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Toenga
Posts: 185
Joined: Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:55 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 6:14 am

xiaotung wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
xiaotung wrote:

It's going to have to change, isn't it? The point of reaching herd immunity is to accept limited community transmission that can't harm the majority of the population and the health care system. There is currently no conclusive evidence that vaccinated people won't carry the virus and transmit to others, at least not yet. Not to mention these vaccines are not 100% effective.


When you say conclusive evidence, what's the UK? Early January tipping at 68,000+ cases (8th) & a 7-day rolling average of 59,000. Now that's around 2,000, which is a 96% reduction...

If you want scientific data, preliminary reports suggest that's the case too but final findings are not released. Although excepted to support this.


Yes, if you don't have an elimination strategy, that's all good news. But what I am concerned about is both Aus and NZ are countries that lock down for daily cases in the single digit. From what I have heard in the US, they are preparing for a 3rd booster shot in a year's time which means they are anticipating the efficacy rate of current vaccines may be declining with all the mutants around. There are also considerable number of people who will outright refuse vaccines. These people will continue to carry and transmit the virus to people who are even vaccinated when the efficacy goes down. So by all accounts COVID-19 is not going away. How long can we close the borders for?


How long can we close the borders for?
Until there is a demonstrably better strategy.
The Australasian elimination strategy has served both countries extraordinarily well, until something proved better comes along.
It is significant that the official initial Federal Australian position was considerably less less conservative, flatten curve only, until their much more conservative State Government response of elimination has proved to be so spectacularly successful, so that now the Federal Government is talking about border restrictions until mid 2022.
The NZ Government is under little pressure to depart from it's very successful conservative covid approach until evidence is available to support any further relaxation of controls, controls that have been incredibly successful to date, in reducing covid harm in NZ.
As the situation is so quickly changing overseas with the vaccination program and new mutations, such evidence is rapidly becoming available.
 
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Kiwings
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 7:37 am

I don't understand why so many people seem to have blindly accepted this elimination strategy without seeming to realise that sooner or later this will have to change.
Interesting that here is one of the first signs that the Gov't is starting to try to change peoples expectations. I think Hipkins also made similar comments yesterday.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/30030 ... he-bubbles

Covid will be allowed to enter the country at some stage - once 75% - 80% of the population is vaccinated.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 8:01 am

xiaotung wrote:
The next safe zones will no doubt not be the US. I would count ourselves lucky if we could go to Asia (Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, etc) by the end of the year. China presents a massive opportunity from a business point of view and is safe but not sure if the government is willing. Opening to the US would mean the end of elimination strategy and doing that would jeopardise the trans Tasman bubble given the Australia government is looking at mid 2022. I am surprised to see the 77W back so soon. Wouldn't they be too big for potential Asian bubbles?


Singapore has to be the likely next bubble, as Australia has already started talks sing Singapore two. Hopefully making it into an three way bubble which would be things an whole lot simpler.

I do think China could follow soon after, they have done pretty well in recent times. Add to that we are wanting to keep our Friendship with China, allot more that our traditional western friends at the moment. It would almost bit fitting that we went with an China bubble next.
 
Toenga
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 8:03 am

Kiwings wrote:
I don't understand why so many people seem to have blindly accepted this elimination strategy without seeming to realise that sooner or later this will have to change.
Interesting that here is one of the first signs that the Gov't is starting to try to change peoples expectations. I think Hipkins also made similar comments yesterday.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/30030 ... he-bubbles

Covid will be allowed to enter the country at some stage - once 75% - 80% of the population is vaccinated.

The elimination strategy was undoubtably the best strategy until something better came along.
Vaccination of the local population, and incoming visitors will widen options.
Still to be determined are appropriate levels for local vaccination, and appropriate infection verification controls on visitors.
I feel this will become apparent in months rather then years, but certainly not days, that some seem to be pushing for prior to our rapid accumulation of post vaccination data had been obtained worldwide.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 8:17 am

Further confirmation that Virgin will only be returning to Queenstown later this year. While all other NZ ports are on hold.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... emand.html
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 9:53 am

NZ516 wrote:
Further confirmation that Virgin will only be returning to Queenstown later this year. While all other NZ ports are on hold.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2 ... emand.html


Makes sense. VA should focus on other priorities NZ/QF/JQ are scrapping for rats and mice in a low-demand low-frequency market right now. I think they may revisit this frequently to measure if demand is picking up, but I don't expect much change for the future. As long as it remains NZ/AU carriers only, it's going to remain stagnant and expensive.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 10:18 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
Kiwings wrote:
Yes,there is a rumour that NZ do want to start NYC at the end of the year with the 77W.

LOL, there's a rumour for just about everything... I'll believe this one when I see the first flight actually land at EWR.

They'll need to get LAX and SFO back to normal(ish) first, then rebuild YVR, IAH, and ORD. I certainly don't see EWR this year, nor do I see it with their largest aircraft, the pre-covid plan was to start with a code 2 789.

Only yesterday Chris Hipkins stated that it was "unlikely" for the country to see "significant" volumes of international travel before the end of the year.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... early-2022


EWR on a 77W, that is a LOL, let’s make it complicated and have a stopover somewhere.

I do see EWR as strategically important and a good (hopefully) way of helping rebuild the US market.

