When is that supposed to happen? Their goal for the A220 pre-covid was 10 frames a month by the mid 2020s. That has obviously been pushed back.
A well educated guess would tell you sometime within this decade.
So closer to 2030 after Airbus delivers 3000 frames of the A320 NEO and most likely has a new narrow body family on the drawing board?
They may. More likely is that they will continue to refine and develop the A321 series. The number of 320 orders vs 321 has already been declining in favor of the 321 to this point. As well, AB very likely would rather sell 321s than 320s as they not only bring more money in, unit per unit, but have enough developmental potential to form the lower end of the an effective counter strategy to any future MOM/NMA offerings.
The 320 is very good, but is too closely matched to BCA's 7M8 to stand out the way the 321 does on capacity and an A225 would on efficiency. Again, it is its unit production costs —and the associated bid flexibilities— that bring it any real favor against an A225. And that is not a static situation.
It seems to me cargo becomes an issue when comparing the A320 and A220-500 at 180 seats.
The mission profiles for anything in that class are becoming more H2P in nature anyway. That does not take away the importance of cargo, but it is very unlikely to be a deal breaker one way or the other here. As it pertains now
, WN do operate a fairly busy cargo concern, and that has been almost conspicuously omitted from their comments during this latest round.
One serious question. Which airlines have show interest in a potential A220-500?
AF/KLM Group & DL, for a start. More below...
One aviation industry writer, Tim Dunn, said Delta wants 220-500 for its next 160 passenger aircraft.
Delta also wants to the NSA from Boeing as well. Delta wants paper airplanes.
That is how more or less every airplane has started in recent times. Delta wants the NSA & the 225, and is actually not inconceivable that they would eventually go with both, provided the missions at their respective capability fringes are different enough. I do not personally
think it will go that way, but they are not beholden to the same restraints WN are at the fleet level, so it could.
If they are looking into the timeframe when their oldest 738s are due for replacement, a 225 would
have leg up given the eventual 100 or more 223s already on property.
2) They need to know that the larger size aircraft will be available in a few years, and in similar production rates to be able to transition back to a future single fleet model at a reasonable rate. The much discussed A220-500 would have fit along with the A220-300 as a great common cockpit 2 size family. However, Airbus had made clear that they have no near future plans to develop and offer this aircraft, much less in the needed production numbers.
The A220 program has cost Airbus a lot more than they expected and while its supposedly on track to reach production cost breakeven by mid decade (or perhaps a bit latter)... The situation is that Airbus is now willing to dump extra $Billions into the program at this stage to quickly ramp up production and develop the A200-500.
Right. If they cannot get there before the end of the decade, this does not happen. Like more or less anything now, this will be a very long lived production run, and it is not inconceivable that the last of these will be alternatively powered decades hence. Up to 2030 is I think as far as it is reasonable to look for these ordering trends, and I think your conclusions are more or less right for that.
In terms of AB pumping money into the 220 line, yes, I do not see how they have much of a choice there. The biggest Pro column for developing the 225 is that it will do the 320's job better while extending downward to the 223 & 221s. This allows things like an eventual re-wing for the 321 family to become more defensible without losing otherwise 320 unit sales. If they handle this right, and get production to where it needs to be, that will leave AB with a very
comprehensive product family offering.
It’s perfectly natural to be surprised by something coming at you faster than light. You’d never see it coming anyway. . .