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mxaxai
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Tue May 04, 2021 6:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
Seems as all this is happening LH also got share holder approval to raise EUR 5.5B on the market, much of which will be used to buy out the government stake that was taken during this crisis.

Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -investors

Germany media are reporting that LH is planning to receive an additional EUR 1.5B of government support. The deal that LH struck with the German government last year split the money into various parts with different conditions. So basically, LH is buying out the part of the government stake with poor conditions while selling them a new stake with better conditions (from LH's point of view).
 
DUSZRH
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Tue May 04, 2021 9:00 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Seems as all this is happening LH also got share holder approval to raise EUR 5.5B on the market, much of which will be used to buy out the government stake that was taken during this crisis.

Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -investors

Germany media are reporting that LH is planning to receive an additional EUR 1.5B of government support. The deal that LH struck with the German government last year split the money into various parts with different conditions. So basically, LH is buying out the part of the government stake with poor conditions while selling them a new stake with better conditions (from LH's point of view).


Let’s be more precise in wording. They are prepared to draw another 1.5B euro Of credit lines towards the end of the year from the existing state aid Packages. (The offer expires end of this year). This is all part of the WSF package. They have asked their shareholders for a capital increase to replace this mezzanine (equity like) funding. However, they’re not doing the capital increase now, but are waiting for an opportunistic time frame.

(The state aid is structured in a way that interest rates are rising every year so that holding onto it is not attractive for LH, starting at 4.5% (which is low for equity), rising to 9%, which is higher than LH’s long term RoE target (which is 8%)).

In winter they refinanced the KfW loan, which was collaterised with a large part of the fleet (~300 aircraft), as they could get more attractive financing in the market. Note this is debt, but the rest of the aid is equity like financing.
 
marcelh
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Tue May 04, 2021 10:20 pm

Revelation wrote:
We know Airbus has a smaller wide body aircraft they could have offered, with a bunch of white tails said to be available, one that LH's A340 pilots could fly with next to no time spent on training, with state of the art engines, and one whose production line is capable of much higher levels of production. Maybe Airbus offered and LH declined?
.

You’re very persistent to bring in the A330neo into this thread while ignoring:
1. Lufthansa didn’t want the A330neo and went for the B787 instead (in 2019)
2. You don’t add another subfleet of just 5 planes which doesn’t fit in the long term plans while the plane you want is also available with -presumably- very attractive terms.
 
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Revelation
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Tue May 04, 2021 11:19 pm

marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
We know Airbus has a smaller wide body aircraft they could have offered, with a bunch of white tails said to be available, one that LH's A340 pilots could fly with next to no time spent on training, with state of the art engines, and one whose production line is capable of much higher levels of production. Maybe Airbus offered and LH declined?
.

You’re very persistent to bring in the A330neo into this thread while ignoring:
1. Lufthansa didn’t want the A330neo and went for the B787 instead (in 2019)
2. You don’t add another subfleet of just 5 planes which doesn’t fit in the long term plans while the plane you want is also available with -presumably- very attractive terms.

Not sure I would call it a new subfleet, they are already an A330-300 operator, the only real difference is the engine, and that's really similar to what they have on A350.

All other conditions, smaller plane available quickly and presumably cheaply, seem to supportive of them getting on board.

Seems like the perfect time, no?
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FLALEFTY
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 1:08 am

Revelation wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
We know Airbus has a smaller wide body aircraft they could have offered, with a bunch of white tails said to be available, one that LH's A340 pilots could fly with next to no time spent on training, with state of the art engines, and one whose production line is capable of much higher levels of production. Maybe Airbus offered and LH declined?
.

You’re very persistent to bring in the A330neo into this thread while ignoring:
1. Lufthansa didn’t want the A330neo and went for the B787 instead (in 2019)
2. You don’t add another subfleet of just 5 planes which doesn’t fit in the long term plans while the plane you want is also available with -presumably- very attractive terms.

Not sure I would call it a new subfleet, they are already an A330-300 operator, the only real difference is the engine, and that's really similar to what they have on A350.

All other conditions, smaller plane available quickly and presumably cheaply, seem to supportive of them getting on board.

Seems like the perfect time, no?


Lufthansa Group has 43 A333's in their portfolio, with an average age of just 12.5 years, or just entering "middle age". Perhaps they will be waiting until later in the decade to start phasing them out? If so, the A339 would probably be a contender (but so would buying more B789's).
 
columba
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 6:54 am

I can not unterstand why so many always bring up the A330NEO - not only here but especially on German aviation sites - LH wants to have less types not more. They have ordered the 787-9 so no need for the A330NEO.

With 777X, A350 and 787-9 they will have a great fleet, covering all needs.
Air Berlin - gone but not forgotten
 
Opus99
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 7:52 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
Revelation wrote:
marcelh wrote:
You’re very persistent to bring in the A330neo into this thread while ignoring:
1. Lufthansa didn’t want the A330neo and went for the B787 instead (in 2019)
2. You don’t add another subfleet of just 5 planes which doesn’t fit in the long term plans while the plane you want is also available with -presumably- very attractive terms.

Not sure I would call it a new subfleet, they are already an A330-300 operator, the only real difference is the engine, and that's really similar to what they have on A350.

All other conditions, smaller plane available quickly and presumably cheaply, seem to supportive of them getting on board.

Seems like the perfect time, no?


Lufthansa Group has 43 A333's in their portfolio, with an average age of just 12.5 years, or just entering "middle age". Perhaps they will be waiting until later in the decade to start phasing them out? If so, the A339 would probably be a contender (but so would buying more B789's).

with LH looking to slimline their Wide-body fleet families. Going for more 787-9s would be my guess. It will eliminate the 330 family so that leaves you with only 3 kinds in the wide bodies in the long run and 4 in the short turn 747, 777X, 787 and 350. in the long run 777X. 787 and 350. it doesn't get much more efficient than that
 
FluidFlow
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 7:57 am

Opus99 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Not sure I would call it a new subfleet, they are already an A330-300 operator, the only real difference is the engine, and that's really similar to what they have on A350.

All other conditions, smaller plane available quickly and presumably cheaply, seem to supportive of them getting on board.

Seems like the perfect time, no?


Lufthansa Group has 43 A333's in their portfolio, with an average age of just 12.5 years, or just entering "middle age". Perhaps they will be waiting until later in the decade to start phasing them out? If so, the A339 would probably be a contender (but so would buying more B789's).

with LH looking to slimline their Wide-body fleet families. Going for more 787-9s would be my guess. It will eliminate the 330 family so that leaves you with only 3 kinds in the wide bodies in the long run and 4 in the short turn 747, 777X, 787 and 350. in the long run 777X. 787 and 350. it doesn't get much more efficient than that


It is important to know that LHG and LH are not the same. While they share buying advantages, the entities can still have their own fleet strategy as seen by LX having the A220 for example. It could be that OS or LX or others in the group go for the A339 while LH will not. It is kind of similar to AFKLM, where it will be hard to see a 777X at AF or a A350 at KLM even though they are one group.
 
VSMUT
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 8:07 am

columba wrote:
I can not unterstand why so many always bring up the A330NEO - not only here but especially on German aviation sites - LH wants to have less types not more. They have ordered the 787-9 so no need for the A330NEO.

