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xwb777
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Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:47 am

In his lastest interview with Simple Flying, Emirates President Sir Tim Clark has stated that the A380 fleet will stay for longer as the upcoming B777X deliveries are not fixed yet and facing delays.

According to Sir Tim, The B777Xs were supposed to replace the A380s when they start to arrive but now things have changed as the first B777X is expected to be delivered by 2025, as Sir Tim said that there is a long way ahead for Boeing to deliver the aircraft to customers.

Another issue facing the airline is that longterm planning is not factoring the introduction of the B777X in the fleet as the airline doesn’t have a fixed delivery schedule from the manufacturer.

Source: https://www.google.ae/amp/s/simpleflyin ... onger/amp/

What are your thoughts? I think Boeing will deliver the jet early 2024.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:23 am

So Simple Flying gets a bad rep on here but still lands interviews with global airline CEOs? Quite a dichotomy.
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:28 am

Yet other sources on Twitter quote STC saying the 777X will arrive in 2023, 2024 or maybe 2025. They are unsure. This 2025 is not fixed.
 
A330Inter
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:37 am

77X delay is maybe a reason, but the fact that A380 has no re-sale value is another one, the frames will be paid off after a couple of years and they will be able to operate them at no ownership cost.
It's not what they initially intended to do with the frames (ie retire them at age 12 from EK's fleet) but makes sense financially
 
tommy1808
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:42 am

A330Inter wrote:
77X delay is maybe a reason, but the fact that A380 has no re-sale value is another one, the frames will be paid off after a couple of years and they will be able to operate them at no ownership cost.
It's not what they initially intended to do with the frames (ie retire them at age 12 from EK's fleet) but makes sense financially


Aren´t they all leased and they don´t own a single one of them?

However, given the lack of 2nd hand market lease extensions should come cheap.

best regards
Thomas
 
Avgeek21
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:45 am

I love the A380 staying longer. Fantastic aircraft as a passenger.
 
TC957
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:35 am

Still only the one - A6-EDB - officially withdrawn from the EK fleet. Yet a lot more 77W's have left.
But as has been said, EK may as well sell the earlier 77W's when they can as they can't the 380's.
Love flying them as a passenger as well. I think it'll be late 2030's before the last one is done with EK.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:43 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
So Simple Flying gets a bad rep on here but still lands interviews with global airline CEOs? Quite a dichotomy.

This is the first one they’ve ever done. Which I think was actually done by someone else. It was more of a brought to you by simple flying. And any opportunity for STC to say just about anything he will take it. As he has been doing for the past 12 months.

But in all fairness to them, it was a good for them
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:47 am

xwb777 wrote:
In his lastest interview with Simple Flying, Emirates President Sir Tim Clark has stated that the A380 fleet will stay for longer as the upcoming B777X deliveries are not fixed yet and facing delays.

According to Sir Tim, The B777Xs were supposed to replace the A380s when they start to arrive but now things have changed as the first B777X is expected to be delivered by 2025, as Sir Tim said that there is a long way ahead for Boeing to deliver the aircraft to customers.

Another issue facing the airline is that longterm planning is not factoring the introduction of the B777X in the fleet as the airline doesn’t have a fixed delivery schedule from the manufacturer.

Source: https://www.google.ae/amp/s/simpleflyin ... onger/amp/

What are your thoughts? I think Boeing will deliver the jet early 2024.

I think early 2024 is reasonable. The 2025 is being milked as a headline of course. If you listen to what STC said. It was more like. 23,24 or even 2025. They simply don’t know. All they know is Boeing has a lot to do and some things to change on the aircraft. I don’t expect to find out what that is soon or ever. The plane will just continue flying. By the time it’s certified it would’ve done like 7,000 hours or something insane with how long this certification process is.
 
783211
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:50 am

xwb777 wrote:
In his lastest interview with Simple Flying, Emirates President Sir Tim Clark has stated that the A380 fleet will stay for longer as the upcoming B777X deliveries are not fixed yet and facing delays.

According to Sir Tim, The B777Xs were supposed to replace the A380s when they start to arrive but now things have changed as the first B777X is expected to be delivered by 2025, as Sir Tim said that there is a long way ahead for Boeing to deliver the aircraft to customers.

