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xwb565
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Emirates wants talks on 777x

Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:04 pm

Strange that the biggest customer has not yet been made aware of the aircraft's performance with regards to guarantees.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-04-21/

"We would like more visibility on when we are going to receive this aeroplane and what exactly they are going to be able to do with regard to the performance on the contractual side, including propulsion," Emirates President Tim Clark told the online World Aviation Festival.
 
xwb565
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:05 pm

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news ... erformance

“We got very much involved in the design of the aircraft back in early 2010," Clark said at the World Aviation Festival virtual conference on Wednesday. "We have no visibility either on delivery or on performance at this stage of the game. The first test flight took place in July 2018 and we’re now in April 2021. These test flights must have given them evidence of what the aircraft can do. We’re looking to see it.” Clark reiterated his belief that the airline will not get its first 777X in 2023 as last scheduled and that Boeing will push back deliveries further, to 2024. Emirates originally expected to receive its first 777X in 202
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:09 pm

Surely he means January 2020 right for FF. but indeed very strange. But then again if we look at N779XY has flown like 10 times in the past 8 months or so. It hasn’t really done much
 
jbs2886
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:17 pm

xwb565 wrote:
Strange that the biggest customer has not yet been made aware of the aircraft's performance with regards to guarantees.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-04-21/

"We would like more visibility on when we are going to receive this aeroplane and what exactly they are going to be able to do with regard to the performance on the contractual side, including propulsion," Emirates President Tim Clark told the online World Aviation Festival.


He wants preliminary information to then hold Boeing's feet to the fire - its unrealistic. He says he is preserving Emirates' interest, well Boeing is preserving its interests. I highly doubt Boeing is not communicating what it thinks is appropriate as he seems to imply.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Wed Apr 21, 2021 9:29 pm

I think any PAE spotter would be able to help with 777X visibility, get a good camera and an umbrella.
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jholio
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Wed Apr 21, 2021 10:21 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Surely he means January 2020 right for FF. but indeed very strange. But then again if we look at N779XY has flown like 10 times in the past 8 months or so. It hasn’t really done much


Could he mean test flights of just the GE9X, maybe on the GE testbed? It looks like GE finished the test campaign at the end of November 2019, so maybe that's what he's referring to. I'm not sure when the first flight of the engine was.
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:21 pm

This quote was informative. It seems like the FAA is really cracking down and finally doing their job.

"Boeing build very good aeroplanes. They design very good aeroplanes I don't want to cast any doubt on that at all. It's simply how they are built and under what conditions they are now going to be built, what new quality control regulatory requirements are coming in. That is slowing the whole process."
 
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keesje
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 12:47 pm

morrisond wrote:
This quote was informative. It seems like the FAA is really cracking down and finally doing their job.

"Boeing build very good aeroplanes. They design very good aeroplanes I don't want to cast any doubt on that at all. It's simply how they are built and under what conditions they are now going to be built, what new quality control regulatory requirements are coming in. That is slowing the whole process."


Clark mentions EASA.
Clark said he had been told that some of the 777X systems had not met European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) expectations and were now going to be changed.


Launching customer Lufthansa would have to comply with EASA requirements. It seems Emirates authorities are working close together with them. That was already decided back in 2019. https://www.businessinsider.nl/boeing-7 ... =true&r=US
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
KFTG
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:03 pm

Opus99 wrote:
But then again if we look at N779XY has flown like 10 times in the past 8 months or so. It hasn’t really done much

???? There is more than one 77X prototype...
 
744SPX
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:09 pm

I have to say that I agree with Clark on this. Boeing hasn't said squat on 777X performance and they have been flight testing it for 15 months.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:10 pm

KFTG wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
But then again if we look at N779XY has flown like 10 times in the past 8 months or so. It hasn’t really done much

???? There is more than one 77X prototype...

That is the frame that tests engine performance specifically
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:16 pm

I hope the 777x doesn't turn out to be Boeing's MD-11... not achieving the desired efficiency gains over it's predecesor... it's been quiet on the performance front...
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SteelChair
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:19 pm

There has to be some concern that Clark is setting the stage for a pull down in orders. The real problem is lack of demand for international customers, but he'll frame it as problems with Boeing’s performance in order to get out of his commitments, or to get a much better deal. Emirates seems to me analogous to Southwest for Boeing’s narrowbody business. If Boeing lose Emirates, their widebody program is severely harmed, they can't let that happen.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:25 pm

SteelChair wrote:
There has to be some concern that Clark is setting the stage for a pull down in orders. The real problem is lack of demand for international customers, but he'll frame it as problems with Boeing’s performance in order to get out of his commitments, or to get a much better deal. Emirates seems to me analogous to Southwest for Boeing’s narrowbody business. If Boeing lose Emirates, their widebody program is severely harmed, they can't let that happen.

