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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:51 pm

Jetport wrote:
Naincompetent wrote:
Also, about all those who believe that Boeing will cancel the program, one has to understand that most of the cost is behind them.
That means that as long as the future revenue is enough to offset the ongoing development costs, it is worth continuing the development.
Money which went out of the pocket last year is already a sunken cost and totally irrelevant for present decisions.


You are absolutely correct. It is amazing how many folks out there just can't seem to grasp the sunk development cost concept. All the 777X needs is a reasonable prospect of profitability from today forward, all of the past development money is gone and now irrelevant, you can't go back in time. The future freighter version is just one more reason that there is no doubt that the 777X program will continue forward.

Sunk development cost is why the A380 and 747-8 went on for years on life support, the cost of keeping the lines running was relatively low and worth the risk of getting future orders. The A330NEO is now in a similar situation, which barring a huge upturn in widebody demand in the near future will likely end like the A380 and 747-8 did.

Excellent point! The sunk costs must be ignored. But now that a frame has little cost to enter service, what can be done to make a profit off future spending (ignoring everything spent before, because that is a sunk cost).

More to others:
I believe just a freighter alone will make a profit ion *future* 777x spending. As a bonus, it improves the economy of scale of the 777x and gives a chance that the passenger plane will find a market.

Unfortunately, in my opinion, I think long haul demand, in particular the front cabin will be reduced. Partially as front cabin passengers will want to minimize exposure and are likely to fly private. Partially as business flying will be reduced. This hurts all widebodies, in particular larger widebodies (the market really needs a MoM, IMHO).

Airbus needs a freighter too. More than the A330P2F which is for mid-package missions, IMHO. Long haul (TPAC or Pacific to EU) justifies new builds due to mission length.

QR is seizing a negotiating opportunity. I'm not sure if there will only be one large long haul freighter, so there is the risk. Boeing and Airbus had better sharpen the pencils as this shall be the most brutal negotiation.

It doesn't matter what we think of QR. This is a kingmaker sized order for the next large widebody freighter. AAB knows this.

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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:09 pm

Jetport wrote:
Naincompetent wrote:
Also, about all those who believe that Boeing will cancel the program, one has to understand that most of the cost is behind them.
That means that as long as the future revenue is enough to offset the ongoing development costs, it is worth continuing the development.
Money which went out of the pocket last year is already a sunken cost and totally irrelevant for present decisions.


You are absolutely correct. It is amazing how many folks out there just can't seem to grasp the sunk development cost concept. All the 777X needs is a reasonable prospect of profitability from today forward, all of the past development money is gone and now irrelevant, you can't go back in time. The future freighter version is just one more reason that there is no doubt that the 777X program will continue forward.

Sunk development cost is why the A380 and 747-8 went on for years on life support, the cost of keeping the lines running was relatively low and worth the risk of getting future orders. The A330NEO is now in a similar situation, which barring a huge upturn in widebody demand in the near future will likely end like the A380 and 747-8 did.


The concept that needs to be grasped is that if someone doesn’t want something the price is immaterial.

Geoff
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:53 pm

Geoff1947 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
Naincompetent wrote:
Also, about all those who believe that Boeing will cancel the program, one has to understand that most of the cost is behind them.
That means that as long as the future revenue is enough to offset the ongoing development costs, it is worth continuing the development.
Money which went out of the pocket last year is already a sunken cost and totally irrelevant for present decisions.


You are absolutely correct. It is amazing how many folks out there just can't seem to grasp the sunk development cost concept. All the 777X needs is a reasonable prospect of profitability from today forward, all of the past development money is gone and now irrelevant, you can't go back in time. The future freighter version is just one more reason that there is no doubt that the 777X program will continue forward.

Sunk development cost is why the A380 and 747-8 went on for years on life support, the cost of keeping the lines running was relatively low and worth the risk of getting future orders. The A330NEO is now in a similar situation, which barring a huge upturn in widebody demand in the near future will likely end like the A380 and 747-8 did.


The concept that needs to be grasped is that if someone doesn’t want something the price is immaterial.

Geoff

We can agree that there must be some demand. Eventually, long haul demand will exceed 2019s. If Boeing can sell 777xFs to QR, then eventually, they will be able to deliver 779s.

If you were talking A330NEO, it like the 788 is in a tough nich that the A321xLR will enter partially. But that goes off topic.

This is 777xF vs. A350F. Whomever wins QR is certain to win other orders and have a nice economy of scale boost for selling future passenger models.

The market needs a new large freighter. We will debate whose. :box:

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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:04 pm

I once wrote an evaluation on my blog and according to the estimate, the targeted max revenue payload is around 110 tonnes, tare already taken into account.

With that payload, the 777-8F should be able to fly over 4,500 nm - 5,000 NM.

Obviously it was a very rough estimate because there's no indication what it is or isn't.

