that the A321CEO/NEO and the A220s all are far more versitle and can be used at much higher utilization than the aircraft they replace. They can fly mid-con/transcons, used on red-eyes, etc. They can easily get more flight hours per day and extend the operating day more than aircraft like MD88s that were constrained to East Coast ATL flying. The A221/3 is being used to upgauge some of the longer CR9/E75 flights, particularly a lot of the hub-Texas flying that frees-up a lot aircraft time on those fleet types to deploy elsewhere on shorter segments. Also, the 757 aircraft have typically been relatively low utilization aircraft. If push comes to shove, in the near-term increasing utilization of the 757s can offset some of the lost capacity elsewhere.

Comparing some YOY data, from 10-K, I've prepared some analysis on Pre-COVID vs Post-COVID fleet plans:
Note "italics" indicate an estimated number, based on retirements. I made estimates on the MD90 (pre-COVID, B712, B763 retirement schedule in future years.
This is based on baseline from the 2019 Year-End 10K, and revised based on fleet size and revised delivery schedule in the 2020 Year-end 10K
Some of my capacity/seat counts may be slightly off, going off memory and/or there was variation by sub-types, but was trying to create general groupings of aircraft types.


Small Narrowbody:

PRE-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
A221 109 4 28 45 45 45
A223 130 0 0 6 18 36
B712 110 91 91 91 91 91
B73G 130 10 10 10 10 10
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 209 221 239

POST-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
A221 109 4 28 38 41 45
A223 130 0 0 5 10 17
B712 110 91 91 50 42 31
B73G 130 10 10 0 0 0
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 150 150 150

The number of small narrowbodies, (110-130 seat) is going to decrease and be about 80-90 frames less than pre-COVID through 2022.
Primarily from accelerated retirement of 717s, the retirement of the 73G fleet, and pushing out A220 deliveries.
The buffer is going to be how many degrees of freedom there is to either accelerate or extend the B717 retirement, currently planned by December 2025.
Considering they are an orphan fleet type, I'm sure lessors would be more than willing to extend leases if necessary in the out years if additional capacity is needed in this fleet size.

Medium Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 62 62 62
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 30 30 0
MED NB 266 216 169 169 139

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 52 52 52
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 0 0 0
MED NB 266 216 129 129 129

For medium-sized narrowbodies, in the 150-160 seat range, the MD88s were already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2020, and the MD90s were gone by the end of 2022 if not sooner. No deliveries in this capacity segment for the forseeable future. Since the A320s, other than the 10 that were retired in 2020 that were due up for heavy maintenance, the rest will likely stay for the next few years, at least through 2022.

Large Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 127 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 1 42 82
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 374 415 455

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 105 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 0 0 18
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 351 373 391

Large narrowbodies didn't see any early retirements but have had deliveries delayed with the A321CEO & NEO. Going to be about 50-60 frames less than anticipated preCovid growth at the end of 2020 that pre-pandemic plans.

Widebody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B763 226 58 56 56 56 56
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 11 22 30
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 17 19 19
B77E/L 290 18 18 18 18 18
WB FLEET 150 154 165 178 186

Post-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B763 226 58 56 34 31 23
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 8 11 19
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 15 15 17
B77E/L 290 18 18 0 0 0
WB FLEET 150 154 120 120 122

Pre-Covid, DL was at 150-154 widebodies with plans to grow the fleet to approaching 180 frames by end of 2022.
Now the fleet is currently at 120 frames and going to be relatively flat in size through 2022 as A339 & A359 deliveries will be offset by B763 retirements.
B763 retirements will act as the buffer with full retirement of the remaining 34 frames planned by December 2025.

TOTAL:

Pre-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
TOTAL 871 898 917 983 1019

Post-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
TOTAL 871 898 750 772 792

The pre-COVID fleet size was a bit optimistic, as it likely didn't include any potential retirements to offset the large number of deliveries if all the A220, A321CEO, NEOs has been delivered to the pre-pandemic plan. If demand kept growing at the rate it was in a hot economy it was possible.
Now at YE2020, DL is down to 750 mainline aircraft and planning to slowing grow/rebuild from there. Instead of being near/above 1000 aircraft by YE2022, DL will now likely be around 800. 20% less than pre-pandemic.
Last edited by PSU.DTW.SCE on Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 554
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:08 pm

Wow - 20% reduction in fleet. Do you happen to have the seat capacity number as well? (I know I know... I could do the rough math myself off your numbers). It’ll be very interesting to see how that plays out for them in 22/23. DL was the most conservative in guessing how long this was going to drag on and while I agreed with them until a month or two ago - the demand boom is here sooner than I thought.

