Maintenance Update:
N2749U (Boeing 777-300ER) is scheduled to ferry from LAX to SFO (UA2740/15) for scheduled maintenance entry.

Polaris Update:
N27903 (Boeing 787-8) is scheduled to ferry from SFO to NRT (UA2769/15) for Polaris seating configuration. Aircraft will ferry to XMN after NRT.

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Should we expect the June schedule this week or am I being too optimistic?

Yep should be released any day now.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Should we expect the June schedule this week or am I being too optimistic?

Yep should be released any day now.

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

drerx7 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Should we expect the June schedule this week or am I being too optimistic?

Yep should be released any day now.

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

I would not do that at all. They’re gonna be flexible with the changes. If you wanna get really good prices book soon before they update. I have seen routes go from $70 to $600+ in a day.

drerx7 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Should we expect the June schedule this week or am I being too optimistic?

Yep should be released any day now.

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

I would estimate June is around 93% done it looks like the last major hub they have to work on is EWR. Although some line stations destinations out of EWR have been updated (reduced frequency) they are still working on making sure they match capacity to demand out of NYC. If your travel plans don't include EWR then for the most part June's long haul, short haul, and domestic schedule has been published. However (I feel like I have to say this so people can't come back at me later) there may still be reductions in the schedule 3 or 4 weeks out if capacity outpaces demand .

Nicknuzzii wrote:

drerx7 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Yep should be released any day now.

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

I would not do that at all. They’re gonna be flexible with the changes. If you wanna get really good prices book soon before they update. I have seen routes go from $70 to $600+ in a day.

This 100%... if you're price-sensitive, book in advance and prepare to be flexible when the schedules change.

On the other hand, if you're schedule-sensitive and not necessarily as concerned about price (e.g., business travelers that are slowly returning to the skies... nothing significant yet but my business travel has resumed and anecdotally I notice others are opening up to it) then it's best to wait until the final schedules are released 4-6 weeks out.

jayunited wrote:

@sldispatcher I know UA has been publishing an updated June schedule and so far DEN-SHV-DEN is still on the schedule, keep those fingers crossed you just might finally get your wish.

Looks like it didn't make the final June cut

Nicknuzzii wrote:

drerx7 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Yep should be released any day now.

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

I would not do that at all. They’re gonna be flexible with the changes. If you wanna get really good prices book soon before they update. I have seen routes go from $70 to $600+ in a day.

It’s normally an inventory quirk, when a new flight is loaded, airlines release the highest airfare buckets first. It doesn't normally happen with the ULCCs or LCCs, but it does with the US3. It’s normally not a problem since pre-covid the US3 updated schedules on the weekends when few people would be booking anyway.

That being said, UA's fares have been very high on many routes close-in since they are flying so little relative to demand, so expect high fares if you wait too long. I read that 40% of UA's ORD flights were going out at LF at or above 90%.

jayunited wrote:

drerx7 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Yep should be released any day now.

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

I would estimate June is around 93% done it looks like the last major hub they have to work on is EWR. Although some line stations destinations out of EWR have been updated (reduced frequency) they are still working on making sure they match capacity to demand out of NYC. If your travel plans don't include EWR then for the most part June's long haul, short haul, and domestic schedule has been published. However (I feel like I have to say this so people can't come back at me later) there may still be reductions in the schedule 3 or 4 weeks out if capacity outpaces demand .

Im assuming youre referring just long haul or international flights right?

jayunited wrote:

drerx7 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Yep should be released any day now.

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

I would estimate June is around 93% done it looks like the last major hub they have to work on is EWR. Although some line stations destinations out of EWR have been updated (reduced frequency) they are still working on making sure they match capacity to demand out of NYC. If your travel plans don't include EWR then for the most part June's long haul, short haul, and domestic schedule has been published. However (I feel like I have to say this so people can't come back at me later) there may still be reductions in the schedule 3 or 4 weeks out if capacity outpaces demand .

I realize you say 93% done, but I am shocked because ORD-STL June 7th is showing the old schedule in 2019, 9 daily.

Right now during Pandemic we see 5 daily, 2 on slow days (Tuesday or Saturday as an example).

