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morrisond
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Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:00 pm

Building out the fleet it seems https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/22/delta-o ... ners-.html

Not many details yet.
 
Ishrion
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:00 pm

Delta PR: https://news.delta.com/delta-expands-ai ... 1neo-fleet

Airbus PR: https://www.airbus.com/us/en/newsroom/p ... 1neos.html

Accelerating delivery of 2x A350-900 and 1x A330-900neo for second half of 2022
 
N292UX
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:02 pm

Pretty surprised they didn't bite at the XLR. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these orders are eventually converted to the A321XLR...
 
Breathe
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:09 pm

N292UX wrote:
Pretty surprised they didn't bite at the XLR. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these orders are eventually converted to the A321XLR...

I was going to post the same thing. I'd be surprised if there wasn't an option to convert to the LR or XLR variants for destinations like EDI and DUB.
 
DL220MSP
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:23 pm

Fantastic news for a great aircraft.
 
tomcat
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:47 pm

From the Delta press release:
Delta and Airbus have agreed to add incremental aircraft to Delta’s order book of cutting-edge, safe, reliable and lower-emissions aircraft by converting purchase rights for 25 A321neo aircraft into firm orders, and replenishing Delta’s purchase rights.


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?
 
FlyGuyNash
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:54 pm

I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.
 
vulindlela744
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:55 pm

I think the A321 NEO is simply a better aircraft. More flexibilty and more range and comfort
 
Opus99
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:57 pm

tomcat wrote:
From the Delta press release:
Delta and Airbus have agreed to add incremental aircraft to Delta’s order book of cutting-edge, safe, reliable and lower-emissions aircraft by converting purchase rights for 25 A321neo aircraft into firm orders, and replenishing Delta’s purchase rights.


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?

Well, whatever delta does. BA cannot and will not wait for their business unless they will die waiting. Other business to extract elsewhere and I think they’ve come to terms with that

Congratulations to delta and airbus
 
SteelChair
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:10 pm

Opus99 wrote:
tomcat wrote:
From the Delta press release:
Delta and Airbus have agreed to add incremental aircraft to Delta’s order book of cutting-edge, safe, reliable and lower-emissions aircraft by converting purchase rights for 25 A321neo aircraft into firm orders, and replenishing Delta’s purchase rights.


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?

Well, whatever delta does. BA cannot and will not wait for their business unless they will die waiting. Other business to extract elsewhere and I think they’ve come to terms with that

Congratulations to delta and airbus



Wait? As if Boeing can't pursue other customers simultaneously, like they like they do all the time?
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:13 pm

Unclear when these will be delivered. Will be interesting if DL has basically undone some of the A321neo deferrals by adding new orders.

I know some others expected fleet news, possibly for 767s. Interested if this has any impact.
 
Opus99
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:16 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
tomcat wrote:
From the Delta press release:


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?

Well, whatever delta does. BA cannot and will not wait for their business unless they will die waiting. Other business to extract elsewhere and I think they’ve come to terms with that

Congratulations to delta and airbus



Wait? As if Boeing can't pursue other customers simultaneously, like they like they do all the time?

They can but I think we know BA is not going to get that much Delta business soon. I’m just saying their business will not come anytime soon, so they can pursues but they have more lucrative customers that are more worth chasing for business than delta right now.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:16 pm

tomcat wrote:
From the Delta press release:
Delta and Airbus have agreed to add incremental aircraft to Delta’s order book of cutting-edge, safe, reliable and lower-emissions aircraft by converting purchase rights for 25 A321neo aircraft into firm orders, and replenishing Delta’s purchase rights.


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?


Well, they use almost identical language in 2017 - "will feature cutting-edge safety, efficiency and comfort." (https://news.delta.com/delta-selects-ai ... et-renewal). I think you are reading too much into that.
Last edited by jbs2886 on Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:16 pm

FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:33 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.


Accelerate retirement? No, obviously not. But DL has over 100 A319/A320 and over 70 738 (if Wiki is in the ballpark) - and some of those birds just don’t have that much life left. Unless DL is going to shrink significantly in the 2025-27 timeframe, another major narrowbody order is inevitable, and there is no reason to believe that they won’t consider the MAX. It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:35 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.