My guess is we’re going to continue seeing those intl widebodies domestically for some time, not only because of COVID restrictions, but because they’re going to need to seat capacity in many of these hub-hub and hub-leisure markets.

It seems to me their real struggle is going to be the small markets and P2P (what’s left) though. There is now a serious shortage of small narrowbodies and with their decision to essentially rid the CR2 from property outside of EAS flying, there will be very little flexibility in general, and coupled with pilot training/logistical issues, going from 50 to 76 seaters to anything larger
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:12 pm

umichman wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AirportRival wrote:
Any guesses as to how far back I could go to see people predicting that Delta is going to cut CVG? I've never quite understood the constant negativity that people have towards CVG on here.

Yes Delta has cut CVG over the years and yes there is a chance that they will cut more in the coming years but I have a hard time believing that they are going to just give up on CVG and make it just a spoke with service to hubs only. Before the pandemic, the passenger count flying Delta out of CVG was growing again. If it continues when a sense of normalcy comes back then why would Delta keep cutting?


Don't forget, DL doesn't need to operate a large network from CVG in order to maintain loyalty, DL has a captive FF base in CVG.

My guesses

Non-hubs returning:
DEN
FLL
RSW
LAS
MCO
DCA
RDU
EWR
TPA
SFO (Monopoly)

——
Question marks
ORD
BWI
PHL
DFW



I put up a list of non-hub flights to be operated out of CVG a few posts above. A number of these are already operating (DEN/LAS/FLL/RSW/TPA/MCO/EWR). ORD/DFW/SFO are currently scheduled to restart on June 5th and are likely firm. BWI/PHL/RDU recently had their restarts pushed back to September 7th and may be less certain. While SEA is a hub, it was cut during Covid, but is scheduled to return May 6th. AUS/BDL/MCI/STL were cut through end-of-schedule during Covid and will likely not come back (although I suspect AUS is a possibility). CDG flight is scheduled to return August 1st.


I'm aware of all those flights.

Anything after June 5th is not firm, and anything operating/scheduled currently can still be cut in the future. Especially RJ routes.


Since 2019, DL has cut:

YYZ
PHX
CUN
STL
MCI
IAH
BDL
AUS
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:22 pm

Based on that pre/post covid fleet breakdown, I don't see how they can even get back to Year end 2019 capacity level by 2023 unless they shift a lot of their flying to RJ, which would probably violate scope clause. Of course, nothing prevents DL from picking up some used aircraft on the cheap.

The bigger issue imo is still pilot count. 1600 to 1700 pilot bid that closes on the 15th. How long does that and cascading training event take to finish? On top of that, someone said they had 2200+ pilots retire or take early outs. I'm sure there will be more retirement over the 2 years. Just to get back to pre-COVID pilot head count, they will probably need to hire 2500 pilots and train them. Train 4000+ pilots. How long is that going to take?

Keep in mind, AA will also have this problem because they furloughed pilots. UA will have a smaller problem, but it still needs to aggressively rehire.

It seems to me not that easy for DL to get back to 2019 summer capacity by summer of 2023.

Let's say from this summer to next summer. You add back 1700 pilots which will allow them to fully fly 790 aircraft. Is that enough to cover the additional flying they will have to do at JFK/LGA/DCA once slot waiver goes away + their expansion at SEA/LAX/SLC? That's 400 to 500 R/T a day. Seems like a stretch.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8683
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:37 pm

A few more data points, here is the Connection fleet

DCI Systemwide:
CR2 54
CR7 24
CR9 150
E70 18
E75 94
TOTAL 340

Notes:
- 35 aircraft temporarily parked; doesn't indicate type or carrier
- During 2020, Compass and GoJets ceased operations as DCI carriers
- In the near-term for 2021 and 2022, its possible the number of active CR2s may increase slightly from current as Skywest ended all non-EAS CR2 flying for DL in 2020 and some of the the aircraft and flying transitions to Endeavor under a CPA/wholy-owned; stil down from ~125 pre-COVID.