They won’t lose Emirates. Will they lose some 777X frames to the 787-10 or something? Oh for sure. Maybe about 30 frames to 45 787-10 frames. Emirates is here to stay and continue to do business with Boeing and as for Boeing their situation will continue to improve. They just need to keep their heads down and keep pushing
 
smartplane
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 8:38 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
xwb565 wrote:
Strange that the biggest customer has not yet been made aware of the aircraft's performance with regards to guarantees.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-04-21/

"We would like more visibility on when we are going to receive this aeroplane and what exactly they are going to be able to do with regard to the performance on the contractual side, including propulsion," Emirates President Tim Clark told the online World Aviation Festival.


He wants preliminary information to then hold Boeing's feet to the fire - its unrealistic. He says he is preserving Emirates' interest, well Boeing is preserving its interests. I highly doubt Boeing is not communicating what it thinks is appropriate as he seems to imply.

Two factors in play.

First. Hard performance numbers are a pre-requisite for orders switching from conditional to unconditional, which triggers customers and financiers making decisions, and the start of milestone payments. Withhold data - delay decisions, especially if potentially adverse.

Two. When orders (more likely tranches within orders) become unconditional, Tier 3 compensation credits start to accrue.

So no hard, ambitious performance data for customers keeps orders in limbo (on the books), and minimises compensation.
 
djpearman
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:41 pm

morrisond wrote:
This quote was informative. It seems like the FAA is really cracking down and finally doing their job.

"Boeing build very good aeroplanes. They design very good aeroplanes I don't want to cast any doubt on that at all. It's simply how they are built and under what conditions they are now going to be built, what new quality control regulatory requirements are coming in. That is slowing the whole process."


That's a very optimistic interpretation of the quote. To me, questioning Boeing's ability to make, check and deliver aircraft to specification and on time is pretty damning. Especially when coming from the largest customer for the type. And to subsequently hope for (not expect) "grown-up" conversations... Ouch!

Also, the statement in the article:

"We haven't (got) visibility on either delivery or on performance at this stage in the game. So we are kind of reserving our position on where we are on this aeroplane."

A pessimistic spin makes that sounds like they might be considering an order retraction... or at least issuing a threat in that direction.
 
Opus99
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:53 pm

djpearman wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This quote was informative. It seems like the FAA is really cracking down and finally doing their job.

"Boeing build very good aeroplanes. They design very good aeroplanes I don't want to cast any doubt on that at all. It's simply how they are built and under what conditions they are now going to be built, what new quality control regulatory requirements are coming in. That is slowing the whole process."


That's a very optimistic interpretation of the quote. To me, questioning Boeing's ability to make, check and deliver aircraft to specification and on time is pretty damning. Especially when coming from the largest customer for the type. And to subsequently hope for (not expect) "grown-up" conversations... Ouch!

Also, the statement in the article:

"We haven't (got) visibility on either delivery or on performance at this stage in the game. So we are kind of reserving our position on where we are on this aeroplane."

A pessimistic spin makes that sounds like they might be considering an order retraction... or at least issuing a threat in that direction.

Tim Clark talks too much for it to be damning, now it’s just like clockwork of when he’s going to open his mouth and say something. In the same vein he praised Boeing for designing very good aircraft. The reality is in a normal certification they would have all that information would be given to him because of the tight schedule. That schedule no longer exists. He wants guarantees that Boeing probably have never given before, he has said it himself. Why is he using his wounds from the 380 to start barking everywhere.

He will change regardless of whatever that performance is. He’s overexposed to large jets He can’t just open his mouth and say it.

I expect 787-10 switch sooner or later. I am not mad at that
 
morrisond
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:04 pm

djpearman wrote:
morrisond wrote:
This quote was informative. It seems like the FAA is really cracking down and finally doing their job.

"Boeing build very good aeroplanes. They design very good aeroplanes I don't want to cast any doubt on that at all. It's simply how they are built and under what conditions they are now going to be built, what new quality control regulatory requirements are coming in. That is slowing the whole process."


That's a very optimistic interpretation of the quote. To me, questioning Boeing's ability to make, check and deliver aircraft to specification and on time is pretty damning. Especially when coming from the largest customer for the type. And to subsequently hope for (not expect) "grown-up" conversations... Ouch!

Also, the statement in the article:

"We haven't (got) visibility on either delivery or on performance at this stage in the game. So we are kind of reserving our position on where we are on this aeroplane."

