Qantas has come out many times to say that their interest lies in a NMA type aircraft for trans-continental and they will also use it for some of its' Asian flights

Here is a few links:

https://www.airlineratings.com/news/qan ... cess-2020/
https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 4zkto.html
https://simpleflying.com/qantas-boeing-797-nma/

I even remember seeing the NMA shown in one of the annual reports, I looked at FY 2019 and FY 2020, but I couldn't find which one...

My prediction with the Qantas a321XLR is they will take over part of the a330's role, whilst adding new thin routes like SWZ-SIN. I could imagine most of Jetstar's 788 fleet bar a few for the longer routes to HNL and ICN will migrate over to Qantas replacing the a330 when there are retired. There could also be a few extra 787s ordered too.

Yes the thin routes would work well I believe. Whether there is market or not, would be for distances/city pairs along the lines of MEL-CGK, BNE-MNL, SYD-TPE, etc. I would guess.

Qantas has been saying right aircraft for right market for a long time now and eschewing fleet strategy of the past and fleet strategy of their competitors and have been going for smaller aircraft instead of larger. Also, QF has been looking to profit from the higher yield market. So an A321XLR that captures a neiche market is definitely consistent with their strategy.

StudiodeKadent wrote:

Question for the Qantas-watchers in this thread...

Any thoughts on Qantas and the A321neo/XLR? Apparently the A321XLR is a candidate to replace QF's A330-200s.

…

Anyone have thoughts on the likelihood and feasibility of this course of action?

I’m not a fleet and route planner and don’t pretend to be. However, I’ll add my 2 cents on it.

The QF group do have a fair number of A320/321s on order. I believe the initial intent was for both fleet replacement and some expansion for JQ. But there is also the issue of QF Domestic starting to consider its fleet replacement in the very near future. And I think it’s this last point which may determine the A321 being in the domestic, and possibly (short/thin) international fleets.

The advantage I see with the A321 is catering for growth in the golden triangle (BNE-SYD-MEL). Having a configuration such as 16J/180Y or thereabouts of planes that fill would be a revenue booster. Such a configuration would also work on east coast to west coast flights, east coast to NZ and PER to SIN.

With mining doing very well in WA I believe that there is still a market for the A332 doing trans-con flights, especially once we can effectively manage CoVid.

One more scenarios I’ll propose is, if the XLRs end up doing the bulk of JQs international, maybe the 788s could replace the A332s at QF.

If QF go for 321neo/XLR for thinner routes into Asia I would hope they would at least consider putting a couple of rows of Y+ in. 3-3 in economy on a 8 hour flight doesn't sound like much fun, especially for single travellers or couples.

I think that the XLR absolutely has a place in the Qantas mainline fleet. Yes, it might not fly as far as an A330, or carry as much cargo, but an A321 is probably about half as expensive to operate as its bigger sibling, and cost has long been the sticking point for QF in Asian markets.

Besides, in a premium configuration, the XLR should be able to cover most of QF’s existing Asia network. The only routes I see being unviable are CTS, PVG and maybe MEL-HND. From what I’ve read, a 150-seat XLR should be good out to about 10 hours or so. Replacing one A330 with two A321s on a route like BNE-SIN would make QF a much more attractive choice for many customers, I would think.

qf2048 wrote:

If QF go for 321neo/XLR for thinner routes into Asia I would hope they would at least consider putting a couple of rows of Y+ in. 3-3 in economy on a 8 hour flight doesn't sound like much fun, especially for single travellers or couples.

I agree with you to an extent, but I'd like to point out two things:

Firstly, QF could always have an "economy plus" thing with extra legroom, similar to Virgin's EconomyX product.

And secondly, QF could serve the big destinations (SIN, Tokyo, possibly HKG depending on how the geopolitics unravels) with widebody product that has PE.

It isn't perfect, but hey, things are what they are.

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

StudiodeKadent wrote:

Question for the Qantas-watchers in this thread...