I think it's great if UA is returning to 9 Daily, maybe to respond to F9 starting ORD-STL and maybe hold off on WN announcing ORD-STL?!

Hahaha, working from home for UA/UGE in Chicago affords me to travel home a lot and ORD-STL is my route but the schedule has been so bad I fly ORD-CGI often!

Hope the 9 Daily sticks though I won't hold my breath!

Alex

Btw for those that don't know, you can see the final June schedule on Unitedcargo, the UA.com schedule is not accurate yet:

Go to the tracking & schedules tab and click on find schedules.

Unitedcargo has the schedule normally days before it shows up on ua.com. This is what I've been doing to track schedules since COVID broke out.

Some IAH markets haven't been updated yet for June.

Example that affects me... IAH-MSY, still the dummy schedule showing 8X all A320.

So perhaps tweaks are still being made. Usually updates are loaded on weekends.

There are surely more changes coming for the June schedule currently for sale. I note on virtually every flight I review that is operated by 737-900 equipment, the full 20 first class seats are not authorized for sale, either only 16 and usually 13 are authorized at this point. Same is happening for the A320 fleet - I don't see flights where all 12 first seats are for sale, usually only 10. At the very least there will be changes to the final equipment type allocated to a particular flight.

Midwestindy wrote:

Btw for those that don't know, you can see the final June schedule on Unitedcargo, the UA.com schedule is not accurate yet:

Go to the tracking & schedules tab and click on find schedules.

Unitedcargo has the schedule normally days before it shows up on ua.com. This is what I've been doing to track schedules since COVID broke out.

Looks like more hot garbage. AA is going big - United seems content on giving up market share. We'll see who's strategy comes out on top.

mmahpeel wrote:

There are surely more changes coming for the June schedule currently for sale. I note on virtually every flight I review that is operated by 737-900 equipment, the full 20 first class seats are not authorized for sale, either only 16 and usually 13 are authorized at this point. Same is happening for the A320 fleet - I don't see flights where all 12 first seats are for sale, usually only 10. At the very least there will be changes to the final equipment type allocated to a particular flight.

The A320 fleet, if you are including all 3 models, A319/A320/A321, have 12/16/20 FC seats respectively.

Scarebus34 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Btw for those that don't know, you can see the final June schedule on Unitedcargo, the UA.com schedule is not accurate yet:

Go to the tracking & schedules tab and click on find schedules.

Unitedcargo has the schedule normally days before it shows up on ua.com. This is what I've been doing to track schedules since COVID broke out.

Looks like more hot garbage. AA is going big - United seems content on giving up market share. We'll see who's strategy comes out on top.

ORD, IAH, & DEN aren't too bad. There are quite a few frequency increases from those in June, but for the most part it is still small relative to what AA & WN, and likely DL have planned.

Scarebus34 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Btw for those that don't know, you can see the final June schedule on Unitedcargo, the UA.com schedule is not accurate yet:

Go to the tracking & schedules tab and click on find schedules.

Unitedcargo has the schedule normally days before it shows up on ua.com. This is what I've been doing to track schedules since COVID broke out.

Looks like more hot garbage. AA is going big - United seems content on giving up market share. We'll see who's strategy comes out on top.

I swear, it seems the only thing coming out of UA is social justice items and Scott's only focus.

CALMSP wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Btw for those that don't know, you can see the final June schedule on Unitedcargo, the UA.com schedule is not accurate yet:

Go to the tracking & schedules tab and click on find schedules.

Unitedcargo has the schedule normally days before it shows up on ua.com. This is what I've been doing to track schedules since COVID broke out.

Looks like more hot garbage. AA is going big - United seems content on giving up market share. We'll see who's strategy comes out on top.

I swear, it seems the only thing coming out of UA is social justice items and Scott's only focus.

UA is coming out of this with no actual fleet retirement, although some of the long term parked ones are unlikely to ever come back.

UA is coming out of this with all of its pilots current and hiring new pilots again to replace the retired ones.

UA is coming out of this burning less cash than DL and AA.

UA will have a lot less debt coming out of this than AA.

And UA had to deal with its hubs been hit harder in demand than the other 2.

