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tommy1808
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:53 am

LAX772LR wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380.

It's easy to say that now and hard to agree with the statement when the A380 at EK has been nothing but a resounding success and up until the Pandemic they were using every single one of them. It's not like they could have seen a Pandemic coming.

You just basically defeated your own argument: the first real downturn that the post-A380 civil aviation market faces, and the model's demand crumbles to dust. Yes, I'm aware that there were technically some deliveries during the 2008 financial downturn and ensuing fuel insanity, but fleets were small and thin.

EK went buck wild, in a way that completely defied the rest of the market (while on the other hand, not doing anything new/novel in their business model); and people want to act surprised over accusations of over-commitment?


They simply banked on increased market liberalization and IATAs forecast in the right ballpark: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2017-10-24-01/

IATA basically expected a possibly supply limited travel market, which is also why the Boeing 787 production was geared to high numbers, Airbus planned to make the A350 in higher number (12/mo?) plus the 777/A330s they could make. EK would have been fine.

EK was high stakes poker all along....

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filipinoavgeek
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:34 am

I do find it interesting that the reasons being publicly explained as to why EK is keeping its A380 fleet is more of "we have no choice" rather than "we love the A380 because it made our image and passengers love it". It's as if even the A380's biggest supporter is behind the scenes not actually that fond of them at all and would have gotten rid of them had they been in a better situation.

lightsaber wrote:
My opinion, thus is the only way EK can secure financing. :duck: I have no information or links, just my reading of the financial situation.

Spiderguy252 wrote:
So Simple Flying gets a bad rep on here but still lands interviews with global airline CEOs? Quite a dichotomy.

They are... overly optimistic as a site. On an interview, I will listen to who they interview. Executives want enthusiastic interviewers. The Simpleflying analysis... I would ignore. They are too enthusiastic. That is just my opinion, but I always look for alternative sources unless they are quoting.

I tend to go to CAPA aviation for most airline executive interviews personally.

Lightsaber


My main issue with them was really more that they seemed too bullish on the A380 and seemed to fanboy over it, and I say this as an A380 fan myself. Well at least it's not CAPA and its apparent obsession with LCCs and the ME3.
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airbazar
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:04 pm

Antarius wrote:
EK had a fleet wide Load Factor of 78% in 2019.

They simply did not need the extra capacity.


Humm, 78% seems pretty good to me. Were they ever unprofitable? No. I rest my case.
Compare that to 81% LF at other widebody only airlines, VS and SQ and they're not too far off.

LAX772LR wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Clearly STC's biggest problem is that he over-committed EK to the A380.

It's easy to say that now and hard to agree with the statement when the A380 at EK has been nothing but a resounding success and up until the Pandemic they were using every single one of them. It's not like they could have seen a Pandemic coming.

You just basically defeated your own argument: the first real downturn that the post-A380 civil aviation market faces, and the model's demand crumbles to dust. Yes, I'm aware that there were technically some deliveries during the 2008 financial downturn and ensuing fuel insanity, but fleets were small and thin.

A Pandemic is not a mere downturn in the economy.
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:09 pm

airbazar wrote:
Antarius wrote:
EK had a fleet wide Load Factor of 78% in 2019.

They simply did not need the extra capacity.


Humm, 78% seems pretty good to me. Were they ever unprofitable? No. I rest my case.
Compare that to 81% LF at other widebody only airlines, VS and SQ and they're not too far off.


Your case isn't rested, lol. The point is that any downturn was going to leave them vulnerable.

And that's happened. Now they have 100 parked expensive inefficient jets that no one else ever wanted.
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:48 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.


Data doesn't support his claim. Blaming Boeing doesn't help Emirates. It would be financial disaster if EK keeps any A380s at lease end. The only smart move is to retire on the dot.

A380 retirements assuming 12 year term,
Year-quantity(cumulative)
2020-4 (4)
2021-3 (7)
2022-8 (15)
2023-5 (20)
2024-11(31)
2025-13(44)
2026-13(57)
2027-15(72)
2028-20(92)
2029-9(101)
2030-8(109)
2031-6(115)
2032-3(118)


That's a pretty good cut at estimating their retirement schedule. The breakdown of this fleet is 89 A380-861's, with 86 parked, and 28 A380-842's, with 15 parked and 5 more due for delivery. If you think about it, the 16 they currently have in service is almost equal to the total A380 fleet sizes of their two regional competitors, Qatar and Etihad have/had combined (20). I'm thinking that the most likely case for EK is that they will eventually operate 33 A380-842's and perhaps somewhere between 10~20 A380-861's going forward.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Emirates

The recent statements by Sir Tim Clark lead me to believe that not just the B777X order might be in jeopardy, but also those A350 and B787 orders they recently placed, too. The reason is that after the pandemic, I believe European passengers will be less willing to flow through EK's DXB super-hub and will try to book non-stop flights. EK's plans to operate a mega-hub at DWC seem unlikely, leaving Dubai with a giant "white elephant" of an airport and a lot of debt to be serviced. Their existing B77W fleet is large, still relatively young and will remain competitive until the latter years of the decade. In summary, I think EK will shrink down to a smaller, still important international airline, but not the global market dominator they were in the 2010's.
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:43 pm

FLALEFTY wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
randomdude83 wrote:
I like that Tim Clark is blaming Boeing for keeping the A380 longer. Really Emirate is flying 10% of the A380 fleet now? by 2024 I still don't think they'll be even 50% utilization of the A380 fleet. So they can Retire them now if they want within the lease periods and still be perfectly fine. I Think he is just fishing for compensation against the 777X Contract delivery date.


