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ILikeTrains
Posts: 116
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:18 am

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:21 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
STT757 wrote:
gwrudolph wrote:
All of this what about the 319 replacement, what about the 753 replacement, etc is interesting but the fact of the matter is United will likely work on other parts of the fleet in a few years. As such, I wouldn’t count out a 220, additional or conversion MAX 7 order, or the MOM. I think this part of their fleet strategy is the most urgent need for the moment and therefore the one they are addressing at the moment. They have 5 more years before that 319, 753, and 763 replacement issues become urgent

Excepting the PW777 pickle they are currently in at the moment, their WB fleet strategy is in really decent shape for a while, giving them room to continue this NB strategy perhaps beyond this particular spectacularly large order

One thing at a time


The only issue with their widebody fleet, except the Pratt issue, is that there are 767-300s that are turning 30 this year. The 1991 build 767s being the oldest aircraft in their fleet.

The priority should be retiring and replacing the 767-300s that are 1991 and 1992 builds. Next the 1993, 1994, 1995 build A320s.

The 757-200s, the oldest of which is a 1994 build, are already scheduled to be replaced by the A321XLRs.


A subfleet of MAX 10s should replace the 167-seat B763s on domestic missions with an international-style J. For the B763s, B764s, and the B753s, the B788 appears to be the best fit for replacement. (At least they aren't as used as some Delta B763s which are closing in on 136,000 hours.) Likewise, for the 19 B772s (and the PW frames to be converted to 362-seat configurations), a top-up B78X in a higher-density configuration would be useful, for delivery around 2026-2027 (when the P&W fleet starts to leave the fleet). The question is then what replaces the GE-powered B772 fleet.


Both the GE & PW 77Es will end up being replaced with the A350.
 
graceintheair
Posts: 55
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:27 am

An A350 seems like overkill for most routes UA uses the 77E on. It just isn't needed for routes like IAD-MUC. The can just have multiple configurations for 787's depending on J demand.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1085
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:33 am

chrisnh wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
Many have asked why so many aircraft now. Of course, they need them to replace and grow. However, the...most important factors which exist are 1) interest rates at a very low cost


Over the timeframe where these planes are delivered, isn't it about what the interest rates are then versus what they are now? In other words, if the Fed takes action to stem perceived inflation, wouldn't that raise borrowing costs going forward?



That is a really good question. Does anyone know how a purchase like this is funded - do they issue new equipment bonds or are they funded out of a revolving line of credit? Especially because the airline is not taking delivery until years out. How much would the deposits be?
 
sldispatcher
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Joined: Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:55 am

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:38 am

DEN1895 wrote:
sldispatcher wrote:
I like the idea of the narrow body order as it is. They may not be at slot constrained airports as hubs, but they are definitely at gate constrained airports as hubs. I can think of only the new gates coming online at Denver and the possibility of adding banks at IAD that can absorb the growth of so many aircraft. With such a drop in 200 seaters, I suppose some of the IAH B gates can get reconfigured to handle ERJ-175's and open up some of the mainline gates for the 737/A32x fleets.

Will all of DEN new gates be able to handle the narrow body jets or some being specifically designed for 76 seat and under category?


Here is the gate breakdown of 2019 vs 2022. It is obvious that they were preparing for more/larger narrow body aircraft. Keep in mind that a WB gate can be used by a NB, and a gate designed for an E-175 can be used for a CRJ, I am listing the max aircraft in each gate so some addition may be required for the smaller aircraft.
2019
WB-6
NB-27
E-175-17
CRJ-17
2022
WB-12
NB-57
E-175-11
CRJ-11


Those 30 additional NB gates (and 6 add'l versatile WB gates) are going to "consume" quite a few aircraft when you think how many banks per day they can do there. Between there and opportunities around the system to upgauge and IAD, all those new planes have plenty of places to go.
 
jayunited
Posts: 3608
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 2:11 am

graceintheair wrote:
An A350 seems like overkill for most routes UA uses the 77E on. It just isn't needed for routes like IAD-MUC. The can just have multiple configurations for 787's depending on J demand.


And yet the A350 order is still on the books despite some predictions that UA would convert the A359 order for A321NEOs.

Only time will tell what the future holds.
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 2:31 am

DenverTed wrote:
Hopefully they follow the roomy model of the CRJ550. Configure the Max10 with 179 seats and call it the Max 10179.

You may be onto something. FWIW, something along those lines was the rumor right before Covid happened.

Anybody else remember this rumor for the 737 MAX 10?

Image

Scoop: United To Install Lie-Flat Seats On 737-10 Fleet
 
DCA350
Posts: 231
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 2:46 am

graceintheair wrote:
An A350 seems like overkill for most routes UA uses the 77E on. It just isn't needed for routes like IAD-MUC. The can just have multiple configurations for 787's depending on J demand.


That's not normally a 777 route.. the 787s will eventually replace the 767s and be the backbone of the Atlantic fleet. The A350s will do the heavy lifting over the Pacific and heavy cargo routes that don't need the 300ER. It will be a very balanced fleet.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:20 am

DCA350 wrote:
graceintheair wrote:
An A350 seems like overkill for most routes UA uses the 77E on. It just isn't needed for routes like IAD-MUC. The can just have multiple configurations for 787's depending on J demand.


