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NZ516
Posts: 669
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:04 am

AKL-DRW, there is no market full stop.


That is a bit harsh comment. There is some demand even here in CHC there are pax travelling onto DRW via BNE or SYD etc. But not enough to fill a non stop flight I will agree on that.
Its best not to look at O and D on its own for unserved routes. A better time to consider new routes is when things are back to normal and Air NZ long haul network is fully restored. So more seats can be filled for connection pax as well not 100 per cent reliant on O and D only. So AKL could become a big transfer hub one day from Australia to Pacific, America and Canada. and one day Brazil!!
The more points served the more chance to fill seats on new markets a bit like Finnair's model.
PER, ADL, HBA, MEL, CBR, SYD, NTL, BNE, OOL via AKL to NAN, TBU, PPT, RAR, APW, HNL, YVR, LAX, SFO, ORD, IAH and EWR.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7892
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 2:35 am

NZ516 wrote:
AKL-DRW, there is no market full stop.


That is a bit harsh comment. There is some demand even here in CHC there are pax travelling onto DRW via BNE or SYD etc. But not enough to fill a non stop flight I will agree on that.
Its best not to look at O and D on its own for unserved routes. A better time to consider new routes is when things are back to normal and Air NZ long haul network is fully restored. So more seats can be filled for connection pax as well not 100 per cent reliant on O and D only. So AKL could become a big transfer hub one day from Australia to Pacific, America and Canada. and one day Brazil!!
The more points served the more chance to fill seats on new markets a bit like Finnair's model.
PER, ADL, HBA, MEL, CBR, SYD, NTL, BNE, OOL via AKL to NAN, TBU, PPT, RAR, APW, HNL, YVR, LAX, SFO, ORD, IAH and EWR.


Outside of New Zealand where are NZ going to connect people to DRW from? Geographically from the US going through SIN which at times has a DRW link would be just as fast for the small market that is there, US-SIN is very long though.

The pacific islands in many cases are underserved ex Australia bar NAN which has a huge amount of capacity, QF restarted flights from SYD as FJ were maxed out on seats in the bilateral, VA had a daily 738 from SYD/MEL/BNE as well, and NOU which QF also serve along with FJ, NZ serve SYD-RAR, while PPT seems to far and hasn’t been served since TN flew their in 2005/08. TBU and APW have a few flights from SYD/BNE.

I could see NZ to CBR, not convinced on NTL myself.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1867
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:45 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Also QF ran a AKL TSV DRW SIN 767-200 service which enabled access direct from NZ to the NT for the first time.

Ah yes; I’d forgotten about the DRW stop. Thanks.


http://www.departedflights.com/AKL83p1.html

Looking at departed flights, that flight was operating weekly with a 747 in July 1983, it wasn't operating in March 1980, by January 1989 it was running with a 767 as a redeye TSV-AKL once a week.

Now that I'm home again, I can fill in a few gaps here.

Re AKL-TSV (all QF):
Mar 1980: nothing
Jul 1983: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1985: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1986: 1x weekly 762 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN; becoming 2x weekly TSV-DRW-SIN, and then 3x weekly DRW-SIN
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN

By Jun 1991, the route was merely 3x weekly DRW-SIN
So the AKL-TSV sector operated at least from Jul 1983 to Jan 1989. IIRC it was year-round, not seasonal.

Re AKL-CNS
Jul 1983: nothing
Dec 1985: nothing
Dec 1986: nothing
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 NZ, 2x weekly 767 QF AKL-CNS, of which 1x weekly AKL-CNS-DRW-SIN
Jun 1991: 2x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1996: 1x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1997: 1x weekly 762 NZ, 2x weekly 763 QF (not continuing to DRW and SIN)

Interestingly, in Jan 1989, QF operated 2x weekly from AKL to DRW and SIN, one via CNS and one via TSV.

Again, IIRC, AKL-CNS was always year-round until NZ started doing it seasonally a few years back. For much of the time it operated 1x weekly 742, 1x weekly 767 IIRC. QF has had (at least) two bites at it.

Afraid I can't find anything relating to CHC-CNS nonstop - it's outside the scope of the materials I have access to. In Jan 1989, however, there was a 1x weekly one-stop 742 CHC-BNE-CNS, and in Jun 1991, a 1x weekly one-stop 762 CHC-SYD-CNS.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7892
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:33 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Ah yes; I’d forgotten about the DRW stop. Thanks.


http://www.departedflights.com/AKL83p1.html

Looking at departed flights, that flight was operating weekly with a 747 in July 1983, it wasn't operating in March 1980, by January 1989 it was running with a 767 as a redeye TSV-AKL once a week.

Now that I'm home again, I can fill in a few gaps here.

Re AKL-TSV (all QF):
Mar 1980: nothing
Jul 1983: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1985: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1986: 1x weekly 762 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN; becoming 2x weekly TSV-DRW-SIN, and then 3x weekly DRW-SIN
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN

By Jun 1991, the route was merely 3x weekly DRW-SIN
So the AKL-TSV sector operated at least from Jul 1983 to Jan 1989. IIRC it was year-round, not seasonal.

Re AKL-CNS
Jul 1983: nothing
Dec 1985: nothing
Dec 1986: nothing
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 NZ, 2x weekly 767 QF AKL-CNS, of which 1x weekly AKL-CNS-DRW-SIN
Jun 1991: 2x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1996: 1x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1997: 1x weekly 762 NZ, 2x weekly 763 QF (not continuing to DRW and SIN)

Interestingly, in Jan 1989, QF operated 2x weekly from AKL to DRW and SIN, one via CNS and one via TSV.

Again, IIRC, AKL-CNS was always year-round until NZ started doing it seasonally a few years back. For much of the time it operated 1x weekly 742, 1x weekly 767 IIRC. QF has had (at least) two bites at it.

Afraid I can't find anything relating to CHC-CNS nonstop - it's outside the scope of the materials I have access to. In Jan 1989, however, there was a 1x weekly one-stop 742 CHC-BNE-CNS, and in Jun 1991, a 1x weekly one-stop 762 CHC-SYD-CNS.


The AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN was on the same flight number? How many PPDEW between NZ-DRW? 20 from each side? I’m completely guessing but it wouldn’t be many? Maybe a few kiwis go in winter, population on the whole Northern Territory is 250,000, smaller than I thought tbh.

I guess TSV was the gateway to North Queensland and has a larger population than CNS. QF had only 747s between 1979 and 1985. 22x 742 by 1981 And 2 74Ls, first 743 arrived late 1984 and first 762 in 1985.

I remember for much of the mid late 1990s NZ had a weekly mainly 763 to CNS on Friday’s, later 90s it was a 742 then 744.
 
NZ516
Posts: 669
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:39 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Ah yes; I’d forgotten about the DRW stop. Thanks.


http://www.departedflights.com/AKL83p1.html

Looking at departed flights, that flight was operating weekly with a 747 in July 1983, it wasn't operating in March 1980, by January 1989 it was running with a 767 as a redeye TSV-AKL once a week.

Now that I'm home again, I can fill in a few gaps here.

