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777luver
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:47 am

intotheair wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
That’s a bummer. 2MM Plat and I called and the agent wouldn’t consider that solution. Hoping I have one more family trip before next March to use it.


Did you HUCA? I've definitely heard it can be done. I didn't try, but I instead just built a spreadsheet to keep track of all my credits as best as I could. I found AS to be a little more confusing, and AC held my money hostage until they finally got a bailout from the Canadian government.


The govt didn't want to provide federal aid until 2 weeks ago.....the airlines were not the sole problem. Plus, the govt forced airlines to stop flights last year not the airlines. AC didn't help their public image but had no issues providing refunds at all if they were given aid. Plus, they had refunded refundable fares to the tune of $1.2 billion, it was the NON REFUNDABLE fares that had people upset. And it's not a bailout, it's federal aid.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:47 pm

777luver wrote:
intotheair wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
That’s a bummer. 2MM Plat and I called and the agent wouldn’t consider that solution. Hoping I have one more family trip before next March to use it.


Did you HUCA? I've definitely heard it can be done. I didn't try, but I instead just built a spreadsheet to keep track of all my credits as best as I could. I found AS to be a little more confusing, and AC held my money hostage until they finally got a bailout from the Canadian government.


The govt didn't want to provide federal aid until 2 weeks ago.....the airlines were not the sole problem. Plus, the govt forced airlines to stop flights last year not the airlines. AC didn't help their public image but had no issues providing refunds at all if they were given aid. Plus, they had refunded refundable fares to the tune of $1.2 billion, it was the NON REFUNDABLE fares that had people upset. And it's not a bailout, it's federal aid.


I’m just saying that customers are the innocent bystanders and the people that will make the revenue flow again later. Not giving refunds is something the airlines negotiated with the credit card issuers. Customers finished last in this equation. Paid our taxes and let the airlines hold our money despite that being a violation of their own terms. I have no ill will towards the airlines, but would have appreciated a more customer friendly view after the fact.
 
B764er
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Mon Apr 26, 2021 11:08 pm

Someone mentioned the UA764 getting the engine change. Is it done yet? Also saw the amazing photo of the ex China A319 on its way to a new paintjob. Saw the fuel truck under it's wing and it reminded me of my old airport job. I hope to get called back soon. I miss that job.
 
Coalways
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:33 pm

Isn’t United having a 2day event starting today?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:43 pm

Coalways wrote:
Isn’t United having a 2day event starting today?


Link below:

https://na.eventscloud.com/website/24698/
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:27 pm

Fitch downgraded six tranches of United Airlines' EETC debt. They stated the downgrades are primarily driven by lower secondary market values of aircraft used as collateral in the transactions.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/c ... 26-04-2021
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:05 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Fitch downgraded six tranches of United Airlines' EETC debt. They stated the downgrades are primarily driven by lower secondary market values of aircraft used as collateral in the transactions.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/c ... 26-04-2021


Looks primarily tied to a 10-15% yoy decline in valuation of the 77W fleet; not terribly surprising given the glut in that category on the secondary market.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:08 pm

codc10 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Fitch downgraded six tranches of United Airlines' EETC debt. They stated the downgrades are primarily driven by lower secondary market values of aircraft used as collateral in the transactions.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/c ... 26-04-2021


Looks primarily tied to a 10-15% yoy decline in valuation of the 77W fleet; not terribly surprising given the glut in that category on the secondary market.

Time to stock up and replace the 77A's. I know they won't, but it would be cool to grow the 77W fleet on the cheap. If UA wanted to consolidate to just GE 777's, the 22 GE 77E's could cover the few cargo heavy routes that the 77E has an advantage over the 789, and 77W's could cover the highest capacity routes, and 787's the rest.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:58 pm

Etihad just announced they are stopping 77W service. They have 19 GE models with an average of about 10 years (5 over 15 years, the rest between 11 and 6 years old).
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:01 pm

cosyr wrote:
Looks primarily tied to a 10-15% yoy decline in valuation of the 77W fleet; not terribly surprising given the glut in that category on the secondary market.

Time to stock up and replace the 77A's. I know they won't, but it would be cool to grow the 77W fleet on the cheap. If UA wanted to consolidate to just GE 777's, the 22 GE 77E's could cover the few cargo heavy routes that the 77E has an advantage over the 789, and 77W's could cover the highest capacity routes, and 787's the rest.[/quote]


I know what UA said during earnings live concerning the PW 777s that they would be returning, but when I went back I noticed they didn't say ALL PW 777s would be returning.

I could be wrong but I just have a gut feeling that you might be correct about the 77A especially the 2300 and 2400 series nose numbers. United has relocated all of the PW 77Es that were active at the time of the grounding from airport locations to long term storage facilities after the engines were inspected. However every single 2300 and 2400 series 77A that was active at the time of the grounding has not left the airport were the aircraft was located at the time of the grounding. Those aircraft are the oldest 777s in our PW fleet and perhaps I'm jumping to conclusions I just have a gut feeling the 2300 and 2400 series will not fly again and maybe United is now working on a replacement plan for those 13 77A frames.

