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DenverTed
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:28 pm

When do the 753s leave? Will someone else pick them up?
 
DenverTed
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:43 pm

Hopefully they follow the roomy model of the CRJ550. Configure the Max10 with 179 seats and call it the Max 10179.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:53 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
United still needs an A319 replacement for hot and high or short runways. Why not the A320neo as well? (The A320neo can also replace the Boeing 757 on such missions as well.)

A220 is amazing short field. With market fragmentation, they need to do a system approach.

I think UA needs shortfield performance, that favors the A221 over the E2-195. I do not see any E2-190 order in North America due to the cost per passenger (I believe the market will upgauge to a minimum of the E2-195, but field performance will favor the A221).

Boeing says the -8 not for hot/high :( They are selling the -7 for that, my opinion is the A223 has better economics and hot/high. The A221 is amazing hot high.
https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi- ... story.html

Lightsaber


I'm trying to imagine the airport that UA serves that has8
-short runway
-hot and high climate
-on a long route (so max gross weight)
-737/ A320 service

Are there many such airports? It's not obvious that UA (or any major US airline) has much need to short field performance.


STI, SNA, EYW, BOG, and MEX are examples. EGE may be as well.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1286
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:58 pm

Sancho99504 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
Sancho99504 wrote:
I don't know why this site is so enamored with CASM... It does NOT matter how low the CASM of an airplane or the whole fleet is if you can't fill the seats with good yields. If CASM was the end all, be all, WOW, Air Asia X, Air Transat and a few others would be the most profitable airlines in the world pre-covid.


It's all the airlines, not just Anet folks. Look at F9 and NK, ten years ago the aircraft that were the backbones of their fleet were A319s and A320s. I think F9 even operated the A318 for a time. Fast forward to today and the A321 is the backbones of those two carrier's fleet.

I do remember a time when the airlines were up in your face about CASM, PRASM, etc., but as of the last decade or so, not so much.


NK needed to grow and do it with the lowest cost possible, hence the ever growing presence of A321s. They do have a very low CASM but to be profitable, their fares don't cut it.
F9 has lower CASM but wasn't very profitable, if at all.


Costs have to be competitive to compete. Period.

When mainline single aisle trip costs are not significantly different and you’re operating out of capacity constrained hubs, a smaller airplane with higher CASM does not make sense.

NK and F9 were highly profitable before COVID and there’s no reason to think they won’t return to margins that make Delta and Southwest envious.

VictorKilo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
At some point, all these airlines will determine that the operating cost of E75s are too high and they need to go with next generation small mainline aircraft, even if their capacity is a little more than what's optimal.


Maybe United agrees with you that the costs of the E75 are too high, but for United that means that there is no motivation to add additional E75 frames to their network, which reduced the benefits of adding currently available small mainline aircraft to their fleet, to the point that adding an additional fleet type is not something that makes sense right now?

Maybe United is focusing on fighting the next war, not the current war, and see their next war as being capacity constrained airports at all of their major hubs and that a system-wide upsizing, enabled by mass quantities of the largest available models of the two most mass produced narrowbody families in the world is the best thing to fight the next war, rather than incremental capacity on regional jets that enable frequency that United won't be able to use in capacity constrained airports?


Exactly. This is about the long term, not tomorrow.

You can add banks at EWR, SFO, IAH, LAX or DEN. There’s room to grow frequencies in some banks, but there’s not the same type of capacity that AA and DL have in their biggest hubs. This means that United needs to grow with gauge, a story that was articulated pretty well today.

I don’t think Delta’s smaller gauge strategy is bad: they have different assets, such as larger hubs with lower O&D. I think other operators of smaller aircraft will suffer as ULCCs will eat their lunch on the low end.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:58 pm

DenverTed wrote:
When do the 753s leave? Will someone else pick them up?

Unknown. I posted a link earlier in this thread to a flightglobal.com paywalled article where Kirby says they're still looking for a way to replace for them.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:58 pm

Coalways wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
Would love to know if the Exits behind the Wings of the MAX10 will be plugged as well. They could remain just below 189 seats with the 20 First seats and large amount of Economy Plus I think.


No they will not be plugged…. Will be a active door for emergency.


The first 3 have already been built as N27751/2/3 as test registrations and for testing. N27753 is in full UA livery with that door activated and the other two are in Boeing house livery. I don’t think one can order that model without it activated, although one overwing exit could be deactivated.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1286
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 8:59 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
A220 is amazing short field. With market fragmentation, they need to do a system approach.

