NZ321 wrote:

Love to see NZ add another port; CAN, or perhaps, NKG. China's a big and diverse country - PVG doesn't cut it on it's own. Apart from PEK, the three cities I've mentioned seem to be of interest to other long haul/international carriers, compared to the likes of KMG, CKG CTU, WUH or HGH.

IIRC NZ seriously considered CTU a few years back but didn’t proceed due to its cost base being so much higher than the competition. That predated the arrangement with Air China, though, so perhaps things are different now. Or will be when borders reopen.

NZ321 wrote:

Love to see NZ add another port; CAN, or perhaps, NKG. China's a big and diverse country - PVG doesn't cut it on it's own. Apart from PEK, the three cities I've mentioned seem to be of interest to other long haul/international carriers, compared to the likes of KMG, CKG CTU, WUH or HGH.

Ironically NZ is currently running AKL/CHC-CAN services for freight only, have noticed them on Flightradar for the last couple of weeks.

DavidByrne wrote:

xiaotung wrote:

Singapore would bring huge economic benefits to Australia. They have talked about using Singapore as a hub to bring people back. For example, Singapore currently has a one way bubble with China. Chinese international students unable to get to Australia could use Singapore as a jumping point to get back to their studies. This without touching the sensitive political topics would be a brilliant idea. New Zealand should be doing the same if a direct bubble with China can't be achieved.

Singapore's case number has only been in the single digit I think. Anything above 5 would burst their bubble with Hong Kong.

Rarotonga would take Aussies' travel dollars away without being reciprocated. There is just no incentive for the government,

But it’s not all about economics, is it? Or at least, it shouldn’t be. Singapore, btw, had 17 new cases yesterday, and 31 today. Equivalent on a population basis to about 150 a day in Australia. I don’t think that Aus or NZ are ready for a bubble with that level of infection - far too risky.

Australia will do their own thing. They're a little less conservative than we are so I can see a bubble with SIN at some point prior to us having one.

If they do, I don't foresee it changing anything for us. The Tasman bubble was opened with this potentially happening at some point. NZ is just going to watch the status of Australia closely.

NZ and SIN won't form a bubble at all. SIN does not hold the same elimination strategy as we do. Irrelevant on whether their approach is right or wrong, working or not. The Labor government has ruled it out.

Apart from a few mino Pacific nations (IUE etc) I don't foresee any other bubbles or border reopening before Oct-Nov and that timeframe depends on our vaccination progress, so could easily go into 2022 and I'd put my money on this right now.

For me the great unknown and the most interesting question is what's next, when and how do we reopen to the world - it's a given it'll be Summer 2022 and beyond.

Countries like SIN will likely have an easier avenue into NZ but what does it look it?

Will it be country specific such as Singapore yes, Indo a blanket no, will there be vaccination requirement and will that only apply to certain groups visa type, regions etc, will it involve negative tests and again will that be region/visa specific, will it, or could it become detailed matrix such as visitor visa's can't have been in X region/country within the last 30 days other visitors must have vaccination certs and negative tests in this scenario.

It's hard to foresee much this early but one look at the UK and it does beg the question. If we complete what we say we're going to. Is 2022 game on?

But as it stands, I'm very grateful we have the Tasman Bubble, oh and the Cooks. I'm comfortable we leave it like that for another 6-9 months.

Given we're in May. Which means group 1, 2 and 3 have become eligible for the vaccine, that's 2m people or about half the estimated eligible population. The other 2m become eligible from July (just 2 months away) would it be wrong to start putting thought into who'll return, what routes will and won't reopen.

* Firstly a small disclaimer: Yes. There's still a long, long way to go and the pandemic is still very much raging out of control in certain places around the world. I also expect 'group 3' to roll well into July and beyond, I still hear from some people group 2 isn't finished yet, even for those willing. So group 4 which starts in July will take many months to complete.

