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ANA787
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DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 3:13 pm

DL appears to have cut MNL completely from schedules. Wasn’t this due to resume this coming fall?
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 4:08 pm

ICN-MNL been cut.
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 4:22 pm

Not surprised at all. I always found that 5th freedom flight to be odd and a relic of the past. Aside from Hong Kong and Singapore, most people traveling to Southeast Asia are tourists/VFR flyers.

It is much more efficient for Delta to just throw US originating passengers bound for Southeast Asia onto KE flights connecting on Seoul, or sell them a seat on a CI plane through TPE. And with regard to SIN and HKG, I can't see Delta try and waste money in near ULH flights to those cities, competing against CX and SQ.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 4:22 pm

With DL focusing on domestic markets and European destinations that are open to vaccinated Americans, it makes sense to focus widebodies away from places like Manila that are closed.
 
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usdcaguy
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 4:33 pm

That appears to be the case. What a loss. To think of the NW hub at NRT disappearing, all those flights for senior crew going away and now KE doing all flying outside of JP, KR and CN. DL, like most American firms, wants to farm out labor to lower-cost countries. It may make stockholders more money, but it robs employees of some great opportunities.
 
FURUREFA
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 4:42 pm

Is the MNL flight attendant base still around?

What’s left otherwise? Just NRT interpreters ?
 
ScottB
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 4:48 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
That appears to be the case. What a loss. To think of the NW hub at NRT disappearing, all those flights for senior crew going away and now KE doing all flying outside of JP, KR and CN. DL, like most American firms, wants to farm out labor to lower-cost countries. It may make stockholders more money, but it robs employees of some great opportunities.


Let's be clear: the former NWA hub at NRT was going away, no matter what. Newer, smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft with greater range (A330, 787, A350) coupled with liberalized bilaterals meant that passengers could fly non-stop from the U.S. to a greater number of airports in East Asia/Southeast Asia, eliminating a stop at NRT. Who would want to fly something like BOS-MSP-NRT-HKG when you could just go non-stop on CX? NWA relied heavily on consolidator tickets to fill those 744s at the NRT hub, but that's not a high-margin business. Further, the business demand for TYO is focused on HND rather than NRT, and with HND opening up to a growing number of non-stop frequencies to the U.S., NRT wasn't even attractive to O&D passengers in DL's hubs.

MNL specifically is largely a low-yield VFR/guest worker market. It's not something which will work well in a time when a pandemic is closing or restricting borders for indefinite periods.
 
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janders
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 4:59 pm

NWA NRT operation died years ago. Delta had already announced it was leaving NRT entirely in favor of consolidating Tokyo ops at HND prior to COVD.

The former NRT intra-Asia tags died one by one - BKK, HKG, SIN etc, so dropping the short lived ICN-MNL tag is not exactly a shock.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
steex
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 5:11 pm

ScottB wrote:
usdcaguy wrote:
MNL specifically is largely a low-yield VFR/guest worker market. It's not something which will work well in a time when a pandemic is closing or restricting borders for indefinite periods.


Exactly this. Recall that, in killing its NRT operation, DL moved only MNL service over to ICN - the reason for this was that Korea/Philippines is not open skies to Manila and there was not additional capacity available to Korean carriers, but DL could add service as a carrier from a third country that was allowed in the bilateral agreement. Basically, KE couldn't add more ICN-MNL if it wanted, but DL/KE could add another ICN-MNL as a DL fifth freedom. That seemed like a nice expansion plan a few years ago, but as ScottB notes, extra capacity clearly doesn't sound so appealing in a closed VFR/worker market right now.
 
jbs2886
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 5:19 pm

steex wrote:
ScottB wrote:
usdcaguy wrote:
MNL specifically is largely a low-yield VFR/guest worker market. It's not something which will work well in a time when a pandemic is closing or restricting borders for indefinite periods.


