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ElroyJetson
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How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:50 pm

I picked up my cousin at MCO yesterday. He flew NK flight 841 from RIC to MCO. The aircraft was an A320. He said literally every seat was full. Packed. That got me to wondering how much traffic has picked up now that Covid vaccines have been widely disseminated in America.

As an aside, we have many Canadians down here and they are claiming there is a 100 day wait between first and second vaccine doses in Canada due to a lack of vaccine. I wonder if that is true in Canada as well as other Countries, because, if so, that would surely impact civil aviation.

Any information folks can provide on either topic would be appreciated.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:49 pm

New data are posted M-F.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

There's a long-running thread.
 
Tristar787
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:51 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I picked up my cousin at MCO yesterday. He flew NK flight 841 from RIC to MCO. The aircraft was an A320. He said literally every seat was full. Packed. That got me to wondering how much traffic has picked up now that Covid vaccines have been widely disseminated in America.

As an aside, we have many Canadians down here and they are claiming there is a 100 day wait between first and second vaccine doses in Canada due to a lack of vaccine. I wonder if that is true in Canada as well as other Countries, because, if so, that would surely impact civil aviation.

Any information folks can provide on either topic would be appreciated.


Here in England it’s approximately a 12 week wait between Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines. International travel is prohibited at the moment except under certain circumstances. Everyone is hoping that will change come 17 May when the Government is hoping to lift that restriction. The airlines (and everyone else) are waiting to find out which countries will have the ‘green light’ for travel at that point should that be the case. However, it appears that many countries will only accept fully vaccinated visitors. With a 12 week wait between doses, that could pose a problem for some.
 
Dominion301
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:41 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I picked up my cousin at MCO yesterday. He flew NK flight 841 from RIC to MCO. The aircraft was an A320. He said literally every seat was full. Packed. That got me to wondering how much traffic has picked up now that Covid vaccines have been widely disseminated in America.

As an aside, we have many Canadians down here and they are claiming there is a 100 day wait between first and second vaccine doses in Canada due to a lack of vaccine. I wonder if that is true in Canada as well as other Countries, because, if so, that would surely impact civil aviation.

Any information folks can provide on either topic would be appreciated.


Almost 1/3 of Canadians have had a first dose. However, with the 3rd wave, most of the country is still in lockdown. In Canada we are adopting a strategy of administering second doses to most at 3-4 months later as Health Canada have strong evidence pointing to better protection with the bigger gap and to get 70% effective first doses into as many people as possible as soon as possible.

Canadian air travel is still very low, but up like 200% over last April when things hit absolute rock bottom. Looking at the airline schedules, the number of domestic flights is increasing a fair bit in June and quite a bit more in July...but still way, way below 2019. Transborder and International are lagging domestic substantially. When you see Porter taking to the skies again, to me that’ll be the sign that the air travel recovery is turning the corner.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 3:24 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
New data are posted M-F.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

There's a long-running thread.



Thank you for the data, It is much appreciated.
 
keithvh2001
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 3:52 am

In the USA, we are now consistently above 1,000,000 TSA throughput every single day.

March 10 was the last day we were below 1,000,000 and I doubt we have any day below 1,000,000 anytime soon (Tuesdays are the low day of the week and even on Tuesdays we're now generally in the 1.06-1.15MM range).

However, we also have not had a single day at 1.6MM since this pandemic began. For the March 2019 to Feburary 2020 period, we only had ONE day that was below 1.6MM. That was Thanksgiving (November 2019), which is a day where the mornings are busy but afternoon and evening traffic is inherently very low.

Net: things are better. But there is still quite a ways to go in the USA.
 
Sokes
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 4:09 am

Enough to spread new mutations around the world in days.
 
ABpositive
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 5:20 am

In Australia the domestic travel has recovered to about 80% of pre-Covid levels in is in fact expected to exceed those levels this year. With movements open only within Australia and to New Zealand, the international tourism capacity has shifted to domestic travel.
 
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spinotter
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 6:52 am

Sokes wrote:
Enough to spread new mutations around the world in days.


Covid-19 is not going away. For those of us who have been vaccinated, there is much less risk. We have to start living a "normal" life sometime.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 7:28 am

Totally depends on the route.