With that logic there would be a huge gap between the A223, (130 seats) and the -900ER(180 seats). Another order for A320neo or MAX 8 is inevitable IMO.
 
joeblow10
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:39 pm

The 321 just seems to have worked out much better for DL than the 739s - which many find cramped and uncomfortable, and still have 11 less seats than the 321s. I’m not saying an order for the MAX is impossible - but they seem to have made it clear the 321 will be the domestic workhorse in the next 10-15 years.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:40 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.


Accelerate retirement? No, obviously not. But DL has over 100 A319/A320 and over 70 738 (if Wiki is in the ballpark) - and some of those birds just don’t have that much life left. Unless DL is going to shrink significantly in the 2025-27 timeframe, another major narrowbody order is inevitable, and there is no reason to believe that they won’t consider the MAX. It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.


I get thinking DL has enough on order with everything going on. But look at the A321neo order, it ended up being a 5 year lead time (granted, I don't think a MAX order, if one, would be that far away). One thing people miss when thinking about these airlines is that the sheer size of the airline means even a small amount of growth is a decent order. Indeed, this 25 aircraft A321neo is about 3% of its current mainline fleet and 3% probably isn't a far off number from just normal growth for ONE year (also recall, with DL's retirements, when demand returns that will be growth). Yes, that's an incredibly high-level view and doesn't consider aircraft size, utilization, etc., but it emphasizes the general point that I think we can expect orders although DL will do so in a financially prudent manner.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 10:58 pm

The reality is that this conversion of options to firm order was probably negotiated upon in principle at some point in 2020 as a broader part of the revised delivery schedule and deferment of aircraft out. There were likely some timeframes to commit to in terms of pricing and production slots.
Similar to the tie in of pulling up the 339 and 359 into 2022.

We have been having a lot of discussion about all of this over in the Delta Fleet thread.

In summer 2021 dL is going to be ~70 narrowbodies smaller than 2019 plus whatever is still in storage, that gap is still there in 2022-2023 and these options start to help close the gap with the fleet retirements that were pulled ahead.

Realistically they are going to continue to grow the NEO fleet. The window for Max deliveries is realistically in the next big RFP that would start to replace capacity of the 738, newest tranche of A320, some portion of capacity from the 757 fleet in the 2027-2030 timeframe
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:07 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.

It wasn't all that long ago that two of the three biggest (AA, DL) were all-Boeing, so why would it be so surprising to see another one of them swing the other way?
(Not to say that that's what DL is doing, but for the sake of argument)
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:15 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.


With that logic there would be a huge gap between the A223, (130 seats) and the -900ER(180 seats). Another order for A320neo or MAX 8 is inevitable IMO.


With what logic? DL's 738 were delivered between 1998-2002, with most coming online in 1999 and 2000. The 319 and NW's second batch of 320 were delivered from 1998-2003 (mostly in 2000/2001). There's also a large number of late build 757 from the same time period. Collectively, these airplanes will average another decade of service. I get it that a.net is desperate for a Boeing order, but these planes simply won't be up for renewal for several years. Pre-COVID, DL may have been able to accelerate their retirement, but that's not realistic at this point.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:31 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:

Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.


With that logic there would be a huge gap between the A223, (130 seats) and the -900ER(180 seats). Another order for A320neo or MAX 8 is inevitable IMO.


With what logic? DL's 738 were delivered between 1998-2002, with most coming online in 1999 and 2000. The 319 and NW's second batch of 320 were delivered from 1998-2003 (mostly in 2000/2001). There's also a large number of late build 757 from the same time period. Collectively, these airplanes will average another decade of service. I get it that a.net is desperate for a Boeing order, but these planes simply won't be up for renewal for several years. Pre-COVID, DL may have been able to accelerate their retirement, but that's not realistic at this point.


The whole purpose of this thread undermines your argument that DL cannot acquire new aircraft. Financing is cheap and plentiful. Indeed, DL is paying off the more expensive pension debt with cheaper debt. I'm not saying DL will accelerate retirement (or not), but it is not inconceivable that another sizeable order occurs and that such order is with Boeing.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:39 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.