Exactly this. Recall that, in killing its NRT operation, DL moved only MNL service over to ICN - the reason for this was that Korea/Philippines is not open skies to Manila and there was not additional capacity available to Korean carriers, but DL could add service as a carrier from a third country that was allowed in the bilateral agreement. Basically, KE couldn't add more ICN-MNL if it wanted, but DL/KE could add another ICN-MNL as a DL fifth freedom. That seemed like a nice expansion plan a few years ago, but as ScottB notes, extra capacity clearly doesn't sound so appealing in a closed VFR/worker market right now.


I wonder when things open back up if the VFR traffic will have a quick boost because of pent-up demand. If so, DL could relaunch this pretty fast (look at all the summer flights with just a few months lead time). But, likely KE can cover it anyways.
 
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IrishAyes
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 5:46 pm

what will happen to the DL (formerly NW) MNL-based employees? crazy to believe that just a few years ago, there were 2x Delta 744s flying MNLNRT and MNLNGO.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 6:04 pm

Further incentive for UA to look at SFO-MNL again ;)
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ContinentalEWR
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 6:11 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
Not surprised at all. I always found that 5th freedom flight to be odd and a relic of the past. Aside from Hong Kong and Singapore, most people traveling to Southeast Asia are tourists/VFR flyers.

It is much more efficient for Delta to just throw US originating passengers bound for Southeast Asia onto KE flights connecting on Seoul, or sell them a seat on a CI plane through TPE. And with regard to SIN and HKG, I can't see Delta try and waste money in near ULH flights to those cities, competing against CX and SQ.


Agreed. MNL has grown as a business destination but it remains mostly VFR, long stage length, and tough for US carriers to serve and through a hub with an alliance anchor partner makes little sense. The NW routes into MNL were from a different era, with different a/c, and considerations. I'm actually surprised it took this long for MNL to be dropped.
 
tphuang
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 6:31 pm

Not a surprise at all. I didn't think it was going to last when it was first announced. With COVID, it has no shot.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 6:31 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Further incentive for UA to look at SFO-MNL again ;)


Sure. A high-cost airline, with premium widebody configs, going into a low-yield VFR market. What could go wrong? :mrgreen:
 
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Devilfish
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 6:37 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
DL, like most American firms, wants to farm out labor to lower-cost countries. It may make stockholders more money, but it robs employees of some great opportunities.

ScottB wrote:
Newer, smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft with greater range (A330, 787, A350) coupled with liberalized bilaterals meant that passengers could fly non-stop from the U.S. to a greater number of airports in East Asia/Southeast Asia, eliminating a stop at NRT.

steex wrote:
Basically, KE couldn't add more ICN-MNL if it wanted, but DL/KE could add another ICN-MNL as a DL fifth freedom.

jbs2886 wrote:
I wonder when things open back up if the VFR traffic will have a quick boost because of pent-up demand.

Considering all of the above, it's doubtful that DL would try it all over again. What I imagine could happen after everything goes back to normal in a few years is for whatever survives of PR to pick up the slack and fly SEA-MNL nonstop ( :wink2: 251t A338, what else? ) with DL feed and code share on it - especially when the new IAF is fully operational (UA objection aside).
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
jbs2886
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 6:46 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Considering all of the above, it's doubtful that DL would try it all over again. What I imagine could happen after everything goes back to normal in a few years is for whatever survives of PR to pick up the slack and fly SEA-MNL nonstop ( :wink2: 251t A338, what else? ) with DL feed and code share on it - especially when the new IAF is fully operational (UA objection aside).


Why would DL codeshare with PR when it can route its passengers over ICN (and then keep more of the money).
 
umichman
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 7:03 pm

IrishAyes wrote:
what will happen to the DL (formerly NW) MNL-based employees? crazy to believe that just a few years ago, there were 2x Delta 744s flying MNLNRT and MNLNGO.