Data doesn't support his claim. Blaming Boeing doesn't help Emirates. It would be financial disaster if EK keeps any A380s at lease end. The only smart move is to retire on the dot.

A380 retirements assuming 12 year term,
Year-quantity(cumulative)
2020-4 (4)
2021-3 (7)
2022-8 (15)
2023-5 (20)
2024-11(31)
2025-13(44)
2026-13(57)
2027-15(72)
2028-20(92)
2029-9(101)
2030-8(109)
2031-6(115)
2032-3(118)


That's a pretty good cut at estimating their retirement schedule. The breakdown of this fleet is 89 A380-861's, with 86 parked, and 28 A380-842's, with 15 parked and 5 more due for delivery. If you think about it, the 16 they currently have in service is almost equal to the total A380 fleet sizes of their two regional competitors, Qatar and Etihad have/had combined (20). I'm thinking that the most likely case for EK is that they will eventually operate 33 A380-842's and perhaps somewhere between 10~20 A380-861's going forward.

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Emirates

The recent statements by Sir Tim Clark lead me to believe that not just the B777X order might be in jeopardy, but also those A350 and B787 orders they recently placed, too. The reason is that after the pandemic, I believe European passengers will be less willing to flow through EK's DXB super-hub and will try to book non-stop flights. EK's plans to operate a mega-hub at DWC seem unlikely, leaving Dubai with a giant "white elephant" of an airport and a lot of debt to be serviced. Their existing B77W fleet is large, still relatively young and will remain competitive until the latter years of the decade. In summary, I think EK will shrink down to a smaller, still important international airline, but not the global market dominator they were in the 2010's.



In the same interview, Sir Tim has mentioned that in 2023, the airline will start taking delivery of the A350s and B789s on order. They will be used mainly for further expansion into Asia, Africa, Europe and South America.

Source: https://www.google.ae/amp/s/simpleflyin ... aller/amp/
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:33 pm

airbazar wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
airbazar wrote:
It's easy to say that now and hard to agree with the statement when the A380 at EK has been nothing but a resounding success and up until the Pandemic they were using every single one of them. It's not like they could have seen a Pandemic coming.

You just basically defeated your own argument: the first real downturn that the post-A380 civil aviation market faces, and the model's demand crumbles to dust. Yes, I'm aware that there were technically some deliveries during the 2008 financial downturn and ensuing fuel insanity, but fleets were small and thin.

A Pandemic is not a mere downturn in the economy.

Somehow you managed to completely miss the forest for the trees, so let's break it further down:

  1. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter WHAT throws the market into chaos, but rather THAT something (be it financial, medical, etc) does. They acquired their first A380s in the middle of a severe market turndown, and that should've been their first indication that ordering several dozen more of those might not be the the wisest thing to do, in so cyclical of an industry.

  2. Your statement that they "could not have seen a pandemic coming" is patently false. Pandemics happen, somewhat regularly. Heck, there were two major examples of such in the '00s (i.e. A380 launch era) alone; what more of a warning could there have been???

  3. Thus, they SHOULD have anticipated such a thing to occur, on at least a per-decade basis. Perhaps not to this level, but definitely to a worldwide extent. I mean, as stated: the intercontinental pandemics of 2003 (SARS), 2009 (H1N1), and 2014 (Ebola) should've been a clue. Those wreaked absolute havoc on select regions, and only by grace did they not do so worldwide. But it was only a matter of time until one did-- and in 2020, time was up.

      EK (and to be fair, nearly every other carrier on the planet) got caught with their pants down; but not every other airline possessed such a ridiculously inflexible fleet type or business model, so there's that.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:04 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Somehow you managed to completely miss the forest for the trees, so let's break it further down:

  1. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter WHAT throws the market into chaos, but rather THAT something (be it financial, medical, etc) does. They acquired their first A380s in the middle of a severe market turndown, and that should've been their first indication that ordering several dozen more of those might not be the the wisest thing to do, in so cyclical of an industry.

  2. Your statement that they "could not have seen a pandemic coming" is patently false. Pandemics happen, somewhat regularly. Heck, there were two major examples of such in the '00s (i.e. A380 launch era) alone; what more of a warning could there have been???

  3. Thus, they SHOULD have anticipated such a thing to occur, on at least a per-decade basis. Perhaps not to this level, but definitely to a worldwide extent. I mean, as stated: the intercontinental pandemics of 2003 (SARS), 2009 (H1N1), and 2014 (Ebola) should've been a clue. Those wreaked absolute havoc on select regions, and only by grace did they not do so worldwide. But it was only a matter of time until one did-- and in 2020, time was up.

      EK (and to be fair, nearly every other carrier on the planet) got caught with their pants down; but not every other airline possessed such a ridiculously inflexible fleet type or business model, so there's that.

Yes, and as frightening as it may seem, this round shows the world is really defenseless when it comes to the spread of viruses and everyone should be thinking about what happens when the next one arrives. If the pattern holds it could be around six years from now, maybe more, maybe less.

It is always the largest planes that get parked first and get unparked last if at all. 9/11 pretty much killed off the 747 classics. COVID19 pretty much killed off the 744s. Wouldn't be surprised to see a future event that takes out the A380 before its presumed lifecycle runs its course.
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:09 pm

Revelation wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised to see a future event that takes out the A380 before its presumed lifecycle runs its course.

I mean, if we're to be honest: that's more-or-less already happened.