When demand is actually back, UA will be able to meet that demand. AA and DL will need to work really hard to get back to their pre-COVID fleet size and pilot count. Both AA and DL will be facing a lot of costs in the coming month in retraining the pilots that got furloughed or displaced.

What is UA losing by not fighting as hard for the low yielding leisure traffic that AA has been chasing?

audidudi wrote:

mmahpeel wrote:

There are surely more changes coming for the June schedule currently for sale. I note on virtually every flight I review that is operated by 737-900 equipment, the full 20 first class seats are not authorized for sale, either only 16 and usually 13 are authorized at this point. Same is happening for the A320 fleet - I don't see flights where all 12 first seats are for sale, usually only 10. At the very least there will be changes to the final equipment type allocated to a particular flight.

The A320 fleet, if you are including all 3 models, A319/A320/A321, have 12/16/20 FC seats respectively.

UA doesn't have any 321 yet. The 319/320 fleet have 12 FC seats (there might be just a few 319 with 8 seats left but not sure).

Midwestindy wrote:

jayunited wrote:

@sldispatcher I know UA has been publishing an updated June schedule and so far DEN-SHV-DEN is still on the schedule, keep those fingers crossed you just might finally get your wish.

Looks like it didn't make the final June cut

Nicknuzzii wrote:

drerx7 wrote:

Thanks for the update - I literally follow this thread to know when to shop for my UA flights. I am literally waiting to book an itinerary right now based upon when this thread signals the all clear.

I would not do that at all. They’re gonna be flexible with the changes. If you wanna get really good prices book soon before they update. I have seen routes go from $70 to $600+ in a day.

It’s normally an inventory quirk, when a new flight is loaded, airlines release the highest airfare buckets first. It doesn't normally happen with the ULCCs or LCCs, but it does with the US3. It’s normally not a problem since pre-covid the US3 updated schedules on the weekends when few people would be booking anyway.

That being said, UA's fares have been very high on many routes close-in since they are flying so little relative to demand, so expect high fares if you wait too long. I read that 40% of UA's ORD flights were going out at LF at or above 90%.

Thanks. Although I do have my personal preferences, it is important that the airline be healthy and robust.
Heck, I was just happy to see a beverage cart in coach from IAH to DEN today.

Little pieces/little steps. One at a time.

tphuang wrote:

What is UA losing by not fighting as hard for the low yielding leisure traffic that AA has been chasing?

UA is fighting pretty hard for that traffic.

https://hub.united.com/2021-03-25-unite ... 05573.html

https://hub.united.com/2020-10-16-unite ... 28755.html

https://hub.united.com/2020-10-02-unite ... 90810.html

https://hub.united.com/2020-08-12-adjus ... 62841.html

psa1011 wrote:

I've been seeing Wiki references to supposed new routes by UA, however no source is provided, and none is for sale. I can't tell if this is insider knowledge that someone within UA is teasing or just a troll. Here are just a few I'm seeing scheduled to start during 2021:

SFO-ITO/LGB/COS
DEN-LGB

The edits to the Wikipedia articles showing these routes were done by an unregistered user: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:157.131.123.208

As you will note from the user’s talk page, there seem to be some issues with this user’s edits. I would suggest in the absence of anything from the airline, the most likely explanation is wishful thinking.

V/F

Thanks for the replies, I am more concerned about booking a widebody and it ends up being a 320 or 739. I am specifically looking at SJU - EWR, JFK-LAX, LAX - IAH. I know the JFK - LAX is solid. The others have alot of ambiguity seemingly in them. Thanks again for all the responses yall.

tphuang wrote:

CALMSP wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

Looks like more hot garbage. AA is going big - United seems content on giving up market share. We'll see who's strategy comes out on top.

I swear, it seems the only thing coming out of UA is social justice items and Scott's only focus.

UA is coming out of this with no actual fleet retirement, although some of the long term parked ones are unlikely to ever come back.

UA is coming out of this with all of its pilots current and hiring new pilots again to replace the retired ones.

UA is coming out of this burning less cash than DL and AA.

UA will have a lot less debt coming out of this than AA.

And UA had to deal with its hubs been hit harder in demand than the other 2.