They haven't flown to MNL in over a year (since NRT-MNL was dropped). The planned ICN-NRT flight had yet to start due to Covid. If they had any of their own employees, I would think they would have moved on by now.
Last edited by umichman on Tue May 11, 2021 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
scottyraven
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 7:04 pm

as much as i hate to see it, this was inevitable......after covid subsides and the PI opens up again there is no reason Delta wouldnt try this again. It's true that this is a heavily VFR market, but there is freight to be hauled.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 7:20 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Why would DL codeshare with PR when it can route its passengers over ICN (and then keep more of the money).

Once bitten, twice shy...a relaunch is not assured. DL may be moving their staff to PDX. Also, doubtful pax would relish a stop and plane change at ICN when they could fly nonstop. It's arguable SEA-ICN-MNL would be more economical for them time and money wise...besides, might it not hinge on a favorable action on PR's application? IIRC, the Port of Seattle was receptive to the idea.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
jbs2886
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 7:45 pm

Devilfish wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Why would DL codeshare with PR when it can route its passengers over ICN (and then keep more of the money).

Once bitten, twice shy...a relaunch is not assured. DL may be moving their staff to PDX. Also, doubtful pax would relish a stop and plane change at ICN when they could fly nonstop. It's arguable SEA-ICN-MNL would be more economical for them time and money wise...besides, might it not hinge on a favorable action on PR's application? IIRC, the Port of Seattle was receptive to the idea.


DL is not moving its SEA hub to PDX. Smh. In fact, the recent Seattle thread on gate swaps provides evidence, if you listen to actual hearing, DL wanted to pay for the swaps itself (along with UA) to speed up the project as opposed to the Port, but UA refused. DL isn't building a fancy new SkyClub and investing more money in SEA to move everything to PDX.

You also completely missed my point, I *never* stated DL would relaunch. KE flies ICN-MNL, which is part of the DL/KE JV. DL is not going to send passengers on PR when it can send it on its own/JV metal.
 
onwFan
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 7:49 pm

Devilfish wrote:
usdcaguy wrote:
DL, like most American firms, wants to farm out labor to lower-cost countries. It may make stockholders more money, but it robs employees of some great opportunities.

ScottB wrote:
Newer, smaller, more fuel-efficient aircraft with greater range (A330, 787, A350) coupled with liberalized bilaterals meant that passengers could fly non-stop from the U.S. to a greater number of airports in East Asia/Southeast Asia, eliminating a stop at NRT.

steex wrote:
Basically, KE couldn't add more ICN-MNL if it wanted, but DL/KE could add another ICN-MNL as a DL fifth freedom.

jbs2886 wrote:
I wonder when things open back up if the VFR traffic will have a quick boost because of pent-up demand.

Considering all of the above, it's doubtful that DL would try it all over again. What I imagine could happen after everything goes back to normal in a few years is for whatever survives of PR to pick up the slack and fly SEA-MNL nonstop ( :wink2: 251t A338, what else? ) with DL feed and code share on it - especially when the new IAF is fully operational (UA objection aside).

PR has already applied to codeshare with AA and the decision is pending. Not sure why they would want to codeshare with DL, especially when AS is available and can offer three times the feed at SEA, and also more feed at both SFO and LAX. Besides, AA would offer feed at ORD and DFW, the two other destinations PR has long expressed interest in.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 9:15 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Sure. A high-cost airline, with premium widebody configs, going into a low-yield VFR market. What could go wrong? :mrgreen:


Its an opportunity waiting to be taken and was high on the list pre-COVID.

Profitability on long haul likely to be elusive for years to come for U.S. carriers (just look at folks jumping into trash Europe markets like ATH), but as part of the "new future" these are opportunities that can benefit the network in the next decade.
United has not been shy to jump into what some might view as marginal markets before, and their network team has reaffirmed their commitment to continuing to exploit new opportunities that might arise now during COVID.
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CMHARJ
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 9:50 pm

scottyraven wrote:
as much as i hate to see it, this was inevitable......after covid subsides and the PI opens up again there is no reason Delta wouldnt try this again. It's true that this is a heavily VFR market, but there is freight to be hauled.