Any thoughts on Qantas and the A321neo/XLR? Apparently the A321XLR is a candidate to replace QF's A330-200s.

…

Anyone have thoughts on the likelihood and feasibility of this course of action?

I’m not a fleet and route planner and don’t pretend to be. However, I’ll add my 2 cents on it.

The QF group do have a fair number of A320/321s on order. I believe the initial intent was for both fleet replacement and some expansion for JQ. But there is also the issue of QF Domestic starting to consider its fleet replacement in the very near future. And I think it’s this last point which may determine the A321 being in the domestic, and possibly (short/thin) international fleets.

The advantage I see with the A321 is catering for growth in the golden triangle (BNE-SYD-MEL). Having a configuration such as 16J/180Y or thereabouts of planes that fill would be a revenue booster. Such a configuration would also work on east coast to west coast flights, east coast to NZ and PER to SIN.

With mining doing very well in WA I believe that there is still a market for the A332 doing trans-con flights, especially once we can effectively manage CoVid.

One more scenarios I’ll propose is, if the XLRs end up doing the bulk of JQs international, maybe the 788s could replace the A332s at QF.

That is how I could see it going.

Have QF said they will replace the 738/332 with either A or B or could be a mix of both? Also the A333 fleet, the oldest A332s are from 2002/03 and the A333s from 03/05. Then newest A332s delivered through till 2013 and 738s 2014 so an 8-10 year replacement cycle.

A Qantas A380 flight QF6013 LAX-AUH currently en route. Is this a positioning flight for RTS or to storage / maintenance?

metalinyoni wrote:

A Qantas A380 flight QF6013 LAX-AUH currently en route. Is this a positioning flight for RTS or to storage / maintenance?

Repositioning flight for heavy maintenance (I believe a D-Check). Unknown where VH-OQC will go once maintenance has finished.

ZK-NBT wrote:

That is how I could see it going.

Have QF said they will replace the 738/332 with either A or B or could be a mix of both? Also the A333 fleet, the oldest A332s are from 2002/03 and the A333s from 03/05. Then newest A332s delivered through till 2013 and 738s 2014 so an 8-10 year replacement cycle.

I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.

A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.

But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.

Newcastle Airport wants flights again to NZ. Perhaps Jetstar would be interested in it. Can't see Qantas or Air NZ being all that keen. Virgins service had low load factors of just 52% on their 737. So what might be more suitable is to use a regional jet such as the E190 to be a better fit on the route.

https://simpleflying.com/newcastle-will ... d-flights/

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

That is how I could see it going.

Have QF said they will replace the 738/332 with either A or B or could be a mix of both? Also the A333 fleet, the oldest A332s are from 2002/03 and the A333s from 03/05. Then newest A332s delivered through till 2013 and 738s 2014 so an 8-10 year replacement cycle.

I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.

A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.

But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.

737M8 and A322 or 321?

QF could need close to 100 in the long run with 75 738s and some of the A332 fleet plus expansion.

ben175 wrote:

Flyingsottsman wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Personally I wouldn’t read anything into any announcements, SYD is the strongest Australian route so it’s the first to resume, weather it does this year or not we will see how that pans out.

I agree with you there, Sydney is the place to be, I live in Melbourne, yesterday I walked down Elizabeth Street to go to a local hobby shop on Flinders Street, Melbourne CBD is a dump of a place dirty streets, poor homeless, Street Baggers, and the number of shops that are now empty and have for lease signs on them, Swanston Street is not much better, the main shopping strips in the city of Melbourne empty shops and the shops that are open are just junk shops. Why would you come into the city, I go in cause I have to work in there. There is nothing to bring people here, this Government has destroyed the city, so I understand why Sydney is the best performer with Brisbane second, I don't think Air Canada will come back, Korean Air did not come back, Melbourne and Victoria have fallen so far behind and we have the most unpredictable Government at the moment we don't know if we can travel just in case they do a sudden lock down, it make going interstate for a holiday hard to plan, out of the main land capitals Melbourne will be the last, city to be fully back on line as far as airlines returning to or new airlines starting up services. It was hard to take in yesterday walking down Elizabeth Street.

