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aemoreira1981
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:32 pm

JannEejit wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:

But the Boeing 757 (Delta One) fleet needs replacement soon as well.


How much service life do we think the 757 has within Delta ?


I think about 5-8 years. Some will be even shorter. (I am referring to the fleet with Delta One.)
 
PHLspecial
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:43 pm

seahawk wrote:
It seems like a big 737-8MAX and 797 (NMA) order is imminent. DL has avoided filling this segments with Airbuses and it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.

Is Southwest taking a risk for running the 737 only or genius? Or are you saying Airbus only is a risk, i.e. NK, F9
 
Capricorn
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:51 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
FlyGuyNash wrote:
I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.


Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.


With that logic there would be a huge gap between the A223, (130 seats) and the -900ER(180 seats). Another order for A320neo or MAX 8 is inevitable IMO.


I have the feeling that if (big if) Airbus were to launch a A220-500 DL besides AF will be among the customers. Same goes for the NMA.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:52 pm

PHLspecial wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It seems like a big 737-8MAX and 797 (NMA) order is imminent. DL has avoided filling this segments with Airbuses and it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.

Is Southwest taking a risk for running the 737 only or genius? Or are you saying Airbus only is a risk, i.e. NK, F9


You can not compare WN and DL. Delta TechOps is the largest MRO provider in North America and working for over 150 third party customers. They will always have the capabilities to service all common airliners, So it is in Delta´s interest to have a healthy relationship with both big OEMs. And due to their big MRO service, they would have very few of the advantages of a single type or manufacturer fleet but all the drawbacks.
 
ehaase
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:55 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
micstatic wrote:
Even if we look at a possible A220-500. When would it be ready? I mean even if the program was announced today, design and certification would carry a heavy lead time. Ever since the MAX debacle, scrutiny on regulatory signoffs are much higher now.


Thats not so much a problem, I do not think Delta needs a replacement for the A320/737-800 before 2027 and until then they can just add A321 and A223s.


Yes I can easily see Delta using the remaining 75 options for 321neo's and 50 options for 220-300's to replace the remaining A320's and the 738. Some think it is vital for Delta to have a 160 seat aircraft, but Delta also basically replaced MD88's and MD90's with larger 739's and 321ceo's.
 
LawAndOrder
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:03 pm

Just my two sense. Delta has not made up its mind on 320 and 738 replacements but I doubt it will be a straight 321 options into replace them. The 717 is in the same boat but A221/223 would most likely be the replacement.

I think it would be between the a225 (I picture it around the 320 size) and the 737max or whatever replaces it as the replacement for some 738 and 320 (of course with some upgauged to 321) I can see the 738s going at least another decade. Or shall I say to the end of this decade. Delta seems to be holding out for the NMA as it can cross multiple aircraft types 757/767 and upgrade some 321 current routes. Much like the 753 is the people mover now.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:03 pm

I do not think that this will speed up 757 retirements. Maybe they might keep flying their oldest frames up till the next D check and that'll be VCV for them. Then the late 90s/early 2000s/ last ones off the line frames will probably stay around till 2027/2028 like other users have been saying. I may be wrong, but this was their original plan for the 757s I think.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:36 pm

tomcat wrote:
From the Delta press release:
Delta and Airbus have agreed to add incremental aircraft to Delta’s order book of cutting-edge, safe, reliable and lower-emissions aircraft by converting purchase rights for 25 A321neo aircraft into firm orders, and replenishing Delta’s purchase rights.


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?


I think this is more down to DL using the word "safe" as one of the pillars of its recovery than anything else. This is just more of that same narrative building.
 
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HIA350
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:02 pm

vulindlela744 wrote:
I think the A321 NEO is simply a better aircraft. More flexibilty and more range and comfort


you're right, I have a few friends that work at DL in TPA as mechanic and loaders they prefer the a321 than the 737's as a customer i only flight jetblue, flown on 737 from united and delta and they are waqy by far less comfortable than the a321 hence i'm 6'1 220 lbs so not small person
 
Ufsatp
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:28 pm

DL220MSP wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It seems like a big 737-8MAX and 797 (NMA) order is imminent. DL has avoided filling this segments with Airbuses and it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.


How would it be VERY RISKY to depend on Airbus only? SW and United depend on Boeing only? Is that VERY RISKY, too?



Many on this site say it is. Go read the Southwest may order the A220 thread to see some of those statements.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:42 pm

LawAndOrder wrote:
Just my two sense. Delta has not made up its mind on 320 and 738 replacements but I doubt it will be a straight 321 options into replace them. The 717 is in the same boat but A221/223 would most likely be the replacement.

I think it would be between the a225 (I picture it around the 320 size) and the 737max or whatever replaces it as the replacement for some 738 and 320 (of course with some upgauged to 321) I can see the 738s going at least another decade. Or shall I say to the end of this decade. Delta seems to be holding out for the NMA as it can cross multiple aircraft types 757/767 and upgrade some 321 current routes. Much like the 753 is the people mover now.