When checking in passengers, I dreaded MNL bound passengers. MNL and Brazil were the only exceptions to the 1 bag/50lbs weight limit rule. I believe they were allowed up to two bags weighing up to 70lbs each. When they pack their bags, they literally make sure they pack every inch and weighing exactly 70lbs. This was deadweight 70lbs too. It literally felt like they packed the entire house and the kitchen sink.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 10:22 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
You also completely missed my point, I *never* stated DL would relaunch.

Not entirely...this is what you said.....
jbs2886 wrote:
If so, DL could relaunch this pretty fast (look at all the summer flights with just a few months lead time). But, likely KE can cover it anyways.


jbs2886 wrote:
KE flies ICN-MNL, which is part of the DL/KE JV. DL is not going to send passengers on PR when it can send it on its own/JV metal.

Then it wouldn't be a 5th freedom thing anymore. I was saying MNL O&D pax would opt for a SEA-MNL-SEA nonstop instead were it to be available.


onwFan wrote:
PR has already applied to codeshare with AA and the decision is pending. Not sure why they would want to codeshare with DL, especially when AS is available and can offer three times the feed at SEA, and also more feed at both SFO and LAX.

Thank you, I didn't know that. I assume you meant AA when you typed AS?

onwFan wrote:
Besides, AA would offer feed at ORD and DFW, the two other destinations PR has long expressed interest in.

ORD and DFW are iffy at best, particularly after the tumultuous year and a half just past. It would be years before PR look at both again.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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NWAESC
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 10:32 pm

CMHARJ wrote:

When checking in passengers, I dreaded MNL bound passengers. MNL and Brazil were the only exceptions to the 1 bag/50lbs weight limit rule. I believe they were allowed up to two bags weighing up to 70lbs each. When they pack their bags, they literally make sure they pack every inch and weighing exactly 70lbs. This was deadweight 70lbs too. It literally felt like they packed the entire house and the kitchen sink.


Long live the Balikbayan box!
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jbs2886
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 10:56 pm

Devilfish wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
You also completely missed my point, I *never* stated DL would relaunch.

Not entirely...this is what you said.....
jbs2886 wrote:
If so, DL could relaunch this pretty fast (look at all the summer flights with just a few months lead time). But, likely KE can cover it anyways.


jbs2886 wrote:
KE flies ICN-MNL, which is part of the DL/KE JV. DL is not going to send passengers on PR when it can send it on its own/JV metal.

Then it wouldn't be a 5th freedom thing anymore. I was saying MNL O&D pax would opt for a SEA-MNL-SEA nonstop instead were it to be available.


Huh? I said DL *could* relaunch, but that it was unlikely because KE can cover the flight. I did not say DL *would* relaunch. It does not matter if its a fifth freedom, DL and KE have a JV on TPAC traffic, which covers MNL O&D. I would disagree a nonstop MNL-SEA would get all traffic as it is very price sensitive; PR will need to have a decent revenue premium to make that flight work, DL/KE can just fill already existing flights. Furthermore, the premise that a non-stop wins is false as there are plenty of reasons we see significant connections even where non-stop options are available.
 
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spinotter
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 11:08 pm

Duplicate!
Last edited by spinotter on Tue May 11, 2021 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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spinotter
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 11:11 pm

So perhaps DL will serve only HND, ICN, PVG, and PKX in East Asia? What do people think about NGO, KIX, and FUK? GUM and SPN?
 
jbs2886
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 11:15 pm

spinotter wrote:
So perhaps DL will serve only HND, ICN, PVG, and PKX in East Asia? What do people think about NGO and FUK? GUM and SPN?


NGO will likely continue due to DTW's auto connection. Otherwise, that looks like it'll be it with DL's own metal (I think the SEA-KIX is gone, and GUM and SPN, not sure on those two). I'd like to see DL/KE make some moves from SEA like BUS (can it handle international?), secondary Japanese given KE's historically strong Japan presence, TPE, etc. I don't anticipate SIN/HKG, but crazier things have happened. I doubt we will see non-Beijing/Shanghai Chinese flights for a while from the US3.

