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n9801f
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:23 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I'm just not sure what you are arguing, but there absolutely zero indication DL is ignoring ATL.

1) Recent LCC growth will degrade ATL profitability from prior levels

2) Previous strategic elements such as the following will become harder to maintain:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

own the local O&D…

…DL was getting people willing to pay… …more to fly DL

Because lower fares on the competition will make it hard for Delta to “own” (your word) the local O&D, and

As competition expands, it will become harder for Delta to find people willing to pay extra.


Yes, Delta has impressive, real productivity cost efficiencies in ATL. This is a competitive asset.

However despite these efficiencies, Delta’s CASM remains well above that of its competitors (2019):

    Delta 14.7 cents
    Southwest 12.4
    Spirit 8.0
    Frontier 7.8


Comments on this thread focus on smaller offensives like focus cities, and some comments suggest low competitive urgency about the changes in ATL:

SESGDL wrote:
ATL will remain unchallenged and unchallengeable for marketshare

Underscoring that there may be a need for more awareness of playing defense too.


SESGDL wrote:
Sorry, still don't agree with you.

That’s OK!

Future earnings will tell the story.
 
MLIAA
Posts: 342
Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 11:08 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:25 pm

n9801f wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
NK & F9 are not a meaningful threat to DL in ATL. If anything they are a net benefit to the local market as they offer service at a price point that promotes additional discressionary travel and/or gets people to fly versus drive. DL is not meaningfully price-match much in this category. They offer some Basic Economy fares but historically have not really attempted to go after this segment.

WN is the only one that has enough scale and/or enough ability to influence the price on some routes, if they choose to do so, but they really don't.


Just take a look at AA in MIA. Apparently it was once very profitable. But schedule changes suggest it's declined in recent years. I suspect you'd see a strong correlation between AA's profit decrease at MIA and NK's growth at FLL.

AA and NK position themselves very differently. But market segmentation isn't perfect, and MIA today doesn't seem to be what it once was.


AA still has a wildly successful and profitable hub at MIA. Many airlines would kill to have what AA has at MIA, including DL.

FLL has always had low cost competition for AA, be it in the form of JetBlue or Southwest or Allegiant or now Spirit. None of them ever have or ever will have the powerhouse Caribbean/Latin American depth that AA does in MIA.

Anyway, Delta’s Atlanta Death Star is the belle of the ball, I agree it’s the model hub and AA is trying to build its own version at DFW.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9108
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:36 pm

So.....if I were brand new to a.net reading this thread and didn't know anything about DL I should infer the following:

- DL needs to close-up MSP
- DL is in a dire position in ATL
- DL needs to desperately make "deep cuts" CVG so it can grow out west
- DL is betting the farm on a focus city in AUS
- DL is going to have "huge growth"...."out west".

...checks notes....got it.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 3067
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:44 pm

MLIAA wrote:
n9801f wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
NK & F9 are not a meaningful threat to DL in ATL. If anything they are a net benefit to the local market as they offer service at a price point that promotes additional discressionary travel and/or gets people to fly versus drive. DL is not meaningfully price-match much in this category. They offer some Basic Economy fares but historically have not really attempted to go after this segment.

WN is the only one that has enough scale and/or enough ability to influence the price on some routes, if they choose to do so, but they really don't.


Just take a look at AA in MIA. Apparently it was once very profitable. But schedule changes suggest it's declined in recent years. I suspect you'd see a strong correlation between AA's profit decrease at MIA and NK's growth at FLL.

AA and NK position themselves very differently. But market segmentation isn't perfect, and MIA today doesn't seem to be what it once was.


AA still has a wildly successful and profitable hub at MIA. Many airlines would kill to have what AA has at MIA, including DL.

FLL has always had low cost competition for AA, be it in the form of JetBlue or Southwest or Allegiant or now Spirit. None of them ever have or ever will have the powerhouse Caribbean/Latin American depth that AA does in MIA.

Anyway, Delta’s Atlanta Death Star is the belle of the ball, I agree it’s the model hub and AA is trying to build its own version at DFW.


AA's MIA hub has faced significant challenges over the past few years, most notably increased competition. When AA has publicly discussed hub profitably, MIA has been towards the bottom from a margins perspective. Costs of running such a massive international hub in such an expensive and highly sought after market are extremely high. The darlings of AA's network are DFW, CLT and DCA, probably in that order - all of this being pre-Covid, of course.

Not surprisingly, the most lucrative markets for airlines have been those with a sizable O&D mix that they can dominate heartily, usually with the largest equipment and numerous frequencies: ATL, DFW, CLT, DEN, etc.

Jeremy
 
SESGDL
Posts: 3067
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:49 pm

n9801f wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I'm just not sure what you are arguing, but there absolutely zero indication DL is ignoring ATL.

1) Recent LCC growth will degrade ATL profitability from prior levels

2) Previous strategic elements such as the following will become harder to maintain:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

own the local O&D…

…DL was getting people willing to pay… …more to fly DL

Because lower fares on the competition will make it hard for Delta to “own” (your word) the local O&D, and

As competition expands, it will become harder for Delta to find people willing to pay extra.


Yes, Delta has impressive, real productivity cost efficiencies in ATL. This is a competitive asset.

However despite these efficiencies, Delta’s CASM remains well above that of its competitors (2019):

    Delta 14.7 cents
    Southwest 12.4
    Spirit 8.0
    Frontier 7.8


Comments on this thread focus on smaller offensives like focus cities, and some comments suggest low competitive urgency about the changes in ATL:


This was the case when DL was making record profits. Not seeing the point here, I guess... DL's costs pre-covid were considerably higher than the LCC competition and post-covid will be considerably higher. Still unclear as to how that showcases the challenges that DL will face at ATL. I would say, for all airlines, I think DL's ATL hub is one of the strongest and least likely to be impacted by increased competition. It's simply too massive to be challenged. Everything you've said in this thread also applies to other legacy hubs, almost none of which are as large and dominated by their main carriers. Why are you singling out ATL here? I notice your continued ignoring of my similar comments regarding AA's DFW and CLT hubs facing the same challenges; I wonder why that is... :roll:

Jeremy
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9108
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:54 pm

If UA can make DEN work in the face of the massive amount of competition they face with WN & F9 plus multiple ULCC/LCC in every major market, I don't see how DL can't make ATL work when they are in far more commanding position.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6872
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:54 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
So.....if I were brand new to a.net reading this thread and didn't know anything about DL I should infer the following:

- DL needs to close-up MSP
- DL is in a dire position in ATL
- DL needs to desperately make "deep cuts" CVG so it can grow out west
- DL is betting the farm on a focus city in AUS
- DL is going to have "huge growth"...."out west".

...checks notes....got it.


Do you want to bet they are not going to have growth in the west? What's your proof that it's not going to happen? Have you looked at how fast they are bringing back each of their stations?

I'm willing to bet 2 years from now, SEA/LAX/SLC will represent a large portion of DL capacity than pre-COVID.
Last edited by tphuang on Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
n9801f
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:32 pm

SESGDL wrote:
Why are you singling out ATL here? I notice your continued ignoring of my similar comments regarding AA's DFW and CLT hubs facing the same challenges; I wonder why that is... :roll:

Because (aside from AirTran's temporary presence) intense LCC competition is decades newer in ATL than it is in other legacy hubs.

LCC's have grown recently in ATL - there's been a change in the nature of LCC competition - and I think ATL's at a tipping point.

Frontier just added a number of routes from ATL.

Spirit's been growing steadily and is even going up to 3 ATL-DTW flights.