But, if we pull it off and we finish up in Jan/Feb 2022 - and if/when reopen our borders even with strict conditions of being vaccinated, only coming from approved countries and/or with requirement that you haven't been to others in X number of days - what do you expect in the way of Airlines/Routes.

Are any of the stats guru's kept a list of confirmed exits?

Looking at the Tasman Bubble, over the past few weeks the local cases in WA/NSW have not been treated the same.

WA has flights held for 72hours, then again for another 48hrs.

Yet NSW now has two community cases (same house hold) with no link yet...

Although travel on the Tasman is business as normal, with just some additional health check questions to depart SYD today.

Does New Zealand have more faith in NSW of being able to manage community cases over WA?

zkncj wrote:

Looking at the Tasman Bubble, over the past few weeks the local cases in WA/NSW have not been treated the same.

WA has flights held for 72hours, then again for another 48hrs.

Yet NSW now has two community cases (same house hold) with no link yet...

Although travel on the Tasman is business as normal, with just some additional health check questions to depart SYD today.

Does New Zealand have more faith in NSW of being able to manage community cases over WA?

I think it was more a reaction to WA going into almost instant lockdown itself. NSW certainly only applied the restrictions to people arriving from WA that they would have had to follow had they remained in WA.

NSW is bringing masks for non-home indoors and a few other high level restrictions back in Greater Sydney until Sunday at this stage. The source of the infection is known (a returnee from the USA who has been in health quarantine since 26/4), but not the source of transmission between that individual and the cases announced yesterday.

https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ198/279f3c54

Anyone know how HBA is going? todays flight is operated by ZK-NNE which is an A321NEO.
Pretty impressive if they have had to increase it o an A321NEO already.

First flight was NNA too so might be doing well.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-quarantine-free-travel-with-new-south-wales-on-hold/PFYBWSQN6BJJRILSRQU65M4KW4/

NSW flights on hold for the next 48hours from Midnight.

zkncj wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-quarantine-free-travel-with-new-south-wales-on-hold/PFYBWSQN6BJJRILSRQU65M4KW4/

NSW flights on hold for the next 48hours from Midnight.

Is there any more detail from that side of the ditch? The reporting in Stuff seemed to suggest flights were continuing with additional pre-boarding questioning only, but perhaps that's only flights until midnight tonight?

zkncj wrote:

Does New Zealand have more faith in NSW of being able to manage community cases over WA?

I'm not saying that this is the actual reason, but NSW has had more cases and thus has more experience in contact tracing than WA. WA went quite a few months with no cases at all and thus their contract tracers wouldn't have had a lot to do and may have gotten rusty. A peculiar paradigm whereby the states that don't do as well controlling the virus will inevitably have more experience (and thus be better?) at contract tracing.

Anyway, with the bubble paused this probably becomes a moot point.

NZ516 wrote:

First flight was NNA too so might be doing well.

For marketing purposes they would have used NNA, maybe some additional local media on board. The A320/321 is interchangeable but I’ve got no idea on loads.

zkojq wrote:

zkncj wrote:

Does New Zealand have more faith in NSW of being able to manage community cases over WA?

I'm not saying that this is the actual reason, but NSW has had more cases and thus has more experience in contact tracing than WA. WA went quite a few months with no cases at all and thus their contract tracers wouldn't have had a lot to do and may have gotten rusty. A peculiar paradigm whereby the states that don't do as well controlling the virus will inevitably have more experience (and thus be better?) at contract tracing.

Anyway, with the bubble paused this probably becomes a moot point.

I'd probably characterise it as the states with greater experience in trying to run managed quarantine (noting that NSW is he only state with a continuous program and has managed around 3/4 of returnees), but I take your point that experience counts.

Hopefully flights can recommence on Sunday.

zkncj wrote:

https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ198/279f3c54

Anyone know how HBA is going? todays flight is operated by ZK-NNE which is an A321NEO.
Pretty impressive if they have had to increase it o an A321NEO already.