Production cycle closed way earlier than initially anticipated, and here's only, what, three airlines still left flying them?
Maybe one more (BA) who'll tentatively come back, if markets are ripe?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:03 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised to see a future event that takes out the A380 before its presumed lifecycle runs its course.

I mean, if we're to be honest: that's more-or-less already happened.

Production cycle closed way earlier than initially anticipated, and here's only, what, three airlines still left flying them?
Maybe one more (BA) who'll tentatively come back, if markets are ripe?

Yeah, I was thinking mostly about the life cycles of the frames already built.

IMO, the industry would normally expect 30 or so years from a wide body, even if we say A380 was a novelty they would have thought worse case it'd be 20 or so, no?

I think EK, SQ and CZ are still occasionally operating some A380s.

I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Never made sense for TG or MH to have any, who knows if reality has fully set in or not.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:15 am

Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:55 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?


Not to drag this thread too off topic, but VH-OQC is heading to Europe for maintenance (should be going to LAX first by the end of the month). So...Qantas is dedicated to keeping and operating their A380 fleet.
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Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:56 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?


Also, Joyce has said that its cheaper to send 2 789s nose to tail than fly an a380. I agree - its likely done soon.

When they do Sunrise, the a350 is in, so there's a good chance they end up with more over the mid term future. a350 + 787 should cover their route map quite well.
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:57 am

Revelation wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Wouldn't be surprised to see a future event that takes out the A380 before its presumed lifecycle runs its course.

I mean, if we're to be honest: that's more-or-less already happened.

Production cycle closed way earlier than initially anticipated, and here's only, what, three airlines still left flying them?
Maybe one more (BA) who'll tentatively come back, if markets are ripe?

Yeah, I was thinking mostly about the life cycles of the frames already built.

IMO, the industry would normally expect 30 or so years from a wide body, even if we say A380 was a novelty they would have thought worse case it'd be 20 or so, no?

I think EK, SQ and CZ are still occasionally operating some A380s.

I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Never made sense for TG or MH to have any, who knows if reality has fully set in or not.

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?

So all up then, we are looking at:

Retaining
  • China Southern
  • Emirates
  • Singapore Airlines

Retiring
  • Air France
  • Etihad
  • Lufthansa

Unclear
  • Asiana/Korean
  • ANA
  • British Airways
  • Malaysia Airlines
  • Qantas
  • Qatar Airways
  • Thai Airways

And of that last list, it is likely that around half won't return. It really is astounding how quickly COVID-19 has brought forward the shrinking of the fleet.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:03 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
And of that last list, it is likely that around half won't return. It really is astounding how quickly COVID-19 has brought forward the shrinking of the fleet.


A lot of that list was in the same place before COVID. That's the interesting part. AF and QR were dumping them, Spohr at LH said that they 748 was more efficient, MH and TG are a shitshow, Asiana is financially in trouble.

COVID didn't cause the a380 fleet to shrink as much as we think it did. the fleet was shrinking because it's an expensive inefficient aircraft. COVID accelerated some, and made for a great excuse to wash hands off some bad decisions for others.

Heck, even EK for all their bluster has parked basically their entire a380 fleet during COVID. If the a380 was as great as tim Clark claims it to be, why are they flying their 777s almost exclusively?
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filipinoavgeek
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:06 am

Antarius wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?


Also, Joyce has said that its cheaper to send 2 789s nose to tail than fly an a380. I agree - its likely done soon.

When they do Sunrise, the a350 is in, so there's a good chance they end up with more over the mid term future. a350 + 787 should cover their route map quite well.


Didn't Joyce also recently say that there could still be room for the A380s in their fleet at least until Project Sunrises pushes through?

VirginFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
I mean, if we're to be honest: that's more-or-less already happened.

Production cycle closed way earlier than initially anticipated, and here's only, what, three airlines still left flying them?
Maybe one more (BA) who'll tentatively come back, if markets are ripe?

Yeah, I was thinking mostly about the life cycles of the frames already built.

IMO, the industry would normally expect 30 or so years from a wide body, even if we say A380 was a novelty they would have thought worse case it'd be 20 or so, no?

I think EK, SQ and CZ are still occasionally operating some A380s.

I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Never made sense for TG or MH to have any, who knows if reality has fully set in or not.

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?

So all up then, we are looking at:

Retaining
  • China Southern
  • Emirates
  • Singapore Airlines

Retiring
  • Air France
  • Etihad
  • Lufthansa

Unclear
  • Asiana/Korean
  • ANA
  • British Airways
  • Malaysia Airlines
  • Qantas
  • Qatar Airways
  • Thai Airways

And of that last list, it is likely that around half won't return. It really is astounding how quickly COVID-19 has brought forward the shrinking of the fleet.

V/F

Qatar seems more likely than not to retire their A380s: even before the pandemic they already decided they'd retire them once they hit 10 years old, their CEO criticized the planes as environmentally unfriendly, and they already confirmed that half of the fleet is going away even if the rest do come back. Thai's A380s have supposedly been retired as claimed by reports where their pilots were laid off.
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Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:25 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Didn't Joyce also recently say that there could still be room for the A380s in their fleet at least until Project Sunrises pushes through?


I didn't see that/must've missed it - do you have a link?
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:27 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?


Joyce also said given scheduling windows on routes like LAX and slot restricted airports like LHR the A380 which I believe has been fully written down (someone correct me if i'm wrong) would make money, obviously assuming good load factors. Sunrise would build slowly initially with the likes of LHR, still likely with an A380 via SIN and also non stop JFK, some have asked weather QF will still serve LAX-JFK when SYD-JFK happens, it doesn't make sense to keep JFK-LAX imo. LHR has massive demand though and keeping SIN-LHR makes sense.