But perhaps more importantly, Southwest refined its ATL network and one by one quietly tiptoed into many Delta regional strongholds like BNA, MEM, JAN, GSP, etc. None of these changes seemed big by itself, but looking back at the total effect it's really big today.

So although ATL has seen the tip of the LCC iceberg for a while (Spirit skimming top ODs, Southwest struggling to figure out its ATL network) today ATL can finally see the whole iceberg.

ORD, by comparison has faced the whole iceberg for 20+ years (Southwest and others in MDW). And DFW 40 years (DAL), DEN, etc.

So ATL is at the beginning of the transition from "a little competition" to "a lotta competition". While the other hubs already adjusted to this decades ago.

As for CLT, the level of LCC/ULCC competition is far lower than that at ATL. It's still looking at the very tip of the iceberg.

What remains to be seen is how effective Delta's response to this change will be.
 
N649DL
Posts: 1228
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:21 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:28 am

Polot wrote:
N649DL wrote:
deltairlines wrote:

The other issue that Delta faces at AUS in terms of running a focus city that could support that type of operation is gates. Even with the recent expansion, AUS is bursting at the seams. Delta has four gates in AUS (7-10) and it looks like they can use some of the common use gates as available (they ran a SLC out of 3 today and a LAX out of 5). Still - when it comes to flights inside that radius, there's only so much you can do with four gates - once a normal operation gets back, four gates alone will handle basically service to the hubs (figure 8x ATL, 4x DTW/SLC/MSP/LAX, 3x JFK, 2x SEA, 1x BOS, 1x RDU in Summer 2022 - that's 27 flights a day). Now you want to add flights inside the 800 mile radius - to do so at convenient business times, you'd have to find more gates or chop flights to hubs. Otherwise, you fly to those other cities at more off-peak times - but odds are Southwest at least has flights to those same cities in a more optimal time channel.


I thought AUS gates were mostly common use? I could be completely wrong but there was total lack of branding at the gates when I lived there last year. Should they be common use, it's not like there are no gates which don't have any downtime at all. AUS always seemed pretty dead in the mid-late Afternoon, enough for DL to bank a Focus City there. However it all seems like fluff by DL. They didn't add anything other than frequencies to the hubs when I lived there (I'm back in LAX now) but I always found the announcement to be pretty bizarre for DL to release a new Focus City and then not do anything as a result.

Those are typically dead times for a reason. There is no reason to build up a large bank if it is at a time most people are not interested in flying.


No, any airline could force it. It's a practical time to run a bank as business meetings wrap up for the day around then. AUS is surprisingly dead in the late-Afternoon for it being such a large Tech City (and this was before the pandemic). Not sure as to why.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9108
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 2:33 am

Look, I wasn't trying to be a jerk earlier and yes there was a bit of hyperbole.

The reality is that while there is an increase in ULCC/LCCs into ATL, the bigger threat to DL's business model is if they are unable to command a yield premium.
Not just in ATL, but across the network.
Passengers are willing to pay more for some combination of the following:
Schedule, overall experience, brand consistency, in-flight product, IFE, Skyclubs , operational reliability, Skymiles, AMEX credit cards, Elite status, Comfort +, First Class/D1.

If DL maintains these product/service/ammenities then people are still likely to pay a premium for a brand/product that perceive is worth the value.

The challenges are such
- if business travel recovers far less than expected and they don't get those passengers willing to pay a premium
- if they dilute their product to where others don't pay
- they can't recover the lost revenue made from "change fees"

The ULCC/LCC service at ATL (and at DTW & MSP) is targeting a passenger segment that historically DL has generally ignored and been okay with spilling to other airlines.
It is what it is.

Yes I do think DTW & MSP will probably end-up being ~50 flights/day less than pre-COVID. ATL will probably be 50-100 flights less at least through Summer 2022.
I think DL's biggest challenge, but they won't admit it yet, in the near-term is NYC. Its very unclear how quickly LGA & JFK start to recover and to what extent over the next 2-3 years.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4393
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:50 pm

n9801f wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Why are you singling out ATL here? I notice your continued ignoring of my similar comments regarding AA's DFW and CLT hubs facing the same challenges; I wonder why that is... :roll:

Because (aside from AirTran's temporary presence) intense LCC competition is decades newer in ATL than it is in other legacy hubs.

LCC's have grown recently in ATL - there's been a change in the nature of LCC competition - and I think ATL's at a tipping point.

Frontier just added a number of routes from ATL.

Spirit's been growing steadily and is even going up to 3 ATL-DTW flights.

But perhaps more importantly, Southwest refined its ATL network and one by one quietly tiptoed into many Delta regional strongholds like BNA, MEM, JAN, GSP, etc. None of these changes seemed big by itself, but looking back at the total effect it's really big today.

So although ATL has seen the tip of the LCC iceberg for a while (Spirit skimming top ODs, Southwest struggling to figure out its ATL network) today ATL can finally see the whole iceberg.

ORD, by comparison has faced the whole iceberg for 20+ years (Southwest and others in MDW). And DFW 40 years (DAL), DEN, etc.

So ATL is at the beginning of the transition from "a little competition" to "a lotta competition". While the other hubs already adjusted to this decades ago.

As for CLT, the level of LCC/ULCC competition is far lower than that at ATL. It's still looking at the very tip of the iceberg.

What remains to be seen is how effective Delta's response to this change will be.


AirTran was a "temporary presence"?
They ran a hub in ATL for 23 years. That is hardly temporary.
DL knows how to deal with low-cost competition, it is not a new thing in ATL.
 
WA707atMSP
Posts: 2140
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:16 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:21 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Look, I wasn't trying to be a jerk earlier and yes there was a bit of hyperbole.

The reality is that while there is an increase in ULCC/LCCs into ATL, the bigger threat to DL's business model is if they are unable to command a yield premium.
Not just in ATL, but across the network.
Passengers are willing to pay more for some combination of the following:
Schedule, overall experience, brand consistency, in-flight product, IFE, Skyclubs , operational reliability, Skymiles, AMEX credit cards, Elite status, Comfort +, First Class/D1.

If DL maintains these product/service/ammenities then people are still likely to pay a premium for a brand/product that perceive is worth the value.

The challenges are such
- if business travel recovers far less than expected and they don't get those passengers willing to pay a premium
- if they dilute their product to where others don't pay
- they can't recover the lost revenue made from "change fees"

The ULCC/LCC service at ATL (and at DTW & MSP) is targeting a passenger segment that historically DL has generally ignored and been okay with spilling to other airlines.
It is what it is.

Yes I do think DTW & MSP will probably end-up being ~50 flights/day less than pre-COVID. ATL will probably be 50-100 flights less at least through Summer 2022.
I think DL's biggest challenge, but they won't admit it yet, in the near-term is NYC. Its very unclear how quickly LGA & JFK start to recover and to what extent over the next 2-3 years.


I agree 100% with this analysis, and I also think that, as wealthy people continue to leave NYC for tax and public safety reasons, the number of DL flights at LGA / JFK is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least 3-5 years.

I think DL's 2nd biggest challenge is SEA, where the AA+AS partnership, and AS's entry into One World, means passengers in Seattle have a viable alternative to DL for both their domestic (AS) and overseas (AS' One World partners) flying, for the first time since DL's buildup.
 
n9801f
Posts: 505
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:31 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
AirTran was a "temporary presence"?
They ran a hub in ATL for 23 years. That is hardly temporary.
DL knows how to deal with low-cost competition, it is not a new thing in ATL.