I think UA needs shortfield performance, that favors the A221 over the E2-195. I do not see any E2-190 order in North America due to the cost per passenger (I believe the market will upgauge to a minimum of the E2-195, but field performance will favor the A221).

Boeing says the -8 not for hot/high :( They are selling the -7 for that, my opinion is the A223 has better economics and hot/high. The A221 is amazing hot high.
https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi- ... story.html

Lightsaber


I'm trying to imagine the airport that UA serves that has8
-short runway
-hot and high climate
-on a long route (so max gross weight)
-737/ A320 service

Are there many such airports? It's not obvious that UA (or any major US airline) has much need to short field performance.


STI, SNA, EYW, BOG, and MEX are examples. EGE may be as well.


The MAX 8 can operate out of all those airports, ex-EYW, with limited restrictions to United hubs.

Any airline that buys a plane for the outlier airports is stupid.
 
UA748i
Posts: 152
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 9:01 pm

United1 wrote:
UA748i wrote:
The question is, will this replace anything?

Those A320s seem prime to leave.


UA said around 200 50 seat RJs will be leaving the fleet and around 100 mainline won’t be upgraded with PTVs as they will be leaving the fleet over the next few years.

40 deliveries in 2022
138 in 2023 :hyper:


Good God, that's like one every other day :faint:

MTX will be busy activating a/c for awhile.
 
tphuang
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 10:20 pm

VictorKilo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
At some point, all these airlines will determine that the operating cost of E75s are too high and they need to go with next generation small mainline aircraft, even if their capacity is a little more than what's optimal.


Maybe United agrees with you that the costs of the E75 are too high, but for United that means that there is no motivation to add additional E75 frames to their network, which reduced the benefits of adding currently available small mainline aircraft to their fleet, to the point that adding an additional fleet type is not something that makes sense right now?

Maybe United is focusing on fighting the next war, not the current war, and see their next war as being capacity constrained airports at all of their major hubs and that a system-wide upsizing, enabled by mass quantities of the largest available models of the two most mass produced narrowbody families in the world is the best thing to fight the next war, rather than incremental capacity on regional jets that enable frequency that United won't be able to use in capacity constrained airports?


it really weirds me out that you have a name based on soviet submarines and repeatedly use the word war.

Here is the thing. Frequencies is important. On most business market, you need frequency. Going from 50 to 160 seat aircraft does not work. Demand does not triple that quickly.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10014
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:06 pm

sxf24 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
kitplane01 wrote:

I'm trying to imagine the airport that UA serves that has8
-short runway
-hot and high climate
-on a long route (so max gross weight)
-737/ A320 service

Are there many such airports? It's not obvious that UA (or any major US airline) has much need to short field performance.


STI, SNA, EYW, BOG, and MEX are examples. EGE may be as well.


The MAX 8 can operate out of all those airports, ex-EYW, with limited restrictions to United hubs.

Any airline that buys a plane for the outlier airports is stupid.


I don't see the point about asserting need for 221 or 223s the week Kirby is cited as saying UA isn't shopping that category. A few people should spend some more time looking at objective realities.
 
N649DL
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:10 pm

ILikeTrains wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
I sure tried to read the last 5 pages and get a final count. Do we have a summary? Feel free to update as needed.

250x Max10 (0 delivered)
90x Max8 (1 delivered)
??x Max9 (30 delivered)

70 321NEO
40 321XLR


50 321XLR’s and 80 Max9’s. Totals out to 120 A321’s and 420 737Max’s.

They have ~400 combined A320/B737s that are nearing if not already beyond 20 years old, plus another 136 739ERs that are fairly young.


Guaranteed the original 12 739 that aren't -ERs are going to be gone too. Quite a few A320 were delivered in 1993-1994 so those will also get hit.
 
bigb
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:19 pm

tphuang wrote:
VictorKilo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
At some point, all these airlines will determine that the operating cost of E75s are too high and they need to go with next generation small mainline aircraft, even if their capacity is a little more than what's optimal.


Maybe United agrees with you that the costs of the E75 are too high, but for United that means that there is no motivation to add additional E75 frames to their network, which reduced the benefits of adding currently available small mainline aircraft to their fleet, to the point that adding an additional fleet type is not something that makes sense right now?