Pre-pandemic there were 4 77E slated to join the domestic fleet with IPTE and nose to tail AVOD. The plan also called for installing nose to tail AVOD on the remainder of the domestic HD fleet. I still believe IPTE is not a competitive product at all, but what if UA were to rip out IPTE from the 4 remaining 77Es (including the frame already converted) and 2500 series 77A's replace IPTE with 32 Polaris seats (there are 32 Polaris seats between doors 1L/1R and 2L/2R on the international fleet). Install 24 premium economy seats in the first 3 rows behind door 2L/2R UA could probably still fit 290 seats including economy plus seats which would give us a total seat count of 343. If we need more than 9 HD frames why not convert a few more PW 77Es to HD 77Es, after all UA has taken delivery of a few 789s during this pandemic and it will take a few years for international flights to reach pre-pandemic levels.
 
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intotheair
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:13 pm

^^^

I like that idea of basically a low-J 77E. Could be good for hub-hub, Hawaii/GUM, p.s., and lower yielding TATL.

I don’t see UA buying used widebodies. Doesn’t the cost of reconfiguration make it not worth it? Maybe UA could be fine with fewer widebodies for the next few years given that demand may remain a little soft, and they have so many new 787s. Or maybe they might now actually have some interest in getting those A350s.
 
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psa1011
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:22 pm

A bit random, but with schedules finalized for at least the next month, is anyone aware why UA is only doing SFO-SAN 2-3x/day, while AS is at 6-7x/day? WN is doing 4-5x/day from OAK. UA is not routing anyone over LAX, so is UA simply not competing with AS on a popular intra-CA route?
 
sldispatcher
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:44 pm

psa1011 wrote:
A bit random, but with schedules finalized for at least the next month, is anyone aware why UA is only doing SFO-SAN 2-3x/day, while AS is at 6-7x/day? WN is doing 4-5x/day from OAK. UA is not routing anyone over LAX, so is UA simply not competing with AS on a popular intra-CA route?


Most likely just connecting to important banks and leaving WN and AS to duke it out over cheap fares.
 
maverick4002
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:57 pm

UA's 738's dont have PTVs or any kind of entertainment do they? I am on the EWR - BZE flight this coming Saturday and was just wondering?
 
jbs2886
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:02 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
UA's 738's dont have PTVs or any kind of entertainment do they? I am on the EWR - BZE flight this coming Saturday and was just wondering?


It will be on your booking information, but https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly/tr ... 7-800.html states "Seatback DIRECTV® and personal device entertainment."
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:17 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
UA's 738's dont have PTVs or any kind of entertainment do they? I am on the EWR - BZE flight this coming Saturday and was just wondering?


Most have DirecTV, but around 20 or so (former GUM and newest deliveries) are streaming-only.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:22 pm

codc10 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
Fitch downgraded six tranches of United Airlines' EETC debt. They stated the downgrades are primarily driven by lower secondary market values of aircraft used as collateral in the transactions.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/c ... 26-04-2021


Looks primarily tied to a 10-15% yoy decline in valuation of the 77W fleet; not terribly surprising given the glut in that category on the secondary market.


Where's that thread that argued 77Ws were special, and immune from economic forces? Uh huh.
 
SBAer
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:24 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
SBAer wrote:
I see the SBA-ORD nonstop bookable on united.com. Was there any discussion that they were going to try to formally give this a go and not push it out further?

First day I see it in the schedule is June 3. Depart SBA 7:20am and arrive ORD at 1:20. Return departs ORD at 7:45pm and arrives SBA at 10:30pm.

I also see that SBA-LAX is set to resume on May 8th.


No big announcement but it has been mentioned in some of the recent WN news stories. ORD will be on an E75 to start as opposed to 73G as originally planned, similar to the FAT resumption...although they’ve pushed the FAT E75 all the way out in the schedule and left the 73G in the future SBA schedule online, if that means anything. Also, a 2nd LAX is planned for June (a little odd considering they’ve cut SBP-LAX completely through at least June) as well as upgauges to mainline on 1x Denver and 1x SFO.


Looks like UA Mainline is taking over the SBA-ORD route as of July 1 on the 73G
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:25 pm

intotheair wrote:
^^^

I like that idea of basically a low-J 77E. Could be good for hub-hub, Hawaii/GUM, p.s., and lower yielding TATL.

I don’t see UA buying used widebodies. Doesn’t the cost of reconfiguration make it not worth it? Maybe UA could be fine with fewer widebodies for the next few years given that demand may remain a little soft, and they have so many new 787s. Or maybe they might now actually have some interest in getting those A350s.