If you think Elizabeth St is the pinnacle representation of a gold standard Melbourne, you clearly don’t get out much! Go have a meal and a drink in Windsor or Fitzroy.

The CBD is not the reason why people travel here. And saying that, some of the best restaurants in the city are located there and yes, they’re still operating.

I get out when we are aloud to, and I work in the City, there are some great restaurants in the suburbs, the Lord Mayor of Melbourne wants the city to open up, but that part of Melbourne where I walked down is a dump the same as Swanston Street, and I love working in the city, even before covid it needed a major overhaul its just sad to see it today the way it is.

aerokiwi wrote:

eta unknown wrote:

Remember the sole reason Bain got control of VA was because VA was days from insolvency and Bain was the only contender who offered an immediate cash injection- it definitely wasn't a case of only $1 more in the eyes of the Administrators.

Oh really? I hadn't heard that. Do you have a source?

Re Melbourne's central CBD being a dump of a place right now - fleeting, surely. Flew down for a weekend back in Feb or March and had a brilliant time. The CBD was humming, went to the Comedy Fest, fantastic cocktail bars then up to Fitzroy to a bar or two. The atmosphere was brilliant and everyone seemed to be relishing things. Back to Sydney - honestly the CBD here has never been a destination in its own right and is just as dank and empty as ever.

So cheer up. Melbourne will bounce back because it has a spirited CBD that is a destination in its own right, something Sydney sadly lacks. Though it is apparent all Australian cities are less buzzy with the lack of international students. As soon as the current outbreak is stamped out people will return to Melbourne in droves, because it's pretty great. And the ultra low cost of fares right now - the lowest in ten years! - can only help things.

Yeah you are right my friend, I guess just feeling flat still from the last lock down its just how I felt when I walked down Elizabeth Street the other day I guess out of all the Australian States we for some reason have done it the hardest.

Flyingsottsman wrote:

ben175 wrote:

Flyingsottsman wrote:

I agree with you there, Sydney is the place to be, I live in Melbourne, yesterday I walked down Elizabeth Street to go to a local hobby shop on Flinders Street, Melbourne CBD is a dump of a place dirty streets, poor homeless, Street Baggers, and the number of shops that are now empty and have for lease signs on them, Swanston Street is not much better, the main shopping strips in the city of Melbourne empty shops and the shops that are open are just junk shops. Why would you come into the city, I go in cause I have to work in there. There is nothing to bring people here, this Government has destroyed the city, so I understand why Sydney is the best performer with Brisbane second, I don't think Air Canada will come back, Korean Air did not come back, Melbourne and Victoria have fallen so far behind and we have the most unpredictable Government at the moment we don't know if we can travel just in case they do a sudden lock down, it make going interstate for a holiday hard to plan, out of the main land capitals Melbourne will be the last, city to be fully back on line as far as airlines returning to or new airlines starting up services. It was hard to take in yesterday walking down Elizabeth Street.

If you think Elizabeth St is the pinnacle representation of a gold standard Melbourne, you clearly don’t get out much! Go have a meal and a drink in Windsor or Fitzroy.

The CBD is not the reason why people travel here. And saying that, some of the best restaurants in the city are located there and yes, they’re still operating.

I get out when we are aloud to, and I work in the City, there are some great restaurants in the suburbs, the Lord Mayor of Melbourne wants the city to open up, but that part of Melbourne where I walked down is a dump the same as Swanston Street, and I love working in the city, even before covid it needed a major overhaul its just sad to see it today the way it is.

I do agree Swanston and Elizabeth needed cleaning up before covid, and the atmosphere on swanston isn’t helped by the ongoing metro construction, but they are still bustling thoroughfares. I was in the cbd yesterday, half expecting it to be still largely deserted since the last lockdown but was pleasantly surprised by how packed the place actually was. People everywhere. Couldn’t get a spare seat at any eateries in emporium or central and Swanston was a sea of people.
There are more noticeably more homeless people on the streets than a year+ ago which is sad but increasing homelessness in the CBD has been an ongoing issue for at least the last 10 years I’ve been regularly frequenting the cbd for leisure.