A pessimistic spin makes that sounds like they might be considering an order retraction... or at least issuing a threat in that direction.


I don't get how you got that from what I wrote - I didn't think it was very optimistic at all and it was quite damning.

Based on what else you wrote I guess anything less than "Boeing will never be able to certify another aircraft again and it's time to shut the company down" would be deemed sufficient.

Obviously you are one of those who need to spend some time perusing the AD websites. Airplanes are not simple machines and changes are made continuously in all types as experience is gained - things that were missed in the initial certification.
 
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DL747400
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:09 am

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I hope the 777x doesn't turn out to be Boeing's MD-11... not achieving the desired efficiency gains over it's predecesor... it's been quiet on the performance front...


A good question to ask is: "How many existing Boeing employees came from the McDonnell Douglas acquisition?"

Mindset is infectious and crosses corporate cultural lines quite easily.

IMO, present-day BOEING resembles the old McDonnell Douglas in many ways (none of them good).
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sxf24
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:28 am

744SPX wrote:
I have to say that I agree with Clark on this. Boeing hasn't said squat on 777X performance and they have been flight testing it for 15 months.


Don’t confuse lack of public comments with absence of customer communication.

DL747400 wrote:
FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
I hope the 777x doesn't turn out to be Boeing's MD-11... not achieving the desired efficiency gains over it's predecesor... it's been quiet on the performance front...


A good question to ask is: "How many existing Boeing employees came from the McDonnell Douglas acquisition?"

Mindset is infectious and crosses corporate cultural lines quite easily.

IMO, present-day BOEING resembles the old McDonnell Douglas in many ways (none of them good).


Very, very few. It was almost 25 years ago.
 
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zeke
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:36 am

“ Emirates President: Boeing 777X Program ‘In A State Of Disarray”

Source https://simpleflying.com/emirates-777x- ... -disarray/

STC gave an interview earlier this week indicating he will not get any aircraft until 2025

“I did have an engagement a couple of weeks ago with the head of Boeing civil Stan Deal. We were discussing mainly things around the 777 programme, which is in a state of disarray at the moment… Now, not being able to factor in the 777-9, or -8 at this stage is a little bit of a problem, so we had to have a conversation with them.”

Source https://youtu.be/YjCLMzqQ2mU
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tullamarine
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:43 am

As well as EK's concerns, it seems very likely that EY will soon move to cancel its order for 25 779s. It has announced it is retiring its 77Ws immediately and have no plans for reactivating its A380s so it is hard to see the market segment it will need 779s for.
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:13 am

Looking beyond Sir Tim's comments, the B777X program appears to be on shaky ground.

Etihad has slashed their order down to just 6 B779's. A recent fleet rationalization decision to cut their fleet to just B787's and A350-1000's indicates that they might cancel their B777X order outright.

ANA has 20 B777X's on order, but deferred deliveries last year to 2023. They still seem to be on-board with the program, but they are also rapidly retiring B77W's before the B777X's arrive. Will they still need to replace this lift?

Last year, Cathay Pacific deferred first delivery of their order (totaling 21) to 2025. The pandemic and political issues in Hong Kong have had a severe negative impact on CX. This may cause them to take a hard look at rationalizing their wide body fleet. Considering that they have a sizable A350-1000 fleet on property, will they still need the B777X?

Lufthansa's order for 20 has the first deliveries postponed to 2023. Their B777X order seems OK - for now...

Only Qatar's order for 50 B779's seems fairly solid. However, due to Boeing's delays, won't start getting their first ones until 2023. Will Al-Baker have one of his fits and decide to give Boeing a hard time?
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:53 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
Looking beyond Sir Tim's comments, the B777X program appears to be on shaky ground.

Etihad has slashed their order down to just 6 B779's. A recent fleet rationalization decision to cut their fleet to just B787's and A350-1000's indicates that they might cancel their B777X order outright.

ANA has 20 B777X's on order, but deferred deliveries last year to 2023. They still seem to be on-board with the program, but they are also rapidly retiring B77W's before the B777X's arrive. Will they still need to replace this lift?

Last year, Cathay Pacific deferred first delivery of their order (totaling 21) to 2025. The pandemic and political issues in Hong Kong have had a severe negative impact on CX. This may cause them to take a hard look at rationalizing their wide body fleet. Considering that they have a sizable A350-1000 fleet on property, will they still need the B777X?

Lufthansa's order for 20 has the first deliveries postponed to 2023. Their B777X order seems OK - for now...

Only Qatar's order for 50 B779's seems fairly solid. However, due to Boeing's delays, won't start getting their first ones until 2023. Will Al-Baker have one of his fits and decide to give Boeing a hard time?


