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alohashirts
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Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:45 pm

DL’s SLC hub has been holding strong that last year compared to many other airports across the country. What do people think DL will do with SLC going forward whether it’s expanding or adding new routes, etc.?
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:24 pm

Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36
 
DLASFlyer
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:35 pm

DRO and CNY were added recently. FLG would be nice. ASE and EGE would be good ones for Delta to try again next winter. I would also love to see SLC-HDN and SLC-MTJ. The popularity of outdoor activities is here to stay.
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:36 pm

I probably would expect DL to add SLC-BUF/BDL/SDF/ORF/RIC/ROC nonstop service at some point with
(a) BUF, BDL, SDF, ORF, RIC, and ROC being top destinations without nonstop service to SLC and
(b) the connections that DL would be offering to the West Coast, Idaho, and Nevada through the SLC hub.

SLC-SDF is within the range of regional jets with SDF being 1409 miles from SLC and with DL Connection operating regional jets on routes longer than SLC-SDF.

SLC-BUF might also be within the range of E-175 regional jets with UA operating E-175 regional jets on the SFO-MSN/STL routes, which are slightly longer than SLC-BUF. The distance of SLC-BUF is 1710 miles whereas the distance of SFO-STL is 1735 miles and the distance of SFO-MSN is 1772 miles.

SLC-ROC is slightly shorter than SFO-MSN as the distance of SLC-ROC is 1762 miles, but SLC-ROC might possibly be within the range of E-175 regional jets with UA operating regional jets on the SFO-MSN route.

SLC-BDL/ORF/RIC would likely require mainline aircraft as SLC-BDL/ORF/RIC are longer than any nonstop routes that AA, DL, UA, or AS operate on regional jets. However, DL would be able to use a 109-seat A220-100 plane on these routes, whereas most other airlines would have to use bigger planes to serve these routes.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:38 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.
 
bradyj23
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:12 pm

ICN once international comes back. Pretty sure Ed is on record saying he wants to add it.
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:13 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60


Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


DL could probably fill an 109-seat A220-100 on the SLC-BUF/ROC routes if demand were at pre-pandemic levels as there were some passengers connecting to the West Coast from both BUF and ROC prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:30 pm

The biggest challenge with a lot of these routes is the fact the are relatively thin and eat-up a lot of aircraft block time.
That problem is going to be amplified in the near term with how much the fleet has retracted with accelerated 717 & CR2 retirements that stretch the 2-class RJs and small narrowbodies further.

Thus while some may come online, the bar is going to be a bit high in the near-term versus what can be flowed over DTW & MSP in many of those markets.
 
Cory6188
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:43 pm

Out of that list of cities, I think maybe BDL would perhaps have the biggest shot at working, just due to the decently high income level of BDL's catchment area, compared to BUF/ROC? I don't know enough about the demos of RIC to have a well-informed opinion.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:47 pm

I would expect the likes of SLC-FLG and SLC-SAF to be added before SLC-BUF/ROC.

And anyway, they still need to add back CMH, CLE, PIT, and other cities (which they should do over the summer).
Next flights:
Who knows? :/
 
alohashirts
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:06 pm

I would like to see SLC-SBA resumed. FLG would be a nice addition as well.

I always thought that DL should try SLC-SJO or SLC-GUA.
 
SESGDL
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:22 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


I'd say SLC-ELP is the only one that would make sense. That's easily within the range of a CR9 or E75. All the others could be better served via closer hubs with more demand.

Jeremy
 
niagara484
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:24 pm

alohashirts wrote:
I would like to see SLC-SBA resumed. FLG would be a nice addition as well.

I always thought that DL should try SLC-SJO or SLC-GUA.


SLC-SBA seems to have been off and on for a number of years. Didn't DL just restart it in 2019? It'd be nice if they could figure out how to make it stick.

This is not meant as a slam against SLC but I have some trouble seeing a lot of growth there over the next two years (other than aircraft upgauging) until the rest of the new terminal complex is opened. That includes the eastern half of Concourse A (20+ gates), the chunk of Concourse B up to the permanent access tunnel (6-8 gates?) and of course the tunnel itself. Until then SLC seems like it will be severely gate constrained, not just for DL but for all airlines.
 