Melbournes CBD is still much more vibrant than Sydney’s. Most recent visit there was in April and took note how large parts of its cbd is dark cold and lifeless concrete facaded streets. Sydney as a city has a lot to offer, but most it’s cbd is very uninspiring.

You guys are making me miss Melbourne so much, especially Melbourne! Can't wait to fly to Down Under once the borders reopened. Looking forward to another road trip!

Are the new 787 transcons staffed by international crew? I assume they would be as mainline domestic wouldn’t be trained on the type. Good to get some of those stood down FAs back in the air.

ZK-NBT wrote:

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

That is how I could see it going.

Have QF said they will replace the 738/332 with either A or B or could be a mix of both? Also the A333 fleet, the oldest A332s are from 2002/03 and the A333s from 03/05. Then newest A332s delivered through till 2013 and 738s 2014 so an 8-10 year replacement cycle.

I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.

A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.

But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.

737M8 and A322 or 321?

QF could need close to 100 in the long run with 75 738s and some of the A332 fleet plus expansion.

I definitely think you are right, except for the older A332s retirement, QF will be waiting on what the NMA/797 becomes as this prospective order will be for the 737-800 replacement...

Also QF might try to take advantage of some of the 737 M8, white tails if there are any left, or early production slots similar to their bargain purchase of the early 737-800s from American's Order List after 9-11

Doesn't Qantas still have a lot of orders and options for the B787, going back to the program's launch announcement, at insanely low pricing? I wonder if those could be brought up as replacements for the A330 on trans-con and Asia-Pacific flights, or 'traded in' on a sweetheart deal for the MAX? Personally I would like to see
- A220 for QantasLink
- A321neo replace B737 for Qantas mainline
- B787-9 or even 787-10 replace domestic & international A330s
- A350s replace A380s as those are retired

aschachter wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.

A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.

But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.

737M8 and A322 or 321?

QF could need close to 100 in the long run with 75 738s and some of the A332 fleet plus expansion.

I definitely think you are right, except for the older A332s retirement, QF will be waiting on what the NMA/797 becomes as this prospective order will be for the 737-800 replacement...

Also QF might try to take advantage of some of the 737 M8, white tails if there are any left, or early production slots similar to their bargain purchase of the early 737-800s from American's Order List after 9-11

Last read Boeing has almost cleared all those white tails, less than 10 left. However with close to 1000 MAX cancellation from last year and earlier this year, I am sure Boeing will find some good slots for QF. With Boeing current non-committment towards NMA/797 project, maybe QF could utilise some of the coming Jetstar A321neo temporarily or swap some 787 into domstic flying until Boeing make up their mind.

JQ will launch BNE-PER from November with 5 weekly service. This is in addition to the OOL service.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/travel/air- ... 881907813z

CraigAnderson wrote:

Doesn't Qantas still have a lot of orders and options for the B787, going back to the program's launch announcement, at insanely low pricing? I wonder if those could be brought up as replacements for the A330 on trans-con and Asia-Pacific flights, or 'traded in' on a sweetheart deal for the MAX? Personally I would like to see
- A220 for QantasLink
- A321neo replace B737 for Qantas mainline
- B787-9 or even 787-10 replace domestic & international A330s
- A350s replace A380s as those are retired

If I am not mistaken most of, if not all those purchase right and options have already expired. Back then they cancelled their 35 B787-9 order, they moved forward 50 B787-9 options and purchase rights by almost two years, available for delivery from 2016. This was not firmed up.

Boeing 787-9: Original order for eight with 15 options and 30 purchase rights. Six additional aircraft ordered in May 2018. Final number: 14 with 11 in fleet, 3 to be delivered.