Another issue facing the airline is that longterm planning is not factoring the introduction of the B777X in the fleet as the airline doesn’t have a fixed delivery schedule from the manufacturer.

Source: https://www.google.ae/amp/s/simpleflyin ... onger/amp/

What are your thoughts? I think Boeing will deliver the jet early 2024.


Something is fishy with respect to these "delays".

More than 4 years from first flight to EIS is about equal the time it took to develop the original 777-200 in the first place -- launched on October 14, 1990 and delivery of the first 777-200 to United Airlines on May 15, 1995; or 4.5 years.

Thus, it would appear as if something is fundamentally wrong with the current version of the 777-9.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:57 am

Baldr wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
In his lastest interview with Simple Flying, Emirates President Sir Tim Clark has stated that the A380 fleet will stay for longer as the upcoming B777X deliveries are not fixed yet and facing delays.

According to Sir Tim, The B777Xs were supposed to replace the A380s when they start to arrive but now things have changed as the first B777X is expected to be delivered by 2025, as Sir Tim said that there is a long way ahead for Boeing to deliver the aircraft to customers.

Another issue facing the airline is that longterm planning is not factoring the introduction of the B777X in the fleet as the airline doesn’t have a fixed delivery schedule from the manufacturer.

Source: https://www.google.ae/amp/s/simpleflyin ... onger/amp/

What are your thoughts? I think Boeing will deliver the jet early 2024.


Something is fishy with respect to these "delays".

More than 4 years from first flight to EIS is about equal the time it took to develop the original 777-200 in the first place -- launched on October 14, 1990 and delivery of the first 777-200 to United Airlines on May 15, 1995; or 4.5 years.

Thus, it would appear as if something is fundamentally wrong with the current version of the 777-9.

Yes, it does not meet new certification requirements that’s what. New certification requirements that came when the aircraft had already started flying. What we don’t know is what exactly needs to be changed.
 
DaCubbyBearBar
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:06 am

What is Boeing saying about a delivery date?? They are not disputing anything, but a 3 year delivery window is HUGE!!!
 
sfojvjets
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:12 am

DaCubbyBearBar wrote:
What is Boeing saying about a delivery date?? They are not disputing anything, but a 3 year delivery window is HUGE!!!


They are still saying late 2023. We'll see about that. I'm thinking mid-late 2024 is a more accurate estimation of the 777X's first delivery.
 
TC957
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:18 am

It seems that EK isn't in a hurry to take the 77X's and let other airlines iron out any potential early-build issues that may crop up.
With the travel downturn the existing fleet won't clock up so many flight hours as planned so I think EK are being sensible
in delaying the 77X introduction. I think QR will do the same.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:22 am

TC957 wrote:
It seems that EK isn't in a hurry to take the 77X's and let other airlines iron out any potential early-build issues that may crop up.
With the travel downturn the existing fleet won't clock up so many flight hours as planned so I think EK are being sensible
in delaying the 77X introduction. I think QR will do the same.

2 days ago Akbar said they’re getting 3 in 2023... he says they’ll take it as soon as it is ready. Now I mean it’s very obvious nobody really knows
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:01 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
So Simple Flying gets a bad rep on here but still lands interviews with global airline CEOs? Quite a dichotomy.


Or the other way, may he is the only one ready to interview STC.
 
Western727
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:40 pm

What a long spread from first flight to EIS. I so wish I could get my cousin's wife (who's on the flight test team) to spill. Of course she's never spilled anything over the years, even to the point of me jokingly calling our relationship strained because she wouldn't share the 777X specs in the late 2010s before they became public. :lol:
 
TC957
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:52 pm

Opus99 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
It seems that EK isn't in a hurry to take the 77X's and let other airlines iron out any potential early-build issues that may crop up.
With the travel downturn the existing fleet won't clock up so many flight hours as planned so I think EK are being sensible
in delaying the 77X introduction. I think QR will do the same.