With 777X, A350 and 787-9 they will have a great fleet, covering all needs.


:checkmark:

It isn't unheard of for an airline to order both (see Virgin Atlantic), but Luthansa definitely isn't going to turn around and place an order for the A330neo right after placing an order for additional 787s and A350s.


Opus99 wrote:
with LH looking to slimline their Wide-body fleet families. Going for more 787-9s would be my guess. It will eliminate the 330 family so that leaves you with only 3 kinds in the wide bodies in the long run and 4 in the short turn 747, 777X, 787 and 350. in the long run 777X. 787 and 350. it doesn't get much more efficient than that


The A330 isn't leaving Lufthansa group any time soon. They have more pressing concerns, such as phasing out the 747, A340, 767 and 777-200ER fleets, and replacing lost capacity from the already retired types (A380, some 767s, A340-600, a bunch of 747-400s).
 
Opus99
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 8:17 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

Lufthansa Group has 43 A333's in their portfolio, with an average age of just 12.5 years, or just entering "middle age". Perhaps they will be waiting until later in the decade to start phasing them out? If so, the A339 would probably be a contender (but so would buying more B789's).

with LH looking to slimline their Wide-body fleet families. Going for more 787-9s would be my guess. It will eliminate the 330 family so that leaves you with only 3 kinds in the wide bodies in the long run and 4 in the short turn 747, 777X, 787 and 350. in the long run 777X. 787 and 350. it doesn't get much more efficient than that


It is important to know that LHG and LH are not the same. While they share buying advantages, the entities can still have their own fleet strategy as seen by LX having the A220 for example. It could be that OS or LX or others in the group go for the A339 while LH will not. It is kind of similar to AFKLM, where it will be hard to see a 777X at AF or a A350 at KLM even though they are one group.

True. Fair enough
 
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Momo1435
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 8:21 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:

Lufthansa Group has 43 A333's in their portfolio, with an average age of just 12.5 years, or just entering "middle age". Perhaps they will be waiting until later in the decade to start phasing them out? If so, the A339 would probably be a contender (but so would buying more B789's).

with LH looking to slimline their Wide-body fleet families. Going for more 787-9s would be my guess. It will eliminate the 330 family so that leaves you with only 3 kinds in the wide bodies in the long run and 4 in the short turn 747, 777X, 787 and 350. in the long run 777X. 787 and 350. it doesn't get much more efficient than that


It is important to know that LHG and LH are not the same. While they share buying advantages, the entities can still have their own fleet strategy as seen by LX having the A220 for example. It could be that OS or LX or others in the group go for the A339 while LH will not. It is kind of similar to AFKLM, where it will be hard to see a 777X at AF or a A350 at KLM even though they are one group.

Except that these A350s and 787s were ordered by LHG not LH. Just like the AFKLM A350 and 787 orders where it was decided by the group, not the airline that KLM would not be getting any A350s.

In the press release for the first 787 order LHG mentioned specifically that this order was for the groups airlines.

Does this mean there's no chance for a A330neo order? Of course not, that will always be an option. But any decision to do so will be weighted against adding 787s that are already on order by the group.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 9:08 am

Momo1435 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
with LH looking to slimline their Wide-body fleet families. Going for more 787-9s would be my guess. It will eliminate the 330 family so that leaves you with only 3 kinds in the wide bodies in the long run and 4 in the short turn 747, 777X, 787 and 350. in the long run 777X. 787 and 350. it doesn't get much more efficient than that


It is important to know that LHG and LH are not the same. While they share buying advantages, the entities can still have their own fleet strategy as seen by LX having the A220 for example. It could be that OS or LX or others in the group go for the A339 while LH will not. It is kind of similar to AFKLM, where it will be hard to see a 777X at AF or a A350 at KLM even though they are one group.

Except that these A350s and 787s were ordered by LHG not LH. Just like the AFKLM A350 and 787 orders where it was decided by the group, not the airline that KLM would not be getting any A350s.

In the press release for the first 787 order LHG mentioned specifically that this order was for the groups airlines.

Does this mean there's no chance for a A330neo order? Of course not, that will always be an option. But any decision to do so will be weighted against adding 787s that are already on order by the group.


I agree. The question will be how much the different entities have to say, it could always be that the LHG will order them just for the entities. Chances are that some 787 will end up at OS, or that LH will take the 787 and move some equipment down to OS as they have the most dire need for fleet renewal (Long haul).
 
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AECM
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 10:06 am

Looking at LGH airlines OS is the one that should be able to phase in the B787 with the lowest cost since they already operate B767 and B777 and from a type certificate point of view the B777 / B787 are similar to the A330 / A350.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 10:41 am

777luver wrote:
Revelation wrote:
A321Lufthansa wrote:
Wasn't it more logical to boost A350 deliveries and let A343s go while B789s can be divided between group airlines?

We don't know exactly what LH was offered, but we do know the 787s have 2022 delivery whereas the A350s have 2027-8 delivery so delivery date probably was a factor.

It could also help that 787 is the smaller aircraft and the covid recovery curve means the smaller aircraft is favored.

We know Airbus has a smaller wide body aircraft they could have offered, with a bunch of white tails said to be available, one that LH's A340 pilots could fly with next to no time spent on training, with state of the art engines, and one whose production line is capable of much higher levels of production. Maybe Airbus offered and LH declined?

It is also interesting that LH is deeply in debt and says it wants to pay back the government loans first and foremost but are willing to make financial commitments for new aircraft purchases. I get it, the crisis has meant their fleet is far from optimal, but it seems they could have chosen to make do with A340 longer than desirable and conserve cash. It would have been a complex decision. I wish we had more insight into their thoughts.


Regarding the A340s, there's a lot of armchair fleet planners who cannot understand why LH kept their A343s longer than most airlines, they cannot fathom an airline doing that :p


The A343s are in the sweet spot. The A346s cannot be if first class is removed.
 
smartplane
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 11:35 am

marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
We know Airbus has a smaller wide body aircraft they could have offered, with a bunch of white tails said to be available, one that LH's A340 pilots could fly with next to no time spent on training, with state of the art engines, and one whose production line is capable of much higher levels of production. Maybe Airbus offered and LH declined?
.

You’re very persistent to bring in the A330neo into this thread while ignoring:
1. Lufthansa didn’t want the A330neo and went for the B787 instead (in 2019)
2. You don’t add another subfleet of just 5 planes which doesn’t fit in the long term plans while the plane you want is also available with -presumably- very attractive terms.

The A359 transaction likely flows from the put option leading to the return of the first tranche of A380's. Presumably Airbus made acquiring A359's more attractive than ordering other Airbus models.

Likewise, the 787 order will use X Tier 2 and 3 compensation credits, signalling LH has gone unconditional with one and possibly two tranches (meaning Boeing has firmed X performance guarantees and compensation or has entered into a similar arrangement as with the 748i), so is likely to be the first, or close second operator. The credit value is greater if applied to new orders, so the 787 order instead of additional X's, suggests follow on X orders are unlikely or very far in the future.
 
Opus99
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 11:44 am

smartplane wrote:
marcelh wrote:
Revelation wrote:
We know Airbus has a smaller wide body aircraft they could have offered, with a bunch of white tails said to be available, one that LH's A340 pilots could fly with next to no time spent on training, with state of the art engines, and one whose production line is capable of much higher levels of production. Maybe Airbus offered and LH declined?
.