Yesterday NZ197 / NZ198 was showing as ZK-OJB, which went to IUE today instead. It could just be a late change due to aircraft availability. ZK-OJF appears to be in end of lease maintenance, so only three regional 320s now.

PA515

Kent350787 wrote:

zkncj wrote:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-quarantine-free-travel-with-new-south-wales-on-hold/PFYBWSQN6BJJRILSRQU65M4KW4/

NSW flights on hold for the next 48hours from Midnight.

Is there any more detail from that side of the ditch? The reporting in Stuff seemed to suggest flights were continuing with additional pre-boarding questioning only, but perhaps that's only flights until midnight tonight?

I have just been informed my widebody flight from AKL to SYD tomorrow (Friday) will continue to operate which is great news.

Was thinking about rerouting via MEL or BNE as their is currently no flight restriction within Australia. I guess they will just fly the plane back empty with cargo only.

Air NZ ATR72-500 ZK-MCY (msn 703) had a test flight from CHC yesterday afternoon and will position CHC-AKL as NZ5994 at 1300 today.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-mcy

PA515

The border is shut from NZs perspective, not NSWs. Hence passengers to SYD not from. NZ101 ccld, NZ103 full, but positioning back empty. CHC WLG ZQN all canceled.

Yesterdays NSW bubble closer must of had bit of impact on bookings, just seen AKL-OOL come up on grabaseat for $105..

No, finally Air NZ releasing some short term promotional fares. On sale until 11May.
I have not undersood why they did heavily discount the fares when the borders opened just to creat some excitement. This is an off-peak period until July school holidays - think they thought that they would get the VFR traffic that really wanted to travel and so offeted just the normal higher fares. They should have jumped in immediately with really cheap fares with very tight inventory control. Its amazing how price overcomes peoples reluctance to travel. I still remember how HKG recovered very quickly after SARS after CX priced very competitively.

Kiwings wrote:

No, finally Air NZ releasing some short term promotional fares. On sale until 11May.
I have not undersood why they did heavily discount the fares when the borders opened just to creat some excitement. This is an off-peak period until July school holidays - think they thought that they would get the VFR traffic that really wanted to travel and so offeted just the normal higher fares. They should have jumped in immediately with really cheap fares with very tight inventory control. Its amazing how price overcomes peoples reluctance to travel. I still remember how HKG recovered very quickly after SARS after CX priced very competitively.

QF started it last night sending out an email at 6:45pm, post the Sydney 48hour bubble pause with there love Australia sale. QF is doing AKL-OOL for $349rtn, I suspect this route isn’t doing to well for them...

I had just upgraded some of my The Works tickets to PE/Bussiness class today. One flight to BNE I got an $40 refund! For upgrading to PE.

PA515 wrote:

Air NZ ATR72-500 ZK-MCY (msn 703) had a test flight from CHC yesterday afternoon and will position CHC-AKL as NZ5994 at 1300 today.

PA515

Should be off to Europe next week.

Raglan Aerodrome will get a 1.2 m fence to stop beach access across the runway. For health and safety reasons there has been 3 near misses in the last year.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12503571 ... and-safety

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... ford-sound?

This will have serious implications for NZ’s domestic and (especially) international networks. And almost certainly will kill any prospect of an airport being developed at Tarras. I sincerely hope that it doesn’t end up limiting the ability of NZers to travel locally by pricing them out of the market for many attractions.

Having said that, it was almost inevitable that something had to give, as the idea of the number of planeloads of visitors continuing to increase exponentially was surely unsustainable. But government’s plans to actually reduce international visitors in the interests of protecting places like Queenstown, Wanaka and Milford Sound puts things into a stark reality. Fewer visitors surely means fewer flights and a smaller NZ international fleet. Possibly even fewer international carriers operating here.