Leisure routes are getting more demand by the day. Business and long haul international are not going to recover anytime soon.

Domestic leisure routes might hit highs this summer but everything else will be down alot. Buiness travel is dead in decent numbers till 2022 so sadly alot of tickets will be lower priced also and customers are more price sensative
 
Toinou
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 7:54 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
The US civil aviation market and society seems to be opening up much sooner than Canada and Western Europe because the US prepared better and are getting people both Covid shots when recommended. None of the vaccine manufactures are now saying the results are the same even if you wait months for the second dose. Only Governments are saying that who have failed their citizens. We all want businesses and aviation to fully function again. Government that have not adequately prepared and are not vaccinating their citizens as recommended are hurting everyone.

I won't enter in the debate about who failed (which IS politics).
Yes, the vaccination process is progressing differently in different countries. But I think you're missing another variable : a good part of US traffic is domestic, which is recovering quicker in every part of the world (despite some local movement limitations). While Canada has quite a lot of domestic traffic, which is still low, an important part of air transport involve crossing borders, which is severely limited at the moment. This is even more acute in Europe where most air transport in international (simply due to the size of countries. So, no matter the cause, the recovery of air transport has to be different.
 
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qf789
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 8:11 am

Please keep the topic aviation related. If you wish to discuss vaccinations or the science behind them take it to non-aviation. The same applies if you wish to make political comments, take that to non aviation as well
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 12:36 pm

Air traffic has rebounded in some places for sure, but we are a very long way from levels reaching their pre-pandemic highs. That may also never happen. Business travel in the form that existed pre-COVID is likely to not return to such levels for years. Travel to places like China, India, Latin America, and other hot spots will be impacted for a long time. The global response to COVID has been truly atrocious, with a lack of global coordination that is simply frightening. The developing world will bear the brunt of this for years to come. The world's richest nations, including the US, major European countries, and China had done essentially nothing to help the situation outside of their own borders. Shipping low amounts of vaccine doses does not quite cut it. As to air travel, it will remain leisure focused, thus cyclical for some time to come with modest corporate traffic increases on routes inside countries that have achieved a higher level of vaccination, where air travel is essential form of travel.
 
leader1
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 1:58 pm

Check out https://flightaware.com/ and look up each airport. At the bottom of the page is a graph compares current traffic (in terms of movements) to pre-COVID traffic. They also made a post from this data.

Based on what I’ve seen looking up different airports, the recovery has been uneven. In the US, it has varied based on region, with the Northeast doing the worst (down about 50%) and the Southeast doing the best (down about 25%). China looks like it has pretty much recovered domestically, but international movements are way down. The rest of Asia Pacific is way, way down. Europe is way down, too. Same with Latin America, but it doesn’t look as bad as Europe. And Canadian traffic is way, way down. Shocking to see an airport like YYZ, which handled 1,400 movements a day before the pandemic, down to about 200. Yikes!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 2:02 pm

Lots of data and running discussion on this long running thread here that is arguably worthy of pinning to the top of the page

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1447283&p=22765331#p22765331
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 2:08 pm

Hong Kong is getting less than 100 pax arriving through the airport on many days. That is total pax in a 24hr period! Things are not recovering here - not even close.
 
leader1
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 2:17 pm

[photoid][/photoid]
CX Flyboy wrote:
Hong Kong is getting less than 100 pax arriving through the airport on many days. That is total pax in a 24hr period! Things are not recovering here - not even close.


I saw the stats and movements are way, way down. Is HK open to traffic from the Mainland? I would have thought that might have helped pax numbers a bit.
 
bigb
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 2:52 pm

From what I’ve been seeing, In the US, domestic flights coming back and some regions are coming back stronger than others. But international traffic and movement is still very low. Business travelers aren’t as prevalent as they were pre pandemic.
 
avier
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 5:30 pm

CX Flyboy wrote:
Hong Kong is getting less than 100 pax arriving through the airport on many days. That is total pax in a 24hr period! Things are not recovering here - not even close.