I see BA bringing theirs back myself and CZ, SQ, NH, most of the others much less likely imo, NH is an odd 1 with only 3 though
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:12 am

Antarius wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Didn't Joyce also recently say that there could still be room for the A380s in their fleet at least until Project Sunrises pushes through?


I didn't see that/must've missed it - do you have a link?


Multiple sources reported it, but here's a non-paywalled link: https://australianaviation.com.au/2021/ ... he-desert/ It does seem that even if they do return, it's only until Project Sunrise gets up and running given he emphasized the "point-to-point" thing.
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Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 5:50 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Antarius wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Didn't Joyce also recently say that there could still be room for the A380s in their fleet at least until Project Sunrises pushes through?


I didn't see that/must've missed it - do you have a link?


Multiple sources reported it, but here's a non-paywalled link: https://australianaviation.com.au/2021/ ... he-desert/ It does seem that even if they do return, it's only until Project Sunrise gets up and running given he emphasized the "point-to-point" thing.


Thank you.
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andrej
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:53 am

What I would like to get more detail / information is on Clark's statement that "85% of the airline’s profit came from the Airbus SE A380 planes prior Covid-19". Given the fact that B777 fleet seems more capable (cargo wise) as previously noted here on the a.net. Where did such amazing profitability came from? Super low costs (incl. great offer from Airbus)? Low(er) lease payments? Being placed on profitable routes?
 
Strato2
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:21 am

Antarius wrote:
, Spohr at LH said that they 748 was more efficient,


Too bad others did not get this memo considering the Superjumbo smashed 748 sales by 8:1.

Heck, even EK for all their bluster has parked basically their entire a380 fleet during COVID. If the a380 was as great as tim Clark claims it to be, why are they flying their 777s almost exclusively?


Uh perhaps there are for example only 250 people flying due to COVID. You would not want to send A380 with 500 seats but rather 777 with 350.
 
tommy1808
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:47 am

andrej wrote:
What I would like to get more detail / information is on Clark's statement that "85% of the airline’s profit came from the Airbus SE A380 planes prior Covid-19". Given the fact that B777 fleet seems more capable (cargo wise) as previously noted here on the a.net. Where did such amazing profitability came from? Super low costs (incl. great offer from Airbus)? Low(er) lease payments? Being placed on profitable routes?


14 F and 76 C seats per plane vs. 8 F and 42 Lie flat Premium economy seats pretending to be business class.
You may be able to fly 2x 787 for somewhat lower cost than an A380, but not 2x 77W.

Best regards
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oschkosch
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:00 am

Avgeek21 wrote:
I love the A380 staying longer. Fantastic aircraft as a passenger.



Very true :checkmark:
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rbavfan
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:02 am

TC957 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
It seems that EK isn't in a hurry to take the 77X's and let other airlines iron out any potential early-build issues that may crop up.
With the travel downturn the existing fleet won't clock up so many flight hours as planned so I think EK are being sensible
in delaying the 77X introduction. I think QR will do the same.

2 days ago Akbar said they’re getting 3 in 2023... he says they’ll take it as soon as it is ready. Now I mean it’s very obvious nobody really knows

Oh well, the inevitable public spat between AAB and Boeing coming up over delivery delays will keep us A-netters amused !


AAB will reject them when they are ready like he always does. Just delaying them more.
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:07 am

Antarius wrote:
airbazar wrote:
Antarius wrote:
EK had a fleet wide Load Factor of 78% in 2019.

They simply did not need the extra capacity.


Humm, 78% seems pretty good to me. Were they ever unprofitable? No. I rest my case.
Compare that to 81% LF at other widebody only airlines, VS and SQ and they're not too far off.


Your case isn't rested, lol. The point is that any downturn was going to leave them vulnerable.

And that's happened. Now they have 100 parked expensive inefficient jets that no one else ever wanted.


So you think Singapore, Qantas & BA never wanted them? Thats not the comments those airlines made.
Last edited by rbavfan on Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:16 am

LAX772LR wrote:
airbazar wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
You just basically defeated your own argument: the first real downturn that the post-A380 civil aviation market faces, and the model's demand crumbles to dust. Yes, I'm aware that there were technically some deliveries during the 2008 financial downturn and ensuing fuel insanity, but fleets were small and thin.

A Pandemic is not a mere downturn in the economy.

Somehow you managed to completely miss the forest for the trees, so let's break it further down:

  1. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter WHAT throws the market into chaos, but rather THAT something (be it financial, medical, etc) does. They acquired their first A380s in the middle of a severe market turndown, and that should've been their first indication that ordering several dozen more of those might not be the the wisest thing to do, in so cyclical of an industry.

  2. Your statement that they "could not have seen a pandemic coming" is patently false. Pandemics happen, somewhat regularly. Heck, there were two major examples of such in the '00s (i.e. A380 launch era) alone; what more of a warning could there have been???

  3. Thus, they SHOULD have anticipated such a thing to occur, on at least a per-decade basis. Perhaps not to this level, but definitely to a worldwide extent. I mean, as stated: the intercontinental pandemics of 2003 (SARS), 2009 (H1N1), and 2014 (Ebola) should've been a clue. Those wreaked absolute havoc on select regions, and only by grace did they not do so worldwide. But it was only a matter of time until one did-- and in 2020, time was up.

      EK (and to be fair, nearly every other carrier on the planet) got caught with their pants down; but not every other airline possessed such a ridiculously inflexible fleet type or business model, so there's that.