Edit, I just think we will see US-ICN adds to connect to KE's significant network in ICN.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Tue May 11, 2021 11:58 pm

DL has already restarted DTW-NGO, although only at 1x weekly for the time being
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 12:37 am

LAXintl wrote:
Further incentive for UA to look at SFO-MNL again ;)


While we're at it, let's throw in some nOn-StOp from SFO/LAX to KUL and DPS ;)
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 2:07 am

CMHARJ wrote:
scottyraven wrote:
as much as i hate to see it, this was inevitable......after covid subsides and the PI opens up again there is no reason Delta wouldnt try this again. It's true that this is a heavily VFR market, but there is freight to be hauled.


When checking in passengers, I dreaded MNL bound passengers. MNL and Brazil were the only exceptions to the 1 bag/50lbs weight limit rule. I believe they were allowed up to two bags weighing up to 70lbs each. When they pack their bags, they literally make sure they pack every inch and weighing exactly 70lbs. This was deadweight 70lbs too. It literally felt like they packed the entire house and the kitchen sink.

Hahaha, I literally LOL....well pretty much the same for many VFR markets. Some destinations, especially those to Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan or India to certain extent, one can see airlines servicing these destinations have different categories of checked in luggage. A lot of them will be going away from their home country for long period and unlikely to return in two or three years hence the big luggage. Upon return, they will again pack their whole dormitory back home. Not forgetting plasma TV of different sizes.......Airlines are printing money through these ancillary revenue.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 2:38 am

jbs2886 wrote:
Huh? I said DL *could* relaunch, but that it was unlikely because KE can cover the flight. I did not say DL *would* relaunch.

Neither did I...to wit.....
Devilfish wrote:
...a relaunch is not assured
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
scottyraven
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 3:30 am

NWAESC wrote:
CMHARJ wrote:

When checking in passengers, I dreaded MNL bound passengers. MNL and Brazil were the only exceptions to the 1 bag/50lbs weight limit rule. I believe they were allowed up to two bags weighing up to 70lbs each. When they pack their bags, they literally make sure they pack every inch and weighing exactly 70lbs. This was deadweight 70lbs too. It literally felt like they packed the entire house and the kitchen sink.


Long live the Balikbayan box!

haha, the balikbayan box was my introduction to back pain......loading a can of those was hell
 
scottyraven
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 3:37 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
CMHARJ wrote:
scottyraven wrote:
as much as i hate to see it, this was inevitable......after covid subsides and the PI opens up again there is no reason Delta wouldnt try this again. It's true that this is a heavily VFR market, but there is freight to be hauled.


When checking in passengers, I dreaded MNL bound passengers. MNL and Brazil were the only exceptions to the 1 bag/50lbs weight limit rule. I believe they were allowed up to two bags weighing up to 70lbs each. When they pack their bags, they literally make sure they pack every inch and weighing exactly 70lbs. This was deadweight 70lbs too. It literally felt like they packed the entire house and the kitchen sink.

Hahaha, I literally LOL....well pretty much the same for many VFR markets. Some destinations, especially those to Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan or India to certain extent, one can see airlines servicing these destinations have different categories of checked in luggage. A lot of them will be going away from their home country for long period and unlikely to return in two or three years hence the big luggage. Upon return, they will again pack their whole dormitory back home. Not forgetting plasma TV of different sizes.......Airlines are printing money through these ancillary revenue.

i think you made a point here that is often overlooked when VFR markets get bashed here......overweight bag fees, extra bag fees are good sources of revenue that doesnt get discussed. i dont know how much that revenue is, but i bet it's more than we think.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 11:03 am

spinotter wrote:
So perhaps DL will serve only HND, ICN, PVG, and PKX in East Asia? What do people think about NGO, KIX, and FUK? GUM and SPN?