Maybe United is focusing on fighting the next war, not the current war, and see their next war as being capacity constrained airports at all of their major hubs and that a system-wide upsizing, enabled by mass quantities of the largest available models of the two most mass produced narrowbody families in the world is the best thing to fight the next war, rather than incremental capacity on regional jets that enable frequency that United won't be able to use in capacity constrained airports?


it really weirds me out that you have a name based on soviet submarines and repeatedly use the word war.

Here is the thing. Frequencies is important. On most business market, you need frequency. Going from 50 to 160 seat aircraft does not work. Demand does not triple that quickly.


What’s amazing is that his name probably isn’t based on Russian Diesel Boats, but most likely the phonetic spelling of VK.

Folks have to remember, at the time of the CO and UA merger. The combine airline United lacked the gauge to be competitive domestically with with DL and AA. There were a ton routes where UA had RJs flying and competing against AA and DL mainline gauge and it got worst under Smisek his is capacity discipline approach to help out his own bottomline until Munoz and Kirby started to right this ship. This is the order that is needed for UA badly fill out the flying out of their hubs by upguaging especially those that have limitations (EWR, SFO, ORD, LAX). Remember, some of the newer 739ERs and newer NG birds will stick around for a minute. So there is also growth with these orders.

So you can’t compare DL hubs with UA. Different hubs with different AC needs. I am sure when the time is right, UA will order the smaller aircraft when it’s needed. Right now, it isn’t needed as badly as folks want to believe.
Last edited by bigb on Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1286
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Tue Jun 29, 2021 11:24 pm

tphuang wrote:
VictorKilo wrote:
tphuang wrote:
At some point, all these airlines will determine that the operating cost of E75s are too high and they need to go with next generation small mainline aircraft, even if their capacity is a little more than what's optimal.


Maybe United agrees with you that the costs of the E75 are too high, but for United that means that there is no motivation to add additional E75 frames to their network, which reduced the benefits of adding currently available small mainline aircraft to their fleet, to the point that adding an additional fleet type is not something that makes sense right now?

Maybe United is focusing on fighting the next war, not the current war, and see their next war as being capacity constrained airports at all of their major hubs and that a system-wide upsizing, enabled by mass quantities of the largest available models of the two most mass produced narrowbody families in the world is the best thing to fight the next war, rather than incremental capacity on regional jets that enable frequency that United won't be able to use in capacity constrained airports?


it really weirds me out that you have a name based on soviet submarines and repeatedly use the word war.

Here is the thing. Frequencies is important. On most business market, you need frequency. Going from 50 to 160 seat aircraft does not work. Demand does not triple that quickly.


Yes, frequency is important and United could buy A220s to upgauge flights today. Then in 2-3 years, when they’ll have to upgauge to bigger airplanes and have no place to fly the A220s since all their hubs except IAD have capacity limitations.

United is not Delta.
 
graceintheair
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:11 am

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:10 am

sxf24 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
VictorKilo wrote:

Maybe United agrees with you that the costs of the E75 are too high, but for United that means that there is no motivation to add additional E75 frames to their network, which reduced the benefits of adding currently available small mainline aircraft to their fleet, to the point that adding an additional fleet type is not something that makes sense right now?

Maybe United is focusing on fighting the next war, not the current war, and see their next war as being capacity constrained airports at all of their major hubs and that a system-wide upsizing, enabled by mass quantities of the largest available models of the two most mass produced narrowbody families in the world is the best thing to fight the next war, rather than incremental capacity on regional jets that enable frequency that United won't be able to use in capacity constrained airports?


it really weirds me out that you have a name based on soviet submarines and repeatedly use the word war.

Here is the thing. Frequencies is important. On most business market, you need frequency. Going from 50 to 160 seat aircraft does not work. Demand does not triple that quickly.


Yes, frequency is important and United could buy A220s to upgauge flights today. Then in 2-3 years, when they’ll have to upgauge to bigger airplanes and have no place to fly the A220s since all their hubs except IAD have capacity limitations.

United is not Delta.


I don't think I'd consider IAH or DEN to be capacity limited.
 
sxf24
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:42 am

graceintheair wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

it really weirds me out that you have a name based on soviet submarines and repeatedly use the word war.

Here is the thing. Frequencies is important. On most business market, you need frequency. Going from 50 to 160 seat aircraft does not work. Demand does not triple that quickly.


Yes, frequency is important and United could buy A220s to upgauge flights today. Then in 2-3 years, when they’ll have to upgauge to bigger airplanes and have no place to fly the A220s since all their hubs except IAD have capacity limitations.