That sounds ridiculously low. I thought I made a mistake reading it first and thought it as less than 100 pax flights arriving in a day.
I wonder how CX survives by that number.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sat May 01, 2021 6:27 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I picked up my cousin at MCO yesterday. He flew NK flight 841 from RIC to MCO. The aircraft was an A320. He said literally every seat was full. Packed. That got me to wondering how much traffic has picked up now that Covid vaccines have been widely disseminated in America.

As an aside, we have many Canadians down here and they are claiming there is a 100 day wait between first and second vaccine doses in Canada due to a lack of vaccine. I wonder if that is true in Canada as well as other Countries, because, if so, that would surely impact civil aviation.

Any information folks can provide on either topic would be appreciated.

I see someone posted a link to the TSA stats thread, but passenger counts are obviously only one metric. If you want to look at raw traffic count data (which includes airline, military, GA, air taxi, etc.), these are the Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) from last Tuesday 27 APR:

ASPM Airport Ops
Current Ops: 41,376
Seasonal Avg: 55,750
-25.7%

Core Airport Ops
Current Ops: 23,848
Seasonal Avg: 35,820
-33.4%

Center Ops
Current Ops: 87,868
-27.9% var from baseline

Top 7 TRACONs
Current Ops: 23,185
-24.3% var from baseline

Source: FAA/NATCA
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 5:10 am

avier wrote:
CX Flyboy wrote:
Hong Kong is getting less than 100 pax arriving through the airport on many days. That is total pax in a 24hr period! Things are not recovering here - not even close.

That sounds ridiculously low. I thought I made a mistake reading it first and thought it as less than 100 pax flights arriving in a day.
I wonder how CX survives by that number.


Very good question. They are burning through HK$1.5 Billion or so every month (Just under US$200million) . They got a loan from the government last year but at this rate the money won't last long.

The problem is that there is a quarantine required for anyone arriving into HK of 21 days in a hotel at their own expense. In recent times, people from Guangdong province (Which is the Chinese province next to HK), can come in without the need to quarantine but they don't fly anyway, they take the bus/train normally. This very recently was expanded to cover the rest of China but the problem is when people return from HK into China, they need to quarantine for 14 days, so realistically no-one wants to do that. The very strict quarantine rules have led to a low number of cases and deaths considering how dense the city-population is but at what cost? Anything tourism and travel related is being killed.
 
777luver
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 5:42 am

qf789 wrote:
Please keep the topic aviation related. If you wish to discuss vaccinations or the science behind them take it to non-aviation. The same applies if you wish to make political comments, take that to non aviation as well


So people are allowed to talk about quarantines but not a country's vaccination rollout when both topics affect aviation. Okay then.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 5:57 am

The state of Washington just announced that vaccines are available without an appointment. Supply is now over demand. Although the Gov still has tight restrictions, hotels and restaurants are open and quite busy, still requiring masks. I am sure the amount of flying is increasing nicely each day. However, a couple counties may go back to restrictions.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 10:01 am

It is obvious from working throughout the pandemic at the airport that if it was allowed to, it would bounce back much more quickly than it has done the moment the government restrictions are eased. From what I can see there is still plenty of demand if given the chance to prosper, but little in the way of market trust in the govts and airlines. Many people are happy to assess the health risk for themselves/follow clear guidelines but don't want to risk been trapped overseas (or in NZ/UK/AU case within borders) by countries closing borders on and off in kneejerk reactions, and many more don't want to be trapped with flight credit for eternity. For example, the border has been open since 19APR between Australia/New Zealand, but in meantime, there have been lockdowns in both QLD/WA and still no clarification that regardless of lockdowns, Vaccinated individuals should still be allowed to travel quarantine free during these periods. Because of this, the booked loads ex NZ, in particular, has improved markedly from having to pay $3100+ for quarantine on arrival, but still have a long way to go.
 
Turnhouse1
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 11:27 am

If Australia and New Zealand are put on the UK 'green list' (no restrictions) on the 17th of May, will QF reinstate PER-LHR, there would still be a quarantine requirement eastbound, but there might be demand for at least a couple of flights per week. Otherwise only Israel and maybe Malta look likely for the 17th May. The USA has a reasonably high vaccination rate, but also a 7 day average case rate which is 5 times the UK so it might only be classed as yellow (home quarantine), red list will still require hotel quarantine.