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727tiger
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:25 pm

Personally, I'd like to see SLC-FLG added. We've started spending a couple of weeks in Sedona each year, and I'd prefer the FLG commute over the PHX commute as well as favoring DL, which is my preferred carrier on which I have status, over WN (PHX), UA (FLG or PHX) or AA (FLG or PHX). I realize FLG is most likely not a DL priority out of SLC, but personally that's what I'd like to see.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:46 pm

You're basing your claim on logical fallacies. COVID crippled travel to/from the Salt Lake City region -- it did not fare any materially better than the rest of the DL network. However, SLC's geography enabled it to endure less cumulative service cuts. For example, DL reduced ATL/DTW/MSP - LAS to a few weekly flights, whereas SLC maintained multiple daily. Not because travel between SLC & LAS remained strong -- but because it was the most economical option for DL to serve the market. The same is true of dozens of other markets.

SLC will probably record a small YOY growth in aircraft movements vs. the rest of the DL network, as recovery begins.
 
washingtonflyer
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:22 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


Q3 2019 PDEWs have -zero- correlation to PDEWs today. The only one that remotely makes sense to me is ELP.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:39 pm

Edmonton might be an option. They did serve this route in the past, but apparently not anymore.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:25 pm

The new SLC is great - I visited Park City back in February and was very impressed by the new terminal. What an upgrade over the old one!

That said, pretty much all of the terminal space at the airport might very well be more or less spoken for until the additional gates open in 2024. Obviously those gates, whether in Concourse A or Concourse B, can't be built until the old concourses are demolished. In the meantime, it seems like a variety of carriers - not just DL - have been interested in adding service at SLC lately. WN will soon offer nonstop service to AUS and, surprisingly, TPA (that's quite a long route for WN, overflying many stations where pax could easily connect or make a quick stop en route). F9 recently announced nonstop services to ORD and DFW; perhaps not surprising since they are the only ULCC carrier at SLC, but you can't help but wonder if G4 and/or NK might be interested in trying SLC too. Even AS resumed LAX/SAN-SLC nonstop services - I, for one, certainly never expected to see those flights come back!

As far as DL is concerned, nonstop services to popular leisure markets like ANC, CNY, DRO and FAI resume next month. I would not be surprised to see other service resumptions thereafter: ASE, KOA and SBA spring to mind. Even places like LIH, MRY, RSW and STS could work. Longer term, could they give London and Asia another try?
Flying in the middle seat of coach is much better than not flying at all!
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:03 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
Longer term, could they give London and Asia another try?


The downside of Asia from Salt Lake City is that you're practically overflying Seattle, which seems to be Delta's primary hub to Asia. Other than O/D traffic, there would be no point in serving Asia from Salt Lake City. There's hardly any domestic destination they serve from Salt Lake City but not from Seattle.

As for London, sure it's a big destination but it would be a dead end. They have no partner airline in London to take passengers further to their destination. They do serve Amsterdam and Paris Charles de Gaulle from Salt Lake City, from both of those places their partner Air France-KLM can provide connections to London or anywhere else in Europe for that matter.
 
DLASFlyer
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:04 pm

SurfandSnow wrote:
That said, pretty much all of the terminal space at the airport might very well be more or less spoken for until the additional gates open in 2024. Obviously those gates, whether in Concourse A or Concourse B, can't be built until the old concourses are demolished.


The old concourses are already gone. New construction is in full swing.
 
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spinotter
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:22 pm

bradyj23 wrote:
ICN once international comes back. Pretty sure Ed is on record saying he wants to add it.


Salt Lake City to Seoul? Doesn't sound too reasonable to me. But let the future tell.
 
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Polot
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:24 pm

SESGDL wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


I'd say SLC-ELP is the only one that would make sense. That's easily within the range of a CR9 or E75. All the others could be better served via closer hubs with more demand.

Jeremy

DL actually tried SLC-ELP starting Fall 2018. It lasted about 9 months before being dropped in Summer 2019 because of poor performance. Didn’t even make it to Covid.

PatrickZ80 wrote:
SurfandSnow wrote:
Longer term, could they give London and Asia another try?


