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Midwestindy
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United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:55 pm

https://ir.united.com/static-files/dbd6 ... 24760c06e2

Reported first-quarter 2021 net loss of $1.4 billion, adjusted net loss of $2.4 billion.
Reported first-quarter total operating revenue of $3.2 billion, down 66% versus first-quarter 2019.
Reported first-quarter capacity down 54% versus first-quarter 2019.

Based on current trends, the company expects second quarter 2021 Total Revenue Per Available Seat Mile (TRASM) to be down approximately 20% versus the second quarter 2019.
Expects second quarter 2021 capacity to be down around 45% versus the second quarter 2019

"These opportunistic steps help position United to return to positive net income even if business and long-haul international demand only returns to about 35% below 2019 levels"

UA was actually burning $27M/day
Image
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9603
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Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 9:37 pm

If the crowd will allow a few comparisons to DL, I'll argue they employed different capacity strategies to wind up very much in the same place.

DL flew more capacity, 40118 million ASMs vs. 30370.

DL did so with much emptier planes, a 45% load factor vs. UA's 57%. (That's DL scheduled capacity factor, not sellable middle-seats-blocked load factor.)

That left them with very comparable RPMs: 17948 million vs. 17248 million at UA.

Dropping out DL's 3rd party refinery sales gives op revenue of $3,610 million vs. UA's $3,221. UA did much better in cargo revs. DL did better in passenger revs ($2,748 vs. $2,316 million) due primarily to better yields, $0.1531 per passenger mile vs. $0.1343. This isn't a time when UA's greater historical intl network bias really favors it.

They're both likely carrying excess labor (good if you're an employee). DL flew 30% more ASMs with just a touch less labor expense, actually.

Interest expense (net) was comparable: $361 million at DL against $353 million at UA.

Flying less capacity UA had lower fuel burn in gallons, 490 million at UA against 545 at DL. It also reported a lower cost per gallon ($1.74 vs. $1.87 unadjusted) than the refinery operator.

DL GAAP loss after tax $1,177 million; UA $1,357 million, both unadjusted for CARES Act funds. See their 8-K/10-Q for the adjustment notes if interested.
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1425
Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:35 pm

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:11 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
If the crowd will allow a few comparisons to DL, I'll argue they employed different capacity strategies to wind up very much in the same place.


Nice comparison. Thanks for sharing those numbers.
 
durangomac
Posts: 488
Joined: Fri Dec 08, 2006 5:18 am

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:38 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
If the crowd will allow a few comparisons to DL, I'll argue they employed different capacity strategies to wind up very much in the same place.


Nice comparison. Thanks for sharing those numbers.


Agreed, nice comparison. Can't wait to see AA, AS, B6, and WN.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 10:44 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
UA was actually burning $27M/day
Image


Am I missing something, did UA burn more cash in Q1 than in Q3? (ignoring core, basing on total)

Image
https://hub.united.com/2021-01-20-unite ... 45521.html
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9603
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:01 pm

durangomac wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
If the crowd will allow a few comparisons to DL, I'll argue they employed different capacity strategies to wind up very much in the same place.


Nice comparison. Thanks for sharing those numbers.


Agreed, nice comparison. Can't wait to see AA, AS, B6, and WN.


I'll take a whack at a 6-way comparison when the income releases are out for the other four carriers. AA, AS and WN are due this week.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1880
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:40 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
durangomac wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:

Nice comparison. Thanks for sharing those numbers.


Agreed, nice comparison. Can't wait to see AA, AS, B6, and WN.


I'll take a whack at a 6-way comparison when the income releases are out for the other four carriers. AA, AS and WN are due this week.


Please do! This is great analysis. Like you said, different strategies, fleets, markets. Going to be interesting this summer.
 
Tiredofhumanity
Posts: 168
Joined: Sat Sep 19, 2020 9:27 pm

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:55 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
UA was actually burning $27M/day
Image


Am I missing something, did UA burn more cash in Q1 than in Q3? (ignoring core, basing on total)

Image
https://hub.united.com/2021-01-20-unite ... 45521.html


Good observation :shock: .

This surely all can't be due to the recent Saudi/OPEC/Putin/Wall Street oil market manipulation as of late, or else DL would have been gouged for fuel to the same extent.
 