United is not Delta.


I don't think I'd consider IAH or DEN to be capacity limited.


Gate limited. United said they’re not willing to invest in more gates.
 
bigb
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:54 am

graceintheair wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

it really weirds me out that you have a name based on soviet submarines and repeatedly use the word war.

Here is the thing. Frequencies is important. On most business market, you need frequency. Going from 50 to 160 seat aircraft does not work. Demand does not triple that quickly.


Yes, frequency is important and United could buy A220s to upgauge flights today. Then in 2-3 years, when they’ll have to upgauge to bigger airplanes and have no place to fly the A220s since all their hubs except IAD have capacity limitations.

United is not Delta.


I don't think I'd consider IAH or DEN to be capacity limited.


IAH is gate limited.....
 
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FLALEFTY
Posts: 1082
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 11:33 am

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:57 am

Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:

The only possible replacement in the market for that are E2 and A220.

There is still the A319neo and Max 7. It may not be as optimal as the other mentioned planes but depending on expected fleet size it may win out versus adding a new fleet type. Just like NK and WN decided.


I imagine that with the huge MAX order UA will have the option available to convert some it to MAX7's when they need to start replacing B737-700's and A319's. That order for 150 MAX 10's seems extreme, but that's how UA rolls - for now...
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 575
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 12:57 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
william wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Well, this ends the E2/A220 discussion. UA is not going that small
https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/uni ... 58.article

Scott Kirby, the carrier’s chief executive, is clear that larger narrowbody jets, not smaller, will anchor United’s future fleet. “We are not in the marketplace today for jets that seat 100 to 130 passengers,” he says.

Well, that is that. :cry2:

The MAX8 anchors the bottom of the fleet for now.

Lightsaber


There is talk of a future pilot shortage, United is not going to waste a valuable asset on a 100 seats when it can fly 180 seats.

There will never be a pilot shortage at UAL (except maybe short term issues being behind the curve with hiring/training). The shortage will only exist at regionals and substandard cargo outfits. So flying a 100 seater at mainline wouldn’t be affected by a regional shortage. Might actually help mitigate it.


When the majors upgrade from RJ flying to mainline flying, it will move the supply problem to the new bottom of the line which will be the entry level positions at the majors. Same or more aircraft in the sky only means more demand for pilots
 
Vctony
Posts: 718
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 1999 10:51 am

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:03 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:

The only possible replacement in the market for that are E2 and A220.

There is still the A319neo and Max 7. It may not be as optimal as the other mentioned planes but depending on expected fleet size it may win out versus adding a new fleet type. Just like NK and WN decided.


I imagine that with the huge MAX order UA will have the option available to convert some it to MAX7's when they need to start replacing B737-700's and A319's. That order for 150 MAX 10's seems extreme, but that's how UA rolls - for now...


Kirby seems to come from the AA school of aircraft sizing. After the US management took over AA they converted all of AA’s outstanding A319 orders to A321s. I don’t know if they’ll ever order anything smaller than a 738 for the foreseeable future.

AA hasn't ordered any additional new aircraft in that size category (only a handful of used A319s).
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 575
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:08 am

All of this what about the 319 replacement, what about the 753 replacement, etc is interesting but the fact of the matter is United will likely work on other parts of the fleet in a few years. As such, I wouldn’t count out a 220, additional or conversion MAX 7 order, or the MOM. I think this part of their fleet strategy is the most urgent need for the moment and therefore the one they are addressing at the moment. They have 5 more years before that 319, 753, and 763 replacement issues become urgent

Excepting the PW777 pickle they are currently in at the moment, their WB fleet strategy is in really decent shape for a while, giving them room to continue this NB strategy perhaps beyond this particular spectacularly large order

One thing at a time
 
graceintheair
Posts: 55
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:11 am

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:17 am

bigb wrote:
graceintheair wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Yes, frequency is important and United could buy A220s to upgauge flights today. Then in 2-3 years, when they’ll have to upgauge to bigger airplanes and have no place to fly the A220s since all their hubs except IAD have capacity limitations.

United is not Delta.


I don't think I'd consider IAH or DEN to be capacity limited.


IAH is gate limited.....


That may be but even pre-cocid United is operating well under Continental's peak at IAH.
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 564
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:22 am

gwrudolph wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
william wrote:

There is talk of a future pilot shortage, United is not going to waste a valuable asset on a 100 seats when it can fly 180 seats.

