LAX772LR wrote:

seahawk wrote:

it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.

Really? ...give us some examples of what that risk could plausibly be.

There is a need to have flexibility considering DL's history of three main trends with their fleet (made even more pronounced post NW merger): 1. opportunistic fleet additions, 2. a tradition of flying the smallest/nimblest viable aircraft, and all coupled with 3. a desire to complete MX in-house and run that as a separate business.

You need #3 if you're going to continue to buy used aircraft and have mixed engines in your fleet. And you need #1 if you still find #2 produces the best margins. Finally you can't really do #1 if you don't have a decent relationship with the vendor. I'm sure Boeing will sell DL a depressed asset if they are truly desperate even though the relationship is terrible. That requires DL to be in good financial position when Boeing is desperate and its not smart to run your business based on lining up stars and the moon given how cyclical aviation is.

To give a better illustration of why Delta's behavior gives then reason to be on good terms with all major vendors: There is evidence that the 737NG (no idea on the Max) performs better on a CASM basis than the 320CEO on longer routes. Hence why you see the 321 rolling up and down the east coast from ATL but the 739 running out West. Similar patterns from DTW, at least pre-Covid. If 200ish fleets of both families produce similar overhead expenses compared to 400ish sized fleets, then running both types makes sense. And if running both makes sense, then maintaining relationships is in their interest.

another illustration: Also if Delta wants to be opportunistic in buying used aircraft, it makes sense for keeping relationships with all three (5 if you treat IAE and CFM as separate from the big 3) engine OEMs strong as well. That way DL can buy used 320s regardless of power plant. Look at their 767 fleet as an example.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

luckyone wrote:

HIA350 wrote:

you're right, I have a few friends that work at DL in TPA as mechanic and loaders they prefer the a321 than the 737's as a customer i only flight jetblue, flown on 737 from united and delta and they are waqy by far less comfortable than the a321 hence i'm 6'1 220 lbs so not small person

While that indeed may be your perception, the seats on Delta's A321 are the same as their seats on 737s, at the same pitch (at least the 739, the 738 some seats actually have an extra inch of pitch. A wider aisle may make walking easier, but the seats are the same. I'm roughly the same size as you, and can tell no difference between the two aircraft. Personally, I avoid this problem entirely and any flight over two hours I book Economy Plus.

I'm not surprised the loaders would prefer the Airbus, though. the underfloor compartment is larger.

That is incorrect. Per DL's website, the 737 have 17.3" width, whereas the 32X have 18" width. The roomier seats are noticeable to many.

NW opted for a wider aisle and installed the same seats on the 319 and 320 as the 757, but DL replaced the former NW seats as the aircraft were refurbished.

A difference of width about as wide as my thumb nail, that you'd have to look for to notice. Legroom is what most people complain about.

luckyone wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

luckyone wrote:

While that indeed may be your perception, the seats on Delta's A321 are the same as their seats on 737s, at the same pitch (at least the 739, the 738 some seats actually have an extra inch of pitch. A wider aisle may make walking easier, but the seats are the same. I'm roughly the same size as you, and can tell no difference between the two aircraft. Personally, I avoid this problem entirely and any flight over two hours I book Economy Plus.

I'm not surprised the loaders would prefer the Airbus, though. the underfloor compartment is larger.

That is incorrect. Per DL's website, the 737 have 17.3" width, whereas the 32X have 18" width. The roomier seats are noticeable to many.

NW opted for a wider aisle and installed the same seats on the 319 and 320 as the 757, but DL replaced the former NW seats as the aircraft were refurbished.

A difference of width about as wide as my thumb nail, that you'd have to look for to notice. Legroom is what most people complain about.

all you need to do is fly a 2 leg delta flight that connects with a A320 on one leg than a 737 the next. While the width of a thumb sounds small it is in fact noticable. Also the dimensions of the airbus are more comfortable in many opinion. People forget that the tube's are not the same. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

micstatic wrote:

luckyone wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

That is incorrect. Per DL's website, the 737 have 17.3" width, whereas the 32X have 18" width. The roomier seats are noticeable to many.

NW opted for a wider aisle and installed the same seats on the 319 and 320 as the 757, but DL replaced the former NW seats as the aircraft were refurbished.

A difference of width about as wide as my thumb nail, that you'd have to look for to notice. Legroom is what most people complain about.

all you need to do is fly a 2 leg delta flight that connects with a A320 on one leg than a 737 the next. While the width of a thumb sounds small it is in fact noticable. Also the dimensions of the airbus are more comfortable in many opinion. People forget that the tube's are not the same. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

Been there. Done that--this is a mountain being made out of a molehill. Meanwhile it's also comical that people complain about the 739, but not the 757. It's the same interior dimensions. Any differences in perceived comfort will be based on how the carrier chooses to outfit the aircraft, rather than the aircraft itself.

DL220MSP wrote:

Lootess wrote:

One thing that can’t be disputed is Delta is opportunistic about end-of-the-line orders such as 739 and A321ceo. The 739 likely had 787 compensation behind it as well. Which is an excellent plan, then on the other end of the scale they are the first for models like A220 and A330neo. Ed had said he’d like to launch NMA if it works out. Whoever makes the best 757 replacement is the golden goose again.

DL already operates and even ordered more of the best 757 replacement.

Best available now, but let’s be real the A321 isn’t a like-for-like 757. It will handle most of its missions.