When demand is actually back, UA will be able to meet that demand. AA and DL will need to work really hard to get back to their pre-COVID fleet size and pilot count. Both AA and DL will be facing a lot of costs in the coming month in retraining the pilots that got furloughed or displaced.

What is UA losing by not fighting as hard for the low yielding leisure traffic that AA has been chasing?

Careful there, "when demand is actually back" is a tricky term.

For AA's hubs (MIA, PHX, CLT, DFW, e.t.c) demand has been back.

And UA not serving leisure passengers is a problem UA admits it has, especially in the coming years (see below):

jayunited wrote:

Domestic recovery problems UA will face: Pre-pandemic a large majority of UA focus was on business travelers. One of UA's biggest complaints from their business travelers was how difficult if not nearly impossible it was for them to reach Florida and the Southeast if they were going on vacation or to their summer/winter home, or 2nd home. For the most part UA could ignore those complaints because we had a robust domestic business schedule and an unbeatable long haul international schedule. However United admits the lack of options forced customers to turn to Delta, Southwest and even American for their leisure travel to Florida and the Southeast something UA was willing to accept pre-pandemic as the cost of doing business. The conundrum United now admits we face is once we really enter the recovery phase in 2022 or 2023 (no one really know when business travel and long haul travel will come back) is this, how does United maintain the leisure schedule to Florida and the Southeast and still provide 16x daily nonstops Monday thru Friday on a route like ORD-LGA for example?

tphuang wrote:

CALMSP wrote:

Scarebus34 wrote:

Looks like more hot garbage. AA is going big - United seems content on giving up market share. We'll see who's strategy comes out on top.

I swear, it seems the only thing coming out of UA is social justice items and Scott's only focus.

UA is coming out of this with no actual fleet retirement, although some of the long term parked ones are unlikely to ever come back.

UA is coming out of this with all of its pilots current and hiring new pilots again to replace the retired ones.

UA is coming out of this burning less cash than DL and AA.

UA will have a lot less debt coming out of this than AA.

And UA had to deal with its hubs been hit harder in demand than the other 2.

When demand is actually back, UA will be able to meet that demand. AA and DL will need to work really hard to get back to their pre-COVID fleet size and pilot count. Both AA and DL will be facing a lot of costs in the coming month in retraining the pilots that got furloughed or displaced.

What is UA losing by not fighting as hard for the low yielding leisure traffic that AA has been chasing?

I don't know why some folks here are getting so worked up market share. It's not like market share is a fixed, permanent thing. Market share also doesn't pay the bills.

Summer 2021 is wild and unpredictable. If planners play it safe, maybe they leave a few dollars on the table but they come out the other end fine. If they flood the market with seats, maybe they make a pile of money or maybe they lose their shirts transporting people at a loss.

And all this reaction is about a schedule that isn't even finalized yet. Maybe we do end up with 8x 320s on IAH-MSY. Who knows?

If this is still happening in 2022, sure, get up in arms. But summer 2021 is still travel in the era of pandemic uncertainty.

adamblang wrote:

tphuang wrote:

CALMSP wrote:

I swear, it seems the only thing coming out of UA is social justice items and Scott's only focus.

UA is coming out of this with no actual fleet retirement, although some of the long term parked ones are unlikely to ever come back.

UA is coming out of this with all of its pilots current and hiring new pilots again to replace the retired ones.

UA is coming out of this burning less cash than DL and AA.

UA will have a lot less debt coming out of this than AA.

And UA had to deal with its hubs been hit harder in demand than the other 2.

When demand is actually back, UA will be able to meet that demand. AA and DL will need to work really hard to get back to their pre-COVID fleet size and pilot count. Both AA and DL will be facing a lot of costs in the coming month in retraining the pilots that got furloughed or displaced.

What is UA losing by not fighting as hard for the low yielding leisure traffic that AA has been chasing?

I don't know why some folks here are getting so worked up market share. It's not like market share is a fixed, permanent thing. Market share also doesn't pay the bills.

Summer 2021 is wild and unpredictable. If planners play it safe, maybe they leave a few dollars on the table but they come out the other end fine. If they flood the market with seats, maybe they make a pile of money or maybe they lose their shirts transporting people at a loss.

And all this reaction is about a schedule that isn't even finalized yet. Maybe we do end up with 8x 320s on IAH-MSY. Who knows?