With that logic there would be a huge gap between the A223, (130 seats) and the -900ER(180 seats). Another order for A320neo or MAX 8 is inevitable IMO.


I am glad I’m not the only one thinking that. The 150-175 seat market is barren in orders. The Airbus A320 fleet is about 25 and the Boeing 737-800 fleet is around 20.

But the Boeing 757 (Delta One) fleet needs replacement soon as well.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:44 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
The whole purpose of this thread undermines your argument that DL cannot acquire new aircraft. Financing is cheap and plentiful. Indeed, DL is paying off the more expensive pension debt with cheaper debt. I'm not saying DL will accelerate retirement (or not), but it is not inconceivable that another sizeable order occurs and that such order is with Boeing.


When did I say that DL cannot acquire new aircraft? I said that, despite numerous baseless rumors on a.net that a MAX order was imminent, this order makes it unlikely. If DL were to order the MAX, it'd be a fairly larger order -- at least 50, and probably closer to 100, due to the added costs of adding a new type to its fleet. But this order solidifies DL's needs for the next 5+ year; any additional orders over that time frame would come in small increments, not a large block.

Today's financing rates are irrelevant -- unless DL planned to prepay its deliveries 5+ years out, it's not going to be able to take advantage of today's rates several years from now. And Boeing is looking to cut deals on moving aircraft now, now 10+ years from now.

DL has nearly 200 narrowbody aircraft scheduled for delivery over the next 5+ years. At this point, it's just not realistic to think that the 319, 738, 0second wave of 320 deliveries and late model 757 deliveries will not collectively average another 10 years of service.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:21 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.



You vastly underestimate Delta's ability to borrow, should it want to. It is still borrowing pretty cheaply commercially. It didn't take non-payroll Cares Act loans. It didn't issue new equity. It is prefunding pension contributions unlike AAnother carrier.

Get out of the echo chambers and read the financial statements.
 
airplaneboy
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:55 am

Does anyone think the A320 NEO has potential in the DL fleet versus the 737 MAX? Especially if they’re equipped with the same engines as the 321 NEO?
 
freakyrat
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:08 am

vulindlela744 wrote:
I think the A321 NEO is simply a better aircraft. More flexibilty and more range and comfort


The 737 is ancient technology. Airbus is a FBW aircraft with a simplified and more logically laid out flight deck. For the passenger the Airbus is wider and more comfortable inside.

Even the Bombardier C-Series/Airbus A220 is more technologically advanced and a more comfortable aircraft
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:41 am

Congratulation to Airbus and Delta! I do still think Delta will place an order for Boeing NMA. It will be too risky to depend on single OEM.
 
Josh76040
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:50 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.



You vastly underestimate Delta's ability to borrow, should it want to. It is still borrowing pretty cheaply commercially. It didn't take non-payroll Cares Act loans. It didn't issue new equity. It is prefunding pension contributions unlike AAnother carrier.

Get out of the echo chambers and read the financial statements.


Back in 2011, AA borrowed a great deal to finance a huge Airbus order about 6 months prior to filing BK. Delta’s order does not mean they are healthy, and neither does their ability to borrow.

Delta BK 2021? Hmmm...
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:59 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.



You vastly underestimate Delta's ability to borrow, should it want to. It is still borrowing pretty cheaply commercially. It didn't take non-payroll Cares Act loans. It didn't issue new equity. It is prefunding pension contributions unlike AAnother carrier.

Get out of the echo chambers and read the financial statements.


No, I don't. With 230+ aircraft scheduled for delivery within roughly five years, including 50 widebodies, I question the likelihood of DL ordering additional aircraft in the near-term. The 319, 738, second batch of 320 and late model 757 average about 20yo; a MAX order in the near-term would reduce their probable lifespan from around the 30 year to the 25 year mark. If we weren't hit by a pandemic, this was unlikely. But with the massive debt load undertaken -- even with cheap borrowing rates available -- it becomes even more unlikely. DL and its peers are acknowledging that they have no idea when there will be a significant recovery in business travel, and that they expect cheap fares to be around for awhile.

A.net can keep dreaming of a MAX order, but if one happens, it won't be for awhile.

Josh76040 wrote:
Back in 2011, AA borrowed a great deal to finance a huge Airbus order about 6 months prior to filing BK. Delta’s order does not mean they are healthy, and neither does their ability to borrow.