P&W GTF and RR also have the upper hand at Delta going forward because of the TechOps contracts. The NMA whenever it’s no longer on paper is the best shot of a future Boeing order, not the MAX.

luckyone wrote:

micstatic wrote:

luckyone wrote:

A difference of width about as wide as my thumb nail, that you'd have to look for to notice. Legroom is what most people complain about.

all you need to do is fly a 2 leg delta flight that connects with a A320 on one leg than a 737 the next. While the width of a thumb sounds small it is in fact noticable. Also the dimensions of the airbus are more comfortable in many opinion. People forget that the tube's are not the same. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

Been there. Done that--this is a mountain being made out of a molehill. Meanwhile it's also comical that people complain about the 739, but not the 757. It's the same interior dimensions. Any differences in perceived comfort will be based on how the carrier chooses to outfit the aircraft, rather than the aircraft itself.

I’m a 737 fan, but there is much more shoulder space in a window seat on an A320 series than a 737, which makes it more comfortable.

739 complaints usually come from FAs cause of the galley config. But as a passenger in F, it’s a good ride anyday. But in Y, the A321 is better.

Lootess wrote:

Best available now, but let’s be real the A321 isn’t a like-for-like 757. It will handle most of its missions.

No the A321 is not a like-for-like replacement for the 757. The A321neo is that more economical to operate, that there is no comparison.

mjoelnir wrote:

I look at this 25 frame order as incremental. They have now 125 A321neo on order. At the same time thy keep options at 100 for A320neo family frames. I expect Delta to order more A320neo family frames, why else do they keep options at this level.

There are still 11 A321ceo to be delivered. Bringing their number to 127.
125 A321neo could fully replace all Boeing 757.
100 A320 family options could replace the 55 A320ceo and 45 Boeing 717.
The 57 A319ceo are about covered by the A220-300 order.
The 737-900 are young and do not need replacements.
The only frames not covered by replacement orders or options are the 77 Boeing 737-800, that do not need replacements right away at an average age of 20 years.
Why is here this optimism about Delta ordering the 737MAX?

Also, there are 50 options on the 220-300. If every order is fulfilled, that's +352 A321s, +145 A220s. Add in the 130 739s, that's 627 new NB jets.

≈ Reposting here from another thread≈
There are still about 230 firm orders with 150 options. Most of the the firm orders will be delivered by 2025.

221 = 4
223 = 42 (+50 options)
321ceo = 11
321neo = 125 (+100 options)
339neo = 29
359 = 20

Right now, DL is down about 130 mainline aircraft from pre-COVID highs (~900 jets). Theres enough firm orders to recover over time, especially if options are exercised. Also factor in that most of the parked aircraft were 717, MD88/90s, 737-7s, 320s. Most of the replacements are larger gauge 321s. Same with 763s replaced by 339s. So seats are being replaced without a 1 for 1 frame replacement.

Another facet to consider is the parking of the CRJ2s. Also, the 35 76-seat RJs that are indefinitely parked due to scope clause issues.

MIflyer12 wrote:

MohawkWeekend wrote:

Biden pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 - CNBC

If the US Govt is serious, DL will need to get more efficient alot quicker the current thinking on aircraft retirements. And the most efficient aircraft out there is the A-220. Expect tax incentives to replace aircraft sooner.

Tax incentives? I doubt it. It would be a lot cheaper per unit of CO2 reduction just to tax aviation fuel or tickets. The fuel burn improvement/CO2 reduction from aircraft one gen to the next isn't that significant. Incentives to get old trucks off the road would be a lot more tax-efficient.

I agree on the tax but I think the politicians are fearful of a large carbon tax (see France). It's much easier to add to the deficit that nobody seems to care about.

luckyone wrote:

micstatic wrote:

luckyone wrote:

A difference of width about as wide as my thumb nail, that you'd have to look for to notice. Legroom is what most people complain about.

all you need to do is fly a 2 leg delta flight that connects with a A320 on one leg than a 737 the next. While the width of a thumb sounds small it is in fact noticable. Also the dimensions of the airbus are more comfortable in many opinion. People forget that the tube's are not the same. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

Been there. Done that--this is a mountain being made out of a molehill. Meanwhile it's also comical that people complain about the 739, but not the 757. It's the same interior dimensions. Any differences in perceived comfort will be based on how the carrier chooses to outfit the aircraft, rather than the aircraft itself.

isn't the floor of the 757 is somewhat lower? This makes the cabin more spacious and hence feel more comfortable. I have heard people complain about the 757 before. But obviously not as much as we hear people complain about the 737

MIflyer12 wrote:

I can agree with much of your outline but not that last piece. DL will not be flying 35-38 year old A320s and 757s in 2030. Nor probably 26-31 year old A319s - the op economics vs. alternatives are just awful. The fleets of DL 757-200s, A319s and A320s are functional today but rapidly becoming economically obsolete. The improved economics of 321LR/XLR and MAX 10 will force the CapEx spending before 2030. Nor do I believe that DL will leave a massive seat capacity hole between 130-seat A220-300s and 180-seat 739s.

Anybody who thinks DL couldn't borrow an extra $10 Billion to buy a hundred aircraft 2023-2027 is just wrong.

Of course DL isn't going to be flying 35-38yo A320 and 757 in 2030 -- it has ~180 narrowbodys scheduled for delivery over the next five years precisely to replace those aircraft. But yes, we'll see plenty of 26-31yo A319, A320, B738 and B757. There's absolutely no evidence to suggest that DL is moving away from its previous philosophy of operating aircraft for the full duration of their useful life; in fact, as I mentioned earlier, UA has made the decision to refurbish its 20yo 32X and 737 that were previously thought to be replaced soon. And a year ago, when DL commented on the record number of 2019 deliveries, it stated future years would level off. As it is, DL will be taking delivery of ~50 aircraft a year over the next year. And if the economics of the NG and CEO were so poor, it's doubtful DL would've bought so many of them after the MAX and NEO were available.