That's not normally a 777 route.. the 787s will eventually replace the 767s and be the backbone of the Atlantic fleet. The A350s will do the heavy lifting over the Pacific and heavy cargo routes that don't need the 300ER. It will be a very balanced fleet.

I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.
 
graceintheair
Posts: 55
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:33 am

TWA772LR wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
graceintheair wrote:
An A350 seems like overkill for most routes UA uses the 77E on. It just isn't needed for routes like IAD-MUC. The can just have multiple configurations for 787's depending on J demand.


That's not normally a 777 route.. the 787s will eventually replace the 767s and be the backbone of the Atlantic fleet. The A350s will do the heavy lifting over the Pacific and heavy cargo routes that don't need the 300ER. It will be a very balanced fleet.

I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


I don't think anyone is arguing that. It can be argued that a 777 was never appropriate for a route like IAD-MUC but it's all that was available at the time. A 767 was appropriate for range but maybe not capacity. A 777 was appropriate for capacity but too much range and weight. Just like 747's back in the day were overkill for the routes they were on. But it's all that was available. A 787 provides the capacity needed but not the extra range and weight/fuel burn of a 777/A350.
 
sxf24
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:39 am

graceintheair wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
DCA350 wrote:

That's not normally a 777 route.. the 787s will eventually replace the 767s and be the backbone of the Atlantic fleet. The A350s will do the heavy lifting over the Pacific and heavy cargo routes that don't need the 300ER. It will be a very balanced fleet.

I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


I don't think anyone is arguing that. It can be argued that a 777 was never appropriate for a route like IAD-MUC but it's all that was available at the time. A 767 was appropriate for range but maybe not capacity. A 777 was appropriate for capacity but too much range and weight. Just like 747's back in the day were overkill for the routes they were on. But it's all that was available. A 787 provides the capacity needed but not the extra range and weight/fuel burn of a 777/A350.


The differences between the 787-9 and A350 are being magnified, like they’re significantly different. No one has found a single route that UA could fly with an A350 that it can’t with the 787. There are some where a bit more payload could be carried, but it’s not a step change. The airplanes are not that different. UA may decide it wants to have both, or it may not. They can build a viable network either way.
 
SFOtoORD
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:48 am

UA444 wrote:
CRJ200flyer wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

Who are those apologists? Can you name them or is this just your feel good straw man. Who cares anyway? Some consumers will like it so good for United. For the people that don’t care it won’t cause them any issue.


Well of course I’m not going to name them on a public forum. I’m referring to friends and acquaintances of mine (as well as the many times this topic was discussed on this very website) who I debated with many years ago as Delta was adding TVs to their aircraft while United was flying around an incredibly inconsistent product, particularly on the 737. You never knew what was coming to the gate - a DirectTv 737 that you had to pay to use the entertainment on (and even then you were forced to just watch cable TV with commercials) or a 737 that had bring-your-own device entertainment. These people would argue with me all day long that the TVs on Delta were a waste of weight and that personal devices were the way of the future. They said everyone has an iPad or similar tablet, so there was no point for United to waste money on it like Delta. And now here are those same people texting me about how innovative United is and how it just wasn’t the right time before because the technology hadn’t matured yet… LOL. My point is, like politics and sports teams, all of a sudden these United fans turn around and say it’s the greatest decision ever. I do agree with the decision - it’s a decade late. But I am very happy for the customers and industry at large to see improvements in the passenger experience.

No you’re exactly right, the same people here cheered when they ripped out the IFE on domestic planes as “way of the future” “nobody needs it” “read a book” while continuing to lag behind DL in customer service and profitability. Jeff Smisek was the smartest person in the room and you could not question it! Just like leaving JFK was the “right move”.


So, still straw man?

It’s the most fun part of Internet forums.
 
Max Q
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:57 am

Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?
 
FSDan
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:12 am

TWA772LR wrote:
DCA350 wrote:
graceintheair wrote:
An A350 seems like overkill for most routes UA uses the 77E on. It just isn't needed for routes like IAD-MUC. The can just have multiple configurations for 787's depending on J demand.


That's not normally a 777 route.. the 787s will eventually replace the 767s and be the backbone of the Atlantic fleet. The A350s will do the heavy lifting over the Pacific and heavy cargo routes that don't need the 300ER. It will be a very balanced fleet.

I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


The 77E definitely was the mainstay on IAD-MUC over recent years. Funnily, LH uses their 359s on many such "overkill" routes (including IAD-MUC itself). MUC-CLT/EWR/JFK/BOS/DEL/BOM all come to mind.
 
FSDan
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:14 am

Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?


Part of it is likely attractive pricing and delivery slots. Both types also have commonality with other aircraft that were already on order. The 321s will fit slightly more seats, which Kirby indicated will be helpful in constrained airports such as EWR and SFO.
 
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keesje
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:17 am

FSDan wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
DCA350 wrote:

That's not normally a 777 route.. the 787s will eventually replace the 767s and be the backbone of the Atlantic fleet. The A350s will do the heavy lifting over the Pacific and heavy cargo routes that don't need the 300ER. It will be a very balanced fleet.

I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


The 77E definitely was the mainstay on IAD-MUC over recent years. Funnily, LH uses their 359s on many such "overkill" routes (including IAD-MUC itself). MUC-CLT/EWR/JFK/BOS/DEL/BOM all come to mind.