How much freight do you think the A350F could carry and for how far?
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:40 am

lightsaber wrote:
Geoff1947 wrote:
Jetport wrote:

You are absolutely correct. It is amazing how many folks out there just can't seem to grasp the sunk development cost concept. All the 777X needs is a reasonable prospect of profitability from today forward, all of the past development money is gone and now irrelevant, you can't go back in time. The future freighter version is just one more reason that there is no doubt that the 777X program will continue forward.

Sunk development cost is why the A380 and 747-8 went on for years on life support, the cost of keeping the lines running was relatively low and worth the risk of getting future orders. The A330NEO is now in a similar situation, which barring a huge upturn in widebody demand in the near future will likely end like the A380 and 747-8 did.


The concept that needs to be grasped is that if someone doesn’t want something the price is immaterial.

Geoff

We can agree that there must be some demand. Eventually, long haul demand will exceed 2019s. If Boeing can sell 777xFs to QR, then eventually, they will be able to deliver 779s.

If you were talking A330NEO, it like the 788 is in a tough nich that the A321xLR will enter partially. But that goes off topic.

This is 777xF vs. A350F. Whomever wins QR is certain to win other orders and have a nice economy of scale boost for selling future passenger models.

The market needs a new large freighter. We will debate whose. :box:

Lightsaber

Doesn’t the A350 already have quite an big economy scale for an widebody?
I think if the A350F gets this order it will prevent the 777x ever reaching the economy of scale and as such insure pent up demand for the A350-1000 as 777 replacement. Both A and B have a lot to win/lose with this order. It seems AAB will determine the future of this market…
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:05 pm

Wouldn’t FedEx be an obvious candidate for the 777XF Or is it too big for its hubs?
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sat Jun 05, 2021 4:13 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This is 777xF vs. A350F. Whomever wins QR is certain to win other orders and have a nice economy of scale boost for selling future passenger models.

The market needs a new large freighter. We will debate whose. :box:

Our most recent A350F thread ( viewtopic.php?t=1458691 ) has Reuters estimates that Airbus would need 50 orders to launch an A350-950F with a budget of 2-3B USD ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN2B41NA ).

Personally I think an order for 30 from a blue chip carrier such as QR would do the job, with Airbus willing to shoulder the risk that other customers would be found.

Same would be true of Boeing, 30 frames would be enough to launch 777-XF, with the company accepting the risk that more customers could be found.

The real risk is that 77W freighter conversions will undermine the market as a whole, but I think A and B can convince themselves there is room for one factory built freighter, theirs of course! Presumably they both realize two products in this space probably is one too many.

So, like it or not, AAB indeed is a king maker. His decision will have a huge say on what happens next in the wide body factory built freighter market. It looks likely that his order could provide the seed money for a factory built freighter, one that will be at the right place at the right time as early 777Fs age out and as 748F ceases production.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
Personally I think an order for 30 from a blue chip carrier such as QR would do the job, with Airbus willing to shoulder the risk that other customers would be found.

Same would be true of Boeing, 30 frames would be enough to launch 777-XF, with the company accepting the risk that more customers could be found.

The real risk is that 77W freighter conversions will undermine the market as a whole, but I think A and B can convince themselves there is room for one factory built freighter, theirs of course! Presumably they both realize two products in this space probably is one too many.

So, like it or not, AAB indeed is a king maker. His decision will have a huge say on what happens next in the wide body factory built freighter market. It looks likely that his order could provide the seed money for a factory built freighter, one that will be at the right place at the right time as early 777Fs age out and as 748F ceases production.

Perhaps Airbus is in serious discussions with prospective US customers keen to ensure they don't end up with yet another ME3 centric design (which they already consider the X to be), and in not so serious discussions with QR.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:20 pm

smartplane wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Personally I think an order for 30 from a blue chip carrier such as QR would do the job, with Airbus willing to shoulder the risk that other customers would be found.

Same would be true of Boeing, 30 frames would be enough to launch 777-XF, with the company accepting the risk that more customers could be found.

The real risk is that 77W freighter conversions will undermine the market as a whole, but I think A and B can convince themselves there is room for one factory built freighter, theirs of course! Presumably they both realize two products in this space probably is one too many.

So, like it or not, AAB indeed is a king maker. His decision will have a huge say on what happens next in the wide body factory built freighter market. It looks likely that his order could provide the seed money for a factory built freighter, one that will be at the right place at the right time as early 777Fs age out and as 748F ceases production.

Perhaps Airbus is in serious discussions with prospective US customers keen to ensure they don't end up with yet another ME3 centric design (which they already consider the X to be), and in not so serious discussions with QR.

The 779 has been bought by others than the ME3. The issue is few airlines are that concerned with that large of gauge anymore.

QR has the largest potential order out there. The only optimization is length. More length is more volume, but the weight reduces range. As the 779 is too long, QR might demand a longer frame than optimal for TPAC or EU to coastal China, that is all that can go wrong.

The 779 will receive PiPs which will increase range making it less ME3 optimized. The engines are already done. The 777x engines were optimized a bit for hot/high per ME3 demans. Okay, that increases fuel burn a tiny amount and wouldn't sell to the EU3 (in general, they do not need hot/high). But a tiny optimization.

