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LCDFlight
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:10 am

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
As much as anything, all of this feels like a strategic shot fired at DL. All three were markets were being emphasized by DL prior to the pandemic, even though "DL focus city" had yet to mean anything at AUS and BNA. WN is obviously a target here as well, but it just feels like this is meant for DL as much as anyone.

This will be fun to watch.


Good point. DL may have said that, but I think AA still has more traditional stronghold in AUS (AA is undeniably more of a Texas airline), and BNA (former AA hub) than DL, right? That leaves RDU, which is more of a DL stronghold, despite AA running RDU-LHR on 777 for many years.

Anyway, it is not so simple to say which airline moved first.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:40 am

Midwestindy wrote:
"Certainly in those three cities, and a handful of others out there, there's real opportunity to go and profitably expand"


In case anybody's wondering, CLE, CMH, CVG, IND and MEM were explicitly mentioned in another story as at least a few of the "handful".
 
onwFan
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:06 am

LCDFlight wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
As much as anything, all of this feels like a strategic shot fired at DL. All three were markets were being emphasized by DL prior to the pandemic, even though "DL focus city" had yet to mean anything at AUS and BNA. WN is obviously a target here as well, but it just feels like this is meant for DL as much as anyone.

This will be fun to watch.


Good point. DL may have said that, but I think AA still has more traditional stronghold in AUS (AA is undeniably more of a Texas airline), and BNA (former AA hub) than DL, right? That leaves RDU, which is more of a DL stronghold, despite AA running RDU-LHR on 777 for many years.

Anyway, it is not so simple to say which airline moved first.

RDU was also an AA hub, and similar to BNA has a huge FF base there.
 
USAirALB
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:21 am

LCDFlight wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
As much as anything, all of this feels like a strategic shot fired at DL. All three were markets were being emphasized by DL prior to the pandemic, even though "DL focus city" had yet to mean anything at AUS and BNA. WN is obviously a target here as well, but it just feels like this is meant for DL as much as anyone.

This will be fun to watch.


Good point. DL may have said that, but I think AA still has more traditional stronghold in AUS (AA is undeniably more of a Texas airline), and BNA (former AA hub) than DL, right? That leaves RDU, which is more of a DL stronghold, despite AA running RDU-LHR on 777 for many years.

Anyway, it is not so simple to say which airline moved first.

I would argue that RDU is just as much of an AA stronghold as DL, if not perhaps more.

Keep in mind AA has a huge number of FFs in the Triangle due to their former hub there. Even after the hub closed, AA operated a number of P2P RJ routes (BDL/DCA/JAX/SDF/EWR/BOS/STL/AUS/CMH/MCI) up until 2008.

US also had a large amount of FFs in the region due to their historic presence in the Carolinas, and historically had robust service to all of their hubs. Even today AA has 9 departures on CLT-RDU alone, with multiple A321/738 frequencies.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:55 am

Runway765 wrote:
But AA has CLT/ORD/DFW close by. That’s greater than ATL IMO, especially on the international front.

How, exactly?

What "international" are you going to get from there via DFW/ORD and especially CLT, that couldn't be matched by ATL/DTW?
 
Detroit313
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:49 am

AA has received 41 MAX so far and almost 35 321NEO with more being delivered this year.

Retiring some old 737s is not going to affect growth.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:35 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
But AA has CLT/ORD/DFW close by. That’s greater than ATL IMO, especially on the international front.

How, exactly?

What "international" are you going to get from there via DFW/ORD and especially CLT, that couldn't be matched by ATL/DTW?


The reasonable thing to do in this conversation is probably to add MIA and DTW to the conversation. If we do that, AA's advantages are secondary Mexico, secondary Caribbean, and secondary South America. DL has partners in couple of those places, and we aren't talking about many - and perhaps not any - destinations that have appreciable demand from BNA. I'd guess that the largest market ex-BNA with service from an AA hub but not a DL hub is BJX (decently large auto industry presence both places) but it's probably not even 10 PDEW.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:36 pm

I believe I saw an article BNA was top 10 in residents who are AAdvantage members.
 
clrd4t8koff
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:52 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy


While the 757, 767, A330 and E190's are permanently retired, I'd assume all the 737-800's will be reactivated soon. Didn't AA recently announce their whole fleet will be flying again by the end of May?


In the back of my mind I keep thinking that AA was a bit premature in retiring their 757s.