The 77E performs best on longer range flights, specially to/from Asia over the last 25 yrs. On typical transatlantic routes it can carry 25t tons of cargo on top of 300 passengers. If that cargo requirement is there on a specific route, that obviously helps compensate it's higher set mile costs.
 
RoyalBrunei757
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:20 am

United views 737 Max 7s as potential 737-700 replacements

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/uni ... 77.article

Not sure if this has been shared. Maybe more MAX order is coming?
 
DCA350
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:33 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
United views 737 Max 7s as potential 737-700 replacements

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/uni ... 77.article

Not sure if this has been shared. Maybe more MAX order is coming?


I guess it would be cheaper than introducing the A220. Interesting the MAX 7 is the only MAX outselling it's A320 rival.. They really found a niche with some carriers.
 
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keesje
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:40 am

RoyalBrunei757 wrote:
United views 737 Max 7s as potential 737-700 replacements

https://www.flightglobal.com/fleets/uni ... 77.article

Not sure if this has been shared. Maybe more MAX order is coming?


Probably conversions. Would UA become the second or third 737-7 customer worldwide? Is Westjet still on?
 
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NYPECO
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:58 am

Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?


Also aircraft can be delivered faster when they're not all ordered from one manufacturer.
 
VV
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:37 am

Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?



I think it is just to stop any speculation saying, "Boeing gives out 737 MAX for free". or, "Airbus gives out A321neo for free."
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:45 am

VV wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?



I think it is just to stop any speculation saying, "Boeing gives out 737 MAX for free". or, "Airbus gives out A321neo for free."


That is 100% not the reason.

250MAX is about 8-9 months of production (at the moment) and about 6 months when Boeing is back at full production rate. That is huge and chances are that there were no slots for UA to order more in a reasonable time frame. So if Boeing produces 1 month worth of MAX just for UA it takes 6 years till all are on premise (that is 2027). Then there is another month worth of production just for WN (over the next 5 years at least, even more with top up orders).

You can see there was no chance that UA would have gotten 250 NB aircraft over the next years if they would have only ordered from Boeing. This makes it even worse for single operators like WN or FR. They can not split the orders. Thats why the FR and WN orders came so fast/early. They needed to take the production slots as fast as possible or they would have lost out and would have had to wait for a long time.

Chances are Boeing is pretty sold out now for a while and it will be hard to get hands on MAX in a short time frame. It will probably take 18-24 months before Boeing is back at 50+ production rate.

Airbus might be a bit more flexible here and was able to give 70 good slots to UA because production rate is already high and Airbus can increase production if necessary.

EDIT: This calculation also does not take into account that MAX-10 will not be available before 2023. So in order to get large NBs UA was poised to also order A321s if they want to upgauge before 2024/2025 in a meaningful way.

Delta and AA on the other side already have large 321ceo fleets and also 321neos incomming. UA would have fallen behind over the next few years without bringing in A321 themselfs.
Last edited by FluidFlow on Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:58 am

TWA772LR wrote:
I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


The idea of a perfect replacement rests on the foundation that the 77E was the perfect plane for all those routes in the first place. That's just not how it works. Anybody with a background in ops optimization knows this, particularly for long-lived, high-cost assets. The plane doesn't have to be perfect - it just has to be better than any at-hand alternative.
 
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Polot
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:04 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?



I think it is just to stop any speculation saying, "Boeing gives out 737 MAX for free". or, "Airbus gives out A321neo for free."


That is 100% not the reason.

250MAX is about 8-9 months of production (at the moment) and about 6 months when Boeing is back at full production rate. That is huge and chances are that there were no slots for UA to order more in a reasonable time frame. So if Boeing produces 1 month worth of MAX just for UA it takes 6 years till all are on premise (that is 2027). Then there is another month worth of production just for WN (over the next 5 years at least, even more with top up orders).

You can see there was no chance that UA would have gotten 250 NB aircraft over the next years if they would have only ordered from Boeing. This makes it even worse for single operators like WN or FR. They can not split the orders. Thats why the FR and WN orders came so fast/early. They needed to take the production slots as fast as possible or they would have lost out and would have had to wait for a long time.

Chances are Boeing is pretty sold out now for a while and it will be hard to get hands on MAX in a short time frame. It will probably take 18-24 months before Boeing is back at 50+ production rate.

Airbus might be a bit more flexible here and was able to give 70 good slots to UA because production rate is already high and Airbus can increase production if necessary.

EDIT: This calculation also does not take into account that MAX-10 will not be available before 2023. So in order to get large NBs UA was poised to also order A321s if they want to upgauge before 2024/2025 in a meaningful way.

Delta and AA on the other side already have large 321ceo fleets and also 321neos incomming. UA would have fallen behind over the next few years without bringing in A321 themselfs.

While that is certainly a consideration, you also have to remember that projected demand is taken into account for the production numbers Boeing has announced, including having to resell a bunch of white tails. If Boeing was sold out in near term and there was demand for more planes Boeing could probably raise 737 production rates higher than what they have currently announced, even taking into account suppliers needing some time to ramp up from production pause.

These rates were likely decided with the recent large orders from UA/WN/FR etc in mind that Boeing has no doubt been negotiating about for a while.
 
VV
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Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:11 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?



