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GCT64
Posts: 1944
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed May 26, 2021 7:49 am

jbs2886 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
GCT64 wrote:
People seem to forget that Ryanair (the parent corporation of Ryanair, Malta Air, Lauda Europe etc.) already operates almost 30 A320s (at Lauda Europe).


Just thirty in a fleet of ~450 (and acquired by acquisition, not Ryanair order) is simply incidental.


Pretty confident Lauda didn't have the 30 aircraft, Ryanair started acquiring more (used) A320s.


Correct, a cursory check suggests they were acquiring additional (used) A320s as recently as July 2020.
 
RoyalBrunei757
Posts: 727
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Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:04 pm

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 021-08-31/

LONDON/BRUSSELS, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Ryanair does not expect to do a deal with Boeing this year on a major new order of 737 MAX jets, Chief Executive Michael O'Leary said on Tuesday - but added that he could order up to 250 of the aircraft if the price was lowered.

> In July it said it might do a deal before the end of the year for a significant order of the 230-seat MAX 10.
> However O'Leary told journalists on Tuesday that he would be surprised if agreement was reached before next year.
> Hopeful to close the deal in 2022, the ball is on Boeing's court to offer best deal.

"At the moment I think the balance lies in favour of us because Boeing have recorded remarkably few orders for the aircraft, and they need a couple of large Max 10 orders."

Seems like O'Leary is trying to squeeze Boeing's ball again......and I'm sure he will succeed in doing so.
 
Noshow
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:18 pm

This is normal business just the media used this time to create more pressure.
Only if both agree they will have a deal.
 
travaz
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:31 pm

Kind of sounds like ABB with Airbus with a little more sophisticated tactic. Lets see if he invokes Airbus name in the comments. It is true that Boeing would love a large Max 10 order but Boeing also knows he is somewhat locked in,
 
inkjet7
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:36 pm

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:

Seems like O'Leary is trying to squeeze Boeing's ball again......and I'm sure he will succeed in doing so.


It's not like Ryanair will suddenly order A321s instead. So what is the real reason to talk about this in the press?
How much seats would Ryanair squeeze in if they reach almost 200 in the MAX 8-200?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 5:58 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
How much seats would Ryanair squeeze in if they reach almost 200 in the MAX 8-200?


The MAX 10 is targeting certification for 230 seats, IIRC.
 
2eng2efficient
Posts: 159
Joined: Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:30 pm

Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:15 pm

If Boeing is not playing ball on pricing (and FR is notoriously aggressive), one read is that they have significant prospective sales of the MAX 10 with other airlines and want to preserve those slots for potentially higher margin orders.
 
marcelh
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:18 pm

inkjet7 wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:

Seems like O'Leary is trying to squeeze Boeing's ball again......and I'm sure he will succeed in doing so.


It's not like Ryanair will suddenly order A321s instead.


More important: Airbus isn’t interested in O’Leary and his “negotiations”.
 
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crimsonchin
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:31 pm

But FR has no cards to play here, except rely on Boeing's goodwill. Russia & China aren't yet viable and Airbus is not an option.
 
Noshow
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:31 pm

At the end of the day Ryanair will look at both the A321neo and the MAX 10. The 10 might make more sense because it is so similar to their MAX 200 but the A321neo has the range to go transatlantic. With production rates moving up again there is a lot of production volume to be filled.
It looks like next winters demand will still be Covid affected low so any big customer will be more than welcome to pimp 2021 order books and bonuses.
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:26 pm

Noshow wrote:
At the end of the day Ryanair will look at both the A321neo and the MAX 10. The 10 might make more sense because it is so similar to their MAX 200 but the A321neo has the range to go transatlantic. With production rates moving up again there is a lot of production volume to be filled.
It looks like next winters demand will still be Covid affected low so any big customer will be more than welcome to pimp 2021 order books and bonuses.