Delta BK 2021? Hmmm...


Take his advice and read the financial statements.
 
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NearMiss
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:21 am

So, I assume this will be to replace some of the oldest 757s right?
"There is an art, it says, or rather, a knack to flying. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss."
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:40 am

Based on today's announcement, and going off the Q1 10-Q with the orders / delivery plan here is what appears to be the changes

Q1 2021 based on 10-K
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 62 100
A330-900neo 3 8 8 10 29
A350-900 — 2 — 18 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 39 39 112 224

Updated based on today's announcement (4/22/21)
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 87125
A330-900neo 3 9 7 10 29
A350-900 — 4 — 16 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 42 38 110 249

Some key-takeaways
- 2021 deliveries will include 3 A221, 5 A223, 22 A321, 3 A339, 1 CR9
- Remainder of A321CEOs to be delivered in 2021
- A321NEO deliveries will not start until 2022
- Big defferal on A220s pushed to out years, only taking 8 A221/3's in 2021
- One incremental A339 added, to be leased in 2021
- New deliveries in 2021, 2022, 2023 effectively half of pre-COVID planned deliveries
*** Update 4/22/21
- 2 A359 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 2 were moved up from the "after 2023" bucket to now mean 4 A359s to be delivered in 2022
- 8 A339 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 1 was moved up from 2023 to 2022, for a total of 9 A339s to be delivered in 2022
- 25 A321NEO options were added to the previous 100 firm orders for a total of 125. No timing was said in the press release so I assume this means "after 2023"
 
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:07 am

*Updated based on todays announcement and data from end of Q1 2021*

Comparing some YOY data, from 10-K, I've prepared some analysis on Pre-COVID vs Post-COVID fleet plans:
Note "italics" indicate an estimated number, based on retirements. I made estimates on the MD90 (pre-COVID, B712, B763 retirement schedule in future years.
This is based on baseline from the 2019 Year-End 10K, and revised based on fleet size and revised delivery schedule in the 2020 Year-end 10K
Some of my capacity/seat counts may be slightly off, going off memory and/or there was variation by sub-types, but was trying to create general groupings of aircraft types.


Small Narrowbody:

PRE-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
A221 109 4 28 45 45 45
A223 130 0 0 6 18 36
B712 110 91 91 91 91 91
B73G 130 10 10 10 10 10
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 209 221 239

POST-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
A221 109 4 28 38 41 45
A223 130 0 0 5 10 17
B712 110 91 91 50 50 50
B73G 130 10 10 0 0 0
A319 132 57 57 57 57 57
SMALL NB 162 186 150 158 169

The number of small narrowbodies, (110-130 seat) is going to decrease and be about 80-90 frames less than pre-COVID through 2022.
Primarily from accelerated retirement of 717s, the retirement of the 73G fleet, and pushing out A220 deliveries.
The buffer is going to be how many degrees of freedom there is to either accelerate or extend the B717 retirement, currently planned by December 2025.
Considering they are an orphan fleet type, I'm sure lessors would be more than willing to extend leases if necessary in the out years if additional capacity is needed in this fleet size.

Medium Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 62 62 62
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 30 30 0
MED NB 266 216 169 169 139

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
MD88 149 84 47 0 0 0
A320 157 62 62 55 55 52
B738 160 77 77 77 77 77
MD90 160 43 30 0 0 0
MED NB 266 216 132 132 129

For medium-sized narrowbodies, in the 150-160 seat range, the MD88s were already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2020, and the MD90s were gone by the end of 2022 if not sooner. No deliveries in this capacity segment for the forseeable future. Since the A320s, other than the 10 that were retired in 2020 that were due up for heavy maintenance, the rest will likely stay for the next few years, at least through 2022.

Large Narrowbody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 127 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 1 42 82
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 374 415 455

Post-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B739 180 112 130 130 130 130
A321 189 65 96 105 127 127
A21N 190 0 0 0 0 18
B752 192 100 100 100 100 100
B753 224 16 16 16 16 16
LARGE NB 293 342 351 373 391

Large narrowbodies didn't see any early retirements but have had deliveries delayed with the A321CEO & NEO. Going to be about 50-60 frames less than anticipated preCovid growth at the end of 2020 that pre-pandemic plans.