I think it is just to stop any speculation saying, "Boeing gives out 737 MAX for free". or, "Airbus gives out A321neo for free."


That is 100% not the reason.

250MAX is about 8-9 months of production (at the moment) and about 6 months when Boeing is back at full production rate. That is huge and chances are that there were no slots for UA to order more in a reasonable time frame. So if Boeing produces 1 month worth of MAX just for UA it takes 6 years till all are on premise (that is 2027). Then there is another month worth of production just for WN (over the next 5 years at least, even more with top up orders).

You can see there was no chance that UA would have gotten 250 NB aircraft over the next years if they would have only ordered from Boeing. This makes it even worse for single operators like WN or FR. They can not split the orders. Thats why the FR and WN orders came so fast/early. They needed to take the production slots as fast as possible or they would have lost out and would have had to wait for a long time.

Chances are Boeing is pretty sold out now for a while and it will be hard to get hands on MAX in a short time frame. It will probably take 18-24 months before Boeing is back at 50+ production rate.

Airbus might be a bit more flexible here and was able to give 70 good slots to UA because production rate is already high and Airbus can increase production if necessary.

EDIT: This calculation also does not take into account that MAX-10 will not be available before 2023. So in order to get large NBs UA was poised to also order A321s if they want to upgauge before 2024/2025 in a meaningful way.

Delta and AA on the other side already have large 321ceo fleets and also 321neos incomming. UA would have fallen behind over the next few years without bringing in A321 themselfs.


Now people say Boeing's 737 MAX is sold out when at the same time they say MAX is not selling well. What the heck?
Some people also say there are more than 6,000 A320neo in the backlog and hence Airbus cannot deliver.Or are there shaky orders in the backlog?
So, what's the reality in all that?
I think people just saying a lot of rubbish everywhere without even knowing the truth behind the story.

Why don't they add smaller narrowbody like A220-300 in the mix to accelerate the deliveries. Oh snap, they produce only 4-5 per month. So, if the demand is so high why don't they accelerate the production then?
They cannot do it? But hey! Airbus took over the control of the C Series three years ago.
 
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STT757
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:12 pm

NYPECO wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?


Also aircraft can be delivered faster when they're not all ordered from one manufacturer.


I would also throw in with regards to what has happened with the MAX over the past two years, and what is currently going on with the Pratt powered 777s it's probably prudent to not have all your eggs in one basket.
 
bigb
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:21 pm

STT757 wrote:
NYPECO wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?


They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?


Also aircraft can be delivered faster when they're not all ordered from one manufacturer.


I would also throw in with regards to what has happened with the MAX over the past two years, and what is currently going on with the Pratt powered 777s it's probably prudent to not have all your eggs in one basket.


I am not buying reasoning otherwise we would have saw WN leverage their fleet as well....
 
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Polot
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:23 pm

bigb wrote:
STT757 wrote:
NYPECO wrote:

Also aircraft can be delivered faster when they're not all ordered from one manufacturer.


I would also throw in with regards to what has happened with the MAX over the past two years, and what is currently going on with the Pratt powered 777s it's probably prudent to not have all your eggs in one basket.


I am not buying reasoning otherwise we would have saw WN leverage their fleet as well....

WN has a single fleet type. UA already has multiple fleet types, including the A32X, with A321XLRs on order.

Adding a direct competitor into the mix is a whole different equation for UA than WN.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:31 pm

Polot wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:


I think it is just to stop any speculation saying, "Boeing gives out 737 MAX for free". or, "Airbus gives out A321neo for free."


That is 100% not the reason.

250MAX is about 8-9 months of production (at the moment) and about 6 months when Boeing is back at full production rate. That is huge and chances are that there were no slots for UA to order more in a reasonable time frame. So if Boeing produces 1 month worth of MAX just for UA it takes 6 years till all are on premise (that is 2027). Then there is another month worth of production just for WN (over the next 5 years at least, even more with top up orders).

You can see there was no chance that UA would have gotten 250 NB aircraft over the next years if they would have only ordered from Boeing. This makes it even worse for single operators like WN or FR. They can not split the orders. Thats why the FR and WN orders came so fast/early. They needed to take the production slots as fast as possible or they would have lost out and would have had to wait for a long time.

Chances are Boeing is pretty sold out now for a while and it will be hard to get hands on MAX in a short time frame. It will probably take 18-24 months before Boeing is back at 50+ production rate.

Airbus might be a bit more flexible here and was able to give 70 good slots to UA because production rate is already high and Airbus can increase production if necessary.

EDIT: This calculation also does not take into account that MAX-10 will not be available before 2023. So in order to get large NBs UA was poised to also order A321s if they want to upgauge before 2024/2025 in a meaningful way.

Delta and AA on the other side already have large 321ceo fleets and also 321neos incomming. UA would have fallen behind over the next few years without bringing in A321 themselfs.

While that is certainly a consideration, you also have to remember that projected demand is taken into account for the production numbers Boeing has announced, including having to resell a bunch of white tails. If Boeing was sold out in near term and there was demand for more planes Boeing could probably raise 737 production rates higher than what they have currently announced, even taking into account suppliers needing some time to ramp up from production pause.

These rates were likely decided with the recent large orders from UA/WN/FR etc in mind that Boeing has no doubt been negotiating about for a while.