Re AKL-TSV (all QF):
Mar 1980: nothing
Jul 1983: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1985: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1986: 1x weekly 762 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN; becoming 2x weekly TSV-DRW-SIN, and then 3x weekly DRW-SIN
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN

By Jun 1991, the route was merely 3x weekly DRW-SIN
So the AKL-TSV sector operated at least from Jul 1983 to Jan 1989. IIRC it was year-round, not seasonal.

Re AKL-CNS
Jul 1983: nothing
Dec 1985: nothing
Dec 1986: nothing
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 NZ, 2x weekly 767 QF AKL-CNS, of which 1x weekly AKL-CNS-DRW-SIN
Jun 1991: 2x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1996: 1x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1997: 1x weekly 762 NZ, 2x weekly 763 QF (not continuing to DRW and SIN)

Interestingly, in Jan 1989, QF operated 2x weekly from AKL to DRW and SIN, one via CNS and one via TSV.

Again, IIRC, AKL-CNS was always year-round until NZ started doing it seasonally a few years back. For much of the time it operated 1x weekly 742, 1x weekly 767 IIRC. QF has had (at least) two bites at it.

Afraid I can't find anything relating to CHC-CNS nonstop - it's outside the scope of the materials I have access to. In Jan 1989, however, there was a 1x weekly one-stop 742 CHC-BNE-CNS, and in Jun 1991, a 1x weekly one-stop 762 CHC-SYD-CNS.


Thanks for all your detailed research very interesting to see all the old schedules.

I remember watching the Cairns flight arrive in CHC from the roof deck . The flight number was QF85 and QF86 all the Qantas flights ended in 6 back then. QF36 to MEL, QF46 to SYD and QF56 to BNE .
Last edited by NZ516 on Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Unclekoru
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:40 am

DavidByrne wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Ah yes; I’d forgotten about the DRW stop. Thanks.


http://www.departedflights.com/AKL83p1.html

Looking at departed flights, that flight was operating weekly with a 747 in July 1983, it wasn't operating in March 1980, by January 1989 it was running with a 767 as a redeye TSV-AKL once a week.

Now that I'm home again, I can fill in a few gaps here.

Re AKL-TSV (all QF):
Mar 1980: nothing
Jul 1983: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1985: 1x weekly 742 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN
Dec 1986: 1x weekly 762 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN; becoming 2x weekly TSV-DRW-SIN, and then 3x weekly DRW-SIN
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN

By Jun 1991, the route was merely 3x weekly DRW-SIN
So the AKL-TSV sector operated at least from Jul 1983 to Jan 1989. IIRC it was year-round, not seasonal.

Re AKL-CNS
Jul 1983: nothing
Dec 1985: nothing
Dec 1986: nothing
Jan 1989: 1x weekly 767 NZ, 2x weekly 767 QF AKL-CNS, of which 1x weekly AKL-CNS-DRW-SIN
Jun 1991: 2x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1996: 1x weekly 762 NZ
Jan 1997: 1x weekly 762 NZ, 2x weekly 763 QF (not continuing to DRW and SIN)

Interestingly, in Jan 1989, QF operated 2x weekly from AKL to DRW and SIN, one via CNS and one via TSV.

Again, IIRC, AKL-CNS was always year-round until NZ started doing it seasonally a few years back. For much of the time it operated 1x weekly 742, 1x weekly 767 IIRC. QF has had (at least) two bites at it.

Afraid I can't find anything relating to CHC-CNS nonstop - it's outside the scope of the materials I have access to. In Jan 1989, however, there was a 1x weekly one-stop 742 CHC-BNE-CNS, and in Jun 1991, a 1x weekly one-stop 762 CHC-SYD-CNS.


From a copy of the Mar/Apr 1988 Qantas inflight magazine "Airways" I found the following news piece:

"Qantas has started services between Christchurch and Cairns. The weekly Boeing 747 service will depart Christchurch each Tuesday, returning the same day, with a flight time of around five-and-a-half hours. The new service will link New Zealand's South Island with far North Queensland for the first time. Holiday makers departing Cairns will have the flexibility of arriving on one of New Zealand's islands and returning from the other, as Qantas already operates an Auckland/Cairns service each Wednesday. The Cairns/Christchurch service is expected to prove popular with American and Japanese tourists..."

Unfortunately I can't find the relevant timetable for more specific information.
 
NZ516
Posts: 669
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:48 am

I might have to hunt around for my old QF timetable for that time.
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1867
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:49 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
The AKL-TSV-DRW-SIN was on the same flight number?

Sort of, in a complicated way. AKL-TSV-DRW went by the number QF61A, while TSV-DRW-SIN was QF61. The TSV-DRW sector went by both numbers depending on your flight; no local traffic (presumably excluding online stopover traffic) between TSV and DRW.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1867
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2007 4:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:56 am

Unclekoru wrote:
From a copy of the Mar/Apr 1988 Qantas inflight magazine "Airways" I found the following news piece:

"Qantas has started services between Christchurch and Cairns. The weekly Boeing 747 service will depart Christchurch each Tuesday, returning the same day, with a flight time of around five-and-a-half hours. The new service will link New Zealand's South Island with far North Queensland for the first time. Holiday makers departing Cairns will have the flexibility of arriving on one of New Zealand's islands and returning from the other, as Qantas already operates an Auckland/Cairns service each Wednesday. The Cairns/Christchurch service is expected to prove popular with American and Japanese tourists..."

Unfortunately I can't find the relevant timetable for more specific information.

Given that CHC-CNS was not operating by Jan 1989, it may have had a very short lifespan - perhaps just March to whenever in 1988.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
Unclekoru
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:58 am

NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:
Unclekoru wrote:
NZ also operated the 737-200 on a CHC-SYD-ZQN-CHC service during the late 90’s. “Ski express” was the tagline I believe.


Thanks - wasn’t aware of that.


Me neither - so did the bags stay on the plane and people did the passport thing and got back on, or what? What's with the same plane given the customs element? Any ideas?


No clear recollection other than seats sold CHC-SYD, SYD-ZQN and ZQN-CHC as seperate sectors rather than as thru fares in the main. A portacom setup was used to process passengers in ZQN arriving from SYD until the terminal was subsequently expanded. The service commmenced in 1995 and was seasonal. I presume (I can no longer recall exactly how events transpired) that the 737-300 was introduced to Air NZ about the same time as the ZQN runway extension was completed (1998) and that they were used to commence non-stop trans Tasman operations in both directions, replacing the previous 737-200 operation. The 737-200 may have also operated a similar CHC-MEL-ZQN-CHC seaonal service. If they did, it commenced after the SYD services. That maybe a figment of my imagination though. I'm sure there's someone on here who remembers this in more detail.
Last edited by Unclekoru on Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Unclekoru
Posts: 334
Joined: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:00 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:12 am

NZ516 wrote:
I might have to hunt around for my old QF timetable for that time.


Please share if you find anything.

DavidByrne wrote:
Unclekoru wrote:
From a copy of the Mar/Apr 1988 Qantas inflight magazine "Airways" I found the following news piece:

"Qantas has started services between Christchurch and Cairns. The weekly Boeing 747 service will depart Christchurch each Tuesday, returning the same day, with a flight time of around five-and-a-half hours. The new service will link New Zealand's South Island with far North Queensland for the first time. Holiday makers departing Cairns will have the flexibility of arriving on one of New Zealand's islands and returning from the other, as Qantas already operates an Auckland/Cairns service each Wednesday. The Cairns/Christchurch service is expected to prove popular with American and Japanese tourists..."