Widebody:
Pre-COVID
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
B763 226 58 56 56 56 56
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 11 22 30
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 17 19 19
B77E/L 290 18 18 18 18 18
WB FLEET 150 154 165 178 186

Post-COVID:
TYPE Capacity YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
B763 226 58 56 36 36 36
B764 246 21 21 21 21 21
A332 234 11 11 11 11 11
A339 281 0 4 8 11 20
A333 293 31 31 31 31 31
A359 306 11 13 15 15 19
B77E/L 290 18 18 0 0 0
WB FLEET 150 154 122 125 138

Pre-Covid, DL was at 150-154 widebodies with plans to grow the fleet to approaching 180 frames by end of 2022.
Now the fleet is currently at 120 frames and going to be relatively flat in size through 2022 as A339 & A359 deliveries will be offset by B763 retirements.
B763 retirements will act as the buffer with full retirement of the remaining 34 frames planned by December 2025.

TOTAL:

Pre-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE2022
TOTAL 871 898 917 983 1019

Post-COVID
YE2018 YE2019 YE2020 YE2021 YE 2022
TOTAL 871 898 755 788 827
 
MavyWavyATR
Posts: 241
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:52 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:18 am

I would've thought for sure that DL pulled the trigger for the XLR here. There's always the potential for conversions down the road.
 
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MrBren
Posts: 351
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:44 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:44 am

Fantastic news.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 327
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:16 am

airplaneboy wrote:
Does anyone think the A320 NEO has potential in the DL fleet versus the 737 MAX? Especially if they’re equipped with the same engines as the 321 NEO?

I would guess that they are waiting for the A225 in the 180 seat segment. No added cost of an different type and probably the most efficient in that class when it comes out...
 
DL220MSP
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:10 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:32 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Congratulation to Airbus and Delta! I do still think Delta will place an order for Boeing NMA. It will be too risky to depend on single OEM.


Interesting that you do not say the same about United...
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 938
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:23 am

If Airbus launches the A225 in the next 2 years I can see them replacing everything below 737-900ER in size. If not it is an open race between A320neo and 737-8. It is clear though that the large narrow body fleet will be A321 and the small narrow body fleet will be A221/3. Just the middle is undecided.

Airbus has the opportunity to get both the middle narrow body size with the A320neo and A225 as well as the A321+ size with a A322 and the XLR but both fleet "holes" are still up for grab.

Chances with crew and cockpit simplification are that we will see 5 fleets in total at mainline Delta: A221/3/possibly5, 737-900ER, A320/321/possibly322 A330, A350.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 10171
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:32 am

It seems like a big 737-8MAX and 797 (NMA) order is imminent. DL has avoided filling this segments with Airbuses and it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.
 
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scbriml
Posts: 19696
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:11 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
Congratulation to Airbus and Delta! I do still think Delta will place an order for Boeing NMA. It will be too risky to depend on single OEM.


Yet plenty of folks here say Southwest is brilliant for doing exactly that! :spin:
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13754
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:08 am

seahawk wrote:
it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.

Really? ...give us some examples of what that risk could plausibly be.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
DL220MSP
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:10 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:10 am

seahawk wrote:
It seems like a big 737-8MAX and 797 (NMA) order is imminent. DL has avoided filling this segments with Airbuses and it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.


How would it be VERY RISKY to depend on Airbus only? SW and United depend on Boeing only? Is that VERY RISKY, too?
 
micstatic
Posts: 824
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2001 10:07 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:10 am

seahawk wrote:
It seems like a big 737-8MAX and 797 (NMA) order is imminent. DL has avoided filling this segments with Airbuses and it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.


This makes no sense. Like said above. Plenty of airlines have fleets consisting of only boeing or airbus.
 
2eng2efficient
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:30 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:38 am

LAX772LR wrote:
2eng2efficient wrote:
It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.