I am pretty sure Boeing will be up to rate 50+ in 2 years but I do not think it is possible to do it earlier, too many suppliers had to downsize due to the grounding. Lead times are long for parts so to get back to 50+ it will take time. So the resent orders and the recovery in production rate seems to align pretty well but it will be really hard to get any MAX slots before 2023/2024. If you can not pick up some white tails or are lucky to get a slot form an airline in bankruptcy the demand might be bigger than production. (I am excluding here the surge of NG/CEO that will come available over the next years due to fleet renewing at ULCCs).

VV wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:


I think it is just to stop any speculation saying, "Boeing gives out 737 MAX for free". or, "Airbus gives out A321neo for free."


That is 100% not the reason.

250MAX is about 8-9 months of production (at the moment) and about 6 months when Boeing is back at full production rate. That is huge and chances are that there were no slots for UA to order more in a reasonable time frame. So if Boeing produces 1 month worth of MAX just for UA it takes 6 years till all are on premise (that is 2027). Then there is another month worth of production just for WN (over the next 5 years at least, even more with top up orders).

You can see there was no chance that UA would have gotten 250 NB aircraft over the next years if they would have only ordered from Boeing. This makes it even worse for single operators like WN or FR. They can not split the orders. Thats why the FR and WN orders came so fast/early. They needed to take the production slots as fast as possible or they would have lost out and would have had to wait for a long time.

Chances are Boeing is pretty sold out now for a while and it will be hard to get hands on MAX in a short time frame. It will probably take 18-24 months before Boeing is back at 50+ production rate.

Airbus might be a bit more flexible here and was able to give 70 good slots to UA because production rate is already high and Airbus can increase production if necessary.

EDIT: This calculation also does not take into account that MAX-10 will not be available before 2023. So in order to get large NBs UA was poised to also order A321s if they want to upgauge before 2024/2025 in a meaningful way.

Delta and AA on the other side already have large 321ceo fleets and also 321neos incomming. UA would have fallen behind over the next few years without bringing in A321 themselfs.


Now people say Boeing's 737 MAX is sold out when at the same time they say MAX is not selling well. What the heck?
Some people also say there are more than 6,000 A320neo in the backlog and hence Airbus cannot deliver.Or are there shaky orders in the backlog?
So, what's the reality in all that?
I think people just saying a lot of rubbish everywhere without even knowing the truth behind the story.

Why don't they add smaller narrowbody like A220-300 in the mix to accelerate the deliveries. Oh snap, they produce only 4-5 per month. So, if the demand is so high why don't they accelerate the production then?
They cannot do it? But hey! Airbus took over the control of the C Series three years ago.


I think it is important to know that selling and being not available does not have to be linked. If I am the only one buying potatoes but I buy all of them on Monday they are not available for any other customer from Tuesday to Sunday. Also The potato producer does not make any sales during this time.

Same for your Airbus comment. Just because Airbus has a Backlog of 6000 does not mean that all the production slots are taken. If Airbus can produce 7000 NBs in 10 years but only sold 6000 they can still sell another 1000.

UA clearly has no interest in the 223 so why bringing it even up?
 
bigb
Posts: 1513
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:30 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:55 pm

Polot wrote:
bigb wrote:
STT757 wrote:

I would also throw in with regards to what has happened with the MAX over the past two years, and what is currently going on with the Pratt powered 777s it's probably prudent to not have all your eggs in one basket.


I am not buying reasoning otherwise we would have saw WN leverage their fleet as well....

WN has a single fleet type. UA already has multiple fleet types, including the A32X, with A321XLRs on order.

Adding a direct competitor into the mix is a whole different equation for UA than WN.


I get that, but what I am not buying that the reasoning of ordering both Airbus and Boeing is to avoid putting all eggs in one basket.
 
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STT757
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:55 pm

The oldest 737-700s and A319s probably are good for 5 more years, which means they can hold off for 2-3 years before they need to make an order for their replacement. A majority of the order they announced on Tuesday will have already been delivered in 3 years, so there's not much they can convert.

It's probably going to be a new order and will either be 737-7MAX, A319NEO, A223. It may even be a split between 737-7MAX and A319NEOs like they just did with the A321NEO and 737-10 MAX.

In the mean time as posted they still have a combined 28 or so additional used A319s and 737-700s to be brought on board. Those aircraft will help with the transition away from the single class 50 seaters.
 
United1
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:55 pm

FluidFlow wrote:

UA clearly has no interest in the 223 so why bringing it even up?


I have no idea whether UA will ever order the 223 but I don't think you can infer from this order UA has no interest in it. This particulars order RFP was for larger gauge NBs the 220's, MAX-7s and EMB 195s were never in the running. At some point UA will have to order aircraft to replace the 319/73Gs and that is where we will see what happens. I don't think the 223 on its own will be enough to make UA order the jet but if Airbus can make a business case for the 221 it has a shot. As discussed as nauseam though UAs network may not work with 100 seat jets and if that is indeed the case the MAX-7 probably has a better shot at making it into the fleet a few years down the road.
 
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STT757
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 12:56 pm

bigb wrote:
Polot wrote:
bigb wrote:

I am not buying reasoning otherwise we would have saw WN leverage their fleet as well....

WN has a single fleet type. UA already has multiple fleet types, including the A32X, with A321XLRs on order.