The downside of Asia from Salt Lake City is that you're practically overflying Seattle, which seems to be Delta's primary hub to Asia. Other than O/D traffic, there would be no point in serving Asia from Salt Lake City. There's hardly any domestic destination they serve from Salt Lake City but not from Seattle.

Do also doesn’t really have great aircraft for SLC-Asia. The A332 struggles due to SLC’s altitude performance hit, and the A350 (and previously 777) are overkill in terms of seats. It’s a market where DL would benefit from having A338 or 788s.
 
MrPeanut
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:12 pm

727tiger wrote:
Personally, I'd like to see SLC-FLG added. We've started spending a couple of weeks in Sedona each year, and I'd prefer the FLG commute over the PHX commute as well as favoring DL, which is my preferred carrier on which I have status, over WN (PHX), UA (FLG or PHX) or AA (FLG or PHX). I realize FLG is most likely not a DL priority out of SLC, but personally that's what I'd like to see.


Not as crazy as it sounds. AA launched FLG-DFW, UA recently launched FLG-DEN and announced DEN-PRC. So flights into the northern Arizona area are becoming more popular. I am surprised DL has yet to venture into the FLG market.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:07 pm

jplatts wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60


Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


DL could probably fill an 109-seat A220-100 on the SLC-BUF/ROC routes if demand were at pre-pandemic levels as there were some passengers connecting to the West Coast from both BUF and ROC prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.


I know delta has done a one-off from SYR-SLC on the A319 multiple times. SYR is 2hrs from ROC/ALB/BUF so they could capture all of that traffic
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SteelChair
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 7:42 am

I've always thought that the A220 seems tailor made for SLC.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:32 am

bradyj23 wrote:
ICN once international comes back. Pretty sure Ed is on record saying he wants to add it.


It will be a while before international comes back and demand to Asia in particular, will remain very weak as it is heavily dictated by business travel demand. ICN can work out of PDX due to business links + connectivity over ICN with KE, but out of SLC, it's doubtful but not impossible.
 
jb1087xna
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:33 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


I guess my question would be when does it start making sense to connect in SLC versus ATL and where do smaller cities with SLC service rank? Being around XNA here, I think about TUL with 2x daily to SLC (roughly 150 seats). OKC would be a similar story. I can't imagine either of them is significantly higher in PDEW than that list that was pulled together unless the flights somehow generated previously non-existent demand. I get that most of the cities in that list would be overflying ATL; but routes like XNA and LIT would not be.
 
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Polot
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:39 pm

jb1087xna wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here were the Q3 2019 PDEW's of top domestic destinations without nonstop service from SLC:
SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


I guess my question would be when does it start making sense to connect in SLC versus ATL and where do smaller cities with SLC service rank? Being around XNA here, I think about TUL with 2x daily to SLC (roughly 150 seats). OKC would be a similar story. I can't imagine either of them is significantly higher in PDEW than that list that was pulled together unless the flights somehow generated previously non-existent demand. I get that most of the cities in that list would be overflying ATL; but routes like XNA and LIT would not be.

That really depends on where the demand to those/from those smaller cities is, i.e. do they get a lot of traffic from out West or is most of the demand primarily to/from the East coast (which, remember, is also more heavily populated).
 
jb1087xna
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:48 pm

Polot wrote:
jb1087xna wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


I guess my question would be when does it start making sense to connect in SLC versus ATL and where do smaller cities with SLC service rank? Being around XNA here, I think about TUL with 2x daily to SLC (roughly 150 seats). OKC would be a similar story. I can't imagine either of them is significantly higher in PDEW than that list that was pulled together unless the flights somehow generated previously non-existent demand. I get that most of the cities in that list would be overflying ATL; but routes like XNA and LIT would not be.

That really depends on where the demand to those/from those smaller cities is, i.e. do they get a lot of traffic from out West or is most of the demand primarily to/from the East coast (which, remember, is also more heavily populated).


Absolutely a fair point. To what you mentioned, IMO, you'd really have to take other western cities into consideration. IE, adding XNA-LAS/LAX/SEA/SFO etc, into SLC to get a better picture. For p2p routes with little to no connections assumed, the singular city PDEW would seem a good indicator in my mind. But not necessarily for a hub where connections would be the norm.
 