Boeing 787-8: Original order for 15, later revised to 14. Final number: 11 in fleet.

Please do correct me if I am wrong.

aschachter wrote:

I definitely think you are right, except for the older A332s retirement, QF will be waiting on what the NMA/797 becomes as this prospective order will be for the 737-800 replacement...

Also QF might try to take advantage of some of the 737 M8, white tails if there are any left, or early production slots similar to their bargain purchase of the early 737-800s from American's Order List after 9-11

I don’t want to start another A vs B argument here, there’s already more than enough in these forums. The Boeing NMA in reality is just a number of different ideas and is most like 8+, but more likely 10+ years away. Airbus are in the position of currently testing a new, larger CFRP wing so it makes are re-winged A32X more probable and hence, sooner to market.

If QF were to pick A, my guess is that there would be a fair proportion of A321s in the mix. If there is no change made to the models, then today’s A320 would in effect become the new A319. I mean that in terms of role. If an actual A319 sized aircraft was required, then a QFLink A220-300 would be suitable.

CraigAnderson wrote:

Doesn't Qantas still have a lot of orders and options for the B787, going back to the program's launch announcement, at insanely low pricing? I wonder if those could be brought up as replacements for the A330 on trans-con and Asia-Pacific flights, or 'traded in' on a sweetheart deal for the MAX? Personally I would like to see
- A220 for QantasLink
- A321neo replace B737 for Qantas mainline
- B787-9 or even 787-10 replace domestic & international A330s
- A350s replace A380s as those are retired

I believe they may still have a few options left but a lot will have expired by now; not sure if the pandemic enabled them to be extended though.

The A220 is a great plane but, as Alliance has shown, there is much money to be made using pre-owned planes like the E190 on these services. The difference in capital cost is why the E190 was a disaster for VA but a boon for QQ. QF may find it makes just as much sense retiring the 717s as they age and continuing to expand the wet-lease with Alliance. Of course, this assumes QF remains barred from buying a majority stake in Alliance but it is hard to see how they can overcome the competition hurdles that would make a full takeover possible.

The A320/321 v MAX is a long argument. Chances are that, whilst the Airbus is arguably the better plane, Boeing will be more willing to provide killer deals and attractive production slots. The transition cost will also be higher if Airbus were to be successful making the sums just that bit harder.

It is arguable if the 787 is the right plane for domestic. Absence an NMA, which is still a decade away at least, the easiest solution may be A321s or MAX10s for most of what the A332s have done domestically with the JQ 788s transferring into mainline where the capacity is needed on MEL-SYD and some trans-continental services. Given the domestic J class war is now in ceasefire, it is arguable whether the current suites are needed for domestic or whether the Premium Economy level seating of the existing 788s is OK anyway.

The 789 will undoubtedly replace most of what the A333 is currently doing internationally. The A321LR will probably take over some of the A332s international routes with QF expanding the number of routes and frequency to compensate for any capacity. For example, the daily SYD-CGK A332 would probably be replaced by a daily A321LR doing SYD-CGK and a 5 times a week MEL-CGK on another A321LR.

The A35J has already been selected as the long-term long range replacement. It will eventually replace the A380 but how all this happens is very dependent on how the market recovers from the pandemic and whether the JSA with EK continues. QF may choose to offer a premium heavy LR offering using the A350 with EK getting lots of Economy pax into Europe using the QF codeshare.

Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.

anstar wrote:

Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.

I personally believe that the A220 is the perfect replacement for the 717s and F100s at QFLink. I’ve seen tons of comments by AJ in various news articles stating that the aircraft seems ideal but they weren’t satisfied by the price. But there are 17 x F100s (@ 105Y) and 20 x 717s (@ 12J/98Y or 125Y). The A220-100 seems to cover this number of passengers.

As I commented in a previous post, if for whatever reason that QF decide that they need/require an aircraft around the A319/B737-7 size, then the A220-300 would be a logical choice and also maintain a level of fleet commonality. Not entirely sure if you’d fly this under the QF or QFLink branding.