I would see LAX, SFO possibly just on UA initially, possibly IAH on UA aswell and NZ metal to ORD, lower frequency and smaller aircraft than before, any talk of the 77W returning at this point is surprising to me. We will see.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 10:46 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I would see LAX, SFO possibly just on UA initially, possibly IAH on UA aswell and NZ metal to ORD, lower frequency and smaller aircraft than before, any talk of the 77W returning at this point is surprising to me. We will see.

I can’t see NZ handing over LAX to UA, even in the short term. Why would they? Why should they? After all, they’ve been operating AKL-LAX right through the pandemic - they’re surely not going to stop when the recovery starts. And why would they give up IAH to UA, when it’s a route UA has never flown? Partnership or no partnership? SFO I could see, just possibly.

Re ORD, what smaller aircraft than the 789 NZ previously operated could it use? But I agree with you re the 77W - seems illogical to me to be reactivating them when the carrier still has very significant spare capacity in its 789 fleet. If the 77Ws are being reactivated, maybe it’s for their disposal.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 11:42 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I would see LAX, SFO possibly just on UA initially, possibly IAH on UA aswell and NZ metal to ORD, lower frequency and smaller aircraft than before, any talk of the 77W returning at this point is surprising to me. We will see.

I can’t see NZ handing over LAX to UA, even in the short term. Why would they? Why should they? After all, they’ve been operating AKL-LAX right through the pandemic - they’re surely not going to stop when the recovery starts. And why would they give up IAH to UA, when it’s a route UA has never flown? Partnership or no partnership? SFO I could see, just possibly.

Re ORD, what smaller aircraft than the 789 NZ previously operated could it use? But I agree with you re the 77W - seems illogical to me to be reactivating them when the carrier still has very significant spare capacity in its 789 fleet. If the 77Ws are being reactivated, maybe it’s for their disposal.


You have miss read my poorly written post completely.

LAX NZ metal
SFO UA metal initially?
IAH UA ran SYD-IAH and CO pre merger announced AKL-IAH, probably better with NZ POS. NZ have a small fleet, UA not so small.
ORD NZ metal, obviously nothing smaller than the 789 to do this.

LAX is the only place to see that makes any sense long term or possibly in 12-18 months or so with a 77W even then 1 daily, my question is where are all the 789s going to go? With all the freight and Tasman runs now they have 3-4 spare 789s. And 781s still arriving later in 2022 at this stage.

The thing is as things recover I can see partnerships being important in using the aircraft you have well which NZ I think to be fair have done pretty well in the past.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 7:47 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
You have miss read my poorly written post completely.

Ah yes, if you add in some commas and a semicolon or so then it reads completely differently. Now it makes more sense.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
zkeoj
Posts: 1240
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 9:30 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
any talk of the 77W returning at this point is surprising to me. We will see.


Might have something to do with additional cargo capacity?
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 9:31 pm

NZ516 wrote:
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/125108251/council-halts-longterm-planning-for-wnaka-airport-accepts-high-court-decision

Wanaka to remain a small airport for the time being.


Sounds Air will be happy :-)
 
zkeoj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 9:35 pm

Kiwings wrote:
I don't understand why so many people seem to have blindly accepted this elimination strategy without seeming to realise that sooner or later this will have to change.
Interesting that here is one of the first signs that the Gov't is starting to try to change peoples expectations. I think Hipkins also made similar comments yesterday.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/30030 ... he-bubbles

Covid will be allowed to enter the country at some stage - once 75% - 80% of the population is vaccinated.


Ok, I bite:

a) so anybody who supports the elimination strategy does so "blindly", i.e. only people who don;t support it are the ones with considered opinions?
b) Of course, it won't be forever (and nobody - absolutely nobody suggested it would be)
c) The change is appropriate once we have a large portion of the population vaccinated - and that is what the government/Chris Hipkins are targeting (see your own last point)
 
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Kiwings
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Thu May 13, 2021 10:48 pm

Without getting off topic, what I have seen is alot of people have become so fearful and paranoid about this virus which I think is quite sad.
Ok, we closed the borders and avoided the problems other countries have had, but soon we are going to be left behind. The rest of the world is opening up and we are still sitting in our bubble. It has to be popped at some stage, but many peoples mindset will have to be changed.
The fact that the PM again this morning talked about opening thd border by years end is part of the softening up process.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 3:25 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
EWR on a 77W, that is a LOL, let’s make it complicated and have a stopover somewhere.

I do see EWR as strategically important and a good (hopefully) way of helping rebuild the US market.

I would see LAX, SFO possibly just on UA initially, possibly IAH on UA aswell and NZ metal to ORD, lower frequency and smaller aircraft than before, any talk of the 77W returning at this point is surprising to me. We will see.


I just want to clarify a few things.

I didn't say EWR was on the cards, I also didn't say it was with the 77W or that N.A was even on the cards. I'm also not saying they're not.

I've just said there's talk of getting the 77W back into the active fleet, this includes factors such as tech crew training. It's not just blow the dust of the tires and away we go. So, things will happen behind the scenes even though planes may not physically move for some time.

Nothing is 100% certain and it will all depend on what happens with the virus and the vaccines over the coming months.

But there is the real possibility of international flights this year. Which NZ are aiming for.

There's also been a lot of chitter chatter over the last few days about what happens post the vaccine rollout and what / when post elimination looks like. Which ties these two together.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 4:57 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
EWR on a 77W, that is a LOL, let’s make it complicated and have a stopover somewhere.

I do see EWR as strategically important and a good (hopefully) way of helping rebuild the US market.