Unfortunately I can't find the relevant timetable for more specific information.

Given that CHC-CNS was not operating by Jan 1989, it may have had a very short lifespan - perhaps just March to whenever in 1988.


Yes, I believe it was very short lived.

As an aside, the marketing of this service prior to it's official approval by the relevant authorities led to a minor diplomatic row.
 
PA515
Posts: 1662
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:18 pm

NZ6 wrote:
77west wrote:
I thought all the NZ 772 were in storage, this video released on the 1st seems to indicate otherwise?

https://youtu.be/LL-xPU1YQMU?t=214


The video description implies it's all been filmed post the Tasman bubble opening but it's clearly not the case at all. The OKC hasn't flown for some considerable time. PA515 is the record keeper for things like this, he'll tell you the exact date it flew off to the desert.

At the start of this pandemic they were unlikely to ever fly again. We're now 12+ months on and the situation has only played out worse than everyone hoped so that slim remote chance has gone forever. As we all know, their replacements will arrive before the industry recovers enough to use them.


Yes. ZK-OKC NZ6012 AKL-LAX 30 Sep 2020, NZ6012 LAX-VCV 01 Oct 2020. It was stored at CHC from 25 Mar 2020 until about a week before it left AKL.

PA515
 
NZ6
Posts: 1884
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:27 pm

PA515 wrote:
NZ6 wrote:
77west wrote:
I thought all the NZ 772 were in storage, this video released on the 1st seems to indicate otherwise?

https://youtu.be/LL-xPU1YQMU?t=214


The video description implies it's all been filmed post the Tasman bubble opening but it's clearly not the case at all. The OKC hasn't flown for some considerable time. PA515 is the record keeper for things like this, he'll tell you the exact date it flew off to the desert.

At the start of this pandemic they were unlikely to ever fly again. We're now 12+ months on and the situation has only played out worse than everyone hoped so that slim remote chance has gone forever. As we all know, their replacements will arrive before the industry recovers enough to use them.


Yes. ZK-OKC NZ6012 AKL-LAX 30 Sep 2020, NZ6012 LAX-VCV 01 Oct 2020. It was stored at CHC from 25 Mar 2020 until about a week before it left AKL.

PA515


Well there ya go. So filmed 14+ months ago.

Do you keep a spreadsheet for all of this or do you have a paid subscription to flight tracking tools?
 
NZ6
Posts: 1884
Joined: Fri Jan 22, 2010 6:50 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:01 pm

NZ516 wrote:
AKL-DRW, there is no market full stop.


That is a bit harsh comment. There is some demand even here in CHC there are pax travelling onto DRW via BNE or SYD etc. But not enough to fill a non stop flight I will agree on that.
Its best not to look at O and D on its own for unserved routes. A better time to consider new routes is when things are back to normal and Air NZ long haul network is fully restored. So more seats can be filled for connection pax as well not 100 per cent reliant on O and D only. So AKL could become a big transfer hub one day from Australia to Pacific, America and Canada. and one day Brazil!!
The more points served the more chance to fill seats on new markets a bit like Finnair's model.
PER, ADL, HBA, MEL, CBR, SYD, NTL, BNE, OOL via AKL to NAN, TBU, PPT, RAR, APW, HNL, YVR, LAX, SFO, ORD, IAH and EWR.


It's not intended to be harsh, just emphasizing the reduced market against the one I mentioned earlier in my sentence "Oh, international. AKL-CBR, there is almost no market.".

If you look at traditional passenger number pre COVID. You could fly an ATR there once a week and still not full it. From NZ, it's all but end of line. Not completely, but very very close to.

I mean internationally, where are you looking to go for your onward connection: DIL (don't need to say much about this), DPS (Will NZ go back? Will EK go back?(doubtful)). Besides BNE, SYD offer more transit options. SIN, you'd go direct from AKL & CHC multiple times per day. SZX, it's been served direct from AKL and I believe there's other Australian & Asian gateways which would be used first and likely offer a better CX

There's some domestic connections but at the top end but again very specific markets by in large. I can't see many going to Groote Island for a holiday or business.

If you're looking at the network as a whole, Population or DRW is around 130,000 which is similar to say TRG but would be nearly 6 hours to our hub AKL. Basically you'd be trying to feed a very small market down a very long route to go to a destination far away which would've been better reached via DPS,SZX or SIN. Even North America.

Like anything in this game, finding 3x 180 people to fly to AKL-DRW a week doesn't by itself make a route viable. You need to be able to charge them an appropriate fare level on an ongoing basis to actually make it viable. Something like DRW may also top the crew over there hours meaning crew change in DRW therefore making it even more costly to operate.
 
NZ516
Posts: 669
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sat Jun 05, 2021 11:44 pm

Thanks NZ 6 for your detailed reply. Too many challenges to make DRW work. However I reckon CBR would have more chance once long haul ex AkL is restored. As many have alluded to before on here over the years.
 
NZ516
Posts: 669
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:38 am

Perhaps DRW to NZ and return was a stronger market 30 years ago than it is today. But the route was combined with TSV back then.
 
gardermoen
Posts: 1388
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 1999 9:52 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:34 am

NZ516 wrote:
Perhaps DRW to NZ and return was a stronger market 30 years ago than it is today. But the route was combined with TSV back then.


There are much more options today for the NZ-DRW market compared to 30 years ago. Yes, DRW is a very small market compared to others, but today there are multiple daily flights via connections in MEL, SYD, BNE. As much as I'd like to see NZ in DRW, I doubt there is a valid business case.
And don't forget that the QF 1980s flights were shared capacity with the likes of TSV/CNS, AKL, SIN on that.
My dad flew DRW-SIN back in 87 on one of these flights and I remember him saying how the plane looked "full" by the time it arrived in DRW from AKL/CNS.
 
PA515
Posts: 1662
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:52 am

NZ6 wrote:
Do you keep a spreadsheet for all of this or do you have a paid subscription to flight tracking tools?


Neither, just started 'Works 95' files of the Air NZ fleet about 1998 and keep updating them. When there's a configuration change, repaint, ADS-B, Wifi, etc I make a note of it.

PA515
 
PA515
Posts: 1662
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:01 am

Unclekoru wrote:
NZ321 wrote:
DavidByrne wrote:

Thanks - wasn’t aware of that.


Me neither - so did the bags stay on the plane and people did the passport thing and got back on, or what? What's with the same plane given the customs element? Any ideas?


No clear recollection other than seats sold CHC-SYD, SYD-ZQN and ZQN-CHC as seperate sectors rather than as thru fares in the main. A portacom setup was used to process passengers in ZQN arriving from SYD until the terminal was subsequently expanded. The service commmenced in 1995 and was seasonal. I presume (I can no longer recall exactly how events transpired) that the 737-300 was introduced to Air NZ about the same time as the ZQN runway extension was completed (1998) and that they were used to commence non-stop trans Tasman operations in both directions, replacing the previous 737-200 operation. The 737-200 may have also operated a similar CHC-MEL-ZQN-CHC seaonal service. If they did, it commenced after the SYD services. That maybe a figment of my imagination though. I'm sure there's someone on here who remembers this in more detail.