It’s no secret that the 737 and 320 families cash cows for B & A respectively. I actually question how much production volume there really is to fill. There were a lot of deferrals over the last 18 months that are going to need to be filled at some point, and there will be a multi year ramp up to get back to 2019 levels.

FWIW, it was posted in another thread he isn’t interested in a North American expansion for now. It’s no secret that the MAX10 is what he wants.

A sale of 200 jets is great when you have production slots to fill to keep the lines busy, but today it’s at the expense of higher yielding orders. MOL can kick and scream, but the manufactures have the upper hand…for now.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 7:35 pm

Noshow wrote:
but the A321neo has the range to go transatlantic.


So many posters use this as a reason the A321neo will win orders, but it presupposes the airline wants TATL/that range. Airlines don't order for every potential route - if that were the case everyone would be order XLR and other LRs.
 
smartplane
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 8:16 pm

FlyHPN wrote:
Noshow wrote:
At the end of the day Ryanair will look at both the A321neo and the MAX 10. The 10 might make more sense because it is so similar to their MAX 200 but the A321neo has the range to go transatlantic. With production rates moving up again there is a lot of production volume to be filled.
It looks like next winters demand will still be Covid affected low so any big customer will be more than welcome to pimp 2021 order books and bonuses.


It’s no secret that the 737 and 320 families cash cows for B & A respectively. I actually question how much production volume there really is to fill. There were a lot of deferrals over the last 18 months that are going to need to be filled at some point, and there will be a multi year ramp up to get back to 2019 levels.

FWIW, it was posted in another thread he isn’t interested in a North American expansion for now. It’s no secret that the MAX10 is what he wants.

A sale of 200 jets is great when you have production slots to fill to keep the lines busy, but today it’s at the expense of higher yielding orders. MOL can kick and scream, but the manufactures have the upper hand…for now.

The window of opportunity has passed.

Boeing's Tier 3 compensation offers three retrospective discounts to customers with MAX already on order, that place additional orders, has a 90% plus take up. While most orders haven't materialised yet, they will. Boeing doesn't need to offer even better deals, which increase customer expectations, especially when the customer has burned their bridges with Airbus more than once.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:26 pm

Agree that the deal will happen. This is how negotiating often goes. In the end, both parties will want the public appearance of a win, as well as a deal that in substance benefits them both.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:44 pm

smartplane wrote:
FlyHPN wrote:
Noshow wrote:
At the end of the day Ryanair will look at both the A321neo and the MAX 10. The 10 might make more sense because it is so similar to their MAX 200 but the A321neo has the range to go transatlantic. With production rates moving up again there is a lot of production volume to be filled.
It looks like next winters demand will still be Covid affected low so any big customer will be more than welcome to pimp 2021 order books and bonuses.


It’s no secret that the 737 and 320 families cash cows for B & A respectively. I actually question how much production volume there really is to fill. There were a lot of deferrals over the last 18 months that are going to need to be filled at some point, and there will be a multi year ramp up to get back to 2019 levels.

FWIW, it was posted in another thread he isn’t interested in a North American expansion for now. It’s no secret that the MAX10 is what he wants.

A sale of 200 jets is great when you have production slots to fill to keep the lines busy, but today it’s at the expense of higher yielding orders. MOL can kick and scream, but the manufactures have the upper hand…for now.

The window of opportunity has passed.

Boeing's Tier 3 compensation offers three retrospective discounts to customers with MAX already on order, that place additional orders, has a 90% plus take up. While most orders haven't materialised yet, they will. Boeing doesn't need to offer even better deals, which increase customer expectations, especially when the customer has burned their bridges with Airbus more than once.


Could you elaborate more on Boeing's compensation/credits and timelines? Just curious.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 9:47 pm

Noshow wrote:
At the end of the day Ryanair will look at both the A321neo and the MAX 10.