Since we are talking adapted existing aircraft, there is only one parameter to optimize: length (volume) at the trade of payload at range.

As the largest freighter order I know of, this order is the kingmaker. QR will drag out negotiations to squeeze out terms from both A and B.

If Boeing wins, the 777x survives until a passenger recovery and future sales.

If Airbus wins, this helps the A350, in particular the A350-1000, which the freighter must be based upon as the A359 doesn't have the structure nor engines for QR's missions, in my opinion.

CX, EK, ANA, and LH will be looking at this order intensely. As 777x customers with freight, this could influence them.

The same could be said about the A350F. The reality is, the first to 50 orders has a huge sales advantage. With QR buying 30... They really decide the winner.

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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sun Jun 06, 2021 12:35 pm

We have heard some time ago that Airbus was looking for their first 50 A350F orders in order to launch this program. Now QR appears to be the king maker for the next large freighter aircraft. This is maybe the situation Airbus was trying to avoid ending up with. Until further notice, it also shows that the other airlines are happy with QR being the king maker. Or they would be equally happy in operating either the A350F or the 777XF? Or it shows that they don't have the finances to make any commitment right now and have no choice but to let QR be the king maker.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:14 pm

tomcat wrote:
We have heard some time ago that Airbus was looking for their first 50 A350F orders in order to launch this program. Now QR appears to be the king maker for the next large freighter aircraft. This is maybe the situation Airbus was trying to avoid ending up with. Until further notice, it also shows that the other airlines are happy with QR being the king maker. Or they would be equally happy in operating either the A350F or the 777XF? Or it shows that they don't have the finances to make any commitment right now and have no choice but to let QR be the king maker.

I think it is mostly the later. I think most customers in this market space have young 777F or 748F. QR has the money and the desire to spend it on new freighters. That makes them unique in the industry. Yet by the time the new machine gets designed, built and tested more of the companies who have high utilization may be interested so the timing may work out pretty good.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:49 pm

The 30 requirement stated is a long term thing. They currently operate 26 B777Fs, the majority of which are less than 6 years old.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:03 pm

fcogafa wrote:
The 30 requirement stated is a long term thing. They currently operate 26 B777Fs, the majority of which are less than 6 years old.


With the time needed to launch the aircraft, develop it and then certify, those aircraft would be a little bit older.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:29 pm

If B (or A) need an order of this size to proceed with a new freighter. Other carriers can order significant numbers too. CI has 18 744Fs to be replaced, oldest are 21 years old. Youngest 14. Recent ROC CAA rules preclude any aircraft older than 26 years on the Taiwan civil registry. When they ordered 6 777Fs they seemed to indicate these were replacements for the 747. Recent interviews with the CEO suggest they will be running 24 freighters after delivery of the remaining 77Fs and at least this tranche of 77Fs are not replacing anything anytime soon. If a 777-8F or A350-950/1000/900F becomes available in the 2nd half of this decade, one could see an order for at least 24 from CI not including any additions to the fleet expected over the next decade as they replace the old 747s and then potentially the 777Fs starting in the beginning of the next decade.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sun Jun 06, 2021 7:49 pm

There are a number of 777F operators with aircraft in their fleets over 10 years old already (not that this is an age which means a freighter needs to be ordered to replace it). The QR order would be great to launch the program but I think FedEx/LH etc. all know a freighter will be offered and are likely to get some. EK as well I am sure is interested and has some relatively (for them) elderly 77F’s in use today. Turkish also. None of these airlines have ever operated a RR powered freighter, to my knowledge.

https://www.planespotters.net/operators ... ?sort=type
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:35 pm

Not many years ago freighter supply exceeded demand, shifting hard with Covid. Most of the bigger freight airlines are probably on the sidelines as to the uncertainty of freight demand 2+ years out. Look how hard it was to place the last 4 748F's were, this makes this QR possible order just 'huge'.

Personally, I see there will be big demand for the 77W P2F's, they have a nice position in the Volume / Weight capabilities currently underserved. The heavier freight will go to the existing fleet, e commerce into these new P2F's
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:07 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Not many years ago freighter supply exceeded demand, shifting hard with Covid. Most of the bigger freight airlines are probably on the sidelines as to the uncertainty of freight demand 2+ years out. Look how hard it was to place the last 4 748F's were, this makes this QR possible order just 'huge'.

Personally, I see there will be big demand for the 77W P2F's, they have a nice position in the Volume / Weight capabilities currently underserved. The heavier freight will go to the existing fleet, e commerce into these new P2F's


There is a myth about those last 7478F’s. They weren’t that hard for Boeing to sell at all, the issue was the Russians canceled the buy, then wanted them but Boeing had already placed them. The last pax white tails were tough (including the LH one) but not really the freighters. It remains to be seen how well the market will take the GE-IAI 777P2F aircraft, also. Regardless, with the A330 basically not getting thru in the cargo market at all, and the 767 no longer able to be sold in Europe/various parts of the world in a few years, it’s real hard to see how the freighter market will be in an over-supply position.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:24 am

texl1649 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Not many years ago freighter supply exceeded demand, shifting hard with Covid. Most of the bigger freight airlines are probably on the sidelines as to the uncertainty of freight demand 2+ years out. Look how hard it was to place the last 4 748F's were, this makes this QR possible order just 'huge'.