2 days ago Akbar said they’re getting 3 in 2023... he says they’ll take it as soon as it is ready. Now I mean it’s very obvious nobody really knows

Oh well, the inevitable public spat between AAB and Boeing coming up over delivery delays will keep us A-netters amused !
 
peterinlisbon
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:25 pm

If they can keep them running cheaply, they might as well. There are plenty of spare parts from all of the ones that have been scrapped at a young age. It sounds like a smart move to keep them for as long as possible.
 
randomdude83
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:47 pm

I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:52 pm

Opus99 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
It seems that EK isn't in a hurry to take the 77X's and let other airlines iron out any potential early-build issues that may crop up.
With the travel downturn the existing fleet won't clock up so many flight hours as planned so I think EK are being sensible
in delaying the 77X introduction. I think QR will do the same.

2 days ago Akbar said they’re getting 3 in 2023... he says they’ll take it as soon as it is ready. Now I mean it’s very obvious nobody really knows


How do they define launch customer? Reports that LH and EK were supposedly launch customers, now we have QR into the equation?

Guess the first airline to actually get delivery will be the defacto launch customer?
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:55 pm

2025? I find that hard to believe.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:16 pm

Spiderguy252 wrote:
So Simple Flying gets a bad rep on here but still lands interviews with global airline CEOs? Quite a dichotomy.

The article has a single quote from STC. Chances are it was a reply to an email rather than a full-on interview. The article itself uses the term "conversation" which I feel is acceptable for an email interchange. Our thread starter chose the word "interview".

I'm pretty neutral on SF. I've seen some stuff there that is clearly from an aviation media novice, filled with inaccuracies. I've also seen some stuff that is decent quality. I look at stuff with an open mind. I don't toss out everything based on one bad experience. They list the author at the bottom of the page, you can get a feel for their experience, or lack of it, from that. Most of their staff are "content providers" without a lot of aviation experience, but everyone has to start somewhere.

randomdude83 wrote:
I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.

Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380. He still has to make lease payments on every single one of them, yet there aren't enough customers willing/able to pay to travel right now. Their best feature, high passenger capacity, works against them now. Their big weakness, low cargo volume, also works against them now too.

I don't think he can just retire them now, the lessors still want to get paid, and as one of our more connected members pointed out a lot of participants in those leasing syndicates are the Dubai government and some high net worth Emirati. There's no easy way to walk away from them. At some level EK feels like a giant Ponzi scheme inches away from collapse. Good thing for them their owner can literally print cash if he needs to.

It is convenient for STC that he can blame Boeing for 777X delays, but the truth is that EK is losing loads of money every day and taking delivery of 777X would only make things worse for his company.

Thus we get quotes about the aircraft serving into the mid 2030s, because they have to. They will be getting older day by day while his competition adds more 787s and A350s to their fleet year by year. Heck, even EK has moved on from A380. He put a giant millstone around EK's neck in the form of their oversized A380 fleet and he's stuck with dealing with it.
 
Murcielago4me
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:43 pm

Plus, having got one delivered even recently, what option do they have.

As good / comfortable aircraft the A380 might be, there were very few who wanted it pre-COVID.
Post-COVID, absolutely no one wants them.

EK will use them on high density routes for years to come.

Cheers.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:45 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.


Most of the fleet won't even come of lease before the 2nd half of the 2020s. If they end up having too much capacity pushing 77X further out or offloading 77Ws would help much more than parking A380 and still pay for them...

Best regards
Thomas
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
Spiderguy252 wrote:
So Simple Flying gets a bad rep on here but still lands interviews with global airline CEOs? Quite a dichotomy.

The article has a single quote from STC. Chances are it was a reply to an email rather than a full-on interview. The article itself uses the term "conversation" which I feel is acceptable for an email interchange. Our thread starter chose the word "interview".

I'm pretty neutral on SF. I've seen some stuff there that is clearly from an aviation media novice, filled with inaccuracies. I've also seen some stuff that is decent quality. I look at stuff with an open mind. I don't toss out everything based on one bad experience. They list the author at the bottom of the page, you can get a feel for their experience, or lack of it, from that. Most of their staff are "content providers" without a lot of aviation experience, but everyone has to start somewhere.

randomdude83 wrote:
I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.

Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380. He still has to make lease payments on every single one of them, yet there aren't enough customers willing/able to pay to travel right now. Their best feature, high passenger capacity, works against them now. Their big weakness, low cargo volume, also works against them now too.

