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New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 8:13 am

Welcome to the New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021. Please continue to add your comments below.

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zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 5:49 pm

And the second bubble pop of 2022 goes to.... Western Australia. They are doing well on track to be the top bubble popper.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nz-government-says-flights-from-western-australia-to-new-zealand-should-be-immediately-paused-after-perth-covid-19-cases/JFJMOAU32EJCNEFBHYMV3HOJWQ/

New Zealand has paused all direct services to PER pending further information on Sunday. Last nights PER-AKL service did not operate.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 7:08 pm

Not a chance I reckon. Just back on the radar. Maybe a service into AKL this summer. But it wouldn't surprise me if the whole thing is postponed until NZ summer 2022/23, or shelved altogether.
Plane mad!

Quote above is from last month. I would say that AA are going by the promises made by the NZ Government that all the population will be Vaccinated by the end of 2021. So re starting services here in early 2022 could be possible. But I don't think all 3 routes it will be too much capacity at once.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 7:19 pm

Looking like a Cook Islands announcement is coming Monday and flights to resume on the 10th of May.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... bWhlEFnxhs
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 7:22 pm

Invercargill punching above it's weight perhaps a second daily 320;service to AKL might be needed soon.. Cargo volumes have exploded as well. From 1.6 tonnes a month pre covid to 6.7 tonnes a month now.

"Invercargill 'punching above its weight', Air New Zealand chairman says | Stuff.co.nz" https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12498241 ... irman-says
 
NPL8800
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 8:51 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Invercargill punching above it's weight perhaps a second daily 320;service to AKL might be needed soon.. Cargo volumes have exploded as well. From 1.6 tonnes a month pre covid to 6.7 tonnes a month now.

"Invercargill 'punching above its weight', Air New Zealand chairman says | Stuff.co.nz" https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12498241 ... irman-says


Probably be wise to aim for a single daily flight first before even thinking of double, been interesting to watch the AKL-IVC route, note its still only x4 weekly at definite leisure times vs the previous business orientated ones, potentially been a bit of a shift in demand characteristics.

On the freight side, whilst these are somewhat crude calculations the figure of 6.7t would equate on average to a little over 200kg of freight per sector over the course of a month . Whilst it could well be high in value itd seem to be a bit of a stretch to say the market is "booming".
 
GW54
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 01, 2021 8:53 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Invercargill punching above it's weight perhaps a second daily 320;service to AKL might be needed soon.. Cargo volumes have exploded as well. From 1.6 tonnes a month pre covid to 6.7 tonnes a month now.

"Invercargill 'punching above its weight', Air New Zealand chairman says | Stuff.co.nz" https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12498241 ... irman-says


Could be a early morning IVC-WLG that then carries on to AKL. with a reversal in the evenning to replace the current Q300. This model is in place for DUD and Queenstown.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 12:11 am

NZ516 wrote:
Invercargill punching above it's weight perhaps a second daily 320;service to AKL might be needed soon.. Cargo volumes have exploded as well. From 1.6 tonnes a month pre covid to 6.7 tonnes a month now.

"Invercargill 'punching above its weight', Air New Zealand chairman says | Stuff.co.nz" https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12498241 ... irman-says


Spent a lot of my childhood shuttling between Auckland and Invercargill. I loved how attuned the locals were to their airport and airline connections. Air NZ was 3 times a day from CHC on a howling 732, one via DUD, to the point where people would know exactly how late the flight was as it roared overhead. Eveb the hushkits were talked about at the supermarket checkout. When Ansett came it was all the talk with the 146s. And in every house you could find the Air NZ printed timetable in that thick little booklet.

Trips out to the airport itself were a thing and everyone would linger around the distinctive 2 storey terminal to meet and greet, which had a fantastic view of the apron. It was such a big deal when the airbridge was installed and then the ATRs replaced the 737s. Outrageous! Ha.

I only saw recently that they replaced that old terminal with a very plain and basic one level thing, with that temporary look that we do so well in NZ. A shame. But great to see IVC bouncing back and I hope the locals are happy with a jet back in town. Given the lack of competition, the airfares seem remarkably reasonable to me. I hope they get a Jetstar link one day.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 1:35 am

NZ516 wrote:
Not a chance I reckon. Just back on the radar. Maybe a service into AKL this summer. But it wouldn't surprise me if the whole thing is postponed until NZ summer 2022/23, or shelved altogether.
Plane mad!