Love the 757. Sad to see those retired from AA last year. Had hopes they might change their mind on that.

How old were the 757’s retired?
 
Wacko55
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:30 pm

AUS is gated constrained. Whatever future expansion AA plans will be limited so I wouldn't expect much more than has already been announced.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:50 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Runway765 wrote:
But AA has CLT/ORD/DFW close by. That’s greater than ATL IMO, especially on the international front.

How, exactly?

What "international" are you going to get from there via DFW/ORD and especially CLT, that couldn't be matched by ATL/DTW?


I mean that whole argument isn't going anywhere. Both AA and DL are "very strong in the East or Midwest." Plus AA has PHL and MIA and DCA, and DL has plenty of operations in NY, BOS. They are both giant beasts. Neither one is outgunned by the other.
 
Boof02671
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:17 pm

SESGDL wrote:
clrd4t8koff wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

Jeremy


While the 757, 767, A330 and E190's are permanently retired, I'd assume all the 737-800's will be reactivated soon. Didn't AA recently announce their whole fleet will be flying again by the end of May?


Not to my knowledge. I had read that nearly 70 737-800s are being removed from the fleet. Perhaps that has changed.

Jeremy

They aren’t removing 70 737-800s from the fleet and all stored planes are back at AA maintenance bases. 150 planes were retired and they still have 90% of the seats available pre-pandemics.
 
reednavy
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:18 pm

jplatts wrote:
runner13 wrote:
Think about the future employees that will be working for Amazon, Facebook, and Oracle in Nashville. All of these jobs will be six figures plus and those people will want to fly. I imagine AA is wanting to get those flyers that will be wanting to fly first class as well as corporate accounts. Just my opinion though


AS already serves SEA nonstop from BNA, and AS can target the FF base that AA has in the BNA market with its existing BNA-SEA nonstop flight. AS adding BNA-SJC/SFO nonstop service might also be a possibility with AS still serving some non-AA hub destinations nonstop from both SJC and SFO and with the significant presence that Amazon, Facebook, and Oracle have in Silicon Valley.

In addition to AS adding BNA-SJC/SFO nonstop service, AS adding BNA-PDX nonstop service is also a possibility with PDX being one of the top destinations without nonstop service from BNA.

AS also already offers first class service on its BNA-SEA nonstop flights, and AS would also do so on BNA-PDX/SFO/SJC if AS adds BNA-PDX/SFO/SJC nonstop service.

While B6 already serves BNA nonstop from BOS, AA adding BNA-BOS nonstop service is a possibility as AA can offer first class service whereas B6 doesn't currently offer its Mint cabin on the BNA-BOS route and WN doesn't offer first class service on any of its flights.

AS previously had BNA-SFO service it inherited from the Virgin America merger but then dropped it not even a year and some change later, if that long. They could potentially add them back if competition with UA makes sense to them. I'd probably bet on seeing them add PDX before resuming SFO service. Hell, I'd be more surprised if they added SFO back before a random like SAN.
 
freakyrat
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:05 pm

This thing about BNA is interesting. About a month ago SBN put out a cleverly disguised feeler on their facebook page which was actually guageing interest in a flight to BNA. The question is: Who approached them to do it? I'm sure the airport wouldn't just put this out on their own. Was it G4? Or was it actually AA/American Eagle?
 
freakyrat
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:23 pm

Pre Pandemic AUS was the #3 Business market for AA out of SBN/FWA connecting those passengers thru DFW. If and when traffic returns to Normal would AA consider a daily American Eagle AUS Nonstop R/T out of either airport for this if traffic rebounds to a point where the DFW flights could not handle it?
 
usflyer msp
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:11 pm

jplatts wrote:
runner13 wrote:
Think about the future employees that will be working for Amazon, Facebook, and Oracle in Nashville. All of these jobs will be six figures plus and those people will want to fly. I imagine AA is wanting to get those flyers that will be wanting to fly first class as well as corporate accounts. Just my opinion though


AS already serves SEA nonstop from BNA, and AS can target the FF base that AA has in the BNA market with its existing BNA-SEA nonstop flight. AS adding BNA-SJC/SFO nonstop service might also be a possibility with AS still serving some non-AA hub destinations nonstop from both SJC and SFO and with the significant presence that Amazon, Facebook, and Oracle have in Silicon Valley.