Personally, I see there will be big demand for the 77W P2F's, they have a nice position in the Volume / Weight capabilities currently underserved. The heavier freight will go to the existing fleet, e commerce into these new P2F's


There is a myth about those last 7478F’s. They weren’t that hard for Boeing to sell at all, the issue was the Russians canceled the buy, then wanted them but Boeing had already placed them. The last pax white tails were tough (including the LH one) but not really the freighters. It remains to be seen how well the market will take the GE-IAI 777P2F aircraft, also. Regardless, with the A330 basically not getting thru in the cargo market at all, and the 767 no longer able to be sold in Europe/various parts of the world in a few years, it’s real hard to see how the freighter market will be in an over-supply position.


I’m not sure it’s accurate the A330 is not getting through - we’ve seen a number of recent announcements for P2Fs. Certainly it doesn’t have the demand of the 767, but it is picking up. Cheap feedstock is going to help.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:29 am

If the 767-300F gets 30 years of deliveries from 1995 to 2025, isn't there a chance that the FBW 777F could be relevant from 2009 until 2039? What's the competitiveness of the current 777F for the next 18 years?
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:31 am

jbs2886 wrote:
texl1649 wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
Not many years ago freighter supply exceeded demand, shifting hard with Covid. Most of the bigger freight airlines are probably on the sidelines as to the uncertainty of freight demand 2+ years out. Look how hard it was to place the last 4 748F's were, this makes this QR possible order just 'huge'.

Personally, I see there will be big demand for the 77W P2F's, they have a nice position in the Volume / Weight capabilities currently underserved. The heavier freight will go to the existing fleet, e commerce into these new P2F's


There is a myth about those last 7478F’s. They weren’t that hard for Boeing to sell at all, the issue was the Russians canceled the buy, then wanted them but Boeing had already placed them. The last pax white tails were tough (including the LH one) but not really the freighters. It remains to be seen how well the market will take the GE-IAI 777P2F aircraft, also. Regardless, with the A330 basically not getting thru in the cargo market at all, and the 767 no longer able to be sold in Europe/various parts of the world in a few years, it’s real hard to see how the freighter market will be in an over-supply position.


I’m not sure it’s accurate the A330 is not getting through - we’ve seen a number of recent announcements for P2Fs. Certainly it doesn’t have the demand of the 767, but it is picking up. Cheap feedstock is going to help.


New build A330 is completely dead in the water though, which is a bit different than the 767. They are similar as there is a good conversion market, though the conversion rate for the 330 is painfully slow.

In the meantime Bedek has doubled its 777 p2f conversion capacity by adding the 2 lines in Seoul. With rumors of adding an Ethiopian line too, they seem pretty confident in that product.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:53 am

DenverTed wrote:
If the 767-300F gets 30 years of deliveries from 1995 to 2025, isn't there a chance that the FBW 777F could be relevant from 2009 until 2039? What's the competitiveness of the current 777F for the next 18 years?

Kind of depends of if the USAF is willing to keep the line open, I suppose.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 6:46 am

Spacepope wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
texl1649 wrote:

There is a myth about those last 7478F’s. They weren’t that hard for Boeing to sell at all, the issue was the Russians canceled the buy, then wanted them but Boeing had already placed them. The last pax white tails were tough (including the LH one) but not really the freighters. It remains to be seen how well the market will take the GE-IAI 777P2F aircraft, also. Regardless, with the A330 basically not getting thru in the cargo market at all, and the 767 no longer able to be sold in Europe/various parts of the world in a few years, it’s real hard to see how the freighter market will be in an over-supply position.


I’m not sure it’s accurate the A330 is not getting through - we’ve seen a number of recent announcements for P2Fs. Certainly it doesn’t have the demand of the 767, but it is picking up. Cheap feedstock is going to help.


New build A330 is completely dead in the water though, which is a bit different than the 767. They are similar as there is a good conversion market, though the conversion rate for the 330 is painfully slow.

In the meantime Bedek has doubled its 777 p2f conversion capacity by adding the 2 lines in Seoul. With rumors of adding an Ethiopian line too, they seem pretty confident in that product.


The 777P2F is not yet certified, so I think it is hardly possible to talk about the conversion rate there.

In regards to the A330P2F, What do you call painfully slow? Both A330-200 as well as A330-300 are certified for P2F and 3 -200 and 7 -300 are in use. 4 frames can be in the conversion process in parallel, giving 10 to 12 conversions a year. 2022 slots are sold.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:00 am

Boeing seems to currently implement major changes in the 777X, depending on what the FAA and others require. At least whatever they do takes quite a bit of time.
Would exactly now be a wise moment to get the same engineering team to do the freighter version in parallel? From my point of view first the 777-9 needs to be ironed out and certified and then they can maybe bring in the freighter before the "-8" if that one is ever happening. So why offer the 777X"F" now? When would and could it be available?