Checked the timetables and no MEL-ZQN 732. MEL-ZQN and BNE-ZQN commenced in 2000 with the 733.
Sat 17 Jun - 30 Sep 2000 NZ234 BNE-ZQN 0840/1410 733 JY, NZ235 ZQN-MEL 1510/1710 733 JY.
Sun 18 Jun - 01 Oct 2000 NZ236 MEL-ZQN 0925/1455 733 JY, NZ233 ZQN-BNE 1555/1755 733 JY.
And a non seasonal Sat NZ232 SYD-ZQN 0945/1450 733 JY, NZ231 ZQN-SYD 1555/1705 733 JY.

The 732 was still used ZQN-SYD in 1998. The first three 733s were NGA 11 Feb 98, NGB 02 Apr 98 and NGC 06 Aug 98.
Sat 04 Jul - 05 Sep 1998 NZ187 CHC-SYD 1745/1915 737 Y.
Sun 05 Jul - 06 Sep 1998 NZ222 SYD-ZQN 0725/1215 737 Y.

In 1999 it's not clear if a 732 was used as well as a 733, or two 733s.
Non seasonal Sat NZ232 SYD-ZQN 0945/1435 733 JY, NZ231 ZQN-SYD 1550/1705 733 JY.
Sat 12 Jun - 18 Sep 1999 NZ187 CHC-SYD 1745/1915 733 JY.
Sun 13 Jun - 19 Sep 1999 NZ222 SYD-ZQN 0725/1215 737 JY.

PA515
 
PA515
Posts: 1662
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2007 6:17 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:49 am

Air NZ Q300 ZK-NEG is back in the air after being parked since 05 Dec 2020. It had a test flight at NSN early this afternoon, then flew to CHC as NZ8847.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/zkneg

PA515
 
zkncj
Posts: 4215
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:31 am

Does anyone know when NZ last International 732 service was? Assuming it would of been somewhere around early 2000?
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7892
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:50 am

zkncj wrote:
Does anyone know when NZ last International 732 service was? Assuming it would of been somewhere around early 2000?


And what route, NOU/NLK? WLG/CHC generally got the 733s first replacing the 762. There was 733s AKL-MEL/BNE by October 1999 iirc as they were used to increase frequency.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:50 am

Qantas started their new Cairns to AKL service yesterday, the flight number is QF188 which is scheduled to depart AKL at 0850 and arrives at 1220. The return QF189 times are 1350 and 2035 be interesting to see how it performs for them. They even start the service before Air NZ resumes it's service that shows confidence.
 
PA515
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:21 pm

zkncj wrote:
Does anyone know when NZ last International 732 service was? Assuming it would of been somewhere around early 2000?

It appears to have been late Oct / early Nov 1999. The 29 March to Nov 1999 Timetable has an AKL-NOU-AKL and AKL-TBU-AKL 732 on Sat and an AKL-NLK-AKL 732 on Sun. They are 733s in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable. NZ also code shared once a week on a Royal Tongan (WR) 732 which was leased from NZ but painted in WR red and white. I think it was the ex Air Malta 732 ZK-NAF. There are no WR flights in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable.

PA515
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:48 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:

I could see NZ to CBR, not convinced on NTL myself.


Actually going back in time Newcastle has had more services to AKL than CBR has. Before Virgin Australia flew their 737 seasonal service in 2019. There was an airline called Freedom Air with it's bright yellow livery a low cost off shoot of Air NZ. They flew this route with 737s and A320s way back in 2005. So if Hobart can make a comeback after 20 odd years a city 2.5 times the size of it surely would have some potential today.
Here is the Wiki page on them which you might find useful:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Air
 
Unclekoru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:24 pm

PA515 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Does anyone know when NZ last International 732 service was? Assuming it would of been somewhere around early 2000?

It appears to have been late Oct / early Nov 1999. The 29 March to Nov 1999 Timetable has an AKL-NOU-AKL and AKL-TBU-AKL 732 on Sat and an AKL-NLK-AKL 732 on Sun. They are 733s in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable. NZ also code shared once a week on a Royal Tongan (WR) 732 which was leased from NZ but painted in WR red and white. I think it was the ex Air Malta 732 ZK-NAF. There are no WR flights in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable.

PA515


ZK-NAF is my recollection as well. It was one of only three non-hush kitted 737-200s in the NZ fleet at the time it was leased to Royal Tongan. Replaced by a 757-200 which lasted until the airlines demise.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:37 pm

NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I could see NZ to CBR, not convinced on NTL myself.


Actually going back in time Newcastle has had more services to AKL than CBR has. Before Virgin Australia flew their 737 seasonal service in 2019. There was an airline called Freedom Air with it's bright yellow livery a low cost off shoot of Air NZ. They flew this route with 737s and A320s way back in 2005. So if Hobart can make a comeback after 20 odd years a city 2.5 times the size of it surely would have some potential today.
Here is the Wiki page on them which you might find useful:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Air


I don't see it as an NZ route, it may have worked for SJ in the past, I do remember it, the thing is who goes to NTL, it is rather close to SYD, as is CBR I will add.. HBT is a tourist destination.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:40 pm

Unclekoru wrote:
PA515 wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Does anyone know when NZ last International 732 service was? Assuming it would of been somewhere around early 2000?

It appears to have been late Oct / early Nov 1999. The 29 March to Nov 1999 Timetable has an AKL-NOU-AKL and AKL-TBU-AKL 732 on Sat and an AKL-NLK-AKL 732 on Sun. They are 733s in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable. NZ also code shared once a week on a Royal Tongan (WR) 732 which was leased from NZ but painted in WR red and white. I think it was the ex Air Malta 732 ZK-NAF. There are no WR flights in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable.

PA515


ZK-NAF is my recollection as well. It was one of only three non-hush kitted 737-200s in the NZ fleet at the time it was leased to Royal Tongan. Replaced by a 757-200 which lasted until the airlines demise.


Ah the WR 752, I remember hearing they couldn't fill the 732 so the 752 must have had very good lease rates, ex BI IIRC, it spent a fair bit of the week parked at AKL when it wasn't flying. They shared a 733 with FJ in the 90s with each airlines livery on one side, probably a good arrangement for the time.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:03 pm

NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I could see NZ to CBR, not convinced on NTL myself.


Actually going back in time Newcastle has had more services to AKL than CBR has. Before Virgin Australia flew their 737 seasonal service in 2019. There was an airline called Freedom Air with it's bright yellow livery a low cost off shoot of Air NZ. They flew this route with 737s and A320s way back in 2005. So if Hobart can make a comeback after 20 odd years a city 2.5 times the size of it surely would have some potential today.
Here is the Wiki page on them which you might find useful:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Air


NTL wasn't that successful by memory. It was targeting the 'Hunter Valley' tourism region which was growing at the time along with some inbound Aussies.

It was a rather specific market segment and geographically close to SYD so ended up being rather thin.

HBA is a gateway into Tasmania. In the time of a bubble and not much else along with some growth in Tasmanian tourism over the past few years a decision was made to try it.