Delivery schedule by type:
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 62 100
A330-900neo 3 8 8 10 29
A350-900 — 2 — 18 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 39 39 112 224

Some key-takeaways
- 2021 deliveries will include 3 A221, 5 A223, 22 A321, 3 A339, 1 CR9
- Remainder of A321CEOs to be delivered in 2021
- A321NEO deliveries will not start until 2022
- Big defferal on A220s pushed to out years, only taking 8 A221/3's in 2021
- One incremental A339 added, to be leased in 2021
- New deliveries in 2021, 2022, 2023 effectively half of pre-COVID planned deliveries
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8683
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:43 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Wow - 20% reduction in fleet. Do you happen to have the seat capacity number as well? (I know I know... I could do the rough math myself off your numbers). It’ll be very interesting to see how that plays out for them in 22/23. DL was the most conservative in guessing how long this was going to drag on and while I agreed with them until a month or two ago - the demand boom is here sooner than I thought.

My guess is we’re going to continue seeing those intl widebodies domestically for some time, not only because of COVID restrictions, but because they’re going to need to seat capacity in many of these hub-hub and hub-leisure markets.

It seems to me their real struggle is going to be the small markets and P2P (what’s left) though. There is now a serious shortage of small narrowbodies and with their decision to essentially rid the CR2 from property outside of EAS flying, there will be very little flexibility in general, and coupled with pilot training/logistical issues, going from 50 to 76 seaters to anything larger

I have the ~number of seats by type in the data, but its not really all that meaniful to do total seats since the bigger variable is on the utilization of the aircraft themselves - as in ASMs, utilization, etc. The can easily change the frequency / gauge to get similar capacity in markets where it makes sense. You are right as the 2-class RJ fleet CR7/CR9/E70/E75 gets stretched in multiple directions in the next few years. In the low-end needed to backfill and upgauge CR2 routes, and on the high-end backfill for the reduction of 717s; as well is being used for "route building" as they were extensively deployed to help initially build-up LGA and then SEA, and also in places like RDU/CVG/BOS/BNA.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:54 pm

I think its also worth looking at from a different perspective;

Summer 2021 really isn't the big issue here:
-Domestic - Leisure & VFR is coming back strong and will be essentially recovered (maybe not yields, but at least demand) this summer.
-International - is going to remain heavily restricted and suppressed, and while some countries are looking for ways to salvage summer tourism, its already late for anyone that likes to do advanced planning
- Business travel, while there is going to likely be a slow crawl up over the next few months, its not really going to unlock much until after summer
- DL is constrained a bit in the short term working through the pilot retraining issues in the near-term and hopefully more that is better by peak summer, but not constrained by fleet,
- Hence you are seeing DL starting to firm-up their summer schedule, but cutting non-core and business heavy routes out until September instead of the rolling month-to-month reductions from the default / placeholder schedule

Thus with business travel a fraction of pre-COVID, limited international demand/traffic, and the domestic capacity that would typically support and flow to international connections, they can likely cover the peak demand. And frankly, even if they can't cover the capacity, that will likely increase yields and just spill traffic all over the place. (although the industry as whole may be capacity constrained, while will drive yields up across the board).

Fall 2021:
- After peak summer, and hopefully business travel starts to resume, it won't be an issue as peak domestic / leisure VFR subsides a bit
- Maybe if some international restrictions ease-up they can salvage a bit of TATL leisure and pent-up VFR demand by early fall
- Pre-COVID, DL was typically flying 30% fewer ASMs during low winter vs. peak-summer

Summer 2022 is really the big wildcard depending on how everything recovers. That is were fleet constraints may come into play, where they are going to be ~100 mainline aircraft (~70 NB / ~30 WB) less than 2019 Pre-Covid.
 
Oliver2020
Posts: 223
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:05 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
A few more data points, here is the Connection fleet

DCI Systemwide:
CR2 54
CR7 24
CR9 150
E70 18
E75 94
TOTAL 340

Notes:
- 35 aircraft temporarily parked; doesn't indicate type or carrier
- During 2020, Compass and GoJets ceased operations as DCI carriers
- In the near-term for 2021 and 2022, its possible the number of active CR2s may increase slightly from current as Skywest ended all non-EAS CR2 flying for DL in 2020 and some of the the aircraft and flying transitions to Endeavor under a CPA/wholy-owned; stil down from ~125 pre-COVID.