Alas, it isn't that DL can't borrow an extra $10B, it's just that with a healthy new of new aircraft coming onboard over the next 5 years coupled with the huge debt load undertaken during COVID and uncertain times ahead -- remember, we have no idea when business travel will return, and to what degree; industry leaders largely agree that it will be a low fare environment in the near future -- it's unlikely DL will accelerate retirement of its fleet of now-20yo aircraft.

luckyone wrote:

micstatic wrote:

luckyone wrote:

A difference of width about as wide as my thumb nail, that you'd have to look for to notice. Legroom is what most people complain about.

all you need to do is fly a 2 leg delta flight that connects with a A320 on one leg than a 737 the next. While the width of a thumb sounds small it is in fact noticable. Also the dimensions of the airbus are more comfortable in many opinion. People forget that the tube's are not the same. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

Been there. Done that--this is a mountain being made out of a molehill. Meanwhile it's also comical that people complain about the 739, but not the 757. It's the same interior dimensions. Any differences in perceived comfort will be based on how the carrier chooses to outfit the aircraft, rather than the aircraft itself.

It definitely isn't perceived comfort. My small, elderly mother wouldn't know the difference between a DC-8, 727 or 320; when she flew out to see us last month, she came on a 321 and left on a 739, and later commented how much more comfortable the first plane she traveled on was (and the 739 was the newer frame of the two) even though DL's blocking the middle seat. And there are an infinite number of testimoals from people like her. And while I certainly don't seek out a 32X over a 737NG/757, I have large broad shoulders and definitely notice the difference.

Josh76040 wrote:

PhilMcCrackin wrote:

Josh76040 wrote:

Back in 2011, AA borrowed a great deal to finance a huge Airbus order about 6 months prior to filing BK. Delta’s order does not mean they are healthy, and neither does their ability to borrow.

Delta BK 2021? Hmmm...

Delta has $8.6B in cash right now, they won't be filing bankruptcy anytime soon.

AA had $6 Billion in cash when it filed in 2011. BK is about for more than the cash on hand.

You're right, but that doesn't make my original comment wrong or his any less ignorant.

AA was also $4B underwater when they filed bankruptcy in 2011. Delta is $23B above water as of Q1 2021. Again, DL isn't going into bk anytime soon.

PhilMcCrackin wrote:

Josh76040 wrote:

PhilMcCrackin wrote:

Delta has $8.6B in cash right now, they won't be filing bankruptcy anytime soon.

AA had $6 Billion in cash when it filed in 2011. BK is about for more than the cash on hand.

You're right, but that doesn't make my original comment wrong or his any less ignorant.

AA was also $4B underwater when they filed bankruptcy in 2011. Delta is $23B above water as of Q1 2021. Again, DL isn't going into bk anytime soon.

AA was in severe debt then, along with highest costs in the industry, yet was buying new 737s at breakneck pace and having to lease many. The situation was rather grim. Delta has nothing to worry about, neither do any of the US majors for that matter.

N717TW wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

seahawk wrote:

it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.

Really? ...give us some examples of what that risk could plausibly be.

There is a need to have flexibility considering DL's history of three main trends with their fleet (made even more pronounced post NW merger): 1. opportunistic fleet additions, 2. a tradition of flying the smallest/nimblest viable aircraft, and all coupled with 3. a desire to complete MX in-house and run that as a separate business.

You need #3 if you're going to continue to buy used aircraft and have mixed engines in your fleet.

That has nothing to do with what they choose to purchase for their own commercial use. DL (as a coincidental example) has the expertise and certification to offer MRO on fleets/engines/etc that they don't even operate, and airlines from all over the world come to them for that very effect.

Granted, don't get me wrong, I do anecdotally believe it's long-term risky even for LoCos to rely on a single EQP: imagine where WN/FR would be if the 737MAX had comprised a larger portion of their fleet when the 2yr grounding occurred. Where would they be?

I don't have the numbers to show it though. I suspect no one here does either. I think we'll continue to see plenty of airlines (though not necessarily DL) gravitate towards consolidated sources, until something along the lines of insolvency due to type grounding/revocation occurs for a decently sized player.

JonesNL wrote:

I would guess that they are waiting for the A225 in the 180 seat segment. No added cost of an different type and probably the most efficient in that class when it comes out...

Am I the only one who thinks about Antonov 225 when reading "A225" ?

LAX772LR wrote:

N717TW wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

Really? ...give us some examples of what that risk could plausibly be.

There is a need to have flexibility considering DL's history of three main trends with their fleet (made even more pronounced post NW merger): 1. opportunistic fleet additions, 2. a tradition of flying the smallest/nimblest viable aircraft, and all coupled with 3. a desire to complete MX in-house and run that as a separate business.

You need #3 if you're going to continue to buy used aircraft and have mixed engines in your fleet.

That has nothing to do with what they choose to purchase for their own commercial use. DL (as a coincidental example) has the expertise and certification to offer MRO on fleets/engines/etc that they don't even operate, and airlines from all over the world come to them for that very effect.