You’re very persistent to bring in the A330neo into this thread while ignoring:
1. Lufthansa didn’t want the A330neo and went for the B787 instead (in 2019)
2. You don’t add another subfleet of just 5 planes which doesn’t fit in the long term plans while the plane you want is also available with -presumably- very attractive terms.

The A359 transaction likely flows from the put option leading to the return of the first tranche of A380's. Presumably Airbus made acquiring A359's more attractive than ordering other Airbus models.

Likewise, the 787 order will use X Tier 2 and 3 compensation credits, signalling LH has gone unconditional with one and possibly two tranches (meaning Boeing has firmed X performance guarantees and compensation or has entered into a similar arrangement as with the 748i), so is likely to be the first, or close second operator. The credit value is greater if applied to new orders, so the 787 order instead of additional X's, suggests follow on X orders are unlikely or very far in the future.

Wow. This is very interesting information. I don’t think LH will consider the X till the 747-8 is ready to hit the hay. Which is VERY far in the future. Maybe another 10-15 years. The group still holds 24 options for the 777 family.

Out of curiosity, what does firming performance guarantees look like? Boeing is essentially saying they can guarantee this level of performance? And how would the compensation flow from that?
 
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NearMiss
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 12:35 pm

I thought those former LATAM A350s were going LH's way. Anyway, nice to see airlines ordering new aircraft.
"There is an art, it says, or rather, a knack to flying. The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss."
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 2:21 pm

AECM wrote:
Looking at LGH airlines OS is the one that should be able to phase in the B787 with the lowest cost since they already operate B767 and B777 and from a type certificate point of view the B777 / B787 are similar to the A330 / A350.


Swiss, Austrian and Lufthansa Cargo all have 777s and a relationship with Boeing.
 
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AECM
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 2:43 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
AECM wrote:
Looking at LGH airlines OS is the one that should be able to phase in the B787 with the lowest cost since they already operate B767 and B777 and from a type certificate point of view the B777 / B787 are similar to the A330 / A350.


Swiss, Austrian and Lufthansa Cargo all have 777s and a relationship with Boeing.
Yes thats correct, i was only mentioning OS because they have the oldest long haul fleet and 5 x B787 would corresponde to change half of it. I dont have anything against the B787 at Lufthansa either.
 
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Revelation
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 2:50 pm

columba wrote:
I can not unterstand why so many always bring up the A330NEO - not only here but especially on German aviation sites - LH wants to have less types not more. They have ordered the 787-9 so no need for the A330NEO.

Of course it's always better to operate fewer types, but they have operated many types in the past.

Seems to me a really good offer on price and delivery could have won some business.

columba wrote:
With 777X, A350 and 787-9 they will have a great fleet, covering all needs.

Can't argue that.

smartplane wrote:
The A359 transaction likely flows from the put option leading to the return of the first tranche of A380's. Presumably Airbus made acquiring A359's more attractive than ordering other Airbus models.

Likewise, the 787 order will use X Tier 2 and 3 compensation credits, signalling LH has gone unconditional with one and possibly two tranches (meaning Boeing has firmed X performance guarantees and compensation or has entered into a similar arrangement as with the 748i), so is likely to be the first, or close second operator. The credit value is greater if applied to new orders, so the 787 order instead of additional X's, suggests follow on X orders are unlikely or very far in the future.

It's interesting that the statement said they were selling the A380s back to Airbus. It seems they did some exceptionally good deal making to have such an option. It seems the ghost of John Leahy is still lurking. I wonder if Airbus is still paying compensation on the A340-600.

I agree the X has been kicked into the long grass, for now.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
777luver
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 3:14 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

It is important to know that LHG and LH are not the same. While they share buying advantages, the entities can still have their own fleet strategy as seen by LX having the A220 for example. It could be that OS or LX or others in the group go for the A339 while LH will not. It is kind of similar to AFKLM, where it will be hard to see a 777X at AF or a A350 at KLM even though they are one group.

Except that these A350s and 787s were ordered by LHG not LH. Just like the AFKLM A350 and 787 orders where it was decided by the group, not the airline that KLM would not be getting any A350s.

In the press release for the first 787 order LHG mentioned specifically that this order was for the groups airlines.

Does this mean there's no chance for a A330neo order? Of course not, that will always be an option. But any decision to do so will be weighted against adding 787s that are already on order by the group.


I agree. The question will be how much the different entities have to say, it could always be that the LHG will order them just for the entities. Chances are that some 787 will end up at OS, or that LH will take the 787 and move some equipment down to OS as they have the most dire need for fleet renewal (Long haul).



I swear I read that these 5 787s will be for LH only
 
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seahawk
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 3:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
Of course it's always better to operate fewer types, but they have operated many types in the past.

Seems to me a really good offer on price and delivery could have won some business..


No, LH has evaluated the A330NEO 2 times now and first time they went for the A350 and second time they went for the 787 and the voices coming out of LH are very consistent in pointing out that the NEO has no place in their fleet. Unless you believe Airbus did not make realistic offers in the first 2 evaluations, one must come to the conclusion that the topic is done for the next few years.
 
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VCVSpotter
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Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 4:55 pm

I decided to do some digging to find out who these 789s will be coming from. For reference, I will be using the spreadsheet linked below. I understand it's not a 100% accurate as I'll explain later on, but it's relatively close.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19

First of all, LH Group's original order back in March 2019 was for A359s/789s with Rolls Royce engines. Due to the need for fleet commonality, it's only logical that all of the GE 787s are eliminated. Any variant other than the 787-9 is also eliminated (as LH specifically said they ordered 787-9s).
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... craft.aspx

This article published this morning (May 5), speculates that "However, the fact that Lufthansa plans to “inherit” business class seats seems to suggest that this isn’t the source of the planes, because Norwegian doesn’t have business class (but rather only premium economy)." This eliminates the possibility of the commonly speculated Norwegian 789s going to Lufthansa. In addition, there are only four undelivered Norwegian 789s (LN955, LN971, LN983, LN1011).

Furthermore, the article also explains "It’s reported by aero.de that Lufthansa will be designing a business class product similar to what it’s currently offering, but with direct aisle access from every seat."
https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-78 ... ess-class/

So now we need to look for a 787-9, with Rolls Royce engines, that has business class with direct aisle access from each seat, and all of them should (preferably) be from the same airline.
There is only ONE airline that satisfies all of those categories: ANA.
https://www.ana.co.jp/en/us/travel-info ... ess-class/

As Momo1435 stated earlier:
Momo1435 wrote:
...I also believe there was some talk about ANA not taking any RR powered 787s anymore and Boeing has plenty of those in storage waiting for an uncertain delivery.


Which lends further support to the ANA theory.