Delivery schedule by type:
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 62 100
A330-900neo 3 8 8 10 29
A350-900 — 2 — 18 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 39 39 112 224

Some key-takeaways
- 2021 deliveries will include 3 A221, 5 A223, 22 A321, 3 A339, 1 CR9
- Remainder of A321CEOs to be delivered in 2021
- A321NEO deliveries will not start until 2022
- Big defferal on A220s pushed to out years, only taking 8 A221/3's in 2021
- One incremental A339 added, to be leased in 2021
- New deliveries in 2021, 2022, 2023 effectively half of pre-COVID planned deliveries


https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... ex99-1.htm

Here in the Skywest sec filing it states they did not terminate the pro rate flying.
Last edited by Oliver2020 on Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8683
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:06 pm

This is my complete wild and crazy guess (I'm not even suggesting this is true or even feasilbe), that if demand skyrockets going into 2022, DL "unretires" or re-leases 717 that have come off lease in 2020/2021. Make a deal with to lease an orphan fleet type that no one wants, nor anyone else is really interested in flying.
No one yet though has ever really explains the deal with the seat AD that supposedly is coming due in 2022......
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8683
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:08 pm

Correct...Skywest still has CR2 EAS flying for DL that is under pro-rate/at-risk but in 2020 they ended all non-EAS CR2 flying that was under either capacity purchase or at-risk / pro-rate agreements.
There was some non-EAS pro-rate CR2 flying done by Skywest out of DTW & MSP that is now being flown by Endeavor. There are a sub-set of CR2s that were previously flown by OO that are now transitioning over to 9E.

Markets like ERI, SCE, AVP, ABE and a handful of others, OO was flying pro-rate but they aren't EAS subsidied. With a fraction of demand they weren't economical for OO to fly at-risk and per contract they could end it. DL saw value in keep flying in some of these markets (not all as ERI and AVP were suspended) but others they swapped in 9E flying.
 
Oliver2020
Posts: 223
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:39 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:20 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Correct...Skywest still has CR2 EAS flying for DL that is under pro-rate/at-risk but in 2020 they ended all non-EAS CR2 flying that was under either capacity purchase or at-risk / pro-rate agreements.
There was some non-EAS pro-rate CR2 flying done by Skywest out of DTW & MSP that is now being flown by Endeavor. There are a sub-set of CR2s that were previously flown by OO that are now transitioning over to 9E.

Markets like ERI, SCE, AVP, ABE and a handful of others, OO was flying pro-rate but they aren't EAS subsidied. With a fraction of demand they weren't economical for OO to fly at-risk and per contract they could end it. DL saw value in keep flying in some of these markets (not all as ERI and AVP were suspended) but others they swapped in 9E flying.


My apologies I misread your post, I thought you said they cancelled all Skywest flying eas/prorate flying.
As of December 31,2020 Skywest listed 26 under the Delta agreement but as we know that number may have decreased as that
agreement is Terminable with a 30 day notice.
 
n9801f
Posts: 300
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:31 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Are you kidding? DL’s ATL hub continues to be the largest airline hub on earth.

Not at all!

And Eastern was once one of the largest airlines on earth.


SESGDL wrote:
If ATL is suddenly in jeopardy from ULCCs than every other US airline hub is in big trouble.

Don't misunderstand. What ATL is "in big trouble" of is not extinction, but relentless erosion of profits in large local markets that are probably a big chunk of ATL's profitability.

Yes, the hubs in ORD, DFW, IAH, etc.also have this problem. But their profitability already reflects this.

With recent LCC growth ATL is finally joining this club and its profitability could deteriorate to these levels, too.


SESGDL wrote:
You listing 60+ cities being served is misleading; does stuff like F9 offering twice weekly flights to “alternate” airports count in that total?

It's unwise to ignore the competition.

But the number is still 50+ if you ignore Frontier.

And the number is 44 if you only count Southwest, which business travelers (when they're flying) sometimes gripe about but will fly.

Your dismissive comments about LCC competition sound exactly like the approach old Delta took toward AirTran. Perhaps Delta huffed and puffed indignantly but it didn't do much to compete, and before you know it there was a HUGE LCC hub in ATL. ATL must not have been as profitable then as it seems to be today because about that time, Delta went into bankruptcy. Not just because of this LCC competition, but it certainly didn't help.