They recently bought 3 used 763's, a model that people were convinced was on its way to retirement. Now they have an unexpectedly grounded fleet of some of their oldest widebodies, and a market of cheap younger replacements with similar engines to their younger groups of 777's. If they do want to capitalize on the fleet reductions at DL and AA, they could probably lease several 77W's with little capital required. Lessors would be thrilled to find a new home, the terms would probably be great. Maybe they'll even chip in with the costs of paint and reconfiguration. WN was so eager to get rid of FL's 717's they paid DL to take them, and paid for them to be reconfigured.
 
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intotheair
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:37 pm

cosyr wrote:
They recently bought 3 used 763's, a model that people were convinced was on its way to retirement.


Oh right! I forgot about the HA birds. That one was a little surprising.
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:50 pm

intotheair wrote:
cosyr wrote:
They recently bought 3 used 763's, a model that people were convinced was on its way to retirement.


Oh right! I forgot about the HA birds. That one was a little surprising.


Don't also forget about all the used NB's coming in, even though some if the A319's it sounds like are not going to make it into the fleet. :frown:
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:58 pm

psa1011 wrote:
A bit random, but with schedules finalized for at least the next month, is anyone aware why UA is only doing SFO-SAN 2-3x/day, while AS is at 6-7x/day? WN is doing 4-5x/day from OAK. UA is not routing anyone over LAX, so is UA simply not competing with AS on a popular intra-CA route?


AS/WN are connecting their hubs/focus cities together, which for any airline doing so will typically have higher frequencies on a hub-to-hub route than their peers who aren’t doing so.
 
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psa1011
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:18 am

ericm2031 wrote:
psa1011 wrote:
A bit random, but with schedules finalized for at least the next month, is anyone aware why UA is only doing SFO-SAN 2-3x/day, while AS is at 6-7x/day? WN is doing 4-5x/day from OAK. UA is not routing anyone over LAX, so is UA simply not competing with AS on a popular intra-CA route?


AS/WN are connecting their hubs/focus cities together, which for any airline doing so will typically have higher frequencies on a hub-to-hub route than their peers who aren’t doing so.


I guess I don't know enough about which destinations AS might be connecting, but I know SAN has nonstops to most of the PNW, and SFO has nonstops to Mexico. I thought SFO-SAN always at had substantial O&D.
 
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adamblang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:12 am

jbs2886 wrote:
maverick4002 wrote:
UA's 738's dont have PTVs or any kind of entertainment do they? I am on the EWR - BZE flight this coming Saturday and was just wondering?


It will be on your booking information, but https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly/tr ... 7-800.html states "Seatback DIRECTV® and personal device entertainment."


Bear in mind DirecTV only works over the continental United States – about half your flight you'll be out of the coverage area. The system should fall back to onboard looping video options.

https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly/tr ... nment.html
https://www.united.com/ual/en/us/fly/tr ... /wifi.html

(entertainment.html explains the coverage area, wifi.html has a map.)
 
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intotheair
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:07 am

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
intotheair wrote:
cosyr wrote:
They recently bought 3 used 763's, a model that people were convinced was on its way to retirement.


Oh right! I forgot about the HA birds. That one was a little surprising.


Don't also forget about all the used NB's coming in, even though some if the A319's it sounds like are not going to make it into the fleet. :frown:


Oh yes, I’m well aware of those, though I was talking specifically about used widebodies. I thought the conventional wisdom was always that used NBs can often be a good deal, but that used WBs are not worth the trouble. But perhaps those ex-HA 763s prove otherwise, and maybe The EK 777s would come at a good deal, especially if they flood the used market.
 
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ChaseP
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:32 am

EasyJet Airbus Update:
N3304U (Airbus 319) ferried from QLA to CLE (UA2715/27). Aircraft will ferry to GYR tomorrow for storage.

Storage Update:
N684UA (Boeing 767-300ER) ferried from ROW to SFO (UA2722/27). Aircraft will ferry through HNL for heavy maintenance entry at HKG.

Maintenance Update:
N464UA (Airbus 320) ferried from LCQ to DEN (UA2754/27) after heavy maintenance check.
N27724 (Boeing 737-700) is scheduled to ferry from IAH to INT (UA2759/29) for maintenance.
N14731 (Boeing 737-700) is scheduled to ferry from INT to IAH (UA2762/29) after maintenance.

Paint Update:
N76508 (Boeing 737-800) is scheduled to ferry from VCV to DEN (UA2691/28) after receiving EvoBlue.
N37419 (Boeing 737-900ER) is scheduled to ferry from IAH to VCV (UA2752/28) for EvoBlue.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:44 am

cosyr wrote:
intotheair wrote:
^^^

I like that idea of basically a low-J 77E. Could be good for hub-hub, Hawaii/GUM, p.s., and lower yielding TATL.

I don’t see UA buying used widebodies. Doesn’t the cost of reconfiguration make it not worth it? Maybe UA could be fine with fewer widebodies for the next few years given that demand may remain a little soft, and they have so many new 787s. Or maybe they might now actually have some interest in getting those A350s.