AirTran was a tiny Florida company in the early -90's, and ValuJet was grounded for several years in the late -90's. AirTran didn't emerge as a big, successful ATL player until 1999+ when the brilliant Leonard/Fornaro team took over.

Delta left a big opening and AirTran thrived and grew rapidly in ATL from 2000-2011. This heyday is the temporary presence.

After Southwest bought AirTran, the heat on Delta eased. ATL flights shrank from around 200 to more like 100. Many routes were dropped.

But the heat's now coming back on. Delta needs to compete effectively. If it responds with denial it could lose a lot of its base. This is what has already happened in ORD (MDW), DFW (DAL), MIA (FLL) etc.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6872
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:42 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
I agree 100% with this analysis, and I also think that, as wealthy people continue to leave NYC for tax and public safety reasons, the number of DL flights at LGA / JFK is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least 3-5 years.

I think DL's 2nd biggest challenge is SEA, where the AA+AS partnership, and AS's entry into One World, means passengers in Seattle have a viable alternative to DL for both their domestic (AS) and overseas (AS' One World partners) flying, for the first time since DL's buildup.


NYC is still a very safe city. DL will need to ramp up its LGA/JFK flights if it wishes to keep its slots. Maybe they and B6/AA can lobby DOT to keep slot waiver going for the winter season, but I don't see how it will continue into next summer. So, one would have to assume that DL will ramp up from about 200 departures they are operating right now between JFK & LGA to over 400 departures a day by next Q2. So about 200 additional departures

One would also have to assume that as they dramatically expand their SEA mainline base, they are planning to operate at least close to pre-COVID number of flights by next summer in order to keep up their gate battle with AS. That would require a growth of 50+ departures a day.

We'd probably have to double NYC/SEA numbers to count both departures and arrivals.

If we assume that they will add 500 to 700 flights a day from now till next summer. There really isn't much left to be spread among other hubs/focus cities. I wouldn't be surprised if RJ flights that are operating now out of RDU/CVG get pulled to support their LGA operation.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14636
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:50 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Look, I wasn't trying to be a jerk earlier and yes there was a bit of hyperbole.

The reality is that while there is an increase in ULCC/LCCs into ATL, the bigger threat to DL's business model is if they are unable to command a yield premium.
Not just in ATL, but across the network.
Passengers are willing to pay more for some combination of the following:
Schedule, overall experience, brand consistency, in-flight product, IFE, Skyclubs , operational reliability, Skymiles, AMEX credit cards, Elite status, Comfort +, First Class/D1.

If DL maintains these product/service/ammenities then people are still likely to pay a premium for a brand/product that perceive is worth the value.

The challenges are such
- if business travel recovers far less than expected and they don't get those passengers willing to pay a premium
- if they dilute their product to where others don't pay
- they can't recover the lost revenue made from "change fees"

The ULCC/LCC service at ATL (and at DTW & MSP) is targeting a passenger segment that historically DL has generally ignored and been okay with spilling to other airlines.
It is what it is.

Yes I do think DTW & MSP will probably end-up being ~50 flights/day less than pre-COVID. ATL will probably be 50-100 flights less at least through Summer 2022.
I think DL's biggest challenge, but they won't admit it yet, in the near-term is NYC. Its very unclear how quickly LGA & JFK start to recover and to what extent over the next 2-3 years.


I agree 100% with this analysis, and I also think that, as wealthy people continue to leave NYC for tax and public safety reasons, the number of DL flights at LGA / JFK is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least 3-5 years.

I think DL's 2nd biggest challenge is SEA, where the AA+AS partnership, and AS's entry into One World, means passengers in Seattle have a viable alternative to DL for both their domestic (AS) and overseas (AS' One World partners) flying, for the first time since DL's buildup.


People fleeing NYC are going to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island and Westchester.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4393
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:53 pm

n9801f wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
AirTran was a "temporary presence"?
They ran a hub in ATL for 23 years. That is hardly temporary.
DL knows how to deal with low-cost competition, it is not a new thing in ATL.

AirTran was a tiny Florida company in the early -90's, and ValuJet was grounded for several years in the late -90's. AirTran didn't emerge as a big, successful ATL player until 1999+ when the brilliant Leonard/Fornaro team took over.

Delta left a big opening and AirTran thrived and grew rapidly in ATL from 2000-2011. This heyday is the temporary presence.

After Southwest bought AirTran, the heat on Delta eased. ATL flights shrank from around 200 to more like 100. Many routes were dropped.

But the heat's now coming back on. Delta needs to compete effectively. If it responds with denial it could lose a lot of its base. This is what has already happened in ORD (MDW), DFW (DAL), MIA (FLL) etc.


Valujet was not grounded for years, they were grounded for four months. When they returned, they did have a reduced schedule from ATL but it was still over 75 flights a day. Plenty of competition.

Also, who has lost their base in ORD, DFW and MIA? All of them are successful profitable hubs for the majors, despite any LCC competition. If anything, especially in FLL, the ultra low-costs are attracting new, trashy passengers - not stealing from the majors.
 
SESGDL
Posts: 3067
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 6:25 pm

STT757 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Look, I wasn't trying to be a jerk earlier and yes there was a bit of hyperbole.

The reality is that while there is an increase in ULCC/LCCs into ATL, the bigger threat to DL's business model is if they are unable to command a yield premium.
Not just in ATL, but across the network.
Passengers are willing to pay more for some combination of the following:
Schedule, overall experience, brand consistency, in-flight product, IFE, Skyclubs , operational reliability, Skymiles, AMEX credit cards, Elite status, Comfort +, First Class/D1.

If DL maintains these product/service/ammenities then people are still likely to pay a premium for a brand/product that perceive is worth the value.

The challenges are such
- if business travel recovers far less than expected and they don't get those passengers willing to pay a premium
- if they dilute their product to where others don't pay
- they can't recover the lost revenue made from "change fees"

The ULCC/LCC service at ATL (and at DTW & MSP) is targeting a passenger segment that historically DL has generally ignored and been okay with spilling to other airlines.
It is what it is.

Yes I do think DTW & MSP will probably end-up being ~50 flights/day less than pre-COVID. ATL will probably be 50-100 flights less at least through Summer 2022.
I think DL's biggest challenge, but they won't admit it yet, in the near-term is NYC. Its very unclear how quickly LGA & JFK start to recover and to what extent over the next 2-3 years.


I agree 100% with this analysis, and I also think that, as wealthy people continue to leave NYC for tax and public safety reasons, the number of DL flights at LGA / JFK is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least 3-5 years.

I think DL's 2nd biggest challenge is SEA, where the AA+AS partnership, and AS's entry into One World, means passengers in Seattle have a viable alternative to DL for both their domestic (AS) and overseas (AS' One World partners) flying, for the first time since DL's buildup.


People fleeing NYC are going to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island and Westchester.


Are there any numbers regarding people who've actually left NYC? I keep hearing about it but is there any data to support how many people have permanently left?

Jeremy
 
WA707atMSP
Posts: 2140
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:16 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:46 pm

STT757 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Look, I wasn't trying to be a jerk earlier and yes there was a bit of hyperbole.

The reality is that while there is an increase in ULCC/LCCs into ATL, the bigger threat to DL's business model is if they are unable to command a yield premium.
Not just in ATL, but across the network.
Passengers are willing to pay more for some combination of the following:
Schedule, overall experience, brand consistency, in-flight product, IFE, Skyclubs , operational reliability, Skymiles, AMEX credit cards, Elite status, Comfort +, First Class/D1.

If DL maintains these product/service/ammenities then people are still likely to pay a premium for a brand/product that perceive is worth the value.