Whilst many of us are hypothesising on QFs future passenger fleet strategy, I got thinking of freight. I think it was before the GFC started, QF we’re looking to purchase a couple of 747 Freighters. Can’t recall the exact timing or if they were looking at a couple of 747-400Fs or 747-8F. Happy to be corrected by anyone who knows more.

Another thread in the Civil forums is postulating that Airbus is looking into launching a freighter variant of the A350. So my thoughts are, if QF are considering the A35J as both a product for ULH, as well as an eventual replacement of the A380, would they again look into the A350F as well?

I can see the advantages of having a level of fleet commonality, but what are the gains, if any, of not having to wet lease from Atlas?

Thanks.

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

Whilst many of us are hypothesising on QFs future passenger fleet strategy, I got thinking of freight. I think it was before the GFC started, QF we’re looking to purchase a couple of 747 Freighters. Can’t recall the exact timing or if they were looking at a couple of 747-400Fs or 747-8F. Happy to be corrected by anyone who knows more.

Another thread in the Civil forums is postulating that Airbus is looking into launching a freighter variant of the A350. So my thoughts are, if QF are considering the A35J as both a product for ULH, as well as an eventual replacement of the A380, would they again look into the A350F as well?

I can see the advantages of having a level of fleet commonality, but what are the gains, if any, of not having to wet lease from Atlas?

Thanks.

None, QF need the capacity of the 747 for the routes they fly them on. Going from a leased product with Atlas without the need for capital expenditure, to purchasing high capital cost, smaller freighters wouldn't make a lot of sense. The only threat I see to QF stopping the Atlas leases, would be if China bans QF from operating cargo flights out of China, relations with China are bad, but I doubt they would ever get that bad and if they did, you would probably see the end of QF long haul cargo.

New Zealand have paused the travel bubble with New South Wales...

New Zealand travel bubble with NSW paused

New Zealand has temporarily paused its travel bubble with NSW in response to the state’s growing coronavirus outbreak.
The pause will come into effect on Tuesday night and be reviewed on Thursday, New Zealand’s coronavirus response minister Chris Hipkins said in a statement.

“The pause will come into force from 11.59pm NZT and be in place for 72 hours initially,” he said.

https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-u ... 48cf10d2cd


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.

Weren't Citilink already serving AVV prior to the pandemic from memory. So not a complete axing from Greater MEL for the GA group.

eta unknown wrote:

Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.

Sydney is under review too.

SCFlyer wrote:

Weren't Citilink already serving AVV prior to the pandemic from memory. So not a complete axing from Greater MEL for the GA group.

Yes, in Jan 2020, two months before COVID19 great oubreak throughout the world (March 2020). First flight landed on 25th Jan 2020. DPS-AVV via A320neo. https://www.avalonairport.com.au/media- ... rne-avalon

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:

eta unknown wrote:

Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.

Sydney is under review too.

Will be a huge change to not see GA flying into Australia if they also drop SYD.

Going from having Citilink flying into AVV from DPS, along with GA flying into MEL from both DPS and CGK, it will be a a significant change if none of those flights return.

With JQ, QF and OD all flying the MEL-DPS route pre-pandemic, with VA just about to launch flight on that route in March 2020, it was certainly a very competitive route though, so time will tell what happens when things get back to normality.

aschachter wrote:

ZK-NBT wrote:

Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.

A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.

But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.

737M8 and A322 or 321?

QF could need close to 100 in the long run with 75 738s and some of the A332 fleet plus expansion.

I definitely think you are right, except for the older A332s retirement, QF will be waiting on what the NMA/797 becomes as this prospective order will be for the 737-800 replacement...

Also QF might try to take advantage of some of the 737 M8, white tails if there are any left, or early production slots similar to their bargain purchase of the early 737-800s from American's Order List after 9-11

We are I think talking 2025 for the early A332 replacement atleast the 4 oldest and probably followed by the A333 in 2026/27. A NMA would take what atleast 5 years from official launch to ETS. I just don’t think AF can wait for that, effectively I’d have to say the A321LR will fill the NMA for QF.