You also forgot the MERS (Middle East Respritory Syndrome) from 2012 that was right in their back yard.
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:21 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?


Qantas already said that the plane still makes sense on a few routes due to capacity & airport curfews.
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:59 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Joyce also said given scheduling windows on routes like LAX and slot restricted airports like LHR the A380 which I believe has been fully written down (someone correct me if i'm wrong) would make money, obviously assuming good load factors. Sunrise would build slowly initially with the likes of LHR, still likely with an A380 via SIN and also non stop JFK, some have asked weather QF will still serve LAX-JFK when SYD-JFK happens, it doesn't make sense to keep JFK-LAX imo. LHR has massive demand though and keeping SIN-LHR makes sense.

That's in line with my thinking.

ZK-NBT wrote:
I see BA bringing theirs back myself and CZ, SQ, NH, most of the others much less likely imo, NH is an odd 1 with only 3 though

I thought CZ has kept at least one flying throughout COVID?

SQ said they were still doing (expensive!) interior refreshes on a dozen A380s and plan them to return to service when conditions allow, the other 7 are going to be retired ( ref: https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/sq-a380-fleet-revamp/ ). I guess we'll see if business conditions allow for RTS, but they're investing as if they expect this to be so.

NH will be interesting to see. IMO it never made business sense to take 3 A380s just for beach trips, they were purchased in order to get Airbus to support their Skymark bid in bankruptcy. It'd be amazing to see a brand new A380 end up at the scrappers having never made a revenue flight. Might be the strangest thing ever in the history of aviation, and that's saying a lot.

Antarius wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
Now they have 100 parked expensive inefficient jets that no one else ever wanted.

So you think Singapore, Qantas & BA never wanted them? Thats not the comments those airlines made.

They never wanted 100 of them.

Heck even MH and TG said they wanted them, although every knowledgeable observer knew they'd never make money operating them.

VirginFlyer wrote:
And of that last list, it is likely that around half won't return. It really is astounding how quickly COVID-19 has brought forward the shrinking of the fleet.

I think so too.

At least with the post-9/11 cull of the 747 classic and current cull of 744, the aircraft being retired had 20-30 or so years service before heading to the scrappers. They had a long and productive service life and weren't that far from the end anyway. With A380 it'll be 10-12 years, in some cases less. An amazing loss of value.

Yes, the trend was heading this way already, but the total fleet stand down meant the airlines had to look long and hard at A380's current and future prospects, and balance the cost of having to store their fleets, mothball crews and training regimes, then do the opposite to take them out of the desert, and the results were not good. Given the airlines were/are awash in red ink, booking a loss on the fleet made a lot of sense for several operators.

Strato2 wrote:
Too bad others did not get this memo considering the Superjumbo smashed 748 sales by 8:1.

Nice way to highlight that Airbus still can't get its act together with regard to freighters.

Pretty hollow 1.7:1 victory, given how much time, money and ego was involved in developing the A380.

It's kind of like claiming victory because there were more brontosaurus than tyrannosaurus rex when the great asteroid struck the earth, the end result is a lot of dead dinosaurs.
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:26 pm

andrej wrote:
What I would like to get more detail / information is on Clark's statement that "85% of the airline’s profit came from the Airbus SE A380 planes prior Covid-19". Given the fact that B777 fleet seems more capable (cargo wise) as previously noted here on the a.net. Where did such amazing profitability came from? Super low costs (incl. great offer from Airbus)? Low(er) lease payments? Being placed on profitable routes?


As of a few years ago EK was able to charge more for (some) seats on a 380 than Delta (for example) on other planes. I don't know if that was generally true.

Res 748 being more profitable for LH, a specific plane outfitted with a specific layout of various priced seats on specific flights can easily be more profitable than its otherwise more efficient competitors.
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Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:41 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Antarius wrote:
airbazar wrote:

Humm, 78% seems pretty good to me. Were they ever unprofitable? No. I rest my case.
Compare that to 81% LF at other widebody only airlines, VS and SQ and they're not too far off.


Your case isn't rested, lol. The point is that any downturn was going to leave them vulnerable.

And that's happened. Now they have 100 parked expensive inefficient jets that no one else ever wanted.


So you think Singapore, Qantas & BA never wanted them? Thats not the comments those airlines made.


Production ended with less than 250 ordered.

The a330 has 5 times as many orders. The 777 has 8 times as many. The 787 has 5 times as many and the a350 has 3 times the number.

The market soundly rejected the a380. Without EK over ordering, the sales would be slightly above 100.
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:48 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Res 748 being more profitable for LH, a specific plane outfitted with a specific layout of various priced seats on specific flights can easily be more profitable than its otherwise more efficient competitors.

Yes, and flying a plane with current generation engines and one not designed for a stretch and a freighter version that never were built can be an advantage too.
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Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:15 pm

Strato2 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
, Spohr at LH said that they 748 was more efficient,


Too bad others did not get this memo considering the Superjumbo smashed 748 sales by 8:1.


See, in your black and white A vs B mind, you think that my comment means that I'm arguing that the 748i was successful and therefore must respond with this completely off topic point. Nowhere did I say the 748i was successful. It wasn't.

All I said was that LH chose to retire the a380 over the 748i and Spohr said the latter was more efficient.

Check your bias.
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DL220MSP
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:17 pm

Antarius wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
Antarius wrote:

Your case isn't rested, lol. The point is that any downturn was going to leave them vulnerable.

And that's happened. Now they have 100 parked expensive inefficient jets that no one else ever wanted.


So you think Singapore, Qantas & BA never wanted them? Thats not the comments those airlines made.