From a production standpoint it might be different. Freighters would be perfect to feed the line but 777-200LR based legacy freighters would be enough to keep the line busy.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:16 am

Some Interesting comments from Calhoun on the 777X Freighter:

Now, what do I think about the airplane? This airplane is going to have, in its category, an enormous cost advantage per seat, per volumetric numbers for freight. And there will always be routes that want an airplane of this size and scale. The difference with this one relative to the historic competition is that it sits by itself. It sits by itself. We don’t have a 47 competing with it in our own backyard, and we don’t have an A380 competing with it. It is -- it’s on its own. So, we keep refining it. We keep pushing it. We bring it to the freight market, all of which I’m confident we will do -- it will have a 40 or 50-year run, and I think it will be one of the great runs of all time.

So I just -- I have lots of confidence in it. It’s often forgotten. Oh, it got delayed. Do they really want to do it? It’s quite the opposite. We love it. We want to do it. We think it fills an important part of the marketplace. It’s an incredibly efficient airplane. And, we think it flies on its own.

Doug Harned

Well, it’s -- you mentioned the freight market. So, I take it from that that you’re very confident this will have a freighter version. And I ask in part because I think there will be challenges from a carbon standpoint for freighters -- existing freighters around in 2028. And so -- but you’re pretty committed. It sounds like that this will be a freighter as well.

Dave Calhoun

Well, I’d say, it’s another reason why when you’ve led as much -- as long as we’ve led in the freight market with our portfolio of airplanes, it’s another very important reason to do it, because it will meet the standards. And so, that’s just another arrow in the quiver of wanting to do it. So, it hadn’t been announced, hasn’t been approved by our Board. But, I am confident that this one will move down that path.

Doug Harned

Yes, I know. I mean, Boeing has really just dominated the freight market. On the last Airbus earnings call, I asked Guillaume Faury about that question. He said that they’re not well positioned there, but it’s important for them to get there. My understanding is they’re looking at a potential A350 freighter. I mean, how do you see Airbus right now as a competitor in that market, in the field?

Dave Calhoun

I see them as a direct competitor, right? They are going to go after the market. I have no worries about that. And they’re going to work with the airplane they know. And so -- and then we have to compete against that. And we like our chances. We really do. And it’s not just based on the knowledge and history and all the things that we’ve learned in our -- with our experiences in the freight world. It’s just the raw performance of the airplane at that size and scale. It’s an incredibly efficient, smart choice for the really great operators out there. So, will we win them all? No. Will we win a lot of them? Yes, and we’re confident in that. So -- and I have no doubt that our competitor will want that market and will come after it.

Link to the full interview transcript there:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/443299 ... conference
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:20 am

One more interesting thing to add. Which I did not know.

But apparently the 8F actually sits in size between the -8 and in the -9.

"The 777 Classic line is sustained by the 777-200LRF. The 777-8F concept is a couple of frames longer than the -8P but shorter than the 777-9."

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/04/hotr- ... he-777-8f/
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:33 am

Noshow wrote:
Boeing seems to currently implement major changes in the 777X, depending on what the FAA and others require. At least whatever they do takes quite a bit of time.
Would exactly now be a wise moment to get the same engineering team to do the freighter version in parallel? From my point of view first the 777-9 needs to be ironed out and certified and then they can maybe bring in the freighter before the "-8" if that one is ever happening. So why offer the 777X"F" now? When would and could it be available?

From a production standpoint it might be different. Freighters would be perfect to feed the line but 777-200LR based legacy freighters would be enough to keep the line busy.

To be fair in doing work for the 777-9 you’re doing work for the 8F. Also they can do both at the same time as one is basically just a different fuselage than the other. If they launch let’s say Dubai airshow. It will take another year to freeze the design, by that time you’re look at 2023 when the 777-9 should now be blasting through certification testing etc. So designers can focus on the -8. Around this time they’ll obviously be on the -9 but that doesn’t mean the -8 can’t be offered. And maybe get a -8 into service in 2025/26? Most of the certification will be done on the -9 anyway
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:42 am

Both OEMs run the risk of putting a product into market which can go from boom to bust on quite short notice. Only COVID-19 and its effects pushed air freight volumes to where they are today => flying test kits, vaccinations etc. around the World. I´ve a hard time to believe that this boom cycle is here to last on the level it is today. Eventually it will drop down again, and pure freighters will feel two effects. Both a drop of volume on medical products, as well as a re-start of global wide body connections, bringing back freight demand where it had shifted to longer-term already.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:40 am

Flying-Tiger wrote:
Both OEMs run the risk of putting a product into market which can go from boom to bust on quite short notice. Only COVID-19 and its effects pushed air freight volumes to where they are today => flying test kits, vaccinations etc. around the World. I´ve a hard time to believe that this boom cycle is here to last on the level it is today. Eventually it will drop down again, and pure freighters will feel two effects. Both a drop of volume on medical products, as well as a re-start of global wide body connections, bringing back freight demand where it had shifted to longer-term already.