If this is still happening in 2022, sure, get up in arms. But summer 2021 is still travel in the era of pandemic uncertainty.

Although I challenged the UA leisure chase (and I'm not sure UA is beating DL on losses/profits), I agree. The market share that is more fixed in nature is business travelers where they have status, miles, etc. The market share being chased now isn't something that will have lasting strength IMO as leisure travelers are inherently more price sensitive. The US carriers are taking various approaches, so it really will be interesting to see if any were better coming out of this pandemic.

If I had to pick an approach, I do think that those airlines that made significant structural changes will come out stronger (e.g., DL and AS fleet simplification). If business travel comes back, DL and AS will simply reallocate leisure capacity to serve the (likely) more lucrative business travel market.

drerx7 wrote:

Thanks for the replies, I am more concerned about booking a widebody and it ends up being a 320 or 739. I am specifically looking at SJU - EWR, JFK-LAX, LAX - IAH. I know the JFK - LAX is solid. The others have alot of ambiguity seemingly in them. Thanks again for all the responses yall.

EWR-SJU gets a widebody every day because of lucrative pharma freight contracts from manufacturers in Puerto Rico, some of which require pallets and temperature-controlled containers. Monday/Thursday/Sunday is UA1010/1029, and Tuesday/Wednesday/Friday/Sunday is UA2143/1173. The 777 comes off starting in June, to be replaced with the 767-400.

JFK-LAX will keep a 767 in all but the most unusual circumstances. IAH-LAX might be more variable

adamblang wrote:

tphuang wrote:

CALMSP wrote:

I swear, it seems the only thing coming out of UA is social justice items and Scott's only focus.

UA is coming out of this with no actual fleet retirement, although some of the long term parked ones are unlikely to ever come back.

UA is coming out of this with all of its pilots current and hiring new pilots again to replace the retired ones.

UA is coming out of this burning less cash than DL and AA.

UA will have a lot less debt coming out of this than AA.

And UA had to deal with its hubs been hit harder in demand than the other 2.

When demand is actually back, UA will be able to meet that demand. AA and DL will need to work really hard to get back to their pre-COVID fleet size and pilot count. Both AA and DL will be facing a lot of costs in the coming month in retraining the pilots that got furloughed or displaced.

What is UA losing by not fighting as hard for the low yielding leisure traffic that AA has been chasing?

I don't know why some folks here are getting so worked up market share. It's not like market share is a fixed, permanent thing. Market share also doesn't pay the bills.

Summer 2021 is wild and unpredictable. If planners play it safe, maybe they leave a few dollars on the table but they come out the other end fine. If they flood the market with seats, maybe they make a pile of money or maybe they lose their shirts transporting people at a loss.

And all this reaction is about a schedule that isn't even finalized yet. Maybe we do end up with 8x 320s on IAH-MSY. Who knows?

If this is still happening in 2022, sure, get up in arms. But summer 2021 is still travel in the era of pandemic uncertainty.

Market share may not pay the bills in the short term, but it is often a strategic investment. Regaining it can be very expensive if not impossible sometimes

gwrudolph wrote:

Market share may not pay the bills in the short term, but it is often a strategic investment. Regaining it can be very expensive if not impossible sometimes