KIX is very tough, outside the pandemic. Carriers have struggled with it. NGO, I think remains, due to industrial ties. GUM, SPN likely will stick around as a consequence of US military presence there, but otherwise ripe to be handed off to a SkyTeam partner. DL's TPAC presence, though stronger than AA's, is very much diminished from what it inherited with NW and likely to continue to be right-sized and become more dependent on alliances.
 
NZ321
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 11:31 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
spinotter wrote:
So perhaps DL will serve only HND, ICN, PVG, and PKX in East Asia? What do people think about NGO, KIX, and FUK? GUM and SPN?


KIX is very tough, outside the pandemic. Carriers have struggled with it. NGO, I think remains, due to industrial ties. GUM, SPN likely will stick around as a consequence of US military presence there, but otherwise ripe to be handed off to a SkyTeam partner. DL's TPAC presence, though stronger than AA's, is very much diminished from what it inherited with NW and likely to continue to be right-sized and become more dependent on alliances.


Let's not forget about DL's LAX-SYD route (also Asia-Pacific); DL was getting quite cosy with the old VA, not sure about the newly capitalised airline? How important is a USA-SYD link for DL and Skyteam? There are no Skyteam airlines downunder to provide an alternative.

Why doesn't DL use its newly acquired and more efficient aircraft to launch a non-stop to MNL, say from HNL or SEA? After all, HNL wouldn't be too difficult - they already fly to HNL and - pre-Covid - beyond HNL to 3 destinations in Japan (NRT, KIX, NGO). Meanwhile MNL is within easy range of the A339 from SEA. However - I reckon as others have intimated above - DL will not be returning to MNL and will rely on KE (and MU) for the South East Asia market going forward.

With the rapid loss of destinations in the Asia Pacific at DL, UA is sure to dominate well into the future, while opportunities exist for both Hawaiian and American.
Plane mad!
 
codc10
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 11:34 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
GUM, SPN likely will stick around as a consequence of US military presence there, but otherwise ripe to be handed off to a SkyTeam partner.


Delta has been out of GUM/SPN/ROR for years, long before the pandemic.
 
panamair
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Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 11:40 am

umichman wrote:
They haven't flown to MNL in over a year (since NRT-MNL was dropped). The planned ICN-NRT flight had yet to start due to Covid. If they had any of their own employees, I would think they would have moved on by now.


Believe it or not, Delta did re-launch MNL in January this year from ICN. Unfortunately, it came exactly at the same time that the Philippines government imposed a ban on Americans (and some other third-country nationals) due to the number of Covid cases in the US and the variants being detected there. After a few flights, they were forced to cancel the service as the ban made it almost impossible to sustain the flight.

Overall TPAC is going to take the longest to come back given the way countries in the region are managing the pandemic, the almost-zero tolerance for new infections, and the slow rates of vaccination. I really don't think we will see any recovery in TPAC flights until well into 2022 unfortunately...
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3782
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 11:50 am

Devilfish wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
You also completely missed my point, I *never* stated DL would relaunch.

Not entirely...this is what you said.....
jbs2886 wrote:
If so, DL could relaunch this pretty fast (look at all the summer flights with just a few months lead time). But, likely KE can cover it anyways.


jbs2886 wrote:
KE flies ICN-MNL, which is part of the DL/KE JV. DL is not going to send passengers on PR when it can send it on its own/JV metal.

Then it wouldn't be a 5th freedom thing anymore. I was saying MNL O&D pax would opt for a SEA-MNL-SEA nonstop instead were it to be available.


onwFan wrote:
PR has already applied to codeshare with AA and the decision is pending. Not sure why they would want to codeshare with DL, especially when AS is available and can offer three times the feed at SEA, and also more feed at both SFO and LAX.

Thank you, I didn't know that. I assume you meant AA when you typed AS?

onwFan wrote:
Besides, AA would offer feed at ORD and DFW, the two other destinations PR has long expressed interest in.