There will never be a pilot shortage at UAL (except maybe short term issues being behind the curve with hiring/training). The shortage will only exist at regionals and substandard cargo outfits. So flying a 100 seater at mainline wouldn’t be affected by a regional shortage. Might actually help mitigate it.


When the majors upgrade from RJ flying to mainline flying, it will move the supply problem to the new bottom of the line which will be the entry level positions at the majors. Same or more aircraft in the sky only means more demand for pilots


There will never be a pilot supply problem at the large major airlines. Never. Even if their “entry level” jet were a 717, A220, or E175/190/195. There will be a shortage of qualified and experienced pilots at low paying corporate/cargo/regional outfits. There will not be a shortage at major airlines, especially the legacies.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1286
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:24 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
There will never be a pilot shortage at UAL (except maybe short term issues being behind the curve with hiring/training). The shortage will only exist at regionals and substandard cargo outfits. So flying a 100 seater at mainline wouldn’t be affected by a regional shortage. Might actually help mitigate it.


When the majors upgrade from RJ flying to mainline flying, it will move the supply problem to the new bottom of the line which will be the entry level positions at the majors. Same or more aircraft in the sky only means more demand for pilots


There will never be a pilot supply problem at the large major airlines. Never. Even if their “entry level” jet were a 717, A220, or E175/190/195. There will be a shortage of qualified and experienced pilots at low paying corporate/cargo/regional outfits. There will not be a shortage at major airlines, especially the legacies.


If there’s a shortage at other operators, majors will have to pay more. They’re incentivized to increase the efficiency of the pilots.
 
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STT757
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:27 am

gwrudolph wrote:
All of this what about the 319 replacement, what about the 753 replacement, etc is interesting but the fact of the matter is United will likely work on other parts of the fleet in a few years. As such, I wouldn’t count out a 220, additional or conversion MAX 7 order, or the MOM. I think this part of their fleet strategy is the most urgent need for the moment and therefore the one they are addressing at the moment. They have 5 more years before that 319, 753, and 763 replacement issues become urgent

Excepting the PW777 pickle they are currently in at the moment, their WB fleet strategy is in really decent shape for a while, giving them room to continue this NB strategy perhaps beyond this particular spectacularly large order

One thing at a time


The only issue with their widebody fleet, except the Pratt issue, is that there are 767-300s that are turning 30 this year. The 1991 build 767s being the oldest aircraft in their fleet.

The priority should be retiring and replacing the 767-300s that are 1991 and 1992 builds. Next the 1993, 1994, 1995 build A320s.

The 757-200s, the oldest of which is a 1994 build, are already scheduled to be replaced by the A321XLRs.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 575
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:31 am

sxf24 wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:

When the majors upgrade from RJ flying to mainline flying, it will move the supply problem to the new bottom of the line which will be the entry level positions at the majors. Same or more aircraft in the sky only means more demand for pilots


There will never be a pilot supply problem at the large major airlines. Never. Even if their “entry level” jet were a 717, A220, or E175/190/195. There will be a shortage of qualified and experienced pilots at low paying corporate/cargo/regional outfits. There will not be a shortage at major airlines, especially the legacies.


If there’s a shortage at other operators, majors will have to pay more. They’re incentivized to increase the efficiency of the pilots.


Which in the long term may incentivize more pilot careers, but those shifts don’t happen quickly and the general trend has been dwindling supply of pilots. I think in the short and mid term, it just moves the problem from one place to another
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 575
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:36 am

STT757 wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:
All of this what about the 319 replacement, what about the 753 replacement, etc is interesting but the fact of the matter is United will likely work on other parts of the fleet in a few years. As such, I wouldn’t count out a 220, additional or conversion MAX 7 order, or the MOM. I think this part of their fleet strategy is the most urgent need for the moment and therefore the one they are addressing at the moment. They have 5 more years before that 319, 753, and 763 replacement issues become urgent

Excepting the PW777 pickle they are currently in at the moment, their WB fleet strategy is in really decent shape for a while, giving them room to continue this NB strategy perhaps beyond this particular spectacularly large order

One thing at a time


The only issue with their widebody fleet, except the Pratt issue, is that there are 767-300s that are turning 30 this year. The 1991 build 767s being the oldest aircraft in their fleet.

The priority should be retiring and replacing the 767-300s that are 1991 and 1992 builds. Next the 1993, 1994, 1995 build A320s.