As an avgeek I’m naturally disappointed, but as someone who finds Queenstown already vastly overtouristed and an unpleasant place to be, I’m hardly surprised. And with the probability that flight shaming will become a “thing” in these parts sooner or later, the aviation landscape may be quite different in future. It may be that 2019-20 turns out to be the peak year for NZ’s Asian and North American networks.

I wouldn't take too much notice of the current Minister of Tourism - he made some rather naive statements when he first became Minister. Governments and policies change over time so what is said today may not happen in 2 or 3 years time when a new Govt. or Minister takes over. Having said that NZ does have to look at the "high value" tourist and not go for numbers that inevitably ruins the attractiveness of the destination. So maybe less tourists from some markets which have grown very fast in recent years. Interestingly I understand the backpacker market is a fairly high spend market - not so much on accommodation but on activities.

So within the next couple of hours we should find out if the NSW bubble ban is lifted.

Personally I can’t see if being extended, if they want to maintain any credibility to the bubble.

3x bubble pauses in the first 2 weeks, have to have damaged the bubbles reputation. If you were basses in Australia would you really plan an holiday to New Zealand now? It’s more risky than trip to QLD or WA.

I really think we could on handled this one better, it should of been getting an COVID test on arrival and isolate for 48hrs or until you get an negative Covid test. Provided you haven’t been to any hotspots in Sydney.

With this latest outbreak, not an single state in Australia has closed there boarders to NSW.

NZ516 wrote:

Raglan Aerodrome will get a 1.2 m fence to stop beach access across the runway. For health and safety reasons there has been 3 near misses in the last year.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12503571 ... and-safety

There's been far more than that. I had close ones when I flew in.

LamboAston wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

Raglan Aerodrome will get a 1.2 m fence to stop beach access across the runway. For health and safety reasons there has been 3 near misses in the last year.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12503571 ... and-safety

There's been far more than that. I had close ones when I flew in.

I find the locals' attitude to safety at the airfield absolutely appalling. They really do need to get real!

DavidByrne wrote:

LamboAston wrote:

NZ516 wrote:

Raglan Aerodrome will get a 1.2 m fence to stop beach access across the runway. For health and safety reasons there has been 3 near misses in the last year.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/12503571 ... and-safety

There's been far more than that. I had close ones when I flew in.

I find the locals' attitude to safety at the airfield absolutely appalling. They really do need to get real!

I made the point of a full power ground run to blow away some people crossing the airfield.

Same issue at Pauanui often, from golf course to lunch.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-sydney-flight-bubble-to-resume-on-sunday/R4FOLJA6LATLCT7LY7ZFMITP5M/

Bubble with NSW to resume at Midnight tonight, so flights from Sunday will be allowed back into New Zealand.

Edit: the NZH and Stuff seem to contradict each other, the Hearld says from Sunday, but Stuff is saying from 11:59pm on Sunday....

That article should read "NZ Govt trying to wean the country off tourism and air travel in general."

Their interpretation of backpackers is outdated, long gone are the days of backpacker hostels for $10 a night and pot noodles from the supermarket, couch surfing and hitchhiking. The numbers that still do this have long since dwindled in many countries. Independent tourist is a far more appropriate term for the modern world, and it is a diverse group of self-employed/retirees/couples/families/students and anyone with the means to take an extended overseas trip (and how much they spend is dependent on how long they have budgeted to be away). The common denominator is that they are self-booked/organized and self-sufficient and looking for the best experiences they can afford, not necessarily the best services, so they tend to book locally rather than prepay everything using international chains. They pay for things like Balloon rides over the Serengeti/ culinary courses/river rafting/cruises and other things they perceive as 'unique' to that nation they are visiting ie If they drop $500-1000 on a single activity/day budget, they will compensate by saving somewhere else on something they don't care much about (like 3-star hotel instead of 4-5) in order for them to keep to a self-imposed daily budget limit. On one day they might spend $100, on another day they might spend $1000+.