In addition to AS adding BNA-SJC/SFO nonstop service, AS adding BNA-PDX nonstop service is also a possibility with PDX being one of the top destinations without nonstop service from BNA.

AS also already offers first class service on its BNA-SEA nonstop flights, and AS would also do so on BNA-PDX/SFO/SJC if AS adds BNA-PDX/SFO/SJC nonstop service.

While B6 already serves BNA nonstop from BOS, AA adding BNA-BOS nonstop service is a possibility as AA can offer first class service whereas B6 doesn't currently offer its Mint cabin on the BNA-BOS route and WN doesn't offer first class service on any of its flights.


AS dropped SFO-BNA not that long ago.
 
alasizon
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:43 pm

freakyrat wrote:
This thing about BNA is interesting. About a month ago SBN put out a cleverly disguised feeler on their facebook page which was actually guageing interest in a flight to BNA. The question is: Who approached them to do it? I'm sure the airport wouldn't just put this out on their own. Was it G4? Or was it actually AA/American Eagle?


freakyrat wrote:
Pre Pandemic AUS was the #3 Business market for AA out of SBN/FWA connecting those passengers thru DFW. If and when traffic returns to Normal would AA consider a daily American Eagle AUS Nonstop R/T out of either airport for this if traffic rebounds to a point where the DFW flights could not handle it?


No offense, but the market doesn't focus on SBN, it simply isn't a big enough or key market to be a big factor. Small airports do stuff like that all the time in the interest of market development and so they have data to plead their case with airlines for additional service. There is a market development manager or equivalent title at every small airport who has the job of drumming up interest for new unserved routes and pitching to the airlines to add it.. Adds in BNA, AUS and RDU are going to be focused on medium sized cities or cities with above average yield and high O&D numbers where a large percentage of existing AAdvantage members already fly.

There is near zero percent chance of SBN-BNA on AA and SBN-AUS wastes valuable AUS resources (gate space) and would be pretty far down on the list for adds, there are a lot more strategic and valuable adds for AUS way before SBN.

SBN is a whopping 5-9 passengers per day each way to AUS and BNA - that demand would never support a direct flight.
 
freakyrat
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:38 pm

alasizon wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
This thing about BNA is interesting. About a month ago SBN put out a cleverly disguised feeler on their facebook page which was actually guageing interest in a flight to BNA. The question is: Who approached them to do it? I'm sure the airport wouldn't just put this out on their own. Was it G4? Or was it actually AA/American Eagle?


freakyrat wrote:
Pre Pandemic AUS was the #3 Business market for AA out of SBN/FWA connecting those passengers thru DFW. If and when traffic returns to Normal would AA consider a daily American Eagle AUS Nonstop R/T out of either airport for this if traffic rebounds to a point where the DFW flights could not handle it?


No offense, but the market doesn't focus on SBN, it simply isn't a big enough or key market to be a big factor. Small airports do stuff like that all the time in the interest of market development and so they have data to plead their case with airlines for additional service. There is a market development manager or equivalent title at every small airport who has the job of drumming up interest for new unserved routes and pitching to the airlines to add it.. Adds in BNA, AUS and RDU are going to be focused on medium sized cities or cities with above average yield and high O&D numbers where a large percentage of existing AAdvantage members already fly.

There is near zero percent chance of SBN-BNA on AA and SBN-AUS wastes valuable AUS resources (gate space) and would be pretty far down on the list for adds, there are a lot more strategic and valuable adds for AUS way before SBN.

SBN is a whopping 5-9 passengers per day each way to AUS and BNA - that demand would never support a direct flight.


Most of the AUS passengers boarding out of SBN/FWA are for a local prosthetics firm and are adequately served by the morning DFW flights out of both airports. In reference to BNA. SBN however did have daily service to BNA when AA had a hub there.

I kind of think some of the BNA feelers were done at the request of G4 for something seasonal however Seasonal G4 MYR flights are more requested and are more of a priority for both SBN and MYR over any flights from SBN-BNA

As a general topic of expanding AUS flights, there just simply isn't enough terminal room for everything the carriers want to throw at AUS.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:14 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
The reasonable thing to do in this conversation is probably to add MIA and DTW to the conversation. If we do that, AA's advantages are secondary Mexico

Though for clarity, adding MIA doesn't grant them secondary Mexico at all, DFW (already mentioned) does though.