The point is just that you ignore the competition at your peril.

Recent LCC growth at ATL will degrade Delta's profitability from previous levels. And a complacent attitude toward competing would just worsen things. I hope Delta decides to compete aggressively as that gives customers choices, preserves jobs, and benefits shareholders.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 5:53 pm

NK & F9 are not a meaningful threat to DL in ATL. If anything they are a net benefit to the local market as they offer service at a price point that promotes additional discressionary travel and/or gets people to fly versus drive. DL is not meaningfully price-match much in this category. They offer some Basic Economy fares but historically have not really attempted to go after this segment.

WN is the only one that has enough scale and/or enough ability to influence the price on some routes, if they choose to do so, but they really don't.
 
n9801f
Posts: 300
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:03 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
NK & F9 are not a meaningful threat to DL in ATL. If anything they are a net benefit to the local market as they offer service at a price point that promotes additional discressionary travel and/or gets people to fly versus drive. DL is not meaningfully price-match much in this category. They offer some Basic Economy fares but historically have not really attempted to go after this segment.

WN is the only one that has enough scale and/or enough ability to influence the price on some routes, if they choose to do so, but they really don't.


Just take a look at AA in MIA. Apparently it was once very profitable. But schedule changes suggest it's declined in recent years. I suspect you'd see a strong correlation between AA's profit decrease at MIA and NK's growth at FLL.

AA and NK position themselves very differently. But market segmentation isn't perfect, and MIA today doesn't seem to be what it once was.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:16 pm

n9801f wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
NK & F9 are not a meaningful threat to DL in ATL. If anything they are a net benefit to the local market as they offer service at a price point that promotes additional discressionary travel and/or gets people to fly versus drive. DL is not meaningfully price-match much in this category. They offer some Basic Economy fares but historically have not really attempted to go after this segment.

WN is the only one that has enough scale and/or enough ability to influence the price on some routes, if they choose to do so, but they really don't.


Just take a look at AA in MIA. Apparently it was once very profitable. But schedule changes suggest it's declined in recent years. I suspect you'd see a strong correlation between AA's profit decrease at MIA and NK's growth at FLL.

AA and NK position themselves very differently. But market segmentation isn't perfect, and MIA today doesn't seem to be what it once was.


You obviously have no idea how strong of a hub ATL is. Comparing it to AA at MIA is a joke.
 
N649DL
Posts: 1114
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:26 pm

deltairlines wrote:
bcbhokie wrote:
deltairlines wrote:

The thing with AUS is that there's a ton of loyal AA flyers in that market. It's not much of an inconvenience for people to take a 45 minute flight up to DFW running every hour and then can go pretty much anywhere in the world.

For Delta, their presence in AUS historically has been limited. If all your travel was basically outside of an 800 mile radius of AUS, then you could make Delta work with flights to ATL/SLC/DTW/MSP/NYC/LAX. But if you needed to travel inside that radius, then Delta wouldn't be the carrier for you, which strikes down a very sizeable part of the traveling public. Even as Delta worked to build up Austin pre-pandemic, it still had a huge hole inside that 800 mile radius - a space that AA, UA and WN all easily play within.


I think this is precisely the opportunity DL saw pre-pandemic. By building up AUS with a few key point-to-point longer haul flights, then adding targeted direct flights within that 800-mile radius, they could help plug the Texas-sized hole in their network and go after one of the most affluent growing markets in the country.

Success for Delta in Austin doesn't mean defeating AA and WN - it just means carving out a 20-30% sized niche for themselves and enabling them to go after high value business travel to and from the area. They were already making investments toward this, like the gleaming new Sky Club at AUS, and I expect this to largely resume post-pandemic.


The other issue that Delta faces at AUS in terms of running a focus city that could support that type of operation is gates. Even with the recent expansion, AUS is bursting at the seams. Delta has four gates in AUS (7-10) and it looks like they can use some of the common use gates as available (they ran a SLC out of 3 today and a LAX out of 5). Still - when it comes to flights inside that radius, there's only so much you can do with four gates - once a normal operation gets back, four gates alone will handle basically service to the hubs (figure 8x ATL, 4x DTW/SLC/MSP/LAX, 3x JFK, 2x SEA, 1x BOS, 1x RDU in Summer 2022 - that's 27 flights a day). Now you want to add flights inside the 800 mile radius - to do so at convenient business times, you'd have to find more gates or chop flights to hubs. Otherwise, you fly to those other cities at more off-peak times - but odds are Southwest at least has flights to those same cities in a more optimal time channel.