Production ended with less than 250 ordered.

The a330 has 5 times as many orders. The 777 has 8 times as many. The 787 has 5 times as many and the a350 has 3 times the number.

The market soundly rejected the a380. Without EK over ordering, the sales would be slightly above 100.


To distract from this A380 bashing. The A330 has quite a bit more orders than 5 times 250.
 
Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:26 pm

DL220MSP wrote:
Antarius wrote:
rbavfan wrote:

So you think Singapore, Qantas & BA never wanted them? Thats not the comments those airlines made.


Production ended with less than 250 ordered.

The a330 has 5 times as many orders. The 777 has 8 times as many. The 787 has 5 times as many and the a350 has 3 times the number.

The market soundly rejected the a380. Without EK over ordering, the sales would be slightly above 100.


To distract from this A380 bashing. The A330 has quite a bit more orders than 5 times 250.


Whoops, I was thinking deliveries. 7 times the orders.
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Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:29 pm

Antarius wrote:
DL220MSP wrote:
Antarius wrote:

Production ended with less than 250 ordered.

The a330 has 5 times as many orders. The 777 has 8 times as many. The 787 has 5 times as many and the a350 has 3 times the number.

The market soundly rejected the a380. Without EK over ordering, the sales would be slightly above 100.


To distract from this A380 bashing. The A330 has quite a bit more orders than 5 times 250.


Whoops, I was thinking deliveries. 7 times the orders.

I thought it had 1500 orders?
 
Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:30 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Antarius wrote:
DL220MSP wrote:

To distract from this A380 bashing. The A330 has quite a bit more orders than 5 times 250.


Whoops, I was thinking deliveries. 7 times the orders.

I thought it had 1500 orders?


1809. 1511 have been delivered.
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Opus99
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:44 pm

Antarius wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
Antarius wrote:

Whoops, I was thinking deliveries. 7 times the orders.

I thought it had 1500 orders?


1809. 1511 have been delivered.

So you’re including the 330NEO? I just wanted to make sure. No problem then
 
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:21 pm

Antarius wrote:
Without EK over ordering, the sales would be slightly above 100.

Perhaps. Perhaps not. There is a school of thought that had EK not made its mammoth order for the type, there would have been more demand from other operators. But with the impact of EK’s A380 presence, those operators had to go with smaller types with higher frequencies and/or more hub-to-point and point-to-point routes.

Of course [i]what might have been[i] is always a very hypothetical exercise. In the other what might have been questions we could ask:
  • What would have happened had September 11 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009 not taken place?
  • What would have happened had there not been a monumental stuff-up of wiring as a result of mismatches between 2D and 3D CAD systems.
  • What would have happened if the freighter model was properly developed?

V/F
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:52 pm

Revelation wrote:
It'd be amazing to see a brand new A380 end up at the scrappers having never made a revenue flight.

At that point, sell them as VIP jets for cost+€1 or something.

There's gotta be at least three hedge fund billionaires or desert oil sheiks, with pockets deep enough and wieners small enough, to pull the trigger.

....or heck, what would a firefighting A380 water-tanker be able to do?
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Pellegrine
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:22 pm

Thank goodness. I'm happy with the A380s staying 20 more years.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:44 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Without EK over ordering, the sales would be slightly above 100.

Perhaps. Perhaps not. There is a school of thought that had EK not made its mammoth order for the type, there would have been more demand from other operators. But with the impact of EK’s A380 presence, those operators had to go with smaller types with higher frequencies and/or more hub-to-point and point-to-point routes.

Of course [i]what might have been[i] is always a very hypothetical exercise. In the other what might have been questions we could ask:
  • What would have happened had September 11 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009 not taken place?
  • What would have happened had there not been a monumental stuff-up of wiring as a result of mismatches between 2D and 3D CAD systems.
  • What would have happened if the freighter model was properly developed?

V/F


I agree V/F hard to know but I’m on your thinking with EK having taken so many A380s that others potentially took less than they may have otherwise.

The likes of SQ took 24 A380s while they had a total of 42 744s not quite all at once 39 at peak in service, SQ probably had a need for those 744s which also served a lot of regional flights between long haul which is completely normal, later in the 90s with the 772s though they had more specific regional 772 configurations where those planes didn’t fly long haul.

With the A380s though there were some LHR frequencies and HKG-SFO that were 77W as opposed to all 744s previously, LHR did get an additional frequency which I believe they chased a slot for years well back into the 744 days. They stuck generally to a single daily A380 to CDG/ZRH briefly 2 77Ws replaced a single 744, given the connections in SIN I find it slightly interesting that CDG/ZRH didn’t have 2 flights for longer on 77Ws once the 744s left.

BA are an obvious one that could have probably used more A380s given a 744 fleet of 57. Maybe around half the 744s replaced by A380s, lack of freight may not have helped here. BA were lateish and have only 16 77Ws aswell.

LH/QF had more on order, AF struggled with 10 which for nine is probably about the minimum number for a economic fleet, I think AF struggled here with 10, but routes like SFO/LAX/MIA/MEX/JNB made some sense on A380s, probably a few others could have worked.

KE had routes IMO, even TG did bit weather they made money is another question and a fleet of 6, MH/OZ just keeping up with the Jones’s being SQ and KE.
 
Antarius
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:10 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Antarius wrote:
Without EK over ordering, the sales would be slightly above 100.

Perhaps. Perhaps not. There is a school of thought that had EK not made its mammoth order for the type, there would have been more demand from other operators. But with the impact of EK’s A380 presence, those operators had to go with smaller types with higher frequencies and/or more hub-to-point and point-to-point routes.