Granted, don't get me wrong, I do anecdotally believe it's long-term risky even for LoCos to rely on a single EQP: imagine where WN/FR would be if the 737MAX had comprised a larger portion of their fleet when the 2yr grounding occurred. Where would they be?

I don't have the numbers to show it though. I suspect no one here does either. I think we'll continue to see plenty of airlines (though not necessarily DL) gravitate towards consolidated sources, until something along the lines of insolvency due to type grounding/revocation occurs for a decently sized player.

Getting an engine MRO licence for the LEAP would be very interesting for Delta TechOps. If that means buying 737-8MAX to get it, it would be an interesting proposition. Surely it is still possible the GE/CFM won´t give them the licence and that this would make the MAX uninteresting for DL, but it is in Delta´s best interest to be open to offers from any OEM and buy what suits them best.

seahawk wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

N717TW wrote:

There is a need to have flexibility considering DL's history of three main trends with their fleet (made even more pronounced post NW merger): 1. opportunistic fleet additions, 2. a tradition of flying the smallest/nimblest viable aircraft, and all coupled with 3. a desire to complete MX in-house and run that as a separate business.

You need #3 if you're going to continue to buy used aircraft and have mixed engines in your fleet.

That has nothing to do with what they choose to purchase for their own commercial use. DL (as a coincidental example) has the expertise and certification to offer MRO on fleets/engines/etc that they don't even operate, and airlines from all over the world come to them for that very effect.

Granted, don't get me wrong, I do anecdotally believe it's long-term risky even for LoCos to rely on a single EQP: imagine where WN/FR would be if the 737MAX had comprised a larger portion of their fleet when the 2yr grounding occurred. Where would they be?

I don't have the numbers to show it though. I suspect no one here does either. I think we'll continue to see plenty of airlines (though not necessarily DL) gravitate towards consolidated sources, until something along the lines of insolvency due to type grounding/revocation occurs for a decently sized player.

Getting an engine MRO licence for the LEAP would be very interesting for Delta TechOps. If that means buying 737-8MAX to get it, it would be an interesting proposition. Surely it is still possible the GE/CFM won´t give them the licence and that this would make the MAX uninteresting for DL, but it is in Delta´s best interest to be open to offers from any OEM and buy what suits them best.

There are also CFM LEAP engines on the A320neo family aircraft. Why should Delta need to buy the 737MAX to get the engine MRO for the LEAP? It would be easier to take a mix of P&W and LEAP on their A320neo family aircraft, if CFM wants to Delta to use LEAP engines before they would get the MRO for those engines.
Anyway, I think the whole Delta A320ceo fleet is powered by CFM.

CFM is jointly owned by both SAFRAN and GE, 50% each. I have difficulties to understand why some posters here seem still to assume that CFM is mainly GE.

dstblj52 wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

seahawk wrote:

Getting an engine MRO licence for the LEAP would be very interesting for Delta TechOps. If that means buying 737-8MAX to get it, it would be an interesting proposition. Surely it is still possible the GE/CFM won´t give them the licence and that this would make the MAX uninteresting for DL, but it is in Delta´s best interest to be open to offers from any OEM and buy what suits them best.

There are also CFM LEAP engines on the A320neo family aircraft. Why should Delta need to buy the 737MAX to get the engine MRO for the LEAP? It would be easier to take a mix of P&W and LEAP on their A320neo family aircraft, if CFM wants to Delta to use LEAP engines before they would get the MRO for those engines.
Anyway, I think the whole Delta A320ceo fleet is powered by CFM.

CFM is jointly owned by both SAFRAN and GE, 50% each. I have difficulties to understand why some posters here seem still to assume that CFM is mainly GE.

CFM has taken on the GE philosophy on not letting other people work on their engines and push PBH contracts which delta isn't really interested in for volume engines

But they are not consistent in that either and LH Technik got a licence for the LEAP family.

https://www.lufthansa-technik.com/aircraft-engines

But I agree as long as GE/CFM does not give Delta TechOps the licence to work on the LEAP, Delta will not buy the MAX.

2eng2efficient wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

FlyGuyNash wrote:

I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.

Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.

Accelerate retirement? No, obviously not. But DL has over 100 A319/A320 and over 70 738 (if Wiki is in the ballpark) - and some of those birds just don’t have that much life left. Unless DL is going to shrink significantly in the 2025-27 timeframe, another major narrowbody order is inevitable, and there is no reason to believe that they won’t consider the MAX. It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing over the A220 disaster that came back and slapped them in the face over. That was just insanity, and no doubt still lingers on the minds of the top execs at Delta. Boeing tried to strongarm Delta , Bombardier, and Airbus. Then, take a look at the MAX. Currently 90 of them grounded in the US again...... After just coming off 2 years of being grounded. The electrical issue seems to be more serious than first thought, as there is still no time frame to get those planes back in the air. And you would think with 2 years of fixing the mess they made, they would have found the electrical issue during that time? Those 90 frames are just in the US. I'm sure the airline execs that have their MAX's grounded yet again aren't very happy.

So... Airbus has been consistent (unlike Boeing), and Delta obviously loves their relationship with Airbus. I wouldn't be surprised if the next major narrow body order will be primarily Airbus.

And I am no A versus B guy. I am just standing on the outside looking in.... And Boeing certainly did some dirty stuff to Delta, Airbus, and Bombardier when things were good. And why would Delta even consider ordering the MAX right now after all the mess Boeing has been in and put them through?

