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ChaseP
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:22 am

Storage Update:
N57862 (Boeing 757-300) is scheduled to ferry from ROW to GSO (UA2726/30) for heavy maintenance.

Maintenance Update:
N58101 (Boeing 757-200) is scheduled to ferry from DEN to ILN (UA2731/29) for C-Check maintenance.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:49 pm

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
janders wrote:
tphuang wrote:
this would seem to me as their biggest problem. I don't know how UA can really effectively rebuild its network when 2/3 of its business is down 70 to 80%. Even if we get to a point where biz travel is down 30% and international longhaul is down 20%, which I think is quite likely given the size of their TPAC network, it's still hard for them to get back to pre-COVID revenue level.


Imo there is a long way to go, and like Fed Chair Powell stated today in his speech we will have a different economy in the U.S. post pandemic.

Once the CARES crutches come off, airlines like United will have to adjust to the new reality and reinvent themselves be it their network, products, etc. The old corporate travel and international gravy train might underperform for an extended period, so might need to play a new game.



This is coming from the same speech where he made the comment about housing still being affordable, right? :scratchchin:

All this rhetoric about the "new economy", "new normal", "this changes 'everything'" etc... seems to be flying in the face of a lot of things I'm seeing right now. Big tech giants are like Google are currently putting in plans to have employees return to the office, gas demand in the US and China is returning to normal, and if traffic around the Seattle region is an indication, it seems other companies are following suit.

Therefore, I don't think UA needs to rebrand itself as the next G4, and fly a bunch of 1993-96 built A320's to leisure destinations in FL. Business/international will come back, but there likely will be some permanent damage on the biz side (10-20% reduction from my gut). How UA responds is the milluon dollar question.

EDIT - another thing that flies in the face of the "new economy" rhetoric is the fact that the US still relies on the same global (read: foreign) supply chain it did pre-pandemic. While sales and financial meetings will likely stay virtual, companies in the US still need to visit contractors' manufacturing facilities on occasion.


No one is saying United needs to completely rebrand itself what people are saying is if your business is going to be down 20-30% in the new normal an airline like United would absolutely need to find new ways of making money.

If we take a look at international long haul in particular destinations that are slot/frequency controlled like for example LHR and China, I think we are going to see UA employ to different strategies. I think starting in 2022 UA (if forced to do so) will utilize every LHR slot we have even if operating the route costs us money, the slot is to valuable to loose. Whereas to China I think UA will allow some frequencies to go dormant or may even return some frequencies because you are not going to see AA and DL all of sudden start fighting over additional tier 1 frequencies to China. Post-pandemic US-China frequencies will not be as valuable as they were pre-pandemic.

Pre-pandemic UA had a sizable daily operation between the US and China UA had even applied for daily double EWR-PVG. I don't think we will see daily double flights to China on UA return any time soon. And for the next 3-5 years it wouldn't surprise me if starting in 2022 UA's schedule to China looked something like this 1x daily SFO-/LAX/EWR-PVG, 1x daily SFO/EWR-PEK, 1x daily SFO-CTU while our ORD and IAD-China operations remain suspended. I think the same will ring true for example SFO-SIN, I think it will take a few years before that route returns daily double. When Singapore reopens fully to Americans I can see UA operating 1x daily SFO-SIN and operating 1x daily for the next 2-4 years. In the mean time where do we move that second 789 that we were sending daily to SIN, PVG or even IAD/ORD-PEK?

There are opportunities out there for UA both domestically and internationally what United has to figure out is once business traffic returns to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels where do we now utilize the other 20-30% of our resources that were pre-pandemic committed to business traffic/destinations but are no longer needed on those routes for the time being. This is where the reinvention comes into play, UA needs to find a way to expand the network into places that we have historically ignored because we were so laser focused on business traffic. If we are not going to do that than the only option for UA is to shrink the airline by 30-40% and we go back to old policy that every other UA CEO employed which was lets shrink our way into profitability. The difference is that isn't going to work this time.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:07 pm

Is the July schedule done?
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:12 pm

I just saw today that CX shrunk its staff again, because HKG traffic just isn't coming back at all. I remember seeing HKG having like the lowest traffic total just a few days ago. Even short haul international traffic is just not returning in that part of the world. The US/China relationship is at the lowest point it has been for a long time. It's unclear to me when the border will open up to foreigners without having to do a 2 week mandatory hotel stay. It's definitely not this year. Pre-COVID, HKG and PVG were probably 2 of the top 4 business markets from US to Asia. As long as America still has more than 30k new cases a day, borders to most Asian countries are simply not going to open without mandatory quarantine. It's not like those countries depend on American tourist $.

To combat that change in demand, I think UA probably needs to adjust its fleet to be more narrowbody heavy to capture an increasing share of domestic and Latam demand.
 
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drerx7
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:44 pm

They mentioned being bigger in Latin America due to demand...any notable change of gauge beyond 739s?
HOUSTON, TEXAS
 
avi8
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:04 pm

drerx7 wrote:
They mentioned being bigger in Latin America due to demand...any notable change of gauge beyond 739s?


Not sure, but many ppl in Guatemala where my family is from are delighted to now have daily EWR flights and almost daily LAX and IAD flights. Schedules are a lot more friendly depending on which hub you use as your connecting point.
avi8
 
ericm2031
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:33 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


No, June was just finished, July is still a placeholder.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:33 pm

jayunited wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
janders wrote:

Imo there is a long way to go, and like Fed Chair Powell stated today in his speech we will have a different economy in the U.S. post pandemic.