Quote above is from last month. I would say that AA are going by the promises made by the NZ Government that all the population will be Vaccinated by the end of 2021. So re starting services here in early 2022 could be possible. But I don't think all 3 routes it will be too much capacity at once.


There is the US side of things aswell,either way I can’t see DFW-AKL for some time LAX-CHC probably a while away as well, would see LAX-AKL first but not till late 2022 atleast myself.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 2:25 am

GW54 wrote:
Could be a early morning IVC-WLG that then carries on to AKL. with a reversal in the evenning to replace the current Q300. This model is in place for DUD and Queenstown.


But then you wouldn't get to spend 2.2hours on a Q300....
It sounds like the best flight currently on the NZ domestic network.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 11:29 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Not a chance I reckon. Just back on the radar. Maybe a service into AKL this summer. But it wouldn't surprise me if the whole thing is postponed until NZ summer 2022/23, or shelved altogether.
Plane mad!

Quote above is from last month. I would say that AA are going by the promises made by the NZ Government that all the population will be Vaccinated by the end of 2021. So re starting services here in early 2022 could be possible. But I don't think all 3 routes it will be too much capacity at once.


There is the US side of things aswell,either way I can’t see DFW-AKL for some time LAX-CHC probably a while away as well, would see LAX-AKL first but not till late 2022 atleast myself.


What is your reason for late 2022 that is like 18 months from now. Seems a very long way to wait till it's safe.. The US population will be mostly all vaccinated by June and then we only have to wait till NZ catches up this Dec. So early next year should be doable for low risk NZ to US flights.
 
Gemuser
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 11:46 am

What is your reason for late 2022 that is like 18 months from now. Seems a very long way to wait till it's safe.. The US population will be mostly all vaccinated by June and then we only have to wait till NZ catches up this Dec. So early next year should be doable for low risk NZ to US flights.

IMHO you are expecting a much better vacination coverage than is reasonable, some 30 - 40% of adults are refusing the vaccin [depending on which poll you read] this is not good news as you require 85% - 95% to ensure heard immunity. Until the USA reaches at least 85% neither NZ nor Australia should open up. The development of an internationally accepted "vaccine passport" at least as counterfit proof as actual passports may change this but that will take time. Unfortunately the old WHO "Yello Book" vaccination record seems DOA currently.

Gemuser
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 9:17 pm

NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Quote above is from last month. I would say that AA are going by the promises made by the NZ Government that all the population will be Vaccinated by the end of 2021. So re starting services here in early 2022 could be possible. But I don't think all 3 routes it will be too much capacity at once.


There is the US side of things aswell,either way I can’t see DFW-AKL for some time LAX-CHC probably a while away as well, would see LAX-AKL first but not till late 2022 atleast myself.


What is your reason for late 2022 that is like 18 months from now. Seems a very long way to wait till it's safe.. The US population will be mostly all vaccinated by June and then we only have to wait till NZ catches up this Dec. So early next year should be doable for low risk NZ to US flights.


I do think people are overly optimistic, more in the lines of their own needs and wants, AA are seasonal to AKL anyway amd I think early 2022 at this stage certainly looks to be more hopeful than anything, given they are seasonal I wouldn’t expect them before October 2022 and probably just a LAX-AKL service.

Demand isn’t suddenly going to be 2019 levels overnight, NZ will likely suffer the most capacity wise into North America initially, you won’t see IAH/ORD/EWR start at once mainly LAX/SFO and some lower frequencies elsewhere as things pick up.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 10:46 pm

Thanks for the replies. A lot of challenges ahead especially with the slow roll out of the vax and low uptake as well huge break on opening the boarder.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 02, 2021 10:49 pm

Sounds Air looking at ramping up their South Island flying. Makes sense to go double daily on the CHC WKA route. As the plane has a long layover between flights on the days the 2nd flight doesn't operate.

https://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=331533
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 1:56 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I do think people are overly optimistic, more in the lines of their own needs and wants, AA are seasonal to AKL anyway amd I think early 2022 at this stage certainly looks to be more hopeful than anything, given they are seasonal I wouldn’t expect them before October 2022 and probably just a LAX-AKL service.