The challenges are such
- if business travel recovers far less than expected and they don't get those passengers willing to pay a premium
- if they dilute their product to where others don't pay
- they can't recover the lost revenue made from "change fees"

The ULCC/LCC service at ATL (and at DTW & MSP) is targeting a passenger segment that historically DL has generally ignored and been okay with spilling to other airlines.
It is what it is.

Yes I do think DTW & MSP will probably end-up being ~50 flights/day less than pre-COVID. ATL will probably be 50-100 flights less at least through Summer 2022.
I think DL's biggest challenge, but they won't admit it yet, in the near-term is NYC. Its very unclear how quickly LGA & JFK start to recover and to what extent over the next 2-3 years.


I agree 100% with this analysis, and I also think that, as wealthy people continue to leave NYC for tax and public safety reasons, the number of DL flights at LGA / JFK is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least 3-5 years.

I think DL's 2nd biggest challenge is SEA, where the AA+AS partnership, and AS's entry into One World, means passengers in Seattle have a viable alternative to DL for both their domestic (AS) and overseas (AS' One World partners) flying, for the first time since DL's buildup.


People fleeing NYC are going to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island and Westchester.


The Wall Street Journal says a lot of wealthy people, who are DL's core customers, are moving to Florida, in part for tax reasons.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 785
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:29 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
STT757 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:

I agree 100% with this analysis, and I also think that, as wealthy people continue to leave NYC for tax and public safety reasons, the number of DL flights at LGA / JFK is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least 3-5 years.

I think DL's 2nd biggest challenge is SEA, where the AA+AS partnership, and AS's entry into One World, means passengers in Seattle have a viable alternative to DL for both their domestic (AS) and overseas (AS' One World partners) flying, for the first time since DL's buildup.


People fleeing NYC are going to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island and Westchester.


The Wall Street Journal says a lot of wealthy people, who are DL's core customers, are moving to Florida, in part for tax reasons.


Recently, the WSJ ran a piece with hard data that suggested for most people who moved from NYC (and the Northeast) to Florida during the pandemic, it was temporary (and they're going home). And as much as "moving to Florida" was hyped during the pandemic, it's projected that there were fewer domestic migrants to Florida in 2020 than there were in 2019 (which equates into half the number of the mid-2010s peak).

And yes, wealthy people are purchasing real estate in Florida, driving up the cost... but most often, it's simply an investment, with the property acting as a third, or fourth, or fifth, etc. home. Of course, many will take advantage and change their home domicile on paper. Just drive through high-taxed wealthy residential areas and count the number of luxury vehicles with Florida license plates. (Don't try this at home... this is tax evasion, not tax avoidance.)
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14636
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:22 am

WA707atMSP wrote:
STT757 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:

I agree 100% with this analysis, and I also think that, as wealthy people continue to leave NYC for tax and public safety reasons, the number of DL flights at LGA / JFK is unlikely to recover to 2019 levels for at least 3-5 years.

I think DL's 2nd biggest challenge is SEA, where the AA+AS partnership, and AS's entry into One World, means passengers in Seattle have a viable alternative to DL for both their domestic (AS) and overseas (AS' One World partners) flying, for the first time since DL's buildup.


People fleeing NYC are going to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island and Westchester.


The Wall Street Journal says a lot of wealthy people, who are DL's core customers, are moving to Florida, in part for tax reasons.


According to stats from the Postal service, Florida is not even in the top 20 locations requested for address changes by NY's leaving the City. The stats back up what's been mentioned already, the vast majority of those moving out of NYC are moving to the suburbs of New Jersey, Connecticut, Westchester and Long Island.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/14/new-stats-reveal-massive-nyc-exodus-amid-coronavirus-crime/

Where they landed
Top destinations for New Yorkers who left the city between March and October, with the number of change of address requests for each zip code:
1. East Hampton, NY 11937: 2,769
2. Jersey City, NJ 07302: 1,821
3. Southampton, NY 11968: 1,398
4. Hoboken, NJ 07030: 1,204
5. Sag Harbor, NY 11963: 961
6. Scarsdale, NY 10583: 812
7. Water Mill, NY 11976: 577
8. Greenwich, Conn. 06830: 558
9. Yonkers, NY 10701: 567
10. Jersey City, NJ 07310: 434
11. Port Washington, NY 11050: 414
12. Westhampton Beach, NY 11978: 409
13. Princeton, NJ 08540: 395
14. Woodstock, NY 12498: 392
15. New Canaan, Conn. 06840: 389
16. Great Neck/Manhasset, NY 11021: 380
17. Hampton Bays, NY 11946: 344
18. Darien, Conn. 06820: 326
19. Mount Vernon, NY 10550: 325


#1, #3, #5, #8, #13, #15 are the wealthiest.
 
777Mech
Posts: 1298
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2016 10:54 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:10 am

n9801f wrote:
tphuang wrote:
You obviously have no idea how strong of a hub ATL is. Comparing it to AA at MIA is a joke.

Strong, yes. Invincible, no.

ATL is hardly impervious to the effects of LCC competition. In fact, it's a ripe hunting ground for them because ATL customers have had limited competition.

If you scoff at this argument, just look at what happened when Delta left an opening for AirTran to build a huge hub, and the effect that had on Delta.

The airline industry is littered with examples of airlines unaccustomed to competition clinging unsuccessfully to monopolist strategies. Ignore them at your peril.

I think the mindset behind your comment speaks to a bigger issue: maybe Delta is better at playing offense than defense. But if you get so distracted with growth ambitions out West that you forget to mind business back at home, taking your future success for granted, you might come home a surprise.

"Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."


You're saying all of this, but how is any competitor going to build up the operation to take on DL? B6 was up in arms because they can't get any gates. F9 and NK are constrained to 3 gates a piece, and B6 only has one gate. Any further expansions to gates are going to UA, AA and DL.

Don't forget WN gave up 11 gates on D concourse years ago, and guess who snatched up a vast majority? DL.
 
Deltran757
Posts: 76
Joined: Sun Jun 22, 2008 5:37 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:18 am

777Mech wrote:
n9801f wrote:
tphuang wrote:
You obviously have no idea how strong of a hub ATL is. Comparing it to AA at MIA is a joke.

Strong, yes. Invincible, no.

ATL is hardly impervious to the effects of LCC competition. In fact, it's a ripe hunting ground for them because ATL customers have had limited competition.

If you scoff at this argument, just look at what happened when Delta left an opening for AirTran to build a huge hub, and the effect that had on Delta.

The airline industry is littered with examples of airlines unaccustomed to competition clinging unsuccessfully to monopolist strategies. Ignore them at your peril.

I think the mindset behind your comment speaks to a bigger issue: maybe Delta is better at playing offense than defense. But if you get so distracted with growth ambitions out West that you forget to mind business back at home, taking your future success for granted, you might come home a surprise.

"Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."


You're saying all of this, but how is any competitor going to build up the operation to take on DL? B6 was up in arms because they can't get any gates. F9 and NK are constrained to 3 gates a piece, and B6 only has one gate. Any further expansions to gates are going to UA, AA and DL.

Don't forget WN gave up 11 gates on D concourse years ago, and guess who snatched up a vast majority? DL.