I respectfully disagree. Long haul freight needs a more fuel efficient freighter to replace old 742s, MD-11s, and even some 744s. With the expansion of online shopping, I see air freight growing.

There will be a shift back to belly freight, that we can agree upon. But I imagine QR is looking to build up an operation superior to EK's for freight. There will remain a huge amount of freight from Asia to Europe and by having a more efficient fleet, QR will be able to grab market share. Long term the large freighters will do well TPAC and Asia to Europe. This is also an excellent stop gap to keep the lines up at good economics of scale.

Whomever wins the QR order will be at a significant advantage with widebodies.

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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:42 am

Opus99 wrote:
One more interesting thing to add. Which I did not know.

But apparently the 8F actually sits in size between the -8 and in the -9.

"The 777 Classic line is sustained by the 777-200LRF. The 777-8F concept is a couple of frames longer than the -8P but shorter than the 777-9."

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/04/hotr- ... he-777-8f/


We all know that the 777-8F is a certainty since years.We also know the 777-8F has not been formally launched as yet.

I am still quite intrigued by the fact Boeing has not reached the firm configuration of the 777-8. This version is already commercially launched along with the 777-9.

Are they waiting to get more hard data from the 777-9 flight tests before firming the 777-8 (pax) configuration?
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:46 am

Why did QR sell off their A330Fs but retain a substantial fleet of 777Fs? The fact that they did that, along with AABs comments about Airbus, regardless of what they were based on, seems to give a substantial edge to Boeing for this deal.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 10:36 am

lightsaber wrote:
But I imagine QR is looking to build up an operation superior to EK's for freight.


QR overtook EK in scheduled FTK in 2019 according to the IATA WATS.

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/t ... ar-climbs/


SEPilot wrote:
Why did QR sell off their A330Fs but retain a substantial fleet of 777Fs?


This article from Airways Mag has good answers, with two quotes below. https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/qatar-r ... 30f-fleet/

"We made no secret from the beginning that the order of five B777 freighters placed at the Paris Airshow in 2019 was to replace and phase out A330 freighters. This is part of streamlining our freighter fleet and going in for a homogenous fleet for very obvious reasons of optimisation and synergy.”
Guillaume Halleux, Chief Officer Cargo, Qatar Airways

"The Airbus A330 freighter is a great aircraft that served Qatar Airways Cargo’s growth for years. It had always been our intention to replace our A330 freighters with B777F and the original plan was to do this in phases during 2020, however, we retained the A330 freighters to support the demand for essential aid, PPE and other cargo during the pandemic. The four A330 freighters exited our fleet on 31 January 2021. Their exit has always been part of our plan for rationalization and optimization of the Qatar Airways Cargo fleet, that now consists of two Boeing 747-8 freighters and 24 Boeing 777 freighters.” QR spokesperson quoted in the linked article.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:09 am

VV wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
One more interesting thing to add. Which I did not know.

But apparently the 8F actually sits in size between the -8 and in the -9.

"The 777 Classic line is sustained by the 777-200LRF. The 777-8F concept is a couple of frames longer than the -8P but shorter than the 777-9."

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/04/hotr- ... he-777-8f/


We all know that the 777-8F is a certainty since years.We also know the 777-8F has not been formally launched as yet.

I am still quite intrigued by the fact Boeing has not reached the firm configuration of the 777-8. This version is already commercially launched along with the 777-9.

Are they waiting to get more hard data from the 777-9 flight tests before firming the 777-8 (pax) configuration?

I think they have. But they put it on ice to focus on max and then Covid hit. Now max is back up doing its thing, Covid is releasing a bit, Akbar looking for 30 brand new freighters. Time to bring it out of the freezer. Apparently they’ve also spoken to fedex about the -8 before according to Leeham
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:11 am

SEPilot wrote:
Why did QR sell off their A330Fs but retain a substantial fleet of 777Fs? The fact that they did that, along with AABs comments about Airbus, regardless of what they were based on, seems to give a substantial edge to Boeing for this deal.

Let’s not forget the heap of credits QR will have with Boeing from 777X delays and 737 MAX delays. Akbar says they’ve cancelled the MAX order and will replace it with something else
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:22 am

Interesting that both Boeing and Airbus seem to be going for a custom length for their widebody freight offerings, intermediate between the pax lengths offered in the same families.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:11 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
Interesting that both Boeing and Airbus seem to be going for a custom length for their widebody freight offerings, intermediate between the pax lengths offered in the same families.

Why not? Changing length is easy, and it has to go through certification anyway, so making it the same length saves little or nothing. Why not optimize it for its mission?
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:20 pm

SEPilot wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
Interesting that both Boeing and Airbus seem to be going for a custom length for their widebody freight offerings, intermediate between the pax lengths offered in the same families.

Why not? Changing length is easy, and it has to go through certification anyway, so making it the same length saves little or nothing. Why not optimize it for its mission?