They recently bought 3 used 763's, a model that people were convinced was on its way to retirement. Now they have an unexpectedly grounded fleet of some of their oldest widebodies, and a market of cheap younger replacements with similar engines to their younger groups of 777's. If they do want to capitalize on the fleet reductions at DL and AA, they could probably lease several 77W's with little capital required. Lessors would be thrilled to find a new home, the terms would probably be great. Maybe they'll even chip in with the costs of paint and reconfiguration. WN was so eager to get rid of FL's 717's they paid DL to take them, and paid for them to be reconfigured.



I'm not entirely convinced UA would need used widebodies. We only have 13 PW 77A (2300 and 2400 nose number) those are the oldest frames that have not flown since the grounding. All of the PW 77Es that were in active service at the time of the grounding have since been relocated to storage facilities after their fan blades were inspected with no cracks found. UA already has 4 PW 77Es joining the HD fleet and we have 5 PW 77As (2500 nose number), if UA for instance were to move another 8 PW 77Es from international configuration to HD configuration and like I pointed out earlier get rid of IPTE and replace it with 32 Polaris seats, 24, PE seats and 290 economy/economy plus seats the total seat count would be 346. Together all those frames would give UA 17 HD frames and 12 would be 77Es. If we configure them with Polaris/PE instead of IPTE we could still use the 12 77Es interchangeably on Hawaii and when necessary some leisure TATL routes.

Since late January 2020 United has taken delivery of 13 787s with one more delivery on the books for later this year that would bring our total number of 787 deliveries to 14. So if UA ends up retiring the 13 (2300 and 2400 nose number) 77As it would simply bring our total widebody count back down to where we were pre-pandemic especially with the 764s coming back. If UA can get out of this with the same overall total widebody count as we had at the end of 2019 do we really need to go after used widebodies?
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:54 am

Any news from the UA customer connection event yesterday?
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:04 pm

joeljack wrote:
Does anybody have numbers on how many E-175's had seats removed down to only 70 seats vs 76? Also, with mainline picking back up, are seats being added back to the 175's yet in time for the busy summer season?

Thanks ahead of time!


They’re beginning to do them at the beginning of May and they will be done in early June. They won’t be selling them until all are completed to avoid any potential oversells due to downgauges.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:40 pm

Updated July is up on UAcargo

fun2fly wrote:
Any news from the UA customer connection event yesterday?


Watched a couple minutes of the network planning session this morning, basically a lot of the large corporate travel managers asking about network questions.

The network team was getting drilled by some of the corporate travel managers on the large SFO cutbacks. Roche which is UA's 3rd largest corporate customer in the Bay Area, talked about UA cutting nonstops on some of their core routes like SFO-IND and not offering competitive connecting options, essentially forcing them to shop for other carriers.

UA said that restoring SFO will be among the top of their list of priorities come the fall, and they expect to restore many nonstop routes then.


GSK asked about the possibility of p2p routes like RDU/PHL-LHR. UA basically emphasized they remain focused on hub flying, but if there is an opportunity that arises like BOS-LHR they will potentially consider it.
 
Pinto
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:37 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Updated July is up on UAcargo

fun2fly wrote:
Any news from the UA customer connection event yesterday?


Watched a couple minutes of the network planning session this morning, basically a lot of the large corporate travel managers asking about network questions.

The network team was getting drilled by some of the corporate travel managers on the large SFO cutbacks. Roche which is UA's 3rd largest corporate customer in the Bay Area, talked about UA cutting nonstops on some of their core routes like SFO-IND and not offering competitive connecting options, essentially forcing them to shop for other carriers.

UA said that restoring SFO will be among the top of their list of priorities come the fall, and they expect to restore many nonstop routes then.


GSK asked about the possibility of p2p routes like RDU/PHL-LHR. UA basically emphasized they remain focused on hub flying, but if there is an opportunity that arises like BOS-LHR they will potentially consider it.


The schedule is all sorts of messed up, SFO - BLR has wrong dates.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:59 pm

Pinto wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Updated July is up on UAcargo

fun2fly wrote:
Any news from the UA customer connection event yesterday?


Watched a couple minutes of the network planning session this morning, basically a lot of the large corporate travel managers asking about network questions.

The network team was getting drilled by some of the corporate travel managers on the large SFO cutbacks. Roche which is UA's 3rd largest corporate customer in the Bay Area, talked about UA cutting nonstops on some of their core routes like SFO-IND and not offering competitive connecting options, essentially forcing them to shop for other carriers.

UA said that restoring SFO will be among the top of their list of priorities come the fall, and they expect to restore many nonstop routes then.


GSK asked about the possibility of p2p routes like RDU/PHL-LHR. UA basically emphasized they remain focused on hub flying, but if there is an opportunity that arises like BOS-LHR they will potentially consider it.


The schedule is all sorts of messed up, SFO - BLR has wrong dates.