Of course DL hasn't made a replacement decision for these (319, second batch of 320, 738, late model 757) aircraft -- they're just turning 20yo. DL's operating 30yo 320 and 757, and has 180+ narrowbody aircraft scheduled for delivery over the next 5+ years that will backfill the retired 717 and M90, add capacity and replace the first batch of 320 and aging 757. In 3-5 years, when DL is considering replacements for the aforementioned aircraft, of course DL will consider the NEO, MAX and NMA if it's available. But no, DL isn't going to take delivery of 500 aircraft over the next 5 years (especially given the uncertainly in long-term travel trends; WN is projecting a low-fare environment for several years, with business travel gradually returning - but not to 2019 levels). And no, DL isn't holding out for the NMA. Some of the Boeing fanboys need to accept reality.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:44 pm

I'm surprised DL isn't looking at picking some of LATAM's A359s and then convert some of their A359 orders to the A321NEO.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:03 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
I'm surprised DL isn't looking at picking some of LATAM's A359s and then convert some of their A359 orders to the A321NEO.


They were as part of their investment in LATAM, but then Covid hit and DL paid a multi-million dollar penalty in order to not take them.
 
LawAndOrder
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:06 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
LawAndOrder wrote:
Just my two sense. Delta has not made up its mind on 320 and 738 replacements but I doubt it will be a straight 321 options into replace them. The 717 is in the same boat but A221/223 would most likely be the replacement.

I think it would be between the a225 (I picture it around the 320 size) and the 737max or whatever replaces it as the replacement for some 738 and 320 (of course with some upgauged to 321) I can see the 738s going at least another decade. Or shall I say to the end of this decade. Delta seems to be holding out for the NMA as it can cross multiple aircraft types 757/767 and upgrade some 321 current routes. Much like the 753 is the people mover now.


Of course DL hasn't made a replacement decision for these (319, second batch of 320, 738, late model 757) aircraft -- they're just turning 20yo. DL's operating 30yo 320 and 757, and has 180+ narrowbody aircraft scheduled for delivery over the next 5+ years that will backfill the retired 717 and M90, add capacity and replace the first batch of 320 and aging 757. In 3-5 years, when DL is considering replacements for the aforementioned aircraft, of course DL will consider the NEO, MAX and NMA if it's available. But no, DL isn't going to take delivery of 500 aircraft over the next 5 years (especially given the uncertainly in long-term travel trends; WN is projecting a low-fare environment for several years, with business travel gradually returning - but not to 2019 levels). And no, DL isn't holding out for the NMA. Some of the Boeing fanboys need to accept reality.


You say they aren’t holding out for the NMA like you know that’s a fact. I can ensure you they are keeping their options open for the NMA ;-). I’m definitely not a fanboy I love the 321s and I know the neos will be even better.

All the other information is irrelevant. I didn’t mention they would look at all planes I was very specific in what I envisioned. All of that was speculation on my part. What isn’t is that they could have pulled the lever on a 757 replacement (in a low fare environment it is critical to have a 757 sized aircraft to compete with the low fares and the current orders don’t account for their retirement). The NMA discussion is definitely a reason they have not gone for the XLR. I also imagine they have also had talks of the potential or decision timing needed to get the xlr frames to cover 757 and I imagine they are waiting until the wire.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:11 pm

Like said, with these additional conversions to orders, DL has nearly 250 aircraft on order, which pretty much covers their 2021-2026 order book. That works out to an average of 40-50 new deliveries per year which is a pretty substantial number. Its not the record high-water mark from a few years ago when I believe they received almost 70 deliveries in a year but that pace wasn't really sustainable and really only because of the fact they were receiving so many end-of-the-line 739 & A321CEOs concurrently. With CapEx completing with debt servicing in the decade ahead, 40-50 new deliveries per year is about what can probably be sustained, particularly since there is a good chunk of more expensive WB 339 & 359s in the mix.
 
Tiredofhumanity
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:15 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
micstatic wrote:
Even if we look at a possible A220-500. When would it be ready? I mean even if the program was announced today, design and certification would carry a heavy lead time. Ever since the MAX debacle, scrutiny on regulatory signoffs are much higher now.


Thats not so much a problem, I do not think Delta needs a replacement for the A320/737-800 before 2027 and until then they can just add A321 and A223s.


Some of the A320's will be approaching 40 by then :shock:.

If they're going to retire all the 757's by 2027 as you imply, then I doubt they won't be in the process of retiring the A320's and oldest 738's by then also.