If QF were to launch project sunrise in 2024/25 with an order in the next 18 months or so then you could see displaced 789s replace A333s into Asia, pre COVID I would have said 78Js, not so sure now.

eta unknown wrote:

Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.

No GA in PER just does not feel right... I remember the days of seeing two 737-400s parked next to eachother for the morning DPS runs only an hour or so apart.
Also means Batik will be the only carrier offering a J class (if they even return to the route)

I wonder if QF would ever jump back on the route with a 738? It wasn’t that long ago they served both DPS and CGK.

At one point during a past mining boom GA were operating 4 DPS-PER flights a day. As for Batik- my theory is in addition to the existing PER route, they will take over all the other DPS flights to ADL/BNE/MEL/SYD especially as subsidiary Malindo is on life support with most of their aircraft and staff gone.

IndianicWorld wrote:

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:

eta unknown wrote:

Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.

Sydney is under review too.

Will be a huge change to not see GA flying into Australia if they also drop SYD.

Going from having Citilink flying into AVV from DPS, along with GA flying into MEL from both DPS and CGK, it will be a a significant change if none of those flights return.

With JQ, QF and OD all flying the MEL-DPS route pre-pandemic, with VA just about to launch flight on that route in March 2020, it was certainly a very competitive route though, so time will tell what happens when things get back to normality.

GA's situation must be almost terminal if it cannot see a way to serve a near and major market like Australia. Typically the A330s going to CGK, whilst not always full pax wise, carried a huge amount of freight. Obviously this opens up a new opportunity for the freight airlines.

eta unknown wrote:

Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.

Really not a surprise, CGK-PER even at 4 times a week barely operated about 50% load factor outside of Indonesian public holidays. PER-DPS load factors were also very very poor (as low as 20% when they ran A333s) outside of peak season.

I was kind of surprised they continued to operate PER-CGK weekly throughout the pandemic.

Important to note neither GA or QG has operated a PER-DPS flight since May 2020 despite the articles from Perth based media citing it as a sudden axing.

I suspect we will see Citilink operate both PER-CGK and PER-DPS once travel restrictions lift.

GA's Australian operation hasn't been profitable for quite some time- not a single route makes money (although PER-CGK lost the least). As previously mentioned, for DPS 95% of the traffic is Australian originating so QF/JQ/VA have an enormous advantage and can cheaply market to their frequent flyer base. I'd imagine PER-DPS hasn't operated for months because the island was closed to tourists for COVID and Australians really can't get a travel exemption to go on holiday to DPS.

eta unknown wrote:

GA's Australian operation hasn't been profitable for quite some time- not a single route makes money (although PER-CGK lost the least). As previously mentioned, for DPS 95% of the traffic is Australian originating so QF/JQ/VA have an enormous advantage and can cheaply market to their frequent flyer base. I'd imagine PER-DPS hasn't operated for months because the island was closed to tourists for COVID and Australians really can't get a travel exemption to go on holiday to DPS.

Let's be realistic here, it would not be possible for GA to make money on any Australian route since March 2020, so that's going on 15 months now. The only exception would be unless they are charging exorbitant rates on freight, or equally exorbitant fares for any repat flights they may have operated since then.

I know they are running flights to at least SYD and MEL at the moment, but I would imagine they are purely for freight, doubtful there are many, if any passengers on these flights. So there is obviously a market for some freight, so that is some cash flow from these flights, but I would imagine they would barely break even, if at all. It would be a shame if they do stop flying to Australia, but I would imagine they would still at least serve the Bali market when it returns with Citilink, I find it hard to believe they will pass the market up entirely to the Australian carriers and Lion Air and it's affiliates.