In fact, I'm not even sure they serve more than three Mexican destinations yearround from Miami.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:19 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The reasonable thing to do in this conversation is probably to add MIA and DTW to the conversation. If we do that, AA's advantages are secondary Mexico

Though for clarity, adding MIA doesn't grant them secondary Mexico at all, DFW (already mentioned) does though.

In fact, I'm not even sure they serve more than three Mexican destinations yearround from Miami.


You’re right. But I think overall MIA has more unique international destinations (and given that a lot of the DFW-Mexico stuff is Eagle it certainly has more seats to unique international destinations, though it’s a still a drop in the bucket of BNA’s international demand).
 
MAH4546
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:56 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The reasonable thing to do in this conversation is probably to add MIA and DTW to the conversation. If we do that, AA's advantages are secondary Mexico

Though for clarity, adding MIA doesn't grant them secondary Mexico at all, DFW (already mentioned) does though.

In fact, I'm not even sure they serve more than three Mexican destinations yearround from Miami.


Five: MEX, MTY, CUN, MID and CZM.
 
PSA727
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sun Apr 25, 2021 5:19 am

SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

I think you're looking at the wrong fleet. Look at the fleet at American Eagle. I think most of these new adds will be on E175s. And which can fly to basically any mainland U.S. destination from both AUS and BNA. But if aircraft had to be pulled from another hub, my guess would be PHL. As it is now becoming less pivotal to the network with B6 providing additional domestic feed for AA intl flights out of JFK, and AA's new 14-gate terminal that just opened up at DCA which provides much better domestic connections than did the basement gate 35X and the remote gate stands. But even still, PHL didn't have much mainline flying compared to the other hubs. It is a lot of 50-seater flights.
 
dfwfanboy
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:23 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The reasonable thing to do in this conversation is probably to add MIA and DTW to the conversation. If we do that, AA's advantages are secondary Mexico

Though for clarity, adding MIA doesn't grant them secondary Mexico at all, DFW (already mentioned) does though.

In fact, I'm not even sure they serve more than three Mexican destinations yearround from Miami.


You’re right. But I think overall MIA has more unique international destinations (and given that a lot of the DFW-Mexico stuff is Eagle it certainly has more seats to unique international destinations, though it’s a still a drop in the bucket of BNA’s international demand).


Very minor add, but when comparing AA vs DL one stop international options out of BNA for as it relates to preferred carriers, it seems remiss to ignore LHR since it is an obvious AA advantage to many international destinations vs CLT, MIA, ATL, DTW, DFW, or JFK that can largely do the same thing against one another absent the unique advantages mentioned above. That advantage would evaporate in an instant with a BNA-AMS/cdg flight but that doesn't exist at the moment.

BNA-LHR resumes in July as of now. Clearly, there's currently very little demand for the kind of international connections LHR provides but at some point in the future it will matter again.
 
usairways85
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:21 pm

PSA727 wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
Given how much AA has reduced its fleet (70 737-800s, all 757s, all 767s, all A330s, all E190s), what will be at the expense of all this planned "growth?" Chicago? Philadelphia? Washington? Los Angeles? Apart from PHL, AA has hubs in some pretty competitive markets. We keep hearing about all this growth at spokes (BOS, JFK, AUS, BNA, RDU), but AA really doesn't have much room to grow without letting up at its hubs, and clearly DFW and CLT are priority for AA on the domestic front. Something will have to give, or this talk of growing at BNA, RDU and AUS will really just be small, incremental growth at target markets where there's a gap to fill.

I think you're looking at the wrong fleet. Look at the fleet at American Eagle. I think most of these new adds will be on E175s. And which can fly to basically any mainland U.S. destination from both AUS and BNA. But if aircraft had to be pulled from another hub, my guess would be PHL. As it is now becoming less pivotal to the network with B6 providing additional domestic feed for AA intl flights out of JFK, and AA's new 14-gate terminal that just opened up at DCA which provides much better domestic connections than did the basement gate 35X and the remote gate stands. But even still, PHL didn't have much mainline flying compared to the other hubs. It is a lot of 50-seater flights.

The notion that PHL is a massive hub for 175's may be a little off. Back in 2019, the 175's were beginning to disperse across the network as CR7's and CR9's entered PHL. Obviously things have changed so I do not know what the 175, CR7, & CR9 breakdown looks like now. Currently AA has 175's on IAH, AUS, MSY, MSP, PBI, RSW...I imagine these won't go to a 50 seater so there are only so many 175's AA can pull.