I would add that BA’s order should be solid. No indication or speculation that anything worse than an expected deferral is on the cards.
 
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par13del
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:57 am

So the changes that the FAA and EASA want on the 777X as a result of the MAX debacle is what, does anyone really know?
We have not heard much of anything about the pressure test failure and the remedial actions, most say it is minor and can be corrected without major design changes and analysis, if so, that is obviously not the reason for first delivery to be pushed out another two years after first flight.
If no major redesign of the cockpit for the speculated new human / machine interface, is this just a 2 or 3 year software delay?
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:05 am

The flip side is that airlines are cash strapped and many of their widebodies lives have been extended from a year of sitting on the ground. It is also not clear when international demand will fully return either so the key thing here is how long of a delay and at what cost to performance.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:09 am

MrHMSH wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Looking beyond Sir Tim's comments, the B777X program appears to be on shaky ground.

Etihad has slashed their order down to just 6 B779's. A recent fleet rationalization decision to cut their fleet to just B787's and A350-1000's indicates that they might cancel their B777X order outright.

ANA has 20 B777X's on order, but deferred deliveries last year to 2023. They still seem to be on-board with the program, but they are also rapidly retiring B77W's before the B777X's arrive. Will they still need to replace this lift?

Last year, Cathay Pacific deferred first delivery of their order (totaling 21) to 2025. The pandemic and political issues in Hong Kong have had a severe negative impact on CX. This may cause them to take a hard look at rationalizing their wide body fleet. Considering that they have a sizable A350-1000 fleet on property, will they still need the B777X?

Lufthansa's order for 20 has the first deliveries postponed to 2023. Their B777X order seems OK - for now...

Only Qatar's order for 50 B779's seems fairly solid. However, due to Boeing's delays, won't start getting their first ones until 2023. Will Al-Baker have one of his fits and decide to give Boeing a hard time?


I would add that BA’s order should be solid. No indication or speculation that anything worse than an expected deferral is on the cards.


Good catch!

British Airways has a firm order for 18 B779's, with the first 8 due in 2024. They also have options for 24 more. However, there seems to be a capacity overlap between the B779 and their A350-1000 fleet, which they already have 8 in service and 10 more on order.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:08 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Looking beyond Sir Tim's comments, the B777X program appears to be on shaky ground.

Etihad has slashed their order down to just 6 B779's. A recent fleet rationalization decision to cut their fleet to just B787's and A350-1000's indicates that they might cancel their B777X order outright.

ANA has 20 B777X's on order, but deferred deliveries last year to 2023. They still seem to be on-board with the program, but they are also rapidly retiring B77W's before the B777X's arrive. Will they still need to replace this lift?

Last year, Cathay Pacific deferred first delivery of their order (totaling 21) to 2025. The pandemic and political issues in Hong Kong have had a severe negative impact on CX. This may cause them to take a hard look at rationalizing their wide body fleet. Considering that they have a sizable A350-1000 fleet on property, will they still need the B777X?

Lufthansa's order for 20 has the first deliveries postponed to 2023. Their B777X order seems OK - for now...

Only Qatar's order for 50 B779's seems fairly solid. However, due to Boeing's delays, won't start getting their first ones until 2023. Will Al-Baker have one of his fits and decide to give Boeing a hard time?


I would add that BA’s order should be solid. No indication or speculation that anything worse than an expected deferral is on the cards.


Good catch!

British Airways has a firm order for 18 B779's, with the first 8 due in 2024. They also have options for 24 more. However, there seems to be a capacity overlap between the B779 and their A350-1000 fleet, which they already have 8 in service and 10 more on order.


BA don’t have a F cabin on the A350-1000 at least those delivered so far, 331 seats total, I think the 779 has been announced as 4 class 325 seats.

SQ recently converted some 787s for another 11 779s giving them 31 on order total.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Emirates wants talks on 777x

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:08 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
BA don’t have a F cabin on the A350-1000 at least those delivered so far, 331 seats total, I think the 779 has been announced as 4 class 325 seats.

SQ recently converted some 787s for another 11 779s giving them 31 on order total.


You are right. Currently the BA A350-1000 does not have a "F Class" section, with the plans for the B779 to be the premium-heavy member of BA's fleet. I hope these plans stay valid as the recovery advances.

Singapore did recently convert some near-term B787-10's order to future B779 orders, but the deliveries of those B779's don't begin until 2026. Meanwhile, the original 20 B779's on order for SQ don't start deliveries until 2024. Hopefully market conditions 3 to 5 years from now are favorable and these deliveries will happen on schedule.

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