Forcing these people out to target fewer tourists will do nothing except make it all but impossible for airlines to fly to New Zealand. It is hard to fill an aeroplane like a 787/A350 when you just focus on the top percentile of travellers and when you can't fill but a smaller aircraft cannot be used long-haul what is the motivation for an airline to serve AKL. Fewer flights - less export/import space for our industries, less ability to generate business, wealth and taxation, less ability for kiwis to travel abroad. A country requires economics of scale for investment and more. If the returns on NZ infrastructure are not there, those investors will go somewhere they are valued and we will all lose out. If the consumer cost/airfare is uncompetitive, they won't come here at all, they will go somewhere they can spend how/what they like for as long as they want to visit and we as a country will all lose out - tourist towns or not.

Entire chunks of the country could shut down and empty, local community populations will plummet further, AKL will burgeon as they try to find work and there will be no rates money to pay for infrastructure and local services for anywhere else for those that remain. The only reason some places are not irrelevant boarded up backwaters as you see off Route 66 in the USA is because of international tourism. We can only hope that the more this kind of thing is publicised the more chance we will have to knock out these champagne socialists from power. They really do not care what happens to any of us, they would gladly have us all suffer in order to enact their misguided policies and increase reliance on the state for everything

aerorobnz wrote:

That article should read "NZ Govt trying to wean the country off tourism and air travel in general."

Their interpretation of backpackers is outdated, long gone are the days of backpacker hostels for $10 a night and pot noodles from the supermarket, couch surfing and hitchhiking. The numbers that still do this have long since dwindled in many countries. Independent tourist is a far more appropriate term for the modern world, and it is a diverse group of self-employed/retirees/couples/families/students and anyone with the means to take an extended overseas trip (and how much they spend is dependent on how long they have budgeted to be away). The common denominator is that they are self-booked/organized and self-sufficient and looking for the best experiences they can afford, not necessarily the best services, so they tend to book locally rather than prepay everything using international chains. They pay for things like Balloon rides over the Serengeti/ culinary courses/river rafting/cruises and other things they perceive as 'unique' to that nation they are visiting ie If they drop $500-1000 on a single activity/day budget, they will compensate by saving somewhere else on something they don't care much about (like 3-star hotel instead of 4-5) in order for them to keep to a self-imposed daily budget limit. On one day they might spend $100, on another day they might spend $1000+.

Forcing these people out to target fewer tourists will do nothing except make it all but impossible for airlines to fly to New Zealand. It is hard to fill an aeroplane like a 787/A350 when you just focus on the top percentile of travellers and when you can't fill but a smaller aircraft cannot be used long-haul what is the motivation for an airline to serve AKL. Fewer flights - less export/import space for our industries, less ability to generate business, wealth and taxation, less ability for kiwis to travel abroad. A country requires economics of scale for investment and more. If the returns on NZ infrastructure are not there, those investors will go somewhere they are valued and we will all lose out. If the consumer cost/airfare is uncompetitive, they won't come here at all, they will go somewhere they can spend how/what they like for as long as they want to visit and we as a country will all lose out - tourist towns or not.

Entire chunks of the country could shut down and empty, local community populations will plummet further, AKL will burgeon as they try to find work and there will be no rates money to pay for infrastructure and local services for anywhere else for those that remain. The only reason some places are not irrelevant boarded up backwaters as you see off Route 66 in the USA is because of international tourism. We can only hope that the more this kind of thing is publicised the more chance we will have to knock out these champagne socialists from power. They really do not care what happens to any of us, they would gladly have us all suffer in order to enact their misguided policies and increase reliance on the state for everything

100% agree! That middle market is massive market to New Zealand, and as you say often the ones that will pay for the experiences that fit there budget and there taste rather than going along with the generic gold plated tours.