Demand isn’t suddenly going to be 2019 levels overnight, NZ will likely suffer the most capacity wise into North America initially, you won’t see IAH/ORD/EWR start at once mainly LAX/SFO and some lower frequencies elsewhere as things pick up.


I don't fully 'disagree' but it's also pretty easy to be peristatic about the medium term future as well.

The UK is improving at a rate which I don't think many really expected. While the US isn't looking as good, it's still vastly better than just 3 months ago. There's no doubt we have a long, long way to go before the world is 'back to normal' but Vaccines are working and appear to be very effective.

But as we get closer to year end there'll be a lot more science and therefore questions being asked around reopening and how, when etc

The first requirement is completing our Vaccine rollout at home - a month ago I was of the opinion it'd be mid '22, but signs are starting to point towards the original timeline being somewhat conservative. Could we pull it off and be done by Summer 2021? - the test will come in July.

We'll never reach 100%, but at what do we accept the opportunity has been provided and we 'reopen' - how does the 75% heard immunity statistic play into this? (whatever that magical number is). Does the health system capacity play a factor?

The issue for AA and NZ or UA, is we won't have many of these answers until very late in the first quarter for FY22, likely ell into the second to be realistic. With that lead time, is it more costly to operate than not?

My point is, this coming summer is the absolute earliest anything can 'reopen' in this market, as we need to complete out vaccination program regardless of where the US is at. But Summer 2022 could also be a year after the fact. The truth will be somewhere in the middle.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 4:07 am

17 May, Cook Islands Bubble Opens
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 4:27 am

NZ6 wrote:
17 May, Cook Islands Bubble Opens


How many New Zealanders can Rarotonga handle in the up coming July hoildays?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 4:34 am

Flights to RAR for the next couple of weeks seem to be selling out very fast, wonder how long until the A321NEO are changed to 789s?
 
lowesrus
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 7:27 am

zkncj wrote:
Flights to RAR for the next couple of weeks seem to be selling out very fast, wonder how long until the A321NEO are changed to 789s?


Looks like it as already been changed to a 789.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 8:08 am

zkncj wrote:
Flights to RAR for the next couple of weeks seem to be selling out very fast, wonder how long until the A321NEO are changed to 789s?


I can see 3 weekly 789s showing, did I see a 4th flight added in June?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 10:34 am

the RAR A321 schedule will be quickly recycled for trans-tasman frequencies to places that demand it, but don't warrant a 787. like ADL, OOL, CNS, HBA etc or to beefing up multiple daily frequencies to BNE/SYD/MEL Even if the 787 is not full, RAR would be most happy about the cargo hold space that will open up, they will be able to get PMC pallets again. I could also see them swapping out the NAN 787 frequency for the RAR A321 while NAN remains plagued with COVID. NAN already has plenty of A330/A350 cargo capacity served by FJ
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NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 4:24 pm

NZ6 wrote:
17 May, Cook Islands Bubble Opens


Now if only Mike Pero held out a little bit longer he could have launched his airline. Wonder if he will give it another go Pacifica Air CHC and WLG to RAR there seems to be a fair amount of demand .
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 4:37 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
the RAR A321 schedule will be quickly recycled for trans-tasman frequencies to places that demand it, but don't warrant a 787. like ADL, OOL, CNS, HBA etc or to beefing up multiple daily frequencies to BNE/SYD/MEL Even if the 787 is not full, RAR would be most happy about the cargo hold space that will open up, they will be able to get PMC pallets again. I could also see them swapping out the NAN 787 frequency for the RAR A321 while NAN remains plagued with COVID. NAN already has plenty of A330/A350 cargo capacity served by FJ


QF this week increased its new AKL-CNS flight from an 738 to a A332.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 4:51 pm

This is a forecast for Air NZ by Forsyth Barr and they expect two more years of red ink for the airline. It mentions the American market was a big revenue earner and they the airline will want to get back in as soon as possible.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/30029129 ... ew-zealand
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 11:02 pm

NZ516 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
17 May, Cook Islands Bubble Opens


Now if only Mike Pero held out a little bit longer he could have launched his airline. Wonder if he will give it another go Pacifica Air CHC and WLG to RAR there seems to be a fair amount of demand .