Once the CARES crutches come off, airlines like United will have to adjust to the new reality and reinvent themselves be it their network, products, etc. The old corporate travel and international gravy train might underperform for an extended period, so might need to play a new game.



This is coming from the same speech where he made the comment about housing still being affordable, right? :scratchchin:

All this rhetoric about the "new economy", "new normal", "this changes 'everything'" etc... seems to be flying in the face of a lot of things I'm seeing right now. Big tech giants are like Google are currently putting in plans to have employees return to the office, gas demand in the US and China is returning to normal, and if traffic around the Seattle region is an indication, it seems other companies are following suit.

Therefore, I don't think UA needs to rebrand itself as the next G4, and fly a bunch of 1993-96 built A320's to leisure destinations in FL. Business/international will come back, but there likely will be some permanent damage on the biz side (10-20% reduction from my gut). How UA responds is the milluon dollar question.

EDIT - another thing that flies in the face of the "new economy" rhetoric is the fact that the US still relies on the same global (read: foreign) supply chain it did pre-pandemic. While sales and financial meetings will likely stay virtual, companies in the US still need to visit contractors' manufacturing facilities on occasion.


No one is saying United needs to completely rebrand itself what people are saying is if your business is going to be down 20-30% in the new normal an airline like United would absolutely need to find new ways of making money.

If we take a look at international long haul in particular destinations that are slot/frequency controlled like for example LHR and China, I think we are going to see UA employ to different strategies. I think starting in 2022 UA (if forced to do so) will utilize every LHR slot we have even if operating the route costs us money, the slot is to valuable to loose. Whereas to China I think UA will allow some frequencies to go dormant or may even return some frequencies because you are not going to see AA and DL all of sudden start fighting over additional tier 1 frequencies to China. Post-pandemic US-China frequencies will not be as valuable as they were pre-pandemic.

Pre-pandemic UA had a sizable daily operation between the US and China UA had even applied for daily double EWR-PVG. I don't think we will see daily double flights to China on UA return any time soon. And for the next 3-5 years it wouldn't surprise me if starting in 2022 UA's schedule to China looked something like this 1x daily SFO-/LAX/EWR-PVG, 1x daily SFO/EWR-PEK, 1x daily SFO-CTU while our ORD and IAD-China operations remain suspended. I think the same will ring true for example SFO-SIN, I think it will take a few years before that route returns daily double. When Singapore reopens fully to Americans I can see UA operating 1x daily SFO-SIN and operating 1x daily for the next 2-4 years. In the mean time where do we move that second 789 that we were sending daily to SIN, PVG or even IAD/ORD-PEK?

There are opportunities out there for UA both domestically and internationally what United has to figure out is once business traffic returns to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels where do we now utilize the other 20-30% of our resources that were pre-pandemic committed to business traffic/destinations but are no longer needed on those routes for the time being. This is where the reinvention comes into play, UA needs to find a way to expand the network into places that we have historically ignored because we were so laser focused on business traffic. If we are not going to do that than the only option for UA is to shrink the airline by 30-40% and we go back to old policy that every other UA CEO employed which was lets shrink our way into profitability. The difference is that isn't going to work this time.

But there are a lot of short term changes that UA can do to adapt to the present and preserve for the future. In the last few years, 752 transatlantic flying has been upguaged left and right. Shifting some of those 763 flights back to 752's, 787's back to 763's, and move some of the free wide bodies to more domestic service. HI, CUN and FL could easily be the same number of flights as in 2019 with higher capacity, which would then free up the 738/9's to expand flights on some of the leisure routes that UA only had a couple of frequencies in the past. When business travel returns, it can all be shifted right back.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:39 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


No, June was just finished, July is still a placeholder.


July domestic is updated now on united.com
ORD & IND

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Pinto
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:49 pm

jayunited wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
janders wrote:

Imo there is a long way to go, and like Fed Chair Powell stated today in his speech we will have a different economy in the U.S. post pandemic.

Once the CARES crutches come off, airlines like United will have to adjust to the new reality and reinvent themselves be it their network, products, etc. The old corporate travel and international gravy train might underperform for an extended period, so might need to play a new game.



This is coming from the same speech where he made the comment about housing still being affordable, right? :scratchchin:

All this rhetoric about the "new economy", "new normal", "this changes 'everything'" etc... seems to be flying in the face of a lot of things I'm seeing right now. Big tech giants are like Google are currently putting in plans to have employees return to the office, gas demand in the US and China is returning to normal, and if traffic around the Seattle region is an indication, it seems other companies are following suit.

Therefore, I don't think UA needs to rebrand itself as the next G4, and fly a bunch of 1993-96 built A320's to leisure destinations in FL. Business/international will come back, but there likely will be some permanent damage on the biz side (10-20% reduction from my gut). How UA responds is the milluon dollar question.

EDIT - another thing that flies in the face of the "new economy" rhetoric is the fact that the US still relies on the same global (read: foreign) supply chain it did pre-pandemic. While sales and financial meetings will likely stay virtual, companies in the US still need to visit contractors' manufacturing facilities on occasion.


No one is saying United needs to completely rebrand itself what people are saying is if your business is going to be down 20-30% in the new normal an airline like United would absolutely need to find new ways of making money.