Time to dive into what specific LNs will be going to Lufthansa:
This is where the spreadsheet (first link) has a slight inaccuracy. They state all of the ANA 787s on that spreadsheet have Rolls Royce engines. However, the picture linked below clearly shows a GE logo on the engines of ANA 789 N882BA (future reg JA936A, LN1094). I believe that it would be safe to assume that all ANA 789s after LN1094 would be GE powered, especially as Momo1435 pointed out their strong disliking of taking delivery of new RR 789s.
https://twitter.com/BoeingSCSpotter/sta ... 6511447044

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and airplanes. No biggie • Love the 747 & 777-9
 
RvA
Posts: 489
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 5:06 pm

VCVSpotter wrote:
I decided to do some digging to find out who these 789s will be coming from. For reference, I will be using the spreadsheet linked below. I understand it's not a 100% accurate as I'll explain later on, but it's relatively close.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19

First of all, LH Group's original order back in March 2019 was for A359s/789s with Rolls Royce engines. Due to the need for fleet commonality, it's only logical that all of the GE 787s are eliminated. Any variant other than the 787-9 is also eliminated (as LH specifically said they ordered 787-9s).
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... craft.aspx

This article published this morning (May 5), speculates that "However, the fact that Lufthansa plans to “inherit” business class seats seems to suggest that this isn’t the source of the planes, because Norwegian doesn’t have business class (but rather only premium economy)." This eliminates the possibility of the commonly speculated Norwegian 789s going to Lufthansa. In addition, there are only four undelivered Norwegian 789s (LN955, LN971, LN983, LN1011).

Furthermore, the article also explains "It’s reported by aero.de that Lufthansa will be designing a business class product similar to what it’s currently offering, but with direct aisle access from every seat."
https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-78 ... ess-class/

So now we need to look for a 787-9, with Rolls Royce engines, that has business class with direct aisle access from each seat, and all of them should (preferably) be from the same airline.
There is only ONE airline that satisfies all of those categories: ANA.
https://www.ana.co.jp/en/us/travel-info ... ess-class/

As Momo1435 stated earlier:
Momo1435 wrote:
...I also believe there was some talk about ANA not taking any RR powered 787s anymore and Boeing has plenty of those in storage waiting for an uncertain delivery.


Which lends further support to the ANA theory.

Time to dive into what specific LNs will be going to Lufthansa:
This is where the spreadsheet (first link) has a slight inaccuracy. They state all of the ANA 787s on that spreadsheet have Rolls Royce engines. However, the picture linked below clearly shows a GE logo on the engines of ANA 789 N882BA (future reg JA936A, LN1094). I believe that it would be safe to assume that all ANA 789s after LN1094 would be GE powered, especially as Momo1435 pointed out their strong disliking of taking delivery of new RR 789s.
https://twitter.com/BoeingSCSpotter/sta ... 6511447044

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.


Interesting work! If you are right and they take the ANA product that wouldn’t be so bad either. I’d say it’d be the best product in the group even (although of course the J seats LX/OS/SN have - excluding the ones with 2 seats on say the window side - are not bad either).
Nice, let’s see if you are right!
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2943
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 5:10 pm

RvA wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:
I decided to do some digging to find out who these 789s will be coming from. For reference, I will be using the spreadsheet linked below. I understand it's not a 100% accurate as I'll explain later on, but it's relatively close.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19

First of all, LH Group's original order back in March 2019 was for A359s/789s with Rolls Royce engines. Due to the need for fleet commonality, it's only logical that all of the GE 787s are eliminated. Any variant other than the 787-9 is also eliminated (as LH specifically said they ordered 787-9s).
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... craft.aspx

This article published this morning (May 5), speculates that "However, the fact that Lufthansa plans to “inherit” business class seats seems to suggest that this isn’t the source of the planes, because Norwegian doesn’t have business class (but rather only premium economy)." This eliminates the possibility of the commonly speculated Norwegian 789s going to Lufthansa. In addition, there are only four undelivered Norwegian 789s (LN955, LN971, LN983, LN1011).

Furthermore, the article also explains "It’s reported by aero.de that Lufthansa will be designing a business class product similar to what it’s currently offering, but with direct aisle access from every seat."
https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-78 ... ess-class/

So now we need to look for a 787-9, with Rolls Royce engines, that has business class with direct aisle access from each seat, and all of them should (preferably) be from the same airline.
There is only ONE airline that satisfies all of those categories: ANA.
https://www.ana.co.jp/en/us/travel-info ... ess-class/

As Momo1435 stated earlier:
Momo1435 wrote:
...I also believe there was some talk about ANA not taking any RR powered 787s anymore and Boeing has plenty of those in storage waiting for an uncertain delivery.


Which lends further support to the ANA theory.

Time to dive into what specific LNs will be going to Lufthansa:
This is where the spreadsheet (first link) has a slight inaccuracy. They state all of the ANA 787s on that spreadsheet have Rolls Royce engines. However, the picture linked below clearly shows a GE logo on the engines of ANA 789 N882BA (future reg JA936A, LN1094). I believe that it would be safe to assume that all ANA 789s after LN1094 would be GE powered, especially as Momo1435 pointed out their strong disliking of taking delivery of new RR 789s.
https://twitter.com/BoeingSCSpotter/sta ... 6511447044

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.


Interesting work! If you are right and they take the ANA product that wouldn’t be so bad either. I’d say it’d be the best product in the group even (although of course the J seats LX/OS/SN have - excluding the ones with 2 seats on say the window side - are not bad either).
Nice, let’s see if you are right!


Agree, thank you VCVSpotter, its great to see this type of contribution in the forum (especially from young members)! If that is true, I don't think any of us realized how many "white tails" Boeing had - we all assumed the Norwegian and Vistara, but adding ANA was unexpected.

Either way, I find it weird that LH won't outfit the 787s with their own product, especially as there is enough time (I think ) to get those seats.
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5498
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 5:28 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Either way, I find it weird that LH won't outfit the 787s with their own product, especially as there is enough time (I think ) to get those seats.


Probably because they are rolling out a new/revised business class product soon, so can't justify the added cost of refitting an already equipped aircraft with the old product only to remove it in one or two years again.
 
User avatar
Momo1435
Posts: 1228
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 5:49 pm

VCVSpotter wrote:
I decided to do some digging to find out who these 789s will be coming from. For reference, I will be using the spreadsheet linked below. I understand it's not a 100% accurate as I'll explain later on, but it's relatively close.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19

First of all, LH Group's original order back in March 2019 was for A359s/789s with Rolls Royce engines. Due to the need for fleet commonality, it's only logical that all of the GE 787s are eliminated. Any variant other than the 787-9 is also eliminated (as LH specifically said they ordered 787-9s).
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... craft.aspx

This article published this morning (May 5), speculates that "However, the fact that Lufthansa plans to “inherit” business class seats seems to suggest that this isn’t the source of the planes, because Norwegian doesn’t have business class (but rather only premium economy)." This eliminates the possibility of the commonly speculated Norwegian 789s going to Lufthansa. In addition, there are only four undelivered Norwegian 789s (LN955, LN971, LN983, LN1011).

Furthermore, the article also explains "It’s reported by aero.de that Lufthansa will be designing a business class product similar to what it’s currently offering, but with direct aisle access from every seat."
https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-78 ... ess-class/

So now we need to look for a 787-9, with Rolls Royce engines, that has business class with direct aisle access from each seat, and all of them should (preferably) be from the same airline.
There is only ONE airline that satisfies all of those categories: ANA.
https://www.ana.co.jp/en/us/travel-info ... ess-class/

As Momo1435 stated earlier:
Momo1435 wrote:
...I also believe there was some talk about ANA not taking any RR powered 787s anymore and Boeing has plenty of those in storage waiting for an uncertain delivery.