I have a feeling many of these NEO's are going after the existing A320's in addition to 752's - it seems to be consistent with DL's upgaging strategy.
 
seatown1
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:31 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Based on today's announcement, and going off the Q1 10-Q with the orders / delivery plan here is what appears to be the changes

Q1 2021 based on 10-K
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 62 100
A330-900neo 3 8 8 10 29
A350-900 — 2 — 18 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 39 39 112 224

Updated based on today's announcement (4/22/21)
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 87125
A330-900neo 3 9 7 10 29
A350-900 — 4 — 16 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 42 38 110 249

Some key-takeaways
- 2021 deliveries will include 3 A221, 5 A223, 22 A321, 3 A339, 1 CR9
- Remainder of A321CEOs to be delivered in 2021
- A321NEO deliveries will not start until 2022
- Big defferal on A220s pushed to out years, only taking 8 A221/3's in 2021
- One incremental A339 added, to be leased in 2021
- New deliveries in 2021, 2022, 2023 effectively half of pre-COVID planned deliveries
*** Update 4/22/21
- 2 A359 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 2 were moved up from the "after 2023" bucket to now mean 4 A359s to be delivered in 2022
- 8 A339 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 1 was moved up from 2023 to 2022, for a total of 9 A339s to be delivered in 2022
- 25 A321NEO options were added to the previous 100 firm orders for a total of 125. No timing was said in the press release so I assume this means "after 2023"


The new 25 additional NEOs will be coming in 2022 and 2023.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:43 pm

The A320 fleet was at 62 beginning of 2020

62
----
7 retired when parked during COVID that were next up for heavy maintenance, these were 28 year old aircraft
3 were retired, but have been "unretired" for the short term until they run out of green time when due for heavy maintenance (currently ~29 y/o)
---
52
24 of the remaining in-service A320s are from the first tranche of early 90s delivered are between 28-30 years old, have recently been put their likely their last and final heavy maintenance checks, and likely have another 2-4 years, 6 at the absolute max before retirement; I suspect most of these will be run-up about the 32-34 year mark, and I suspect they will probably start to be phased out at the earliest after peak summer 2022 but realistically in the 2023- 2025 timeframe.
--
28 are between 19-23 years from the 2nd tranche of NW A320s delivered in the late 90s/early 00s and same vintage as the A319s, 738s and newest 757s. These aircraft have another 7-10 years in them, and at least one more full heavy maintenance cycle at this point.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:38 pm

LawAndOrder wrote:
You say they aren’t holding out for the NMA like you know that’s a fact. I can ensure you they are keeping their options open for the NMA ;-). I’m definitely not a fanboy I love the 321s and I know the neos will be even better.

All the other information is irrelevant. I didn’t mention they would look at all planes I was very specific in what I envisioned. All of that was speculation on my part. What isn’t is that they could have pulled the lever on a 757 replacement (in a low fare environment it is critical to have a 757 sized aircraft to compete with the low fares and the current orders don’t account for their retirement). The NMA discussion is definitely a reason they have not gone for the XLR. I also imagine they have also had talks of the potential or decision timing needed to get the xlr frames to cover 757 and I imagine they are waiting until the wire.


It's wishful thinking, not a fact, and everything I wrote is relevant toward the purchase decision. No rational business (let alone one of the largest companies in the world) would hold out for a product that doesn't exist, may not exist, may not exist for many years and/or may never meet performance expectations.

About 15 years ago, DL made the decision that rather than ordering new aircraft, it would invest in its older aircraft and operate them for their useful economic life. DL has enjoyed enormous financial success from this strategy, to the point that UA will be copying that, instead of retiring its A320 / B737NG as we previously expected.

Put simply, the reason DL hasn't ordered replacements for its late 1990s/early 2000s-build aircraft is because they're not up for replacement yet. The B764 are the same age as these aircraft, and collectively, the ex-NW A332/A333 are just a few years older. I guess a.net's right, and a 787 replacement order is imminent, and DL will have 600+ aircraft on order for delivery over the next few years. :crazy:
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:44 pm

where did you get this information?

seatown1 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Based on today's announcement, and going off the Q1 10-Q with the orders / delivery plan here is what appears to be the changes

Q1 2021 based on 10-K
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 62 100
A330-900neo 3 8 8 10 29
A350-900 — 2 — 18 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 39 39 112 224

Updated based on today's announcement (4/22/21)
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 87125
A330-900neo 3 9 7 10 29
A350-900 — 4 — 16 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 42 38 110 249

Some key-takeaways
- 2021 deliveries will include 3 A221, 5 A223, 22 A321, 3 A339, 1 CR9
- Remainder of A321CEOs to be delivered in 2021
- A321NEO deliveries will not start until 2022
- Big defferal on A220s pushed to out years, only taking 8 A221/3's in 2021
- One incremental A339 added, to be leased in 2021
- New deliveries in 2021, 2022, 2023 effectively half of pre-COVID planned deliveries
*** Update 4/22/21
- 2 A359 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 2 were moved up from the "after 2023" bucket to now mean 4 A359s to be delivered in 2022
- 8 A339 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 1 was moved up from 2023 to 2022, for a total of 9 A339s to be delivered in 2022
- 25 A321NEO options were added to the previous 100 firm orders for a total of 125. No timing was said in the press release so I assume this means "after 2023"


The new 25 additional NEOs will be coming in 2022 and 2023.
 
seatown1
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:27 pm

TropicalSky wrote:
where did you get this information?