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Polot
Posts: 11864
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Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Tue Apr 20, 2021 12:08 am

Tiredofhumanity wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
UA was actually burning $27M/day
Image


Am I missing something, did UA burn more cash in Q1 than in Q3? (ignoring core, basing on total)

Image
https://hub.united.com/2021-01-20-unite ... 45521.html


Good observation :shock: .

This surely all can't be due to the recent Saudi/OPEC/Putin/Wall Street oil market manipulation as of late, or else DL would have been gouged for fuel to the same extent.
.
Debt servicing payments are increasing as debt grows over the course of the pandemic. They have also started taking delivery of new aircraft (737maxes and 787s) again.

It’s not due to fuel, which would be reflected in core cash burn (which is much better in Q1 2021 than Q3 2020).
 
tphuang
Posts: 6413
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:23 am

Polot wrote:
Debt servicing payments are increasing as debt grows over the course of the pandemic. They have also started taking delivery of new aircraft (737maxes and 787s) again.

It’s not due to fuel, which would be reflected in core cash burn (which is much better in Q1 2021 than Q3 2020).


exactly, not all cash burn is created equal. What's important is to see how much revenue has come back and how much permanent cost cuts have been made. You can always make cash burn look better or worse by moving around timings of certain expenses and debt payments. Large capex like taking in new aircraft also make large differences to cash burn.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:33 am

Polot wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Am I missing something, did UA burn more cash in Q1 than in Q3? (ignoring core, basing on total)

Image
https://hub.united.com/2021-01-20-unite ... 45521.html


Good observation :shock: .

This surely all can't be due to the recent Saudi/OPEC/Putin/Wall Street oil market manipulation as of late, or else DL would have been gouged for fuel to the same extent.
.
Debt servicing payments are increasing as debt grows over the course of the pandemic. They have also started taking delivery of new aircraft (737maxes and 787s) again.

It’s not due to fuel, which would be reflected in core cash burn (which is much better in Q1 2021 than Q3 2020).


Should be interesting to see other numbers, I would be surprised to see other carriers report similar increases vs. Q3. DL & AA (AA especially) seem to be lower vs. Q3.
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11864
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:46 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Polot wrote:
Tiredofhumanity wrote:

Good observation :shock: .

This surely all can't be due to the recent Saudi/OPEC/Putin/Wall Street oil market manipulation as of late, or else DL would have been gouged for fuel to the same extent.
.
Debt servicing payments are increasing as debt grows over the course of the pandemic. They have also started taking delivery of new aircraft (737maxes and 787s) again.

It’s not due to fuel, which would be reflected in core cash burn (which is much better in Q1 2021 than Q3 2020).


Should be interesting to see other numbers, I would be surprised to see other carriers report similar increases vs. Q3. DL & AA (AA especially) seem to be lower vs. Q3.

DL doesn’t conveniently provide their cash burn inclusive of all costs, so someone else would have to do those calculations for Q1 and Q3 to see direct comparison.

AA hasn’t reported their Q1 numbers yet, so not sure how you are getting that AA especially seem to be lower in Q1 than Q3...
 
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Midwestindy
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Posts: 6116
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:52 am

Polot wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Polot wrote:
.
Debt servicing payments are increasing as debt grows over the course of the pandemic. They have also started taking delivery of new aircraft (737maxes and 787s) again.

It’s not due to fuel, which would be reflected in core cash burn (which is much better in Q1 2021 than Q3 2020).


Should be interesting to see other numbers, I would be surprised to see other carriers report similar increases vs. Q3. DL & AA (AA especially) seem to be lower vs. Q3.

DL doesn’t confidently report their cash burn inclusive of lol costs, so someone else would have to do those calculations for Q1 and Q3 to see.

AA hasn’t report their Q1 numbers yet, so not sure how you are getting that AA especially seem to be lower in Q1 than Q3...


AA reported their estimates for Q1 last week, they should be very accurate since the quarter was over. They reported $27M/day in burn:

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... c220c54b2f
ORD & IND

AA & DL
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 9603
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United Airlines Q1 2021 results

Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:55 pm

airzona11 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
durangomac wrote:

Agreed, nice comparison. Can't wait to see AA, AS, B6, and WN.


I'll take a whack at a 6-way comparison when the income releases are out for the other four carriers. AA, AS and WN are due this week.


Please do! This is great analysis. Like you said, different strategies, fleets, markets. Going to be interesting this summer.


Done. B6 earnings came out this morning. See comparison here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1460261

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