It's yet to prove itself and may not work. So a bit premature to compare.

CBR is a nice city but isn't a destination, NTL is very much the same when comparing it to HBA. So you're left with minimal business and VFR market which is smallish too. Both miles ahead of DRW though.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:04 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Qantas started their new Cairns to AKL service yesterday, the flight number is QF188 which is scheduled to depart AKL at 0850 and arrives at 1220. The return QF189 times are 1350 and 2035 be interesting to see how it performs for them. They even start the service before Air NZ resumes it's service that shows confidence.


Looks like 1 flight a week on a 738 for the first 2 weeks atleast, original schedule for 3 weekly A332.

QF online schedules still don't work properly makes it hard to look ahead.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:09 pm

NZ6 wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

I could see NZ to CBR, not convinced on NTL myself.


Actually going back in time Newcastle has had more services to AKL than CBR has. Before Virgin Australia flew their 737 seasonal service in 2019. There was an airline called Freedom Air with it's bright yellow livery a low cost off shoot of Air NZ. They flew this route with 737s and A320s way back in 2005. So if Hobart can make a comeback after 20 odd years a city 2.5 times the size of it surely would have some potential today.
Here is the Wiki page on them which you might find useful:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Air


NTL wasn't that successful by memory. It was targeting the 'Hunter Valley' tourism region which was growing at the time along with some inbound Aussies.

It was a rather specific market segment and geographically close to SYD so ended up being rather thin.

HBA is a gateway into Tasmania. In the time of a bubble and not much else along with some growth in Tasmanian tourism over the past few years a decision was made to try it.

It's yet to prove itself and may not work. So a bit premature to compare.

CBR is a nice city but isn't a destination, NTL is very much the same when comparing it to HBA. So you're left with minimal business and VFR market which is smallish too. Both miles ahead of DRW though.



Interesting thanks, you would think HBT would have some appeal from the US market, weather they would just do HBT though or Tasmania. Really in terms of Australia NZ have done well with the likes of MCY which is a destination in itself, while close to BNE/OOL/CNS it has lasted and grown up to 4-5 weekly over what 5 years now. I'm not sure where else NZ would go, HBT seemed obvious and CBR but maybe not.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:10 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Ah the WR 752, I remember hearing they couldn't fill the 732 so the 752 must have had very good lease rates, ex BI IIRC, it spent a fair bit of the week parked at AKL when it wasn't flying. They shared a 733 with FJ in the 90s with each airlines livery on one side, probably a good arrangement for the time.


I remember that 752 spending allot of its week being in the ANZES hangar being broken, I think it would be far to say that 752 was broken more than it was airworthy.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:08 am

In one of my "back-of-the-envelope" moments, and acknowledging that this analysis includes many assumptions, I thought it might be interesting to see exactly what loads were being carried on AKL-NTL by VA in the last two summer seasons served:

Feb 2020 - 1,104 pax, adjusted for season length: 32 ppdew, 221 per week
Jan 2020 - 3,090 pax, or 50 ppdew, 348 per week
Dec 2019 - 2,548 pax, adjusted for season length: 43 ppdew, 303 per week

Feb 2019 - 1,094 pax, adjusted for season length: 26 ppedew, 182 per week
Jan 2019 - 2,853 pax, or 46 ppdew, 322 per week
Dec 2018 - 2,166 pax, or 35 ppdew, 245 per week (appears to have operated the whole month)

Could NZ make a go of this route? It's a highly visible brand in Australia, and is in fact that country's most trusted brand (which surprises me, but it's been so for two years running). VA has no special home advantage in NTL, and no connection possibilities. Let's assume that NZ could do as well as VA on the route. In addition, NZ does have the advantage (in normal times) of an extensive Pacific and North American connection market. We know that NZ "filled the equivalent of a 77W each day with pax connecting at AKL to North America" in the past, which means that about 20% of pax on Tasman flights arriving in that time slot would have been onward bound. Even if this translated to 10% in the case of NTL, it would mean about 20-30 extra passengers per week.

On that basis, in the 2019-2020 summer season, if NZ was the sole operator, got as much traffic as VA, plus 10% for onward connections and used 170-seat A320s, then the number of aircraft that could be filled, and the number of flights that might have been offered (with a minimum 75% LF) would have been:

Dec: 1.96 (serve 2x weekly); Jan: 2.25 (serve 3x weekly); Feb: 1.43 (serve 2x weekly but 71.5% LF)

On the other hand, if 94-seat wet-leased Alliance E190s were used, the numbers would look like this:

Dec: 3.54 (serve 4x weekly); Jan: 4.07 (serve 5x weekly); Feb: 2.59 (serve 3x weekly)

We don't have information on actual loads out of NTL in the winter, but it appears that overall for Tasman routes June loads are about 70% of January loads. Let's assume 60% in the case of NTL to be conservative, and it would appear that 1.35 A320s or 2.43 E190s could be filled in the low season.

My conclusion (subject I know to the myriad "ifs and buts" that others will undoubtedly point out) is that NZ could operate (say) 2x weekly A320s to NTL for most of the year, supplemented by a third service in the peak of peak season - effectively the same level of service as AKL-HBA is getting now

If, however, it had access to a 94-seat aircraft, it might be able to justify 3x weekly E190s throughout the year, with up to 4-5x weekly during the summer peak.

Would this be worthwhile? Well, we don't know the yield that VA got, only the bums-on-seats. But assuming that NZ is still serious about building its connecting network to North America, and is keen to remain top dog on the Tasman, then it's a possibility - but at the lowest end of the possibility spectrum. But this analysis also does show that a smaller aircraft like the E190 (or A220) could open routes that would not otherwise be possible.
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Unclekoru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:17 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Unclekoru wrote:
PA515 wrote:
It appears to have been late Oct / early Nov 1999. The 29 March to Nov 1999 Timetable has an AKL-NOU-AKL and AKL-TBU-AKL 732 on Sat and an AKL-NLK-AKL 732 on Sun. They are 733s in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable. NZ also code shared once a week on a Royal Tongan (WR) 732 which was leased from NZ but painted in WR red and white. I think it was the ex Air Malta 732 ZK-NAF. There are no WR flights in the Nov 1999 to May 2000 Timetable.

PA515


ZK-NAF is my recollection as well. It was one of only three non-hush kitted 737-200s in the NZ fleet at the time it was leased to Royal Tongan. Replaced by a 757-200 which lasted until the airlines demise.


Ah the WR 752, I remember hearing they couldn't fill the 732 so the 752 must have had very good lease rates, ex BI IIRC, it spent a fair bit of the week parked at AKL when it wasn't flying. They shared a 733 with FJ in the 90s with each airlines livery on one side, probably a good arrangement for the time.


Yes, the 737-300 with the split livery was a novel idea and a sensible way of achieving decent utilisation.
 
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LamboAston
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:09 am

Unclekoru wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Unclekoru wrote:

ZK-NAF is my recollection as well. It was one of only three non-hush kitted 737-200s in the NZ fleet at the time it was leased to Royal Tongan. Replaced by a 757-200 which lasted until the airlines demise.