He's making comments to still launching this year.

Australia won't be far behind us in a triangle bubble and with that I expect JQ to start flying too.

zkncj wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
17 May, Cook Islands Bubble Opens


How many New Zealanders can Rarotonga handle in the up coming July hoildays?


I can't recall the exact data but there is an approx upper limit to how many visitors RAR can accommodate due to limited accommodation supplies etc. You could probably count all the hotels, B&B etc multiple the room around by 2.2 or thereabouts - As a side note I believe more Cook Islanders live in NZ than in the Cooks.

But this relates to my first line. Mike Pero won't last once NZ, JQ fill the market with seats.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 11:03 pm

NZ516 wrote:
This is a forecast for Air NZ by Forsyth Barr and they expect two more years of red ink for the airline. It mentions the American market was a big revenue earner and they the airline will want to get back in as soon as possible.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/30029129 ... ew-zealand


Nothing ground breaking in this is there?
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 03, 2021 11:57 pm

zkncj wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
the RAR A321 schedule will be quickly recycled for trans-tasman frequencies to places that demand it, but don't warrant a 787. like ADL, OOL, CNS, HBA etc or to beefing up multiple daily frequencies to BNE/SYD/MEL Even if the 787 is not full, RAR would be most happy about the cargo hold space that will open up, they will be able to get PMC pallets again. I could also see them swapping out the NAN 787 frequency for the RAR A321 while NAN remains plagued with COVID. NAN already has plenty of A330/A350 cargo capacity served by FJ


QF this week increased its new AKL-CNS flight from an 738 to a A332.


CNS was loaded as an A332 from the start I thought? QF schedules don’t load half the time, I think they have retimed the CNS-AKL sector? Was 1350 iirc now 1630 so it’s now CNS-AKL-CNS with a RON, rather than SYD-AKL-CNS or something.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 1:35 am

https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-li ... lands-year

Looks like he is giving it another go.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 2:45 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
the RAR A321 schedule will be quickly recycled for trans-tasman frequencies to places that demand it, but don't warrant a 787. like ADL, OOL, CNS, HBA etc or to beefing up multiple daily frequencies to BNE/SYD/MEL Even if the 787 is not full, RAR would be most happy about the cargo hold space that will open up, they will be able to get PMC pallets again. I could also see them swapping out the NAN 787 frequency for the RAR A321 while NAN remains plagued with COVID. NAN already has plenty of A330/A350 cargo capacity served by FJ


QF this week increased its new AKL-CNS flight from an 738 to a A332.


CNS was loaded as an A332 from the start I thought? QF schedules don’t load half the time, I think they have retimed the CNS-AKL sector? Was 1350 iirc now 1630 so it’s now CNS-AKL-CNS with a RON, rather than SYD-AKL-CNS or something.


Yes it was reported in the Cairns Post at least a month ago that the new QF service is using their A330s.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 3:32 am

Perhaps with the Cooks opening up Air NZ can restart their AKL RAR SYD return 787 service if Australia is happy to join the bubble.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 9:45 am

So what happens to the Australia-NZ bubble if Australia signs a bubble agreement with Singapore and/or Hong Kong?
Plane mad!
 
xiaotung
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 10:54 am

NZ321 wrote:
So what happens to the Australia-NZ bubble if Australia signs a bubble agreement with Singapore and/or Hong Kong?


I suppose same as people coming in from the Cook Islands can't go straight to Australia unless spending 14 days in NZ.

Whoever wants to come to NZ from Australia must have spent at least 14 days in Australia.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 11:02 am

NZ516 wrote:
Perhaps with the Cooks opening up Air NZ can restart their AKL RAR SYD return 787 service if Australia is happy to join the bubble.

I could see RAR being an attractive destination for Aussies given the lack of alternatives currently, and NZ could be well placed to capitalise on it. BITRE stats suggest SYD-RAR has in the past had a patchy record in terms of attracting pax, from memory, but twice weekly in the current environment could turn that around as just once weekly makes it hard to sell. Yes, indirect flights are also possible, but outbound requires an overnight in AKL, which is an unattractive proposition.
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TEALflyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 11:38 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Perhaps with the Cooks opening up Air NZ can restart their AKL RAR SYD return 787 service if Australia is happy to join the bubble.