ORD and DFW are iffy at best, particularly after the tumultuous year and a half just past. It would be years before PR look at both again.



You do understand "could relaunch" is a completely different from "would relaunch."
 
OlympicATH
Posts: 256
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2001 8:43 am

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 12:22 pm

LAXintl wrote:
trash Europe markets like ATH


Excuse me?? How much time have you spent in Greece and Europe?
Your comment is borderline, to say the least.
 
User avatar
Polot
Posts: 11708
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 12:27 pm

OlympicATH wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
trash Europe markets like ATH


Excuse me?? How much time have you spent in Greece and Europe?
Your comment is borderline, to say the least.

He was clearly talking about from a yield/profitability prospective. In which case yes, ATH has traditionally been a trash market TATL.
 
ScottB
Posts: 7345
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 1:18 pm

NZ321 wrote:
Why doesn't DL use its newly acquired and more efficient aircraft to launch a non-stop to MNL, say from HNL or SEA? After all, HNL wouldn't be too difficult - they already fly to HNL and - pre-Covid - beyond HNL to 3 destinations in Japan (NRT, KIX, NGO). Meanwhile MNL is within easy range of the A339 from SEA.


There's very little O&D between HNL & MNL (and even less business traffic), so they'd be relying on double connections at HNL and a mainland hub for most traffic. Nope. The routes from HNL to Japan were all about bringing Japanese tourists to Hawai'i; it's basically Cancun for Japanese, but with better shopping.

As I said before, MNL is a heavy VFR/guest worker market. The latter is less important for U.S. carriers since there are few Filipino guest workers in the U.S. compared to, say, Gulf countries (although I think the cruise lines employ quite a few Filipino nationals). A 12-hour flight on a widebody with limited business traffic might make sense if they have absolutely nowhere else to send the aircraft, but I don't think it's likely.
 
AF773
Posts: 178
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2004 6:25 pm

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 1:39 pm

Welp...
I had booked ICN MNL ICN for Feb 2022 on Delta.
The booking just disappeared from my profile. No email sent.
I called Delta and they could not transfer me onto one of KE's two daily flights or even sell me seats on those...
Not sure when these two will decide to get along.
Next flights: NCE-CDG; CDG-CFU; CDG-DBV; NCE-CDG-CAI; NCE-CDG-CUN-MEX-CDG
 
AC4500
Posts: 590
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 2:29 pm

Devilfish wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Why would DL codeshare with PR when it can route its passengers over ICN (and then keep more of the money).

Once bitten, twice shy...a relaunch is not assured. DL may be moving their staff to PDX. Also, doubtful pax would relish a stop and plane change at ICN when they could fly nonstop. It's arguable SEA-ICN-MNL would be more economical for them time and money wise...besides, might it not hinge on a favorable action on PR's application? IIRC, the Port of Seattle was receptive to the idea.

Ah yes, because DL starting a mere 3x weekly PDX-ICN flight means that they're packing up in SEA and moving to Portland... :?
 
ContinentalEWR
Posts: 4306
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 2:50 am

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 2:32 pm

NZ321 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
spinotter wrote:
So perhaps DL will serve only HND, ICN, PVG, and PKX in East Asia? What do people think about NGO, KIX, and FUK? GUM and SPN?


KIX is very tough, outside the pandemic. Carriers have struggled with it. NGO, I think remains, due to industrial ties. GUM, SPN likely will stick around as a consequence of US military presence there, but otherwise ripe to be handed off to a SkyTeam partner. DL's TPAC presence, though stronger than AA's, is very much diminished from what it inherited with NW and likely to continue to be right-sized and become more dependent on alliances.


Let's not forget about DL's LAX-SYD route (also Asia-Pacific); DL was getting quite cosy with the old VA, not sure about the newly capitalised airline? How important is a USA-SYD link for DL and Skyteam? There are no Skyteam airlines downunder to provide an alternative.