Adding a direct competitor into the mix is a whole different equation for UA than WN.


I get that, but what I am not buying that the reasoning of ordering both Airbus and Boeing is to avoid putting all eggs in one basket.


I'm not saying that is the sole overriding reason, I'm saying it's a supporting detail.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:01 pm

chrisnh wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
Many have asked why so many aircraft now. Of course, they need them to replace and grow. However, the...most important factors which exist are 1) interest rates at a very low cost


Over the timeframe where these planes are delivered, isn't it about what the interest rates are then versus what they are now? In other words, if the Fed takes action to stem perceived inflation, wouldn't that raise borrowing costs going forward?


As I understand it - and this was explained to me by Greg Brenneman years ago - much of the current fleet is financed under a device known as an Enhance Equipment Trust Certificate (EETC). An EETC is created for each aircraft and operates initially like a “lease-to-own” purchase, but instead of one owner, there are several. The primary owner (generally, a pension, an insurance company or a bank), buys 50+% of the aircraft and gets a lower interest rate, but also gets security in the form of the aircraft in the event of a default. The secondary owner of the EETC has no security, but gets a higher interest rate and the tertiary owner gets an even higher rate, etc. Once the EETC is satisfied, the ownership is transferred to the airline. The EETC is managed by another party, often a bank. As I recall one bank in Salt Lake managed the majority of CO’s EETCs. I suspect, but do not know, that the depreciation is divided by the EETC owners on a per-rata basis.

Please do a search on EETCs. My understanding is that it was a practice that started in the railroad industry and was first used in the airline industry by NW. Originally, CO created ETCs, but the IRS objected to some provisions, so the ETCs were revised into EETCs.

As interest rates rise, I would expect the rates of return on the EETC to increase, too. Tax laws would pay a huge roles as well.
 
CRJockey
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:40 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


The idea of a perfect replacement rests on the foundation that the 77E was the perfect plane for all those routes in the first place. That's just not how it works. Anybody with a background in ops optimization knows this, particularly for long-lived, high-cost assets. The plane doesn't have to be perfect - it just has to be better than any at-hand alternative.


So true, it shall be repeated as many times as possible.
 
MohawkWeekend
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:47 pm

So an airline's payments don't start until the aircraft is under construction or delivered? Would there be down payments for each order? Who would pay those?
 
bigb
Posts: 1513
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:30 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 1:55 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
So an airline's payments don't start until the aircraft is under construction or delivered? Would there be down payments for each order? Who would pay those?


Depends on the order/construction 4contract. I imagine there are milestones during the aircraft construction in which a payment is due with the final payment to Boeing coming due at delivery. Think of like like the car buying process with financing.
 
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Polot
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 2:17 pm

OEMs usually want some form of down payment when an order is placed. With the 737 MAX you have grounding/delay compensation that comes into play though.
 
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FiscAutTecGarte
Posts: 520
Joined: Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:40 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:23 pm

The 30 MAX9 planes that are currently in the fleet.. Will those get the new United Signature interior quickly as well? What enhancements to the Sky Interior does this United Signature add other than the IFE?
 
sxf24
Posts: 1355
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:08 pm

FlyHossD wrote:
chrisnh wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
Many have asked why so many aircraft now. Of course, they need them to replace and grow. However, the...most important factors which exist are 1) interest rates at a very low cost


Over the timeframe where these planes are delivered, isn't it about what the interest rates are then versus what they are now? In other words, if the Fed takes action to stem perceived inflation, wouldn't that raise borrowing costs going forward?


As I understand it - and this was explained to me by Greg Brenneman years ago - much of the current fleet is financed under a device known as an Enhance Equipment Trust Certificate (EETC). An EETC is created for each aircraft and operates initially like a “lease-to-own” purchase, but instead of one owner, there are several. The primary owner (generally, a pension, an insurance company or a bank), buys 50+% of the aircraft and gets a lower interest rate, but also gets security in the form of the aircraft in the event of a default. The secondary owner of the EETC has no security, but gets a higher interest rate and the tertiary owner gets an even higher rate, etc. Once the EETC is satisfied, the ownership is transferred to the airline. The EETC is managed by another party, often a bank. As I recall one bank in Salt Lake managed the majority of CO’s EETCs. I suspect, but do not know, that the depreciation is divided by the EETC owners on a per-rata basis.

Please do a search on EETCs. My understanding is that it was a practice that started in the railroad industry and was first used in the airline industry by NW. Originally, CO created ETCs, but the IRS objected to some provisions, so the ETCs were revised into EETCs.

As interest rates rise, I would expect the rates of return on the EETC to increase, too. Tax laws would pay a huge roles as well.


The airline is the owner of aircraft financed by EETCs and books the depreciation and tax benefit.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 1085
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:21 pm

But isn't like a home mortgage - i.e. if airline goes broke the EETC repo's the plane and eats the loss not the manufacturer? Similar to a leasing company or your home lender, yes?

Still haven't heard if the interest rate over the life of the"mortgage" is fixed at today's rate or will it float up to what it is when progress payments begin by the airline .
 
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Polot
Posts: 12421
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:27 pm

MohawkWeekend wrote:
But isn't like a home mortgage - i.e. if airline goes broke the EETC repo's the plane and eats the loss not the manufacturer? Similar to a leasing company or your home lender, yes?