S19
CLT
46.1% - mainline
3.0% - E175
40% - E175/CR7/CR9
ORD
40.1% - mainline
12.1% - E175
35% - E175/CR7/CR9
PHL
42.4% - mainline
14.4% - E175
23% - E175/CR7/CR9
MIA
75.4% mainline
12.5% E175
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:36 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The reasonable thing to do in this conversation is probably to add MIA and DTW to the conversation. If we do that, AA's advantages are secondary Mexico

Though for clarity, adding MIA doesn't grant them secondary Mexico at all, DFW (already mentioned) does though.

In fact, I'm not even sure they serve more than three Mexican destinations yearround from Miami.


From Miami, AA flies to Mexico City, Cancun, Cozumel. Merida, and Monterrey. Not sure what is year-round vs. seasonal. Some of it is Eagle, and some of it I believe has been cut/suspended since the pandemic.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:28 pm

Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.

USAirALB wrote:
I would argue that RDU is just as much of an AA stronghold as DL, if not perhaps more.

Keep in mind AA has a huge number of FFs in the Triangle due to their former hub there. Even after the hub closed, AA operated a number of P2P RJ routes (BDL/DCA/JAX/SDF/EWR/BOS/STL/AUS/CMH/MCI) up until 2008.

US also had a large amount of FFs in the region due to their historic presence in the Carolinas, and historically had robust service to all of their hubs. Even today AA has 9 departures on CLT-RDU alone, with multiple A321/738 frequencies.


The reality is FFers don't just sit around and wait over a decade for service to return. They status match to other airlines and move on.

How do I know this? Because it's exactly what I did and countless other FFers do regularly. Sure AA probably has a ton of low/no activity FF accounts left in former hubs (as all carriers do). However, in no way does that equate to people running right back if they add a few flights. If anything, they'll just enjoy the lower fare pressure and/or competitive promos on their (now) preferred airline.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:48 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.

USAirALB wrote:
I would argue that RDU is just as much of an AA stronghold as DL, if not perhaps more.

Keep in mind AA has a huge number of FFs in the Triangle due to their former hub there. Even after the hub closed, AA operated a number of P2P RJ routes (BDL/DCA/JAX/SDF/EWR/BOS/STL/AUS/CMH/MCI) up until 2008.

US also had a large amount of FFs in the region due to their historic presence in the Carolinas, and historically had robust service to all of their hubs. Even today AA has 9 departures on CLT-RDU alone, with multiple A321/738 frequencies.


The reality is FFers don't just sit around and wait over a decade for service to return. They status match to other airlines and move on.

How do I know this? Because it's exactly what I did and countless other FFers do regularly. Sure AA probably has a ton of low/no activity FF accounts left in former hubs (as all carriers do). However, in no way does that equate to people running right back if they add a few flights. If anything, they'll just enjoy the lower fare pressure and/or competitive promos on their (now) preferred airline.


The Apple announcement pretty much ensures further RDU-Bay Area services, notably from AA, AS, DL, UA, and B6.
 
sfojvjets
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:06 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.

USAirALB wrote:
I would argue that RDU is just as much of an AA stronghold as DL, if not perhaps more.

Keep in mind AA has a huge number of FFs in the Triangle due to their former hub there. Even after the hub closed, AA operated a number of P2P RJ routes (BDL/DCA/JAX/SDF/EWR/BOS/STL/AUS/CMH/MCI) up until 2008.

US also had a large amount of FFs in the region due to their historic presence in the Carolinas, and historically had robust service to all of their hubs. Even today AA has 9 departures on CLT-RDU alone, with multiple A321/738 frequencies.


The reality is FFers don't just sit around and wait over a decade for service to return. They status match to other airlines and move on.

How do I know this? Because it's exactly what I did and countless other FFers do regularly. Sure AA probably has a ton of low/no activity FF accounts left in former hubs (as all carriers do). However, in no way does that equate to people running right back if they add a few flights. If anything, they'll just enjoy the lower fare pressure and/or competitive promos on their (now) preferred airline.


The Apple announcement pretty much ensures further RDU-Bay Area services, notably from AA, AS, DL, UA, and B6.