I don't think he can just retire them now, the lessors still want to get paid, and as one of our more connected members pointed out a lot of participants in those leasing syndicates are the Dubai government and some high net worth Emirati. There's no easy way to walk away from them. At some level EK feels like a giant Ponzi scheme inches away from collapse. Good thing for them their owner can literally print cash if he needs to.

It is convenient for STC that he can blame Boeing for 777X delays, but the truth is that EK is losing loads of money every day and taking delivery of 777X would only make things worse for his company.

Thus we get quotes about the aircraft serving into the mid 2030s, because they have to. They will be getting older day by day while his competition adds more 787s and A350s to their fleet year by year. Heck, even EK has moved on from A380. He put a giant millstone around EK's neck in the form of their oversized A380 fleet and he's stuck with dealing with it.

Oh it was real interview. I actually watched it. Though the interview wasn’t done by simple flying staff. Simple flying was just the platform on which the interview was broadcast
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:56 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Oh it was real interview. I actually watched it. Though the interview wasn’t done by simple flying staff. Simple flying was just the platform on which the interview was broadcast

Interesting. It would have been nice if they provided a link to the video and/or to a transcript.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
Thus we get quotes about the aircraft serving into the mid 2030s, because they have to. They will be getting older day by day while his competition adds more 787s and A350s to their fleet year by year. Heck, even EK has moved on from A380. He put a giant millstone around EK's neck in the form of their oversized A380 fleet and he's stuck with dealing with it.


This!
EK had explosive growth against competitors fielding largely old fleets vs. flying brand new, very economic types. But with 787s and A350s growing into serious shares of fleets, 744s, MD11s, A340 retiring those competitors could suddenly offer non-stop connections burning less fuel than EK with a stop in the middle even when DXB was en route or close to it, and still needing to fill that enormous fleet, dumping tickets into the market with ridiculous backtracking on routes like US<-> Europe via DXB.

Best regards
Thomas
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:03 pm

Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Oh it was real interview. I actually watched it. Though the interview wasn’t done by simple flying staff. Simple flying was just the platform on which the interview was broadcast

Interesting. It would have been nice if they provided a link to the video and/or to a transcript.

https://twitter.com/leehamnews/status/1 ... 13888?s=21

You can link from there.

For me. I think that the A380 made Emirates in a lot of ways. The showers, the suites the bars etc. They could’ve only done that well on the 380 and that brought them A LOT OF BUSINESS. It made everyone turn heads and say okay, who are these guys. Now did it have to be 100+ frames? No I don’t think so but 380 put Emirates on the map. Moreso than other carriers in their region. But now they have to pay for it unfortunately and I am HIGHLY doubtful those aircrafts are as full as Tim likes to say they were. I think off cirium Emirates average load factor is mid 70s
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:05 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
This!
EK had explosive growth against competitors fielding largely old fleets vs. flying brand new, very economic types. But with 787s and A350s growing into serious shares of fleets, 744s, MD11s, A340 retiring those competitors could suddenly offer non-stop connections burning less fuel than EK with a stop in the middle even when DXB was en route or close to it, and still needing to fill that enormous fleet, dumping tickets into the market with ridiculous backtracking on routes like US<-> Europe via DXB.

We can even project that he's cocked things up by buying A350s and 787s in the second half of their current engine's lifecycle so EK will be disadvantaged once we see Ultrafan on A350 and the corresponding moves on the 787 platform.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:15 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Thus we get quotes about the aircraft serving into the mid 2030s, because they have to. They will be getting older day by day while his competition adds more 787s and A350s to their fleet year by year. Heck, even EK has moved on from A380. He put a giant millstone around EK's neck in the form of their oversized A380 fleet and he's stuck with dealing with it.


This!
EK had explosive growth against competitors fielding largely old fleets vs. flying brand new, very economic types. But with 787s and A350s growing into serious shares of fleets, 744s, MD11s, A340 retiring those competitors could suddenly offer non-stop connections burning less fuel than EK with a stop in the middle even when DXB was en route or close to it, and still needing to fill that enormous fleet, dumping tickets into the market with ridiculous backtracking on routes like US<-> Europe via DXB.