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Polot
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:56 pm

jb1087xna wrote:
Polot wrote:
jb1087xna wrote:

I guess my question would be when does it start making sense to connect in SLC versus ATL and where do smaller cities with SLC service rank? Being around XNA here, I think about TUL with 2x daily to SLC (roughly 150 seats). OKC would be a similar story. I can't imagine either of them is significantly higher in PDEW than that list that was pulled together unless the flights somehow generated previously non-existent demand. I get that most of the cities in that list would be overflying ATL; but routes like XNA and LIT would not be.

That really depends on where the demand to those/from those smaller cities is, i.e. do they get a lot of traffic from out West or is most of the demand primarily to/from the East coast (which, remember, is also more heavily populated).


Absolutely a fair point. To what you mentioned, IMO, you'd really have to take other western cities into consideration. IE, adding XNA-LAS/LAX/SEA/SFO etc, into SLC to get a better picture. For p2p routes with little to no connections assumed, the singular city PDEW would seem a good indicator in my mind. But not necessarily for a hub where connections would be the norm.

I don’t think you will see a lot SLC routes to small cities in other hub’s “territory” (eg the Southeast and ATL).


One thing people need to keep in mind is that DL is going to be a lot smaller on the lower end. The 50 seaters are going away except for at risk flying. 717s are going away earlier than planned. Depending on scope the 50-76 seater fleet size may have to be reduced to match the smaller mainline fleet and stay within allowed caps. All this means is that A220s coming in that were originally going to be expansion are now going to have to do more replacement. 76 seaters have to help cover 50 seater routes, A220s/remaining 717s have to help cover 76 seater routes, A319s have to help cover 717/A220 routes etc. So there is going to be less connecting small dots to further hubs with smaller O&D traffic. DL just doesn’t have the planes.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:24 pm

The other thing to consider, is that a lot of midsize and all large west coast cities have DL nonstop flights to ATL/DTW/MSP.

So a BUF/ROC/BDL-SLC nonstop really only eliminates a connection if the BUF/ROC/BDL pax is either going to SLC directly, or to a very small Mountain West community not served by ATL/DTW/MSP.

Basically, it’s not worth it for DL to use their limited small-size planes on midsize Eastern cities to SLC, when a lot of the pax can still get one stop connections over ATL/DTW/MSP when heading west. For the few that can’t, a two stop routing isn’t the end of the world.

If smaller spare frames do become available, DL would probably be better off adding SLC from more smaller to midsize cities in the western Midwest (Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, etc.). For those cities’ pax traveling west, connecting in ATL/DTW is backtracking, and MSP is break even at best.
Last edited by kavok on Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:34 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:30 pm

Yep, I mentioned that point upstream. The challenge with a lot of these hypothetical SLC additions in they are long and eat up a lot of aircraft time.

Routes like the following, will require 9-10 hours of aircraft time. That effectively dedicates an aircraft during core/peak hours, unless they are going to be flying them as RONs or red-eyes.
Take some of the routes like SLC-PHL/DCA, those flights depart SLC around 9:30am eastbound and turn back to SLC and the aicraft isn't back in SLC until 8pm. Basically they route aircraft something like FCA-SLC-DCA/PHL-SMF. 4 segments in the operating day. That gets to be a challenge with a lot of these thinner routes and being able to dedicate CR9/E75, A319, A220 aircraft. SLC see 717s anymore. DL doesn't fly red-eyes on CR9/E75s. I don't know if there are any red-eyes yet on A220s.

SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36
 
WN732
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:27 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yep, I mentioned that point upstream. The challenge with a lot of these hypothetical SLC additions in they are long and eat up a lot of aircraft time.

Routes like the following, will require 9-10 hours of aircraft time. That effectively dedicates an aircraft during core/peak hours, unless they are going to be flying them as RONs or red-eyes.
Take some of the routes like SLC-PHL/DCA, those flights depart SLC around 9:30am eastbound and turn back to SLC and the aicraft isn't back in SLC until 8pm. Basically they route aircraft something like FCA-SLC-DCA/PHL-SMF. 4 segments in the operating day. That gets to be a challenge with a lot of these thinner routes and being able to dedicate CR9/E75, A319, A220 aircraft. SLC see 717s anymore. DL doesn't fly red-eyes on CR9/E75s. I don't know if there are any red-eyes yet on A220s.

SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


I don't think they will add ELP again for a while. They just pulled that market (again) before the pandemic started.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:27 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yep, I mentioned that point upstream. The challenge with a lot of these hypothetical SLC additions in they are long and eat up a lot of aircraft time.

Routes like the following, will require 9-10 hours of aircraft time. That effectively dedicates an aircraft during core/peak hours, unless they are going to be flying them as RONs or red-eyes.
Take some of the routes like SLC-PHL/DCA, those flights depart SLC around 9:30am eastbound and turn back to SLC and the aicraft isn't back in SLC until 8pm. Basically they route aircraft something like FCA-SLC-DCA/PHL-SMF. 4 segments in the operating day. That gets to be a challenge with a lot of these thinner routes and being able to dedicate CR9/E75, A319, A220 aircraft. SLC see 717s anymore. DL doesn't fly red-eyes on CR9/E75s. I don't know if there are any red-eyes yet on A220s.

SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


These points are not wrong, but DL has had some success growing certain markets east of the Mississippi. Look at BNA - six or seven years ago SLC-BNA was a single daily CR9 and today (even in the midst of the pandemic) it has a 738 and a 739. The market dynamics are not apples to apples, of course, but I don't think growth on the thinner SLC stuff is necessarily a lost cause.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8696
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:32 pm

Correct, but BNA is an exponentially larger and growing market, where DL has a strong market presence and a natural add. BNA also has SEA, LAX, SLC service on DL.
Unlike say a place like SDF or CHS.

Markets like IND, CLE, PIT, MSN need to come back first before we even thing about talking about some the next tier down markets.
 
IADCA
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:18 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
jplatts wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Not one of those airport pairs has a count high enough to fill an aircraft with adequate range, even ignoring numbers lost to DL or competitor connections.


DL could probably fill an 109-seat A220-100 on the SLC-BUF/ROC routes if demand were at pre-pandemic levels as there were some passengers connecting to the West Coast from both BUF and ROC prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.


I know delta has done a one-off from SYR-SLC on the A319 multiple times. SYR is 2hrs from ROC/ALB/BUF so they could capture all of that traffic


But Syracuse is significantly further from Toronto than either BUF or ROC is, which is probably where a significant slice of that demand in the 2019 data was coming from.

Cubsrule wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yep, I mentioned that point upstream. The challenge with a lot of these hypothetical SLC additions in they are long and eat up a lot of aircraft time.

Routes like the following, will require 9-10 hours of aircraft time. That effectively dedicates an aircraft during core/peak hours, unless they are going to be flying them as RONs or red-eyes.
Take some of the routes like SLC-PHL/DCA, those flights depart SLC around 9:30am eastbound and turn back to SLC and the aicraft isn't back in SLC until 8pm. Basically they route aircraft something like FCA-SLC-DCA/PHL-SMF. 4 segments in the operating day. That gets to be a challenge with a lot of these thinner routes and being able to dedicate CR9/E75, A319, A220 aircraft. SLC see 717s anymore. DL doesn't fly red-eyes on CR9/E75s. I don't know if there are any red-eyes yet on A220s.

SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


These points are not wrong, but DL has had some success growing certain markets east of the Mississippi. Look at BNA - six or seven years ago SLC-BNA was a single daily CR9 and today (even in the midst of the pandemic) it has a 738 and a 739. The market dynamics are not apples to apples, of course, but I don't think growth on the thinner SLC stuff is necessarily a lost cause.


Obviously you know BNA better than most on here, but it being a significant inbound domestic tourism destination makes a huge difference during the pandemic. That's just aggregated mountain state and west coast demand being fed through SLC. We'll see how sustainable it is. Of course the amazing growth of Nashville over the past few years will help, especially the double-edged sword of California transplants that seem to be splattering on my roof even elsewhere in Tennessee.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:25 pm

IADCA wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yep, I mentioned that point upstream. The challenge with a lot of these hypothetical SLC additions in they are long and eat up a lot of aircraft time.