Ah the WR 752, I remember hearing they couldn't fill the 732 so the 752 must have had very good lease rates, ex BI IIRC, it spent a fair bit of the week parked at AKL when it wasn't flying. They shared a 733 with FJ in the 90s with each airlines livery on one side, probably a good arrangement for the time.


Yes, the 737-300 with the split livery was a novel idea and a sensible way of achieving decent utilisation.

It had also been done on the Concorde and multiple 747s if i remember correctly, so not that novel.
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NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:38 am

DavidByrne wrote:
In one of my "back-of-the-envelope" moments, and acknowledging that this analysis includes many assumptions, I thought it might be interesting to see exactly what loads were being carried on AKL-NTL by VA in the last two summer seasons served:

Feb 2020 - 1,104 pax, adjusted for season length: 32 ppdew, 221 per week
Jan 2020 - 3,090 pax, or 50 ppdew, 348 per week
Dec 2019 - 2,548 pax, adjusted for season length: 43 ppdew, 303 per week

Feb 2019 - 1,094 pax, adjusted for season length: 26 ppedew, 182 per week
Jan 2019 - 2,853 pax, or 46 ppdew, 322 per week
Dec 2018 - 2,166 pax, or 35 ppdew, 245 per week (appears to have operated the whole month)

Could NZ make a go of this route? It's a highly visible brand in Australia, and is in fact that country's most trusted brand (which surprises me, but it's been so for two years running). VA has no special home advantage in NTL, and no connection possibilities. Let's assume that NZ could do as well as VA on the route. In addition, NZ does have the advantage (in normal times) of an extensive Pacific and North American connection market. We know that NZ "filled the equivalent of a 77W each day with pax connecting at AKL to North America" in the past, which means that about 20% of pax on Tasman flights arriving in that time slot would have been onward bound. Even if this translated to 10% in the case of NTL, it would mean about 20-30 extra passengers per week.

On that basis, in the 2019-2020 summer season, if NZ was the sole operator, got as much traffic as VA, plus 10% for onward connections and used 170-seat A320s, then the number of aircraft that could be filled, and the number of flights that might have been offered (with a minimum 75% LF) would have been:

Dec: 1.96 (serve 2x weekly); Jan: 2.25 (serve 3x weekly); Feb: 1.43 (serve 2x weekly but 71.5% LF)

On the other hand, if 94-seat wet-leased Alliance E190s were used, the numbers would look like this:

Dec: 3.54 (serve 4x weekly); Jan: 4.07 (serve 5x weekly); Feb: 2.59 (serve 3x weekly)

We don't have information on actual loads out of NTL in the winter, but it appears that overall for Tasman routes June loads are about 70% of January loads. Let's assume 60% in the case of NTL to be conservative, and it would appear that 1.35 A320s or 2.43 E190s could be filled in the low season.

My conclusion (subject I know to the myriad "ifs and buts" that others will undoubtedly point out) is that NZ could operate (say) 2x weekly A320s to NTL for most of the year, supplemented by a third service in the peak of peak season - effectively the same level of service as AKL-HBA is getting now

If, however, it had access to a 94-seat aircraft, it might be able to justify 3x weekly E190s throughout the year, with up to 4-5x weekly during the summer peak.

Would this be worthwhile? Well, we don't know the yield that VA got, only the bums-on-seats. But assuming that NZ is still serious about building its connecting network to North America, and is keen to remain top dog on the Tasman, then it's a possibility - but at the lowest end of the possibility spectrum. But this analysis also does show that a smaller aircraft like the E190 (or A220) could open routes that would not otherwise be possible.



Fantastic analysis thanks David for all your hard work with this post. So there is a some market of value between AKL and NTL interestingly. Often when people look at a route they only count the average local pax that travel each day and exclude the connection traffic the cream on top. I am sure the likes of SQ when they looked at serving CBR they not just count the daily pax travelling between SIN and CBR alone which would be just as low as AKL to CBR. They would go for the whole picture before deciding to start or not. Now that we are in a bubble and can only rely on local traffic only the odds are it won't work at the moment. But in the future i think they should seriously consider it. Especially it is a safe market to expand to and generate more revenue.
 
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:06 am

LamboAston wrote:
Unclekoru wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

Ah the WR 752, I remember hearing they couldn't fill the 732 so the 752 must have had very good lease rates, ex BI IIRC, it spent a fair bit of the week parked at AKL when it wasn't flying. They shared a 733 with FJ in the 90s with each airlines livery on one side, probably a good arrangement for the time.


Yes, the 737-300 with the split livery was a novel idea and a sensible way of achieving decent utilisation.

It had also been done on the Concorde and multiple 747s if i remember correctly, so not that novel.


For WR I would say it was a novel idea to as Unclekoru said increase utilization, the 732 and 752 spent a fair bit of time on the ground, I think they did an AKL-RAR on the 752 briefly 2 days a week and TBU was no more than 4-5 weekly for a 7hr return trip. Not sure how long the agreement with FJ lasted and why it stopped, maybe FJ needed the capacity or the 733 lease ended? I remember it around 1997/98 or so, not sure how long it lasted.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:23 am

Air Chatham's is now carrying sheep on their Convair aircraft from Chatham's to Napier. As long as you get bums on seats as they say it gets money coming in. I wonder if they offered their special passengers a bit of grass during the flight over.
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ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:14 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
LamboAston wrote:
Unclekoru wrote:

Yes, the 737-300 with the split livery was a novel idea and a sensible way of achieving decent utilisation.

It had also been done on the Concorde and multiple 747s if i remember correctly, so not that novel.


For WR I would say it was a novel idea to as Unclekoru said increase utilization, the 732 and 752 spent a fair bit of time on the ground, I think they did an AKL-RAR on the 752 briefly 2 days a week and TBU was no more than 4-5 weekly for a 7hr return trip. Not sure how long the agreement with FJ lasted and why it stopped, maybe FJ needed the capacity or the 733 lease ended? I remember it around 1997/98 or so, not sure how long it lasted.



It looks like from what I can find the WR/FJ 733 operation began in January 1995, not sure when it ended exactly. It was around at least 2-3 years maybe a little more.

Later I believe WR with the 732 ex NZ operated the weekly IUE flight ex AKL continuing to TBU, pretty sure only 1 carrier was allowed on the route, NZ got it when WR folded. How about WR and PH with some sort of arrangement? PH at one point had 2 738s which at times could both be seen at AKL at the same time 5W-SAM and 5W-SAO, PH operated AKL-PPT 2 weekly and through to SYD taking over from QF in 2000, TN also started with a weekly service with their sole A342 they also had APW-WLG-MEL although that one may have ended when they ended 733 services around 1999/00?
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:37 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
LamboAston wrote:
It had also been done on the Concorde and multiple 747s if i remember correctly, so not that novel.


For WR I would say it was a novel idea to as Unclekoru said increase utilization, the 732 and 752 spent a fair bit of time on the ground, I think they did an AKL-RAR on the 752 briefly 2 days a week and TBU was no more than 4-5 weekly for a 7hr return trip. Not sure how long the agreement with FJ lasted and why it stopped, maybe FJ needed the capacity or the 733 lease ended? I remember it around 1997/98 or so, not sure how long it lasted.



It looks like from what I can find the WR/FJ 733 operation began in January 1995, not sure when it ended exactly. It was around at least 2-3 years maybe a little more.

