I don’t think you can look at it that narrowly. The issue is whether JetBlue is gaining marketshare during this time that will put them in a better position for recovery. If I had to guess, the proportion of JetBlue flights to UAA NYC flights is much higher than it was pre-pandemic.
But maybe UA isn’t worried because UA has a lot more room to ramp up and JetBlue is pretty much operating at full.
There isn't much marketshare to be gained right now in NYC area. It isn't that United doesn't take B6 seriously because they do take them seriously but at this particular point in time they are no threat to UA at EWR. I think what United is looking at right now in 2021 pertaining to JetBlue are two things; first JetBlue has already reactivated most of its fleet and their fleet utilization is pretty good. Secondly JetBlue in 2021 will only take delivery of 17 aircraft. For JetBlue to really give UA a fight in 2021 they would need pull resources from other markets and routes to put them in EWR and that simply hasn't happened. There are some UA employees and people on this site who are looking 2, 3, 4 or even 5 years down the road and saying United needs to stop JetBlue at EWR now in 2021. This is ridiculous and would waste resources that could be put to better use at a hub like DEN or IAH where WN does pose a serious threat now in 2021.
United is taking the threat seriously and on every call and every town hall whenever EWR and JetBlue is brought up the response is we will fight and defend EWR, but right now JetBlue poses no threat. But what people continue to selectively hear is JetBlue poses no threat, which is not what United is saying.
Both United and JetBlue are going to have some difficult decisions to make in the future. How much can United grow at JFK 3-5 years down the road without damaging our EWR operations. And vise versa how much can JetBlue grow at EWR without damaging their JFK operations. Keep in mind because of the NEA with AA and the agreement with the DOT, JetBlue has capacity requirements they must hit at JFK starting in 2022 or risk loosing slots. The last thing JetBlue wants is loose slots at JFK because that only opens the door for Delta Airlines.
Saying JetBlue isn't a threat now
does not mean United isn't preparing to battle it out in 2022, 2023, or 2024. In fact on the call we had this week when talking about EWR and JetBlue UA did note the aircraft we have in storage, the number I gave earlier does not include any of the used aircraft UA has taken delivery of since January 2020 (some will enter service others will be parted out). And UA noted the narrowbody deliveries we are expecting in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 so we are not falling behind in the NYC market. But at the same time we are not going to flood the EWR market in April of 2021 with excess capacity that isn't needed simply because we are trying to keep JetBlue out of EWR, 40 flights v.s. 175. By the way over at JFK JetBlue isn't even operating 100 flights daily out of that airport right now. Once the industry really gets into the recovery for JetBlue to really defend JFK against Delta and get JFK back to pre-pandemic levels while maintaining the network they've built across this country during the pandemic they are going to need quite a few aircraft deliveries beginning in 2022. I don't work for JetBlue so I can't speak to their 2022 delivery schedule but United continues to prepare for 2022 and beyond and we will be ready with the resources needed to respond at EWR.