I would see LAX, SFO possibly just on UA initially, possibly IAH on UA aswell and NZ metal to ORD, lower frequency and smaller aircraft than before, any talk of the 77W returning at this point is surprising to me. We will see.


I just want to clarify a few things.

I didn't say EWR was on the cards, I also didn't say it was with the 77W or that N.A was even on the cards. I'm also not saying they're not.

I've just said there's talk of getting the 77W back into the active fleet, this includes factors such as tech crew training. It's not just blow the dust of the tires and away we go. So, things will happen behind the scenes even though planes may not physically move for some time.

Nothing is 100% certain and it will all depend on what happens with the virus and the vaccines over the coming months.

But there is the real possibility of international flights this year. Which NZ are aiming for.

There's also been a lot of chitter chatter over the last few days about what happens post the vaccine rollout and what / when post elimination looks like. Which ties these two together.


I never said you said those things,i was responding to this.

Kiwings wrote:
Yes,there is a rumour that NZ do want to start NYC at the end of the year with the 77W.


Kiwiandrew wrote:
Kiwings wrote:
Yes,there is a rumour that NZ do want to start NYC at the end of the year with the 77W.

LOL, there's a rumour for just about everything... I'll believe this one when I see the first flight actually land at EWR.

They'll need to get LAX and SFO back to normal(ish) first, then rebuild YVR, IAH, and ORD. I certainly don't see EWR this year, nor do I see it with their largest aircraft, the pre-covid plan was to start with a code 2 789.

Only yesterday Chris Hipkins stated that it was "unlikely" for the country to see "significant" volumes of international travel before the end of the year.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zea ... early-2022


I have for some time been in the NZ will play it safe camp, mainly given the Government's previous approach which somehow seems to have changed fairly quickly this week at least in the eyes of some here, while Australia has said their borders may not open until mid 2022 partly due to the State level Governments there.

I do think when NZ opens to North America it will be a slow rebuild and on a state by state basis though the States are likely open to each other for domestic travel, Initially LAX, possibly SFO but I could see that on UA as I said above, EWR to me could be strategically important, IAH and ORD will come back at some point I wonder if before or after EWR, I wouldn't expect that until atleast late 2022 early 2023, LAX/SFO possibly a bit before, ok LAX still operates now.

Lets say the world is fully back to normal by late 2023 early 2023 travel levels won't be 2019 levels for some time, NZ will I believe have 4 781 in the fleet by then, so a peak 2023/24 season could look something like, longhaul 14x 789, 4x 781

781
LAX 14 weekly

789 code 2, 5 aircraft
EWR 3 weekly 1 aircraft
ORD 3 weekly 1 aircraft
IAH 3 weekly 1 aircraft (3 weekly UA service)
YVR 5 weekly 1.5 aircraft
SFO 3 weekly 1 aircraft (Daily UA service)

code 1, 9 aircraft
NRT 7 weekly 1 aircraft
PVG 7 weekly 1.5 aircraft
HKG 5 weekly .75 aircraft (CX 12 weekly)
SIN 7 weekly 1 aircraft (SQ 7 weekly)
TPE 5 weekly .75 aircraft
ICN 4 weekly .5 aircraft
HNL 4 weekly .5 aircraft
PER 7 weekly 1 aircraft

No new routes bar EWR, but 2 spare code 1 789 to use. Possibly KIX in NW, or the 2 code 1 to YVR and the code 2 to increase ORD/IAH/SFO.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 5:23 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
I never said you said those things,i was responding to this.


That's all good, I was just reading comments and the conversation morphing into a larger topic which is nice. I just wanted to re-clarify my original comment that's all.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 5:55 am

NZ6 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
I never said you said those things,i was responding to this.


That's all good, I was just reading comments and the conversation morphing into a larger topic which is nice. I just wanted to re-clarify my original comment that's all.


Yes that does happen, all good.

I like to speculate but not to the point that what I say becomes facts, particularly around what the future network and fleet types and usage might look like. I'm most likely wrong more often than not but I certainly enjoy the Camaraderie. I would say I try to be realistic rather than pessimistic or optimistic.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 6:50 am

If the Tasman starts to pick up in time for the summer holidays of 21/22. Along with a couple more Islands joining the bubble by then.

Then I could see the 3x 77W’s currently stored in AKL, being brought back online to serve MEL/BNE/SYD over the summer period. Or if there are any more 787 issues, I would expect the 777s to make an return.
 
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Kiwings
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 8:14 am

The one route that I suspect will not see the same frequency as pre-covid will he HKG. CX and HKG as an aviation hub and business centre has taken a real hammering due to political issues. This one will be interesting to watch.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 9:13 am

zkncj wrote:
If the Tasman starts to pick up in time for the summer holidays of 21/22. Along with a couple more Islands joining the bubble by then.

Then I could see the 3x 77W’s currently stored in AKL, being brought back online to serve MEL/BNE/SYD over the summer period. Or if there are any more 787 issues, I would expect the 777s to make an return.


It seems that maybe possible, maybe send them to LAX for additional freight uplift?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 9:57 am

Kiwings wrote:
The one route that I suspect will not see the same frequency as pre-covid will he HKG. CX and HKG as an aviation hub and business centre has taken a real hammering due to political issues. This one will be interesting to watch.


Agreed, CX will drop plenty of routes IMO mainly long haul ones I think, their success will rely on trunk long haul and regional connections.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 12:59 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ will I believe have 4 781 in the fleet by then, so a peak 2023/24 season could look something like, longhaul 14x 789, 4x 781


The first 787-10 has been converted to a 787-9 due for delivery in October 2022.