If we take a look at international long haul in particular destinations that are slot/frequency controlled like for example LHR and China, I think we are going to see UA employ to different strategies. I think starting in 2022 UA (if forced to do so) will utilize every LHR slot we have even if operating the route costs us money, the slot is to valuable to loose. Whereas to China I think UA will allow some frequencies to go dormant or may even return some frequencies because you are not going to see AA and DL all of sudden start fighting over additional tier 1 frequencies to China. Post-pandemic US-China frequencies will not be as valuable as they were pre-pandemic.

Pre-pandemic UA had a sizable daily operation between the US and China UA had even applied for daily double EWR-PVG. I don't think we will see daily double flights to China on UA return any time soon. And for the next 3-5 years it wouldn't surprise me if starting in 2022 UA's schedule to China looked something like this 1x daily SFO-/LAX/EWR-PVG, 1x daily SFO/EWR-PEK, 1x daily SFO-CTU while our ORD and IAD-China operations remain suspended. I think the same will ring true for example SFO-SIN, I think it will take a few years before that route returns daily double. When Singapore reopens fully to Americans I can see UA operating 1x daily SFO-SIN and operating 1x daily for the next 2-4 years. In the mean time where do we move that second 789 that we were sending daily to SIN, PVG or even IAD/ORD-PEK?

There are opportunities out there for UA both domestically and internationally what United has to figure out is once business traffic returns to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels where do we now utilize the other 20-30% of our resources that were pre-pandemic committed to business traffic/destinations but are no longer needed on those routes for the time being. This is where the reinvention comes into play, UA needs to find a way to expand the network into places that we have historically ignored because we were so laser focused on business traffic. If we are not going to do that than the only option for UA is to shrink the airline by 30-40% and we go back to old policy that every other UA CEO employed which was lets shrink our way into profitability. The difference is that isn't going to work this time.


If UA wanted to preserve those slots they have 2 options that would be cheaper than operating the same flights.

1) Moving the ORD - PEK/PVG slots to GUM-PVG/PEK. UA used to operate PVG and I think PEK out of GUM.

2) Exercise UAs NRT 5th freedom authority and add NRT-PEK/PVG as a continuation. They could route some 73Gs out of GUM for these routes instead of using a 777 or 787.

Of course these would require governments to approve this and who knows if they would.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:53 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


No, June was just finished, July is still a placeholder.


July domestic is updated now on united.com


Im not sure it is. It has routes like IAH-RIC at 3x daily and IAH-LGA at 8x daily.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:54 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:

No, June was just finished, July is still a placeholder.


July domestic is updated now on united.com


Im not sure it is. It has routes like IAH-RIC at 3x daily and IAH-LGA at 8x daily.


Meant on Unitedcargo.com, my bad

IAH-LGA looks like 5x on July 16, and RIC 1x
Last edited by Midwestindy on Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 3:55 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


No, June was just finished, July is still a placeholder.


Actually, I think June is still in flux. I received an email notification today of a June 3 flight change, it was a drastic one too. Not very fun for the traveler for sure.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:01 pm

tphuang wrote:
As long as America still has more than 30k new cases a day, borders to most Asian countries are simply not going to open without mandatory quarantine. It's not like those countries depend on American tourist $.


With regard to China/Hong Kong, is this really a political issue that uses COVID as a pretext? There's not really any scientific or technical reason that Americans (or anyone else) who are vaccinated and can present a negative test result ought to be required to quarantine, and the reality even today is that most Americans who would want or need to travel to China are vaccinated.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:02 pm

fun2fly wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


No, June was just finished, July is still a placeholder.


Actually, I think June is still in flux. I received an email notification today of a June 3 flight change, it was a drastic one too. Not very fun for the traveler for sure.


Yep, they also just did another round of June updates, lots of guage updates and some frequency chops.
ORD & IND

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AA94
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:08 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


The June schedule was just finalized last weekend and you're asking about July?
 
tphuang
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:17 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
tphuang wrote:
As long as America still has more than 30k new cases a day, borders to most Asian countries are simply not going to open without mandatory quarantine. It's not like those countries depend on American tourist $.


With regard to China/Hong Kong, is this really a political issue that uses COVID as a pretext? There's not really any scientific or technical reason that Americans (or anyone else) who are vaccinated and can present a negative test result ought to be required to quarantine, and the reality even today is that most Americans who would want or need to travel to China are vaccinated.


A lot of people on this board sees COVID differently than many parts of the world. Your perspective maybe that someone who is vaccinated is safe. In China, their perspective is that America has an out of control COVID problem despite all the vaccinations. They don't trust or accept your vaccinations. To put things into perspective: Yesterday, America had 56k cases, China had 12, Hong Kong 7, Taiwan 6, Singapore 23, Vietnam 8, Australia 24, New Zealand 1. If you were these countries, would you allow Americans in without quarantine? Heck, even Canada doesn't allow Americans in without mandatory hotel stay until test result comes back.

Given how easy it is to create fake COVID vaccination record, could these countries really trust that someone has actually beeen vaccinated.

More broadly, they see how dire things are in India and Brazil. They don't want these virus to get into their country in any form and shut down their everyday life.

You don't have the same problem in Europe, because the case counts are also quite high there and they need American tourist money.

It will be a long time before demand to China/HKG/Singapore from America recovers to pre-COVID level. We'd have to see intra-Asia travel recover first. That is still very much non-existent right now.
 