The 757-200s, the oldest of which is a 1994 build, are already scheduled to be replaced by the A321XLRs.


I wouldn’t disagree that their next most imminent replacement issue is the 763, but there is just no good replacement at the moment, so I will guess they will stretch those out a little further than normal. The fact that they made the recent nose to tail overhauls on them suggests that’s what they’re thinking.
 
tofur
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Jan 13, 2016 11:51 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:40 am

Congratulations to United Airlines, Airbus and Boeing on this order. It is quite welcome amidst the crisis the industry has endured the last year and a half. It is also a time to remember the massive transformation United Airlines has undergone over the years. I used to scour all the printed timetables from 1972 onward and listen to the pilots talking to ATC on a crude radio, and keep a log of all the flights flying overhead. Now I just shake my head and wonder what I was doing after 40 years in the industry, but it reminds me of why there are so many enthusiasts here. Remember the "Red Carpet" lounges? Nostalgia aside, United Airlines has become a recognized global carrier. Quite an accomplishment! It is very heartening to see that United Airlines sees the value of adding IFE to all of their fleet. As a global carrier it is important that they maintain a seamless product from international to domestic operations.
 
777luver
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:46 am

Funny thing is UA is bragging about now having screens at every seat when some airlines like AC has had that for years and every aircraft haha but congrats to UA it's exciting
 
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green12324
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:49 am

Does anyone know where we can find aircraft retirement information? Right now UAL has about 562 narrowbody aircraft (not counting the 757s). I'm curious how much of this order is for growth and how much is for attrition?
 
Runway765
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 1:54 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
Polot wrote:
tphuang wrote:

The only possible replacement in the market for that are E2 and A220.

There is still the A319neo and Max 7. It may not be as optimal as the other mentioned planes but depending on expected fleet size it may win out versus adding a new fleet type. Just like NK and WN decided.


I imagine that with the huge MAX order UA will have the option available to convert some it to MAX7's when they need to start replacing B737-700's and A319's. That order for 150 MAX 10's seems extreme, but that's how UA rolls - for now...


Yeah, even with the slot constraints, I can’t see UA needing all 250 MAX 10’s they have on order.

Do they have any options on the A321neo order?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:13 am

Runway765 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Polot wrote:
There is still the A319neo and Max 7. It may not be as optimal as the other mentioned planes but depending on expected fleet size it may win out versus adding a new fleet type. Just like NK and WN decided.


I imagine that with the huge MAX order UA will have the option available to convert some it to MAX7's when they need to start replacing B737-700's and A319's. That order for 150 MAX 10's seems extreme, but that's how UA rolls - for now...


Yeah, even with the slot constraints, I can’t see UA needing all 250 MAX 10’s they have on order.


They have 252 A320s, 737-800s and 737-900As, so I’m not sure why 250 MAX 10s is a shock. Given the incremental trip costs are relatively small, there is not much downside risk to buying the larger model. Look at Delta over the past few years, the MD88s and MD90s were replaced with 737-900ERs and A321s.
 
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zkojq
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Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:26 am

Congrats to United + Boeing + Airbus. That's a lot of planes.

Jomar777 wrote:
The Only Airbus Order scheduled to be delivered is their A321XLRs. The A350 Order will go soon. No need for sources - just clear evidence. I believe that, if anything on the segment of 70/76 seats come along will be E175s


And yet it appears that the A350 order is very much staying and wasn't converted to A321neos, despite what many had predicted.
 
NorthTexAAs
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:31 am

Vctony wrote:

Kirby seems to come from the AA school of aircraft sizing.



Ahem... the America West / USAirways school of aircraft sizing...
 
FlyGuy27
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 2:53 am

Posted in a different UA thread, but it flagged that EWR was flying at ~95% revenue LF for the holiday weekend. Granted it's a holiday weekend, but there are times where I cannot find a seat to FL out of EWR during the winter for any amount of money.

They do need more seats - look to DL's frequency on A321s out of LGA (albeit to a hub) to see what kind of lift the NYC market can handle. The more upgauges, the better.
 
CFBFrame
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Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:28 am

keesje wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
seahawk wrote:

If this shows the dominance of the A321, does it not as well show the dominance of the 737-8 over the A320?


It actually does, in recent months we see mainly -8 and A321 orders. Now it would be really interesting what the underlying reasons are. Could be pricing, could be performance, could be general strategic decisions from the OEMs.