But you are assuming market share gained today will be the same tomorrow. UA has gained market share in Florida, Mexico and Latin (Central) America, but will we hold on to that market share in 2022 or 2023 or give it up to go after more lucrative business/international traffic? Do you actually think summer of 2022 or 2023 American will utilize their 787s on routes to ANC, or utilize 777s on every JFK-MIA departure or have enough aircraft to hold on to whatever marketshare they are going after this summer if business and long haul international traffic picks up next summer. American announced a whole host of new flights many of them 1x weekly but in the TPG article the VP of network planning states they reason they can do that this year is because the government is covering their payroll. American has decided to go all in and utilize every aircraft in their fleet but according to their most recent 1K filing they expect their Q1 burn rate to be $27 million dollars a day. Not all of that $27 million is core burn but their core burn is expected to be much higher than DL or UA in Q1. United expects Q1 revenue to be down 66% vs 2019 AA expects revenue to be down 62% vs 2019 but AA is burning cash on their core operations chasing bottom of the barrel fares. Like I said in the AA thread it is to early to crown a summer 2021 winner between the US3, but it is obvious AA has decided it is better for them to go all in since they don't have to worry about employee cost. UA even with more liquidity than AA is focusing on having enough capacity to meet demand, conserving cash by keeping the core "operational" burn rate in the positive throughout the summer. I get the feeling UA is operating under the impression there will be no 4th pay check protection program, if this ends up being the case now is the time right size the ship not October 1st when the PPP runs out again. As much as we all want to believe the crisis is over because more people are flying for airlines like AA, DL and UA this isn't over not by a long shot. For LCCs/ULCCs the crisis is probably over for them. So the question for UA is do you continue to burn cash now chasing every single leisure customer and risk not having enough cash to fight later in 2022 and 2023? Or do you conserve your cash today because you realize you've going to need it in 2022 and 2023 when there is no pay check protection program covering employee cost.

AA, DL, and UA are all taking a different strategic path for summer 2021 hoping their individual path will set them up for success as the industry enters fall 2021 but more importantly winter 2021/2022. I don't which airline is making the right decision, I don't know if we will look back in 2022/2023 and say United you should have swung for the fences in 2021 and followed American lead. Or if American will look back and say we should have focused more on lowering our cash burn while the PPP was in effect.

Midwestindy wrote:

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Should we expect the June schedule this week or am I being too optimistic?

Yep should be released any day now.

Updated schedule up on ua.com

I know that AA is planning to fly 90% of their pre-COVID domestic capacity this summer and 80% of their international capacity (they are going to really be favoring Latin/South America and most of the cuts are centered around Asia and the UK). What percentage of the pre COVID capacity will UA be flying this summer?

jayunited wrote:

gwrudolph wrote:

Market share may not pay the bills in the short term, but it is often a strategic investment. Regaining it can be very expensive if not impossible sometimes

I get the feeling UA is operating under the impression there will be no 4th pay check protection program, if this ends up being the case now is the time right size the ship not October 1st when the PPP runs out again. As much as we all want to believe the crisis is over because more people are flying for airlines like AA, DL and UA this isn't over not by a long shot. For LCCs/ULCCs the crisis is probably over for them. So the question for UA is do you continue to burn cash now chasing every single leisure customer and risk not having enough cash to fight later in 2022 and 2023? Or do you conserve your cash today because you realize you've going to need it in 2022 and 2023 when there is no pay check protection program covering employee cost.

No airline will need a PPP in 2022 or 2023, let alone UA. Wall street consensus estimate is UAL will be EPS positive by Q4 of this year, and UA itself said they expect their 2023 margin to be higher than pre-covid.

https://ir.united.com/static-files/e4f5 ... d3e0c0269c
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... l/earnings

Midwestindy wrote:

jayunited wrote:

gwrudolph wrote:

Market share may not pay the bills in the short term, but it is often a strategic investment. Regaining it can be very expensive if not impossible sometimes

I get the feeling UA is operating under the impression there will be no 4th pay check protection program, if this ends up being the case now is the time right size the ship not October 1st when the PPP runs out again. As much as we all want to believe the crisis is over because more people are flying for airlines like AA, DL and UA this isn't over not by a long shot. For LCCs/ULCCs the crisis is probably over for them. So the question for UA is do you continue to burn cash now chasing every single leisure customer and risk not having enough cash to fight later in 2022 and 2023? Or do you conserve your cash today because you realize you've going to need it in 2022 and 2023 when there is no pay check protection program covering employee cost.

No airline will need a PPP in 2022 or 2023, let alone UA. Wall street consensus estimate is UAL will be EPS positive by Q4 of this year, and UA itself said they expect their 2023 margin to be higher than pre-covid.

https://ir.united.com/static-files/e4f5 ... d3e0c0269c
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/ ... l/earnings

Kirby himself has stated publicly that as long as there are no further setbacks they can put the talk about furloughs and layoffs “behind us.”

Midwestindy wrote:

Midwestindy wrote:

Nicknuzzii wrote:

Should we expect the June schedule this week or am I being too optimistic?