I could see RAR being an attractive destination for Aussies given the lack of alternatives currently, and NZ could be well placed to capitalise on it. BITRE stats suggest SYD-RAR has in the past had a patchy record in terms of attracting pax, from memory, but twice weekly in the current environment could turn that around as just once weekly makes it hard to sell. Yes, indirect flights are also possible, but outbound requires an overnight in AKL, which is an unattractive proposition.

The NZ government release regarding the Cook Islands bubble has a ”further information” note that mentions that anyone wishing to travel from Australia to the Cook Islands would basically need to stop off in New Zealand for 14 days on the way.
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/nz- ... 9-recovery
 
tullamarine
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 11:48 am

DavidByrne wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Perhaps with the Cooks opening up Air NZ can restart their AKL RAR SYD return 787 service if Australia is happy to join the bubble.

I could see RAR being an attractive destination for Aussies given the lack of alternatives currently, and NZ could be well placed to capitalise on it. BITRE stats suggest SYD-RAR has in the past had a patchy record in terms of attracting pax, from memory, but twice weekly in the current environment could turn that around as just once weekly makes it hard to sell. Yes, indirect flights are also possible, but outbound requires an overnight in AKL, which is an unattractive proposition.

Cook Islands, whilst a beautiful part of the world, has always been expensive in comparison with other popular destinations for Australians. Obviously, a lot of those places are currently out of reach but Cook Islands is still competing against Australian domestic destinations on the Queensland coast and NW of WA. There may be a case to open up the bubble but I think Australians would probably prefer Singapore first.
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DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 12:52 pm

tullamarine wrote:
Cook Islands, whilst a beautiful part of the world, has always been expensive in comparison with other popular destinations for Australians. Obviously, a lot of those places are currently out of reach but Cook Islands is still competing against Australian domestic destinations on the Queensland coast and NW of WA. There may be a case to open up the bubble but I think Australians would probably prefer Singapore first.

I’ve heard this argument before, but it’s also the case that the Queensland coast is competing with Raro for Kiwi tourists as well - but Raro nevertheless does extremely well out of it, with NZ running up to two WB flights a day during the peak of peak (in past years). Sure, it’s further and more expensive for Aussies to travel, and it isn’t a destination to appeal to the bogan element. But even a tiny fraction of the potential Australian tourist trade would be big numbers for the Cooks. And most of all it’s quite, quite different from any Aussie destination I know, a completely different cultural vibe, and infinitely more laid back. Don’t Aussies like laid back as much as Kiwis when on holiday, perhaps?

Of course it’s all academic for the present if Aussies have to spend 14 days in NZ before proceeding to Raro. But that won’t be the case for ever. The suggestion that Aussies would prefer Singapore first also isn’t that relevant either - preference isn’t going to dictate which bubbles open first, it’ll be covid status. And with 50% more active covid cases than Australia but a small fraction of Australia’s population, Singapore doesn’t seem to me to be a smart choice for bubble negotiations in the immediate short term, no matter what the boosters say. And not the least, it’s catering to a completely different market compared to Raro.

Personally, I think it’s all in the marketing, and a competent campaign by the Cook Islands government and NZ (and JQ if/when they return there?) could make all the difference.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 1:13 pm

Barrier Air is all set to launch a new daily scheduled service between Auckland and Whitianga. Tickets will be a reasonable $80 each way they will upgrade the GPS at the airport to make flights more reliable. Also they will base an aircraft overnight with a 0730 departure to AKL.
See link for more info:
http://theinformer.co.nz/detail.aspx?cid=3591
 
xiaotung
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 2:13 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Cook Islands, whilst a beautiful part of the world, has always been expensive in comparison with other popular destinations for Australians. Obviously, a lot of those places are currently out of reach but Cook Islands is still competing against Australian domestic destinations on the Queensland coast and NW of WA. There may be a case to open up the bubble but I think Australians would probably prefer Singapore first.