If anything the middle market travellers probably are more of an bonus to our economy, sure they probably aren’t going to speed $200 on an bottle of wine. Yet they are going to spend that $200 across 2-5 small businesses around New Zealand. Someone spending $200 on an bottle of wine with dinner is really only going to benefit one small business.

aerorobnz wrote:

Entire chunks of the country could shut down and empty, local community populations will plummet further, AKL will burgeon as they try to find work and there will be no rates money to pay for infrastructure and local services for anywhere else for those that remain. The only reason some places are not irrelevant boarded up backwaters as you see off Route 66 in the USA is because of international tourism. We can only hope that the more this kind of thing is publicised the more chance we will have to knock out these champagne socialists from power. They really do not care what happens to any of us, they would gladly have us all suffer in order to enact their misguided policies and increase reliance on the state for everything

I think you’re being rather overdramatic and over-politicising the issue. Many tourist towns are already unpleasant places and the locals quite ambivalent about tourism as a consequence. And I don’t think you enhance your argument by trash-talking the government either. Quite apart from the fact that it’s opinion based on no evidence.

Slightly old article from last month but positive news on Invercargill airport and the Southland recovery.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinatio ... 9-pandemic

PA515 wrote:

Air NZ ATR72-500 ZK-MCY (msn 703) had a test flight from CHC yesterday afternoon and will position CHC-AKL as NZ5994 at 1300 today.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zk-mcy

PA515

We still have 3 more ATR72-500s on the post ramp in CHC
ZK-MCU,. ZK-MCJ and ZK-MCB. Waiting for sale I presume.

SXI899 wrote:

PA515 wrote:

Air NZ ATR72-500 ZK-MCY (msn 703) had a test flight from CHC yesterday afternoon and will position CHC-AKL as NZ5994 at 1300 today.

PA515

Should be off to Europe next week.

Thanks Yorden. ZK-MCC went to Toulouse, Francazal, possibly for freighter conversion. Is that where ZK-MCY is going?

NZ516 wrote:

We still have 3 more ATR72-500s on the post ramp in CHC
ZK-MCU,. ZK-MCJ and ZK-MCB. Waiting for sale I presume.

Pretty sure they have all been sold. ZK-MCB and ZK-MCY were the last two listed for sale, ZK-MCB for USD2.9M needing a 'C' check and ZK-MCY USD4.9M 'C' check done. ZK-MCP must be in a hanger at CHC if it's not outside. I thought Air Chathams were getting a few more.

PA515

Not sure about Air Chatams second ATR the deal might have fallen through. So MCU and MCJ have sold as well but waiting on delivery to a new owner.

ZK-MCY departed AKL this evening at 1706 NZST as SXI2117 and arrived BNE at 2053 AEST.

https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/ZKMCY

PA515

NZ6 wrote:

Given we're in May. Which means group 1, 2 and 3 have become eligible for the vaccine, that's 2m people or about half the estimated eligible population. The other 2m become eligible from July (just 2 months away) would it be wrong to start putting thought into who'll return, what routes will and won't reopen.

* Firstly a small disclaimer: Yes. There's still a long, long way to go and the pandemic is still very much raging out of control in certain places around the world. I also expect 'group 3' to roll well into July and beyond, I still hear from some people group 2 isn't finished yet, even for those willing. So group 4 which starts in July will take many months to complete.

But, if we pull it off and we finish up in Jan/Feb 2022 - and if/when reopen our borders even with strict conditions of being vaccinated, only coming from approved countries and/or with requirement that you haven't been to others in X number of days - what do you expect in the way of Airlines/Routes.

Are any of the stats guru's kept a list of confirmed exits?

okay no body took the bait.

Work is underway to start getting the 77W fleet in the sky (not all initially) and this takes some time anyway. There's also is a small chance some safe zone long haul flights could resume this year. I also understand the government are across this, of course it's also subject to etc but signs are promising and if things continue as they are.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industri ... t-decision

Wanaka to remain a small airport for the time being.