WidebodyPTV wrote:

luckyone wrote:

micstatic wrote:

all you need to do is fly a 2 leg delta flight that connects with a A320 on one leg than a 737 the next. While the width of a thumb sounds small it is in fact noticable. Also the dimensions of the airbus are more comfortable in many opinion. People forget that the tube's are not the same. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.

Been there. Done that--this is a mountain being made out of a molehill. Meanwhile it's also comical that people complain about the 739, but not the 757. It's the same interior dimensions. Any differences in perceived comfort will be based on how the carrier chooses to outfit the aircraft, rather than the aircraft itself.

It definitely isn't perceived comfort. My small, elderly mother wouldn't know the difference between a DC-8, 727 or 320; when she flew out to see us last month, she came on a 321 and left on a 739, and later commented how much more comfortable the first plane she traveled on was (and the 739 was the newer frame of the two) even though DL's blocking the middle seat. And there are an infinite number of testimoals from people like her. And while I certainly don't seek out a 32X over a 737NG/757, I have large broad shoulders and definitely notice the difference.

I know I am not the only one who prefers the 320/321 over a 737!! Major major difference in comfort, especially in coach. That extra inch of width is absolutely amazing. Wish Boeing would find a way to get their cabin width on the 737 just a few inches wider!

F9Animal wrote:

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing

Corporations aren't sorority mean-girls.... you're ascribing emotion to what is, and always will be, a numbers/value/equity-based response.

Whomever presents the the greatest overall value, will be the winner.

F9Animal wrote:

2eng2efficient wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.

Accelerate retirement? No, obviously not. But DL has over 100 A319/A320 and over 70 738 (if Wiki is in the ballpark) - and some of those birds just don’t have that much life left. Unless DL is going to shrink significantly in the 2025-27 timeframe, another major narrowbody order is inevitable, and there is no reason to believe that they won’t consider the MAX. It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing over the A220 disaster that came back and slapped them in the face over. That was just insanity, and no doubt still lingers on the minds of the top execs at Delta. Boeing tried to strongarm Delta , Bombardier, and Airbus. Then, take a look at the MAX. Currently 90 of them grounded in the US again......

I am quite certain that Delta would still be okay, if they can get a batch of 737-8MAX for a very low price and a cheap LEAP engine maintenance licence to go with it. In fact I am certain that Delta is dangling that carrot in front of the noses of Boeing and CFM right now.

Delta now has 125 A321NEO on order. Just to get the thread back on topic.

seahawk wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

2eng2efficient wrote:

Accelerate retirement? No, obviously not. But DL has over 100 A319/A320 and over 70 738 (if Wiki is in the ballpark) - and some of those birds just don’t have that much life left. Unless DL is going to shrink significantly in the 2025-27 timeframe, another major narrowbody order is inevitable, and there is no reason to believe that they won’t consider the MAX. It would be surprising to see one of the world’s largest airlines become dependent on one manufacturer.

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing over the A220 disaster that came back and slapped them in the face over. That was just insanity, and no doubt still lingers on the minds of the top execs at Delta. Boeing tried to strongarm Delta , Bombardier, and Airbus. Then, take a look at the MAX. Currently 90 of them grounded in the US again......

I am quite certain that Delta would still be okay, if they can get a batch of 737-8MAX for a very low price and a cheap LEAP engine maintenance licence to go with it. In fact I am certain that Delta is dangling that carrot in front of the noses of Boeing and CFM right now.

I do not believe that CFM/Safran cares if Delta buys its LEAP on the A320neo or 737MAX. Anyway, why should a deal with Boeing help Delta get a deal with CFM?

Opus99 wrote:

tomcat wrote:

From the Delta press release:

Delta and Airbus have agreed to add incremental aircraft to Delta’s order book of cutting-edge, safe, reliable and lower-emissions aircraft by converting purchase rights for 25 A321neo aircraft into firm orders, and replenishing Delta’s purchase rights.

I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?

Well, whatever delta does. BA cannot and will not wait for their business unless they will die waiting. Other business to extract elsewhere and I think they’ve come to terms with that

Congratulations to delta and airbus

Could you call Boeing by Boeing, as BA is an airline and Boeing is a manufacturer.

LAX772LR wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing

Corporations aren't sorority mean-girls.... you're ascribing emotion to what is, and always will be, a numbers/value/equity-based response.

Whomever presents the the greatest overall value, will be the winner.

I don't disagree that corporations will try to be objective.
However, there is little doubt that if the value propositions are close, the working relationship WILL come into play.

In my experience this will usually manifest itself in the way that Programme Risks are described and quantified in the business case that gets presented to the BOD.
There are always ways to "finesse" a decision within certain limits...........

Rgds

mjoelnir wrote:

seahawk wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing over the A220 disaster that came back and slapped them in the face over. That was just insanity, and no doubt still lingers on the minds of the top execs at Delta. Boeing tried to strongarm Delta , Bombardier, and Airbus. Then, take a look at the MAX. Currently 90 of them grounded in the US again......

I am quite certain that Delta would still be okay, if they can get a batch of 737-8MAX for a very low price and a cheap LEAP engine maintenance licence to go with it. In fact I am certain that Delta is dangling that carrot in front of the noses of Boeing and CFM right now.

I do not believe that CFM/Safran cares if Delta buys its LEAP on the A320neo or 737MAX. Anyway, why should a deal with Boeing help Delta get a deal with CFM?

Maybe Boeing is able to pressure CFM or maybe they are not.