Best regards
Thomas


I am by habit skeptical leaning to cynical, and when I saw the thread title my first thought was 'Blame Boeing delays for opportunistic CapEx reduction.' Emirates doesn't want to receive planes they don't need when they aren't generating the free cash flow to buy them.
 
Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:17 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Oh it was real interview. I actually watched it. Though the interview wasn’t done by simple flying staff. Simple flying was just the platform on which the interview was broadcast

Interesting. It would have been nice if they provided a link to the video and/or to a transcript.

https://twitter.com/leehamnews/status/1 ... 13888?s=21

You can link from there.

For me. I think that the A380 made Emirates in a lot of ways. The showers, the suites the bars etc. They could’ve only done that well on the 380 and that brought them A LOT OF BUSINESS. It made everyone turn heads and say okay, who are these guys. Now did it have to be 100+ frames? No I don’t think so but 380 put Emirates on the map. Moreso than other carriers in their region. But now they have to pay for it unfortunately and I am HIGHLY doubtful those aircrafts are as full as Tim likes to say they were. I think off cirium Emirates average load factor is mid 70s


Agreed. The 2013 order for 50 more is what screwed them. While others were looking at a350s, EK doubled down on an inefficient quad.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:30 pm

My opinion, thus is the only way EK can secure financing. :duck: I have no information or links, just my reading of the financial situation.

Spiderguy252 wrote:
So Simple Flying gets a bad rep on here but still lands interviews with global airline CEOs? Quite a dichotomy.

They are... overly optimistic as a site. On an interview, I will listen to who they interview. Executives want enthusiastic interviewers. The Simpleflying analysis... I would ignore. They are too enthusiastic. That is just my opinion, but I always look for alternative sources unless they are quoting.

I tend to go to CAPA aviation for most airline executive interviews personally.

Lightsaber
 
NZ321
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:46 pm

Whatever it is... a 4 year delay to EK in the 777-9 until 2025 is seriously troublesome from multiple angles given this jet is arguably not reflective of the latest of what tech now offers... if this is indeed the length of the delay I'd say all options are on, or off, the table....
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:49 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Whatever it is... a 4 year delay to EK in the 777-9 until 2025 is seriously troublesome from multiple angles given this jet is arguably not reflective of the latest of what tech now offers... if this is indeed the length of the delay I'd say all options are on, or off, the table....

What is the latest tech for that size category of aircraft then?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 3:55 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Whatever it is... a 4 year delay to EK in the 777-9 until 2025 is seriously troublesome from multiple angles given this jet is arguably not reflective of the latest of what tech now offers... if this is indeed the length of the delay I'd say all options are on, or off, the table....

It's the newest and biggest CFRP wing design ever coupled to the newest and biggest turbofan jet engine ever and lots of systems upgrades too, so I don't think I'd be concerned about its lack of tech. The regulatory anal probe is doing STC a big favor, IMO. He gets to blame Boeing for all his woes.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:03 pm

randomdude83 wrote:
I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.


Data doesn't support his claim. Blaming Boeing doesn't help Emirates. It would be financial disaster if EK keeps any A380s at lease end. The only smart move is to retire on the dot.

A380 retirements assuming 12 year term,
Year-quantity(cumulative)
2020-4 (4)
2021-3 (7)
2022-8 (15)
2023-5 (20)
2024-11(31)
2025-13(44)
2026-13(57)
2027-15(72)
2028-20(92)
2029-9(101)
2030-8(109)
2031-6(115)
2032-3(118)
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:16 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.

Data doesn't support his claim. Blaming Boeing doesn't help Emirates. It would be financial disaster if EK keeps any A380s at lease end. The only smart move is to retire on the dot.

A380 retirements assuming 12 year term,
Year-quantity(cumulative)
2020-4 (4)
2021-3 (7)
2022-8 (15)
2023-5 (20)
2024-11(31)
2025-13(44)
2026-13(57)
2027-15(72)
2028-20(92)
2029-9(101)
2030-8(109)
2031-6(115)
2032-3(118)

Right, and in the last few years you have to ask if it's going to be worth it to keep the overhead of managing a fleet for just 3 or 9 frames with early 2000s engines on them.
 