Still haven't heard if the interest rate over the life of the"mortgage" is fixed at today's rate or will it float up to what it is when progress payments begin by the airline .

Yes. Buying a plane is just like buying a car. Boeing/Airbus/whoever must be paid in full before they hand over the plane, just like the dealer must be paid in full for you to take acquisition of the car. The airline/leasing company is then paying back the lender who loaned them the money to buy the plane.

The only time it is a little different is if the OEM is helping with the finance. But in that case “Boeing Commercial” is paid in full and “Boeing Capital” eats the loss if airline defaults.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1355
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:36 pm

Polot wrote:
MohawkWeekend wrote:
But isn't like a home mortgage - i.e. if airline goes broke the EETC repo's the plane and eats the loss not the manufacturer? Similar to a leasing company or your home lender, yes?

Still haven't heard if the interest rate over the life of the"mortgage" is fixed at today's rate or will it float up to what it is when progress payments begin by the airline .

Yes. Buying a plane is just like buying a car. Boeing/Airbus/whoever must be paid in full before they hand over the plane, just like the dealer must be paid in full for you to take acquisition of the car. The airline/leasing company is then paying back the lender who loaned them the money to buy the plane.

The only time it is a little different is if the OEM is helping with the finance. But in that case “Boeing Commercial” is paid in full and “Boeing Capital” eats the loss if airline defaults.


EETC interest rates are fixed.
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 761
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:46 pm

FiscAutTecGarte wrote:
The 30 MAX9 planes that are currently in the fleet.. Will those get the new United Signature interior quickly as well? What enhancements to the Sky Interior does this United Signature add other than the IFE?

Yes. It includes WIFI upgrades, larger overhead bins, IFE, and more economy + seating. I doubt they will be first in line to get the mods, but they will get them eventually.
 
EssentialBusDC
Posts: 219
Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2017 3:06 am

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:57 pm

graceintheair wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
DCA350 wrote:

That's not normally a 777 route.. the 787s will eventually replace the 767s and be the backbone of the Atlantic fleet. The A350s will do the heavy lifting over the Pacific and heavy cargo routes that don't need the 300ER. It will be a very balanced fleet.

I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


I don't think anyone is arguing that. It can be argued that a 777 was never appropriate for a route like IAD-MUC but it's all that was available at the time. A 767 was appropriate for range but maybe not capacity. A 777 was appropriate for capacity but too much range and weight. Just like 747's back in the day were overkill for the routes they were on. But it's all that was available. A 787 provides the capacity needed but not the extra range and weight/fuel burn of a 777/A350.

Yet UAL has said the 777 is ideal for IAD, and has plans to reopen the 777 base there by next February (possible sooner subject to the ungrounding of the PW 777’s). MUC definitely needs the uplift of the 777 during the high season and also possible year round due to cargo. They tried a 787 on it for a while but then put the 777 back on because of the cargo. The old days of seasonal swapping between the 767/777 doesn’t happen anymore. The DC 787 base has no plans to get larger (basically 4 routes with Beijing being to only constant the other three swapping around various destinations in Europe (LHR, ZRH, BRU, CDG have all seen the 787 as a normal schedule over the years) and GRU).

Yes there is always a route where you fly what you got available, not necessarily the absolute best aircraft for the route. The 787 is not immune to that either.
 
codc10
Posts: 3252
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:04 pm

sxf24 wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:
chrisnh wrote:

Over the timeframe where these planes are delivered, isn't it about what the interest rates are then versus what they are now? In other words, if the Fed takes action to stem perceived inflation, wouldn't that raise borrowing costs going forward?


As I understand it - and this was explained to me by Greg Brenneman years ago - much of the current fleet is financed under a device known as an Enhance Equipment Trust Certificate (EETC). An EETC is created for each aircraft and operates initially like a “lease-to-own” purchase, but instead of one owner, there are several. The primary owner (generally, a pension, an insurance company or a bank), buys 50+% of the aircraft and gets a lower interest rate, but also gets security in the form of the aircraft in the event of a default. The secondary owner of the EETC has no security, but gets a higher interest rate and the tertiary owner gets an even higher rate, etc. Once the EETC is satisfied, the ownership is transferred to the airline. The EETC is managed by another party, often a bank. As I recall one bank in Salt Lake managed the majority of CO’s EETCs. I suspect, but do not know, that the depreciation is divided by the EETC owners on a per-rata basis.

Please do a search on EETCs. My understanding is that it was a practice that started in the railroad industry and was first used in the airline industry by NW. Originally, CO created ETCs, but the IRS objected to some provisions, so the ETCs were revised into EETCs.

As interest rates rise, I would expect the rates of return on the EETC to increase, too. Tax laws would pay a huge roles as well.


The airline is the owner of aircraft financed by EETCs and books the depreciation and tax benefit.


All substantially correct... in the industry, Gerry Laderman is generally considered the "father" of the EETC, and CO was an early/aggressive adopter of the vehicle.
 
DCA350
Posts: 231
Joined: Sat May 04, 2019 7:27 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:04 pm

EssentialBusDC wrote:
graceintheair wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
I have actually flown a 77E on MUC-IAD. Don't remember the LF but I was definitely there. I think it's funny how many posters don't see that the A359 is now Airbus' 77E and is the perfect replacement with nearly identical range and payload capabilities.