Ryanair will look at A321neos the same way WN looked at A220s - that is, not at all. He doesn't want to introduce another type to his main workgroup for capability he has no plans to use. They couldn't keep even ten frames busy for plausible TATL routes to the Caribbean. This is all bluster. He might wait it out and find Boeing weakens; he could also wait and find production slots filled by other carriers.
 
travaz
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:20 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Agree that the deal will happen. This is how negotiating often goes. In the end, both parties will want the public appearance of a win, as well as a deal that in substance benefits them both.


And that is easy to do as Ryanair will say what super deal they got and Boeing will say we don't reveal talks with customers but we welcome Ryanair's order for 200 Max 10. Both can brag publicly.
 
LDRA
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 10:44 pm

Translation: Order imminent
 
Speedy752
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:12 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Noshow wrote:
but the A321neo has the range to go transatlantic.


So many posters use this as a reason the A321neo will win orders, but it presupposes the airline wants TATL/that range. Airlines don't order for every potential route - if that were the case everyone would be order XLR and other LRs.


It totally depends on business model. Southwest, Ryanair, Easyjet, Spirit, Frontier etc would find such routes well outside their core competencies. I don’t think there’s anything stopping them from lightly loading a MAX8 and doing so if they chose. I’m not sure the economics of narrowbodies across the pond but I’d think labor costs start to eat into their relative profitability, and LCLH hasn’t really worked anywhere aside from a few operators flying nonstandard routes. I think O’Leary and team will be perfectly pleased with the capacity bump of the MAX10, though I wonder why he would try to paint it as an unpopular variant, with recent orders where splits were disclosed I think it’s well above 500 orders, and I’d suspect more to come once it’s flying and operators firm more orders.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:13 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
How much seats would Ryanair squeeze in if they reach almost 200 in the MAX 8-200?

The MAX 10 is targeting certification for 230 seats, IIRC.

Which is more seats than DL's domestic 762s had, and more than BA's 789s (granted, highly premium) offer today..... cray.
 
Speedy752
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:16 pm

crimsonchin wrote:
But FR has no cards to play here, except rely on Boeing's goodwill. Russia & China aren't yet viable and Airbus is not an option.


What did he do to Airbus? I thought other branches of Ryanair operated Airbus aircraft? I’d agree I think there’s a near zero chance of him taking a321s but just curious it’s been mentioned a few times here.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:36 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Noshow wrote:
but the A321neo has the range to go transatlantic.


So many posters use this as a reason the A321neo will win orders, but it presupposes the airline wants TATL/that range. Airlines don't order for every potential route - if that were the case everyone would be order XLR and other LRs.


It totally depends on business model. Southwest, Ryanair, Easyjet, Spirit, Frontier etc would find such routes well outside their core competencies. I don’t think there’s anything stopping them from lightly loading a MAX8 and doing so if they chose. I’m not sure the economics of narrowbodies across the pond but I’d think labor costs start to eat into their relative profitability, and LCLH hasn’t really worked anywhere aside from a few operators flying nonstandard routes. I think O’Leary and team will be perfectly pleased with the capacity bump of the MAX10, though I wonder why he would try to paint it as an unpopular variant, with recent orders where splits were disclosed I think it’s well above 500 orders, and I’d suspect more to come once it’s flying and operators firm more orders.


Exactly my point - not every business model needs that range. This forum generally assumes that greater range is always preferred, but that's not the case. JetBlue is a good example IMO - they had the A321neo on order, but acquired the LR (and XLR) as the aircraft to expand its market. That is, when B6 decided to go all in on TATL, it specifically selected an aircraft for its mission; it didn't switch all A321neo to the LR/XLR just because it needs range on some routes.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:02 am

LDRA wrote:
Translation: Order imminent


:D no doubt.and there's just 4 months left in 2021 anyway.... so perhaps a 2022 deal
 
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reidar76
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Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:06 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
inkjet7 wrote:
How much seats would Ryanair squeeze in if they reach almost 200 in the MAX 8-200?


The MAX 10 is targeting certification for 230 seats, IIRC.


At the same seating density as their 197 seat 737-8200, they will be able to squeeze in 221 seats, maybe 223 seats. Absolute max would be 227 seats, but that would be even higher density for a few rows in the mid part of the cabin.