I wouldn't use UA cargo for int'l schedules, since int'l is updated on a different time horizon.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 5:59 pm

fun2fly wrote:
Any news from the UA customer connection event yesterday?


Not much, unfortunately.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:13 pm

Some tidbits I noted from the UA event so far:

o Vision for JFK - short term grow LAX/SFO to 4-6 frequencies. Then like to build upon that service with links to other hubs - ORD, IAH, DEN to offer beyond network connectivity. Hinted at other "great plans" further down the road.

o Clubs(ie Polaris) reopenning pace is driven by demand. In meantime as many clubs are closed, looking at how to reimagine service delivery, especially in area of food in the clubs.

o Still interested in a JV with Avianca-Copa, but inlight of COVID and AV reorganization efforts are currently "paused". In interim looking closer partnership within Star Alliance.

o For SFO, they are seeing "much less demand" versus rest of network driven by local restrictions and tech sector adopting work from home models, so previously served markets like those in Midwest not operating, but will still offer 150 daily departures this summer at SFO. Will add flights back right in line when business demand returns, hopefully this fall.

o Using 30-60-90 day demand gauge to help build future schedules. At moment its really about being nimble and trying to match supply to demand.

o For summer 2021, UA will be larger in Latin America than it has ever been driven by demand to markets like CUN, SJD, PVR and Central America.

o Forecasting domestic pricing return to more "normal zone" levels next 3-6 months.

o With so many widebody jet look forward to again offering best US global network.

o Longer vision - get back to building world class airline and the playbook that was evolving pre-pandemic. Have a 5-year roadmap of where to take the "new United". Lots to come.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:26 pm

cosyr wrote:
intotheair wrote:
^^^

I like that idea of basically a low-J 77E. Could be good for hub-hub, Hawaii/GUM, p.s., and lower yielding TATL.

I don’t see UA buying used widebodies. Doesn’t the cost of reconfiguration make it not worth it? Maybe UA could be fine with fewer widebodies for the next few years given that demand may remain a little soft, and they have so many new 787s. Or maybe they might now actually have some interest in getting those A350s.

If they do want to capitalize on the fleet reductions at DL and AA...


Capitalize? Like somebody throws an anchor off a swamping boat and you want to catch it? Even if the 777 subset were permanently retired tomorrow, UA likely has excess capacity (in the fleet or on order) for a few years.
 
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calpsafltskeds
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:44 pm

Jay, here's how I see potential 772 changes: (trash ITPE and 9 across seats)

The below would provide 17HD units (6 772A & 11 772E), 10 772E Polaris & 10 77W additions while minimizing new seat purchases: I love the idea of Polaris on HD units and ERs can operate on East Coast Hawaii and lower premium International routes.

Note: any retirement or conversion of Polaris 772ERs would probably release Polaris seats that could only be valuable for HD conversions or 77W additions.

772A: Retain 6 2000 units, need 144 total Polaris seats and 144 PP seats, release 264 Y seats
772A: Retire 13 pre-2000 units, release 4,368 Y Seats

772E: Retain 1 2001 Domestic unit already converted. Need 24 Polaris/24 PP seats, release 44 Y seats
772E: Convert 3 2001 to Domestic from ITPE, Need 72 Polaris/72 PP/858 Y seats
772E: Convert 7 2001/2 to Domestic, release 126 Polaris seats, need 588 Y seats
772E: Retain 10 1998-2001 Polaris units, no seat changes
772E: Retire 12 1997 Polaris units, release 600 Polaris/288 PP/2,424 Y seats
Inventory seats after above: 486 Polaris, 48 PP and 5,654 Y seats on hand

77W: Buy 10 used units,
Total Seats UA would need to purchase for 77W additions: Polaris 114/PP 192/Y 0 (2,994 would remain on hand)
 
joeljack
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:40 pm

Has anybody asked when United Clubs will open back up? Was in ORD a few days ago and it was PACKED! One club open at ORD is painful.
 
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janders
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 7:57 pm

joeljack wrote:
Has anybody asked when United Clubs will open back up? Was in ORD a few days ago and it was PACKED! One club open at ORD is painful.


It was just answered.

LAXintl wrote:
o Clubs(ie Polaris) reopenning pace is driven by demand. In meantime as many clubs are closed, looking at how to reimagine service delivery, especially in area of food in the clubs.
 
joeljack
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:13 pm

janders wrote:
joeljack wrote:
Has anybody asked when United Clubs will open back up? Was in ORD a few days ago and it was PACKED! One club open at ORD is painful.


It was just answered.

LAXintl wrote:
o Clubs(ie Polaris) reopenning pace is driven by demand. In meantime as many clubs are closed, looking at how to reimagine service delivery, especially in area of food in the clubs.