In September 2020 the Group exercised its substitution rights to convert one firm order of a Boeing 787-10 aircraft to a Boeing 787-9. The aircraft is scheduled to be delivered in the 2023 financial year.
......... one Boeing 787 aircraft deferred from September 2022 to October 2022.


https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... report.pdf (page 18)

It seems unlikely Air NZ will only have one GE 787-9, so I expect at least two more 787-10s will be converted to 787-9s. The configuration would most likely be for maximum range, a Code 3 with the new product for AKL-EWR etc.

What influence Covid-19 has on New Zealand to Europe travel itineraries is not clear, but some pax may require transit points like PER for direct entry to the UK and EU from an Aus/NZ bubble.

PA515
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 3:43 pm

I doubt NZ would cooperate with UAL on AKl-IAH as is suggested above, 3x by UAL and 3x NZ; i don't ever recall such an agreement NZ/UA. Unlike NZ & CX, for instance, who seem to be able to work together very well indeed. What do we see in future in this regard; cooperative arrangements with airlines in and outside of Star Alliance?
Plane mad!
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Fri May 14, 2021 7:40 pm

NZ321 wrote:
I doubt NZ would cooperate with UAL on AKl-IAH as is suggested above, 3x by UAL and 3x NZ; i don't ever recall such an agreement NZ/UA. Unlike NZ & CX, for instance, who seem to be able to work together very well indeed. What do we see in future in this regard; cooperative arrangements with airlines in and outside of Star Alliance?

They have in the past shared the traffic on AKL-SFO, so it’s not out of the question. But I don’t see the logic for it when neither carrier can offer a daily flight.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 2:01 am

PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ will I believe have 4 781 in the fleet by then, so a peak 2023/24 season could look something like, longhaul 14x 789, 4x 781


The first 787-10 has been converted to a 787-9 due for delivery in October 2022.

In September 2020 the Group exercised its substitution rights to convert one firm order of a Boeing 787-10 aircraft to a Boeing 787-9. The aircraft is scheduled to be delivered in the 2023 financial year.
......... one Boeing 787 aircraft deferred from September 2022 to October 2022.


https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/air ... report.pdf (page 18)

It seems unlikely Air NZ will only have one GE 787-9, so I expect at least two more 787-10s will be converted to 787-9s. The configuration would most likely be for maximum range, a Code 3 with the new product for AKL-EWR etc.

What influence Covid-19 has on New Zealand to Europe travel itineraries is not clear, but some pax may require transit points like PER for direct entry to the UK and EU from an Aus/NZ bubble.

PA515


Right yes, 1 GE 789 doesn’t seem likely long term, from what I gather the new 787s will have new cabins but they won’t convert the existing fleet yet until things get back to normal and there is some decent revenue coming in.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 2:13 am

NZ321 wrote:
I doubt NZ would cooperate with UAL on AKl-IAH as is suggested above, 3x by UAL and 3x NZ; i don't ever recall such an agreement NZ/UA. Unlike NZ & CX, for instance, who seem to be able to work together very well indeed. What do we see in future in this regard; cooperative arrangements with airlines in and outside of Star Alliance?


I’m not sure what you mean NZ and UA have worked together for 25 years since 1996. UA ran the east morning AKL-MEL on their 744 NZ ran an afternoon 762, NZ ran 744s to MEL in 1999/2000 when UA ran LAX-MEL non stop, UA ran LAX-AKL dedicated with a 744 aswell which was the first time they had an afternoon departure ex AKL, UA cut LAX-AKL and NZ cut LAX-SYD in 2003 to work with each other more. These days it’s more about P2P UA added LAX-MEL, IAH-SYD and SFO-MEL on 789s which might take traffic from NZ and yet NZ have been able to add and build AKL-IAH/ORD with EWR to follow.

CX aren’t in Star and NZ have worked with them since 2013, these deals will continue in quite sure.


DavidByrne wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
I doubt NZ would cooperate with UAL on AKl-IAH as is suggested above, 3x by UAL and 3x NZ; i don't ever recall such an agreement NZ/UA. Unlike NZ & CX, for instance, who seem to be able to work together very well indeed. What do we see in future in this regard; cooperative arrangements with airlines in and outside of Star Alliance?

They have in the past shared the traffic on AKL-SFO, so it’s not out of the question. But I don’t see the logic for it when neither carrier can offer a daily flight.


NZ offered 5 weekly AKL-SFO, and UA 3 weekly in NS 2019.

AKL-LAX both operated previously and AKL-MEL with codeshares etc. I do wonder if UA could add seasonal AKL-LAX rather than NZ increase going foward aswell.

I just think it’s reasonably logical when NZ have such a small fleet, personally I’m struggling to see where the 77W fits for NZ with more 787s arriving from 2022 and while they rebuild taking advantage of the likes of UA/SQ/CX who have larger fleets etc.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 2:29 am

ZK-NBT wrote:

I just think it’s reasonably logical when NZ have such a small fleet, personally I’m struggling to see where the 77W fits for NZ with more 787s arriving from 2022 and while they rebuild taking advantage of the likes of UA/SQ/CX who have larger fleets etc.