DL220MSP wrote:

seahawk wrote:

It seems like a big 737-8MAX and 797 (NMA) order is imminent. DL has avoided filling this segments with Airbuses and it would be very risky to depend on Airbus only.

How would it be VERY RISKY to depend on Airbus only? SW and United depend on Boeing only? Is that VERY RISKY, too?

So 120 active and 46 parked A319/A320 airframes don't count as United depending on Airbus Also. Only WN is Boeing dependent.

In comparison, American Airlines operate 218 A321-200 and they ordered 120 A321neo/XLR. Delta's order seems miniscule compared to AA's A321.

They didn't order the MAX yet, nor do they order A320neo. Maybe they are heading for A220 + A321 combo in the future for their domestic operations.

dstblj52 wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

seahawk wrote:

I am quite certain that Delta would still be okay, if they can get a batch of 737-8MAX for a very low price and a cheap LEAP engine maintenance licence to go with it. In fact I am certain that Delta is dangling that carrot in front of the noses of Boeing and CFM right now.

I do not believe that CFM/Safran cares if Delta buys its LEAP on the A320neo or 737MAX. Anyway, why should a deal with Boeing help Delta get a deal with CFM?

Because as a exclusive pairing they both have the same interest here whereas airbus is just as happy to hang pratt engines under the wings

Yes, and because Airbus is prepared to hang P&W under the neo wings, CFM/Safran could loose the sales of 450+ engines if they do not play nice with Delta.
With Delta being a reliable CFM/Safran customer up to now.

rbavfan wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

tomcat wrote:

From the Delta press release:


I underlined the word "safe" because I find it quite surprising to read it in such a press release. Is it an indication that Delta's relationship with Boeing is far from being amicable? Or is it more a way to tease their competitors ordering the Max?

Well, whatever delta does. BA cannot and will not wait for their business unless they will die waiting. Other business to extract elsewhere and I think they’ve come to terms with that

Congratulations to delta and airbus

Could you call Boeing by Boeing, as BA is an airline and Boeing is a manufacturer.

In many circles outside of this forum, BA is Boeing, as that is their stock ticker.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/

ewt340 wrote:

In comparison, American Airlines operate 218 A321-200 and they ordered 120 A321neo/XLR. Delta's order seems miniscule compared to AA's A321.

They didn't order the MAX yet, nor do they order A320neo. Maybe they are heading for A220 + A321 combo in the future for their domestic operations.

Of all the mainline operators DL have historically had a spread of aircraft size and aircraft ages, since the NW merger, 12+ years ago, they have consistently had a small mainline narrow body. First the DC9, later 717 and the A220 into the future. They have also had a sizeable large narrow body fleet in the 757, being replaced on North American duties by 739 and A321s. I agree that the A320s and 738s are going to be next for replacement. I will be interesting to see how DL replaces them, while the A32N/7M8 is a 1:1 replacement 7M10 or A321neos if DL finds the revenue from the additional seats is worth the additional crewing costs.
I think DL has a huge amount of flexibility with their future orders and could secure fantastic pricing for launching the A225 (A319/A320/738 replacement) and the NMA (738/A320/757/767 replacements), if those aircraft become reality.

https://simpleflying.com/delta-fleet-st ... arrowbody/

Sorry for putting a SF article, but does anyone share my opinion that I disagree with SF and them saying that the 321neo order will do a 1 on 1 replacement for the 757 200 fleet? I mean, DL has some of the last 757s off the line, not to mention the 757s are fully paid off and can be flown reliably till the next D check or 2. The oldest birds will probably leave after the next D check but I fully expect the late 90s, early 00s builds to stick around a year or so after the last 767-300ER leaves. Not to mention DL has been doing some cargo work on the 757 as well. Not to mention the 753s and the NBA charters.

Once again, very sorry for putting a SF article.

ikolkyo wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

FlyGuyNash wrote:

I don't think any Boeing order is dead or not gonna happen yet. This still is not nearly what Delta needs going forward to rebuild their fleet and replace aging aircraft.

Wishful thinking. Given DL's size, any MAX order would have to be sizeable, otherwise it wouldn't make economic sense. DL has enough planes on order to satisfy its fleet renewal needs for the next 5+ years. Any opportunity for DL to accelerate retirement of the 319, 320, 738 & 757 / 753 largely vanished last year, when DL took on a ton of debt.

With that logic there would be a huge gap between the A223, (130 seats) and the -900ER(180 seats). Another order for A320neo or MAX 8 is inevitable IMO.

I agree. If the MAX 8 is ordered, the MAX 9 will be too.

DL should replace A319s (hello A223) and the older A320s.

The debt cannot be ignored at Delta. However, I suspect MAX terms will be favorable enough.

Now this A321NEO purchase is a big deal. That allows some 757s to be retired.

With the large 739ER fleet, it is not a big deal for Delta to take on the MAX. Pilot training and most maintenance is an easy transition.

What is a big deal is engine maintenance and overhaul. Either Delta is allowed to develop LEAP repairs or Delta will stick with the GTF. So far CFM doesn't seem willing to offer a package compatible to Pratt's offer. Now if we want to make statements that Pratt bought into DL, I agree. Now DL has a cost basis and the LEAP either competes or it doesn't.

Lightsaber

JoseSalazar wrote:

In many circles outside of this forum, BA is Boeing, as that is their stock ticker.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BA/

Yes, but given this is airliners.net and not stockmarket.net, most folks will assume "BA" is British Airways IATA code first.

mjoelnir wrote:

dstblj52 wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

I do not believe that CFM/Safran cares if Delta buys its LEAP on the A320neo or 737MAX. Anyway, why should a deal with Boeing help Delta get a deal with CFM?