Why doesn't DL use its newly acquired and more efficient aircraft to launch a non-stop to MNL, say from HNL or SEA? After all, HNL wouldn't be too difficult - they already fly to HNL and - pre-Covid - beyond HNL to 3 destinations in Japan (NRT, KIX, NGO). Meanwhile MNL is within easy range of the A339 from SEA. However - I reckon as others have intimated above - DL will not be returning to MNL and will rely on KE (and MU) for the South East Asia market going forward.

With the rapid loss of destinations in the Asia Pacific at DL, UA is sure to dominate well into the future, while opportunities exist for both Hawaiian and American.


I don't see DL adding HNL-MNL. More likely HA would re-start it when the market permits, or at least try it again. Not sure it was successful. I don't see DL adding SEA-MNL either. The MNL market is not very high yielding. As to TPAC broadly, a recovery there depends on COVID and the return of business travel, which drives the sector. AA can't seem to make Asia work well outside of DFW. The SEA strategy has promise but faces significant market headwinds. Hawaiian will probably reopen more TPAC markets as tourism recovery gets underway, but it is far off.
Last edited by ContinentalEWR on Wed May 12, 2021 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
User avatar
Devilfish
Posts: 7382
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 2:32 pm

rbavfan wrote:
You do understand "could relaunch" is a completely different from "would relaunch."

Certainly, I understand it much better than what you wrote there!


NZ321 wrote:
Why doesn't DL use its newly acquired and more efficient aircraft to launch a non-stop to MNL, say from HNL or SEA? After all, HNL wouldn't be too difficult - they already fly to HNL and - pre-Covid - beyond HNL to 3 destinations in Japan (NRT, KIX, NGO). Meanwhile MNL is within easy range of the A339 from SEA.

I doubt MNL would be within easy range of even the 251t A339 from SEA...it's considerably farther than ICN and westbound too. Please also note the amusing anecdotes about the balikbayan boxes above. :boxedin:
Last edited by Devilfish on Wed May 12, 2021 2:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15053
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 2:34 pm

ScottB wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
Why doesn't DL use its newly acquired and more efficient aircraft to launch a non-stop to MNL, say from HNL or SEA? After all, HNL wouldn't be too difficult - they already fly to HNL and - pre-Covid - beyond HNL to 3 destinations in Japan (NRT, KIX, NGO). Meanwhile MNL is within easy range of the A339 from SEA.


There's very little O&D between HNL & MNL (and even less business traffic), so they'd be relying on double connections at HNL and a mainland hub for most traffic. Nope. The routes from HNL to Japan were all about bringing Japanese tourists to Hawai'i; it's basically Cancun for Japanese, but with better shopping.

As I said before, MNL is a heavy VFR/guest worker market. The latter is less important for U.S. carriers since there are few Filipino guest workers in the U.S. compared to, say, Gulf countries (although I think the cruise lines employ quite a few Filipino nationals). A 12-hour flight on a widebody with limited business traffic might make sense if they have absolutely nowhere else to send the aircraft, but I don't think it's likely.


This is all correct. What people forget about NW is that it had very little fleet flexibility TPAC, especially from DTW and MSP. NW never operated 767s or 777s, the D10s couldn't make it when they were around, the 333s couldn't make it, the 332 fleet wasn't that large, and the 350 obviously wasn't around yet. So, NW was essentially forced to use 744s on routes to Japan that were high-yielding but not that large. Filling in seats (and the hold) with MNL passengers made sense. And as others have pointed out, NW catered heavily to the Filipino VFR market, to the point that there were designated checkin positions at ORD for MNL passengers as late as 2006.

Today, DL has smaller widebodies that can fly from virtually any point in the US to Japan and Korea, so it's a much different situation.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
AC4500
Posts: 590
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: DL cuts MNL?

Wed May 12, 2021 2:35 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
I don't see DL adding HNL-SEA.

Did you mean HNL-MNL?

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