I’ve heard this argument before, but it’s also the case that the Queensland coast is competing with Raro for Kiwi tourists as well - but Raro nevertheless does extremely well out of it, with NZ running up to two WB flights a day during the peak of peak (in past years). Sure, it’s further and more expensive for Aussies to travel, and it isn’t a destination to appeal to the bogan element. But even a tiny fraction of the potential Australian tourist trade would be big numbers for the Cooks. And most of all it’s quite, quite different from any Aussie destination I know, a completely different cultural vibe, and infinitely more laid back. Don’t Aussies like laid back as much as Kiwis when on holiday, perhaps?

Of course it’s all academic for the present if Aussies have to spend 14 days in NZ before proceeding to Raro. But that won’t be the case for ever. The suggestion that Aussies would prefer Singapore first also isn’t that relevant either - preference isn’t going to dictate which bubbles open first, it’ll be covid status. And with 50% more active covid cases than Australia but a small fraction of Australia’s population, Singapore doesn’t seem to me to be a smart choice for bubble negotiations in the immediate short term, no matter what the boosters say. And not the least, it’s catering to a completely different market compared to Raro.

Personally, I think it’s all in the marketing, and a competent campaign by the Cook Islands government and NZ (and JQ if/when they return there?) could make all the difference.


Singapore would bring huge economic benefits to Australia. They have talked about using Singapore as a hub to bring people back. For example, Singapore currently has a one way bubble with China. Chinese international students unable to get to Australia could use Singapore as a jumping point to get back to their studies. This without touching the sensitive political topics would be a brilliant idea. New Zealand should be doing the same if a direct bubble with China can't be achieved.

Singapore's case number has only been in the single digit I think. Anything above 5 would burst their bubble with Hong Kong.

Rarotonga would take Aussies' travel dollars away without being reciprocated. There is just no incentive for the government,
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2730
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Tue May 04, 2021 11:11 pm

xiaotung wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Cook Islands, whilst a beautiful part of the world, has always been expensive in comparison with other popular destinations for Australians. Obviously, a lot of those places are currently out of reach but Cook Islands is still competing against Australian domestic destinations on the Queensland coast and NW of WA. There may be a case to open up the bubble but I think Australians would probably prefer Singapore first.

I’ve heard this argument before, but it’s also the case that the Queensland coast is competing with Raro for Kiwi tourists as well - but Raro nevertheless does extremely well out of it, with NZ running up to two WB flights a day during the peak of peak (in past years). Sure, it’s further and more expensive for Aussies to travel, and it isn’t a destination to appeal to the bogan element. But even a tiny fraction of the potential Australian tourist trade would be big numbers for the Cooks. And most of all it’s quite, quite different from any Aussie destination I know, a completely different cultural vibe, and infinitely more laid back. Don’t Aussies like laid back as much as Kiwis when on holiday, perhaps?

Of course it’s all academic for the present if Aussies have to spend 14 days in NZ before proceeding to Raro. But that won’t be the case for ever. The suggestion that Aussies would prefer Singapore first also isn’t that relevant either - preference isn’t going to dictate which bubbles open first, it’ll be covid status. And with 50% more active covid cases than Australia but a small fraction of Australia’s population, Singapore doesn’t seem to me to be a smart choice for bubble negotiations in the immediate short term, no matter what the boosters say. And not the least, it’s catering to a completely different market compared to Raro.

Personally, I think it’s all in the marketing, and a competent campaign by the Cook Islands government and NZ (and JQ if/when they return there?) could make all the difference.


Singapore would bring huge economic benefits to Australia. They have talked about using Singapore as a hub to bring people back. For example, Singapore currently has a one way bubble with China. Chinese international students unable to get to Australia could use Singapore as a jumping point to get back to their studies. This without touching the sensitive political topics would be a brilliant idea. New Zealand should be doing the same if a direct bubble with China can't be achieved.

Singapore's case number has only been in the single digit I think. Anything above 5 would burst their bubble with Hong Kong.

Rarotonga would take Aussies' travel dollars away without being reciprocated. There is just no incentive for the government,

Whilst I agree with your points, I think it is likely that any AU/SG bubble will probably just be limited to Australian and Singapore citizens/permanent residents. The gov't will not be keen to allow back-door entry into Australia.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1759
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 1:57 am

xiaotung wrote:
Singapore would bring huge economic benefits to Australia. They have talked about using Singapore as a hub to bring people back. For example, Singapore currently has a one way bubble with China. Chinese international students unable to get to Australia could use Singapore as a jumping point to get back to their studies. This without touching the sensitive political topics would be a brilliant idea. New Zealand should be doing the same if a direct bubble with China can't be achieved.