Is B6 even relevant at RDU though? I thought their buildup is still mostly planned and hasn't been realized yet. Either way I'm pretty sure they've chopped RDU-SFO for the entire summer so...

As for AS, the entire Bay Area market is an uphill battle for them. I'd highly doubt them adding another business-oriented market when UA squashes them like a bug on quite literally their entire SFO network, and WN does the same with their SJC network.

I guess we'll see about AA adding anything - I'm not super aware with the geography of aviation in North Carolina but doesn't AA already have CLT (relatively) close by? I know we get multiple dailies, even right now. Is there a need for AA to divest resources that could be going to CLT and instead earmark them for RDU?

And then of course the most logical expansion would be for UA to resume SFO-RDU (currently slated for June I think) and DL to add RDU-SFO.
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4716
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:40 pm

sfojvjets wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.



The reality is FFers don't just sit around and wait over a decade for service to return. They status match to other airlines and move on.

How do I know this? Because it's exactly what I did and countless other FFers do regularly. Sure AA probably has a ton of low/no activity FF accounts left in former hubs (as all carriers do). However, in no way does that equate to people running right back if they add a few flights. If anything, they'll just enjoy the lower fare pressure and/or competitive promos on their (now) preferred airline.


The Apple announcement pretty much ensures further RDU-Bay Area services, notably from AA, AS, DL, UA, and B6.

Is B6 even relevant at RDU though? I thought their buildup is still mostly planned and hasn't been realized yet. Either way I'm pretty sure they've chopped RDU-SFO for the entire summer so...

As for AS, the entire Bay Area market is an uphill battle for them. I'd highly doubt them adding another business-oriented market when UA squashes them like a bug on quite literally their entire SFO network, and WN does the same with their SJC network.

I guess we'll see about AA adding anything - I'm not super aware with the geography of aviation in North Carolina but doesn't AA already have CLT (relatively) close by? I know we get multiple dailies, even right now. Is there a need for AA to divest resources that could be going to CLT and instead earmark them for RDU?

And then of course the most logical expansion would be for UA to resume SFO-RDU (currently slated for June I think) and DL to add RDU-SFO.


B6 has signaled it has eyes on RDU and it would not surprise if they build out more there, and potentially align with AA, which has a decent footprint there. I can see B6 add RDU-SFO, UA will restart, and AS will add as well. AA has retained a presence at RDU to varying degree since it de-hubbed it. Traffic AA carries ex-RDU isn't really competing with CLT, and more focused on catering to the Triangle business traffic it serves (hence the LHR route, which has some guarantees on it, or did at one point). It would not surprise to see DL add SFO-RDU.
 
Wacko55
Posts: 144
Joined: Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:59 pm

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Mon Apr 26, 2021 6:23 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.

USAirALB wrote:
I would argue that RDU is just as much of an AA stronghold as DL, if not perhaps more.

Keep in mind AA has a huge number of FFs in the Triangle due to their former hub there. Even after the hub closed, AA operated a number of P2P RJ routes (BDL/DCA/JAX/SDF/EWR/BOS/STL/AUS/CMH/MCI) up until 2008.

US also had a large amount of FFs in the region due to their historic presence in the Carolinas, and historically had robust service to all of their hubs. Even today AA has 9 departures on CLT-RDU alone, with multiple A321/738 frequencies.


The reality is FFers don't just sit around and wait over a decade for service to return. They status match to other airlines and move on.

How do I know this? Because it's exactly what I did and countless other FFers do regularly. Sure AA probably has a ton of low/no activity FF accounts left in former hubs (as all carriers do). However, in no way does that equate to people running right back if they add a few flights. If anything, they'll just enjoy the lower fare pressure and/or competitive promos on their (now) preferred airline.


Should increase traffic between AUS and RDU since Austin is home to Apple's largest campus outside of Cupertino and it to is currently undergoing a billion dollar expansion. Also there is a rumor that Amazon just closed a deal on a 184 acre site in the metro that was on the short list for HQ2.
Amazon already has a large presence in Austin but if this rumor is true than we more than likely should see an uptick in demand between AUS and BNA.
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 224
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:41 am

RDUDDJI wrote:
Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.


Apple's preferred is UA from SFO. So we should see UA sticking to bringing back SFO-RDU once daily this summer.