I've seen the internal memo sent to the pilots.
 
ytib
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:30 pm

seatown1 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Based on today's announcement, and going off the Q1 10-Q with the orders / delivery plan here is what appears to be the changes

Q1 2021 based on 10-K
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 62 100
A330-900neo 3 8 8 10 29
A350-900 — 2 — 18 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 39 39 112 224

Updated based on today's announcement (4/22/21)
Revised delivery schedule:
Aircraft Purchase Commitments 2021 2022 2023 After 2023 Total
A220-100 3 4 — — 7
A220-300 5 7 11 22 45
A321-200 22 — — — 22
A321-200neo — 18 20 87125
A330-900neo 3 9 7 10 29
A350-900 — 4 — 16 20
CRJ-900 1 — — — 1
Total 34 42 38 110 249

Some key-takeaways
- 2021 deliveries will include 3 A221, 5 A223, 22 A321, 3 A339, 1 CR9
- Remainder of A321CEOs to be delivered in 2021
- A321NEO deliveries will not start until 2022
- Big defferal on A220s pushed to out years, only taking 8 A221/3's in 2021
- One incremental A339 added, to be leased in 2021
- New deliveries in 2021, 2022, 2023 effectively half of pre-COVID planned deliveries
*** Update 4/22/21
- 2 A359 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 2 were moved up from the "after 2023" bucket to now mean 4 A359s to be delivered in 2022
- 8 A339 were already planned for delivery in 2022, I assume this means 1 was moved up from 2023 to 2022, for a total of 9 A339s to be delivered in 2022
- 25 A321NEO options were added to the previous 100 firm orders for a total of 125. No timing was said in the press release so I assume this means "after 2023"


The new 25 additional NEOs will be coming in 2022 and 2023.

TropicalSky wrote:
where did you get this information?


10K (Annual Report), fleet plan on page 26: https://ir.delta.com/financials/default.aspx
8K from 4/22/21 has the information on the 321 order: https://ir.delta.com/financials/default.aspx

The quarterly report does not include aircraft commitments just operating fleet as of 3/31/21.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:40 pm

Yes, I've been using the 10-k and 10-q to track the data.

The 8-K and press release had no information about the timing of the incremental 25 A321NEOs.
The first A321NEO were to be 2022.

Not questioning out necessarily doubting they increased the number of NEOs now for 2022 and 2023 as, the order book was completely restructured last year with COVID, its just we've never seen it communicated they were explicitly increasing the number of NEOs for 2022 versus what they most recently published in Feb which was for 18 in 2022.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:01 pm

I think Delta sees a future fleet of A220-100/300/500 and A321neos. No xlr, but hoping to hold out long enough for a twin aisle NMA for 6hr and up flights.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:38 pm

What's the cheapest and lightest the A321 neo can operate at? No aux tank, MTOW and engine derate? Maybe that is enough and a smaller frame between the A220 will not be purchased.
 
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AECM
Posts: 413
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:57 pm

DenverTed wrote:
What's the cheapest and lightest the A321 neo can operate at? No aux tank, MTOW and engine derate? Maybe that is enough and a smaller frame between the A220 will not be purchased.
The lowest MTOW for the A321NEO is at 80 ton
 
tomcat
Posts: 1099
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2000 4:14 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:20 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
tomcat wrote:
From the Delta press release:
Delta and Airbus have agreed to add incremental aircraft to Delta’s order book of cutting-edge, safe, reliable and lower-emissions aircraft by converting purchase rights for 25 A321neo aircraft into firm orders, and replenishing Delta’s purchase rights.


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?


Well, they use almost identical language in 2017 - "will feature cutting-edge safety, efficiency and comfort." (https://news.delta.com/delta-selects-ai ... et-renewal). I think you are reading too much into that.


Fair enough, thank you. I'm just finding this odd to elaborate on the safety of an aircraft in 2021. It's not like DL or Airbus have a bad safety reputation.
 
mcg
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Joined: Tue Sep 16, 2003 11:49 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:54 pm

Just a teeny-bit off topic, but do I understand correctly that DL retired about 300 MD80's and MD90's last year?
 
dstblj52
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 9:55 pm

mcg wrote:
Just a teeny-bit off topic, but do I understand correctly that DL retired about 300 MD80's and MD90's last year?

around 100 aircraft i believe not 300
 
MohawkWeekend
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Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:23 pm

Biden pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 - CNBC

If the US Govt is serious, DL will need to get more efficient alot quicker the current thinking on aircraft retirements. And the most efficient aircraft out there is the A-220. Expect tax incentives to replace aircraft sooner.
 
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Polot
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:34 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
And the most efficient aircraft out there is the A-220. Expect tax incentives to replace aircraft sooner.

Depends on how you define efficient. Per seat? No, planes like the A321neo and 737max10 are far more efficient than the A220.