Though the bigger issue in the UK is how Europe and in particular France, Spain, Portugal and Greece are categorised as these are our main holiday destinations. Portugal looks the most likely to be green. The others, will almost certainly remain on the yellow list for at least another month.
 
GBNWB
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 2:20 pm

Turnhouse1 wrote:
If Australia and New Zealand are put on the UK 'green list' (no restrictions) on the 17th of May, will QF reinstate PER-LHR, there would still be a quarantine requirement eastbound, but there might be demand for at least a couple of flights per week. Otherwise only Israel and maybe Malta look likely for the 17th May. The USA has a reasonably high vaccination rate, but also a 7 day average case rate which is 5 times the UK so it might only be classed as yellow (home quarantine), red list will still require hotel quarantine.

Though the bigger issue in the UK is how Europe and in particular France, Spain, Portugal and Greece are categorised as these are our main holiday destinations. Portugal looks the most likely to be green. The others, will almost certainly remain on the yellow list for at least another month.


Surely Gibraltar will join Malta and Portugal.
 
Captaincurious
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 2:24 pm

CX Flyboy wrote:
avier wrote:
CX Flyboy wrote:
Hong Kong is getting less than 100 pax arriving through the airport on many days. That is total pax in a 24hr period! Things are not recovering here - not even close.

That sounds ridiculously low. I thought I made a mistake reading it first and thought it as less than 100 pax flights arriving in a day.
I wonder how CX survives by that number.


Very good question. They are burning through HK$1.5 Billion or so every month (Just under US$200million) . They got a loan from the government last year but at this rate the money won't last long.

The problem is that there is a quarantine required for anyone arriving into HK of 21 days in a hotel at their own expense. In recent times, people from Guangdong province (Which is the Chinese province next to HK), can come in without the need to quarantine but they don't fly anyway, they take the bus/train normally. This very recently was expanded to cover the rest of China but the problem is when people return from HK into China, they need to quarantine for 14 days, so realistically no-one wants to do that. The very strict quarantine rules have led to a low number of cases and deaths considering how dense the city-population is but at what cost? Anything tourism and travel related is being killed.


That won't solve the problem. Mainland China is not opening borders. So HK gov has no control
 
dolphinflyer
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 2:27 pm

During April 2021, SMF handled 63% of 2019-level TSA Throughput. Very encouraging signs of sustainable recovery!
 
Turnhouse1
Posts: 202
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 2:54 pm

GBNWB wrote:
Turnhouse1 wrote:
If Australia and New Zealand are put on the UK 'green list' (no restrictions) on the 17th of May, will QF reinstate PER-LHR, there would still be a quarantine requirement eastbound, but there might be demand for at least a couple of flights per week. Otherwise only Israel and maybe Malta look likely for the 17th May. The USA has a reasonably high vaccination rate, but also a 7 day average case rate which is 5 times the UK so it might only be classed as yellow (home quarantine), red list will still require hotel quarantine.

Though the bigger issue in the UK is how Europe and in particular France, Spain, Portugal and Greece are categorised as these are our main holiday destinations. Portugal looks the most likely to be green. The others, will almost certainly remain on the yellow list for at least another month.


Surely Gibraltar will join Malta and Portugal.


Interesting question, very good vaccination rate, but huge amount of cross border with Spain, so dependent on Spanish case rate. Some of the other overseas territories which are more self contained might be green though.
 
UpNAWAy
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 4:33 pm

April TSA numbers are 41,826,159 up 1159% from last YOY (LOL), still down 28 million passengers from 2019 (-40%), but the trend is our friend. March by comparison was down 48% over 2019.
 
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Revelation
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 5:56 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
The state of Washington just announced that vaccines are available without an appointment. Supply is now over demand. Although the Gov still has tight restrictions, hotels and restaurants are open and quite busy, still requiring masks. I am sure the amount of flying is increasing nicely each day. However, a couple counties may go back to restrictions.

State of NH opened to all ages April 2, and opened to people from other states April 19th. There have been occasional calls for walk ins at some of the bigger facilities (NH International Speedway, Rockingham Mall, etc) and calling 211 rather than using the web site often gives instant availability. Governor says pretty much everyone 16 or older who wants a vaccine will get their first shot by Memorial Day (May 31) and since we're on a three week wait for the 2nd shot we very well could be all finished by end of June.