I doubt we will see a RDU-SJC nonstop anytime soon because the reality is that all FF's are based out of SFO. SJC is dominated by WN at around 50-60%, and after that, AS with maybe 20%. There is very little FSC presence there. DL was going to fill that void but evidently that has dropped through. It says a lot that AS couldn't make SJC-EWR work and that DL couldn't keep SJC-JFK... and now B6 is the only carrier left serving SJC to the East Coast (BOS & JFK). There is also a reason that B6 only uses 320s and non-mint 321s into SJC.

Of course, maybe SJC does snag RDU... but on WN, LOL. We've also seen AA handing over some SJC flying to AS. We may see AS start SJC-RDU but my best guess is that their priority is making SFO a relevant operation first. And they couldn't make New York work from SJC so that says a lot about SJC's situation. I guess time will tell what happens.
 
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Midwestindy
Topic Author
Posts: 6288
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Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:49 am

sfojvjets wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.


Apple's preferred is UA from SFO. So we should see UA sticking to bringing back SFO-RDU once daily this summer.

I doubt we will see a RDU-SJC nonstop anytime soon because the reality is that all FF's are based out of SFO. SJC is dominated by WN at around 50-60%, and after that, AS with maybe 20%. There is very little FSC presence there. DL was going to fill that void but evidently that has dropped through. It says a lot that AS couldn't make SJC-EWR work and that DL couldn't keep SJC-JFK... and now B6 is the only carrier left serving SJC to the East Coast (BOS & JFK). There is also a reason that B6 only uses 320s and non-mint 321s into SJC.

Of course, maybe SJC does snag RDU... but on WN, LOL. We've also seen AA handing over some SJC flying to AS. We may see AS start SJC-RDU but my best guess is that their priority is making SFO a relevant operation first. And they couldn't make New York work from SJC so that says a lot about SJC's situation. I guess time will tell what happens.


WN ran RDU-SJC in the past, although it was 1x weekly I believe

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/new ... m-luv.html
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
Posts: 1547
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2008 1:31 am

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:05 am

WN has been so sleepy at RDU for so long it's hard to see them doing anything like SFO/SJC-RDU.
 
Wneast
Posts: 1002
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:37 pm

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:07 am

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
WN has been so sleepy at RDU for so long it's hard to see them doing anything like SFO/SJC-RDU.

WN seem that there going all out on AA at MIA adding at least five new cites in there Schedule updating if not more coming
 
tphuang
Posts: 6637
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:20 am

sfojvjets wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
Apple just today announced a $1 Billion investment with 3,000 jobs in the RDU area. Personally, I'm really hoping this helps get RDU-SJC service back on some airline. I don't know if Apple has a preferred airline.


Apple's preferred is UA from SFO. So we should see UA sticking to bringing back SFO-RDU once daily this summer.

I doubt we will see a RDU-SJC nonstop anytime soon because the reality is that all FF's are based out of SFO. SJC is dominated by WN at around 50-60%, and after that, AS with maybe 20%. There is very little FSC presence there. DL was going to fill that void but evidently that has dropped through. It says a lot that AS couldn't make SJC-EWR work and that DL couldn't keep SJC-JFK... and now B6 is the only carrier left serving SJC to the East Coast (BOS & JFK). There is also a reason that B6 only uses 320s and non-mint 321s into SJC.

Of course, maybe SJC does snag RDU... but on WN, LOL. We've also seen AA handing over some SJC flying to AS. We may see AS start SJC-RDU but my best guess is that their priority is making SFO a relevant operation first. And they couldn't make New York work from SJC so that says a lot about SJC's situation. I guess time will tell what happens.


It actually continues to surprise me how low yielding SJC is compared to SFO. You'd think some people from Silicon Valley would find SJC transcon flights more convenient.

WN is not going to try SJC-RDU on daily basis. It doesn't fit their current model. I can't see AS trying it either. If AS wants to do something, it should try RDU-SFO again. But given that they have cut California transcon to bare bones, this would be wishful thinking.
 
sfojvjets
Posts: 224
Joined: Sun Dec 06, 2020 6:00 am

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:56 am

tphuang wrote:
It actually continues to surprise me how low yielding SJC is compared to SFO. You'd think some people from Silicon Valley would find SJC transcon flights more convenient.


