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StudiodeKadent wrote:Question for the Qantas-watchers in this thread...
Any thoughts on Qantas and the A321neo/XLR? Apparently the A321XLR is a candidate to replace QF's A330-200s.
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Anyone have thoughts on the likelihood and feasibility of this course of action?
qf2048 wrote:If QF go for 321neo/XLR for thinner routes into Asia I would hope they would at least consider putting a couple of rows of Y+ in. 3-3 in economy on a 8 hour flight doesn't sound like much fun, especially for single travellers or couples.
Chipmunk1973 wrote:StudiodeKadent wrote:Question for the Qantas-watchers in this thread...
Any thoughts on Qantas and the A321neo/XLR? Apparently the A321XLR is a candidate to replace QF's A330-200s.
…
Anyone have thoughts on the likelihood and feasibility of this course of action?
I’m not a fleet and route planner and don’t pretend to be. However, I’ll add my 2 cents on it.
The QF group do have a fair number of A320/321s on order. I believe the initial intent was for both fleet replacement and some expansion for JQ. But there is also the issue of QF Domestic starting to consider its fleet replacement in the very near future. And I think it’s this last point which may determine the A321 being in the domestic, and possibly (short/thin) international fleets.
The advantage I see with the A321 is catering for growth in the golden triangle (BNE-SYD-MEL). Having a configuration such as 16J/180Y or thereabouts of planes that fill would be a revenue booster. Such a configuration would also work on east coast to west coast flights, east coast to NZ and PER to SIN.
With mining doing very well in WA I believe that there is still a market for the A332 doing trans-con flights, especially once we can effectively manage CoVid.
One more scenarios I’ll propose is, if the XLRs end up doing the bulk of JQs international, maybe the 788s could replace the A332s at QF.
metalinyoni wrote:A Qantas A380 flight QF6013 LAX-AUH currently en route. Is this a positioning flight for RTS or to storage / maintenance?
ZK-NBT wrote:
That is how I could see it going.
Have QF said they will replace the 738/332 with either A or B or could be a mix of both? Also the A333 fleet, the oldest A332s are from 2002/03 and the A333s from 03/05. Then newest A332s delivered through till 2013 and 738s 2014 so an 8-10 year replacement cycle.
Chipmunk1973 wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:
That is how I could see it going.
Have QF said they will replace the 738/332 with either A or B or could be a mix of both? Also the A333 fleet, the oldest A332s are from 2002/03 and the A333s from 03/05. Then newest A332s delivered through till 2013 and 738s 2014 so an 8-10 year replacement cycle.
I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.
A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.
But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.
ben175 wrote:Flyingsottsman wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:
Personally I wouldn’t read anything into any announcements, SYD is the strongest Australian route so it’s the first to resume, weather it does this year or not we will see how that pans out.
I agree with you there, Sydney is the place to be, I live in Melbourne, yesterday I walked down Elizabeth Street to go to a local hobby shop on Flinders Street, Melbourne CBD is a dump of a place dirty streets, poor homeless, Street Baggers, and the number of shops that are now empty and have for lease signs on them, Swanston Street is not much better, the main shopping strips in the city of Melbourne empty shops and the shops that are open are just junk shops. Why would you come into the city, I go in cause I have to work in there. There is nothing to bring people here, this Government has destroyed the city, so I understand why Sydney is the best performer with Brisbane second, I don't think Air Canada will come back, Korean Air did not come back, Melbourne and Victoria have fallen so far behind and we have the most unpredictable Government at the moment we don't know if we can travel just in case they do a sudden lock down, it make going interstate for a holiday hard to plan, out of the main land capitals Melbourne will be the last, city to be fully back on line as far as airlines returning to or new airlines starting up services. It was hard to take in yesterday walking down Elizabeth Street.
If you think Elizabeth St is the pinnacle representation of a gold standard Melbourne, you clearly don’t get out much! Go have a meal and a drink in Windsor or Fitzroy.
The CBD is not the reason why people travel here. And saying that, some of the best restaurants in the city are located there and yes, they’re still operating.
aerokiwi wrote:eta unknown wrote:Remember the sole reason Bain got control of VA was because VA was days from insolvency and Bain was the only contender who offered an immediate cash injection- it definitely wasn't a case of only $1 more in the eyes of the Administrators.
Oh really? I hadn't heard that. Do you have a source?
Re Melbourne's central CBD being a dump of a place right now - fleeting, surely. Flew down for a weekend back in Feb or March and had a brilliant time. The CBD was humming, went to the Comedy Fest, fantastic cocktail bars then up to Fitzroy to a bar or two. The atmosphere was brilliant and everyone seemed to be relishing things. Back to Sydney - honestly the CBD here has never been a destination in its own right and is just as dank and empty as ever.
So cheer up. Melbourne will bounce back because it has a spirited CBD that is a destination in its own right, something Sydney sadly lacks. Though it is apparent all Australian cities are less buzzy with the lack of international students. As soon as the current outbreak is stamped out people will return to Melbourne in droves, because it's pretty great. And the ultra low cost of fares right now - the lowest in ten years! - can only help things.
