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DavidByrne
Posts: 1916
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 31, 2021 9:10 am

77west wrote:
I don't think Britomart can take Diesel powered trains anymore. Strand station is the closest to the CBD and they have said they are looking at operating to Strand late 2021/early2022

But only on weekend services, alas. Otherwise, line capacity issues get in the way.
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 1141
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 31, 2021 10:01 am

a7ala wrote:
ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:

You might still have peak HLZ-WLG and HLZ-CHC flights. But outside of that they will diminish as land transport improves. Like if you built a proper high speed rail connection to connect Auckland and Wellington in a few hours you'd effectively destroy WLG as an international airport. In the true long term I expect NZ to cut back to two major commercial airports, one for each island. With smaller airports/airstrips for the occasional point to point service or local/regional use. But that timeframe is decades+ and probably beyond our current lifespans.


I doubt it - even with a high speed rail (where there is absolutely zero chance in the next 100 years) getting traffic from Wellington explain to me why anyone would use the train to AKL to fly to SYD/MEL/BNE when non-stop services exist? The better surface connection argument (such as HLZ-AKL or PMR-WLG) only works when the regional port (HLZ or PMR) cant sustain their own services at a reasonable and comparable cost to the other airport (AKL or WLG). This is definitely not the case for WLG. How cheap do you expect international flights from AKL to become compared with WLG to encourage this inefficient behaviour?

And as for your argument of two main airports in New Zealand - again I just dont get it. So Wellingtonians will fly WLG-AKL-NPE or WLG-CHC-NSN? Are you suggesting that because the roads are so good a person that is currently flying TRG-TIU via WLG will instead drive TRG-AKL then fly AKL-CHC to then drive CHC-TIU? Sorry maybe I'm not understanding what you are suggesting.


I probably wasn't clear enough then. :)

I'm not thinking so much that we end up with only two airports. More that we will end up with two airports that do international traffic. In the medium term I expect battery electric will become standard for the sort of short haul stuff that is done domestically. And at some point I also expect kerosene to start being taxed to account for the climate damage that's currently ignored which will likely encourage concentration of hyrdrocarbon powered aircraft at hubs. Now some of this is probably wishful thinking, but I do think at least some of it will happen.
More likely we'll continue to see commercial passenger aircraft operations be focused at fewer larger regional airports as land transport improves. Though the wildcard could be battery electric aircraft for doing regional hops into larger centers.

As for true high speed rail. I can only think of one single path that would ever make sense. Wellington to Auckland via Palmy, Taupo/Rotorua, and Hamilton. So yeah, I agree the chance of it happening is probably sweet bugger all. :( Much more likely and much more needed is higher speed regional rail. With some major investment we can get rail going on cape gauge up to 160kph which would probably destroy some of the regional routes.
 
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77west
Posts: 1015
Joined: Sat Jun 13, 2009 11:52 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 31, 2021 10:39 am

I personally believe I wont live to see rapid rail outside of maybe an upgraded HLZ-AKL line using cape gauge 100-160kph and im 35. Would love to be proved wrong but I think maybe in 100 years time they may start the working groups on this... The same goes for battery regional. I don't see that becoming a certified reliable commercial possibility for at least another 25-50 years.
 
NZ516
Posts: 726
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 31, 2021 5:13 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
77west wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Yes, the direct train/bus connection to AKL soon to be possible via Puhinui may make a dent in HLZ development. Even when hourly in future years (which is a strong possibility) however, I don’t think it will eliminate the need for and use of HLZ. It will still be a little under two hours from Frankton to AKL. Even with the dual carriageway road, travel time to and from Hamilton is not reliable. It only takes a small “incident” and driving time can balloon way out, with diversions in place through the Waikato hinterland. As I’ve found out myself twice, quite recently, missing an appointment I thought I’d allowed ample travel time for with a buffer as well. Ultimately, IMO, HLZ will surely get a jet service of some sort to CHC at least.


It shouldn't be too hard to rotate an A320 through CHC-HLZ-CHC to avoid any positioning flights. AVSEC might be the issue though, not sure if HLZ has the equipment anymore.


That would be easy to do with an A320, what is the current ATR frequency HLZ-CHC?


The current ATR frequency CHC to HLZ is 5 flights a day. But it's hard to get a seat as its often full up. So many would have to transit via WLG to get up. If there was a A320 non stop service which could enable some more seats and some lower fares it would be a huge bonus for everyone.
 
NZ516
Posts: 726
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 31, 2021 5:44 pm

NZ6 wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
If ANZ really wanted a smaller jet, i think they would go with the A319, rather than adding the more economical A220. A small fleet wouldn't add significant cost, unlike a new type.

If they wanted to do it cheaply - second hand A319s are plentiful and could be leased or bought far cheaper than the A220.


Like others have said, it's no cheaper to operate than a A320 so better off just using them. I think the bottom line here is there's just not enough potential routes for regional jets.

Sectors like AKL-PMR are short, frequency keeps competition away and the ATR's are cheap to run. Sectors like NPL-CHC, NPE-CHC, TRG-CHC are small in regard to patronage, so on a regional jet 2x daily would get squeezed into 1 daily. Then the fact that there's not many of them so any sub-fleet would be small and costly. Sectors like ROT-CHC, AKL-IVC, WLG-DUD which could scale down to a regional jet can do okay with the A320.

I'd like something, I just wish there was a Q500 or ATR92


There is a few more potential routes they could consider for a Regional jet, if you add in the International ones as well. So a fleet could grow to 12 or more in a major expansion plan.
So Domestic
AKL IVC twice daily replacing the single 320
AKL NSN
CHC ROT
CHC ZQN
CHC HLZ
ZQN HLZ
WLG HLZ
Plus International
AKL CBR daily
AKL NTL
AKL TSV
AKL DRW
AKL CNS off peak season
AKL MCY same
AKL HBA daily

All Australian state capitals will have a service to AKL NZs largest city and main hub.
 
NZ516
Posts: 726
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 31, 2021 8:13 pm

https://simpleflying.com/air-new-zealan ... 1-updates/

This is a good rebound in traffic for Air NZ but still challenges lie ahead and load factors of 45% are not profitable surely
 
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qf789
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 31, 2021 8:15 pm

Please continue discussion in New Zealand Aviation Thread- June 2021

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1461357
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