NZ6 wrote:

NZ6 wrote:

Given we're in May. Which means group 1, 2 and 3 have become eligible for the vaccine, that's 2m people or about half the estimated eligible population. The other 2m become eligible from July (just 2 months away) would it be wrong to start putting thought into who'll return, what routes will and won't reopen.

* Firstly a small disclaimer: Yes. There's still a long, long way to go and the pandemic is still very much raging out of control in certain places around the world. I also expect 'group 3' to roll well into July and beyond, I still hear from some people group 2 isn't finished yet, even for those willing. So group 4 which starts in July will take many months to complete.

But, if we pull it off and we finish up in Jan/Feb 2022 - and if/when reopen our borders even with strict conditions of being vaccinated, only coming from approved countries and/or with requirement that you haven't been to others in X number of days - what do you expect in the way of Airlines/Routes.

Are any of the stats guru's kept a list of confirmed exits?

okay no body took the bait.

Work is underway to start getting the 77W fleet in the sky (not all initially) and this takes some time anyway. There's also is a small chance some safe zone long haul flights could resume this year. I also understand the government are across this, of course it's also subject to etc but signs are promising and if things continue as they are.

Well this is good to hear. Plus the 777s coming back into service. Presumedly the 3 at AKL now will come back first. The 787 fleet is fairly busy now.
Regarding more safe zones we certainly should open up to other countries like Taiwan etc. Plus more later in the year.

Yes,there is a rumour that NZ do want to start NYC at the end of the year with the 77W.

Kiwings wrote:

Yes,there is a rumour that NZ do want to start NYC at the end of the year with the 77W.

LOL, there's a rumour for just about everything... I'll believe this one when I see the first flight actually land at EWR.

They'll need to get LAX and SFO back to normal(ish) first, then rebuild YVR, IAH, and ORD. I certainly don't see EWR this year, nor do I see it with their largest aircraft, the pre-covid plan was to start with a code 2 789.

Only yesterday Chris Hipkins stated that it was "unlikely" for the country to see "significant" volumes of international travel before the end of the year.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... early-2022

Totally agree on rumours, but there could be sense in getting NYC going early - propensity to travel to safer destinations (NZ) from a market that has a good size of higher end traffic may be worth pursuing - that is if the border does open for vaccinated pax.

The next safe zones will no doubt not be the US. I would count ourselves lucky if we could go to Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, etc) by the end of the year. China presents a massive opportunity from a business point of view and is safe but not sure if the government is willing. Opening to the US would mean the end of elimination strategy and doing that would jeopardise the trans Tasman bubble given the Australia government is looking at mid 2022. I am surprised to see the 77W back so soon. Wouldn't they be too big for potential Asian bubbles?

Kiwiandrew wrote:

Kiwings wrote:

Yes,there is a rumour that NZ do want to start NYC at the end of the year with the 77W.

They'll need to get LAX and SFO back to normal(ish) first, then rebuild YVR, IAH, and ORD. I certainly don't see EWR this year, nor do I see it with their largest aircraft, the pre-covid plan was to start with a code 2 789.

Why so? Is that because it's traditionally been the hub?

Kiwiandrew wrote:

Kiwings wrote:

Yes,there is a rumour that NZ do want to start NYC at the end of the year with the 77W.

Only yesterday Chris Hipkins stated that it was "unlikely" for the country to see "significant" volumes of international travel before the end of the year.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... early-2022

The government is also a very conservative one and have been reluctant to promise anything surrounding timeframes on the border. irrespective, his statement will still be correct in the grand scheme of things if you were to compare pre COVID with what could happen this year.

xiaotung wrote:

The next safe zones will no doubt not be the US. I would count ourselves lucky if we could go to Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, etc) by the end of the year. China presents a massive opportunity from a business point of view and is safe but not sure if the government is willing. Opening to the US would mean the end of elimination strategy and doing that would jeopardise the trans Tasman bubble given the Australia government is looking at mid 2022. I am surprised to see the 77W back so soon. Wouldn't they be too big for potential Asian bubbles?