AC4500
Posts: 590
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:26 pm

AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


The June schedule was just finalized last weekend and you're asking about July?

check unitedcargo.com
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:40 pm

July isn’t finalized. It’s just the placeholder schedule. What routes are you guys seeing that are different from both June and, say, September? July probably won’t be finalized until mid-late May, with the way things have been going.
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Scarebus34
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:07 pm

Spain expects to re-open to Americans in June - vaccinated or not. It's possible to see EWR-MAD/BCN pulled forward a few weeks and maybe an add from ORD/IAD?

EWR-BCN currently set to return on 7/8
EWR-MAD currently set to return on 7/3

https://viewfromthewing.com/spain-expec ... to-expect/
 
CALMSP
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 5:31 pm

it was nice with the intro for IAD-Spain and even the upgrade to BCN, would like to see that added as well as adding ORD.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:08 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
Spain expects to re-open to Americans in June - vaccinated or not. It's possible to see EWR-MAD/BCN pulled forward a few weeks and maybe an add from ORD/IAD?

EWR-BCN currently set to return on 7/8
EWR-MAD currently set to return on 7/3

https://viewfromthewing.com/spain-expec ... to-expect/


I think once we start to see actual dates for these countries reopening we will see airlines act to bring those flights back. I do think IAD-BCN seasonal would be a good add given that they w ould not be competing with AA or Iberia on the route.
 
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cosyr
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 7:30 pm

AC4500 wrote:
AA94 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Is the July schedule done?


The June schedule was just finalized last weekend and you're asking about July?

check unitedcargo.com

That's helpful if you have tickets and want to know how they're going to change, but given the price roller coaster at the moment, actually planning travel for this summer is proving nearly impossible. It seems like as different markets reopen things in stages, (first outdoor dining, then increasing group capacity, then indoor...etc.) UA needs to start stretching out it's planning to more than the 4-6 weeks ahead of time that they've been doing throughout the pandemic.

They seem to be working off the older planning knowledge that they've had pre-COVID, but as we've said UA was heavier business focused than competitors. Now they are courting leisure travelers, and many of them plan out farther ahead than business.
 
jayunited
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:45 pm

Pinto wrote:

If UA wanted to preserve those slots they have 2 options that would be cheaper than operating the same flights.

1) Moving the ORD - PEK/PVG slots to GUM-PVG/PEK. UA used to operate PVG and I think PEK out of GUM.

2) Exercise UAs NRT 5th freedom authority and add NRT-PEK/PVG as a continuation. They could route some 73Gs out of GUM for these routes instead of using a 777 or 787.

Of course these would require governments to approve this and who knows if they would.



United tried GUM-PVG before and the route lost money, the only reason we did it was to hold on to the tier 1 frequency. If the frequencies were as valuable post pandemic as they were pre-pandemic then yes I think UA would deploy a strategy that utilizes the frequencies out of GUM maybe even going back to 5th freedom out of NRT. Since late 2020 Scott Kirby continues to tell employees the last international market that will return to anywhere close to full strength will be China. And it is not just COVID at play US - China relations are strained which will have an effect on the value of those tier 1 frequencies. If UA in 2022 request a dormancy waiver from the DOT for lets say our ORD and IAD- China frequencies, and 1 of our SFO-PVG daily double frequencies, I seriously doubt either AA or DL would file an objection, they probably will file for dormancy waivers of their own as well. In some NOC town halls we have been told it will probably be 4-5 years before we see movement in the right direction in China in terms of getting back to normalcy. With that in mind there is no reason or need for United to operate GUM-China because for the next few years because tier 1 frequencies will have little to no value. Contrast that with LHR slots and we will see United do whatever is necessary to hold on to every single LHR slot we have.
 
FSDan
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:48 pm

rjbesikof wrote:
I do think IAD-BCN seasonal would be a good add given that they would not be competing with AA or Iberia on the route.


UA flew IAD-BCN the last few summers. Typically a 764 route.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:01 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
July isn’t finalized. It’s just the placeholder schedule. What routes are you guys seeing that are different from both June and, say, September? July probably won’t be finalized until mid-late May, with the way things have been going.


A lot has been cut for EWR.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:45 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
July isn’t finalized. It’s just the placeholder schedule. What routes are you guys seeing that are different from both June and, say, September? July probably won’t be finalized until mid-late May, with the way things have been going.


A lot has been cut for EWR.


Is that compared to June, May or April of this year? Or compared to the placeholder schedule? If that's the case, how do the cuts compare to other pandemic era months?
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:09 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
July isn’t finalized. It’s just the placeholder schedule. What routes are you guys seeing that are different from both June and, say, September? July probably won’t be finalized until mid-late May, with the way things have been going.


A lot has been cut for EWR.


Is that compared to June, May or April of this year? Or compared to the placeholder schedule? If that's the case, how do the cuts compare to other pandemic era months?


It pretty much aligns with the June schedule
 
sldispatcher
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:18 am

With US cruise ports opening in July, more opportunity will present itself.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:34 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:

A lot has been cut for EWR.


Is that compared to June, May or April of this year? Or compared to the placeholder schedule? If that's the case, how do the cuts compare to other pandemic era months?


It pretty much aligns with the June schedule


EWR has cuts for UA in July vs June? What are you seeing? Inquiring minds want to know...

When did the runway closure for reconstruction begin?
My statements do not represent my former employer or my current employer and are my opinions only.
 