V6Aveo
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 4:32 pm

I'm interested by the timing here, as this confirmation that the A380 will be in the fleet for at least a while still comes right off on the heels of Airbus talking about an A380 combi. I know that Clark has been specifically quoted saying that he doesn't see any reason to get an A380 combi, but I do wonder if there is any connection, especially as every other bit of news these days about the A380 seems to be about how it's going to disappear very soon.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:00 pm

Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380.

Which on some level, EVERYONE knew, as they could see it in real time.

I mean, nobody else planned to op more than 20 of these at a time; and there was really nothing that anyone could point to at EK, that was so exceptional as to warrant it bucking an entire worldwide trend.

And sure there were critics, but over time, most of them fell to silence; as the airline continued to double-down on the model, and be profitable, in the good years.


Revelation wrote:
Their best feature, high passenger capacity, works against them now. Their big weakness, low cargo volume, also works against them now too.

PERFECT summary of the A380 saga as a whole.


Revelation wrote:
Good thing for them their owner can literally print cash if he needs to.

Hmm, several Abu Dhabi bailouts of Dubai, paint a different picture.......
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:30 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380.

Which on some level, EVERYONE knew, as they could see it in real time.

I mean, nobody else planned to op more than 20 of these at a time; and there was really nothing that anyone could point to at EK, that was so exceptional as to warrant it bucking an entire worldwide trend.

And sure there were critics, but over time, most of them fell to silence; as the airline continued to double-down on the model, and be profitable, in the good years.

STC's disinformation campaign ran so deep he had members of the aviation media publishing his quotes about how the real issue wasn't him buying too many A380s, it was other airline CEOs not being brave enough to follow in his footsteps!

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Good thing for them their owner can literally print cash if he needs to.

Hmm, several Abu Dhabi bailouts of Dubai, paint a different picture.......

Right, printing more money always comes with consequences.

I wonder if STC's contract says he gets paid in pounds sterling or Swiss francs?
 
Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:42 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
And sure there were critics, but over time, most of them fell to silence; as the airline continued to double-down on the model, and be profitable, in the good years.


What's the phrase "The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent".

Eventually, the house of cards comes down. It just can take a while.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:09 pm

Antarius wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Interesting. It would have been nice if they provided a link to the video and/or to a transcript.

https://twitter.com/leehamnews/status/1 ... 13888?s=21

You can link from there.

For me. I think that the A380 made Emirates in a lot of ways. The showers, the suites the bars etc. They could’ve only done that well on the 380 and that brought them A LOT OF BUSINESS. It made everyone turn heads and say okay, who are these guys. Now did it have to be 100+ frames? No I don’t think so but 380 put Emirates on the map. Moreso than other carriers in their region. But now they have to pay for it unfortunately and I am HIGHLY doubtful those aircrafts are as full as Tim likes to say they were. I think off cirium Emirates average load factor is mid 70s


Agreed. The 2013 order for 50 more is what screwed them. While others were looking at a350s, EK doubled down on an inefficient quad.


Very true. The first big A380 order was insane, but they got lucky, it was a perfect cultural moment and it worked. The second big A380 order was, in my opinion, simply psycho.
 
airbazar
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380. He still has to make lease payments on every single one of them, yet there aren't enough customers willing/able to pay to travel right now. Their best feature, high passenger capacity, works against them now. Their big weakness, low cargo volume, also works against them now too.

It's easy to say that now and hard to agree with the statement when the A380 at EK has been nothing but a resounding success and up until the Pandemic they were using every single one of them. It's not like they could have seen a Pandemic coming. AF, TG, etc, yes those airlines over-committed. In fact probably should have never ordered them. But not EK. I think they would have been just fine with what they ordered had it not been for a Pandemic.
 
Airlinerdude
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:55 pm

Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380.


Is it though? Pre-covid, he decided to extend the leases on the Doric ones (EDP, EDT, EDX, EDY, EDZ, EEB, and EEC) from 10 years to 12 years as late as Q1 2020. If he had figured he'd over-committed to the 380, I am doubtful he would have exercised the extension of these leases. Post-covid is anyone's guess at this point whether the move was smart financially sound or not.