Cutting greenhouse emissions also means fewer thinner point to point/ hub bypassing flights and more consolidating to fewer flights on larger planes...
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:51 pm

Josh76040 wrote:

Back in 2011, AA borrowed a great deal to finance a huge Airbus order about 6 months prior to filing BK. Delta’s order does not mean they are healthy, and neither does their ability to borrow.

Delta BK 2021? Hmmm...


Delta has $8.6B in cash right now, they won't be filing bankruptcy anytime soon.
 
NWADTWE16
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Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:27 am

Bravo Delta, this is the right move! The 737900 is a horribly uncomfortable bird, especially compared one to one with the Airbus A321. The A321 is higher off the ground, wider (more spacious overall for passenger comfort), more powerful, uses less runway, does not require a ground stick to keep it from tipping on its arse, on and on. I will dearly miss the 757, and the power behind its takeoffs, that said the A321 is very powerful and the best replacement for them. The A221/3/5, A320/21, A339, A350-9/10 (dreaming)...best product line right there.
 
777luver
Posts: 838
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:44 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:37 am

So are these a direct replacement for DLs 737, 757 fleet?
 
luckyone
Posts: 4796
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2008 1:50 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:37 am

HIA350 wrote:
vulindlela744 wrote:
I think the A321 NEO is simply a better aircraft. More flexibilty and more range and comfort


you're right, I have a few friends that work at DL in TPA as mechanic and loaders they prefer the a321 than the 737's as a customer i only flight jetblue, flown on 737 from united and delta and they are waqy by far less comfortable than the a321 hence i'm 6'1 220 lbs so not small person

While that indeed may be your perception, the seats on Delta's A321 are the same as their seats on 737s, at the same pitch (at least the 739, the 738 some seats actually have an extra inch of pitch. A wider aisle may make walking easier, but the seats are the same. I'm roughly the same size as you, and can tell no difference between the two aircraft. Personally, I avoid this problem entirely and any flight over two hours I book Economy Plus.

I'm not surprised the loaders would prefer the Airbus, though. the underfloor compartment is larger.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 2231
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:09 am

Polot wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
And the most efficient aircraft out there is the A-220. Expect tax incentives to replace aircraft sooner.

Depends on how you define efficient. Per seat? No, planes like the A321neo and 737max10 are far more efficient than the A220.

Cutting greenhouse emissions also means fewer thinner point to point/ hub bypassing flights and more consolidating to fewer flights on larger planes...



True. My point (perhaps not clearly made) is aircraft that aren't of the latest technology (757 and 717 as examples) may be retired alot sooner than we think.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 1005
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:09 am

luckyone wrote:
HIA350 wrote:
vulindlela744 wrote:
I think the A321 NEO is simply a better aircraft. More flexibilty and more range and comfort


you're right, I have a few friends that work at DL in TPA as mechanic and loaders they prefer the a321 than the 737's as a customer i only flight jetblue, flown on 737 from united and delta and they are waqy by far less comfortable than the a321 hence i'm 6'1 220 lbs so not small person

While that indeed may be your perception, the seats on Delta's A321 are the same as their seats on 737s, at the same pitch (at least the 739, the 738 some seats actually have an extra inch of pitch. A wider aisle may make walking easier, but the seats are the same. I'm roughly the same size as you, and can tell no difference between the two aircraft. Personally, I avoid this problem entirely and any flight over two hours I book Economy Plus.

I'm not surprised the loaders would prefer the Airbus, though. the underfloor compartment is larger.


That is incorrect. Per DL's website, the 737 have 17.3" width, whereas the 32X have 18" width. The roomier seats are noticeable to many.

NW opted for a wider aisle and installed the same seats on the 319 and 320 as the 757, but DL replaced the former NW seats as the aircraft were refurbished.
 
ifIHadWings
Posts: 15
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:19 am

As I recall, Delta made a deal with P&W to be an MRO for the P&W geared turbofan engines on the A220s and A320 NEOs, but couldn't get a similar deal with CFM for the engines used on the B-737Max. As such, it would seem Delta is highly likely to buy A320NEO aircraft instead of B-737Max for the remainder of this decade unless CFM changes their mind about engine maintenance contracts. It seems to me this shouldn't be so much a Boeing vs. Airbus discussion, as a CFM vs P&W discussion. Since P&W engines are only pared with the A220 and A320 families and not with the B-737Max, that seems to limit what Delta is likely to buy for now.

Also, in their Apr 22, 2021 press release, Delta said "Delta’s total purchase commitment for the A321neo will now be 125 firm aircraft, with 100 purchase rights." As such, with 100 existing options for the A321, they definitely have room to grow their A320 family order in the coming years if they want/need to add some incremental aircraft. Also, I don't see Delta wanting to add a new fleet type (i.e. B-737Max) unless they have a need for something like 75-100 new planes AND they can get CFM to make a deal. Sure, one group of pilots could be used with both the B-737Max and B-737NG, but there would still be extra incremental/difference training. Plus spare parts to buy, and the like. They'd be better off just converting some of their 100 options on A321s rather than adding a new sub-fleet.