While the 737-8200 is used on the shortest flights, the Reuters article claims Ryanair wants to utilize the 737-10 on the longer flights to the Canary Islands etc. Revenue from on board sale (food, drinks and tax-free) is very important on those longer flights. The 737-8200 reaches 197 seats by eliminating the rear galley, except for trash disposal.

I find it more likely that galley space is preserved on a potensial Ryanair 737-10, and that they might also need to add a fourth lavatory on those longer runs. My best guess would be 217 seats. That seat count would retain standard rear galley, same as on their 189 seat 737-800, but not a fourth lavatory.

Maximum certified exit limit on the 737-8200 is 210 seats, and Boeing is aiming for that FAA/EASA will allow a 230 seats exit limit on the 737-10. This compares to an exit limit of 195 seats and 244 seats on the A320 and A321. European LCC is operating the A321 with 235 and 238 seats (Easyjet and Wizzair).

The 737-10 is about four meters longer than the 737-8, while the A321 is seven meters longer than the A320.
 
VV
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:44 am

Considering A321neo's backlog, how fast could Ryanair expect to get deliveries if they wanted to switch to A321neo?
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:23 am

VV wrote:
Considering A321neo's backlog, how fast could Ryanair expect to get deliveries if they wanted to switch to A321neo?

A321neo is sold out till 2023. Earliest available I guess will be Q3,2023. They can try leasing thru lessors, Cebu Pacific, AirAsia and few others have been trying to defer delivery for next two years.
 
VV
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 5:45 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
VV wrote:
Considering A321neo's backlog, how fast could Ryanair expect to get deliveries if they wanted to switch to A321neo?

A321neo is sold out till 2023. Earliest available I guess will be Q3,2023. They can try leasing thru lessors, Cebu Pacific, AirAsia and few others have been trying to defer delivery for next two years.


Are you saying there are available A321neo out there?
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:15 am

VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
VV wrote:
Considering A321neo's backlog, how fast could Ryanair expect to get deliveries if they wanted to switch to A321neo?

A321neo is sold out till 2023. Earliest available I guess will be Q3,2023. They can try leasing thru lessors, Cebu Pacific, AirAsia and few others have been trying to defer delivery for next two years.


Are you saying there are available A321neo out there?


There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:35 am

FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
A321neo is sold out till 2023. Earliest available I guess will be Q3,2023. They can try leasing thru lessors, Cebu Pacific, AirAsia and few others have been trying to defer delivery for next two years.


Are you saying there are available A321neo out there?


There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.

@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.
 
VV
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:15 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:

Are you saying there are available A321neo out there?


There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.

@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.



Okay.

What happens if there is (are) not airline(s) that would be willing to take up those production slots or excess aircraft?
 
Eiszeit
Posts: 94
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:50 pm

Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:55 am

VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.

@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.



Okay.

What happens if there is (are) not airline(s) that would be willing to take up those production slots or excess aircraft?


It's easy they order the sub-standard non-certified product from a competitor that has shown a lack diligence before.
 
MUCFan
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:03 pm

Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:06 am

VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.

@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.



Okay.

What happens if there is (are) not airline(s) that would be willing to take up those production slots or excess aircraft?


That does not apply to the 321 which is - to put it mildly - selling like hotcakes so there will always be an airline ready to take those slots.
 
VV
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Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:26 am

Eiszeit wrote:
VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.



Okay.

What happens if there is (are) not airline(s) that would be willing to take up those production slots or excess aircraft?


It's easy they order the sub-standard non-certified product from a competitor that has shown a lack diligence before.


Why would anyone order anything when airlines are reducing capacity?
I do not understand your comment.
I think you misunderstood my question. What would happen to those A321neo production slots and/or readily available units if airlines continue to hold up on taking deliveries of new aircraft?
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1152
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:43 am

VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.

@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.



Okay.