LTEN11 wrote:

eta unknown wrote:

GA's Australian operation hasn't been profitable for quite some time- not a single route makes money (although PER-CGK lost the least). As previously mentioned, for DPS 95% of the traffic is Australian originating so QF/JQ/VA have an enormous advantage and can cheaply market to their frequent flyer base. I'd imagine PER-DPS hasn't operated for months because the island was closed to tourists for COVID and Australians really can't get a travel exemption to go on holiday to DPS.

Let's be realistic here, it would not be possible for GA to make money on any Australian route since March 2020, so that's going on 15 months now. The only exception would be unless they are charging exorbitant rates on freight, or equally exorbitant fares for any repat flights they may have operated since then.

I know they are running flights to at least SYD and MEL at the moment, but I would imagine they are purely for freight, doubtful there are many, if any passengers on these flights. So there is obviously a market for some freight, so that is some cash flow from these flights, but I would imagine they would barely break even, if at all. It would be a shame if they do stop flying to Australia, but I would imagine they would still at least serve the Bali market when it returns with Citilink, I find it hard to believe they will pass the market up entirely to the Australian carriers and Lion Air and it's affiliates.

Let me clarify: GA Australian flights haven't been profitable since 2012.

According to local news, GA will keep SYD and will be the only Australia destination for the foreseeable future even though they know it's bleeding. They insist to maintain SYD, according to the CEO to maintain connection between Indonesia and Australia.

Looks like egos seem to be at play here. I'd probably be assuming according to the local news they meant CGK-SYD rather than the largely low-yielding DPS-SYD. Although GA interlines with both of the major Australian carriers, a post-border opening codeshare agreement with one of them wouldn't hurt either.

anstar wrote:

Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.

I wonder how QF would have the money to pay for these 320/1 NEOS after COVID, especially if they have spend extra to convert the current crew from B to A, would the MAX not be more appealing?

eta unknown wrote:

LTEN11 wrote:

eta unknown wrote:

GA's Australian operation hasn't been profitable for quite some time- not a single route makes money (although PER-CGK lost the least). As previously mentioned, for DPS 95% of the traffic is Australian originating so QF/JQ/VA have an enormous advantage and can cheaply market to their frequent flyer base. I'd imagine PER-DPS hasn't operated for months because the island was closed to tourists for COVID and Australians really can't get a travel exemption to go on holiday to DPS.

Let's be realistic here, it would not be possible for GA to make money on any Australian route since March 2020, so that's going on 15 months now. The only exception would be unless they are charging exorbitant rates on freight, or equally exorbitant fares for any repat flights they may have operated since then.

I know they are running flights to at least SYD and MEL at the moment, but I would imagine they are purely for freight, doubtful there are many, if any passengers on these flights. So there is obviously a market for some freight, so that is some cash flow from these flights, but I would imagine they would barely break even, if at all. It would be a shame if they do stop flying to Australia, but I would imagine they would still at least serve the Bali market when it returns with Citilink, I find it hard to believe they will pass the market up entirely to the Australian carriers and Lion Air and it's affiliates.

Let me clarify: GA Australian flights haven't been profitable since 2012.

Well that is so sad for them. That is like 9 years of loosing money on these Australian routes and still sticking with it just for pride.

theabman wrote:

anstar wrote:

Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.

I wonder how QF would have the money to pay for these 320/1 NEOS after COVID, especially if they have spend extra to convert the current crew from B to A, would the MAX not be more appealing?

If they don't have the cash fro the 321's which they have already paid a deposit, where will they get the cash to buy the Max?

anstar wrote:

theabman wrote:

anstar wrote:

Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.

I wonder how QF would have the money to pay for these 320/1 NEOS after COVID, especially if they have spend extra to convert the current crew from B to A, would the MAX not be more appealing?

If they don't have the cash fro the 321's which they have already paid a deposit, where will they get the cash to buy the Max?

They would be able to source finance for a new fleet of whatever type as well as having no trouble attracting lessors who will always be interested in a blue-chip customer. The conversion costs for both crew and maintenance will be large but, if Airbus want to be successful, it knows it will have to contribute to these costs.