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FLALEFTY
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Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:54 pm

I found this article about the airline recoveries from the pandemic by Flight Aware to be interesting.

https://blog.flightaware.com/visualizin ... n-industry

Key takeaways are:

- Commercial passenger airlines have leveled off at a modest ≈50% recovery of traffic levels in late 2020 and early 2021 relative to 2019. However, that recovery profile is very diverse geographically, with some very slow, some double dips, as well as some very strong regions.

- Other operation types outside of commercial airlines, including both business aviation and cargo, have seen a more substantial recovery and even growth throughout the pandemic.

- There have been different recovery profiles for flights above and below four hours. Flights under four hours have recovered a bit more strongly, whereas flights over four hours, and long haul flights, have had a weaker recovery due to immigration and border restrictions.

- There have been multiple changes to the mix of aircraft size impacting airport planning for how many widebody gates and narrowbody gates they have available.

Thoughts?
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:45 pm

Thanks for sharing, very cool data.
@DadCelo
 
Sooner787
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:21 pm

I think the only way we'll close the gap to 2019 numbers are for
corporate travelers to return to the skies in large numbers
and for cruising to resume in the US market.
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Fri Apr 23, 2021 5:31 pm

Pretty to see China almost fully rebounded in 2021.
 
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ojjunior
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:35 pm

2eng2efficient wrote:
Pretty to see China almost fully rebounded in 2021.

Try to keep 1.4 billion people at home...
 
UALFAson
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:43 pm

Interesting visualization of data--thanks for posting.

The 4-hour mark isn't that surprising. Here in the U.S., there aren't that many flights that meet that threshold without being transcons, and both NYC and California were on serious lockdowns with high case counts for most of the pandemic. Same in Europe: 4 hours is basically one side of the continent to the other, and, again, with U.K. having high case counts and lockdowns, I'm not sure how many flights meet that threshold anyway. This reaffirms what we sort of already knew, that most of what operated were either short-haul passenger flights or long-haul cargo flights.

It's mostly a moot point now, but it would have been interesting to know what people's comfort levels were in terms of distance/time during the pandemic and whether that is still in play. For example, I have no problem at this point wearing a mask on a flight for 1-2 hours (though I didn't fly for a full year before I got vaccinated). I'd probably wear one for 3-4 hours if I were taking a vacation to the Caribbean or the like. I'm not sure I want to wear one for 8-10 hours to someplace like Greece or Croatia from the U.S. even if/when those flights resume.
"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:30 pm

NBAA is predicting a strong year for operations and sales of business aircraft. Lots of optimism in the industry.
 
OKCDCA
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:00 am

ojjunior wrote:
2eng2efficient wrote:
Pretty to see China almost fully rebounded in 2021.

Try to keep 1.4 billion people at home...

More like keep planes flying and act like we didn’t cause this whole debacle...
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:18 am

ojjunior wrote:
2eng2efficient wrote:
Pretty to see China almost fully rebounded in 2021.

Try to keep 1.4 billion people at home...


Theyre a dictatorship so its not as hard to imagine.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
ltbewr
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Sat Apr 24, 2021 1:44 pm

I think the 'crystal ball' as to predicting the future short and long term as to commercial air travel is 'very hazy'. I would suggest that as only a small fraction of the world's population outside of Europe, USA have been vaccinated, international travel to/from Asia, Africa, Central and South America will be heavily restricted, it will limit recovery well into 2022 for long haul travel. You also have permanent losses of airlines, contraction of many to fewer, smaller aircraft, a need to recover losses meaning much higher average fares, less overall leisure and business travel after a 'catch up' phase, economic 'waves', that will limit recovery to 2019 levels.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:04 pm

UALFAson wrote:
Interesting visualization of data--thanks for posting.

The 4-hour mark isn't that surprising. Here in the U.S., there aren't that many flights that meet that threshold without being transcons, and both NYC and California were on serious lockdowns with high case counts for most of the pandemic. Same in Europe: 4 hours is basically one side of the continent to the other, and, again, with U.K. having high case counts and lockdowns, I'm not sure how many flights meet that threshold anyway. This reaffirms what we sort of already knew, that most of what operated were either short-haul passenger flights or long-haul cargo flights.


Yep. This makes that piece of the FlightAware article a fine example of the take-downs outlined in Proofiness by Charles Seife. A person (often politician or journalist) cites a number and people think it's fact, but it's often nonsense; a number that points to a worthless metric, or to something that can't be accurately/objectively measured. As you point out, the less than 4 hr / greater than 4 hr flight distance for U.S.-origin flights means (mostly), domestic vs. international. The problem with international flights wasn't that they were longer but that borders were substantially closed. (No, Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean flights less than 4 hrs do not make up a majority of international travel to the U.S. in a typical year.)

See: https://www.transportation.gov/sites/do ... 202019.pdf

Anybody who has had a good college course in stats & probability will get something out of Seife's book.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 372
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:09 pm

OKCDCA wrote:
ojjunior wrote:
2eng2efficient wrote:
Pretty to see China almost fully rebounded in 2021.

Try to keep 1.4 billion people at home...

More like keep planes flying and act like we didn’t cause this whole debacle...


Actually, a very large part of this 'debacle' was caused by the airline industry itself.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Flight Aware on the pandemic impact: "An Uneven Recovery"

Sun Apr 25, 2021 12:26 am

Sooner787 wrote:
I think the only way we'll close the gap to 2019 numbers are for
corporate travelers to return to the skies in large numbers
and for cruising to resume in the US market.

I agree with this, but it must also be the amusement parks, resorts, and places like Vegas at full capacity.

Cruise ships and conventions are a minimum.

Unfortunately, I do not see that happening in 2021 nor 2022.

Lightsaber
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