Thank you. Sometimes I just sit back and just eat my popcorn until someone with sense actually present facts. Actually NK use gate D2 & D4, while F9 uses D1A & D1. The common use gate is D3 when Alaska isn’t using the gate for their 2 departures per day. B6 use E2 most of the time, but once in a while they’ll use D3. Sometimes you’ll catch NK & F9 using E gates for their early morning departures. So the question is, how much can NK and F9 grow in Atlanta with their limited gates and also WN with 18 gates compared to Delta with over 80 plus gates and not counting international E and F gates? Trust me, Delta uses E and F gates heavily as well.
 
umichman
Posts: 303
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:11 pm

Deltran757 wrote:
777Mech wrote:
You're saying all of this, but how is any competitor going to build up the operation to take on DL? B6 was up in arms because they can't get any gates. F9 and NK are constrained to 3 gates a piece, and B6 only has one gate. Any further expansions to gates are going to UA, AA and DL.

Don't forget WN gave up 11 gates on D concourse years ago, and guess who snatched up a vast majority? DL.


Thank you. Sometimes I just sit back and just eat my popcorn until someone with sense actually present facts. Actually NK use gate D2 & D4, while F9 uses D1A & D1. The common use gate is D3 when Alaska isn’t using the gate for their 2 departures per day. B6 use E2 most of the time, but once in a while they’ll use D3. Sometimes you’ll catch NK & F9 using E gates for their early morning departures. So the question is, how much can NK and F9 grow in Atlanta with their limited gates and also WN with 18 gates compared to Delta with over 80 plus gates and not counting international E and F gates? Trust me, Delta uses E and F gates heavily as well.


Other than DEN, NK/F9 do not really seem interested in building "hubs" and appear to be content going after low-hanging fruit leisure routes and thus don't really represent any kind of existential threat to the legacies or their hubs. WN has considerably more market power, but they aren't always successful. Still remember their attempt to build-up PHL at the expense of US and how that fizzled out. I think they realize that DL is too strong in ATL to have much growth potential and they won't be able to grow it like they did DEN. It's not always about a lack of gates.
 
Luke1994
Posts: 45
Joined: Thu May 25, 2017 11:40 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:48 pm

If Atlanta ever gets a second airport ala Houston, then it’ll be time to worry for DL. As it stands now? It’s an absolute fortress in every sense of the word.
 
Runway765
Posts: 500
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:50 pm

777Mech wrote:
n9801f wrote:
tphuang wrote:
You obviously have no idea how strong of a hub ATL is. Comparing it to AA at MIA is a joke.

Strong, yes. Invincible, no.

ATL is hardly impervious to the effects of LCC competition. In fact, it's a ripe hunting ground for them because ATL customers have had limited competition.

If you scoff at this argument, just look at what happened when Delta left an opening for AirTran to build a huge hub, and the effect that had on Delta.

The airline industry is littered with examples of airlines unaccustomed to competition clinging unsuccessfully to monopolist strategies. Ignore them at your peril.

I think the mindset behind your comment speaks to a bigger issue: maybe Delta is better at playing offense than defense. But if you get so distracted with growth ambitions out West that you forget to mind business back at home, taking your future success for granted, you might come home a surprise.

"Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."


You're saying all of this, but how is any competitor going to build up the operation to take on DL? B6 was up in arms because they can't get any gates. F9 and NK are constrained to 3 gates a piece, and B6 only has one gate. Any further expansions to gates are going to UA, AA and DL.

Don't forget WN gave up 11 gates on D concourse years ago, and guess who snatched up a vast majority? DL.


When did WN have 11 gates on D?
 
B752OS
Posts: 1346
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2005 4:05 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:05 pm

Luke1994 wrote:
If Atlanta ever gets a second airport ala Houston, then it’ll be time to worry for DL. As it stands now? It’s an absolute fortress in every sense of the word.


It can be safely said that Atlanta, or any major metro area for that matter, is never getting a second airport.
 
phatfarmlines
Posts: 2084
Joined: Thu Sep 27, 2001 12:06 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:26 pm

Runway765 wrote:

When did WN have 11 gates on D?


It's a carryover from the FL hub. Post FL/WN merger, this was one of the first things WN gave up as it "right-sized" the operation. Some of the gates are now used by DL, and the cluster of five common-use gates at the south end of D is the LCC/ULCC "madhouse" used by NK/F9/B6/AS. These carriers may also spill operations into Concourse E during peak times.
 
alohashirts
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:45 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:58 pm

I’m seeing DL is resuming SLC-STS/MRY, is that true? If so I’m surprised they are resuming those before SBA comes back.
 
AC4500
Posts: 832
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:33 pm

alohashirts wrote:
I’m seeing DL is resuming SLC-STS/MRY, is that true? If so I’m surprised they are resuming those before SBA comes back.

I'm not seeing this. Are the routes for sale yet?
 
jplatts
Posts: 5298
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:37 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
AirportRival wrote:
Any guesses as to how far back I could go to see people predicting that Delta is going to cut CVG? I've never quite understood the constant negativity that people have towards CVG on here.

Yes Delta has cut CVG over the years and yes there is a chance that they will cut more in the coming years but I have a hard time believing that they are going to just give up on CVG and make it just a spoke with service to hubs only. Before the pandemic, the passenger count flying Delta out of CVG was growing again. If it continues when a sense of normalcy comes back then why would Delta keep cutting?


CVG is not even a DL focus city anymore. That should be telling about what DL plans to do there in the foreseeable future.


tphuang wrote:
And no, reducing CVG alone will not be enough to fund the growth at SLC/SEA/LAX. You can make your own guesses on how large DL will be at BOS/RDU/CVG in 2 years. I expect them to all be quite a bit smaller than pre-COVID. Whether they ever recover to pre-COVID size is hard to say. That really depends on what kind of opportunities will open up.

It should not shock people if some of the routes you see operating out of BOS/RDU/CVG or even MSP/DTW gets cuts in the next year as they are forced to bring back all the NYC flying and expand in the west part of the country. I'm not talking about routes that have been cut month to month. I'm talking about routes that have actually operated a few months, but may not be generating enough returns when the core business traffic returns.


There were many factors other than the DL-NW merger or the DL DTW hub that eliminated the need for a DL hub at CVG, including
  • AA inheriting the CLT, PHL, PHX, and DCA hubs through the AA-US merger
  • F9, G4, and WN adding service to CVG
  • FL adding service out of CMH in 2008
  • AS adding service to ATL, BWI, CHS, CMH, JFK, PHL, PIT, RDU, and IAD
  • VX adding service to BOS, JFK, EWR, PHL, and IAD from SFO and LAX
  • B6 adding nonstop service to SFO and LAX from JFK and BOS
  • B6 entering some additional markets such as ABQ, BOI, CLE, DFW, DTW, HDN, MSP, MTJ, and RNO
  • The WN-FL merger, including additional destinations such as ATL, CLT, DSM, GRR, MEM, PWM, RIC, ROC, DCA, and ICT that WN inherited through the WN-FL merger
  • Further expansion by WN at BWI, MDW, DAL, DEN, BNA, HOU, STL, and other airports
  • Further expansion by G4, F9, and NK in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast
  • Extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions added at DCA in 2012

Most of the destinations that lost DL nonstop service to CVG still have 1-stop connecting options to the destinations that DL was serving nonstop from CVG during the DL hub days through other hubs such as ATL, ORD, CLT, DTW, PHL, DCA, and/or IAD. Some of the passengers who were previously connecting to the East Coast or Southeast through CVG on DL during the DL CVG hub days are now traveling on other airlines such as AA, WN, G4, B6, AS, F9, and/or NK.
 
Lootess
Posts: 748
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:23 pm

You didn’t need to write a novel.