Elimination will continue to be our strategy, but once we reach of point of heard immunity does this change? How does it then stack up comparing two countries with heard immunity status?

NZ6 wrote:

xiaotung wrote:

The next safe zones will no doubt not be the US. I would count ourselves lucky if we could go to Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, etc) by the end of the year. China presents a massive opportunity from a business point of view and is safe but not sure if the government is willing. Opening to the US would mean the end of elimination strategy and doing that would jeopardise the trans Tasman bubble given the Australia government is looking at mid 2022. I am surprised to see the 77W back so soon. Wouldn't they be too big for potential Asian bubbles?

Elimination will continue to be our strategy, but once we reach of point of heard immunity does this change? How does it then stack up comparing two countries with heard immunity status?

It's going to have to change, isn't it? The point of reaching herd immunity is to accept limited community transmission that can't harm the majority of the population and the health care system. There is currently no conclusive evidence that vaccinated people won't carry the virus and transmit to others, at least not yet. Not to mention these vaccines are not 100% effective.

I am not so sure the elinination strategy will last that much longer. Once the bulk of people are vaccinated the govt. will have to change this policy. Unfortunately fear has been used and not sure how you change peoples perceptions to acceptance. This can not last forever - covid will have to be allowed to enter at some point. It will become no different than flu.

xiaotung wrote:

NZ6 wrote:

xiaotung wrote:

The next safe zones will no doubt not be the US. I would count ourselves lucky if we could go to Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, etc) by the end of the year. China presents a massive opportunity from a business point of view and is safe but not sure if the government is willing. Opening to the US would mean the end of elimination strategy and doing that would jeopardise the trans Tasman bubble given the Australia government is looking at mid 2022. I am surprised to see the 77W back so soon. Wouldn't they be too big for potential Asian bubbles?

Elimination will continue to be our strategy, but once we reach of point of heard immunity does this change? How does it then stack up comparing two countries with heard immunity status?

It's going to have to change, isn't it? The point of reaching herd immunity is to accept limited community transmission that can't harm the majority of the population and the health care system. There is currently no conclusive evidence that vaccinated people won't carry the virus and transmit to others, at least not yet. Not to mention these vaccines are not 100% effective.

When you say conclusive evidence, what's the UK? Early January tipping at 68,000+ cases (8th) & a 7-day rolling average of 59,000. Now that's around 2,000, which is a 96% reduction...

If you want scientific data, preliminary reports suggest that's the case too but final findings are not released. Although excepted to support this.

NZ6 wrote:

xiaotung wrote:

NZ6 wrote:

Elimination will continue to be our strategy, but once we reach of point of heard immunity does this change? How does it then stack up comparing two countries with heard immunity status?

It's going to have to change, isn't it? The point of reaching herd immunity is to accept limited community transmission that can't harm the majority of the population and the health care system. There is currently no conclusive evidence that vaccinated people won't carry the virus and transmit to others, at least not yet. Not to mention these vaccines are not 100% effective.

When you say conclusive evidence, what's the UK? Early January tipping at 68,000+ cases (8th) & a 7-day rolling average of 59,000. Now that's around 2,000, which is a 96% reduction...

If you want scientific data, preliminary reports suggest that's the case too but final findings are not released. Although excepted to support this.

Yes, if you don't have an elimination strategy, that's all good news. But what I am concerned about is both Aus and NZ are countries that lock down for daily cases in the single digit. From what I have heard in the US, they are preparing for a 3rd booster shot in a year's time which means they are anticipating the efficacy rate of current vaccines may be declining with all the mutants around. There are also considerable number of people who will outright refuse vaccines. These people will continue to carry and transmit the virus to people who are even vaccinated when the efficacy goes down. So by all accounts COVID-19 is not going away. How long can we close the borders for?