I saw that but I was not asking about the Polaris lounges, I was more interested in United Clubs. Polaris is for international and demand is not back yet but domestic demand is.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:20 pm

Some notes from Scott's interview;

o Year ago airline was losing $100m/day and without first tranche of government aid, he was looking at shutting the airline down until the crisis is over

o While a big data nerd, historic data was not very useful in forecasting the future in a pandemic. Had to develop a vision for the future without help of data.

o Believe some competitors underestimated early signs of pandemic. Feel proud of UA rapid response.

o Believe also now some competitors then overestimated the impact, with mass fleet retirements. Convinced biz travel and international will come back, so want to have the capacity to serve them.

o UA came into pandemic with biggest potential exposure - most international, most biz focused network, but has managed business and financials very well since. Believe in 1-2 years people will look back and say UA did the best.

o Business breakdown at UA is about 1/3 shorthaul leisure, 1/3 corp biz, 1/3 international longhaul. The shorthaul leisure portion is back 100% essentially. Biz travel is down over 80% and really won't pickup until offices are staffed - unlikely large volume to start, but build into 2022. International longhaul at mercy of border closures - believe huge pent-up demand.

o Combination of vaccines and test likely be required for sometime internationally. Hoping some large countries like US-UK can reach an agreement on a process that can serve as model for others.

o Pre-pandemic UA was heavily focused on changing the customer experience, changing the culture, empower employees. This is something that will continue out of crisis

o For future, would love customers to choose based on experience, and not only schedule/price. Wants to make human interaction, and product matter again.

o His two most important leadership jobs are to make employees proud to be part of United, and make customers like (if not love) United.

o Personal note for the pandemic, his 7th child arrived 2 months ago.
Last edited by LAXintl on Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:27 pm

joeljack wrote:
I saw that but I was not asking about the Polaris lounges, I was more interested in United Clubs. Polaris is for international and demand is not back yet but domestic demand is.


Reference was to all clubs. They said demand would drive their reopening.

Today domestic biz travel is still down 80%+ for United, which certainly must be a key driver in club decision making.

UA obviously has good data on who has holds club membership, and what percentage in what cities are flying to help determine when it makes sense to open more.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:53 pm

LAXintl wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I saw that but I was not asking about the Polaris lounges, I was more interested in United Clubs. Polaris is for international and demand is not back yet but domestic demand is.


Reference was to all clubs. They said demand would drive their reopening.

Today domestic biz travel is still down 80%+ for United, which certainly must be a key driver in club decision making.

UA obviously has good data on who has holds club membership, and what percentage in what cities are flying to help determine when it makes sense to open more.


Clubs are busy but IMO not as busy as they were at times in 2018-2019 during the most recent peak, especially with reduced seating. Definitely the case at EWR. UA also probably has insight on the mix of club members/people with lounge access actually flying, and I would assume the ratio is quite a bit lower than normal.

Anecdotally the crowd skews leisure and I suspect outstation clubs (besides vacation destinations like MCO, FLL, LAS) would be ghost towns if reopened now.

I did note that Bondar stated he expects the UC network to have more locations post-pandemic than it did pre-pandemic. I can see it getting there with a reopened PHX (T3 move happened pre-pandemic and lounge wasn't ready), MSY (opened as the pandemic was exploding in Europe), DEN A concourse and new EWR C-3. I know HNL and IAD renovations were in the pipeline, too, and TPA/MIA were always on my wish list...
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:01 pm

LAXintl wrote:
o Business breakdown at UA is about 1/3 shorthaul leisure, 1/3 corp biz, 1/3 international longhaul. The shorthaul leisure portion is back 100% essentially. Biz travel is down over 80% and really won't pickup until offices are staffed - unlikely large volume to start, but build into 2022. International longhaul at mercy of border closures - believe huge pent-up demand.


this would seem to me as their biggest problem. I don't know how UA can really effectively rebuild its network when 2/3 of its business is down 70 to 80%. Even if we get to a point where biz travel is down 30% and international longhaul is down 20%, which I think is quite likely given the size of their TPAC network, it's still hard for them to get back to pre-COVID revenue level.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:35 pm

codc10 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I saw that but I was not asking about the Polaris lounges, I was more interested in United Clubs. Polaris is for international and demand is not back yet but domestic demand is.


Reference was to all clubs. They said demand would drive their reopening.

Today domestic biz travel is still down 80%+ for United, which certainly must be a key driver in club decision making.

UA obviously has good data on who has holds club membership, and what percentage in what cities are flying to help determine when it makes sense to open more.


Clubs are busy but IMO not as busy as they were at times in 2018-2019 during the most recent peak, especially with reduced seating. Definitely the case at EWR. UA also probably has insight on the mix of club members/people with lounge access actually flying, and I would assume the ratio is quite a bit lower than normal.

Anecdotally the crowd skews leisure and I suspect outstation clubs (besides vacation destinations like MCO, FLL, LAS) would be ghost towns if reopened now.