I have to see say, I also struggle to see a place for the 77W in the future. If LAX rebounds, yes, in due course they might be able to fill a couple of them at reasonable yields, but I'm not convinced there will be enough 777 worthy routes to justify a small fleet. It was one thing when they had a 772/77W fleet of 15 aircraft. When you reach a point where you can only fill 2 or 3 aircraft the scale is not there to support the type ( in my opinion)
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 2:56 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I just think it’s reasonably logical when NZ have such a small fleet, personally I’m struggling to see where the 77W fits for NZ with more 787s arriving from 2022 and while they rebuild taking advantage of the likes of UA/SQ/CX who have larger fleets etc.


I have to see say, I also struggle to see a place for the 77W in the future. If LAX rebounds, yes, in due course they might be able to fill a couple of them at reasonable yields, but I'm not convinced there will be enough 777 worthy routes to justify a small fleet. It was one thing when they had a 772/77W fleet of 15 aircraft. When you reach a point where you can only fill 2 or 3 aircraft the scale is not there to support the type ( in my opinion)


Yes. And I hope I’m wrong but like I said earlier in trying to be realistic, there is certainly a lot of optimism from certain people here but some of it I’ve got to say is to fill their own personal desires more than anything, I’m not trying to say that negativity either.

I would have thought they could bring future 787 orders foward if required and finance further orders in future if or when needed.

I do agree use what you have and the owned 77Ws probably aren’t worth anything given there is so much stock available for freight conversion.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 3:48 am

I am loathed to predict 'post covid' routes because realistically we are already at a point where the world is waiting for the border to open so it can determine what market there still is. The longer the border remains closed the harder it is to predict what will happen, and the more chance the market will die off to an unviable return point. or that the airlines go under before they have a chance to return. My feeling is that we will not have anything like what we think we should have for a long time, I think LA might not ever be back for example, same with PR and CA, but it is all subject to such specific timing. On the flip side, I think an airline like AC would be interested to maintain passenger connections, but as an airline, it is caught between possibly the 2 most overcautious political leaders in the developed world. in Trudeau and Ardern, so even if the markets are gagging for it they may not be able to do anything about it. UA/AA is in a good place compared to most airlines, they have begun to recover revenue with a vibrant domestic market, and a large percentage of the population vaccinated and many states back to fully open for business.

I hope everyone likes flying on QF/NZ/SQ/EK/QR. Everything else is anyone's guess.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:06 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 4:41 am

ZK-NBT wrote:


Yes. And I hope I’m wrong but like I said earlier in trying to be realistic, there is certainly a lot of optimism from certain people here but some of it I’ve got to say is to fill their own personal desires more than anything, I’m not trying to say that negativity either.

I would have thought they could bring future 787 orders foward if required and finance further orders in future if or when needed.

I do agree use what you have and the owned 77Ws probably aren’t worth anything given there is so much stock available for freight conversion.


You raise a good point about the owned aircraft. I guess it will be a matter of where they cost the least ....on the ground, or in the air, I certainly wouldn't expect them to be easy to sell any time soon.

I'd love to be proven wrong and see a rapid recovery to pre-Covid traffic levels...but I think people will be quite cautious about discretionary travel, at least over the next couple of years.

Another matter which came up again today ( https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... cine-proof ) is acceptable, internationally recognized proof of vaccination. It's all very well to say borders will open up with vaccination, but if you can't have an agreed standard of proof it may be less simple. Understandably, the priority at the moment is getting people vaccinated. But at an international level, there will need ( in my opinion) to be some verifiable and agreed standard for showing that someone has been vaccinated. The old low tech vaccination booklet is not likely to make the grade.
 
NZ6
Posts: 1803
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 6:03 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I just think it’s reasonably logical when NZ have such a small fleet, personally I’m struggling to see where the 77W fits for NZ with more 787s arriving from 2022 and while they rebuild taking advantage of the likes of UA/SQ/CX who have larger fleets etc.


I have to see say, I also struggle to see a place for the 77W in the future. If LAX rebounds, yes, in due course they might be able to fill a couple of them at reasonable yields, but I'm not convinced there will be enough 777 worthy routes to justify a small fleet. It was one thing when they had a 772/77W fleet of 15 aircraft. When you reach a point where you can only fill 2 or 3 aircraft the scale is not there to support the type ( in my opinion)


I've noticed your IF LAX rebounds comment? Why wouldn't it.

While some doubt the long term viability of international air travel, that's the minority. Most question when it returns and how long it takes to recover not IF.

Due to financial restraints airlines will exit unprofitable or developing routes that don't show a short term improvement but will our North American gateway not return? Highly doubtful.

When forecasting the fleet out on over a particular weekly schedule, don't forget to add in many Pacific and Tasman flights, or routes such as CHC-PER in summer. Likewise, some cargo flights have proven highly successful and could remain in place in addition to passenger services for a period of time.

I also notice ZK-NBT missed DPS from his list in post 116
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1099
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 6:51 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:


Another matter which came up again today ( https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... cine-proof ) is acceptable, internationally recognized proof of vaccination. It's all very well to say borders will open up with vaccination, but if you can't have an agreed standard of proof it may be less simple. Understandably, the priority at the moment is getting people vaccinated. But at an international level, there will need ( in my opinion) to be some verifiable and agreed standard for showing that someone has been vaccinated. The old low tech vaccination booklet is not likely to make the grade.


Even though Australia doesn't have a vaccine passport programme yet, vaccination records are stored in the Medicare account. I assume NZ has a similar system. Once an agreed standard is implemented I think it would be very quick to have the data exported.

