xiaotung wrote:NZ6 wrote:xiaotung wrote:
It's going to have to change, isn't it? The point of reaching herd immunity is to accept limited community transmission that can't harm the majority of the population and the health care system. There is currently no conclusive evidence that vaccinated people won't carry the virus and transmit to others, at least not yet. Not to mention these vaccines are not 100% effective.
When you say conclusive evidence, what's the UK? Early January tipping at 68,000+ cases (8th) & a 7-day rolling average of 59,000. Now that's around 2,000, which is a 96% reduction...
If you want scientific data, preliminary reports suggest that's the case too but final findings are not released. Although excepted to support this.
Yes, if you don't have an elimination strategy, that's all good news. But what I am concerned about is both Aus and NZ are countries that lock down for daily cases in the single digit. From what I have heard in the US, they are preparing for a 3rd booster shot in a year's time which means they are anticipating the efficacy rate of current vaccines may be declining with all the mutants around. There are also considerable number of people who will outright refuse vaccines. These people will continue to carry and transmit the virus to people who are even vaccinated when the efficacy goes down. So by all accounts COVID-19 is not going away. How long can we close the borders for?
How long can we close the borders for?
Until there is a demonstrably better strategy.
The Australasian elimination strategy has served both countries extraordinarily well, until something proved better comes along.
It is significant that the official initial Federal Australian position was considerably less less conservative, flatten curve only, until their much more conservative State Government response of elimination has proved to be so spectacularly successful, so that now the Federal Government is talking about border restrictions until mid 2022.
The NZ Government is under little pressure to depart from it's very successful conservative covid approach until evidence is available to support any further relaxation of controls, controls that have been incredibly successful to date, in reducing covid harm in NZ.
As the situation is so quickly changing overseas with the vaccination program and new mutations, such evidence is rapidly becoming available.