DTW doomed CVG as a hub, one was obviously way stronger, like Northwest WorldGateway stronger.
 
kavok
Posts: 1036
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:48 pm

The reality is DL cannot get to 2019 levels in 2021 or 2022, even if the market warranted it due to frame reductions. DL does not and will not have the capacity in its fleet to fly what it did in 2019, short of an unexpected increase in new (or un-retired) frames.

This means service cuts have to remain somewhere. It also means any new or resuming flight faces a steeper opportunity cost than 2019. Given the forced choice, it is more valuable to rebuild the hubs than focus cities. This is the reason CVG, BOS, and RDU aren’t going to come back quickly, and why any significant build up at AUS is still a few years away. It is also why flights like IND/TPA/AUS-CDG/AMS are going to be very slow to return, at least on DL metal anyway.
 
User avatar
airzim
Posts: 1562
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2001 7:40 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:59 pm

STT757 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
STT757 wrote:

People fleeing NYC are going to New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island and Westchester.


The Wall Street Journal says a lot of wealthy people, who are DL's core customers, are moving to Florida, in part for tax reasons.


According to stats from the Postal service, Florida is not even in the top 20 locations requested for address changes by NY's leaving the City. The stats back up what's been mentioned already, the vast majority of those moving out of NYC are moving to the suburbs of New Jersey, Connecticut, Westchester and Long Island.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/14/new-stats-reveal-massive-nyc-exodus-amid-coronavirus-crime/

Where they landed
Top destinations for New Yorkers who left the city between March and October, with the number of change of address requests for each zip code:
1. East Hampton, NY 11937: 2,769
2. Jersey City, NJ 07302: 1,821
3. Southampton, NY 11968: 1,398
4. Hoboken, NJ 07030: 1,204
5. Sag Harbor, NY 11963: 961
6. Scarsdale, NY 10583: 812
7. Water Mill, NY 11976: 577
8. Greenwich, Conn. 06830: 558
9. Yonkers, NY 10701: 567
10. Jersey City, NJ 07310: 434
11. Port Washington, NY 11050: 414
12. Westhampton Beach, NY 11978: 409
13. Princeton, NJ 08540: 395
14. Woodstock, NY 12498: 392
15. New Canaan, Conn. 06840: 389
16. Great Neck/Manhasset, NY 11021: 380
17. Hampton Bays, NY 11946: 344
18. Darien, Conn. 06820: 326
19. Mount Vernon, NY 10550: 325


#1, #3, #5, #8, #13, #15 are the wealthiest.


And those numbers are tiny in a city of 8 Million people. All of those locations are vacation communities or in the commuter corridor in high tax states too. You don't leave NYC and move to Westchester or NJ for lower taxes.

Plus we have no idea on their wealth. Wealthy people are not leaving NYC for Jersey City, Yonkers or Hoboken, no offense :)

I live in one of the wealthier zip codes in Lower Manhattan and this is an anecdote of 1. A few families have decamped for the year from their NYC apartment to their 2nd homes (Hamptons, Upstate NY, CT etc.) Many are now coming back. Others that were priced out of the Manhattan real estate, renters, or had other familiar circumstances, (and were likely to move anyway) left and bought. They're likely not coming back. I say renters because it was hard to sell your apartment in 2020 and it would have been hard to move if you needed the cash out.

A few others went to Park City and LA. But the vast majority of people I know in my children's school have stayed, including my family. Nobody I know moved to FL. The folks in our community are also not moving because of tax reasons. That storyline is so overplayed. That's not to say people aren't moving out of NYC, but it's not wealthy people that are leaving in droves.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2953
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:07 pm

If Delta doesn't resume operations on Concourse C within the next 90 days then the airport should take them away and give them to other airlines who desperately need ATL gates. It is clear that Delta has more than enough gates to meet their needs.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 6520
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:12 pm

airzim wrote:
STT757 wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:

The Wall Street Journal says a lot of wealthy people, who are DL's core customers, are moving to Florida, in part for tax reasons.


According to stats from the Postal service, Florida is not even in the top 20 locations requested for address changes by NY's leaving the City. The stats back up what's been mentioned already, the vast majority of those moving out of NYC are moving to the suburbs of New Jersey, Connecticut, Westchester and Long Island.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/14/new-stats-reveal-massive-nyc-exodus-amid-coronavirus-crime/

Where they landed
Top destinations for New Yorkers who left the city between March and October, with the number of change of address requests for each zip code:
1. East Hampton, NY 11937: 2,769
2. Jersey City, NJ 07302: 1,821
3. Southampton, NY 11968: 1,398
4. Hoboken, NJ 07030: 1,204
5. Sag Harbor, NY 11963: 961
6. Scarsdale, NY 10583: 812
7. Water Mill, NY 11976: 577
8. Greenwich, Conn. 06830: 558
9. Yonkers, NY 10701: 567
10. Jersey City, NJ 07310: 434
11. Port Washington, NY 11050: 414
12. Westhampton Beach, NY 11978: 409
13. Princeton, NJ 08540: 395
14. Woodstock, NY 12498: 392
15. New Canaan, Conn. 06840: 389
16. Great Neck/Manhasset, NY 11021: 380
17. Hampton Bays, NY 11946: 344
18. Darien, Conn. 06820: 326
19. Mount Vernon, NY 10550: 325


#1, #3, #5, #8, #13, #15 are the wealthiest.


And those numbers are tiny in a city of 8 Million people. All of those locations are vacation communities or in the commuter corridor in high tax states too. You don't leave NYC and move to Westchester or NJ for lower taxes.

Plus we have no idea on their wealth. Wealthy people are not leaving NYC for Jersey City, Yonkers or Hoboken, no offense :)

I live in one of the wealthier zip codes in Lower Manhattan and this is an anecdote of 1. A few families have decamped for the year from their NYC apartment to their 2nd homes (Hamptons, Upstate NY, CT etc.) Many are now coming back. Others that were priced out of the Manhattan real estate, renters, or had other familiar circumstances, (and were likely to move anyway) left and bought. They're likely not coming back. I say renters because it was hard to sell your apartment in 2020 and it would have been hard to move if you needed the cash out.

A few others went to Park City and LA. But the vast majority of people I know in my children's school have stayed, including my family. Nobody I know moved to FL. The folks in our community are also not moving because of tax reasons. That storyline is so overplayed. That's not to say people aren't moving out of NYC, but it's not wealthy people that are leaving in droves.


While the numbers themselves may not be enormous relative to NYC's total population, losing this amount of people in one year is noteworthy, and will likely shift O&D patterns for years to come.

Remember that wealthy individuals make up a disproportionate amount of air travel, so migration of even 1-2% of wealthy individuals is quite significant from an air travel perspective.

Image
Image
Image

https://public.tableau.com/profile/eric ... onAnalysis
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 785
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:50 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
If Delta doesn't resume operations on Concourse C within the next 90 days then the airport should take them away and give them to other airlines who desperately need ATL gates. It is clear that Delta has more than enough gates to meet their needs.


Which airline(s) is (are) begging for additional gates? I see a perpetual logical fallacy repeated — DL has lots and lots of flights at ATL, therefore other airlines want a piece of the action — but no facts. Yes, ATL has a lot of o/d... but the vast majority of passengers are connecting there.

No legacy airline is interested in opening a hub at ATL. WN is a smaller carrier at ATL than FL was, and has room for growth. And what cities lack ULCC competition?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6872
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:23 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If Delta doesn't resume operations on Concourse C within the next 90 days then the airport should take them away and give them to other airlines who desperately need ATL gates. It is clear that Delta has more than enough gates to meet their needs.