Because as a exclusive pairing they both have the same interest here whereas airbus is just as happy to hang pratt engines under the wings

Yes, and because Airbus is prepared to hang P&W under the neo wings, CFM/Safran could loose the sales of 450+ engines if they do not play nice with Delta.
With Delta being a reliable CFM/Safran customer up to now.

Delta has, in my opinion, been a reliable CFM customer due to an extensive overhaul and repair deal. It is my opinion that engine maintenance is the entire crux of the problem at DL.

Oh, Delta debt is an issue, but I see them working around that. I completely agree that either CFM concedes to DL or DL will keep buying Pratts.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

Oh, Delta debt is an issue...

I would really like to see you outline your reasoning for that.

DL ended 1Q21 with $31.6 Billion in long term debt (and $14.2 Billion in cash and short-term investments; no available liquidity nonsense)

UA ended 1Q21 with $32.6 Billion in LT debt and $13.2 billion cash/short term investments (and a mainline fleet that is, on avg, 2.3 years older than Delta's).

AA ended 1Q21 with $44.0 Billion in LT debt and $14.9 Billion in cash/short term investments.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/s ... et/quarter

Does anybody here think that AA is a failing concern with bankruptcy imminent? Delta could snap its fingers and raise $5 billion next week, let alone finance or pay from cash flow an incremental $10-15 Billion by 2027.

F9Animal wrote:

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing over the A220 disaster that came back and slapped them in the face over. That was just insanity, and no doubt still lingers on the minds of the top execs at Delta. Boeing tried to strongarm Delta , Bombardier, and Airbus.

BA acted in its own interest, DL acted in its own interest, I'm sure people at both places understood it on this basis. The end result is DL didn't pay any tariff, and got a A220 FAL in its home turf so it can have better visibility into the planes being produced with more local people trained on its tech. Now the aviation media is reporting that the US and EU are closer than ever to a long term settlement on airliner tariffs. Despite the rancor, the end result may end up being the resolution of a long standing international dispute that has been an industry wide issue for decades.

F9Animal wrote:

Then, take a look at the MAX. Currently 90 of them grounded in the US again...... After just coming off 2 years of being grounded. The electrical issue seems to be more serious than first thought, as there is still no time frame to get those planes back in the air. And you would think with 2 years of fixing the mess they made, they would have found the electrical issue during that time? Those 90 frames are just in the US. I'm sure the airline execs that have their MAX's grounded yet again aren't very happy.

Of course they are not happy, but they also know that the issue is a due to a manufacturing change that should be simple to correct and that FAA is rightly making sure all the i's are dotted and the t's are crossed since this happened on their watch (FAA inspectors now have to sign off each 737 so it's clear they missed this).

F9Animal wrote:

And why would Delta even consider ordering the MAX right now after all the mess Boeing has been in and put them through?

Because they don't want to be 100% beholden to Airbus, and Boeing can make them some great deals on airliners, ones their competitors may use to their advantage.

astuteman wrote:

I don't disagree that corporations will try to be objective.
However, there is little doubt that if the value propositions are close, the working relationship WILL come into play.

In my experience this will usually manifest itself in the way that Programme Risks are described and quantified in the business case that gets presented to the BOD.
There are always ways to "finesse" a decision within certain limits...........

I agree that a strong working relationship is a factor, but only one of many. I've seen the brown end of the stick many times when bean counters shafted vendors we had good working relationships with for a few pennies on the dollar.

ewt340 wrote:

In comparison, American Airlines operate 218 A321-200 and they ordered 120 A321neo/XLR. Delta's order seems miniscule compared to AA's A321.

They didn't order the MAX yet, nor do they order A320neo. Maybe they are heading for A220 + A321 combo in the future for their domestic operations.

I'm not sure where you are going with this. AA is a very large A321 operator, but also an even larger 737-800 and 737-8 operator. One could read this as suggesting DL could end up with a big 738 fleet, but you are suggesting the opposite.

seahawk wrote:

But they are not consistent in that either and LH Technik got a licence for the LEAP family.

https://www.lufthansa-technik.com/aircraft-engines

But I agree as long as GE/CFM does not give Delta TechOps the licence to work on the LEAP, Delta will not buy the MAX.

it's interesting (to me at least) that WN ended up using media leaks to get CFM to improve its terms on the big MAX deal recently concluded. I wonder if we'll end up seeing more media leaks directed at CFM in future MAX sales campaigns.

ewt340 wrote:

In comparison, American Airlines operate 218 A321-200 and they ordered 120 A321neo/XLR. Delta's order seems miniscule compared to AA's A321.

They didn't order the MAX yet, nor do they order A320neo. Maybe they are heading for A220 + A321 combo in the future for their domestic operations.

DL's 125 A321neos vs AA's 120 A321neos is minuscule??? I guess I don't understand math

WayexTDI wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

In comparison, American Airlines operate 218 A321-200 and they ordered 120 A321neo/XLR. Delta's order seems miniscule compared to AA's A321.

They didn't order the MAX yet, nor do they order A320neo. Maybe they are heading for A220 + A321 combo in the future for their domestic operations.

DL's 125 A321neos vs AA's 120 A321neos is minuscule??? I guess I don't understand math

He seems to have forgotten Deltas116 A321CEOs...