What happens if there is (are) not airline(s) that would be willing to take up those production slots or excess aircraft?


Nothing, the VN and PR and all the other aircraft that are already accepted by the airlines are not of Airbus concern and the ones that have some on order have to take them up or forfeit their deposits. If then no one wants this specific production slot Airbus will just deliver aircraft X to customer X+1 and aircraft X+1 to X+2. What would happen is that Airbus will just postpone the production rate increase.
 
VV
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Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 10:50 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:

Are you saying there are available A321neo out there?


There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.

@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.


I think about this again and realized that Ryanair could orders those slots and/or readily available A321neo instead of ordering 737-10.
Does it make sense?
 
HTCone
Posts: 186
Joined: Sun Jul 16, 2017 7:10 pm

Re: Reuters: Ryanair pressures Boeing on MAX-10 price, says 2021 order unlikely

Wed Sep 01, 2021 12:05 pm

Speedy752 wrote:
crimsonchin wrote:
But FR has no cards to play here, except rely on Boeing's goodwill. Russia & China aren't yet viable and Airbus is not an option.


What did he do to Airbus? I thought other branches of Ryanair operated Airbus aircraft? I’d agree I think there’s a near zero chance of him taking a321s but just curious it’s been mentioned a few times here.


In a previous negotiation he went way beyond what is considered acceptable in the ordering process if not going to buy. Airbus put a lot of effort and expense into developing detailed fleet costs for the route network etc. He then used that and the competitive price to leverage Boeing harder for what ultimately became another NG offer. Ever since, Airbus flat out refuse to offer anything below list price for their aircraft to Ryanair. O'Leary is on record complaining that Airbus effectively refuse to engage with them now. Boeing went through a similar experience with Iberia about 20 years ago for a combined potential 777/737NG order that ultimately went to an A340/A320 order with Airbus.

Boeing know O'Leary is snookered here, Airbus will not engage in negotiations with him at all. They can wait him out.
 
Eiszeit
Posts: 94
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:05 pm

VV wrote:
Eiszeit wrote:
VV wrote:


Okay.

What happens if there is (are) not airline(s) that would be willing to take up those production slots or excess aircraft?


It's easy they order the sub-standard non-certified product from a competitor that has shown a lack diligence before.


Why would anyone order anything when airlines are reducing capacity?
I do not understand your comment.
I think you misunderstood my question. What would happen to those A321neo production slots and/or readily available units if airlines continue to hold up on taking deliveries of new aircraft?


Oh you are right I misunderstood your question. If there is no demand to take up aircraft in accordance to schedule, tough life airbus can demand uptake to a point, but if most airlines are unable (legal matters vs what they want) there is not much you can do. Selling them with a discount (milestones paid by previous customer) might be a straw.
 
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keesje
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:32 pm

I have no sources on Boeing - Ryanair other than what O'Leary said.

Not sure Airbus will respond. Leahy said they were only interested in profitable contracts with Ryanair, but he has retired.

I think Airbus secretly has an interest in Ryanair continuing to order 737MAX. Boeing closing a cost covering deal, continuing the MAX as long as possible (iso a superior replacement) is helping who?

Airbus is sold out for (8-9?) years at likely healthy margins and Ryanair isn't the strongest, most popular brand in Europe.
Last edited by keesje on Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
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william
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 1:38 pm

keesje wrote:
I have no sources on Boeing - Ryanair other than what O'Leary said.

Not sure Airbus will respond. Leahy said they only interested in orofitable contracts, but he has retired.

I think Airbus secretly has an interest in Ryanair continuing to order 737MAX. Boeing closing a cost covering deal, continuing the MAX as long as possible (iso a superior replacement) is helping who? Airbus is sold out for (8-9?) years and Ryanair isn't the strongest, most popular brand in Europe.


Hence, the delay, despite what Anet thinks, closeout sale prices on the Max may be over. Boeing can afford to wait, RyanAir will pay more for Airbuses.
 