Flyingsottsman wrote:ben175 wrote:Flyingsottsman wrote:
I agree with you there, Sydney is the place to be, I live in Melbourne, yesterday I walked down Elizabeth Street to go to a local hobby shop on Flinders Street, Melbourne CBD is a dump of a place dirty streets, poor homeless, Street Baggers, and the number of shops that are now empty and have for lease signs on them, Swanston Street is not much better, the main shopping strips in the city of Melbourne empty shops and the shops that are open are just junk shops. Why would you come into the city, I go in cause I have to work in there. There is nothing to bring people here, this Government has destroyed the city, so I understand why Sydney is the best performer with Brisbane second, I don't think Air Canada will come back, Korean Air did not come back, Melbourne and Victoria have fallen so far behind and we have the most unpredictable Government at the moment we don't know if we can travel just in case they do a sudden lock down, it make going interstate for a holiday hard to plan, out of the main land capitals Melbourne will be the last, city to be fully back on line as far as airlines returning to or new airlines starting up services. It was hard to take in yesterday walking down Elizabeth Street.
If you think Elizabeth St is the pinnacle representation of a gold standard Melbourne, you clearly don’t get out much! Go have a meal and a drink in Windsor or Fitzroy.
The CBD is not the reason why people travel here. And saying that, some of the best restaurants in the city are located there and yes, they’re still operating.
I get out when we are aloud to, and I work in the City, there are some great restaurants in the suburbs, the Lord Mayor of Melbourne wants the city to open up, but that part of Melbourne where I walked down is a dump the same as Swanston Street, and I love working in the city, even before covid it needed a major overhaul its just sad to see it today the way it is.
ZK-NBT wrote:Chipmunk1973 wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:
That is how I could see it going.
Have QF said they will replace the 738/332 with either A or B or could be a mix of both? Also the A333 fleet, the oldest A332s are from 2002/03 and the A333s from 03/05. Then newest A332s delivered through till 2013 and 738s 2014 so an 8-10 year replacement cycle.
I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.
A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.
But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.
737M8 and A322 or 321?
QF could need close to 100 in the long run with 75 738s and some of the A332 fleet plus expansion.
aschachter wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:Chipmunk1973 wrote:
I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.
A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.
But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.
737M8 and A322 or 321?
QF could need close to 100 in the long run with 75 738s and some of the A332 fleet plus expansion.
I definitely think you are right, except for the older A332s retirement, QF will be waiting on what the NMA/797 becomes as this prospective order will be for the 737-800 replacement...
Also QF might try to take advantage of some of the 737 M8, white tails if there are any left, or early production slots similar to their bargain purchase of the early 737-800s from American's Order List after 9-11
CraigAnderson wrote:Doesn't Qantas still have a lot of orders and options for the B787, going back to the program's launch announcement, at insanely low pricing? I wonder if those could be brought up as replacements for the A330 on trans-con and Asia-Pacific flights, or 'traded in' on a sweetheart deal for the MAX? Personally I would like to see
- A220 for QantasLink
- A321neo replace B737 for Qantas mainline
- B787-9 or even 787-10 replace domestic & international A330s
- A350s replace A380s as those are retired
aschachter wrote:
I definitely think you are right, except for the older A332s retirement, QF will be waiting on what the NMA/797 becomes as this prospective order will be for the 737-800 replacement...
Also QF might try to take advantage of some of the 737 M8, white tails if there are any left, or early production slots similar to their bargain purchase of the early 737-800s from American's Order List after 9-11
CraigAnderson wrote:Doesn't Qantas still have a lot of orders and options for the B787, going back to the program's launch announcement, at insanely low pricing? I wonder if those could be brought up as replacements for the A330 on trans-con and Asia-Pacific flights, or 'traded in' on a sweetheart deal for the MAX? Personally I would like to see
- A220 for QantasLink
- A321neo replace B737 for Qantas mainline
- B787-9 or even 787-10 replace domestic & international A330s
- A350s replace A380s as those are retired
anstar wrote:Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.
Chipmunk1973 wrote:Whilst many of us are hypothesising on QFs future passenger fleet strategy, I got thinking of freight. I think it was before the GFC started, QF we’re looking to purchase a couple of 747 Freighters. Can’t recall the exact timing or if they were looking at a couple of 747-400Fs or 747-8F. Happy to be corrected by anyone who knows more.
Another thread in the Civil forums is postulating that Airbus is looking into launching a freighter variant of the A350. So my thoughts are, if QF are considering the A35J as both a product for ULH, as well as an eventual replacement of the A380, would they again look into the A350F as well?
I can see the advantages of having a level of fleet commonality, but what are the gains, if any, of not having to wet lease from Atlas?
Thanks.
eta unknown wrote:Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.
SCFlyer wrote:Weren't Citilink already serving AVV prior to the pandemic from memory. So not a complete axing from Greater MEL for the GA group.
RoyalBrunei757 wrote:eta unknown wrote:Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.