Routes like the following, will require 9-10 hours of aircraft time. That effectively dedicates an aircraft during core/peak hours, unless they are going to be flying them as RONs or red-eyes.
Take some of the routes like SLC-PHL/DCA, those flights depart SLC around 9:30am eastbound and turn back to SLC and the aicraft isn't back in SLC until 8pm. Basically they route aircraft something like FCA-SLC-DCA/PHL-SMF. 4 segments in the operating day. That gets to be a challenge with a lot of these thinner routes and being able to dedicate CR9/E75, A319, A220 aircraft. SLC see 717s anymore. DL doesn't fly red-eyes on CR9/E75s. I don't know if there are any red-eyes yet on A220s.

SLC-BUF - 66
SLC-ROC - 60
SLC-BDL - 55
SLC-RIC - 55
SLC-ELP - 46
SLC-JAX - 45
SLC-ORF - 44
SLC-SDF - 40
SLC-GRR - 38
SLC-CHS - 36


These points are not wrong, but DL has had some success growing certain markets east of the Mississippi. Look at BNA - six or seven years ago SLC-BNA was a single daily CR9 and today (even in the midst of the pandemic) it has a 738 and a 739. The market dynamics are not apples to apples, of course, but I don't think growth on the thinner SLC stuff is necessarily a lost cause.


Obviously you know BNA better than most on here, but it being a significant inbound domestic tourism destination makes a huge difference during the pandemic. That's just aggregated mountain state and west coast demand being fed through SLC. We'll see how sustainable it is. Of course the amazing growth of Nashville over the past few years will help, especially the double-edged sword of California transplants that seem to be splattering on my roof even elsewhere in Tennessee.


Sorting out the various reasons for growth is obviously more art than science; I'd say that the gauge is a pandemic effect but the frequency and upgauge to mainline are not. The thing to remember about the pandemic effect on tourism, though, is that it ought to help SLC in all of the markets we're talking about because SLC is an excellent gateway to the outdoors destinations that seem to be experiencing the best growth during the pandemic.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2214
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:36 pm

Polot wrote:
jb1087xna wrote:
Polot wrote:

One thing people need to keep in mind is that DL is going to be a lot smaller on the lower end. The 50 seaters are going away except for at risk flying. 717s are going away earlier than planned. Depending on scope the 50-76 seater fleet size may have to be reduced to match the smaller mainline fleet and stay within allowed caps. All this means is that A220s coming in that were originally going to be expansion are now going to have to do more replacement. 76 seaters have to help cover 50 seater routes, A220s/remaining 717s have to help cover 76 seater routes, A319s have to help cover 717/A220 routes etc. So there is going to be less connecting small dots to further hubs with smaller O&D traffic. DL just doesn’t have the planes.


This was planned by DL pre-pandemic it's just being accelerated by DL For Example: At South Bend, Indiana all SBN-ATL and SBN-MSP flying was planned for CRJ900's with the possiblilty of a morning Mainline flight to ATL which was in negotiations. Only the short flights to DTW were going to be left with CRJ200's and I assume those will be at risk flying.

Right now SBN-ATL is being flown by Endeavor CRJ900's and DTW by Endeavor and some Skywest CRJ200's. SBN-MSP is returning in May with a Skywest CRJ900.

From what I read Delta at the moment is flying 135 CRJ900's and only 50 CRJ200's and I think 17 CRJ700's. So yes the CRJ200's are going bye bye.
 
rhill107
Posts: 4
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 4:39 pm

What about RSW-SLC? Delta doesn't have any non-stop service from RSW further west than MSP while UA has IAH and DEN, AA to DFW. I would think RSW could support an A220-100 or A319 at least once a day to SLC. Perhaps with continuing service on the same aircraft to SEA to compete with AS seasonal service to SEA and LAX.
 
alohashirts
Topic Author
Posts: 102
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:45 pm

Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:13 pm

rhill107 wrote:
What about RSW-SLC? Delta doesn't have any non-stop service from RSW further west than MSP while UA has IAH and DEN, AA to DFW. I would think RSW could support an A220-100 or A319 at least once a day to SLC. Perhaps with continuing service on the same aircraft to SEA to compete with AS seasonal service to SEA and LAX.