Yep should be released any day now.

Updated schedule up on ua.com

Slowly but surely they are adding back. Steady as she goes.

June is definitely starting to look better for UA then other months. @Jayunited, do you by chance have the departure # for EWR in June? Or all hubs if possible? That would be greatly appreciated!

Just looked at a few routes and it definitely seems like United is not wanting to necessarily fight others right now but is more so of trying more of off the beaten path capacity. Also very happy UA went a step ahead of AA and DL here in terms of timing. Funny how just last month I was scrambling after my KOA/HNL flights changed 3 weeks before and now my CUN flights almost 3 months out and I’m much more comfortable.

DEN is going to be rocking with traffic. IAH banks looking beefier for sure.

jayunited wrote:

gwrudolph wrote:

Market share may not pay the bills in the short term, but it is often a strategic investment. Regaining it can be very expensive if not impossible sometimes

But you are assuming market share gained today will be the same tomorrow. UA has gained market share in Florida, Mexico and Latin (Central) America, but will we hold on to that market share in 2022 or 2023 or give it up to go after more lucrative business/international traffic? Do you actually think summer of 2022 or 2023 American will utilize their 787s on routes to ANC, or utilize 777s on every JFK-MIA departure or have enough aircraft to hold on to whatever marketshare they are going after this summer if business and long haul international traffic picks up next summer. American announced a whole host of new flights many of them 1x weekly but in the TPG article the VP of network planning states they reason they can do that this year is because the government is covering their payroll. American has decided to go all in and utilize every aircraft in their fleet but according to their most recent 1K filing they expect their Q1 burn rate to be $27 million dollars a day. Not all of that $27 million is core burn but their core burn is expected to be much higher than DL or UA in Q1. United expects Q1 revenue to be down 66% vs 2019 AA expects revenue to be down 62% vs 2019 but AA is burning cash on their core operations chasing bottom of the barrel fares. Like I said in the AA thread it is to early to crown a summer 2021 winner between the US3, but it is obvious AA has decided it is better for them to go all in since they don't have to worry about employee cost. UA even with more liquidity than AA is focusing on having enough capacity to meet demand, conserving cash by keeping the core "operational" burn rate in the positive throughout the summer. I get the feeling UA is operating under the impression there will be no 4th pay check protection program, if this ends up being the case now is the time right size the ship not October 1st when the PPP runs out again. As much as we all want to believe the crisis is over because more people are flying for airlines like AA, DL and UA this isn't over not by a long shot. For LCCs/ULCCs the crisis is probably over for them. So the question for UA is do you continue to burn cash now chasing every single leisure customer and risk not having enough cash to fight later in 2022 and 2023? Or do you conserve your cash today because you realize you've going to need it in 2022 and 2023 when there is no pay check protection program covering employee cost.

AA, DL, and UA are all taking a different strategic path for summer 2021 hoping their individual path will set them up for success as the industry enters fall 2021 but more importantly winter 2021/2022. I don't which airline is making the right decision, I don't know if we will look back in 2022/2023 and say United you should have swung for the fences in 2021 and followed American lead. Or if American will look back and say we should have focused more on lowering our cash burn while the PPP was in effect.

I’m hoping United is swinging for profitability and stability first. To me, that will put the airline in a position of product strength, not dilution.

Purely anecdotal, but today was much more leaning to the ‘going to work’/‘business trip’ crowd on 2 of the 3 flights today than I have seen in 12 months.
I also want to remind the gallery that some of us in smaller spokes are used to paying high fares already for years.

Actually had a Skywest pilot come out before the last leg today on a CRJ200 and sincerely thank us for flying with United and helping to keep food on their table. Said he’s noticed the higher loads the last few weeks and just wanted to thank us. Classy.

I booked three June flights today before the schedule got updated (for Newark at least) and all of them ended up getting slightly changed (thankfully no issues). Looking now, the price for each of them shot up by $100-$300. Timed that right it seems.

kngkyle wrote:

I booked three June flights today before the schedule got updated (for Newark at least) and all of them ended up getting slightly changed (thankfully no issues). Looking now, the price for each of them shot up by $100-$300. Timed that right it seems.