I did note that Bondar stated he expects the UC network to have more locations post-pandemic than it did pre-pandemic. I can see it getting there with a reopened PHX (T3 move happened pre-pandemic and lounge wasn't ready), MSY (opened as the pandemic was exploding in Europe), DEN A concourse and new EWR C-3. I know HNL and IAD renovations were in the pipeline, too, and TPA/MIA were always on my wish list...

I think the Clubs feel the effect of fewer banks, or lack of rolling banks. UA is probably looking at it as bursts of business, and lulls in between. I think ORD, and IAH will see the biggest changes soon. DEN only has 2 clubs, and they're both open. I hope they have plans to open one on A in the near future.
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:47 pm

cosyr wrote:
I hope they have plans to open one on A in the near future.


I believe a new club on the mezzanine level will open when United moves into the A-West concourse.
 
joeljack
Posts: 697
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 12:38 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:50 pm

codc10 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
joeljack wrote:
I saw that but I was not asking about the Polaris lounges, I was more interested in United Clubs. Polaris is for international and demand is not back yet but domestic demand is.


Reference was to all clubs. They said demand would drive their reopening.

Today domestic biz travel is still down 80%+ for United, which certainly must be a key driver in club decision making.

UA obviously has good data on who has holds club membership, and what percentage in what cities are flying to help determine when it makes sense to open more.


Clubs are busy but IMO not as busy as they were at times in 2018-2019 during the most recent peak, especially with reduced seating. Definitely the case at EWR. UA also probably has insight on the mix of club members/people with lounge access actually flying, and I would assume the ratio is quite a bit lower than normal.

Anecdotally the crowd skews leisure and I suspect outstation clubs (besides vacation destinations like MCO, FLL, LAS) would be ghost towns if reopened now.

I did note that Bondar stated he expects the UC network to have more locations post-pandemic than it did pre-pandemic. I can see it getting there with a reopened PHX (T3 move happened pre-pandemic and lounge wasn't ready), MSY (opened as the pandemic was exploding in Europe), DEN A concourse and new EWR C-3. I know HNL and IAD renovations were in the pipeline, too, and TPA/MIA were always on my wish list...


I know this is one time of day but Monday morning at ORD:
-Club was VERY crowded. No seat blocking...lots of laptops being used (business travelers).
-ORD Club was also very crowded last week as well, must have been a line of 50 people to get in the door (took 5-7 minutes to get in).
-I was on a 50 seat CRJ-550 ORD-OMA. First Class (10 seats) were all full and I was number 9 on upgrade list as a United Gold on a $900 ticket. Between the upgrade list and the first class cabin, about half the plane with Elite or more (pretty standard pre-covid from lots of experience)
-Prices were terrible, booked 2 weeks in advance too. Flight full.
-At Omaha Airport, the place was a zoo, looked just like it used to look pre-covid in the Southwest/ United terminal.
-Just looked at a trip to Nashville early May about 10 days out. Good times were well over $1,000. Had to book American unfortunately for a fraction of the price.

I don't disagree, the outstation clubs could be empty but they need to get additional lounges opened at their hubs. ORD should have 3 open, F, B and C and keep the second B one closed for now.
 
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janders
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
this would seem to me as their biggest problem. I don't know how UA can really effectively rebuild its network when 2/3 of its business is down 70 to 80%. Even if we get to a point where biz travel is down 30% and international longhaul is down 20%, which I think is quite likely given the size of their TPAC network, it's still hard for them to get back to pre-COVID revenue level.


Imo there is a long way to go, and like Fed Chair Powell stated today in his speech we will have a different economy in the U.S. post pandemic.

Once the CARES crutches come off, airlines like United will have to adjust to the new reality and reinvent themselves be it their network, products, etc. The old corporate travel and international gravy train might underperform for an extended period, so might need to play a new game.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:52 pm

joeljack wrote:
codc10 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:

Reference was to all clubs. They said demand would drive their reopening.

Today domestic biz travel is still down 80%+ for United, which certainly must be a key driver in club decision making.

UA obviously has good data on who has holds club membership, and what percentage in what cities are flying to help determine when it makes sense to open more.


Clubs are busy but IMO not as busy as they were at times in 2018-2019 during the most recent peak, especially with reduced seating. Definitely the case at EWR. UA also probably has insight on the mix of club members/people with lounge access actually flying, and I would assume the ratio is quite a bit lower than normal.

Anecdotally the crowd skews leisure and I suspect outstation clubs (besides vacation destinations like MCO, FLL, LAS) would be ghost towns if reopened now.

I did note that Bondar stated he expects the UC network to have more locations post-pandemic than it did pre-pandemic. I can see it getting there with a reopened PHX (T3 move happened pre-pandemic and lounge wasn't ready), MSY (opened as the pandemic was exploding in Europe), DEN A concourse and new EWR C-3. I know HNL and IAD renovations were in the pipeline, too, and TPA/MIA were always on my wish list...