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par13del
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:33 pm

william wrote:
keesje wrote:
I have no sources on Boeing - Ryanair other than what O'Leary said.

Not sure Airbus will respond. Leahy said they only interested in orofitable contracts, but he has retired.

I think Airbus secretly has an interest in Ryanair continuing to order 737MAX. Boeing closing a cost covering deal, continuing the MAX as long as possible (iso a superior replacement) is helping who? Airbus is sold out for (8-9?) years and Ryanair isn't the strongest, most popular brand in Europe.


Hence, the delay, despite what Anet thinks, closeout sale prices on the Max may be over. Boeing can afford to wait, RyanAir will pay more for Airbuses.

So no one thinks RyanAir has additional incentive to have an Airbus sub-fleet which will put them in good standing with the EU? We hear from users here that RyanAir abuses individual nations within the EU via subsidies etc., never that those governments are complicit in the abuse since the EU does not control 100% of what those individual nations do.
No such incentive exist on the Boeing side, so in my line of thinking, it is an additional non-a/c performance issue that could affect a purchase.
 
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Polot
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:37 pm

keesje wrote:
Airbus is sold out for (8-9?) years at likely healthy margins and Ryanair isn't the strongest, most popular brand in Europe.

Ryanair isn’t “popular” because of its service but it is an incredible strong and well known brand in Europe. We are talking about the largest ULCC in Europe, that (precovid at least) had no issues filling their planes and making money.

Airbus refuses to deal with Ryanair because they think it is a waste of time and they will go to Boeing anyways. It has nothing to do with brand-Airbus has no issues selling a crap ton of planes to smaller, weaker brands in Europe like Wizzair.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:46 pm

VV wrote:
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:

There are always available aircraft out there. The aircraft market has the same underlying market mechanisms as any other goods. It all comes down to what price you want to pay. I bet if I tell LHG I want one of their A321N scheduled for delivery in 2023 for 100mio Dollars they will give it to me and buy two more for 50mio$ each that are delivered in 2024.

@VV: Yes available both physical airframes and also production slots. Struggling airlines (AirAsia Group, 5J) are more than willing to give up delivery slots for next few months/years for some cash. In terms of available airframes, VN and PR are willing to let some go as they are really in financially dire situation right now. There are also about five ex-Interjet frames available and the lone Arkia.



Okay.

What happens if there is (are) not airline(s) that would be willing to take up those production slots or excess aircraft?


There always are. That’s one of the advantages of a big market and a huge backlog (even though some constantly claim the backlog is too large) - there’s always wiggle room both ways. For every airline wanting to push back deliveries, there’s another that wants them as soon as possible.

The fact Airbus is ramping up A32X production rates sooner than expected should tell you all you need to know about demand.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/airbus ... 1622112688
 
DartHerald
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:47 pm

Is there likely to be a performance issue for RyanAir with the 737-10? We've already heard that runway length limitations at some UK airports might have been an issue that resulted in Jet2 going A321 and RyanAir uses some of the same airpots - and as they fly to mostly "lesser known" destinations might some of these pose problems too?
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 2:56 pm

Polot wrote:
Ryanair isn’t “popular” because of its service but it is an incredible strong and well known brand in Europe. We are talking about the largest ULCC in Europe, that (precovid at least) had no issues filling their planes and making money.


I’m not sure what you're trying to say here, but the vast majority of people I know who have flown Ryanair see it as a ‘necessary evil’ rather than anything to do with the strength of their brand or any kind of loyalty.

It’s simply a matter of price. Love him or hate him you have to admire MOL as a businessman, he managed to acquire much of the FR current fleet in the aftermath of 911 for a song, and now he is again trying to take advantage of another aviation downturn to get the best price to renew his fleet.

The only problem I can foresee is that if he really has burned his bridges with Airbus and Boeing know this, then perhaps this time the discounts won’t be quite as large. Which in turn will lead to higher operating costs, hence higher fares, and no one in their right mind would book an FR flight for anything other than it being the cheapest option.