Now from the perspective of A&B, if you have full order books you want to sell the airframes with the highest profit margin, but when you have lots of free slots you want to fill them with as many orders as possible.

I suggest, that for Airbus it is not worth to fight the -8 head on on price because Airbus prefers to sell the higher profit A321 over the A320. I have a feeling the shift for Airbus away from the A320 is slowly starting and I would not be surprised if we see a 75% to 25% backlog favouring the A321 towards the end of the decade. Hence Boeings desire to launch an MoM aircraft. The good thing for that is, that Boeing can sell a lot of -8s and might not even has to discount them as much because Airbus does not compete as hard in that segment. So it is somewhat a win win for both, Boeing can fill its backlog profitably and Airbus can make its backlog as profitable as possible.


Airbus sold over 3800 A320NEOs (probably more than 737-8s) so it seems airlines don't have a issues with it. That said the 737-8 is two rows longer and offers commonality with 737NG's.



Thanks - my old buddy for sharing the link. I always wondered why the 737-900ER was important because no airline ever filled it to the max seating. The -900ER carries more passengers than a 757-200 in United config, so United has it's 757-200 replacement. The -900ER carries 179 passengers while the 757-200 carries 169 passengers. In United config, the 737-800 carries 166 passengers while the A320 carries 150 passengers. CASM for the 737 must be better for the 737-800 by 16 passengers, and for the -900ER by 10 passengers? I assume the -8 must be very close because the seat count was not increased over the -800? Maybe it is slightly more than 2 rows?
 
n9801f
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Re: United Airlines confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:50 am

Runway765 wrote:
FLALEFTY wrote:
Polot wrote:
There is still the A319neo and Max 7. It may not be as optimal as the other mentioned planes but depending on expected fleet size it may win out versus adding a new fleet type. Just like NK and WN decided.


I imagine that with the huge MAX order UA will have the option available to convert some it to MAX7's when they need to start replacing B737-700's and A319's. That order for 150 MAX 10's seems extreme, but that's how UA rolls - for now...


Yeah, even with the slot constraints, I can’t see UA needing all 250 MAX 10’s they have on order.

Do they have any options on the A321neo order?

Don't underestimate the power of United's network.

Hubs are superbly placed in largest business O&D points.

For flow, it penetrates major east-west flows better than some competitors whose hubs are more regionally-focused, smaller, or geographically circuitous. This can drive large volumes even to medium sized cities.
 
Max Q
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Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:19 am

zkojq wrote:
Congrats to United + Boeing + Airbus. That's a lot of planes.

Jomar777 wrote:
The Only Airbus Order scheduled to be delivered is their A321XLRs. The A350 Order will go soon. No need for sources - just clear evidence. I believe that, if anything on the segment of 70/76 seats come along will be E175s


And yet it appears that the A350 order is very much staying and wasn't converted to A321neos, despite what many had predicted.



Agree

If UA didn’t want the A350 it’s logical that there would have been some kind of trade involving the A321’s in this order, indeed they would have wanted to take advantage of it


UA is going to need those A350’s to replace many of the older 777’s and it would fill a niche separate from the 787, I believe they’re going to be a significant part of the fleet


As to this order, it seems good, I am concerned about the massive amount of debt it’s adding, especially with such rapid deliveries


It’s one thing to have a huge order that’s spread out over many years along with the associated costs but this is a massive number of deliveries in a very short time I hope UA got a hell of a deal, they probably did



Generally I think you’re better off steadily rolling over your fleet and avoiding huge commitments, not just for the up front costs but it locks you into today’s aircraft technology for many years, as newer, more efficient models come along you can’t take advantage of their improvements because you’re locked into the older versions



It will be interesting to see the next moves
 
miegapele
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Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:44 am

Max Q wrote:
If UA didn’t want the A350 it’s logical that there would have been some kind of trade involving the A321’s in this order, indeed they would have wanted to take advantage of it

It might have happened, just would be revealed later to not spoil the order announcement.
 
UA444
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Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Wed Jun 30, 2021 4:49 am

miegapele wrote:
Max Q wrote:
If UA didn’t want the A350 it’s logical that there would have been some kind of trade involving the A321’s in this order, indeed they would have wanted to take advantage of it

It might have happened, just would be revealed later to not spoil the order announcement.

Major orders for publicly traded companies don’t work that way.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:14 am

It is not an order it is a cancellation.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:19 am

seahawk wrote:
It is not an order it is a cancellation.