Of course [i]what might have been[i] is always a very hypothetical exercise. In the other what might have been questions we could ask:
  • What would have happened had September 11 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009 not taken place?
  • What would have happened had there not been a monumental stuff-up of wiring as a result of mismatches between 2D and 3D CAD systems.
  • What would have happened if the freighter model was properly developed?

V/F


I agree V/F hard to know but I’m on your thinking with EK having taken so many A380s that others potentially took less than they may have otherwise.

The likes of SQ took 24 A380s while they had a total of 42 744s not quite all at once 39 at peak in service, SQ probably had a need for those 744s which also served a lot of regional flights between long haul which is completely normal, later in the 90s with the 772s though they had more specific regional 772 configurations where those planes didn’t fly long haul.

With the A380s though there were some LHR frequencies and HKG-SFO that were 77W as opposed to all 744s previously, LHR did get an additional frequency which I believe they chased a slot for years well back into the 744 days. They stuck generally to a single daily A380 to CDG/ZRH briefly 2 77Ws replaced a single 744, given the connections in SIN I find it slightly interesting that CDG/ZRH didn’t have 2 flights for longer on 77Ws once the 744s left.

BA are an obvious one that could have probably used more A380s given a 744 fleet of 57. Maybe around half the 744s replaced by A380s, lack of freight may not have helped here. BA were lateish and have only 16 77Ws aswell.

LH/QF had more on order, AF struggled with 10 which for nine is probably about the minimum number for a economic fleet, I think AF struggled here with 10, but routes like SFO/LAX/MIA/MEX/JNB made some sense on A380s, probably a few others could have worked.

KE had routes IMO, even TG did bit weather they made money is another question and a fleet of 6, MH/OZ just keeping up with the Jones’s being SQ and KE.


This completely glosses over the fact that a lot of 747 operators ordered the 747 because there was nothing else available. Before ETOPS and capable twins you had the 747 as the only capable aircraft for the range needed.

Once the a330, 777 etc. Became commonplace, they replaced the need to order an extra large aircraft; a smaller one was just as range capable. And that's why the a330 has sold 1800 and the 777 2000+ they ate into the market that the 747 previously held.

There was never going to be a 1:1 747 replacement with a VLA. That's why the a380 failed, Airbus miscalculated the market. The 77W wiped out the 744, 748, a345, a346 and a380 in one fell swoop.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:09 am

Antarius wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Perhaps. Perhaps not. There is a school of thought that had EK not made its mammoth order for the type, there would have been more demand from other operators. But with the impact of EK’s A380 presence, those operators had to go with smaller types with higher frequencies and/or more hub-to-point and point-to-point routes.

Of course [i]what might have been[i] is always a very hypothetical exercise. In the other what might have been questions we could ask:
  • What would have happened had September 11 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/2009 not taken place?
  • What would have happened had there not been a monumental stuff-up of wiring as a result of mismatches between 2D and 3D CAD systems.
  • What would have happened if the freighter model was properly developed?

V/F


I agree V/F hard to know but I’m on your thinking with EK having taken so many A380s that others potentially took less than they may have otherwise.

The likes of SQ took 24 A380s while they had a total of 42 744s not quite all at once 39 at peak in service, SQ probably had a need for those 744s which also served a lot of regional flights between long haul which is completely normal, later in the 90s with the 772s though they had more specific regional 772 configurations where those planes didn’t fly long haul.

With the A380s though there were some LHR frequencies and HKG-SFO that were 77W as opposed to all 744s previously, LHR did get an additional frequency which I believe they chased a slot for years well back into the 744 days. They stuck generally to a single daily A380 to CDG/ZRH briefly 2 77Ws replaced a single 744, given the connections in SIN I find it slightly interesting that CDG/ZRH didn’t have 2 flights for longer on 77Ws once the 744s left.

BA are an obvious one that could have probably used more A380s given a 744 fleet of 57. Maybe around half the 744s replaced by A380s, lack of freight may not have helped here. BA were lateish and have only 16 77Ws aswell.

LH/QF had more on order, AF struggled with 10 which for nine is probably about the minimum number for a economic fleet, I think AF struggled here with 10, but routes like SFO/LAX/MIA/MEX/JNB made some sense on A380s, probably a few others could have worked.

KE had routes IMO, even TG did bit weather they made money is another question and a fleet of 6, MH/OZ just keeping up with the Jones’s being SQ and KE.


This completely glosses over the fact that a lot of 747 operators ordered the 747 because there was nothing else available. Before ETOPS and capable twins you had the 747 as the only capable aircraft for the range needed.

Once the a330, 777 etc. Became commonplace, they replaced the need to order an extra large aircraft; a smaller one was just as range capable. And that's why the a330 has sold 1800 and the 777 2000+ they ate into the market that the 747 previously held.

There was never going to be a 1:1 747 replacement with a VLA. That's why the a380 failed, Airbus miscalculated the market. The 77W wiped out the 744, 748, a345, a346 and a380 in one fell swoop.


I'm not glossing over the fact of the 747 being the only aircraft with range but yes a lot of airlines ordered them in the 1970s and 80s as it was either that or the DC10, the 742 flew longer and was chosen where range was required. Come the 1990s airlines like UA over ordered on 744s having 44 for a brief period before 9/11 saw the fleet shrink to an eventual 24-26. BA needed 57 and had more on order that they changed to 772s in many cases because they needed the 744 capacity on shorter US East coast runs JFK/BOS etc.