Which airline(s) is (are) begging for additional gates? I see a perpetual logical fallacy repeated — DL has lots and lots of flights at ATL, therefore other airlines want a piece of the action — but no facts. Yes, ATL has a lot of o/d... but the vast majority of passengers are connecting there.

No legacy airline is interested in opening a hub at ATL. WN is a smaller carrier at ATL than FL was, and has room for growth. And what cities lack ULCC competition?


Nk and f9 definitely want more gates.
 
User avatar
airzim
Posts: 1562
Joined: Wed Jun 20, 2001 7:40 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:34 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
airzim wrote:
STT757 wrote:

According to stats from the Postal service, Florida is not even in the top 20 locations requested for address changes by NY's leaving the City. The stats back up what's been mentioned already, the vast majority of those moving out of NYC are moving to the suburbs of New Jersey, Connecticut, Westchester and Long Island.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/14/new-stats-reveal-massive-nyc-exodus-amid-coronavirus-crime/

Where they landed
Top destinations for New Yorkers who left the city between March and October, with the number of change of address requests for each zip code:
1. East Hampton, NY 11937: 2,769
2. Jersey City, NJ 07302: 1,821
3. Southampton, NY 11968: 1,398
4. Hoboken, NJ 07030: 1,204
5. Sag Harbor, NY 11963: 961
6. Scarsdale, NY 10583: 812
7. Water Mill, NY 11976: 577
8. Greenwich, Conn. 06830: 558
9. Yonkers, NY 10701: 567
10. Jersey City, NJ 07310: 434
11. Port Washington, NY 11050: 414
12. Westhampton Beach, NY 11978: 409
13. Princeton, NJ 08540: 395
14. Woodstock, NY 12498: 392
15. New Canaan, Conn. 06840: 389
16. Great Neck/Manhasset, NY 11021: 380
17. Hampton Bays, NY 11946: 344
18. Darien, Conn. 06820: 326
19. Mount Vernon, NY 10550: 325


#1, #3, #5, #8, #13, #15 are the wealthiest.


And those numbers are tiny in a city of 8 Million people. All of those locations are vacation communities or in the commuter corridor in high tax states too. You don't leave NYC and move to Westchester or NJ for lower taxes.

Plus we have no idea on their wealth. Wealthy people are not leaving NYC for Jersey City, Yonkers or Hoboken, no offense :)

I live in one of the wealthier zip codes in Lower Manhattan and this is an anecdote of 1. A few families have decamped for the year from their NYC apartment to their 2nd homes (Hamptons, Upstate NY, CT etc.) Many are now coming back. Others that were priced out of the Manhattan real estate, renters, or had other familiar circumstances, (and were likely to move anyway) left and bought. They're likely not coming back. I say renters because it was hard to sell your apartment in 2020 and it would have been hard to move if you needed the cash out.

A few others went to Park City and LA. But the vast majority of people I know in my children's school have stayed, including my family. Nobody I know moved to FL. The folks in our community are also not moving because of tax reasons. That storyline is so overplayed. That's not to say people aren't moving out of NYC, but it's not wealthy people that are leaving in droves.


While the numbers themselves may not be enormous relative to NYC's total population, losing this amount of people in one year is noteworthy, and will likely shift O&D patterns for years to come.

Remember that wealthy individuals make up a disproportionate amount of air travel, so migration of even 1-2% of wealthy individuals is quite significant from an air travel perspective.

Image
Image
Image

https://public.tableau.com/profile/eric ... onAnalysis


But what we don't know are the wealth patterns, versus just raw numbers. New Yorkers and New Jerseyans have been moving to cheaper locations for decades, this is not an abnormal pattern. What is new is the amount, but relatively speaking, still small numbers. And those that do move, are moving to the NY and NJ suburbs, more expensive than the City in some cases, and LA is the next biggest one. Hardly the trend that supports the narrative that wealthy are leaving NY for cheaper tax states. Covid exacerbated a move by folks that might have held on another year or two, but pulled the plug and left early. However, we still have loads of younger people moving in, many people are moving back (they find the burbs dull) and a shift in the business ebb of the City. Including a shift away from Finance and toward Tech. We'll see but I think it's too early to really know.

I will say that the real estate market has seen a noticeable uptick in activity, in particular 3 bedroom apartments which depending on the neighborhood, can easily be $2M and way up. That would indicate families moving to get a bigger apartment, or new people moving in.

To get back on topic, what does that mean for the airlines? NYC metro is still far and away the largest business and commercial market in the US. It will remain that way at least for the foreseeable future. Couple that with tourism and I suspect after a few years, the airlines will be back to a semblance of normalcy. Maybe not, but I'm optimistic.
 
adtall
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 2010 2:53 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:56 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
If Delta doesn't resume operations on Concourse C within the next 90 days then the airport should take them away and give them to other airlines who desperately need ATL gates. It is clear that Delta has more than enough gates to meet their needs.


This will be an irrelevant issue well within that timeframe.
 
jplatts
Posts: 5298
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:04 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
No legacy airline is interested in opening a hub at ATL. WN is a smaller carrier at ATL than FL was, and has room for growth.


WN adding ATL-BUF/PWM/ROC/ICT nonstop service are possibilities once demand recovers with FL having served BUF, PWM, ROC, and ICT nonstop from ATL prior to the WN-FL merger.

WN re-adding ATL-BOS/DTW/LAX/MSP nonstop service might be possibilities once demand recovers as WN was able to fill ATL-BOS/DTW/LAX/MSP nonstop flights in the past. WN also had over 80% load factors on its ATL-DTW/LAX/MSP nonstop flights in 2019.

There are also some other nonstop routes that could be added by WN out of ATL such as ATL-ABQ/ORD/CVG/IAH/SMF/SLC/TUL once demand recovers.
 
acecrackshot
Posts: 215
Joined: Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:22 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:10 am

usflyer msp wrote:

The business travellers DL's business model depends on are not flying F9 and NK anywhere and DL is not crying over missing $39 ATL-Florida passengers. ATL and DL's other core hubs are fine.


Dependence on business travel moving forward?

That's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see how it plays out.
 
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FlyingJhawk
Posts: 305
Joined: Thu Mar 22, 2007 9:26 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:56 am

I haven't read every single post on this thread, but was flying DL 2-4 each week when COVID. Stopped flying for 6 months and since November I'm guessing I've been on about 50 DL flights from coast to coast. I already had status with DL but any doubt I was going to switch was erased by how the handled COVID. No middle seats, no companions in F and from my experience zero issues with customers not wearing masks. They are very, very consistent and when I'm flying 4 segments 3 weeks out of 4, I value consistency when it comes to my health and schedule. Sure, some of the fleet need to be updated and some just retired but there's no way in hell I am switching. Granted pretty much 95% of my travel is corporate so I am not footing the bill but the company I work prefers we fly Delta because of the aforementioned reasons and so do I.

On a side note, first time today on their A350 in C+. Very nice hard and soft product.
 
Deltran757
Posts: 76
Joined: Sun Jun 22, 2008 5:37 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:03 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
If Delta doesn't resume operations on Concourse C within the next 90 days then the airport should take them away and give them to other airlines who desperately need ATL gates. It is clear that Delta has more than enough gates to meet their needs.


Not happening. Delta is schedule to reopen concourse C May 1st. There was a internal memo asking employees who wanted opt for Concourse C.
 
evank516
Posts: 2294
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:15 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:49 am

AC4500 wrote:
alohashirts wrote:
I’m seeing DL is resuming SLC-STS/MRY, is that true? If so I’m surprised they are resuming those before SBA comes back.