Singapore's case number has only been in the single digit I think. Anything above 5 would burst their bubble with Hong Kong.

Rarotonga would take Aussies' travel dollars away without being reciprocated. There is just no incentive for the government,

But it’s not all about economics, is it? Or at least, it shouldn’t be. Singapore, btw, had 17 new cases yesterday, and 31 today. Equivalent on a population basis to about 150 a day in Australia. I don’t think that Aus or NZ are ready for a bubble with that level of infection - far too risky.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Kent350787
Posts: 1834
Joined: Wed May 28, 2008 12:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 2:28 am

DavidByrne wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
Singapore would bring huge economic benefits to Australia. They have talked about using Singapore as a hub to bring people back. For example, Singapore currently has a one way bubble with China. Chinese international students unable to get to Australia could use Singapore as a jumping point to get back to their studies. This without touching the sensitive political topics would be a brilliant idea. New Zealand should be doing the same if a direct bubble with China can't be achieved.

Singapore's case number has only been in the single digit I think. Anything above 5 would burst their bubble with Hong Kong.

Rarotonga would take Aussies' travel dollars away without being reciprocated. There is just no incentive for the government,

But it’s not all about economics, is it? Or at least, it shouldn’t be. Singapore, btw, had 17 new cases yesterday, and 31 today. Equivalent on a population basis to about 150 a day in Australia. I don’t think that Aus or NZ are ready for a bubble with that level of infection - far too risky.


Certainly not with the low current vaccinations rates in both our countries. Even in the least risk averse parts of the bubble, that case number increase would be a pathway to local lockdown.
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aerokiwi
Posts: 2810
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 4:54 am

NZ516 wrote:
Barrier Air is all set to launch a new daily scheduled service between Auckland and Whitianga. Tickets will be a reasonable $80 each way they will upgrade the GPS at the airport to make flights more reliable. Also they will base an aircraft overnight with a 0730 departure to AKL.
See link for more info:
http://theinformer.co.nz/detail.aspx?cid=3591


Oh what a fantastic offer. The link won't work for me but that would be brilliant for people connecting from anywhere else in NZ. I love these little regional routes.
 
aerokiwi
Posts: 2810
Joined: Sun Jul 30, 2000 1:17 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 4:59 am

DavidByrne wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
Singapore would bring huge economic benefits to Australia. They have talked about using Singapore as a hub to bring people back. For example, Singapore currently has a one way bubble with China. Chinese international students unable to get to Australia could use Singapore as a jumping point to get back to their studies. This without touching the sensitive political topics would be a brilliant idea. New Zealand should be doing the same if a direct bubble with China can't be achieved.

Singapore's case number has only been in the single digit I think. Anything above 5 would burst their bubble with Hong Kong.

Rarotonga would take Aussies' travel dollars away without being reciprocated. There is just no incentive for the government,

But it’s not all about economics, is it? Or at least, it shouldn’t be. Singapore, btw, had 17 new cases yesterday, and 31 today. Equivalent on a population basis to about 150 a day in Australia. I don’t think that Aus or NZ are ready for a bubble with that level of infection - far too risky.


So as vaccination rates increase, the metric for risk will no longer be the number of infections. The vaccines aren't designed to limit transmission (though apparently there is evidence of that with most strains) but to eliminate the risk of severe illness and hospitalisation. So if the world is to return to being a world - and the world is starting to move on with vaccination rates - both Australia and NZ will have to open up eventually.

I agree that with vaccination rates still fairly low in Australia and tiny in NZ, a bubble with Singapore isn't for now. Also the impact of new strains is still to be seen, I would much rather Taiwan, the superstar of global COVID response, was first off the rank. A far more interesting destination anyway. Though Australia and Singapore have deeper links, both social and economic, than Taiwan.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1759
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 5:39 am

aerokiwi wrote:
Also the impact of new strains is still to be seen, I would much rather Taiwan, the superstar of global COVID response, was first off the rank. A far more interesting destination anyway. Though Australia and Singapore have deeper links, both social and economic, than Taiwan.