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ChaseP
Posts: 61
Joined: Wed Jul 23, 2014 4:52 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:16 am

Maintenance Update:
N23721 (Boeing 737-700) is scheduled to ferry from EWR to MCO (UA2746/30) for C Check maintenance.
N656UA (Boeing 767-300ER) entered ORD for maintenance.

Polaris Update:
N657UA (Boeing 767-300ER) is scheduled for multiple ferries. The aircraft will be the final 767-300ER unit to receive the 46J Polaris config.
(1) IAH - HNL (UA2844/01)
(2) HNL - GUM (UA2845/02)
(3) GUM - HKG (UAXXXX/02)
 
UAinAUS
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:09 am

UAX Update!

E145XR:
N17196 (2005 build, ex-EV) exited IGM storage, ferried JAX prior to transfer to CommutAir

CR5:
N506MJ ferried AMA for paint

CR7:
N514MJ ferried STL for CR5 conversion
 
AmericanAir88
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:34 am

Anyone have the transcript of UA’s recent meeting? Heard they discussed JFK as having “Big plans.” How is UA doing at JFK?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:38 am

Maybe UA is expecting JFK slots to go away for a while. I don't see how else they can get enough slots to having big plans.
 
Golfmikey
Posts: 39
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:41 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:54 am

ChaseP wrote:
Maintenance Update:
N23721 (Boeing 737-700) is scheduled to ferry from EWR to MCO (UA2746/30) for C Check maintenance.
N656UA (Boeing 767-300ER) entered ORD for maintenance.

Polaris Update:
N657UA (Boeing 767-300ER) is scheduled for multiple ferries. The aircraft will be the final 767-300ER unit to receive the 46J Polaris config.
(1) IAH - HNL (UA2844/01)
(2) HNL - GUM (UA2845/02)
(3) GUM - HKG (UAXXXX/02)



Any word if the 3 un modded 763 will still go to the 30J Polaris? Are they next in line?
 
MIflyer12
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Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:13 pm

jayunited wrote:
There are opportunities out there for UA both domestically and internationally what United has to figure out is once business traffic returns to 70-80% of pre-pandemic levels where do we now utilize the other 20-30% of our resources that were pre-pandemic committed to business traffic/destinations but are no longer needed on those routes for the time being. This is where the reinvention comes into play, UA needs to find a way to expand the network into places that we have historically ignored because we were so laser focused on business traffic. If we are not going to do that than the only option for UA is to shrink the airline by 30-40% and we go back to old policy that every other UA CEO employed which was lets shrink our way into profitability. The difference is that isn't going to work this time.


Really, jay, it didn't work before, either. U.S. carriers are pretty asset-heavy (not just aircraft, gate leases, too) and with inflexible labor forces. Ch 11 winds up the default tool when you need to do more than mess around the edges. Depending on how quickly and fully intercon and business travel come back, they may need a lot more than messing around the edges with 15 weekly seasonal flights to PWM.

Going back not too far but pre-COVID, to the 'natural share' domestic expansion, I'm not sure UA (or AA or DL) has the right fleet mix for what comes next. The idea of CRJ-550s to skirt scope was interesting, but with the collapse of business travel you get trip costs of a CR7 spread over just 50 seats of VFR/leisure travel, and people can happily adjust timing for the 4x weekly Spirit/Allegiant/Frontier A321 (or a DL 76-seat CR9). It's much the same thing with premium-heavy widebodies. They won't get much of a fare premium from many people on 2-3 hr domestic routes, and these present much bigger increments of capacity against 321neos and MAX 9s that already start with superior seat costs. 'But NYC-Caribbean!' or 'SFO-Tahiti!' doesn't create a profitable route network. UA needs hundreds of financially attractive city pairs every day, not a few dozen.

But Donald Rumsfeld had some wisdom on this: “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”
 
Tristar328
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:58 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:

Is that compared to June, May or April of this year? Or compared to the placeholder schedule? If that's the case, how do the cuts compare to other pandemic era months?


It pretty much aligns with the June schedule


EWR has cuts for UA in July vs June? What are you seeing? Inquiring minds want to know...

When did the runway closure for reconstruction begin?


UA will have around 200 departures a day this summer. The runway construction started on April 15th and runs through October. The closure is on the evenings and weekends.
 
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airzim
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:25 pm

AmericanAir88 wrote:
Anyone have the transcript of UA’s recent meeting? Heard they discussed JFK as having “Big plans.” How is UA doing at JFK?


I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?
 
codc10
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:37 pm

airzim wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Anyone have the transcript of UA’s recent meeting? Heard they discussed JFK as having “Big plans.” How is UA doing at JFK?


I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?


I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.
 
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airzim
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:01 pm

codc10 wrote:
airzim wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Anyone have the transcript of UA’s recent meeting? Heard they discussed JFK as having “Big plans.” How is UA doing at JFK?


I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?


I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.


That's kind of what I was thinking too. NW and DL have pulled a similar arrangement with KL, AF, and VS by swapping DL/NW metal for the European carriers, and vice versa. I'm thinking CDG-ORD, LHR-DTW, LHR-SEA, EWR-AMS, even JFK-LHR. etc. But if LH begins to park a bunch of their widebody fleet, perhaps it's in the cards?
 
tphuang
Posts: 6298
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:10 pm

codc10 wrote:
airzim wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Anyone have the transcript of UA’s recent meeting? Heard they discussed JFK as having “Big plans.” How is UA doing at JFK?


I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?


I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.


This is getting out of control.