Which lends further support to the ANA theory.

Time to dive into what specific LNs will be going to Lufthansa:
This is where the spreadsheet (first link) has a slight inaccuracy. They state all of the ANA 787s on that spreadsheet have Rolls Royce engines. However, the picture linked below clearly shows a GE logo on the engines of ANA 789 N882BA (future reg JA936A, LN1094). I believe that it would be safe to assume that all ANA 789s after LN1094 would be GE powered, especially as Momo1435 pointed out their strong disliking of taking delivery of new RR 789s.
https://twitter.com/BoeingSCSpotter/sta ... 6511447044

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.

It all depends if ANA will indeed not take delivery of these frames, which is not a certainty.

I just found out that ANA will be taking delivery of 8 787-9s (and 1 787-10) in Fiscal 2021 (ends on 2022/03/31). They announced this in a financial report that was published last week, which did not say anything about the engine choice for these deliveries. So we have to wait and see what will happen with the stored frames with RR engines and also what will happen with their 1st GE frame which how now also been flown to Victorville for storage. Maybe we get some inside info soon.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 904
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 6:00 pm

How about Gulf Air. Anyone know when Gulf Air is scheduled for the remaining 5 B789 deliveries?
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2943
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 6:12 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:
I decided to do some digging to find out who these 789s will be coming from. For reference, I will be using the spreadsheet linked below. I understand it's not a 100% accurate as I'll explain later on, but it's relatively close.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19

First of all, LH Group's original order back in March 2019 was for A359s/789s with Rolls Royce engines. Due to the need for fleet commonality, it's only logical that all of the GE 787s are eliminated. Any variant other than the 787-9 is also eliminated (as LH specifically said they ordered 787-9s).
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... craft.aspx

This article published this morning (May 5), speculates that "However, the fact that Lufthansa plans to “inherit” business class seats seems to suggest that this isn’t the source of the planes, because Norwegian doesn’t have business class (but rather only premium economy)." This eliminates the possibility of the commonly speculated Norwegian 789s going to Lufthansa. In addition, there are only four undelivered Norwegian 789s (LN955, LN971, LN983, LN1011).

Furthermore, the article also explains "It’s reported by aero.de that Lufthansa will be designing a business class product similar to what it’s currently offering, but with direct aisle access from every seat."
https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-78 ... ess-class/

So now we need to look for a 787-9, with Rolls Royce engines, that has business class with direct aisle access from each seat, and all of them should (preferably) be from the same airline.
There is only ONE airline that satisfies all of those categories: ANA.
https://www.ana.co.jp/en/us/travel-info ... ess-class/

As Momo1435 stated earlier:
Momo1435 wrote:
...I also believe there was some talk about ANA not taking any RR powered 787s anymore and Boeing has plenty of those in storage waiting for an uncertain delivery.


Which lends further support to the ANA theory.

Time to dive into what specific LNs will be going to Lufthansa:
This is where the spreadsheet (first link) has a slight inaccuracy. They state all of the ANA 787s on that spreadsheet have Rolls Royce engines. However, the picture linked below clearly shows a GE logo on the engines of ANA 789 N882BA (future reg JA936A, LN1094). I believe that it would be safe to assume that all ANA 789s after LN1094 would be GE powered, especially as Momo1435 pointed out their strong disliking of taking delivery of new RR 789s.
https://twitter.com/BoeingSCSpotter/sta ... 6511447044

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.

It all depends if ANA will indeed not take delivery of these frames, which is not a certainty.

I just found out that ANA will be taking delivery of 8 787-9s (and 1 787-10) in Fiscal 2021 (ends on 2022/03/31). They announced this in a financial report that was published last week, which did not say anything about the engine choice for these deliveries. So we have to wait and see what will happen with the stored frames with RR engines and also what will happen with their 1st GE frame which how now also been flown to Victorville for storage. Maybe we get some inside info soon.


Per Boeing unfilled orders, ANA has 8 789s with RRs and 1 789 with GE remaining. So, unless ANA is taking leased aircraft, it appears they will be taking most, if not all, RR 789s then.
 
User avatar
Momo1435
Posts: 1228
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:33 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 9:05 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Per Boeing unfilled orders, ANA has 8 789s with RRs and 1 789 with GE remaining. So, unless ANA is taking leased aircraft, it appears they will be taking most, if not all, RR 789s then.

The engine selection on Boeing's page is not always fully up to date of course, LHs selection for the 787 for example is still Not Selected even though the RR engine order was publicly announced. We'll see what happens.

It could also be the case that LH won't use the seats that are on the white tails they will get, but won't install their own product on these planes. They might another product that is also used by another airline, or better a product that would have been used by another airline that has cancelled or deferred orders making the seats available on such short notice. If this is the case it could be any of the available whitetails, it could even be mix of different original customers.
 
User avatar
moddin
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:04 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 9:05 pm

What about ln 887, 893, 898, 905, 913? Were built for Hainan and Suparna, but ntu. The Hainan ones were built in PAE, the Suparna one in CHS. The one in CHS is mentioned having GEnx engines, but it‘s stored w/out any engines. As far as I know, it‘s quite easy to change the connections at the pylon for the other engine type.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 2943
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 9:12 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Per Boeing unfilled orders, ANA has 8 789s with RRs and 1 789 with GE remaining. So, unless ANA is taking leased aircraft, it appears they will be taking most, if not all, RR 789s then.

The engine selection on Boeing's page is not always fully up to date of course, LHs selection for the 787 for example is still Not Selected even though the RR engine order was publicly announced. We'll see what happens.

It could also be the case that LH won't use the seats that are on the white tails they will get, but won't install their own product on these planes. They might another product that is also used by another airline, or better a product that would have been used by another airline that has cancelled or deferred orders making the seats available on such short notice. If this is the case it could be any of the available whitetails, it could even be mix of different original customers.


Regardless of engine choice, ANA only has 9 789s on order still and apparently will take 8 this year. As such, unless (1) ANA is leasing aircraft or (2) Boeing is going to characterize some built 789s as ntu and then build additional ones for ANA this year, then LH 5 cannot be the ANA 5.
 
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moddin
Posts: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:04 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 9:26 pm

What about ln 887, 893, 898, 905, 913? 898 was built in CHS, the others in PAE. That‘s also what Mr Spohr stated. All were assigned for the HNA Group (the PAE ones for Hainan, 898 for Suparna). 898 has no engines installed so far, so GE and RR could both be installed as far as I know.
 
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MaxiAir
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 9:58 pm

VCVSpotter wrote:

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.