I agree Taiwan is a very strong candidate for a bubble and an expansion of the inbound tourist industry. I would love to see NZ consolidate and grow its fledgling AKL-TPE route post-pandemic. However, I suspect that both the government and NZ (the carrier) will be conscious of the risk of causing offence to the PRC, with potentially unknown consequences. Rightly or wrongly, realpolitik may prevail.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ516
Posts: 547
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 7:02 am

On the subject of Singapore.
SQ have celebrated 45 years of serving NZ.
Some old photos on here.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... aland.html
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1094
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 11:46 am

DavidByrne wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
Singapore would bring huge economic benefits to Australia. They have talked about using Singapore as a hub to bring people back. For example, Singapore currently has a one way bubble with China. Chinese international students unable to get to Australia could use Singapore as a jumping point to get back to their studies. This without touching the sensitive political topics would be a brilliant idea. New Zealand should be doing the same if a direct bubble with China can't be achieved.

Singapore's case number has only been in the single digit I think. Anything above 5 would burst their bubble with Hong Kong.

Rarotonga would take Aussies' travel dollars away without being reciprocated. There is just no incentive for the government,


But it’s not all about economics, is it? Or at least, it shouldn’t be. Singapore, btw, had 17 new cases yesterday, and 31 today. Equivalent on a population basis to about 150 a day in Australia. I don’t think that Aus or NZ are ready for a bubble with that level of infection - far too risky.


No, it should be about public health first and foremost. But it's just your numbers don't seem right. Do they include hotel quarantine cases? The official community transmission number for the past 3 days were 10, 5 and 1. Certainly this cluster is lower than the last Northern Beaches breach in NSW. Bear in mind that the tolerance level for community transmission for the Singapore/Hong Kong bubble is only 5 per day. If that bubble can work well, there is really no reason for Aus and NZ to hesitate especially towards the end of the year when vaccination programmes in both countries get ramped up.
 
ZKOJH
Posts: 1504
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 9:51 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 12:48 pm

Does anybody know how well the "cargo service" to Guangzhou did? could never find it on FR24 . Could we see PAX services going into this port? there was talk of this last year any updates?

Extension to Air New Zealand and Air China alliance


Air New Zealand and Air China have extended their strategic alliance partnership on services between New Zealand and China for a further five years.
3 May 2021

The announcement was made by Air New Zealand Chief Executive Officer Greg Foran at the China Business Summit in Auckland this morning.

Mr Foran welcomed the extension, saying it will help New Zealand rebuild together.

"China is an incredibly important market for Aotearoa, and for Air New Zealand. The renewal of our strategic cooperation with Air China will be a vital boost for our tourism industry as it recovers from the severe impact of COVID-19.

So guess its still really based on CA flying the PEK route and NZ flying to PVG.

https://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/press-r ... a-alliance
Air New Zealand ~ dreams of flying
 
NZ321
Posts: 1356
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:00 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 1:42 pm

Love to see NZ add another port; CAN, or perhaps, NKG. China's a big and diverse country - PVG doesn't cut it on it's own. Apart from PEK, the three cities I've mentioned seem to be of interest to other long haul/international carriers, compared to the likes of KMG, CKG CTU, WUH or HGH.
Plane mad!
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1759
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Wed May 05, 2021 10:22 pm

xiaotung wrote:
No, it should be about public health first and foremost. But it's just your numbers don't seem right. Do they include hotel quarantine cases? The official community transmission number for the past 3 days were 10, 5 and 1.

Fair comment - my numbers were from Johns Hopkins University which tracks cases worldwide, but does not distinguish between imported cases and community transmission. Local Singapore news sources do confirm lower levels of current community transmission, along the lines of the numbers you quote. But they also suggest there are currently (6 May) ten active clusters, the largest of which comprises 40 cases. Seems that many of these cases are in the “dormitory” sector.

I’d be happy for NZ to open to Singapore as soon as there is reasonable confidence that such clusters are under control long term. I’m not sure how well enforced their quarantine is, though, given visitors from countries perceived as “low risk” can stay at the lodging of their choice.

But for all that the picture does seem rosier than I had first assumed. Would love to see NZ get those planes back in the air to SIN, but I don’t think we’re there yet.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife

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