I think SLC-RSW would actually work very well. Especially the connections SLC could offer and simply avoiding connecting in ATL is enticing say if you’re flying for example RSW-SLC-SMF/PDX/SNA/etc.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11537
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:26 pm

alohashirts wrote:
rhill107 wrote:
What about RSW-SLC? Delta doesn't have any non-stop service from RSW further west than MSP while UA has IAH and DEN, AA to DFW. I would think RSW could support an A220-100 or A319 at least once a day to SLC. Perhaps with continuing service on the same aircraft to SEA to compete with AS seasonal service to SEA and LAX.

I think SLC-RSW would actually work very well. Especially the connections SLC could offer and simply avoiding connecting in ATL is enticing say if you’re flying for example RSW-SLC-SMF/PDX/SNA/etc.

There is no compelling reason to offer those connections with SLC over ATL, when the distances are about the same or even shorter for ATL. RSW-ATL-SEA is literally 20 miles (miles, not nm) longer than going via SLC. RSW-ATL-LAX is almost 100 miles shorter than via SLC. With ATL DL is also offering customers close to 10 flights throughout the day versus one.

RSW-SLC is a near transcon with too small of a local market that flies too close to DL’s largest hub. DL doesn’t fly further west from there than MSP because they don’t have a southern mid continental hub in Texas, and has an excellent hub in ATL to funnel traffic to RSW. Nothing wrong with that- DL can’t be everything to everyone.
Last edited by Polot on Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3749
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:27 pm

Hopefully the city finishing the rebuild.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 387
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:23 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
These points are not wrong, but DL has had some success growing certain markets east of the Mississippi. Look at BNA - six or seven years ago SLC-BNA was a single daily CR9 and today (even in the midst of the pandemic) it has a 738 and a 739. The market dynamics are not apples to apples, of course, but I don't think growth on the thinner SLC stuff is necessarily a lost cause.

...

Sorting out the various reasons for growth is obviously more art than science; I'd say that the gauge is a pandemic effect but the frequency and upgauge to mainline are not. The thing to remember about the pandemic effect on tourism, though, is that it ought to help SLC in all of the markets we're talking about because SLC is an excellent gateway to the outdoors destinations that seem to be experiencing the best growth during the pandemic.


As mentioned, it's more about BNA than SLC. Nashville continues to capture a lot of the entertainment-related business that use to be centered around Los Angeles, growing beyond its historical Country Music-related roots, and building business that would've naturally went to the Atlanta area. Commercial rents throughout Nashville are similar to those throughout the West Los Angeles region -- something unthinkable just a few years ago.

The probable permanent decline in business travel makes long, thin routes that bypass ATL, DTW & MSP uneconomical. As we get a clearer idea of long-term trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see some long-thin routes (e.g. CLE) that existed pre-COVID shelved indefinitely. And while DEN's tourist traffic arriving by air exploded over the past ten years, I don't expect SLC to replicate its success -- DEN is better positioned as a hub, and had room for low cost carriers to grow; it's also a more rounded destination (and a better mix of business / tourist traffic) than SLC. Nor is it clear pandemic trends will continue -- IMO, it's far more likely people will be packing Disney World, the Strip, various beaches, etc. than exploring our natural wonderlands.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8696
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 6:36 pm

Yep....those outdoor recreation / national park regions aren't really capable of handling or even really sustaining where they are at now. The tourism related infrastructure, local workforce, and carrying capacity of these parks and regions just are not built for mass-travel the way many of the places mentioned above area.

There just aren't that many more beds available in these mountain towns / regions, and by next year all the senior bus trip / tour operations will be back in full force gobbling up rooms. And people will be hopefully flooding back over to Europe if they haven't been able to take that dream trip for 3+ years now.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 5061
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:03 pm

For the time being Delta needs to operate in an airport still very under construction. It is true o&d was one of the lowest declines in the country on a percentage basis, but delta isnt in a growing position right now. I dont think that is the primary goal of SLC at the moment. They fast tracked more construction here and need to get that done ASAP, that is the goal for everyone. Finishing the airport is the short term goal, not huge growth.