Keep in mind that LH and JL are 2 of the 4 airlines in the T-1 redevelopment consortium. There is no indication that project will no go ahead. Why would they spend that much money developing a new terminal and not fly their own metals to JFK?

Where is UA going to find terminal space to fly all these 767s and 787s? Does UA have a medium term gate solution that would give them multiple widebody gates? If so, where is that at?

And all of this still assumes that JFK slot system will be loosened. If JFK slot system is not loosened in someway, they will have a hard time getting the 20 slot pairs they'd probably need to even operate LAX/SFO/DEN/IAD/ORD.
 
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airzim
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
codc10 wrote:
airzim wrote:

I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?


I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.


This is getting out of control.

Keep in mind that LH and JL are 2 of the 4 airlines in the T-1 redevelopment consortium. There is no indication that project will no go ahead. Why would they spend that much money developing a new terminal and not fly their own metals to JFK?

Where is UA going to find terminal space to fly all these 767s and 787s? Does UA have a medium term gate solution that would give them multiple widebody gates? If so, where is that at?

And all of this still assumes that JFK slot system will be loosened. If JFK slot system is not loosened in someway, they will have a hard time getting the 20 slot pairs they'd probably need to even operate LAX/SFO/DEN/IAD/ORD.


I think you meant NH not JL. In which case NH doesn't use T1 anyway. Taking over the JV flying would by definition be a 1:1 trade in slots and gates.

Who's to say that UA doesn't become party to the new T1 re-development. Also this is all forward looking. Maybe 5-10 years into the future, but of course just a guess.

I'm sure the UA folks know exactly what the terminal, slot, and interim gate solutions could be if they choose to operate these services. Otherwise why would they even be dangling this?
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:37 pm

codc10 wrote:
airzim wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Anyone have the transcript of UA’s recent meeting? Heard they discussed JFK as having “Big plans.” How is UA doing at JFK?


I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?


I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.


UA could also do a CLE>LHR like they used to run on a 752.
 
codc10
Posts: 3087
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Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:08 pm

tphuang wrote:
codc10 wrote:
airzim wrote:

I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?


I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.


This is getting out of control.

Keep in mind that LH and JL are 2 of the 4 airlines in the T-1 redevelopment consortium. There is no indication that project will no go ahead. Why would they spend that much money developing a new terminal and not fly their own metals to JFK?

Where is UA going to find terminal space to fly all these 767s and 787s? Does UA have a medium term gate solution that would give them multiple widebody gates? If so, where is that at?

And all of this still assumes that JFK slot system will be loosened. If JFK slot system is not loosened in someway, they will have a hard time getting the 20 slot pairs they'd probably need to even operate LAX/SFO/DEN/IAD/ORD.


I make no reference to terminal space or co-location, or redevelopment.

The argument of the near-impossibility of UA growth at JFK presupposes a 100% return of JFK operations at peak times (e.g., transatlantic push). That's not going to happen for some time, and when it does, the airport is going to look a bit different, with BA/AA co-located and additional T4 development. Even still, we won't see 11x JFK-LHR every day, or the same level of frequency to other EU hubs, that we saw in 2019 and the years leading up to it. So, there will unquestionably be space available to house a United operation of fewer than 20 daily flights, spread throughout the day. United has also told pilots it currently has access to approximately 14 daily slot pairs at JFK, but at the moment there is no business case for operating any greater frequency than what has been scheduled, and the stated priority right now is to rebuild the transcontinental franchise before moving to domestic connectivity.

While BA is planning to vacate T7 once the T8 work is complete, there is no timetable for the closure/demolition of the current facility and the JetBlue T5 expansion has not been funded. So, T7 remains a viable home for UA ... until it isn't. At least at the moment, and for the foreseeable future, there is ample space to house as large of a United operation as it cares to schedule.

Finally, my post contemplates a time where slot waivers at LHR expire, and airlines return to the use-it-or-lose-it rule. I don't see that happening any time in the next year or so; the pressure from BA will be too great.

As for the JV flying, I would not propose additional frequencies, but a possible restructuring of the LH Group airlines could see some reallocation of flying. Internationally, JFK is the most preferred NYC airport from foreign points of sale, so it makes sense for the foreign JV carriers to operate JFK service where greater JFK demand is inbound, not the inverse. Market dynamics post-COVID, especially transatlantic, could change that calculus. For instance, projections are US point-of-sale demand to Europe will far exceed inbound EU-USA for 2021 and into 2022. Co-brand credit card relationships and FF bases at the dominant POS influence JV flying decisions.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:14 pm

airzim wrote:
tphuang wrote:
codc10 wrote:

I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.


This is getting out of control.

Keep in mind that LH and JL are 2 of the 4 airlines in the T-1 redevelopment consortium. There is no indication that project will no go ahead. Why would they spend that much money developing a new terminal and not fly their own metals to JFK?

Where is UA going to find terminal space to fly all these 767s and 787s? Does UA have a medium term gate solution that would give them multiple widebody gates? If so, where is that at?

And all of this still assumes that JFK slot system will be loosened. If JFK slot system is not loosened in someway, they will have a hard time getting the 20 slot pairs they'd probably need to even operate LAX/SFO/DEN/IAD/ORD.


I think you meant NH not JL. In which case NH doesn't use T1 anyway. Taking over the JV flying would by definition be a 1:1 trade in slots and gates.

Who's to say that UA doesn't become party to the new T1 re-development. Also this is all forward looking. Maybe 5-10 years into the future, but of course just a guess.