Edit Typos
Last edited by Daysleeper on Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Polot
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:02 pm

Daysleeper wrote:
Polot wrote:
Ryanair isn’t “popular” because of its service but it is an incredible strong and well known brand in Europe. We are talking about the largest ULCC in Europe, that (precovid at least) had no issues filling their planes and making money.


I’m not sure what you're trying to say here, but the vast majority of people I know who have flown Ryanair see it as a ‘necessary evil’ rather than anything to do with the strength of their brand or any kind of loyalty.

You just described ULCC passengers. Almost all are buying because of price, not because they really love the brand or experience. But the Ryanair brand strength isn’t something that should be discounted.
 
Daysleeper
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:12 pm

Polot wrote:

You just described ULCC passengers. Almost all are buying because of price, not because they really love the brand or experience. But the Ryanair brand strength isn’t something that should be discounted.


And what strength is that? That they are VERY well known for offering a garbage product at discount rates rather than somewhat known for doing the same?

My point is; if MOL is forced to pay a fair price for his new fleet and they are no longer the cheapest option. Then they will simply just be known for being a garbage brand, rather than that and also the cheapest.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:40 pm

kaitak wrote:
jomur wrote:
But with France wanting to ban short flights, which I can see being implemented somewhere in Europe will Ryanair need all those aircraft in the future? They might have no where to fly them to..


That's not quite correct. France is banning s/h domestic flights that can be operated by a train in less than 2h30. That still leave a lot of France which can still be served by air.

I am surprised that they will be waiting until 2026 to get these aircraft, but I guess, in the current environment, they're not in a hurry to add larger capacity aircraft (the Max 8200 will seat 197, not a lot more than the -800s; the -10 should seat about 230.)


They have ALLOT of 8200s still coming....
 
Noshow
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Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 3:43 pm

And what strength is that? That they are VERY well known for offering a garbage product at discount rates rather than somewhat known for doing the same?


They are a true low ticket price carrier by some margin. They are super punctual and well organised almost military drill style. They give you exactly what was promised (and certainly nothing more) if you strictly stick to their rules like baggage size and weight and being at the gate on time. This is no case of overpromise and underdeliver but just a no-nonsense safe flight onboard a young fleet on time.
The backside: In case of any (rare) cancelled flights you are pretty much left on your own and can try to fight for refunding later on. Expect no service. However they are child friendly and carry pre-registered handicapped people with boarding priority.

They are far from a "garbage product" for sure.
 
SEU
Posts: 364
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:10 pm

Yeah Ryanair is actually not that bad - you just have to expect what they are offering and expect nothing more. For a lot of people I know, they prefer Ryanair because of their no nonsense approach, on time reliability and cheap fares. Its amazing for us Europeans to have.
 
Eikie
Posts: 143
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Ryanair Wants to Close deal for 100+ MAX10s by Year-end

Wed Sep 01, 2021 4:23 pm

Noshow wrote:
And what strength is that? That they are VERY well known for offering a garbage product at discount rates rather than somewhat known for doing the same?


They are a true low ticket price carrier by some margin. They are super punctual and well organised almost military drill style. They give you exactly what was promised (and certainly nothing more) if you strictly stick to their rules like baggage size and weight and being at the gate on time. This is no case of overpromise and underdeliver but just a no-nonsense safe flight onboard a young fleet on time.
The backside: In case of any (rare) cancelled flights you are pretty much left on your own and can try to fight for refunding later on. Expect no service. However they are child friendly and carry pre-registered handicapped people with boarding priority.

They are far from a "garbage product" for sure.

Until things go wrong. Either on the customers side of the employees side.

Than they use there big bucks to grind you down until tot offer no resistance anymore.

The number of courtcases they had to go to (and often lose) is staggering, the amount of where travellers rights were ignored (diversions, delays, ticketing issues) is even bigger.

That's even ignoring the shady structures they set up to employe people (which in many cases have been condemned by courts and tax agencies).

They are a garbage product.
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