Later I believe WR with the 732 ex NZ operated the weekly IUE flight ex AKL continuing to TBU, pretty sure only 1 carrier was allowed on the route, NZ got it when WR folded. How about WR and PH with some sort of arrangement? PH at one point had 2 738s which at times could both be seen at AKL at the same time 5W-SAM and 5W-SAO, PH operated AKL-PPT 2 weekly and through to SYD taking over from QF in 2000, TN also started with a weekly service with their sole A342 they also had APW-WLG-MEL although that one may have ended when they ended 733 services around 1999/00?


I maybe be wrong but didn’t PH run an AKL-IUE-APW service at one point? Then it stopped with the DJ deal, and NZ started AKL-APW weekly with an 733.

Pretty sure in the 2000s NZ still had an weekly 733 service that flew something like AKL-NAN-RAR-PPT and back.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:51 am

zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

For WR I would say it was a novel idea to as Unclekoru said increase utilization, the 732 and 752 spent a fair bit of time on the ground, I think they did an AKL-RAR on the 752 briefly 2 days a week and TBU was no more than 4-5 weekly for a 7hr return trip. Not sure how long the agreement with FJ lasted and why it stopped, maybe FJ needed the capacity or the 733 lease ended? I remember it around 1997/98 or so, not sure how long it lasted.



It looks like from what I can find the WR/FJ 733 operation began in January 1995, not sure when it ended exactly. It was around at least 2-3 years maybe a little more.

Later I believe WR with the 732 ex NZ operated the weekly IUE flight ex AKL continuing to TBU, pretty sure only 1 carrier was allowed on the route, NZ got it when WR folded. How about WR and PH with some sort of arrangement? PH at one point had 2 738s which at times could both be seen at AKL at the same time 5W-SAM and 5W-SAO, PH operated AKL-PPT 2 weekly and through to SYD taking over from QF in 2000, TN also started with a weekly service with their sole A342 they also had APW-WLG-MEL although that one may have ended when they ended 733 services around 1999/00?


I maybe be wrong but didn’t PH run an AKL-IUE-APW service at one point? Then it stopped with the DJ deal, and NZ started AKL-APW weekly with an 733.

Pretty sure in the 2000s NZ still had an weekly 733 service that flew something like AKL-NAN-RAR-PPT and back.


Yes I think you are correct, IIRC WR ran IUE with the 732, then PH with a 738 continuing to APW as you said until they ended Jet services, then NZ got IUE, initially a 733 from memory, then the current A320, it did in good times go 2 weekly, around Christmas holidays IIRC.

Did NZ run the 733 as far as PPT? I certainly remember it as AKL-NAN-RAR, there was a 763 service in the late 90s early 00s that was AKL-NAN-RAR-PPT-LAX.

Interesting PH ran the 738 AKL-PPT, NZ AFAIK won't schedule the A320 on that route due lack of diversion points. Someone correct me if i'm wrong.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:16 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Did NZ run the 733 as far as PPT? I certainly remember it as AKL-NAN-RAR, there was a 763 service in the late 90s early 00s that was AKL-NAN-RAR-PPT-LAX.
Someone correct me if i'm wrong.


Are you sure about the NAN stop on the RAR-PPT-LAX flight? I thought they were two separate flights: AKL-NAN-RAR-PPT & AKL-RAR-PPT-LAX.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:44 am

While looking at the potential for AKL-NTL, I also had a look at AKL-CBR. In this case, there's nothing existing available to show what loads might be carried, but we do have the evidence of SQ's efforts on WLG-CBR.

Assume very conservatively that NZ could get these SAME loads out of Auckland plus a 10% allowance for connection traffic. Daily demand would be 68 ppdew (479 per week) in January, (2.82 A320 loads) and 34 ppdew (238 per week) in winter (1.40 A320 loads)

Given that for most Transtasman destinations, WLG attracts only about 20% of the loads that AKL does, the demand for AKL-CBR could easily be significantly more than 3x weekly in summer, 2x weekly in winter.

Again, lots of assumptions involved, but I think that what this does show is that AKL-CBR should by no means be rejected out of hand as a possible NZ route.
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DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:46 am

eta unknown wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
zkncj wrote:


Are you sure about the NAN stop on the RAR-PPT-LAX flight? I thought they were two separate flights: AKL-NAN-RAR-PPT & AKL-RAR-PPT-LAX.

I remember that for a period one of the RAR flights was routing LAX-RAR-NAN-AKL. There was also a HNL-RAR-AKL flight at one time.
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NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:12 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
In one of my "back-of-the-envelope" moments, and acknowledging that this analysis includes many assumptions, I thought it might be interesting to see exactly what loads were being carried on AKL-NTL by VA in the last two summer seasons served:

Feb 2020 - 1,104 pax, adjusted for season length: 32 ppdew, 221 per week
Jan 2020 - 3,090 pax, or 50 ppdew, 348 per week
Dec 2019 - 2,548 pax, adjusted for season length: 43 ppdew, 303 per week

Feb 2019 - 1,094 pax, adjusted for season length: 26 ppedew, 182 per week
Jan 2019 - 2,853 pax, or 46 ppdew, 322 per week
Dec 2018 - 2,166 pax, or 35 ppdew, 245 per week (appears to have operated the whole month)

Could NZ make a go of this route? It's a highly visible brand in Australia, and is in fact that country's most trusted brand (which surprises me, but it's been so for two years running). VA has no special home advantage in NTL, and no connection possibilities. Let's assume that NZ could do as well as VA on the route. In addition, NZ does have the advantage (in normal times) of an extensive Pacific and North American connection market. We know that NZ "filled the equivalent of a 77W each day with pax connecting at AKL to North America" in the past, which means that about 20% of pax on Tasman flights arriving in that time slot would have been onward bound. Even if this translated to 10% in the case of NTL, it would mean about 20-30 extra passengers per week.

On that basis, in the 2019-2020 summer season, if NZ was the sole operator, got as much traffic as VA, plus 10% for onward connections and used 170-seat A320s, then the number of aircraft that could be filled, and the number of flights that might have been offered (with a minimum 75% LF) would have been:

Dec: 1.96 (serve 2x weekly); Jan: 2.25 (serve 3x weekly); Feb: 1.43 (serve 2x weekly but 71.5% LF)

On the other hand, if 94-seat wet-leased Alliance E190s were used, the numbers would look like this:

Dec: 3.54 (serve 4x weekly); Jan: 4.07 (serve 5x weekly); Feb: 2.59 (serve 3x weekly)

We don't have information on actual loads out of NTL in the winter, but it appears that overall for Tasman routes June loads are about 70% of January loads. Let's assume 60% in the case of NTL to be conservative, and it would appear that 1.35 A320s or 2.43 E190s could be filled in the low season.

My conclusion (subject I know to the myriad "ifs and buts" that others will undoubtedly point out) is that NZ could operate (say) 2x weekly A320s to NTL for most of the year, supplemented by a third service in the peak of peak season - effectively the same level of service as AKL-HBA is getting now

If, however, it had access to a 94-seat aircraft, it might be able to justify 3x weekly E190s throughout the year, with up to 4-5x weekly during the summer peak.