Also, in their Apr 22, 2021 press release, Delta said (emphasis mine) "The new aircraft [A321neos] will be deployed primarily across Delta’s extensive domestic network." I don't think Delta is worried about planes with A321XLR type range at the moment. I think they are planning for planes with enough range to fly ATL-SEA, but that are also good (and cheap/light) enough to fly routes like ATL-MCO. Delta doesn't want to pay extra for heavier planes that have excess range compared to their needs.

Also, for those thinking Delta might care about only buying modern, fly-by-wire aircraft, keep in mind we are discussing the company that just last year retired their MD88 and MD90 fleets. And they still plan to operate MD95s (B-717s) until roughly 2025. Delta cares about high dispatch reliability, minimizing debt, maximizing their credit rating, cost of operation, being able to buy replacement parts, and the like. I really don't think they care if their fleet is "modern."

Realistically, I would GUESS this is what Delta is telling their suppliers:
Boeing: What are your plans for a 150-200 seat Yellowstone-1/NSA/737 replacement for delivery starting in about 2029-2031, give or take? We'll be in the market for some planes of that size then; either some NSAs or heavily discounted, last off the line, B-737Maxes.

Airbus: Got any plans to not only launch the A220-500 (at a price and with a seat count and range that is to our liking), while also funding and building a final assembly line for those planes in the USA so we can avoid import duties? If so, let's talk about some possible orders with deliveries starting in either the 2025 or 2030 time frame (assuming you also are going to do a nice efficiency upgrade on the A220 program by 2030).

Airbus and Boeing: Got any plans to launch and start delivery, in 2025 or so, of something with more seats and a longer range than an A321XLR but also with fewer seats, a shorter range, and a lower per-seat cost (for both in terms of initial acquisition cost and long term operational cost) than a B-787-8 or an A330-800? We're expecting to run out of B-767-300ERs around then and might want to keep flying routes of similar distance and with similar passenger demand. Or we might just give up on operating those routes and just hope our customers will agree to fly to partner hubs in Europe, Asia, and S. America on larger aircraft and accept an extra connection. Or maybe international flying won't have recovered by then and we will just shrink. So really, we're saying please try to impress us into buying new aircraft of this size and range or we're just going to shrink our fleet. (And maybe just upgauge some key hub to hub routes to A350-900/1000s.)

And given that the responses to all 3 of the above questions is likely be along the lines of "We have no such plans."
MROs and parts suppliers: We've got fleets of A319/320 CEOs, B-737NGs, and B-757s that we intend to keep flying until at least 2030 and maybe longer, so you can count on our business up to, and perhaps beyond, 2030, so please don't be closing up shop before then, because you'll have a loyal customer in Delta. Well, unless you increase your prices, because if you do that, we're going to just immediately exercise our option to buy 100 new A320s and cancel our contracts with you. But otherwise, it's nice doing business with you.
 
dstblj52
Posts: 804
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 8:38 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:31 am

ifIHadWings wrote:
As I recall, Delta made a deal with P&W to be an MRO for the P&W geared turbofan engines on the A220s and A320 NEOs, but couldn't get a similar deal with CFM for the engines used on the B-737Max. As such, it would seem Delta is highly likely to buy A320NEO aircraft instead of B-737Max for the remainder of this decade unless CFM changes their mind about engine maintenance contracts. It seems to me this shouldn't be so much a Boeing vs. Airbus discussion, as a CFM vs P&W discussion. Since P&W engines are only pared with the A220 and A320 families and not with the B-737Max, that seems to limit what Delta is likely to buy for now.

Also, in their Apr 22, 2021 press release, Delta said "Delta’s total purchase commitment for the A321neo will now be 125 firm aircraft, with 100 purchase rights." As such, with 100 existing options for the A321, they definitely have room to grow their A320 family order in the coming years if they want/need to add some incremental aircraft. Also, I don't see Delta wanting to add a new fleet type (i.e. B-737Max) unless they have a need for something like 75-100 new planes AND they can get CFM to make a deal. Sure, one group of pilots could be used with both the B-737Max and B-737NG, but there would still be extra incremental/difference training. Plus spare parts to buy, and the like. They'd be better off just converting some of their 100 options on A321s rather than adding a new sub-fleet.

Also, in their Apr 22, 2021 press release, Delta said (emphasis mine) "The new aircraft [A321neos] will be deployed primarily across Delta’s extensive domestic network." I don't think Delta is worried about planes with A321XLR type range at the moment. I think they are planning for planes with enough range to fly ATL-SEA, but that are also good (and cheap/light) enough to fly routes like ATL-MCO. Delta doesn't want to pay extra for heavier planes that have excess range compared to their needs.

Also, for those thinking Delta might care about only buying modern, fly-by-wire aircraft, keep in mind we are discussing the company that just last year retired their MD88 and MD90 fleets. And they still plan to operate MD95s (B-717s) until roughly 2025. Delta cares about high dispatch reliability, minimizing debt, maximizing their credit rating, cost of operation, being able to buy replacement parts, and the like. I really don't think they care if their fleet is "modern."