The situation in the bay area is quite interesting actually. Yields are all directly related to the cost of real estate in the vicinity that each airport serves (which makes sense). The peninsula+sf has the highest housing costs, while the south and east bay have the lowest - and the population is starting to gravitate towards those areas. So while San Jose has a large catchment area that is quickly expanding relative to other Bay Area airports and especially to SFO, it is low-yielding because it's the population center for your regular Bay Area person. Meanwhile SFO serves the international audience and the techies - and it's the only facility that has the infrastructure and space to support proper lounges, connectivity, etc.

However, there are many luxury developments going up both in the heart of San Jose as well as in the hills both east and west of the city. These will likely lead people with higher disposable income to use SJC more, but it makes life a whole lot harder to use SJC when you are trying to book a flight to Europe, Asia, or even the east coast - especially if you are a FF or have any kind of loyalty whether it's to OW/*A/Skyteam. Plus of course there is the immense prestige factor that many people are going after by living in peninsula zip codes.

A little history lesson on the present and future of the bay area, LOL.
 
PSA727
Posts: 921
Joined: Mon Feb 06, 2006 7:49 am

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:22 am

usairways85 wrote:
The notion that PHL is a massive hub for 175's may be a little off. Back in 2019, the 175's were beginning to disperse across the network as CR7's and CR9's entered PHL. Obviously things have changed so I do not know what the 175, CR7, & CR9 breakdown looks like now. Currently AA has 175's on IAH, AUS, MSY, MSP, PBI, RSW...I imagine these won't go to a 50 seater so there are only so many 175's AA can pull.

I wasn't implying that PHL was a massive hub for E175s. In fact, I said that PHL is a lot of 50-seater flights. I was referring to the comment about mainline aircraft being pulled from somehwere. But my point was that these new flights out of AUS/BNA/RDU would not be on mainline aircraft to begin with. But most likely on E175s, of which there are sevreral yet to be delivered to Eagle.
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26665
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:30 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
The reasonable thing to do in this conversation is probably to add MIA and DTW to the conversation. If we do that, AA's advantages are secondary Mexico

Though for clarity, adding MIA doesn't grant them secondary Mexico at all, DFW (already mentioned) does though.

In fact, I'm not even sure they serve more than three Mexican destinations yearround from Miami.


From Miami, AA flies to Mexico City, Cancun, Cozumel. Merida, and Monterrey. Not sure what is year-round vs. seasonal. Some of it is Eagle, and some of it I believe has been cut/suspended since the pandemic.


All are year-round and all are currently operating. Mainline to MEX/CUN/CZM and 175s to MTY/MID.
 
n9801f
Posts: 428
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:56 pm

PSA727 wrote:
I think you're looking at the wrong fleet. Look at the fleet at American Eagle. I think most of these new adds will be on E175s. And which can fly to basically any mainland U.S. destination from both AUS and BNA.

Agreed.

Recent announcements and fleet moves suggest a focus on upgauging at Delta. But a downside to reduced fleet diversity is you have less agility to enter new markets (e-jet size is ideal, especially with their range) or play the frequency game in lower volume but competitive business markets.

American seems to understand this better and has a larger fleet of E-jets.
 
alasizon
Posts: 3054
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:59 pm

n9801f wrote:
PSA727 wrote:
I think you're looking at the wrong fleet. Look at the fleet at American Eagle. I think most of these new adds will be on E175s. And which can fly to basically any mainland U.S. destination from both AUS and BNA.

Agreed.

Recent announcements and fleet moves suggest a focus on upgauging at Delta. But a downside to reduced fleet diversity is you have less agility to enter new markets (e-jet size is ideal, especially with their range) or play the frequency game in lower volume but competitive business markets.

American seems to understand this better and has a larger fleet of E-jets.


AA just has a more favorable scope clause, it isn't that DL doesn't understand that. Rather AA just has in my opinion the golden standard for scope clauses when it comes to flexibility.
 
n9801f
Posts: 428
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: American eyeing AUS, BNA, & RDU for expansion

Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:19 pm

alasizon wrote:
AA just has a more favorable scope clause, it isn't that DL doesn't understand that. Rather AA just has in my opinion the golden standard for scope clauses when it comes to flexibility.

This is no accident. You only get what you negotiate.

American operates in many extremely competitive markets where it has to be super sharp. It knew it had to negotiate this.

Delta's main domestic hubs are less competitive. A plus is that it can be easier to be profitable here. A minus is you could become desensitized to the need to be competitive.

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