I thought AUS gates were mostly common use? I could be completely wrong but there was total lack of branding at the gates when I lived there last year. Should they be common use, it's not like there are no gates which don't have any downtime at all. AUS always seemed pretty dead in the mid-late Afternoon, enough for DL to bank a Focus City there. However it all seems like fluff by DL. They didn't add anything other than frequencies to the hubs when I lived there (I'm back in LAX now) but I always found the announcement to be pretty bizarre for DL to release a new Focus City and then not do anything as a result.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11501
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:30 pm

N649DL wrote:
deltairlines wrote:
bcbhokie wrote:

I think this is precisely the opportunity DL saw pre-pandemic. By building up AUS with a few key point-to-point longer haul flights, then adding targeted direct flights within that 800-mile radius, they could help plug the Texas-sized hole in their network and go after one of the most affluent growing markets in the country.

Success for Delta in Austin doesn't mean defeating AA and WN - it just means carving out a 20-30% sized niche for themselves and enabling them to go after high value business travel to and from the area. They were already making investments toward this, like the gleaming new Sky Club at AUS, and I expect this to largely resume post-pandemic.


The other issue that Delta faces at AUS in terms of running a focus city that could support that type of operation is gates. Even with the recent expansion, AUS is bursting at the seams. Delta has four gates in AUS (7-10) and it looks like they can use some of the common use gates as available (they ran a SLC out of 3 today and a LAX out of 5). Still - when it comes to flights inside that radius, there's only so much you can do with four gates - once a normal operation gets back, four gates alone will handle basically service to the hubs (figure 8x ATL, 4x DTW/SLC/MSP/LAX, 3x JFK, 2x SEA, 1x BOS, 1x RDU in Summer 2022 - that's 27 flights a day). Now you want to add flights inside the 800 mile radius - to do so at convenient business times, you'd have to find more gates or chop flights to hubs. Otherwise, you fly to those other cities at more off-peak times - but odds are Southwest at least has flights to those same cities in a more optimal time channel.


I thought AUS gates were mostly common use? I could be completely wrong but there was total lack of branding at the gates when I lived there last year. Should they be common use, it's not like there are no gates which don't have any downtime at all. AUS always seemed pretty dead in the mid-late Afternoon, enough for DL to bank a Focus City there. However it all seems like fluff by DL. They didn't add anything other than frequencies to the hubs when I lived there (I'm back in LAX now) but I always found the announcement to be pretty bizarre for DL to release a new Focus City and then not do anything as a result.

Those are typically dead times for a reason. There is no reason to build up a large bank if it is at a time most people are not interested in flying.
 
n9801f
Posts: 300
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
You obviously have no idea how strong of a hub ATL is. Comparing it to AA at MIA is a joke.

Strong, yes. Invincible, no.

ATL is hardly impervious to the effects of LCC competition. In fact, it's a ripe hunting ground for them because ATL customers have had limited competition.

If you scoff at this argument, just look at what happened when Delta left an opening for AirTran to build a huge hub, and the effect that had on Delta.

The airline industry is littered with examples of airlines unaccustomed to competition clinging unsuccessfully to monopolist strategies. Ignore them at your peril.

I think the mindset behind your comment speaks to a bigger issue: maybe Delta is better at playing offense than defense. But if you get so distracted with growth ambitions out West that you forget to mind business back at home, taking your future success for granted, you might come home a surprise.

"Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:12 pm

DL's ATL strategy is pretty clear - own the local O&D and operate mega-hub that predominately carried omni-directional traffic flows using large narrowbody aircraft. ATL is (was Pre-COVID) essentially max'ed out on gate space during peak times. DL has been actively upgauging as much as possible to run as much traffic as possible domestically on B739/A321/B752/B753 aircraft as possible with have optimal CASMs to both compete with ULCC/LCC were appropriate and also offer premium cabins that command a yield premium. Pre-COVID, DL was getting people willing to pay (both with their money, and OPM / business) more to fly DL based on real and perceived value.

There was an opening at the time, now almost 2 decades ago in ATL for AirTran because DL was all over the place. There was a vacuum in the local market dating back a bit to once Eastern collapsed. DL reallocating resources back out of DFW & CVG and now to some extent some of the stuff out of the PMNW network, to grow ATL into a mega-hub.