T-1 redevelopment consortium is already signed up. It's LH + AF + KE + JL. UA is going to battle international carriers to put its 763s + narrowbodies/RJs in T1? That's a really high cost terminal to be operating domestic stuff and opening lounges. And that is assuming T-1 will even have domestic baggage claims. It does not right now.

I'm sure the UA folks know exactly what the terminal, slot, and interim gate solutions could be if they choose to operate these services. Otherwise why would they even be dangling this?


It seems like you are the one that dangled NRT/FRA/MUC. Nobody knows the exact terminal situation in JFK right now. We haven't even gotten the updated schedule on all the major redevelopment partners' post-COVID plans yet. Without slot restrictions going away, UA is going to have trade for slots with someone. Thanks to the slot waiver, nobody has been forced to give up any of their slots.
 
CALMSP
Posts: 3649
Joined: Wed Aug 13, 2003 3:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:29 pm

I can't see 3x JFK-LHR, even 2x I think would be a bit much for the next 2-3 years. BOS I do wonder if it will get off the ground and certainly not 2x at 76L capacity, I'd be on board for 2x 75B however.
 
tphuang
Posts: 6298
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:36 pm

codc10 wrote:
I make no reference to terminal space or co-location, or redevelopment.

The argument of the near-impossibility of UA growth at JFK presupposes a 100% return of JFK operations at peak times (e.g., transatlantic push). That's not going to happen for some time, and when it does, the airport is going to look a bit different, with BA/AA co-located and additional T4 development. Even still, we won't see 11x JFK-LHR every day, or the same level of frequency to other EU hubs, that we saw in 2019 and the years leading up to it. So, there will unquestionably be space available to house a United operation of fewer than 20 daily flights, spread throughout the day. United has also told pilots it currently has access to approximately 14 daily slot pairs at JFK, but at the moment there is no business case for operating any greater frequency than what has been scheduled, and the stated priority right now is to rebuild the transcontinental franchise before moving to domestic connectivity.

While BA is planning to vacate T7 once the T8 work is complete, there is no timetable for the closure/demolition of the current facility and the JetBlue T5 expansion has not been funded. So, T7 remains a viable home for UA ... until it isn't. At least at the moment, and for the foreseeable future, there is ample space to house as large of a United operation as it cares to schedule.

Finally, my post contemplates a time where slot waivers at LHR expire, and airlines return to the use-it-or-lose-it rule. I don't see that happening any time in the next year or so; the pressure from BA will be too great.

As for the JV flying, I would not propose additional frequencies, but a possible restructuring of the LH Group airlines could see some reallocation of flying. Internationally, JFK is the most preferred NYC airport from foreign points of sale, so it makes sense for the foreign JV carriers to operate JFK service where greater JFK demand is inbound, not the inverse. Market dynamics post-COVID, especially transatlantic, could change that calculus. For instance, projections are US point-of-sale demand to Europe will far exceed inbound EU-USA for 2021 and into 2022. Co-brand credit card relationships and FF bases at the dominant POS influence JV flying decisions.


So you are making the argument that airlines will operate their LHR due to use it or lose it rule. But somehow, airlines won't use their JFK slots when slot waiver ends?

You are saying that UA has told its pilots that it has access to 14 pairs. Is that permanent slots or temporary slots that has been granted due to slot waiver? I would imagine the latter. Regardless, it's presumptuous to think that 20 permanent slots will all be available for UA once slot waiver is over. The fact is B6, DL and AA have all brought back flights much quicker at JFK than LGA. They should be able to meet the 80% slot usage rule if slot waiver goes away by end of October. If there are permanent slots becoming available during peak times, you can bet that UA will not be the only carrier fighting for them. Who is giving up JFK peak hour slots? That's not to say UA can't get 20 slots at times they want. It just isn't that straight forward. And certainly, JFK losing its slot constraint would probably be the best thing for UA.

LH is already have trouble finding places to operate its flights. So, it's going to solve that problem by flying even less to JFK after it has invested a lot of money there?

T-7 isn't a viable home for UA. jetBlue will demolish T-7 on time unless there is evidence otherwise. They have already told their crew members that they plan for an up to 240 flight operation at JFK. You think T-5 is big enough to support that? Who told you they don't have funding for it? I haven't read any article that says their partners/investors have went busto or pulled out of the project.
 
codc10
Posts: 3087
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 4:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
codc10 wrote:
I make no reference to terminal space or co-location, or redevelopment.

The argument of the near-impossibility of UA growth at JFK presupposes a 100% return of JFK operations at peak times (e.g., transatlantic push). That's not going to happen for some time, and when it does, the airport is going to look a bit different, with BA/AA co-located and additional T4 development. Even still, we won't see 11x JFK-LHR every day, or the same level of frequency to other EU hubs, that we saw in 2019 and the years leading up to it. So, there will unquestionably be space available to house a United operation of fewer than 20 daily flights, spread throughout the day. United has also told pilots it currently has access to approximately 14 daily slot pairs at JFK, but at the moment there is no business case for operating any greater frequency than what has been scheduled, and the stated priority right now is to rebuild the transcontinental franchise before moving to domestic connectivity.

While BA is planning to vacate T7 once the T8 work is complete, there is no timetable for the closure/demolition of the current facility and the JetBlue T5 expansion has not been funded. So, T7 remains a viable home for UA ... until it isn't. At least at the moment, and for the foreseeable future, there is ample space to house as large of a United operation as it cares to schedule.