It wasn't all that long ago that two of the three biggest (AA, DL) were all-Boeing, so why would it be so surprising to see another one of them swing the other way?
(Not to say that that's what DL is doing, but for the sake of argument)


The general consensus on A.net was that the all-Boeing fleets were the product of outdated gentlemen’s agreements, and that fleet diversification would result in favorable negotiating positions with the manufacturers. This is purely logical from an “MBA orthodoxy” perspective; i.e. Porter’s bargaining power of suppliers. From a risk management perspective too; Boeing’s recent MAX issues resulted in a material loss of revenue for carriers like WN. Sure Boeing indemnified them, but what if they were unable to? These are the types of remote-but-serious risks that fleet diversity can partly mitigate.

I’m not saying that Boeing has a future order in the bag; only that the existing A321 order book doesn’t cover A319/20 and 738 replacement, and that a competitive RFP mid-decade for late decade delivery is inevitable.
 
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JannEejit
Posts: 1736
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:04 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:45 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:

But the Boeing 757 (Delta One) fleet needs replacement soon as well.


How much service life do we think the 757 has within Delta ?
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 938
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:47 am

2eng2efficient wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
2eng2efficient wrote:
It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.

It wasn't all that long ago that two of the three biggest (AA, DL) were all-Boeing, so why would it be so surprising to see another one of them swing the other way?
(Not to say that that's what DL is doing, but for the sake of argument)


The general consensus on A.net was that the all-Boeing fleets were the product of outdated gentlemen’s agreements, and that fleet diversification would result in favorable negotiating positions with the manufacturers. This is purely logical from an “MBA orthodoxy” perspective; i.e. Porter’s bargaining power of suppliers. From a risk management perspective too; Boeing’s recent MAX issues resulted in a material loss of revenue for carriers like WN. Sure Boeing indemnified them, but what if they were unable to? These are the types of remote-but-serious risks that fleet diversity can partly mitigate.

I’m not saying that Boeing has a future order in the bag; only that the existing A321 order book doesn’t cover A319/20 and 738 replacement, and that a competitive RFP mid-decade for late decade delivery is inevitable.


The thing is going all Boeing or all Airbus is not that much of a problem if you still have a diversified fleet. If one offers you better terms go with it even if it leads to having only one OEM as a supplier for a period of time.

Still SW nor FR were totally out of operation because they do not only operate MAX so the risk was already somewhat spread. Same for other Airlines. Delta would even with an all Airbus fleet have 2 NB families and the A320 family is split in many subcategories. Chances that all aircraft affected are very slim.

Chances that Delta will be all Airbus are very slim because the 737-900ERs are "very new" so they will stay for a while, but besides that there is a chance that Delta will not order a Boeing product this decade. The MAX-8 has a chance if Boeing offers the best terms when Delta needs more NB aircraft but it is an open race. Airbus can tilt the favour a bit because if they make an A225 they have the better option to fit between the A223 and the 737-900ER as it would sit right in between capacity wise.

In the WB departement Boeing is probably out for a while, there is no need for DL to add another WB type next to the two Airbus models.
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 13754
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:48 am

DL220MSP wrote:
SW and United depend on Boeing only?

Technical corrections: SW no longer exists (if you meant Southwest, their code is WN) and UA hasn't been an all-Boeing airline at any point in the last half-century.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
micstatic
Posts: 824
Joined: Fri Jul 20, 2001 10:07 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:52 am

Even if we look at a possible A220-500. When would it be ready? I mean even if the program was announced today, design and certification would carry a heavy lead time. Ever since the MAX debacle, scrutiny on regulatory signoffs are much higher now.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8683
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:54 am

The 757 fleet is at 100 frames, and the majority of the fleet is likely to stay in service until at least 2026/2027+ They have actively been putting them through heavy maintenance and still are currently.
Some the oldest 75Ds could go earlier but the core of the fleet will still be around another 5-6 years. If not longer for the the early 2000s frames

The 130 739s are new, all delivered in 2013-2019. They have decades left in them.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 938
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:04 am

micstatic wrote:
Even if we look at a possible A220-500. When would it be ready? I mean even if the program was announced today, design and certification would carry a heavy lead time. Ever since the MAX debacle, scrutiny on regulatory signoffs are much higher now.


Thats not so much a problem, I do not think Delta needs a replacement for the A320/737-800 before 2027 and until then they can just add A321 and A223s.

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