I'm just not sure what you are arguing, but there absolutely zero indication DL is ignoring ATL.

I think all this talk about growing out west is way over-hyped on A.net. The fact is DL's footprint out west is so much smaller than its footprint in the Eastern half of this country, it doesn't divert a huge amount of resources to "grow" out west.

I think a big piece of the "growth out west strategy" is really based on:
1) Using the A221/A223s to replace 2-Class RJs were appropriate out of SEA, SLC, LAX and freeing up those resources to go back East and backfill the CR2 & 717 retirements
2) Upgauging B738 & A319/A320 routes to B739/A321s

Pre-Covid, there was just a lot of routes flown on the mountain west and coast with CR9, E75, 717, A319 sized aircraft that in theory could be easily upgauged to increase capacity.
The way the SEA & SLC hubs are set-up and were banked (pre-COVID) doesn't really lend themselves to adding a lot more in the way of frequency, but does lend itself to a lot of potential upgauging opportunities.

There is not a lot of net-new growth "out-west" that isn't long-and-thin flying. There are a bunch of "connect-the-dots" / hub overflying stuff to SLC that could be added once demand fully recovers and the new terminal is fully built out, but again I think these growth aspirations are being may over-hyped and over-analyzed.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2968
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Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:21 pm

n9801f wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Are you kidding? DL’s ATL hub continues to be the largest airline hub on earth.

Not at all!

And Eastern was once one of the largest airlines on earth.


SESGDL wrote:
If ATL is suddenly in jeopardy from ULCCs than every other US airline hub is in big trouble.

Don't misunderstand. What ATL is "in big trouble" of is not extinction, but relentless erosion of profits in large local markets that are probably a big chunk of ATL's profitability.

Yes, the hubs in ORD, DFW, IAH, etc.also have this problem. But their profitability already reflects this.

With recent LCC growth ATL is finally joining this club and its profitability could deteriorate to these levels, too.


SESGDL wrote:
You listing 60+ cities being served is misleading; does stuff like F9 offering twice weekly flights to “alternate” airports count in that total?

It's unwise to ignore the competition.

But the number is still 50+ if you ignore Frontier.

And the number is 44 if you only count Southwest, which business travelers (when they're flying) sometimes gripe about but will fly.

Your dismissive comments about LCC competition sound exactly like the approach old Delta took toward AirTran. Perhaps Delta huffed and puffed indignantly but it didn't do much to compete, and before you know it there was a HUGE LCC hub in ATL. ATL must not have been as profitable then as it seems to be today because about that time, Delta went into bankruptcy. Not just because of this LCC competition, but it certainly didn't help.

The point is just that you ignore the competition at your peril.

Recent LCC growth at ATL will degrade Delta's profitability from previous levels. And a complacent attitude toward competing would just worsen things. I hope Delta decides to compete aggressively as that gives customers choices, preserves jobs, and benefits shareholders.


Sorry, still don't agree with you. FL ran an operation nearly three times what WN is currently running at ATL with much lower costs and DL did just fine, with a much smaller operation (DL was running around 600 mainline daily at ATL at FL's peak size, verses nearly 850 daily mainline at pre-Covid peak). DL at ATL has economies of scale that other airlines are simply unable to compete with. Look at any city pair from ATL and DL is the marketshare leader, even to other airline fortress hubs. There's a reason that pre-Covid DL's ATL hub was nearly the size of AA's DFW and ORD hubs combined by seat capacity. Running 120,000 daily seats at extremely low costs and with large aircraft means that nearly every sizeable city in the country has enough demand to run mainline service at a cost that can be spread out. Let's not forget that ATL is also one of lowest cost hubs. Until WN or any other carrier can match DL's scale at ATL (which they definitely won't), ATL will remain unchallenged and unchallengeable for marketshare. You should be more concerned with AA's hub at CLT, which is a mere clone of ATL with a 3rd of the O&D.

Jeremy
 
tphuang
Posts: 6156
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:32 pm

I'm quite clearly not a DL fanboy. But it's fairly clear to me that ATL is the golden standard for hubs. What AA is doing at DFW is attempting to build something as powerful as ATL. ATL is the envy of every airline.