Finally, my post contemplates a time where slot waivers at LHR expire, and airlines return to the use-it-or-lose-it rule. I don't see that happening any time in the next year or so; the pressure from BA will be too great.

As for the JV flying, I would not propose additional frequencies, but a possible restructuring of the LH Group airlines could see some reallocation of flying. Internationally, JFK is the most preferred NYC airport from foreign points of sale, so it makes sense for the foreign JV carriers to operate JFK service where greater JFK demand is inbound, not the inverse. Market dynamics post-COVID, especially transatlantic, could change that calculus. For instance, projections are US point-of-sale demand to Europe will far exceed inbound EU-USA for 2021 and into 2022. Co-brand credit card relationships and FF bases at the dominant POS influence JV flying decisions.


So you are making the argument that airlines will operate their LHR due to use it or lose it rule. But somehow, airlines won't use their JFK slots when slot waiver ends?

You are saying that UA has told its pilots that it has access to 14 pairs. Is that permanent slots or temporary slots that has been granted due to slot waiver? I would imagine the latter. Regardless, it's presumptuous to think that 20 permanent slots will all be available for UA once slot waiver is over. The fact is B6, DL and AA have all brought back flights much quicker at JFK than LGA. They should be able to meet the 80% slot usage rule if slot waiver goes away by end of October. If there are permanent slots becoming available during peak times, you can bet that UA will not be the only carrier fighting for them. Who is giving up JFK peak hour slots? That's not to say UA can't get 20 slots at times they want. It just isn't that straight forward. And certainly, JFK losing its slot constraint would probably be the best thing for UA.

LH is already have trouble finding places to operate its flights. So, it's going to solve that problem by flying even less to JFK after it has invested a lot of money there?

T-7 isn't a viable home for UA. jetBlue will demolish T-7 on time unless there is evidence otherwise. They have already told their crew members that they plan for an up to 240 flight operation at JFK. You think T-5 is big enough to support that?


LHR and JFK slot waivers are not tied. I think there's a reasonable case to be made that LHR slot waivers will remain in force longer than the same at JFK for precisely the reason that there will be greater demand for 100% utilization driven by the domestic market, and US carriers (UA's desire to grow its slot portfolio at JFK is clear evidence of this). On the other hand, BA has neither the equipment nor the business case to operate 100% of its LHR slot portfolio, shy of scheduling dozens of shorthaul flights to squat (as it has in the past) at a loss. There's also tremendous environmental pressure to avoid this practice. Thus, I suspect LHR slot waivers will be more permissive, and perhaps longer-lasting, than JFK.

Who told you they don't have funding for it? I haven't read any article that says their partners/investors have went busto or pulled out of the project.


Has the JFK Millenium Partners bond issuance taken place yet? I haven't seen it. Can you find evidence of it? At the start of the project, that was a 2020-2021 target. No doubt it has slipped.

You will note I did not say anyone has "pulled out." But if the bond isuance hasn't taken place, the project isn't funded. And that pushes everything back, probably years.
 
Pinto
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:30 pm

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:17 pm

codc10 wrote:
airzim wrote:
AmericanAir88 wrote:
Anyone have the transcript of UA’s recent meeting? Heard they discussed JFK as having “Big plans.” How is UA doing at JFK?


I have no insight, but given the wording, maybe they plan to take over some of their JV flying? NRT, FRA, MUC, and possibly LHR?


I continue to think JFKLHR is on the table, just a matter of "when". UA will have 18 daily slot pairs once waivers are lifted and I don't think there will be a business case for 7x EWR every night (as was planned for summer 2020, pre-pandemic). If I had to throw something out there for a full deployment of the slot portfolio in post-COVID times, I would posit:

4x EWR (76L)
3x JFK (76L)
2x BOS (76L)
2x ORD (76L)
2x IAD (788/789)
1x IAH (789)
1x DEN (789)
1x LAX (789)
1x SFO (77W)

That would leave an extra frequency to add to other cities on a day-of-week basis (80% rule) or for a "wild card', like MCO.

As far as the JFK JV markets, I think it's all point of sale dependent. The LH brands are obviously stronger in their respective home markets, so if most of the JFK demand is inbound, it makes sense to keep the flying on the JV tail. But if the LH group is serious about a major restructure, or if it is forecast that local NYC area demand is stronger, I think we could theoretically see swaps to UA equipment (e.g., 2x LH JFK-FRA to 1x UA JFK-FRA, 1x LH JFK-FRA). United's smaller-gauge 767s could be valuable, too, although the likely lower yields for some time makes the mix of aircraft like UA's 767-400, 787-8, 787-10 (larger capacity with more Y seats) attractive, too.


I don't think that this is even remotely possible. UA won't go 3x JFK-LHR at the expense of EWR-LHR.
They might go 2x BOS-LHR if they get an extra slot. UA is going to keep most LHR flying through their hubs, because it will probably hurt them more than doing P2P int'l flying.
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3311
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Fleet, Network, and Discussion Thread - Q2 2021

Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:22 pm

Of course the pandemic has hit business travel, but I'd be surprised if UA operates more LHR flights out of BOS than IAH. 752 out of BOS X2 might indicate sitting on a slot, which could be used better with a 3rd ORD/IAD or 2nd SFO. Also doubt 3 JFKs are needed if downgrading EWR to 4 is the source.

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