What's concerning is it appears that the only proof that people in the US who have been vaccinated is a paper card. How do you then verify its legitimacy if you need to welcome them into this country?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 7:05 am

NZ6 wrote:
Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I just think it’s reasonably logical when NZ have such a small fleet, personally I’m struggling to see where the 77W fits for NZ with more 787s arriving from 2022 and while they rebuild taking advantage of the likes of UA/SQ/CX who have larger fleets etc.


I have to see say, I also struggle to see a place for the 77W in the future. If LAX rebounds, yes, in due course they might be able to fill a couple of them at reasonable yields, but I'm not convinced there will be enough 777 worthy routes to justify a small fleet. It was one thing when they had a 772/77W fleet of 15 aircraft. When you reach a point where you can only fill 2 or 3 aircraft the scale is not there to support the type ( in my opinion)


I've noticed your IF LAX rebounds comment? Why wouldn't it.

While some doubt the long term viability of international air travel, that's the minority. Most question when it returns and how long it takes to recover not IF.

Due to financial restraints airlines will exit unprofitable or developing routes that don't show a short term improvement but will our North American gateway not return? Highly doubtful.

When forecasting the fleet out on over a particular weekly schedule, don't forget to add in many Pacific and Tasman flights, or routes such as CHC-PER in summer. Likewise, some cargo flights have proven highly successful and could remain in place in addition to passenger services for a period of time.

I also notice ZK-NBT missed DPS from his list in post 116


I think Kiwiandrew probably meant if LAX rebounds enough to warrant the 77W, where else long haul would it go even in good times other than SFO/IAH which a 789 should suffice there I would think. I think LAX will obviously still be important but 2 787s a day instead of 2 77Ws in the long run, again a route where UA could add seasonal capacity. I think P2P will be important.

The Tasman Pacific can still operate with several widebodies a day, not as many as pre covid sure, there is still the whole A321/320 fleet to fill in frequency.

I missed DPS in my list as I was talking about the NW, but sure I could see that totally all being well in NS, some other frequencies would be reduced in NS to allow the likes of DPS, more HNL maybe BKK/SGN/MNL, i'll mention that in my next post.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7802
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 7:23 am

aerorobnz wrote:
I am loathed to predict 'post covid' routes because realistically we are already at a point where the world is waiting for the border to open so it can determine what market there still is. The longer the border remains closed the harder it is to predict what will happen, and the more chance the market will die off to an unviable return point. or that the airlines go under before they have a chance to return. My feeling is that we will not have anything like what we think we should have for a long time, I think LA might not ever be back for example, same with PR and CA, but it is all subject to such specific timing. On the flip side, I think an airline like AC would be interested to maintain passenger connections, but as an airline, it is caught between possibly the 2 most overcautious political leaders in the developed world. in Trudeau and Ardern, so even if the markets are gagging for it they may not be able to do anything about it. UA/AA is in a good place compared to most airlines, they have begun to recover revenue with a vibrant domestic market, and a large percentage of the population vaccinated and many states back to fully open for business.

I hope everyone likes flying on QF/NZ/SQ/EK/QR. Everything else is anyone's guess.


Good point, I would say South America could be years away, I see CA coming back NZ just renewed the partnership with them, and I would think CZ/MU will return, certainly less frequency than before but likely still daily in CZ's case. I don't think the smaller Chinese carriers will come back and I probably agree with you on PR, TG/MH are basket cases from a management side of things and should they survive I think a strong regional network with some core long haul routes feeding into them, not sure AKL fits there for them which brings me to a point maybe a chance for NZ to BKK/MNL/SGN certainly in the NS. AC could work closer with NZ on the YVR route, I guess seasonal for AC initially like pre covid to potentially provide a daily YVR link atleast in NW with split frequencies.

Not sure what peoples thoughts are on NZ to BKK//MNL/SGN should the likes of PR/TG not return? MNL didn't start last time due politics but maybe take 2? I don't think KUL would be for NZ, its so close to SIN, maybe EK with AKL-KUL-DXB rather than the DPS flight, KUL could have a bit more year round demand.
 
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Kiwings
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 8:37 am

PR has a slightly different market than MH or TG. They are very much a 3rd/4th freedom carrier that relies on the VFR market. So this market will be quite strong for them once the border reopens. There are over 70,000 filipinos living in NZ.
Dont think NZ will go to MNL - it is a very low yield market - and I know that NZ's MNL plans were only driven by certain NZ executives who had expansionary plans but that REV and PLN people in NZ did not support it as it was not going to be profitable.
TG and MH do not have the luxury of a substantial VFR base so may struggle initially.
 
tealnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 8:40 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ will I believe have 4 781 in the fleet by then, so a peak 2023/24 season could look something like, longhaul 14x 789, 4x 781


The first 787-10 has been converted to a 787-9 due for delivery in October 2022.

It seems unlikely Air NZ will only have one GE 787-9, so I expect at least two more 787-10s will be converted to 787-9s. The configuration would most likely be for maximum range, a Code 3 with the new product for AKL-EWR etc.

PA515


Right yes, 1 GE 789 doesn’t seem likely long term, from what I gather the new 787s will have new cabins but they won’t convert the existing fleet yet until things get back to normal and there is some decent revenue coming in.