Realistically, I would GUESS this is what Delta is telling their suppliers:
Boeing: What are your plans for a 150-200 seat Yellowstone-1/NSA/737 replacement for delivery starting in about 2029-2031, give or take? We'll be in the market for some planes of that size then; either some NSAs or heavily discounted, last off the line, B-737Maxes.

Airbus: Got any plans to not only launch the A220-500 (at a price and with a seat count and range that is to our liking), while also funding and building a final assembly line for those planes in the USA so we can avoid import duties? If so, let's talk about some possible orders with deliveries starting in either the 2025 or 2030 time frame (assuming you also are going to do a nice efficiency upgrade on the A220 program by 2030).

Airbus and Boeing: Got any plans to launch and start delivery, in 2025 or so, of something with more seats and a longer range than an A321XLR but also with fewer seats, a shorter range, and a lower per-seat cost (for both in terms of initial acquisition cost and long term operational cost) than a B-787-8 or an A330-800? We're expecting to run out of B-767-300ERs around then and might want to keep flying routes of similar distance and with similar passenger demand. Or we might just give up on operating those routes and just hope our customers will agree to fly to partner hubs in Europe, Asia, and S. America on larger aircraft and accept an extra connection. Or maybe international flying won't have recovered by then and we will just shrink. So really, we're saying please try to impress us into buying new aircraft of this size and range or we're just going to shrink our fleet. (And maybe just upgauge some key hub to hub routes to A350-900/1000s.)

And given that the responses to all 3 of the above questions is likely be along the lines of "We have no such plans."
MROs and parts suppliers: We've got fleets of A319/320 CEOs, B-737NGs, and B-757s that we intend to keep flying until at least 2030 and maybe longer, so you can count on our business up to, and perhaps beyond, 2030, so please don't be closing up shop before then, because you'll have a loyal customer in Delta. Well, unless you increase your prices, because if you do that, we're going to just immediately exercise our option to buy 100 new A320s and cancel our contracts with you. But otherwise, it's nice doing business with you.

Exactly delta is not a company famously loyal to irs suppliers and contractors it's all about what have you done for me lately
 
Speedy752
Posts: 219
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2020 4:13 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:16 am

[threeid][/threeid]
NWADTWE16 wrote:
Bravo Delta, this is the right move! The 737900 is a horribly uncomfortable bird, especially compared one to one with the Airbus A321. The A321 is higher off the ground, wider (more spacious overall for passenger comfort), more powerful, uses less runway, does not require a ground stick to keep it from tipping on its arse, on and on. I will dearly miss the 757, and the power behind its takeoffs, that said the A321 is very powerful and the best replacement for them. The A221/3/5, A320/21, A339, A350-9/10 (dreaming)...best product line right there.


I know I can feel those extra feet of ground clearance! The comfort factor for me as a passenger of even slightly newer tires with higher tread is amazing /s

It’s literally the same interior with a flash drives worth of seat width.
 
Josh76040
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu May 28, 2020 11:02 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:38 am

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
Josh76040 wrote:

Back in 2011, AA borrowed a great deal to finance a huge Airbus order about 6 months prior to filing BK. Delta’s order does not mean they are healthy, and neither does their ability to borrow.

Delta BK 2021? Hmmm...


Delta has $8.6B in cash right now, they won't be filing bankruptcy anytime soon.


AA had $6 Billion in cash when it filed in 2011. BK is about for more than the cash on hand.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11753
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 12:55 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
Biden pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 - CNBC

If the US Govt is serious, DL will need to get more efficient alot quicker the current thinking on aircraft retirements. And the most efficient aircraft out there is the A-220. Expect tax incentives to replace aircraft sooner.


Tax incentives? I doubt it. It would be a lot cheaper per unit of CO2 reduction just to tax aviation fuel or tickets. The fuel burn improvement/CO2 reduction from aircraft one gen to the next isn't that significant. Incentives to get old trucks off the road would be a lot more tax-efficient.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11753
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:13 pm

ifIHadWings wrote:
And given that the responses to all 3 of the above questions is likely be along the lines of "We have no such plans."
MROs and parts suppliers: We've got fleets of A319/320 CEOs, B-737NGs, and B-757s that we intend to keep flying until at least 2030 and maybe longer, so you can count on our business up to, and perhaps beyond, 2030, so please don't be closing up shop before then, because you'll have a loyal customer in Delta. Well, unless you increase your prices, because if you do that, we're going to just immediately exercise our option to buy 100 new A320s and cancel our contracts with you. But otherwise, it's nice doing business with you.


I can agree with much of your outline but not that last piece. DL will not be flying 35-38 year old A320s and 757s in 2030. Nor probably 26-31 year old A319s - the op economics vs. alternatives are just awful. The fleets of DL 757-200s, A319s and A320s are functional today but rapidly becoming economically obsolete. The improved economics of 321LR/XLR and MAX 10 will force the CapEx spending before 2030. Nor do I believe that DL will leave a massive seat capacity hole between 130-seat A220-300s and 180-seat 739s.