Tourism does fairly well here, so hope people do take the opportunity to come for a visit. They won't infect me, I've had 2x Pfizer already.
 
kbmiflyer
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 7:45 pm

It is a very uneven recovery though. Leisure travel is getting back close to where is used to be. So airports like MCO (or any other Florida airport), LAS, RNO are booming. Just look at the flights the airlines are adding, almost all are too leisure destinations.

Business travel is still in the tank. AA will fly 5 ORD-LGA flights tomorrow, on a normal schedule that number is 11-13.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 8:12 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
The state of Washington just announced that vaccines are available without an appointment. Supply is now over demand. Although the Gov still has tight restrictions, hotels and restaurants are open and quite busy, still requiring masks. I am sure the amount of flying is increasing nicely each day. However, a couple counties may go back to restrictions.

State of NH opened to all ages April 2, and opened to people from other states April 19th. There have been occasional calls for walk ins at some of the bigger facilities (NH International Speedway, Rockingham Mall, etc) and calling 211 rather than using the web site often gives instant availability. Governor says pretty much everyone 16 or older who wants a vaccine will get their first shot by Memorial Day (May 31) and since we're on a three week wait for the 2nd shot we very well could be all finished by end of June.

Tourism does fairly well here, so hope people do take the opportunity to come for a visit. They won't infect me, I've had 2x Pfizer already.

We need the children offered a vaccination for their safety and to prevent spread too. The new variants are pretty bad with kids.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/bra ... 9-n1264231

So while we will recover. Leisure travel for a big part of the market (me) involves traveling with children. I'll happily fly once my kids are fully vaccinated. I won't fly with them until they are.

That said, I have my first trip planned since last summer. :hyper:

Lightsaber
 
itisi
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Sun May 02, 2021 11:55 pm

Domestic travel in most places seem to be doing ok, in places like Hong Kong there is almost ZERO passengers in or out.
 
LAXLHR
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 3:21 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Totally depends on the route.

Leisure routes are getting more demand by the day. Business and long haul international are not going to recover anytime soon.

Domestic leisure routes might hit highs this summer but everything else will be down alot. Buiness travel is dead in decent numbers till 2022 so sadly alot of tickets will be lower priced also and customers are more price sensative



Non business people fly on these so called business and long haul routes. Numbers will recover, but as for yields and full F and J (that will need to be adjusted and lived with by the airlines)
 
LAXLHR
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 3:23 am

I would like to see pre 2020 data for domestic only (with no international segments attached). International only (with no domestic segments attached).

Once we exclude international, we can see the true domestic numbers. Everyone is reporting full flights.

Vaccination or not. People are traveling.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 4:14 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Totally depends on the route.

Leisure routes are getting more demand by the day. Business and long haul international are not going to recover anytime soon.

Domestic leisure routes might hit highs this summer but everything else will be down alot. Buiness travel is dead in decent numbers till 2022 so sadly alot of tickets will be lower priced also and customers are more price sensative


Without Conferences, biz travel by commercial airline is way down, and will be for quite some time to come, I believe. This going to be hamstrung in many places as much by politics as anything else.

The real problem, long-term, is that high-yield business is still traveling, they are just going GA instead of commercial on NetJets, XO, WheelsUp, etc. just like in the late 90’s, a new generation is learning the convenience of GA, as lessening costs bring prices down. The end of the pilot shortage is likely contributing a lot to that, pilot availability and hiring pre-COVID was very tight, now there are plenty.

NetJets reported total hours flown for 2021 down, but almost the same number of trips flown. Where they fly has changed as well. Five of the top ten private jet routes in the US in 2019 were from TEB, to BOS, IAD, MDW, SFO, and Opa-Locka. For Q1 2021, the first four of those aren’t even on the radar, replaced by PBI, APF, OPF, and BNA. You can likely find the same for XO, WheelsUp, Magellan, etc.

The wealthy have fled New York, only returning to occasionally visit their money., while still doing business in the free states. Same applies to the west coast, with Van Nuys-LAS being the busiest route, instead of SJC or Hayward.