I know this is one time of day but Monday morning at ORD:
-Club was VERY crowded. No seat blocking...lots of laptops being used (business travelers).
-ORD Club was also very crowded last week as well, must have been a line of 50 people to get in the door (took 5-7 minutes to get in).
-I was on a 50 seat CRJ-550 ORD-OMA. First Class (10 seats) were all full and I was number 9 on upgrade list as a United Gold on a $900 ticket. Between the upgrade list and the first class cabin, about half the plane with Elite or more (pretty standard pre-covid from lots of experience)
-Prices were terrible, booked 2 weeks in advance too. Flight full.
-At Omaha Airport, the place was a zoo, looked just like it used to look pre-covid in the Southwest/ United terminal.
-Just looked at a trip to Nashville early May about 10 days out. Good times were well over $1,000. Had to book American unfortunately for a fraction of the price.

I don't disagree, the outstation clubs could be empty but they need to get additional lounges opened at their hubs. ORD should have 3 open, F, B and C and keep the second B one closed for now.

I would respect them more if they just came out and said its a cost cutting measure and we need to continue to control our costs until this thing is over. Demand - especially at hubs is not the issue.
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:24 pm

janders wrote:
tphuang wrote:
this would seem to me as their biggest problem. I don't know how UA can really effectively rebuild its network when 2/3 of its business is down 70 to 80%. Even if we get to a point where biz travel is down 30% and international longhaul is down 20%, which I think is quite likely given the size of their TPAC network, it's still hard for them to get back to pre-COVID revenue level.


Imo there is a long way to go, and like Fed Chair Powell stated today in his speech we will have a different economy in the U.S. post pandemic.

Once the CARES crutches come off, airlines like United will have to adjust to the new reality and reinvent themselves be it their network, products, etc. The old corporate travel and international gravy train might underperform for an extended period, so might need to play a new game.



This is coming from the same speech where he made the comment about housing still being affordable, right? :scratchchin:

All this rhetoric about the "new economy", "new normal", "this changes 'everything'" etc... seems to be flying in the face of a lot of things I'm seeing right now. Big tech giants are like Google are currently putting in plans to have employees return to the office, gas demand in the US and China is returning to normal, and if traffic around the Seattle region is an indication, it seems other companies are following suit.

Therefore, I don't think UA needs to rebrand itself as the next G4, and fly a bunch of 1993-96 built A320's to leisure destinations in FL. Business/international will come back, but there likely will be some permanent damage on the biz side (10-20% reduction from my gut). How UA responds is the milluon dollar question.

EDIT - another thing that flies in the face of the "new economy" rhetoric is the fact that the US still relies on the same global (read: foreign) supply chain it did pre-pandemic. While sales and financial meetings will likely stay virtual, companies in the US still need to visit contractors' manufacturing facilities on occasion.
 
codc10
Posts: 3203
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Wed Apr 28, 2021 11:56 pm

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
janders wrote:
tphuang wrote:
this would seem to me as their biggest problem. I don't know how UA can really effectively rebuild its network when 2/3 of its business is down 70 to 80%. Even if we get to a point where biz travel is down 30% and international longhaul is down 20%, which I think is quite likely given the size of their TPAC network, it's still hard for them to get back to pre-COVID revenue level.


Imo there is a long way to go, and like Fed Chair Powell stated today in his speech we will have a different economy in the U.S. post pandemic.

Once the CARES crutches come off, airlines like United will have to adjust to the new reality and reinvent themselves be it their network, products, etc. The old corporate travel and international gravy train might underperform for an extended period, so might need to play a new game.



This is coming from the same speech where he made the comment about housing still being affordable, right? :scratchchin:

All this rhetoric about the "new economy", "new normal", "this changes 'everything'" etc... seems to be flying in the face of a lot of things I'm seeing right now. Big tech giants are like Google are currently putting in plans to have employees return to the office, gas demand in the US and China is returning to normal, and if traffic around the Seattle region is an indication, it seems other companies are following suit.

Therefore, I don't think UA needs to rebrand itself as the next G4, and fly a bunch of 1993-96 built A320's to leisure destinations in FL. Business/international will come back, but there likely will be some permanent damage on the biz side (10-20% reduction from my gut). How UA responds is the milluon dollar question.

EDIT - another thing that flies in the face of the "new economy" rhetoric is the fact that the US still relies on the same global (read: foreign) supply chain it did pre-pandemic. While sales and financial meetings will likely stay virtual, companies in the US still need to visit contractors' facilities on occasion.


I too am less bearish than many on the long term prospects of this "new normal". I would expect additional workplace flexibility in the white collar economy, and more in the way of "soft" changes like office culture, but eventually, business travelers are going to be back on the road. Trips might be staffed differently, and purposes of travel may change, but competitive forces will dictate an eventual resumption of substantial in-person business.

This moment is a unique opportunity, and needs to be captured, for airlines wishing to gain footholds in markets and traffic flows it may have been shut out of in the past.

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