Would this be worthwhile? Well, we don't know the yield that VA got, only the bums-on-seats. But assuming that NZ is still serious about building its connecting network to North America, and is keen to remain top dog on the Tasman, then it's a possibility - but at the lowest end of the possibility spectrum. But this analysis also does show that a smaller aircraft like the E190 (or A220) could open routes that would not otherwise be possible.


I completely get this is "back-of-the-envelope" stuff and just rounded off figures to make many assumptions etc.

My initial thoughts are...forget the E190's. NZ won't do that. They've already go excess fleet at their disposal with little to no P.I and the Tasman not at full capacity. I'd imagine there'll also be 'outrage' of using offshore based Pilots when we've got highly skilled unemployed ones here coupled with government handouts **cough cough** sorry loan.

So if we're back to the A320 we're looking at 2 weekly at 75% at an unknown "yield". That's the kicker of it all. If you could fly once a week if you were making solid double digit yield.

Tasmania is appealing with the retired or near retired cashed up couples looking for a new adventure. The Hunter Valley does this to an extend I admit.

I guess what I'm saying is filling planes is half the equation.. perhaps we could look at VA's seasonal service that didn't grow and or that fact NZ didn't continue it post Freedom nor pick it up again under Fyfe or Luxon who both grew the airline considerably as signs for the second half of that equation.

Please don't think I'm completely disagreeing with you or NTL. Clearly there's something there. It's been done before, twice by two different airlines.
 
NZ6
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:19 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
While looking at the potential for AKL-NTL, I also had a look at AKL-CBR. In this case, there's nothing existing available to show what loads might be carried, but we do have the evidence of SQ's efforts on WLG-CBR.

Assume very conservatively that NZ could get these SAME loads out of Auckland plus a 10% allowance for connection traffic. Daily demand would be 68 ppdew (479 per week) in January, (2.82 A320 loads) and 34 ppdew (238 per week) in winter (1.40 A320 loads)

Given that for most Transtasman destinations, WLG attracts only about 20% of the loads that AKL does, the demand for AKL-CBR could easily be significantly more than 3x weekly in summer, 2x weekly in winter.

Again, lots of assumptions involved, but I think that what this does show is that AKL-CBR should by no means be rejected out of hand as a possible NZ route.


How many people paid positive yield fares WLG-MEL-WLG.

I understood this sector on it's own was wickedly unprofitable which was partially why they switched to MEL eventually although I recall that side of it being kept reasonably quiet.
 
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Kiwings
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:56 pm

And we really don't know how much money the WLG council also paid to subsidise the service plus WLG airport would have also provided significant financial assistance - most likely in advertising and marketing support.
The problem with both CBR and NTL is that they will generally be once only visitors - unlike QNSLND where you know there are constant repeat visitors.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:19 pm

NZ6 wrote:
My initial thoughts are...forget the E190's. NZ won't do that. They've already go excess fleet at their disposal with little to no P.I and the Tasman not at full capacity. I'd imagine there'll also be 'outrage' of using offshore based Pilots when we've got highly skilled unemployed ones here coupled with government handouts **cough cough** sorry loan.

So if we're back to the A320 we're looking at 2 weekly at 75% at an unknown "yield". That's the kicker of it all. If you could fly once a week if you were making solid double digit yield.

I don't disagree with that - in the short term. I doubt very much that NTL or CBR would stand a chance of serious consideration until the Tasman market has fully recovered - and until the North American market is also back to all destinations being served. Bujt in the medium term, I do see an advantage in having a smaller jet for thinner domestic and regional routes, and I think that it could eventually be a workable-sized fleet.

NZ6 wrote:
I guess what I'm saying is filling planes is half the equation.. perhaps we could look at VA's seasonal service that didn't grow and or that fact NZ didn't continue it post Freedom nor pick it up again under Fyfe or Luxon who both grew the airline considerably as signs for the second half of that equation.

Please don't think I'm completely disagreeing with you or NTL. Clearly there's something there. It's been done before, twice by two different airlines.

I also accept that filling planes is only half the issue - and we don't have the info re VA's yield. My conclusion is also pretty much the same as yours: clearly there's something there, and I'd suggest that in the medium term NZ should keep NTL on its radar, and that it shouldn't be rejected out of hand as a possibility.

NZ6 wrote:
How many people paid positive yield fares WLG-MEL-WLG.

I understood this sector on it's own was wickedly unprofitable which was partially why they switched to MEL eventually although I recall that side of it being kept reasonably quiet.

I assume you meant WLG-CBR-WLG? Again, we just don't know. I suspect SQ did have trouble attracting pax at decent yields, even on WLG-MEL, as the last time I went to HBA I took a routing including SQ from AKL-WLG-MEL-HBA, sold by consolidators at the lowest price on the day. But my point here is that if WLG-CBR could support 2-3x A320 equivalents at low yields, then maybe AKL-CBR with the same frequency could work with higher yields and potentially be profitable.

Overall, I'm thinking of the grander strategy for NZ. It's operating in a Single Aviation Market with Australia, but is still very NZ-focused. Efforts at establishing a domestic operation in Australia have been and gone three times - once when the Australian government pulled the plug on an NZ-"own metal" proposal, then with Ansett, and latterly with Virgin. I can't see them trying this again in the near future, especially with the current level of competition there in the domestic market. Serving points to the west beyond Australia is not going to happen unless the current "no more one-stop services" policy is abandoned (though I confess I find the suggestion someone made a while back for a resumption of LHR services via PER to be intriguing, and more plausible than almost any other operation to Europe in my view). So that leaves serving Australian cities via NZ to points eastward - what I call the "Finnair strategy" (which has done remarkably well for that carrier, and has resulted in a plethora of secondary points being served both to the west and east of Helsinki).

Of course NZ's "home" market is only 30 million compared with Finnair's "home" market of several hundred million, so let's not imagine miracles. But a steady growth in destinations served in Australia (to at least 11, including CBR and NTL) and a corresponding growth over time in routes to North America (LAS, DEN and YYZ have been on NZ's radar before) - and possibly even to South America once it recovers from its present covid, economic and political crises (I'm not holding my breath for that) would position NZ's offering very comfortably in a competitive transpacific market where it competes with QF, AA, TN, FJ and DL. This is not a short-term strategy, but medium-term (five to ten years perhaps).

But if not that, what should NZ's strategy be? Conservatively maintain the status quo? I don't see that being a winner in a growing global market where point-to-point travel is becoming increasingly offered over hubbing: the use of AKL for both point-to-point and hubbing is a natural advantage that needs IMO to be grasped.
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NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 4:27 am

Well said David I agree on all your points raised. Certainly gives us food for thought on the matter. Perhaps next year we might see a new route opened up after long haul services are reinstated
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - June 2021

Tue Jun 08, 2021 6:52 pm

Kiwings wrote:
And we really don't know how much money the WLG council also paid to subsidise the service plus WLG airport would have also provided significant financial assistance - most likely in advertising and marketing support.
The problem with both CBR and NTL is that they will generally be once only visitors - unlike QNSLND where you know there are constant repeat visitors.


The CBR and NTL markets will be not just for Tourists. There will be a significant amount of VFR segment, sport teams plus business and Government traffic especially to CBR.
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