It had to happen because the 350-900 and -1000 are very different (wing/gear). To allow a lot of lift the base could only be the -1000 that aircraft is too long to give a good payload vs volume, so a shrunk -1000 is the only competitive version for a 350F.

For Boeing, if they want to keep the -8 in any way or form competitive as a passenger aircraft it has to be different from the F version otherwise one of the two is not competitive, because a payload optimised -8F leaves the -8 pax version less competitive than the A350 on any mission and would not sell one piece. The other way around if the F is based on the -8 that is optimised for range, it will lack the payload/volume to be competitive.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 12:24 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Why did QR sell off their A330Fs but retain a substantial fleet of 777Fs? The fact that they did that, along with AABs comments about Airbus, regardless of what they were based on, seems to give a substantial edge to Boeing for this deal.


Don't forget the boycott of Qatar by neighboring countries in 2017. A lot of those 77F are delivered in the last few years.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:26 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Spacepope wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

I’m not sure it’s accurate the A330 is not getting through - we’ve seen a number of recent announcements for P2Fs. Certainly it doesn’t have the demand of the 767, but it is picking up. Cheap feedstock is going to help.


New build A330 is completely dead in the water though, which is a bit different than the 767. They are similar as there is a good conversion market, though the conversion rate for the 330 is painfully slow.

In the meantime Bedek has doubled its 777 p2f conversion capacity by adding the 2 lines in Seoul. With rumors of adding an Ethiopian line too, they seem pretty confident in that product.


The 777P2F is not yet certified, so I think it is hardly possible to talk about the conversion rate there.

In regards to the A330P2F, What do you call painfully slow? Both A330-200 as well as A330-300 are certified for P2F and 3 -200 and 7 -300 are in use. 4 frames can be in the conversion process in parallel, giving 10 to 12 conversions a year. 2022 slots are sold.
EFW converted in the past more than 200 A300/310 to freighters.


I mean painfully slow. 10 conversions so far out of a program launched in 2012, with first delivery in august 2018. That puts them at pumping out at about 20% capacity so far.

Bedek on the other hand has been adding conversion lines in MEX as well as Korea. They have converted a comparatively massive number of 767s to freighter during the same window the 10 A330s rolled out, and they are preparing for high demand for the 77W conversion.

Even with both of these programs in place I anticipate the demand for the 778f will be consistent. This pandemic surge has seen a massive resurrection of 744 and even some 742 freighters from the boneyard. Engines are going to be the limiting factor and the 747 fleets are feeling a squeeze from the 767 freighter fleet as well since they use the same motors. We will ride this current wave through the end of the coming peak, afterwards what shakes out will be interesting.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:44 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I respectfully disagree. Long haul freight needs a more fuel efficient freighter to replace old 742s, MD-11s, and even some 744s. With the expansion of online shopping, I see air freight growing.

There will be a shift back to belly freight, that we can agree upon. But I imagine QR is looking to build up an operation superior to EK's for freight. There will remain a huge amount of freight from Asia to Europe and by having a more efficient fleet, QR will be able to grab market share. Long term the large freighters will do well TPAC and Asia to Europe. This is also an excellent stop gap to keep the lines up at good economics of scale.

Whomever wins the QR order will be at a significant advantage with widebodies.

I agree, there are a few carriers that buy the latest and greatest since their business model can support it, and QR is one of them.

The COVID era did create a great market for freighters with lots of PPE shipments and little belly freight capacity, but a lot of that was met by bringing 742, MD11, 744 and even DC8 out of the desert. A lot of that will eventually go right back to the desert but the crisis is dragging on month after month. One thing that will stay is people have figured out e-commerce to a degree that will help sustain air cargo going forward.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 3:04 pm

With the A321xlr and a possible Boeing mid-range aircraft with less belly freight, there should be more of a future market for dedicated freighters on those routes.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 3:56 pm

Spacepope wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
Spacepope wrote:

New build A330 is completely dead in the water though, which is a bit different than the 767. They are similar as there is a good conversion market, though the conversion rate for the 330 is painfully slow.

In the meantime Bedek has doubled its 777 p2f conversion capacity by adding the 2 lines in Seoul. With rumors of adding an Ethiopian line too, they seem pretty confident in that product.


The 777P2F is not yet certified, so I think it is hardly possible to talk about the conversion rate there.

In regards to the A330P2F, What do you call painfully slow? Both A330-200 as well as A330-300 are certified for P2F and 3 -200 and 7 -300 are in use. 4 frames can be in the conversion process in parallel, giving 10 to 12 conversions a year. 2022 slots are sold.
EFW converted in the past more than 200 A300/310 to freighters.


I mean painfully slow. 10 conversions so far out of a program launched in 2012, with first delivery in august 2018. That puts them at pumping out at about 20% capacity so far.

Bedek on the other hand has been adding conversion lines in MEX as well as Korea. They have converted a comparatively massive number of 767s to freighter during the same window the 10 A330s rolled out, and they are preparing for high demand for the 77W conversion.