Only Denver had less of a decline on o&d for a hub iirc. SLC demand was very high during the pandemic, lots of outdoor tourism parks, skiing, hiking, etc has been booming.
 
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vatveng
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:33 pm

jplatts wrote:
I probably would expect DL to add SLC-BUF/BDL/SDF/ORF/RIC/ROC nonstop service at some point with
(a) BUF, BDL, SDF, ORF, RIC, and ROC being top destinations without nonstop service to SLC and
(b) the connections that DL would be offering to the West Coast, Idaho, and Nevada through the SLC hub.

[...]

SLC-BDL/ORF/RIC would likely require mainline aircraft as SLC-BDL/ORF/RIC are longer than any nonstop routes that AA, DL, UA, or AS operate on regional jets. However, DL would be able to use a 109-seat A220-100 plane on these routes, whereas most other airlines would have to use bigger planes to serve these routes.


Pre-COVID, I could see these happening. Now, it's not likely unless there is enough traffic from ORF/RIC to smaller western cities that you can only get to from SLC and not from ATL or DTW without a double-connect. But there's no advantage to just having yet another hub to get from Virginia to the West Coast when ATL and DTW can get you to LAX just as easily.
 
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YQBexYHZBGM
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:01 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:
Edmonton might be an option. They did serve this route in the past, but apparently not anymore.

Post-COVID, hopefully DL will resume YEG-SLC, but currently only YVR, YYC, YYZ and YUL are authorized to receive transborder flights. Post-COVID, DL could potentially make a bigger push into other Western Canadian destinations from SLC. I should think that the significant LDS community in Alberta and elsewhere in Western Canada would generate some traffic to and from SLC, in addition to onward destinations via the hub.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 387
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:05 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
For the time being Delta needs to operate in an airport still very under construction. It is true o&d was one of the lowest declines in the country on a percentage basis, but delta isnt in a growing position right now. I dont think that is the primary goal of SLC at the moment. They fast tracked more construction here and need to get that done ASAP, that is the goal for everyone. Finishing the airport is the short term goal, not huge growth.

Only Denver had less of a decline on o&d for a hub iirc. SLC demand was very high during the pandemic, lots of outdoor tourism parks, skiing, hiking, etc has been booming.


It’s frequently repeated within these forums that SLC endured one of the lowest drops in local traffic, yet not one person has presented any statistics to support that claim.

Yes, SLC endured one of the smallest drops in overall passengers, but that’s because of its location — rather than flying empty planes 2,000ish miles from ATL, DTW and JFK, DL simply pushed the traffic through SLC. For weeks, service to SAN, LAS, SNA, etc. was limited to SLC plus a few weekly frequencies from ATL. Ultimately, SLC’s “success” during the pandemic can largely be attributed to the CARES act - which kept a lot of capacity that otherwise would’ve vanished afloat — and SLC’s location, which made it the most viable market to serve the Western Markets.

People who traveled to national park, remote places, etc. did so to escape crowds and COVID. They primarily traveled via car (they’re trying to avoid COVID). Take Zion... it’s booming, but the lion’s share of visitors are traveling via car primarily from SoCal (and LAS is the closest major airprot, anyway).
 
fmi1
Posts: 27
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:48 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Correct, but BNA is an exponentially larger and growing market, where DL has a strong market presence and a natural add. BNA also has SEA, LAX, SLC service on DL.
Unlike say a place like SDF or CHS.

Markets like IND, CLE, PIT, MSN need to come back first before we even thing about talking about some the next tier down markets.



PIT-SLC is back sept 7th!!!!
 
Chuska
Posts: 503
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Re: Delta’s SLC hub-What’s next?

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:04 am

maps4ltd wrote:
I would expect the likes of SLC-FLG and SLC-SAF to be added before SLC-BUF/ROC.


DL actually announced SLC-SAF back in 2007 but there was a problem with the airport followed by the recession so it never got started. I'm surprised they haven't done it yet. In 2007 DL tried some other wild routes like SLC to BLI, ACV, GCC, RKS, SLE, YKM, and YUM. Also tried DRO back then and now its coming back. SLC-LWS began in 2007 and survived.

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