Revelation wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing over the A220 disaster that came back and slapped them in the face over. That was just insanity, and no doubt still lingers on the minds of the top execs at Delta. Boeing tried to strongarm Delta , Bombardier, and Airbus.

BA acted in its own interest, DL acted in its own interest, I'm sure people at both places understood it on this basis. The end result is DL didn't pay any tariff, and got a A220 FAL in its home turf so it can have better visibility into the planes being produced with more local people trained on its tech. Now the aviation media is reporting that the US and EU are closer than ever to a long term settlement on airliner tariffs. Despite the rancor, the end result may end up being the resolution of a long standing international dispute that has been an industry wide issue for decades.

The A220 issue is not connected to the dispute between the USA and the EU. It is connected to the USA laws allowing USA companies to sell products below the production cost, but not a foreign company.

Revelation wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

Then, take a look at the MAX. Currently 90 of them grounded in the US again...... After just coming off 2 years of being grounded. The electrical issue seems to be more serious than first thought, as there is still no time frame to get those planes back in the air. And you would think with 2 years of fixing the mess they made, they would have found the electrical issue during that time? Those 90 frames are just in the US. I'm sure the airline execs that have their MAX's grounded yet again aren't very happy.

Of course they are not happy, but they also know that the issue is a due to a manufacturing change that should be simple to correct and that FAA is rightly making sure all the i's are dotted and the t's are crossed since this happened on their watch (FAA inspectors now have to sign off each 737 so it's clear they missed this).

Boeing allowing a manufacturing change unchecked in regards to the consequences of the grounding of necessary equipment, shows again how far from normal and safe engineering practices Boeing operates.

Revelation wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

And why would Delta even consider ordering the MAX right now after all the mess Boeing has been in and put them through?

Because they don't want to be 100% beholden to Airbus, and Boeing can make them some great deals on airliners, ones their competitors may use to their advantage.

But it is OK to be beholden to one manufacturer if you happen to have a Boeing fleet.

Revelation wrote:

seahawk wrote:

But they are not consistent in that either and LH Technik got a licence for the LEAP family.

https://www.lufthansa-technik.com/aircraft-engines

But I agree as long as GE/CFM does not give Delta TechOps the licence to work on the LEAP, Delta will not buy the MAX.

it's interesting (to me at least) that WN ended up using media leaks to get CFM to improve its terms on the big MAX deal recently concluded. I wonder if we'll end up seeing more media leaks directed at CFM in future MAX sales campaigns.

I think Delta will get the licence to work on the LEAP, I see no reason why CFM/Safran should refuse them. Lufthansa did get the licence while flying the P&W only on their A320neo family frames. No 737MAX on order at Lufthansa.

DL220MSP wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

ewt340 wrote:

In comparison, American Airlines operate 218 A321-200 and they ordered 120 A321neo/XLR. Delta's order seems miniscule compared to AA's A321.

They didn't order the MAX yet, nor do they order A320neo. Maybe they are heading for A220 + A321 combo in the future for their domestic operations.

DL's 125 A321neos vs AA's 120 A321neos is minuscule??? I guess I don't understand math

He seems to have forgotten Deltas116 A321CEOs...

Exactly. DL has roughly 225 A320s on-hand and 135 on order; AA has 400 A320s on-hand and 88 on-order.
AA has a bigger A320 fleet (on-order + on-hand); but DL is no small fish.

WayexTDI wrote:

DL220MSP wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

DL's 125 A321neos vs AA's 120 A321neos is minuscule??? I guess I don't understand math

He seems to have forgotten Deltas116 A321CEOs...

Exactly. DL has roughly 225 A320s on-hand and 135 on order; AA has 400 A320s on-hand and 88 on-order.
AA has a bigger A320 fleet (on-order + on-hand); but DL is no small fish.

Well Delta also has 100 options. They may very well end up with 225 321neos + 127 321ceos for 352 total 321s. When that's all said and done, who knows how many of the 112 legacy 319/320s are still flying. Could realistically reach 400.

i'm sure it's been listed but on a say for example a trip from LGA to ATL, what is the fuel consumption difference between a DL 757-200 and a new A321.

Cactusjuba wrote:

WayexTDI wrote:

DL220MSP wrote:

He seems to have forgotten Deltas116 A321CEOs...

Exactly. DL has roughly 225 A320s on-hand and 135 on order; AA has 400 A320s on-hand and 88 on-order.
AA has a bigger A320 fleet (on-order + on-hand); but DL is no small fish.

Well Delta also has 100 options. They may very well end up with 225 321neos + 127 321ceos for 352 total 321s. When that's all said and done, who knows how many of the 112 legacy 319/320s are still flying. Could realistically reach 400.

I doubt any existing former NW 319's or 320's will be around by that point. They're about the same age as the 757's

astuteman wrote:

LAX772LR wrote:

F9Animal wrote:

I am almost certain Delta is still steaming pissed at Boeing

Corporations aren't sorority mean-girls.... you're ascribing emotion to what is, and always will be, a numbers/value/equity-based response.

Whomever presents the the greatest overall value, will be the winner.

I don't disagree that corporations will try to be objective.
However, there is little doubt that if the value propositions are close, the working relationship WILL come into play.

Agreed, though that's why "value" was mentioned, instead of simply price or cost; because the working relationship is absolutely a component of the value proposition.

And despite AvGeeks' attestation to the contrary, no one here really knows the true and current nature of Delta-Boeing's working relationship.

It's just like when A.netters swore AA would never buy another Airbus after AA587, only for it to bounce back with the largest unit purchase from Airbus of any airline in history.