Part of that is just how the booking engine handles new flights showing up. Usually the fare buckets are not completely loaded at the same time as the schedule gets pushed out. Those high fares just reflect the system figuring out what’s going on. I have noticed this on every legacy carrier for years, it takes a day or two for the fares to get updated.

Trying to book a flight back to NYC. (Want to fly UA to help get Premier Silver).

Noticing that prices are much higher than in the previous few months.

AmericanAir88 wrote:

Trying to book a flight back to NYC. (Want to fly UA to help get Premier Silver).

Noticing that prices are much higher than in the previous few months.

That’s what I’ve been saying too. I’m seeing SFO-DEN r/t pushing $500 in regular coach. In the last few months and pre-pandemic, it was usually somewhere between $240-$350. I wonder if they’re hiking up fares now that the pent up demand is about to burst.

intotheair wrote:

AmericanAir88 wrote:

Trying to book a flight back to NYC. (Want to fly UA to help get Premier Silver).

Noticing that prices are much higher than in the previous few months.

That’s what I’ve been saying too. I’m seeing SFO-DEN r/t pushing $500 in regular coach. In the last few months and pre-pandemic, it was usually somewhere between $240-$350. I wonder if they’re hiking up fares now that the pent up demand is about to burst.

That is quite expensive for a route between two hubs. Even 240-350 is high for economy. 500 r/t on UA has gotten me transcontinental first class seats during the pandemic.

I’d probably fly F9 on that SFO-DEN route as the fares would definitely be cheaper. F9 is probably 50 bucks r/t and I would take that in a stretch seat.

In terms of routes that were cancelled and now are back in June, I see IAH-RIC and IAD-PDX. Looking for others...

PSC-SFO is back. Looks like 2x daily but I didn’t look through the whole week.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

In terms of routes that were cancelled and now are back in June, I see IAH-RIC and IAD-PDX. Looking for others...

EWR-SMF is back as well.

Looks like AVL-EWR is back.

Looks like EWR-ATH/KEF is back too. I’m really surprised no EWR-GSP/GSO/SDF/MEM at all yet.

jetmatt777 wrote:

kngkyle wrote:

I booked three June flights today before the schedule got updated (for Newark at least) and all of them ended up getting slightly changed (thankfully no issues). Looking now, the price for each of them shot up by $100-$300. Timed that right it seems.

Part of that is just how the booking engine handles new flights showing up. Usually the fare buckets are not completely loaded at the same time as the schedule gets pushed out. Those high fares just reflect the system figuring out what’s going on. I have noticed this on every legacy carrier for years, it takes a day or two for the fares to get updated.

I really hope that's the case, because flights I've been looking at to CUN just jumped from around $800 r/t to $3500 for the last week of June! I had hoped that $800 was unrealistic and would come down to $500-600.

cosyr wrote:

jetmatt777 wrote:

kngkyle wrote:

I booked three June flights today before the schedule got updated (for Newark at least) and all of them ended up getting slightly changed (thankfully no issues). Looking now, the price for each of them shot up by $100-$300. Timed that right it seems.

Part of that is just how the booking engine handles new flights showing up. Usually the fare buckets are not completely loaded at the same time as the schedule gets pushed out. Those high fares just reflect the system figuring out what’s going on. I have noticed this on every legacy carrier for years, it takes a day or two for the fares to get updated.

I really hope that's the case, because flights I've been looking at to CUN just jumped from around $800 r/t to $3500 for the last week of June! I had hoped that $800 was unrealistic and would come down to $500-600.

Maybe, maybe not. Depends. As they consolidate flights, capacity is reduced and fares go up. Cancun flights were already booked pretty solidly. If they took one out, that will definitely drive up fares. Keep an eye on it.

I’d say the schedule is still being updated for some cities/markets. Example... there’s a 1600 departure on MSY-DEN on a 739, but the only inbound 739 that could make up that flight arrives MSY at 1605. Indeed the times on MSY-DEN look like the dummy schedule times as of June 3. But that’s just a small example. It’s probably 80-90% done, just some adjustments here and there.

The DEN-LHR and DEN-FRA stuck out for me, too.

I wonder if 9x DEN-IAH, 10x ORD-IAH, 10x LAX-IAH will stick.