Regarding the A380, say over a 30 year production run with a stretch or at least some significant upgrades and EK ordering a more realistic number around 30-40 for trunk routes to LHR/FRA/CDG/SYD/MEL/BNE/PER/LAX/JFK then high capacity short haul routes, thing is with DXB located where it is it makes MAN/BHX/NCE etc all within a 7hr flight a lot more realistic than say an SQ ever running a 14hr flight from SIN on an A380 which is partly why in good times the A380 for EK worked, pure masses. Over 30 years and say a 40 year life cycle you could have had EK operating 120 A380s just not all at once, SQ 40-50 in 3 batches, LH 30 in 2 batches, BA 30-35, KE 20, QF20-25, then all those who ordered them who possibly shouldn't have EY/QR/CZ/NH/TG/MH/AF, carriers like CX may have at some point got in on it, I think they wanted a stretch. But with those you might have seen over 400 maybe closer to 450. There were those whom it worked for but sadly few and far between.

The sad reality is we will never know and so its all academic, I still wouldn't think UA would have got any.
 
jagraham
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:04 pm

Antarius wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?


Also, Joyce has said that its cheaper to send 2 789s nose to tail than fly an a380. I agree - its likely done soon.

When they do Sunrise, the a350 is in, so there's a good chance they end up with more over the mid term future. a350 + 787 should cover their route map quite well.


It is cheaper to send 2 789s than 1 A380. But will QF get the slots in SIN, Tokyo, LAX? If not, it may be worthwhile to keep some A380s, as these are the places they can reach which have high traffic. If they can get slots, the A380s are gone . .
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:26 pm

jagraham wrote:
It is cheaper to send 2 789s than 1 A380. But will QF get the slots in SIN, Tokyo, LAX? If not, it may be worthwhile to keep some A380s, as these are the places they can reach which have high traffic. If they can get slots, the A380s are gone . .

The SYD side is also problematic with the night time curfew meaning there is a window where everyone wants to land or take off at the same time.

BA has the same problem at LHR.

Turns out there are a small number of cases where having the biggest possible aircraft makes sense.

Posters here have said the right size for EK's A380 fleet is probably 30-40 frames, and we see SQ recently deciding the right number for it is 12 not 19 and not zero. It will be interesting to see what BA eventually decides.
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LAX772LR
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:04 pm

jagraham wrote:
It is cheaper to send 2 789s than 1 A380. But will QF get the slots in SIN, Tokyo, LAX? If not, it may be worthwhile to keep some A380s, as these are the places they can reach which have high traffic. If they can get slots, the A380s are gone

LAX is not, and has never been, slot restricted. Fairly certain SIN wasn't either.

In the days of LoCo carriers successfully vying for LHR, I'm bettering that QF wouldn't have much trouble getting whatever access it needs, just about anywhere.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
NZ321
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:11 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I suppose we could see BA, QF, and AN take up some of their A380s at some point in time, with KE/OZ as a real wild card.

Of all the above, I'd be the most surprised to see QF bring them back.

Assuming they move forward with (even a significant portion of) Sunrise, which IMO they'll have to, in order to demand yield on their home routes.... how they gonna fill A380s, when LHR/NYC/CDG/FRA/etc have nonstops, and the likes of California, Texas, and Western Canada all have multiple nonstops?

That would've been tough even in good times; but now, in a market likely to be depressed for up to another half decade?


Simple dude; Pacific rim. SYD, SIN and HKG and LAX are heavily slot restricted at prime times, to name a few. And Australia has a lot of folk temporarily or permanently settled from other Pacific rim destinations. And there is nothing that does this sort of mission - when you look at the population and business traffic SYD and MEL and the time zones - like the A380. Put simply, it's not difficult for QF to see that it can make money with this a/c into the future in these markets, as Alan Joyce said recently and as Sir Tim also said this week. Doesn't suit every airline but it sure seems to suit some.
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NZ321
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:29 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
jagraham wrote:
It is cheaper to send 2 789s than 1 A380. But will QF get the slots in SIN, Tokyo, LAX? If not, it may be worthwhile to keep some A380s, as these are the places they can reach which have high traffic. If they can get slots, the A380s are gone

LAX is not, and has never been, slot restricted. Fairly certain SIN wasn't either.


Prior to covid there certainly were gate access issues at SIN, HKG, NRT and BKK at certain times of the day ( I realise there is a distinction with slots and air bridge access), not 100% about LAX but if I recall correctly there were times NZ had issues getting additional gate access at the right time into / out of LAX and to LHR to link to a workable schedule in AKL/Australia. As a traveller I recall many a time mid-late evening at TBIT when things were pretty darn busy with intl departures at LAX... with several QF and NZ 747s more or less in a line, not to mention the late evening Asia departure bank and other international departures. BKK remains famous for the bus to remote parking (how many times I've done it I've long ago lost count), and NRT and HKG are not so far behind - hence BKK opening the new concourse shortly. This is why QF wants the 380. Plenty of $ to be made on these routes.
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ILNFlyer
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Re: Emirates A380 fleet to stay for longer

Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:34 pm

Revelation wrote:
jagraham wrote:
It is cheaper to send 2 789s than 1 A380. But will QF get the slots in SIN, Tokyo, LAX? If not, it may be worthwhile to keep some A380s, as these are the places they can reach which have high traffic. If they can get slots, the A380s are gone . .

The SYD side is also problematic with the night time curfew meaning there is a window where everyone wants to land or take off at the same time.


Turns out there are a small number of cases where having the biggest possible aircraft makes sense.



This is the crux of the issue, the key phrase being a small number of cases.

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