We know from the data of quarterly reporting that while leisure traffic is returning, the yield is much lower, and that PPP is propping up costs. When that ends, it will be time for a reckoning, I believe.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 4:33 am

leader1 wrote:
Check out https://flightaware.com/ and look up each airport. At the bottom of the page is a graph compares current traffic (in terms of movements) to pre-COVID traffic. They also made a post from this data.

Based on what I’ve seen looking up different airports, the recovery has been uneven. In the US, it has varied based on region, with the Northeast doing the worst (down about 50%) and the Southeast doing the best (down about 25%). China looks like it has pretty much recovered domestically, but international movements are way down. The rest of Asia Pacific is way, way down. Europe is way down, too. Same with Latin America, but it doesn’t look as bad as Europe. And Canadian traffic is way, way down. Shocking to see an airport like YYZ, which handled 1,400 movements a day before the pandemic, down to about 200. Yikes!


Take a look at the “Executive” GA airports for a comparison, as well. That is where the high yield customers have gone.

FXE was up 50%(!) over last week in 2019, while running about 30% ahead of 2019 for the year.
Other places like APF, SRQ, MQY, JWN, JQF, etc have seen large traffic increases, even PDK in Atlanta, or Gabreski KFOK on Long Island have seen increased traffic, especially small jets.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 4:35 am

LAXLHR wrote:
I would like to see pre 2020 data for domestic only (with no international segments attached). International only (with no domestic segments attached).

Once we exclude international, we can see the true domestic numbers. Everyone is reporting full flights.

Vaccination or not. People are traveling.

But they won’t be traveling after about Aug 15th, when the schools restart, in-person in most places, until the Holidays. Leisure can boost summer, but what happens this fall when that all goes away?
 
chrisair
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Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2000 11:32 pm

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 6:44 am

It’s interesting how airports vary so much by just a few hours right now. PHX T3 is a mess at 6a but at 8a it’s a ghost town.

Flew through SFO a few weeks ago and there were five passengers in my terminal at 8p. Very eerie especially with the restaurants that had a year’s worth of dust and junk building up in them. One still had their inventory list from last April!
 
airbazar
Posts: 10547
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 12:45 pm

As someone who has been traveling on vacation all throughout the Pandemic, April school vacation definitely felt a lot more closer to normal than any other time prior, in the U.S.: Expensive air fares, long security lines, airport concessions and restaurants seemed fully open, full shuttle buses, full planes, etc. I'd venture suggest that demand right now is significantly higher than the supply. Vaccinated or not, for a large part of the population the Pandemic is yesterday's news. Don't be shocked to see huge numbers when schools let out in a couple of months.
 
zakuivcustom
Posts: 3619
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:32 am

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 1:13 pm

Captaincurious wrote:
CX Flyboy wrote:
avier wrote:
That sounds ridiculously low. I thought I made a mistake reading it first and thought it as less than 100 pax flights arriving in a day.
I wonder how CX survives by that number.


Very good question. They are burning through HK$1.5 Billion or so every month (Just under US$200million) . They got a loan from the government last year but at this rate the money won't last long.

The problem is that there is a quarantine required for anyone arriving into HK of 21 days in a hotel at their own expense. In recent times, people from Guangdong province (Which is the Chinese province next to HK), can come in without the need to quarantine but they don't fly anyway, they take the bus/train normally. This very recently was expanded to cover the rest of China but the problem is when people return from HK into China, they need to quarantine for 14 days, so realistically no-one wants to do that. The very strict quarantine rules have led to a low number of cases and deaths considering how dense the city-population is but at what cost? Anything tourism and travel related is being killed.


That won't solve the problem. Mainland China is not opening borders. So HK gov has no control


And the whole politics behind that is idiotic - HKgov knows fully that mainland won't open its border soon, yet they insist on kissing mainland govt behind and let mainlanders come down to HK quarantine free.

Speaking of quarantine isn't air crew still required to be quarantined if they stay certain amount of time over in HK? Not sure what's the exception nowaday.

On a side note about tourism - I would say 80% minimum of daily visitors to HK are from Guangdong anyway and are day-tripper. HKgov loves them as those people inflated the tourism statistics, but those people don't fly into HKG to begin with.