How sure are you that LN1091 is still with RR engines? Planespotters net shows it with GE and also lists N2005B as its second test reg.
https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... ays/rqjwjy

LN 1091 is also listed as N2005B with KPAE Blogspot
https://kpae.blogspot.com/2021/03/paine ... rch-5.html

And this video clearly shows N2005B equipped with GE engines
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I0b8dhIp-4
Flown on - 306,313,318,319,320,321,332,333,343,345,346,359,35K,388, 712,733,734,735,736,73G,738,744,748,752,753,763,77E,77L,77W, 788, 789, M11, M1F, M88, CR7,CR9, E35,E45,E75,E90,E95, AR1,AR8, DHT,DH1,DH4, and some more ;)
 
DUSZRH
Posts: 265
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:17 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 10:11 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:
I decided to do some digging to find out who these 789s will be coming from. For reference, I will be using the spreadsheet linked below. I understand it's not a 100% accurate as I'll explain later on, but it's relatively close.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19

First of all, LH Group's original order back in March 2019 was for A359s/789s with Rolls Royce engines. Due to the need for fleet commonality, it's only logical that all of the GE 787s are eliminated. Any variant other than the 787-9 is also eliminated (as LH specifically said they ordered 787-9s).
https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/press ... craft.aspx

This article published this morning (May 5), speculates that "However, the fact that Lufthansa plans to “inherit” business class seats seems to suggest that this isn’t the source of the planes, because Norwegian doesn’t have business class (but rather only premium economy)." This eliminates the possibility of the commonly speculated Norwegian 789s going to Lufthansa. In addition, there are only four undelivered Norwegian 789s (LN955, LN971, LN983, LN1011).

Furthermore, the article also explains "It’s reported by aero.de that Lufthansa will be designing a business class product similar to what it’s currently offering, but with direct aisle access from every seat."
https://onemileatatime.com/lufthansa-78 ... ess-class/

So now we need to look for a 787-9, with Rolls Royce engines, that has business class with direct aisle access from each seat, and all of them should (preferably) be from the same airline.
There is only ONE airline that satisfies all of those categories: ANA.
https://www.ana.co.jp/en/us/travel-info ... ess-class/

As Momo1435 stated earlier:


Which lends further support to the ANA theory.

Time to dive into what specific LNs will be going to Lufthansa:
This is where the spreadsheet (first link) has a slight inaccuracy. They state all of the ANA 787s on that spreadsheet have Rolls Royce engines. However, the picture linked below clearly shows a GE logo on the engines of ANA 789 N882BA (future reg JA936A, LN1094). I believe that it would be safe to assume that all ANA 789s after LN1094 would be GE powered, especially as Momo1435 pointed out their strong disliking of taking delivery of new RR 789s.
https://twitter.com/BoeingSCSpotter/sta ... 6511447044

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.

It all depends if ANA will indeed not take delivery of these frames, which is not a certainty.

I just found out that ANA will be taking delivery of 8 787-9s (and 1 787-10) in Fiscal 2021 (ends on 2022/03/31). They announced this in a financial report that was published last week, which did not say anything about the engine choice for these deliveries. So we have to wait and see what will happen with the stored frames with RR engines and also what will happen with their 1st GE frame which how now also been flown to Victorville for storage. Maybe we get some inside info soon.


Per Boeing unfilled orders, ANA has 8 789s with RRs and 1 789 with GE remaining. So, unless ANA is taking leased aircraft, it appears they will be taking most, if not all, RR 789s then.



You're reading the Financial report wrong. As of 31st of March, they were obliged (contract) to take those 789s. They could have ordered or cancelled airplanes even before the publication of the report. It wouldn't be included.

There are a lot of indications that LH is taking those aircraft. Also the lhgroupfleet "blog" is reporting that and they have really good sources within LH: https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfl ... ansa/fleet

And it kind of makes sense, as LH is quite tough on aircraft inspection, so it's hard to imagine that they take aircraft without doing that. So it comes in handy that ANA has outsourced that to Lufthansa Technik's Aircraft Production Inspection Program.
 
User avatar
MaxiAir
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 10:21 pm

DUSZRH wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
You're reading the Financial report wrong. As of 31st of March, they were obliged (contract) to take those 789s. They could have ordered or cancelled airplanes even before the publication of the report. It wouldn't be included.

There are a lot of indications that LH is taking those aircraft. Also the lhgroupfleet "blog" is reporting that and they have really good sources within LH: https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfl ... ansa/fleet


The page already changed MSNs/LNs they show on their page. Originally it was 1023, 1033, 1083, 1091, 1095, now 1095 is gone and replaced by 1076 and still, problem remains, 1091 also appears to be GE powered, as I tried to point out above
Flown on - 306,313,318,319,320,321,332,333,343,345,346,359,35K,388, 712,733,734,735,736,73G,738,744,748,752,753,763,77E,77L,77W, 788, 789, M11, M1F, M88, CR7,CR9, E35,E45,E75,E90,E95, AR1,AR8, DHT,DH1,DH4, and some more ;)
 
DUSZRH
Posts: 265
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:17 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 11:17 pm

MaxiAir wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE

I think it's a (relatively) safe bet to say that these five aircraft will be the ones going to Lufthansa.
Feel free to add to or critique this, but that's just my point of view.



How sure are you that LN1091 is still with RR engines? Planespotters net shows it with GE and also lists N2005B as its second test reg.
https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... ays/rqjwjy

LN 1091 is also listed as N2005B with KPAE Blogspot
https://kpae.blogspot.com/2021/03/paine ... rch-5.html

And this video clearly shows N2005B equipped with GE engines
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I0b8dhIp-4



Good point, what about ZE437 ANA 787-9 line 1095? Seems to be RR and also Everett.

Btw. LH CEO Spohr stated that 4 will be from Everett, one from Charleston. That should be narrowing things down ;)
 
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MaxiAir
Posts: 316
Joined: Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Wed May 05, 2021 11:32 pm

DUSZRH wrote:
Good point, what about ZE437 ANA 787-9 line 1095? Seems to be RR and also Everett.

Btw. LH CEO Spohr stated that 4 will be from Everett, one from Charleston. That should be narrowing things down ;)


1095 also GE
https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/13 ... 11040?s=21
Flown on - 306,313,318,319,320,321,332,333,343,345,346,359,35K,388, 712,733,734,735,736,73G,738,744,748,752,753,763,77E,77L,77W, 788, 789, M11, M1F, M88, CR7,CR9, E35,E45,E75,E90,E95, AR1,AR8, DHT,DH1,DH4, and some more ;)
 
User avatar
VCVSpotter
Posts: 1766
Joined: Mon May 04, 2020 6:10 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 1:30 am

MaxiAir wrote:
VCVSpotter wrote:

Now time to look at the spreadsheet for every ANA 787-9 before LN1094. There are EXACTLY 5 aircraft:
LN1023 JA934A PAE
LN1033 JA924A CHS
LN1076 JA926A PAE
LN1083 JA927A PAE
LN1091 JA???A PAE
...


How sure are you that LN1091 is still with RR engines? Planespotters net shows it with GE and also lists N2005B as its second test reg.
https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... ays/rqjwjy

LN 1091 is also listed as N2005B with KPAE Blogspot
https://kpae.blogspot.com/2021/03/paine ... rch-5.html

And this video clearly shows N2005B equipped with GE engines
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I0b8dhIp-4


Good work! I was going just based off that spreadsheet (which I guess I should've known better lol), those photos/videos that you provided do indeed show her with GE engines. I guess the theory that the 787s will all be from one airline is blown to bits then. That opens up some more possibilities on who these aircraft could be from...

Momo1435 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Per Boeing unfilled orders, ANA has 8 789s with RRs and 1 789 with GE remaining. So, unless ANA is taking leased aircraft, it appears they will be taking most, if not all, RR 789s then.


The engine selection on Boeing's page is not always fully up to date of course, LHs selection for the 787 for example is still Not Selected even though the RR engine order was publicly announced. We'll see what happens.