And we still don’t have confirmation that Boeing have actually committed to an MTOW increase or other range-extending tweaks for the -10s. Sticking with the 77Ws, with their cargo capacity, seems more obvious than 787-10s for LAX and SFO once those routes get back to something like normal traffic levels.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7802
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 9:22 am

Kiwings wrote:
PR has a slightly different market than MH or TG. They are very much a 3rd/4th freedom carrier that relies on the VFR market. So this market will be quite strong for them once the border reopens. There are over 70,000 filipinos living in NZ.
Dont think NZ will go to MNL - it is a very low yield market - and I know that NZ's MNL plans were only driven by certain NZ executives who had expansionary plans but that REV and PLN people in NZ did not support it as it was not going to be profitable.
TG and MH do not have the luxury of a substantial VFR base so may struggle initially.


Fair enough re the different market, Thailand is a huge leisure market, TG are stuck being in one of the most visited countries in the world, fairly leisure orientated compared to the likes of HKG/SIN and airlines generally fly much more Y heavy aircraft there, TG don't know what they are chasing really, one of many problems for them. KUL for MH again not as high yeilding as HKG/SIN, alot of lowcost competition with Air Asia etc. MNL for NZ I thought was more political issues, NZ were going to use a paid off 763 initially. You could see some interesting routes in the interim where there is demand weather they are profitable or not. PR are in poor shape like alot of others and shrinking, they have much bigger markets than AKL with a smaller fleet.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 9:25 am

tealnz wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
PA515 wrote:

The first 787-10 has been converted to a 787-9 due for delivery in October 2022.

It seems unlikely Air NZ will only have one GE 787-9, so I expect at least two more 787-10s will be converted to 787-9s. The configuration would most likely be for maximum range, a Code 3 with the new product for AKL-EWR etc.

PA515


Right yes, 1 GE 789 doesn’t seem likely long term, from what I gather the new 787s will have new cabins but they won’t convert the existing fleet yet until things get back to normal and there is some decent revenue coming in.


And we still don’t have confirmation that Boeing have actually committed to an MTOW increase or other range-extending tweaks for the -10s. Sticking with the 77Ws, with their cargo capacity, seems more obvious than 787-10s for LAX and SFO once those routes get back to something like normal traffic levels.


Well we know UA ran the 781 SFO-AKL pre covid. No ideas on any numbers, I think they did it due to its much lower operating costs than the 77W which could go to higher yeilding routes. Cargo to LAX is about the only reason I can see the 77W myself. What do they do when the 77W retires?
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 11:11 am

I don't see any new Asian ports for NZ, but I do see EK continuing ex KUL/BKK/DPS with passenger operations to compensate
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 11:55 am

aerorobnz wrote:
I don't see any new Asian ports for NZ, but I do see EK continuing ex KUL/BKK/DPS with passenger operations to compensate


So you're saying no passenger ops to CAN, correct?
Plane mad!
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 2:55 pm

NZ321 wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
I don't see any new Asian ports for NZ, but I do see EK continuing ex KUL/BKK/DPS with passenger operations to compensate


So you're saying no passenger ops to CAN, correct?


Can't see it right now unless CZ was to pull out.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1821
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 10:44 pm

aerorobnz wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
aerorobnz wrote:
I don't see any new Asian ports for NZ, but I do see EK continuing ex KUL/BKK/DPS with passenger operations to compensate


So you're saying no passenger ops to CAN, correct?


Can't see it right now unless CZ was to pull out.

However, if NZ manages to capture a decent portion of the freight market to and from CAN during the pandemic, it may suit them quite well to maintain that afterward and to offer passenger service on those flights. But having a solid freight baseload is about the only way I could see them operating AKL-CAN longer-term.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ6
Posts: 1803
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 11:21 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
I think Kiwiandrew probably meant if LAX rebounds enough to warrant the 77W, where else long haul would it go even in good times other than SFO/IAH which a 789 should suffice there I would think. I think LAX will obviously still be important but 2 787s a day instead of 2 77Ws in the long run, again a route where UA could add seasonal capacity. I think P2P will be important.

The Tasman Pacific can still operate with several widebodies a day, not as many as pre covid sure, there is still the whole A321/320 fleet to fill in frequency.

I missed DPS in my list as I was talking about the NW, but sure I could see that totally all being well in NS, some other frequencies would be reduced in NS to allow the likes of DPS, more HNL maybe BKK/SGN/MNL, i'll mention that in my next post.


Right, that would make sense. I think we all know LAX is the backbone of North America. LAX will "rebound". The question on where, how and when to use the 77W is a different question.

It was clear in my mind, pre COVID there were no plans to have a A350-1000 or 77X in the fleet leaving an all 787 fleet long term. That wouldn't have changed and would mean LAX will one day be served by the 787.

The 772 won't return, we all know that. The question is only, how many 77W's are needed between now, when the 772 replacements arrive and normality which may overlap when the 77W's were sceheduled to get replaced.

In my mind, here's how I see it playing out.

We finally have a bubble on the Tasman/Cook Islands which is long overdue and planning should now turn towards very limited long haul return in the last quarter of this year. While many will say I'm dreaming, it's realistic that a safe zone (not bubble) could be opened around this time. Without "open borders" the adhoc and scheduled cargo flight will remain in addition to this

I believe you also need to have tech crew airworthiness in mind in preparation for next year when more safe zones are opened along with non passenger cargo flights.

While optimization will not be as high as pre COVID, this will gradually increase. Absorbed by new arrivals and some 77W.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sat May 15, 2021 11:53 pm

What are peoples thoughts around VA future flight credits that are issues to New Zealand based customers? it has become very clear that VA has very little intrest in returning to New Zealand in the near term. I would even expect that ZQN services will not start this year, I'm expecting these services to be pulled at short notice.