As for CX - they still have cargo flights around which means their income is not totally zero. The situation is still dire, though.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 8605
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 4:42 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Totally depends on the route.

Leisure routes are getting more demand by the day. Business and long haul international are not going to recover anytime soon.

Domestic leisure routes might hit highs this summer but everything else will be down alot. Buiness travel is dead in decent numbers till 2022 so sadly alot of tickets will be lower priced also and customers are more price sensative


Without Conferences, biz travel by commercial airline is way down, and will be for quite some time to come, I believe. This going to be hamstrung in many places as much by politics as anything else.

The real problem, long-term, is that high-yield business is still traveling, they are just going GA instead of commercial on NetJets, XO, WheelsUp, etc. just like in the late 90’s, a new generation is learning the convenience of GA, as lessening costs bring prices down. The end of the pilot shortage is likely contributing a lot to that, pilot availability and hiring pre-COVID was very tight, now there are plenty.

NetJets reported total hours flown for 2021 down, but almost the same number of trips flown. Where they fly has changed as well. Five of the top ten private jet routes in the US in 2019 were from TEB, to BOS, IAD, MDW, SFO, and Opa-Locka. For Q1 2021, the first four of those aren’t even on the radar, replaced by PBI, APF, OPF, and BNA. You can likely find the same for XO, WheelsUp, Magellan, etc.

The wealthy have fled New York, only returning to occasionally visit their money., while still doing business in the free states. Same applies to the west coast, with Van Nuys-LAS being the busiest route, instead of SJC or Hayward.

We know from the data of quarterly reporting that while leisure traffic is returning, the yield is much lower, and that PPP is propping up costs. When that ends, it will be time for a reckoning, I believe.


A friend has been flying TEB-ASE all thru the pandemic, business, then back to splendid isolation. Global plane.
 
kbmiflyer
Posts: 331
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 11:47 pm

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 5:31 pm

chrisair wrote:
It’s interesting how airports vary so much by just a few hours right now. PHX T3 is a mess at 6a but at 8a it’s a ghost town.

Flew through SFO a few weeks ago and there were five passengers in my terminal at 8p. Very eerie especially with the restaurants that had a year’s worth of dust and junk building up in them. One still had their inventory list from last April!


Agree with this. At least with American they seem even more banked than usual right now. I was traveling last week at ORD during a bank that had landings around 11:30 am and had departures around 12:30 pm. At 11:30 the lines for the restaurants that are open were 15 - 20 people deep. By 12:00, the lines were virtually gone.
 
FlyGuy27
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:58 pm

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 6:43 pm

LGA is still quiet (no surprise - no biz travel). LGA-ORD on UA is only a few flights a day - a far cry from the days of the 4pm, 4:30pm and 5pm flights!

EWR is an absolute mess in the morning for the 8am-9:30am push to Florida, Mexico, DR, etc. You can see the leisure skew in a few places - the TSA non-Pre line being the most obvious indicator of flyer mix.

I was the only one in the Premier line at FLL a few weeks ago - general check-in was halfway down the terminal.
 
bomber996
Posts: 538
Joined: Mon Aug 29, 2005 10:21 am

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 6:53 pm

FlyGuy27 wrote:
LGA is still quiet (no surprise - no biz travel). LGA-ORD on UA is only a few flights a day - a far cry from the days of the 4pm, 4:30pm and 5pm flights!

EWR is an absolute mess in the morning for the 8am-9:30am push to Florida, Mexico, DR, etc. You can see the leisure skew in a few places - the TSA non-Pre line being the most obvious indicator of flyer mix.

I was the only one in the Premier line at FLL a few weeks ago - general check-in was halfway down the terminal.


Two weeks ago in Miami the regular TSA line had to be 30-40 minutes long. I was through TSA Pre-check in less than 5 minutes. Same general thing in MSP, just not as extreme. Definitely WAY more leisure, but this was known.

Peace :box:
 
SEU
Posts: 364
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: How Much is Traffic Recovering?

Mon May 03, 2021 7:31 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
New data are posted M-F.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

There's a long-running thread.


Is this just the US? If so its just one country, tiny in proportion to the rest of the world. Interesting still

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