I don't think anyone is arguing that. It can be argued that a 777 was never appropriate for a route like IAD-MUC but it's all that was available at the time. A 767 was appropriate for range but maybe not capacity. A 777 was appropriate for capacity but too much range and weight. Just like 747's back in the day were overkill for the routes they were on. But it's all that was available. A 787 provides the capacity needed but not the extra range and weight/fuel burn of a 777/A350.

Yet UAL has said the 777 is ideal for IAD, and has plans to reopen the 777 base there by next February (possible sooner subject to the ungrounding of the PW 777’s). MUC definitely needs the uplift of the 777 during the high season and also possible year round due to cargo. They tried a 787 on it for a while but then put the 777 back on because of the cargo. The old days of seasonal swapping between the 767/777 doesn’t happen anymore. The DC 787 base has no plans to get larger (basically 4 routes with Beijing being to only constant the other three swapping around various destinations in Europe (LHR, ZRH, BRU, CDG have all seen the 787 as a normal schedule over the years) and GRU).

Yes there is always a route where you fly what you got available, not necessarily the absolute best aircraft for the route. The 787 is not immune to that either.


I have always got a 777 to FRA from IAD but with MUC I've gotten a mix of 777 787 and 767. GRU is often a 767 too but I imagine that will become a regular 787 route. But as I previously stated the 787s are primed to replace the 767s and that will allow the A350s to handle the bulk of the 777s..
 
d8s
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:45 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:07 pm

ILikeTrains wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
STT757 wrote:

The only issue with their widebody fleet, except the Pratt issue, is that there are 767-300s that are turning 30 this year. The 1991 build 767s being the oldest aircraft in their fleet.

The priority should be retiring and replacing the 767-300s that are 1991 and 1992 builds. Next the 1993, 1994, 1995 build A320s.

The 757-200s, the oldest of which is a 1994 build, are already scheduled to be replaced by the A321XLRs.


A subfleet of MAX 10s should replace the 167-seat B763s on domestic missions with an international-style J. For the B763s, B764s, and the B753s, the B788 appears to be the best fit for replacement. (At least they aren't as used as some Delta B763s which are closing in on 136,000 hours.) Likewise, for the 19 B772s (and the PW frames to be converted to 362-seat configurations), a top-up B78X in a higher-density configuration would be useful, for delivery around 2026-2027 (when the P&W fleet starts to leave the fleet). The question is then what replaces the GE-powered B772 fleet.


Both the GE & PW 77Es will end up being replaced with the A350.


There will be no A350 in the UA fleet
 
kunta67
Posts: 89
Joined: Sat Jul 17, 2004 5:20 pm

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:19 pm

Just curious from a cost perspective what's the CASM if UAL ever got the A221 and A223 as the A319 replacement vs. the 737-7 Max? Does having commonality with obviously the bigger versions of the Max make up for the capacity hole between the 76 seaters and around 130?
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4743
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Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:36 pm

VV wrote:
Max Q wrote:
Remind me again about the rationale in ordering the A321N and the Max-10 ?

They’re pretty close in seat counts and isn’t the performance quite similar for this ‘regular’ A321?


I think it is just to stop any speculation saying, "Boeing gives out 737 MAX for free". or, "Airbus gives out A321neo for free."


Wait so you're trying to tell us that Boeing got United to order 70 A321neos just so people wouldn't think that they were discounting MAXs too steeply?? :shock:
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 8786
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Updated: United confirms order for 200 737MAX and 70 A321neo

Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:01 pm

kunta67 wrote:
Just curious from a cost perspective what's the CASM if UAL ever got the A221 and A223 as the A319 replacement vs. the 737-7 Max? Does having commonality with obviously the bigger versions of the Max make up for the capacity hole between the 76 seaters and around 130?


The MAX7 will be closer to 150 pax, it’s actually slightly larger than the 700.

But to answer your question, yes. United have been pretty consistent that the economics of 100 seaters won’t work for them. While a relatively small fleet, Kirby knows what the economics of the E190 were like for US Airways and American. If I had to guess, I’d say they worked well enough when the US pilots were still flying under their bankruptcy contact until the merger, but once the pilot rates were raised to AA levels the economics took a nose-dive. Delta has clearly made it work, but Kirby has been pretty consistent in saying no to a new small mainline aircraft at United.

Assuming they don’t order the A221 to unlock the pilot contract, I don’t see why they would order the A223. The commonality savings of the MAX7 would likely outweigh the cost of inducting a new type. The larger frame will somewhat negate the CASM advantage of the A223, so this isn’t a A223 v 700 comparison.

The other thing that is clear from this order is United is looking to upgauge capacity. Look at Delta, the MD88s and MD90s were back filled by 737-800 and A320s, and those frames were back filled by 737-900ERs and A321s. Despite adding the 717 and A220, in the 150+ passenger segment Delta have incrementally increased capacity. US Airways did the same, exclusively taking delivery of A321s while retiring the 737s and older A320s. After going to AA, Parker and Kirby converted all of the remaining LAA A319 order to A321s. Having done it at US/AA and watched Delta’s success, I actually wouldn’t be shocked if the A319/737-700 was predominantly replaced by MAX8, with the 800s and 900s replaced by MAX10.

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