Anybody who thinks DL couldn't borrow an extra $10 Billion to buy a hundred aircraft 2023-2027 is just wrong. This is the same grievous misunderstanding of U.S. capital markets that argued Boeing was going to run out of money. Yeah, right.

Boeing won't be needing a federal bailout after all.

The troubled aircraft maker said Thursday that it is raising $25 billion through a bond offering — a massive financial boost that Boeing says will keep it from having to tap into the CARES Act.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/business ... index.html
 
Lootess
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:05 pm

One thing that can’t be disputed is Delta is opportunistic about end-of-the-line orders such as 739 and A321ceo. The 739 likely had 787 compensation behind it as well. Which is an excellent plan, then on the other end of the scale they are the first for models like A220 and A330neo. Ed had said he’d like to launch NMA if it works out. Whoever makes the best 757 replacement is the golden goose again.
 
DL220MSP
Posts: 22
Joined: Thu Mar 25, 2021 4:10 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:36 pm

Lootess wrote:
One thing that can’t be disputed is Delta is opportunistic about end-of-the-line orders such as 739 and A321ceo. The 739 likely had 787 compensation behind it as well. Which is an excellent plan, then on the other end of the scale they are the first for models like A220 and A330neo. Ed had said he’d like to launch NMA if it works out. Whoever makes the best 757 replacement is the golden goose again.


DL already operates and even ordered more of the best 757 replacement.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 1012
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:42 pm

Josh76040 wrote:

AA had $6 Billion in cash when it filed in 2011. BK is about for more than the cash on hand.


In the US, yes it is indeed
 
Dalmd88
Posts: 3312
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 3:19 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:47 pm

ifIHadWings wrote:
As I recall, Delta made a deal with P&W to be an MRO for the P&W geared turbofan engines on the A220s and A320 NEOs, but couldn't get a similar deal with CFM for the engines used on the B-737Max. As such, it would seem Delta is highly likely to buy A320NEO aircraft instead of B-737Max for the remainder of this decade unless CFM changes their mind about engine maintenance contracts. It seems to me this shouldn't be so much a Boeing vs. Airbus discussion, as a CFM vs P&W discussion. Since P&W engines are only pared with the A220 and A320 families and not with the B-737Max, that seems to limit what Delta is likely to buy for now.

This is a huge part of the equation of what plane to purchase. What I heard was CFM was only going to allow Delta Tech Ops to do the disassembly and assembly portions of the engine visits. There is very little money to be made in that portion of the visit. CFM was going to require that all the removed parts of the engine that needed repair work were sent to them and they would do the repairs. This was unacceptable for two reasons. The repair work is were the money is made. Secondly Tech Ops would be at the mercy of CFM to return those parts in a timely manner. Being the sole repairer, CFM has no incentive to be fast so Delta Tech Ops ends up with engines sitting around waiting for parts and outside customers blaming Delta for the slow turn time on the engine.

Now P&W gave Delta the repair authority on the GTF for most of the repair work. On a Delta engine we save money by lowering the cost with quick in house repairs and make money off of any customer engines.

That swings a lot into the favor of the GTF airplanes.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9833
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:11 pm

AECM wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
What's the cheapest and lightest the A321 neo can operate at? No aux tank, MTOW and engine derate? Maybe that is enough and a smaller frame between the A220 will not be purchased.
The lowest MTOW for the A321NEO is at 80 ton


The MTOW is not a factor in this considerations. Minimum OEW is. You do not have to fill up with unnecessary fuel for short flights, you can fly well below MTOW. If you are bothered about fees, you can always paper reduce the MTOW.
The OEW with 3 ACT is about 50.1 t, remove the ACT and you get a lower OEW.
 
mjoelnir
Posts: 9833
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:06 pm

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:34 pm

I look at this 25 frame order as incremental. They have now 125 A321neo on order. At the same time thy keep options at 100 for A320neo family frames. I expect Delta to order more A320neo family frames, why else do they keep options at this level.

There are still 11 A321ceo to be delivered. Bringing their number to 127.
125 A321neo could fully replace all Boeing 757.
100 A320 family options could replace the 55 A320ceo and 45 Boeing 717.
The 57 A319ceo are about covered by the A220-300 order.
The 737-900 are young and do not need replacements.
The only frames not covered by replacement orders or options are the 77 Boeing 737-800, that do not need replacements right away at an average age of 20 years.
Why is here this optimism about Delta ordering the 737MAX?
 
rta
Posts: 1436
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2015 2:01 am

Re: Delta Orders Another 25 A321 NEO + 25 Options

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:49 pm

I think DL has been quite happy with the A321. And as a customer, I like them as well. When they've been flying them on routes like GRR/DTW, you know they'll be able to find a place for them anywhere. I think the 737MAX at DL is very unlikely.

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