As for growing out of west. I think that's pretty clear a point of emphasis.
It's not a secret that SLC is already larger than pre-COVID capacity and has a lot more growth coming with the new terminal.
It's not a secret that they devoted a lot of resources to finishing their LAX terminal project and have brought back capacity there faster than any of its competitors. Of all their stations, LAX probably saw the most new routes or frequency additions that I can recall.
And if you look at station performance during COVID time, DL brought back a lot of capacity at SEA despite having some of the lowest LFs in their system. And now, it has far and away the largest increase in mainline base there. DL is very committed to grow SEA.

This is not just upgauging. If the fleet is shrinking, then having more mainline vs pre-COVID at SEA/LAX/SLC will mean fewer mainline aircraft available elsewhere.

None of this is to say ATL or NYC will be ignored. But there is real planned growth in west part of the country and that will most likely come from BOS/RDU/CVG and/or slower return to pre-COVID size at DTW/MSP.

It's hard for me to imagine DL network will not look a little diffe
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 138
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:57 pm

n9801f wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
The problem with Delta is how old their fleet is. So many old 320, 757, 767 etc. that need to be replaced. And that needs money and debt.

AA is pretty much done with its fleet renewal.


Yes, Delta's fleet is older than American's.

Even if each airline takes 200 deliveries, as noted by jbs2886, American will still have a younger fleet.

Delta has not yet retired its elderly 757 and 767 fleets, which American has.

While Delta doubtless saves on ownership costs, it has higher maintenance and fuel costs with older planes.

If customers prefer newer planes, and not just newer interiors and older planes, their odds of getting this are higher on American.


Most of AA's 752's at the time of retirement were the same age as their current 772's (1999-2002). It was more of a fleet simplification move on AA's part due to the much smaller number of 757/767's remaining in their fleet compared to Delta. The fleet age was certainly not the only factor as you claim.

DL also some of the latest 757's off the line as well (2004).
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8683
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:10 pm

I do tend to agree with in the sense that DTW & MSP are going to be increasingly more reliant and built upon 2-class RJs to maintain the balance of frequency and capacity.

I'll use DTW as an example since, obviously the one I follow closest (and where I live). Please don't shoot the messenger just because I speak of DTW, I try to maintain some levity versus some of the other DTW-homers/fanboys on a.net....

DTW 2014 2018 2019 3/2021
ERJ 37 0 0 0
CR2 172 93 86 47
CR7 43 64 52 16
E70 1 6 6 11
E75 11 4 0 40
CR9 45 90 113 56
717 18 44 33 6
221 0 0 7 9
73G 0 0 0 0
319 39 21 28 8
223 0 0 0 1
M88 28 0 0 0
M90 13 21 0 0
320 21 14 24 2
738 10 12 2 1
739 9 32 28 28
321 0 11 38 48
752 19 20 21 6
753 1 7 6 7
763 8 3 6 1
764 2 0 1 0
332 0 2 2 0
333 4 4 3 0
339 0 0 0 0
772 3 0 0 0
77L 3 0 0 0
359 0 5 5 3
744 2 0 0 0
TOTAL 489 453 461 290

DL is at 290 flights a day, with no meaningful amount of TPAC, TATL, or business travel.
Basically its primarily domestic leisure / VFR connections and O&D.
Next month, with middle seats opening up will increase capacity, and there a handful of some additional routes coming back like PDX.
Some of the other routes like SJC, SNA, SMF are cancelled through September.

DL is planning to restore the core of its TPAC and TATL traffic from DTW when the pandemic subsides and that is resultant on both O&D and more connections.
There are numerous city pairs that will see frequencies/flights/traffic return as demand increases.
DL is only flying LGA, BOS, DCA at 3x day currently, that will most certainty get back up to 6+ day in the future.

I suspect DL will approach 330-350 flight/day at DTW in Summer 2021 and probably settle in to the low-400s in Summer 2022.
Still a bit down from 450+ pre-COVID and I suspect there will be gauge changes.
I suspect more 2-class RJ and less small/medium NB flying than Pre-COVID
The DTW hub right now really operates in 3 banks. Pre-COVID it was ~5 banks and a lot of the midday & late afternoon flights were used to feed connections to/from TPAC and TATL flying.
I suspect some that will return once more TPAC and TATL flying is restored.

I suspect MSP will end-up being fairly similar, but the hub will still effectively operate the same.

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