Even with both of these programs in place I anticipate the demand for the 778f will be consistent. This pandemic surge has seen a massive resurrection of 744 and even some 742 freighters from the boneyard. Engines are going to be the limiting factor and the 747 fleets are feeling a squeeze from the 767 freighter fleet as well since they use the same motors. We will ride this current wave through the end of the coming peak, afterwards what shakes out will be interesting.


The speed of conversions do not depend on when a program was launched, but when the first bird was certified and delivered. EFW does other things than converting A330. They have converted over 200 A300/310 and are converting A320/321.
Now they have 4 conversions running concurrently in Dresden. I think STF in Singapore, their partner, are converting too.

Bedek has up to now not delivered one 777 p2f. The certification is quite a big undertaking.

How many 767 has Bedek converted? I count about 200 767 p2f, how many did Bedek?

About 200 767, both -200 and -300 have been converted to freighters. I was a bit astonished that is about the same number as A300/310 converted.
All the talk is about the 767.

As Bedek is not the only operation converting 767 p2f, I assume that EFW converted a few more A300/310 than Bedek converted 767.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:25 pm

Someone83 wrote:
Guess Boeing has to do something to save the 777X program...


You make is sound like the A-380 program.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:51 pm

I have to agree that all big airplanes have problems right now including the 777 (and the A350-1000). Airlines are more cautious and prefer more mainstream airplane sizes over the very big size. That's not any fault of the triple seven but it practically ends up within this same group with at least low demand for some time.

Will big airplanes be needed again one day? I'd say yes.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:12 pm

Opus99 wrote:
SEPilot wrote:
Why did QR sell off their A330Fs but retain a substantial fleet of 777Fs? The fact that they did that, along with AABs comments about Airbus, regardless of what they were based on, seems to give a substantial edge to Boeing for this deal.

Let’s not forget the heap of credits QR will have with Boeing from 777X delays and 737 MAX delays. Akbar says they’ve cancelled the MAX order and will replace it with something else

Cancelling their MAX order will have resulted in the loss of credits. Depending on timing, they perhaps have accrued no Tier 3 credits. Remaining MAX credits are transferrable $ for $ to new MAX or new 777X orders, but discounted for other models purchased, or even further if applied to milestone payments on existing orders.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:23 pm

I would expect Boeing and Airbus to also offer part exchange for the 777Fs. Buy the 777Fs off QR for the sale of the new freighters. Those 777Fs are highly marketable
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 7:48 pm

Opus99 wrote:
I would expect Boeing and Airbus to also offer part exchange for the 777Fs. Buy the 777Fs off QR for the sale of the new freighters. Those 777Fs are highly marketable


I'm not saying Boeing won't but those aircraft are highly marketable now, its not a foregone conclusion that would be the case in 2025 or whenever.
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:03 pm

Opus99 wrote:
One more interesting thing to add. Which I did not know.

But apparently the 8F actually sits in size between the -8 and in the -9.

"The 777 Classic line is sustained by the 777-200LRF. The 777-8F concept is a couple of frames longer than the -8P but shorter than the 777-9."

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/04/hotr- ... he-777-8f/


This is very interesting.... you know what else sits in size between the -8 and the -9? The 300ER.

Might the 778F end up the same length as the 300ER? Does that help them with production jigs and so forth? That would be intesting... buyers would have the choice of a used 200F, a used P2F 300ERF or a new build 778F. The latter two would be be realtively the same size.... just one would be much more capable and efficient.
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:15 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
I would expect Boeing and Airbus to also offer part exchange for the 777Fs. Buy the 777Fs off QR for the sale of the new freighters. Those 777Fs are highly marketable


I'm not saying Boeing won't but those aircraft are highly marketable now, its not a foregone conclusion that would be the case in 2025 or whenever.

That’s true. I’m just going off the idea that freighters usually have extremely long lives. We still have MD-11s moving around today. So yes that might not be the case but I’d be shocked
 
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:16 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
One more interesting thing to add. Which I did not know.

But apparently the 8F actually sits in size between the -8 and in the -9.

"The 777 Classic line is sustained by the 777-200LRF. The 777-8F concept is a couple of frames longer than the -8P but shorter than the 777-9."

https://leehamnews.com/2020/06/04/hotr- ... he-777-8f/


This is very interesting.... you know what else sits in size between the -8 and the -9? The 300ER.

Might the 778F end up the same length as the 300ER? Does that help them with production jigs and so forth? That would be intesting... buyers would have the choice of a used 200F, a used P2F 300ERF or a new build 778F. The latter two would be be realtively the same size.... just one would be much more capable and efficient.

Oh wow. That is actually true. I didn’t think about that. But how would the payload work on that. It would have to be slightly higher. We’ve heard an MTOW bump to 788,000 lbs. I don’t know how that would work out from a payload perspective
 
emre787
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Re: Boeing offers 777X Freighter to QR. Eyeing Order for 30

Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:21 pm

texl1649 wrote:
Turkish also. None of these airlines have ever operated a RR powered freighter, to my knowledge.


Only Turkish operates 10 A330-200F with RR engines https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Turkish-Airlines

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