UA ordered 70 A321neos. That is an indisputable fact, even if it is accompanied by a cancellation (which there is no indication it is). Do you have evidence the A359 order was cancelled?
 
pranav7478
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:13 am

since in their promo video they said that there is space in the overhead bins for a carry on for every single passenger, does that mean basic economy gets carryon again? or is it just enough space for normal economy passengers and above?
 
amtravels
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:21 am

pranav7478 wrote:
since in their promo video they said that there is space in the overhead bins for a carry on for every single passenger, does that mean basic economy gets carryon again? or is it just enough space for normal economy passengers and above?


I would imagine that once the retrofits are complete or mostly complete, BE will be allowed to bring carry ons. As-is, UA has one of the greatest overhead bin space deficiencies in the U.S. given the age of their aircraft and interiors. From a “United Next“ and customer experience perspective, BE customers should be able to bring bags onboard. I imagine that is United’s goal, they just don have the equipment to do it right now without pissing people off who paid for regular Y. If a regular Y pax boards late but all the remaining overhead bin space was already taken by BE pax…. well, bad news.
 
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BlueSky1976
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:43 am

seahawk wrote:
It is not an order it is a cancellation.

In your wet dreams.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:57 am

jbs2886 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It is not an order it is a cancellation.


UA ordered 70 A321neos. That is an indisputable fact, even if it is accompanied by a cancellation (which there is no indication it is). Do you have evidence the A359 order was cancelled?


I was just pointing out that a cancellation can be reported at a different time than an order. Airbus and UA could report this at the end of the quarter and would still be fine legally. There is no indication this happened though, but there is no legal requirement to announce the order and the cancellation in one go.
 
AAMDanny
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 7:57 am

DenverTed wrote:
When do the 753s leave? Will someone else pick them up?


I could easily imagine them heading to Russia or Eastern Europe with a holiday/vacation charter style airline. I believe Azure Air Ukraine has just picked up x2 B753's... they easily seat 280 in an all-Y config which offers great economics and low acquisition/lease costs for the kind of flying those kind of airline demand.
 
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keesje
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:13 am

seahawk wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
seahawk wrote:
It is not an order it is a cancellation.


UA ordered 70 A321neos. That is an indisputable fact, even if it is accompanied by a cancellation (which there is no indication it is). Do you have evidence the A359 order was cancelled?


I was just pointing out that a cancellation can be reported at a different time than an order. Airbus and UA could report this at the end of the quarter and would still be fine legally. There is no indication this happened though, but there is no legal requirement to announce the order and the cancellation in one go.


I far as I can see, United might well order additional A350's, pull forward existing orders; Cargo became more important, the PW777s might get parted out, interest rates are low & oil is on the rise. An A350 moves 12-13t more than a 789 on a typical (>10 hr) Pacific flights. https://epsilonaviation.files.wordpress ... debody.jpg.

Image
http://www.airline-empires.com/index.ph ... 0-concept/

More interesting IMO is what they are going to do with the 763ER fleet, average age today 25.5 years. Likely to stay 5 more years? Maybe put in bigger, costlier 788s after all?
 
graceintheair
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Re: United Airlines in advanced talks on purchasing 100-150 737MAX

Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:42 am

UA444 wrote:
miegapele wrote:
Max Q wrote:
If UA didn’t want the A350 it’s logical that there would have been some kind of trade involving the A321’s in this order, indeed they would have wanted to take advantage of it

It might have happened, just would be revealed later to not spoil the order announcement.

Major orders for publicly traded companies don’t work that way.


It just depends. Delta didn't announce their 787 cancelation when they ordered the 739 but not was announced later.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:49 am

keesje wrote:

I far as I can see, United might well order additional A350's, pull forward existing orders; Cargo became more important, the PW777s might get parted out, interest rates are low & oil is on the rise. An A350 moves 12-13t more than a 789 on a typical (>10 hr) Pacific flights. https://epsilonaviation.files.wordpress ... debody.jpg.


I wondered this. If DL get 13 used A350s, they may want to defer their next few direct orders from Airbus, providing an opportunity for UA.
 
Asiaflyer
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Wed Jun 30, 2021 10:59 am

keesje wrote:

More interesting IMO is what they are going to do with the 763ER fleet, average age today 25.5 years. Likely to stay 5 more years? Maybe put in bigger, costlier 788s after all?


A combination of A321 and 788 might have to do the job in replacing both 753 and 763. There is not much else suitable in the market after all, is it?

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