Which brings the case of all the people in New Zealand that hold credit against VA(NZ) for booking that were made, that are now pretty much worthless.

VA refused to refund New Zealand based travellers, instead only offering future flight credits that they have to way for the majority of holders to redeem.
 
tullamarine
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 16, 2021 3:37 am

zkncj wrote:
What are peoples thoughts around VA future flight credits that are issues to New Zealand based customers? it has become very clear that VA has very little intrest in returning to New Zealand in the near term. I would even expect that ZQN services will not start this year, I'm expecting these services to be pulled at short notice.

Which brings the case of all the people in New Zealand that hold credit against VA(NZ) for booking that were made, that are now pretty much worthless.

VA refused to refund New Zealand based travellers, instead only offering future flight credits that they have to way for the majority of holders to redeem.

There was never any prospect of a full cash refund. VA went into administration and, technically, ticket holders became unsecured creditors which would have meant a payout of less than 10c in the dollar. Instead Bain offered to treat ticketholders as a different category and created the credits. The flight credit may be currently hard to access but it is better than a token cash payment. I still VA will eventually return to New Zealand but not this year whilst the bubble continues to struggle.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2749
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 16, 2021 3:43 am

xiaotung wrote:
Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:


Another matter which came up again today ( https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... cine-proof ) is acceptable, internationally recognized proof of vaccination. It's all very well to say borders will open up with vaccination, but if you can't have an agreed standard of proof it may be less simple. Understandably, the priority at the moment is getting people vaccinated. But at an international level, there will need ( in my opinion) to be some verifiable and agreed standard for showing that someone has been vaccinated. The old low tech vaccination booklet is not likely to make the grade.


Even though Australia doesn't have a vaccine passport programme yet, vaccination records are stored in the Medicare account. I assume NZ has a similar system. Once an agreed standard is implemented I think it would be very quick to have the data exported.

What's concerning is it appears that the only proof that people in the US who have been vaccinated is a paper card. How do you then verify its legitimacy if you need to welcome them into this country?

Australia and New Zealand have electronic records built into passports via a chip. As you point out, from an IT point of view, it should be easy to link the My Health Record with an Australian passport though this would require some legislative changes as privacy legislation doesn;t allow the Department of Health to share information with the Department of Foreign Affairs. This is not insurmountable and I assume it is already being investigated. For a unicameral parliament with a majority government, this should be even easier to achieve in New Zealand.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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aerorobnz
Posts: 8424
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Sun May 16, 2021 4:56 am

tullamarine wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
Kiwiandrew wrote:


Even though Australia doesn't have a vaccine passport programme yet, vaccination records are stored in the Medicare account.d.


Even with all that, the passport chip (or indeed the software used to process)may well not be configurable to that additional information ( also any info stored on pprt is going to be readable and storable to airlines), which could require entirely new passports to be reissued. I think it would be much more straight forward and quicker to issue a separate NHI card in an RFID cover that holds such information (like a pay wave credit card). For the most part it would be a waste of time outside of a select few western countries who crave that level of government surveillance and controls. Many more countries have not the infrastructure, the money or indeed the desire to share the information of the citizens with other nations who could use that for nefarious means (Imagine what Iran might do to USA/Israeli information if they got the opportunity). < Now I do grant you that if the information stored on the card is minimal and other health info not also stored then that's ok
Cards and data can easily be cloned, a yellow fever certificate booklet is already standard issue, much lower cost and is more secure. (digital data can be sent worldwide within seconds).. As is the current case, if a country is in any doubt they can investigate on a case by case basis if they have any concerns.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1099
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 17, 2021 3:09 am

aerorobnz wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
xiaotung wrote:

Even though Australia doesn't have a vaccine passport programme yet, vaccination records are stored in the Medicare account.d.


Even with all that, the passport chip (or indeed the software used to process)may well not be configurable to that additional information ( also any info stored on pprt is going to be readable and storable to airlines), which could require entirely new passports to be reissued. I think it would be much more straight forward and quicker to issue a separate NHI card in an RFID cover that holds such information (like a pay wave credit card). For the most part it would be a waste of time outside of a select few western countries who crave that level of government surveillance and controls. Many more countries have not the infrastructure, the money or indeed the desire to share the information of the citizens with other nations who could use that for nefarious means (Imagine what Iran might do to USA/Israeli information if they got the opportunity). < Now I do grant you that if the information stored on the card is minimal and other health info not also stored then that's ok
Cards and data can easily be cloned, a yellow fever certificate booklet is already standard issue, much lower cost and is more secure. (digital data can be sent worldwide within seconds).. As is the current case, if a country is in any doubt they can investigate on a case by case basis if they have any concerns.


Yes, the current passport chips are read only. You can't add additional data onto them but vaccination information potentially could be verified electronically just like how visas are verified against immigration database. Issuing a separate card does not solve the problem if the data stored on the card can't be verified live. The problem is working out a global standard and who will store the data. Is IATA the most logical organisation to do that?
 
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Kiwings
Posts: 24
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - May 2021

Mon May 17, 2021 3:47 am

IATA is in full swing and this seems to be the obvious answer as it will inevitably be the airlines that are the police. See
https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/

And we certainly need a global system not local regional or national systems.
NZ has been doing some initial trials along with alot of other airlines.
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