It could also be the case that LH won't use the seats that are on the white tails they will get, but won't install their own product on these planes. They might another product that is also used by another airline, or better a product that would have been used by another airline that has cancelled or deferred orders making the seats available on such short notice. If this is the case it could be any of the available whitetails, it could even be mix of different original customers.


I believe that Boeing's orders page is incorrect, especially if you say that it currently lists them receiving 8 789s with RRs. LN1091 is the first of the GE 789s. Before that, there are only four RR 789s left.

MaxiAir wrote:
DUSZRH wrote:
Good point, what about ZE437 ANA 787-9 line 1095? Seems to be RR and also Everett.

Btw. LH CEO Spohr stated that 4 will be from Everett, one from Charleston. That should be narrowing things down ;)


1095 also GE
https://twitter.com/mattcawby/status/13 ... 11040?s=21


Going off this info (4 PAE, 1 CHS), let's do some more investigative work lol. Going to Lufthansa Group's original press release (linked below), they state that "Due to the dramatic impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global aviation, aircraft that had been ordered by some airlines could not be delivered in the past twelve months. Lufthansa held talks with Boeing and found a way to buy five 787-9 that were already manufactured."
https://www.lufthansagroup.com/en/newsr ... craft.html

I believe that means that these birds are (probably) over 1 year old (or will be by the time of delivery), BUT the deliveries must've been delayed due to the covid situation, which rules out aircraft that have been stored for a very long time like LN688 (I'd assume that the press release would mean 2020 build). Now time to look at undelivered RR engined 787-9s that are over 1 year old, let's split it up by PAE and CHS builds. I'll still be referencing the original spreadsheet, link here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... dit#gid=19

To try to retain accuracy, I'll cross-check information with this production list:
https://www.planespotters.net/productio ... /787/787-9

PAE:
LN #/Airline/Type/Registration/Roll Out Date
LN955 Norwegian 789 G-CLJN 11/25/19
LN971 Norwegian 789 SE-RXA 1/9/20
LN983 Norwegian 789 SE-RXB 2/4/20
LN997 Gulf Air 789 A9C-FH 3/4/20
LN1011 Norwegian 789 SE-RXC 5/13/20
LN1023 ANA 789 JA934A 6/16/20
LN1033 ANA 789 JA924A 7/15/20
LN1039 Gulf Air 789 A9C-FI 7/31/20
LN1083 ANA 789 JA927A 1/20/21
LN1085 Gulf Air 789 A9C-FJ 1/28/21

CHS:
LN988 Air Europa 789 EC-NGQ 2/20/20
LN992 Air Europa 789 EC-NGR 3/10/20
LN1028 Air Europa 789 EC-NIL 6/24/20
LN1036 LOT 789 SP-LSH 7/17/20
LN1042 Air Europa 789 EC-NJH 8/7/20
LN1046 LOT 789 SP-LSI 8/18/20
LN1060 Air Premia 789 HL8388 9/24/20
LN1070 Air Europa 789 EC-NLR 10/26/20
LN1076 ANA 789 JA926A 1/6/21
LN1082 Air Premia 789 HL8389 3/3/21
LN1086 LAN 789 CC-BGQ 1/18/21 (Note: Not listed on planespotters)
LN1092 LAN 789 CC-BGR ??? (Note: Not listed on planespotters)
LN1090 Air Europa 789 EC-NDM or EC-NMD (conflict between 787 tables & planespotters) ???

Four aircraft have to be from PAE, while one is from CHS. It really looks like the four aircraft are indeed the Norwegian 787-9s. One other combination I could see is the G- reg Norwegian (odd one out with the G- reg) with 3 Gulf Airs, but I'd put money that the four from PAE are the Norwegians.

Now the trick is figuring out who the final CHS 789 is from:
From my understanding with an internal source, Air Premia is taking theirs for sure, so that's not an option.
The odd one out in the CHS production list is ANA 789 JA926A. The only RR ANA 789 from CHS, and it's already been established that ANA doesn't want the RR 787s. I'd say that one is a possibility.
If that one is not an option, I could easily see it being one of the LOTs (LN1036 is leased from ALC, LN1046 is leased from CIT) or maybe one of the LANs (LATAM Group have sent so many A359s and 787s to the desert).

Regardless, it looks like Lufthansa will need to spend some time (and money) configuring all of these to their specific standards and will likely not retain the existing cabins (for fleet commonality).

Feel free to add or critique this as usual :)
Love to see the discussion and ideas being bounced back and forth, hopefully we can get to the bottom of this mystery!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Just a normal teenager juggling AP classes and airplanes. No biggie • Love the 747 & 777-9
 
Blerg
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 5:51 am

I think LH Group will have to do some serious soul searching regarding OS. Their long-haul fleet is down to 4 B767 and 6 B772 out of which 3 are parked. Two B767 have already been retired. Average age of their B777 fleet is 20 years and 23 for the B767s.
I still hope that some B787s will be moved to OS.
 
rhysflies
Posts: 6
Joined: Sat Dec 12, 2020 8:28 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 7:14 am

VCVSpotter wrote:
Regardless, it looks like Lufthansa will need to spend some time (and money) configuring all of these to their specific standards and will likely not retain the existing cabins (for fleet commonality).

Lufthansa's hard product has been substandard for some time....remember they won Skytrax in 2017 for a business class seat that wasn't due to fly until 2020. It now looks like it might be 2022 or later.......

Even their newish A350s don't have direct aisle access in business class. Everyone criticised BA for the age of their old product - but Lufthansa is in that seat now. They'll get a new business class on the 777x, but I'm not sure how widely they'll be able to retrofit it. Surely they would have started installing it on other aircraft deliveries already if they could, given the delay?
 
Swiss03
Posts: 41
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:50 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 7:26 am

Blerg wrote:
I think LH Group will have to do some serious soul searching regarding OS. Their long-haul fleet is down to 4 B767 and 6 B772 out of which 3 are parked. Two B767 have already been retired. Average age of their B777 fleet is 20 years and 23 for the B767s.
I still hope that some B787s will be moved to OS.


Might be slightly out of place in this thread , however from my perspective I could see this as the future LH group fleet ca. 2025

brussles Airlines:
A333 (from SQ and CX)
Swiss:
B789
B77W
Edelweiss:
B789
Austrian:
A333 (transferred from LX) (all are 242MTOW)
A332 (transferred from Sun express )
Lufthansa
B77X
B789
A359
A333 (possible )
B748

the reason I don't see the 330s staying at LX is that the cabins are getting really tired, they haven't been replaced since delivery and are getting to be 12 years old now, they are now substandard for the LX fleet but no replacement program has been announced, they would fit perfectly to replace OS africa and N. America routes

just my 2 cents.
 
Blerg
Posts: 4813
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:42 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 7:35 am

Swiss03 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I think LH Group will have to do some serious soul searching regarding OS. Their long-haul fleet is down to 4 B767 and 6 B772 out of which 3 are parked. Two B767 have already been retired. Average age of their B777 fleet is 20 years and 23 for the B767s.
I still hope that some B787s will be moved to OS.