I don't think he can just retire them now, the lessors still want to get paid, and as one of our more connected members pointed out a lot of participants in those leasing syndicates are the Dubai government and some high net worth Emirati. There's no easy way to walk away from them. At some level EK feels like a giant Ponzi scheme inches away from collapse. Good thing for them their owner can literally print cash if he needs to.


The fact of the matter is that none of these aircraft (bar EDB) have been officially retired from the fleet. At the very least, if there was no intent on bringing them back, they would have retired them and continued to pay the remaining of the lease or finance (for the 'owned' ones). Whether or not you agree with his statements, TC appears to be thinking that there is still a profitable future for the aircraft at EK.
 
Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:27 pm

airbazar wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380. He still has to make lease payments on every single one of them, yet there aren't enough customers willing/able to pay to travel right now. Their best feature, high passenger capacity, works against them now. Their big weakness, low cargo volume, also works against them now too.

It's easy to say that now and hard to agree with the statement when the A380 at EK has been nothing but a resounding success and up until the Pandemic they were using every single one of them. It's not like they could have seen a Pandemic coming. AF, TG, etc, yes those airlines over-committed. In fact probably should have never ordered them. But not EK. I think they would have been just fine with what they ordered had it not been for a Pandemic.


EK had a fleet wide Load Factor of 78% in 2019.

They simply did not need the extra capacity.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:25 pm

airbazar wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380.

It's easy to say that now and hard to agree with the statement when the A380 at EK has been nothing but a resounding success and up until the Pandemic they were using every single one of them. It's not like they could have seen a Pandemic coming.

You just basically defeated your own argument: the first real downturn that the post-A380 civil aviation market faces, and the model's demand crumbles to dust. Yes, I'm aware that there were technically some deliveries during the 2008 financial downturn and ensuing fuel insanity, but fleets were small and thin.

EK went buck wild, in a way that completely defied the rest of the market (while on the other hand, not doing anything new/novel in their business model); and people want to act surprised over accusations of over-commitment?

Sure Covid is the worst downturn the industry has yet seen, but (1) severe downturns in general are always a risk, as are (2) pandemics... just ask Cathay and AeroMexico, they could tell you all about the latter. These are things that you have to account for; and having what's arguably he world's least flexible large fleet of aircraft, certainly doesn't past muster on that front.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:57 am

Analyzing EK's A380 fleet is interesting.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Emirates

Only 17 of the 117 A380's are active at EK at this time. Most of the fleet consists of A380-861's, which are powered by GP7200's and are the legacy aircraft in EK's A380 fleet. The remainder of the fleet are A380-842's, which are powered by RR Trent 972's. There are 5 more of this type (representing the last of the A380 program) sitting on the flight line in Toulouse still awaiting delivery (this year?).

EK has a variety of passenger configurations for their A380's, including a 15-aircraft sub-fleet that have 615 seat, 2-class layouts. It could be presumed that this sub-fleet has been mainly used to shuttle contract labor to/from Dubai and Central/Eastern Asia/India (this sub-fleet is currently parked). EK's typical 3-class layout seats 517~519 in total, although there are some 3-class variants with as little as 489 seats and a 4-class version with 484 seats. With all these differing interiors, and considering the high cost of refitting A380 interiors (one of the reasons Air France stated in their retirement decision), I wonder how many of the older types will get updated?

What is telling is that the bulk of EK's fleet are powered by GP7200. Engine Alliance (EA) was the GE/P&W joint venture company set up to develop & manufacture the GP7200, which turned out to be their only product. New engine development & production of the GP7200 ended a few years ago and EA has transferred into a MRO support organization for the engines. Considering that two of the GP7200 users, Air France and Etihad have retired the A380, it is likely that EA's MRO support program might be both shrunk and their cost for services increased. This could force EK's hand in deciding how many of the parked A380-861's actually get returned to service.

https://www.enginealliance.com/news/new ... -alliance/
 
Fatbus
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:28 am

2 class did a few other routes other than sub continent, I did 651 total Pax/crew/infants from Copenhagen and always600+ to BKK .
 
Sokes
Posts: 2773
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:08 am

And I thought Emirates is a successful airline.
I'm o.k. with simple flying. I mean they could as well have called themselves "sophisticated flying". But they didn't. Reading them gives a rough idea. I appreciate if people are sincere.

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