I'm not seeing this. Are the routes for sale yet?


Resuming? I don't remember DL serving SLC-STS at the time COVID hit. I thought they axed MRY years ago.
 
floridaflyboy
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:26 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:02 pm

tphuang wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
If Delta doesn't resume operations on Concourse C within the next 90 days then the airport should take them away and give them to other airlines who desperately need ATL gates. It is clear that Delta has more than enough gates to meet their needs.


Which airline(s) is (are) begging for additional gates? I see a perpetual logical fallacy repeated — DL has lots and lots of flights at ATL, therefore other airlines want a piece of the action — but no facts. Yes, ATL has a lot of o/d... but the vast majority of passengers are connecting there.

No legacy airline is interested in opening a hub at ATL. WN is a smaller carrier at ATL than FL was, and has room for growth. And what cities lack ULCC competition?


Nk and f9 definitely want more gates.


They told you that? I've not seen a single statement from either saying, "we'd like to continue growing ATL, but can't because we've asked for more gates and can't get them." Any links?
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 6520
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:15 pm

floridaflyboy wrote:
tphuang wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

Which airline(s) is (are) begging for additional gates? I see a perpetual logical fallacy repeated — DL has lots and lots of flights at ATL, therefore other airlines want a piece of the action — but no facts. Yes, ATL has a lot of o/d... but the vast majority of passengers are connecting there.

No legacy airline is interested in opening a hub at ATL. WN is a smaller carrier at ATL than FL was, and has room for growth. And what cities lack ULCC competition?


Nk and f9 definitely want more gates.


They told you that? I've not seen a single statement from either saying, "we'd like to continue growing ATL, but can't because we've asked for more gates and can't get them." Any links?


"Spirit Airlines Seeks More Gates at Atlanta Airport"

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/n ... ta-airport
 
floridaflyboy
Posts: 1660
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 3:26 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:01 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
floridaflyboy wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Nk and f9 definitely want more gates.


They told you that? I've not seen a single statement from either saying, "we'd like to continue growing ATL, but can't because we've asked for more gates and can't get them." Any links?


"Spirit Airlines Seeks More Gates at Atlanta Airport"

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/n ... ta-airport


Other than the headline (written by the journalist, not by Spirit), I see nothing that specifically says they want more gates. What Christie is quoted as saying is that having their operation split between common use gates on E and preferential use gates on D creates logistical issues. That makes perfect sense. He's simply saying they want to consolidate the operation. Who wouldn't? I'm not disputing they want different gates in order to run a better and likely somewhat larger operation. But they're not biting at the airport's heels for more gates. They'd just move the operation from the E gates to the preferential gates.
 
jplatts
Posts: 5298
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:51 pm

DFW-CVG currently has no nonstop competition with AA currently being the only airline serving CVG nonstop from the DFW/DAL market and both DL and F9 having suspended DFW-CVG nonstop service during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DFW-CVG had also continuously had nonstop competition until the COVID-19 pandemic as AA and DL had both long served CVG nonstop from DFW until the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

DL is currently scheduled to resume DFW-CVG nonstop service on June 5th, and F9 is currently scheduled to resume DFW-CVG nonstop service on June 11th. However, there is the possibility that DL and F9 push back the resumption of DFW-CVG nonstop service with the continuous cuts that DL and F9 have made on the DFW-CVG route during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AA has also already downgauged DFW-CVG to all regional jets through at least 6/3/2021, but there is the possibility of downgauging of AA DFW-CVG nonstop flights past 6/3/2021.

There are also fewer connecting options between DFW/DAL and CVG with the significant cuts that were made on AA ORD-DFW/CVG, UA ORD-DFW/CVG, WN CVG-MDW, and DL DFW-ATL.

I had previously mentioned WN adding DAL-CVG nonstop service as a possibility with
(a) DFW-CVG likely able to support nonstop competition once demand recovers with DFW-CVG having long had nonstop competition prior to the COVID-19 pandemic,
(b) CVG being one of the top remaining destinations without nonstop service from DAL,
(c) CVG having had strong demand from the DFW/DAL market prior to the pandemic,
(d) the possibility of further cuts by AA, DL, and F9 on the DFW-CVG route,
(e) WN having a significant FF base in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Vegas, and Southern California to support DAL-CVG nonstop service on WN,
(f) WN being less reliant on O&D to make DAL-CVG nonstop service work with the connections that WN would be offering at DAL (especially with the significant cuts that WN has already made on MDW-CVG/AUS/LAX/SAT/SAN during the COVID-19 pandemic) whereas DL and F9 would need more O&D traffic to make DFW-CVG nonstop service work, and
(g) fewer connecting options between DFW/DAL and CVG with the significant cuts made by AA, DL, UA, and WN during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Is DL expected to suspend or permanently continue DFW-CVG nonstop service, or will DL resume DFW-CVG nonstop service?
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 785
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:03 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
"Spirit Airlines Seeks More Gates at Atlanta Airport"

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/n ... ta-airport


As @floridaflyboy pointed out, the article's author appears to have erroneously inferred NK's comments. The likelihood of NK desiring more gates status quo is slim at best -- NK targets leisure routes that can generate enough traffic to support daily service. As it is, some of the routes they've announced likely won't last -- let's be frank, it's improbable that four airlines, including a LCC and two ULCC, will survive over the long-term on routes like ATL-CLE. Another gate equates into NK having to come up with another flights; ATL is a business heavy, not a leisure heavy, market.

Yes, ATL is a large O/D market but its position is exaggerated by DL flowing 75M+ connecting passengers through its terminals. DL has concluded that it's financially advantageous to push as much traffic as possible through ATL, as it allows the airline to offer frequent service on lower-cost, larger mainline equipment. A.net sees the final statistics and concludes there should be a third airline hubbing in ATL.

Let's be frank -- it's not a coincidence that DL began growing ATL exponentially after WN shrank and refocused its (inherited) operation. In an alternate reality, where UA could magically build a floating concourse and become the third hub carrier, it'd take away O/D traffic from DL, ultimately forcing DL to change its business model. Thus, the total traffic may not be that different.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6872
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: What is Delta Doing?

Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:19 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
"Spirit Airlines Seeks More Gates at Atlanta Airport"

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/n ... ta-airport


As @floridaflyboy pointed out, the article's author appears to have erroneously inferred NK's comments. The likelihood of NK desiring more gates status quo is slim at best -- NK targets leisure routes that can generate enough traffic to support daily service. As it is, some of the routes they've announced likely won't last -- let's be frank, it's improbable that four airlines, including a LCC and two ULCC, will survive over the long-term on routes like ATL-CLE. Another gate equates into NK having to come up with another flights; ATL is a business heavy, not a leisure heavy, market.

Yes, ATL is a large O/D market but its position is exaggerated by DL flowing 75M+ connecting passengers through its terminals. DL has concluded that it's financially advantageous to push as much traffic as possible through ATL, as it allows the airline to offer frequent service on lower-cost, larger mainline equipment. A.net sees the final statistics and concludes there should be a third airline hubbing in ATL.

Let's be frank -- it's not a coincidence that DL began growing ATL exponentially after WN shrank and refocused its (inherited) operation. In an alternate reality, where UA could magically build a floating concourse and become the third hub carrier, it'd take away O/D traffic from DL, ultimately forcing DL to change its business model. Thus, the total traffic may not be that different.


They said in there that they want more preferential gates. They are now forced to use CUTE gates in another concourse because there is no preferential gates available. CUTE gates are not NK gates. F9 is dealing with the same issue as they are setting up a base at ATL.
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