Might be slightly out of place in this thread , however from my perspective I could see this as the future LH group fleet ca. 2025

brussles Airlines:
A333 (from SQ and CX)
Swiss:
B789
B77W
Edelweiss:
B789
Austrian:
A333 (transferred from LX) (all are 242MTOW)
A332 (transferred from Sun express )
Lufthansa
B77X
B789
A359
A333 (possible )
B748

the reason I don't see the 330s staying at LX is that the cabins are getting really tired, they haven't been replaced since delivery and are getting to be 12 years old now, they are now substandard for the LX fleet but no replacement program has been announced, they would fit perfectly to replace OS africa and N. America routes

just my 2 cents.


Austrian Airlines has some longer flights like LAX, can the A330s in LH Group make it from VIE without restrictions?
 
VSMUT
Posts: 5498
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2016 11:40 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 7:44 am

Blerg wrote:
Swiss03 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I think LH Group will have to do some serious soul searching regarding OS. Their long-haul fleet is down to 4 B767 and 6 B772 out of which 3 are parked. Two B767 have already been retired. Average age of their B777 fleet is 20 years and 23 for the B767s.
I still hope that some B787s will be moved to OS.


Might be slightly out of place in this thread , however from my perspective I could see this as the future LH group fleet ca. 2025

brussles Airlines:
A333 (from SQ and CX)
Swiss:
B789
B77W
Edelweiss:
B789
Austrian:
A333 (transferred from LX) (all are 242MTOW)
A332 (transferred from Sun express )
Lufthansa
B77X
B789
A359
A333 (possible )
B748

the reason I don't see the 330s staying at LX is that the cabins are getting really tired, they haven't been replaced since delivery and are getting to be 12 years old now, they are now substandard for the LX fleet but no replacement program has been announced, they would fit perfectly to replace OS africa and N. America routes

just my 2 cents.


Austrian Airlines has some longer flights like LAX, can the A330s in LH Group make it from VIE without restrictions?


That's probably a stretch without sacrificing payload. But the question is if Lufthansa can justify giving Austrian the latest expensive aircraft vs taking a sacrifice on the few longest routes. It's not like they are without options if demand outstrips an A330-200 or reduced payload A330-300 - they can always divert excess traffic via Frankfurt, München or Zürich.
 
Swiss03
Posts: 41
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:50 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 9:29 am

Blerg wrote:
Swiss03 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I think LH Group will have to do some serious soul searching regarding OS. Their long-haul fleet is down to 4 B767 and 6 B772 out of which 3 are parked. Two B767 have already been retired. Average age of their B777 fleet is 20 years and 23 for the B767s.
I still hope that some B787s will be moved to OS.


Might be slightly out of place in this thread , however from my perspective I could see this as the future LH group fleet ca. 2025

brussles Airlines:
A333 (from SQ and CX)
Swiss:
B789
B77W
Edelweiss:
B789
Austrian:
A333 (transferred from LX) (all are 242MTOW)
A332 (transferred from Sun express )
Lufthansa
B77X
B789
A359
A333 (possible )
B748

the reason I don't see the 330s staying at LX is that the cabins are getting really tired, they haven't been replaced since delivery and are getting to be 12 years old now, they are now substandard for the LX fleet but no replacement program has been announced, they would fit perfectly to replace OS africa and N. America routes

just my 2 cents.


Austrian Airlines has some longer flights like LAX, can the A330s in LH Group make it from VIE without restrictions?


that was roughly the reason I included the ex sunexpress A332, they should have the range for the tokyo, CPT, LAX flights
 
LSZH34
Posts: 652
Joined: Thu Jul 16, 2015 5:33 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 9:36 am

Swiss03 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I think LH Group will have to do some serious soul searching regarding OS. Their long-haul fleet is down to 4 B767 and 6 B772 out of which 3 are parked. Two B767 have already been retired. Average age of their B777 fleet is 20 years and 23 for the B767s.
I still hope that some B787s will be moved to OS.


Austrian:
A333 (transferred from LX) (all are 242MTOW)


That is not true. They are all 233t.
 
Swiss03
Posts: 41
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:50 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 9:38 am

LSZH34 wrote:
Swiss03 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
I think LH Group will have to do some serious soul searching regarding OS. Their long-haul fleet is down to 4 B767 and 6 B772 out of which 3 are parked. Two B767 have already been retired. Average age of their B777 fleet is 20 years and 23 for the B767s.
I still hope that some B787s will be moved to OS.


Austrian:
A333 (transferred from LX) (all are 242MTOW)


That is not true. They are all 233t.


oh ok, then I was mistaken in my research
sorry about that
 
Swiss03
Posts: 41
Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2017 2:50 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 9:43 am

interestingly Swiss has just announced, they are reducing their long-haul airbus fleet by 5 aircraft.
Source: https://www.aerotelegraph.com/swiss-kue ... irbus-jets (in german)

this does point towards the A340s leaving the fleet, however, I find this quite odd as at the moment the A340 is the backbone of the long haul fleet, all but a couple of A333 are parked in Jordan.
furthermore for future fleet needs the A330 does not have enough range for most destinations (bar US. east coast and central. Africa/middle east ) and the 77W is too big for some of their long-haul routes (i.e Johannesburg). Adding to that is that it is the only long-haul aircraft in the Edelweiss fleet which should give some fleet commonality points)

however, would it make sense to cut the A333 fleet from 14 to 9?
maybe these could go to EW discover as the EDW birds did.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1004
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 9:47 am

Swiss03 wrote:
interestingly Swiss has just announced, they are reducing their long-haul airbus fleet by 5 aircraft.
Source: https://www.aerotelegraph.com/swiss-kue ... irbus-jets (in german)

this does point towards the A340s leaving the fleet, however, I find this quite odd as at the moment the A340 is the backbone of the long haul fleet, all but a couple of A333 are parked in Jordan.
furthermore for future fleet needs the A330 does not have enough range for most destinations (bar US. east coast and central. Africa/middle east ) and the 77W is too big for some of their long-haul routes (i.e Johannesburg). Adding to that is that it is the only long-haul aircraft in the Edelweiss fleet which should give some fleet commonality points)

however, would it make sense to cut the A333 fleet from 14 to 9?
maybe these could go to EW discover as the EDW birds did.


I think it is the A333s that will leave and it should not make an operational difference for LX as the A333 and A343 are somewhat equal, with the A343 having new interieur.

Additionally LX also slashed almost 800 jobs and will reduce destinations.
 
User avatar
DABYT
Posts: 259
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 5:59 pm

Re: LH ordering 5 more A350s and 5 more 787-9

Thu May 06, 2021 11:50 am

rhysflies wrote:
Lufthansa's hard product has been substandard for some time....remember they won Skytrax in 2017 for a business class seat that wasn't due to fly until 2020. It now looks like it might be 2022 or later.......

Even their newish A350s don't have direct aisle access in business class. Everyone criticised BA for the age of their old product - but Lufthansa is in that seat now. They'll get a new business class on the 777x, but I'm not sure how widely they'll be able to retrofit it. Surely they would have started installing it on other aircraft deliveries already if they could, given the delay?


LH has already announced the 5 787 entering service this year will be equipped with a modified business class allowing direct aisle access from every seat.

Source: https://www.aero.de/news-39551/Lufthansa-Dreamliner-kommen-mit-aufgewerteter-Business-Class.html

As for the introduction of the new business class no decision has been made yet.

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