Sydney is under review too.
aschachter wrote:ZK-NBT wrote:Chipmunk1973 wrote:
I think recent media reports suggest that QF will make a decision towards the end of the year, at earliest. I’m certain that Boeing would offer exceptionally good deals in terms of of the 737M8 and even the 737M10. But I personally believe that QF has become a bit more pragmatic in terms of fleet, and may well be waiting on news of a “re-winged” A32X.
A supposed A320.5, being more B738 sized, as well as a A321 and A322 would fit into the fold very well. Boeing is a very capable airframer, but if you were to bet on who is most capable of delivering what the market wants/needs, you’d be betting on Airbus, at this point in time.
But it’s an interesting industry. Tomorrow we could be salivating over a B797 or a B838.
737M8 and A322 or 321?
QF could need close to 100 in the long run with 75 738s and some of the A332 fleet plus expansion.
I definitely think you are right, except for the older A332s retirement, QF will be waiting on what the NMA/797 becomes as this prospective order will be for the 737-800 replacement...
Also QF might try to take advantage of some of the 737 M8, white tails if there are any left, or early production slots similar to their bargain purchase of the early 737-800s from American's Order List after 9-11
eta unknown wrote:Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.
IndianicWorld wrote:RoyalBrunei757 wrote:eta unknown wrote:Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.
Sydney is under review too.
Will be a huge change to not see GA flying into Australia if they also drop SYD.
Going from having Citilink flying into AVV from DPS, along with GA flying into MEL from both DPS and CGK, it will be a a significant change if none of those flights return.
With JQ, QF and OD all flying the MEL-DPS route pre-pandemic, with VA just about to launch flight on that route in March 2020, it was certainly a very competitive route though, so time will tell what happens when things get back to normality.
eta unknown wrote:Posted on the Garuda thread: GA axing MEL & PER, the latter having been under the microscope for quite some time as a better suited Citilink destination.
eta unknown wrote:GA's Australian operation hasn't been profitable for quite some time- not a single route makes money (although PER-CGK lost the least). As previously mentioned, for DPS 95% of the traffic is Australian originating so QF/JQ/VA have an enormous advantage and can cheaply market to their frequent flyer base. I'd imagine PER-DPS hasn't operated for months because the island was closed to tourists for COVID and Australians really can't get a travel exemption to go on holiday to DPS.
LTEN11 wrote:eta unknown wrote:GA's Australian operation hasn't been profitable for quite some time- not a single route makes money (although PER-CGK lost the least). As previously mentioned, for DPS 95% of the traffic is Australian originating so QF/JQ/VA have an enormous advantage and can cheaply market to their frequent flyer base. I'd imagine PER-DPS hasn't operated for months because the island was closed to tourists for COVID and Australians really can't get a travel exemption to go on holiday to DPS.
Let's be realistic here, it would not be possible for GA to make money on any Australian route since March 2020, so that's going on 15 months now. The only exception would be unless they are charging exorbitant rates on freight, or equally exorbitant fares for any repat flights they may have operated since then.
I know they are running flights to at least SYD and MEL at the moment, but I would imagine they are purely for freight, doubtful there are many, if any passengers on these flights. So there is obviously a market for some freight, so that is some cash flow from these flights, but I would imagine they would barely break even, if at all. It would be a shame if they do stop flying to Australia, but I would imagine they would still at least serve the Bali market when it returns with Citilink, I find it hard to believe they will pass the market up entirely to the Australian carriers and Lion Air and it's affiliates.
anstar wrote:Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.
eta unknown wrote:LTEN11 wrote:eta unknown wrote:GA's Australian operation hasn't been profitable for quite some time- not a single route makes money (although PER-CGK lost the least). As previously mentioned, for DPS 95% of the traffic is Australian originating so QF/JQ/VA have an enormous advantage and can cheaply market to their frequent flyer base. I'd imagine PER-DPS hasn't operated for months because the island was closed to tourists for COVID and Australians really can't get a travel exemption to go on holiday to DPS.
Let's be realistic here, it would not be possible for GA to make money on any Australian route since March 2020, so that's going on 15 months now. The only exception would be unless they are charging exorbitant rates on freight, or equally exorbitant fares for any repat flights they may have operated since then.
I know they are running flights to at least SYD and MEL at the moment, but I would imagine they are purely for freight, doubtful there are many, if any passengers on these flights. So there is obviously a market for some freight, so that is some cash flow from these flights, but I would imagine they would barely break even, if at all. It would be a shame if they do stop flying to Australia, but I would imagine they would still at least serve the Bali market when it returns with Citilink, I find it hard to believe they will pass the market up entirely to the Australian carriers and Lion Air and it's affiliates.
Let me clarify: GA Australian flights haven't been profitable since 2012.
theabman wrote:anstar wrote:Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.
I wonder how QF would have the money to pay for these 320/1 NEOS after COVID, especially if they have spend extra to convert the current crew from B to A, would the MAX not be more appealing?
anstar wrote:theabman wrote:anstar wrote:Perhaps QF will go 321 and then A220s operated by QF link AOCs.
I wonder how QF would have the money to pay for these 320/1 NEOS after COVID, especially if they have spend extra to convert the current crew from B to A, would the MAX not be more appealing?
If they don't have the cash fro the 321's which they have already paid a deposit, where will they get the cash to buy the Max?